A statistical approach to the regional use of critical loads

The premise of this paper is that: (1) effects of spatial heterogeneity of watershed response to acid deposition must be considered when models are used to set abatement policies, and (2) the evaluation of critical chemical values is a better measure off the effects of abatement policies than the comparison of deposition values to critical loads. The authors used Monte Carlo methods to apply a site-specific version of the RAINS-Lake-Model to a regional data set from The Netherlands. Statistical methods were then used to identify the important parameters affecting the spatial and temporal response, i.e. a change in pH, of watersheds to acid deposition and a subset of sensitive and insensitive watersheds were derived. The results show that the failure to subset a region into sensitive and insensitive zones may result in an erroneous estimation of the effect of abatement policies based on critical loads alone.     

A dynamic modelling approach for estimating critical loads of nitrogen based on plant community changes under a changing climate

A dynamic model of forest ecosystems was used to investigate the effects of climate change, atmospheric deposition and harvest intensity on 48 forest sites in Sweden (n = 16) and Switzerland (n = 32). The model was used to investigate the feasibility of deriving critical loads for nitrogen (N) deposition based on changes in plant community composition. The simulations show that climate and atmospheric deposition have comparably important effects on N mobilization in the soil, as climate triggers the release of organically bound nitrogen stored in the soil during the elevated deposition period. Climate has the most important effect on plant community composition, underlining the fact that this cannot be ignored in future simulations of vegetation dynamics. Harvest intensity has comparatively little effect on the plant community in the long term, while it may be detrimental in the short term following cutting. This study shows: that critical loads of N deposition can be estimated using the plant community as an indicator; that future climatic changes must be taken into account; and that the definition of the reference deposition is critical for the outcome of this estimate.     

Critical Loads and Dynamic Modelling to Assess European Areas at Risk of Acidification and Eutrophication

European critical loads and novel dynamic modelling data have been compiled under the LRTAP Convention by the Coordination Centre for Effects. In 2000 9.8% of the pan-European and 20.8% of the EU25 ecosystem area were at risk of acidification. For eutrophication (nutrient N) the areas at risk were 30.1 and 71.2%, respectively. Dynamic modelling results reveal that 95% of the area at risk of acidification could recover by 2030 provided acid deposition is reduced according to present legislation. Insight into the timing of effects of exceedances of critical loads for nutrient N necessitates the further development of dynamic models.     

Modelling and mapping long-term risks due to reactive nitrogen effects: an overview of LRTAP convention activities

Long-range transboundary air pollution has caused severe environmental effects in Europe. European air pollution abatement policy, in the framework of the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP Convention) and the European Union Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) programme, has used critical loads and their exceedances by atmospheric deposition to design emission abatement targets and strategies. The LRTAP Convention International Cooperative Programme on Modelling and Mapping Critical Loads and Levels and Air Pollution Effects, Risks and Trends (ICP M&M) generates European critical loads datasets to enable this work. Developing dynamic nitrogen flux models and using them for a prognosis and assessment of nitrogen effects remains a challenge. Further research is needed on links between nitrogen deposition effects, climate change, and biodiversity.     

Nitrogen critical loads using biodiversity-related critical limits

Critical loads are widely used in the effects-based assessment of emission reduction policies. While the impacts of acidification have diminished, there is increasing concern regarding the effects of nitrogen deposition on terrestrial ecosystems. In this context much attention has been focussed on empirical critical loads as well as simulations with linked geochemistry-vegetation models. Surprisingly little attention has been paid to adapt the widely used simple mass balance approach. This approach has the well-established benefit of easy regional applicability, while incorporating specified critical chemical criteria to protect specified receptors. As plant occurrence/biodiversity is related to both the nutrient and acidity status of an ecosystem, a single abiotic factor (chemical criterion) is not sufficient. Rather than an upper limit for deposition (i.e., critical load), linked nutrient nitrogen and acidity chemical criteria for plant occurrence result in an ‘optimal’ nitrogen and sulphur deposition envelope.     

European Critical Loads of Cadmium, Lead and Mercury and their Exceedances

Critical loads of cadmium, lead and mercury were computed by 18 countries of the LRTAP Convention. These national data were collated into a single database for the purpose of identifying sensitive areas in Europe. Computing exceedances, i.e. comparing the critical loads to atmospheric deposition, shows that cadmium was not a widespread risk in 2000, that the risk from lead deposition has decreased since 1990 but was still widespread in 2000, and that the risk from mercury remains high without much change from 1990 to 2000 in most of the countries.