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1.
The effects of air pollutants on forests around the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland were studied by measurement of the sulphur and calcium content of pine needles and evaluation of the ecological conditions of pine forests. Several parameters for pine trees and their needles were chosen as well as the species composition and condition of epiphytic lichens. Very high pine needle S- and Ca-contents were measured in the vicinity of the Narva and Slantsy plants. In this region both the acid and basic pollutant load is massive, partly neutralizing each other. It is suggested that the total load will, sooner or later, cause unexpected environmental damage. Wide 'lichen desert' areas were detected around Narva and Slantsy. Near the margins of these areas extraordinary epiphytes on pines were observed namely Xanthoria parietina (L.) Th.Fr. and red-coloured green alga Trentepohlia umbrina. They are regarded as indicators of alkaline pollution. The lowest pine needle S- and Ca-contents of the study area were measured in south-eastern Finland. The condition of pine forests and their needles was, however, better on the neighbouring Karelian Isthmus although the species number of epiphytic lichens was very low and the condition of the lichens was poor. It is suggested that these most sensitive indicators of air pollutants are damaged by pollutants from St Petersburg and Narva. Vast virgin forests of the Karelian Isthmus act as pollutant sinks reducing the effect of pollutants on trees. On the Finnish side intensive forest management has been carried on for many decades making forests and trees more sensitive to pollutants.  相似文献   

2.
Many migratory bird species have advanced their spring arrival during the latest decades, most probably due to climate change. However, studies on migratory phenology in the period before recent global warming are scarce. We have analyzed a historical dataset (1873–1917) of spring arrival to southern and central Sweden of 14 migratory bird species. In addition, we have used relative differences between historical and present-day observations (1984–2013) to evaluate the effect of latitude and migratory strategy on day of arrival over time. There was a larger change in spring phenology in short-distance migrants than in long-distance migrants. Interestingly, the results further suggest that climate change has affected the phenology of short-distance migrants more in southern than in central Sweden. The results suggest that the much earlier calculated arrival to southern Sweden among short-distance migrants mirrors a change in location of wintering areas, hence, connecting migration phenology and wintering range shifts.  相似文献   

3.
Valiela I  Bowen JL 《Ambio》2003,32(7):476-480
As global warming intensified toward the end of the 20th century, there was a northward shift in winter ranges of bird species in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. These poleward shifts were correlated to local increases in minimum winter temperatures and global temperature anomalies. This evidence, plus other recent results, suggests that during the last two decades global warming has led to massive and widespread biogeographic shifts with potentially major ecological and human consequences. Local habitat changes associated with urban sprawl affected mainly forest birds with more northern winter distributions. In Cape Cod, the effects of warming on bird distributions are more substantial at the start of the 21st century, than those of habitat alteration, but as urban sprawl continues its importance may rival that of global warming.  相似文献   

4.
The role of temperate forests in the global carbon balance is difficult to determine because many uncertainties exist in the data, and many assumptions must be made in these determinations. Still, there is little doubt that increases in atmospheric CO2 and global warming would have major effects on temperate forest ecosystems. Increases in atmospheric CO2 may result in increases in photosynthesis, changes in water and nitrogen use efficiency, and changes in carbon allocation. Indirect effects of changes in global carbon balance on regional climate and on microenvironmental conditions, particularly temperature and moisture, may be more important than direct effects of increased CO2 on vegetation. Increased incidence of forest perturbations might also be expected. The evidence suggests that conditions favorable to forest growth and development may exist in the northern latitudes, while southern latitude forests may undergo drought stress. Current harvest of temperate and world forests contributes substantial amounts of carbon to the atmosphere, possibly as much as 3 gigatons (Gt) per year. Return of this carbon to forest storage may require decades. Forest managers should be aware of the global as well as local impact their management decisions will have on the atmospheric carbon balance of the ecosystems they oversee.  相似文献   

5.
The individual of a species is the basic unit which responds to climate and UV-B changes, and it responds over a wide range of time scales. The diversity of animal, plant and microbial species appears to be low in the Arctic, and decreases from the boreal forests to the polar deserts of the extreme North but primitive species are particularly abundant. This latitudinal decline is associated with an increase in super-dominant species that occupy a wide range of habitats. Climate warming is expected to reduce the abundance and restrict the ranges of such species and to affect species at their northern range boundaries more than in the South: some Arctic animal and plant specialists could face extinction. Species most likely to expand into tundra are boreal species that currently exist as outlier populations in the Arctic. Many plant species have characteristics that allow them to survive short snow-free growing seasons, low solar angles, permafrost and low soil temperatures, low nutrient availability and physical disturbance. Many of these characteristics are likely to limit species' responses to climate warming, but mainly because of poor competitive ability compared with potential immigrant species. Terrestrial Arctic animals possess many adaptations that enable them to persist under a wide range of temperatures in the Arctic. Many escape unfavorable weather and resource shortage by winter dormancy or by migration. The biotic environment of Arctic animal species is relatively simple with few enemies, competitors, diseases, parasites and available food resources. Terrestrial Arctic animals are likely to be most vulnerable to warmer and drier summers, climatic changes that interfere with migration routes and staging areas, altered snow conditions and freeze-thaw cycles in winter, climate-induced disruption of the seasonal timing of reproduction and development, and influx of new competitors, predators, parasites and diseases. Arctic microorganisms are also well adapted to the Arctic's climate: some can metabolize at temperatures down to -39 degrees C. Cyanobacteria and algae have a wide range of adaptive strategies that allow them to avoid, or at least minimize UV injury. Microorganisms can tolerate most environmental conditions and they have short generation times which can facilitate rapid adaptation to new environments. In contrast, Arctic plant and animal species are very likely to change their distributions rather than evolve significantly in response to warming.  相似文献   

6.
Observed changes in average global temperatures over time have led to two general avenues of discussion in the environmental literature. The scientific community has concentrated on the statistical detection of global warming and the determination of biological and industrial factors causing average world temperatures to rise. A second avenue of thought considers the issue of economic abatement by attempting to measure the pecuniary costs of global warming and the elimination of factors influencing this problem. This paper concentrates not on developing an economic model of global warming and environmental damage, but rather on examining the problem from a purely statistical vantage point. Utilising annual data from 1950 to 1991 and optimally determined vector auto regression specifications, it is shown that general industrial growth and greenhouse gas emission levels statistically cause a persistent increase in average global temperatures. In addition, this analysis shows that increasing average world temperatures have a statistically significant negative causal impact on agricultural productivity. Given that global warming is a long-term process culminating from decades of industrial activity, statistically significant causal results derived in this paper using short term data are interesting. Statistical results suggest that trends in average temperatures respond to short-run fluctuations in industrial activity and population growth.  相似文献   

7.
This paper provides a concise summary of the natural and the anthropogenic greenhouse effect and the major causes for climate change. This summary may be particularly accessible for readers who are not familiar with natural sciences. Building on these explanations, we develop a simplifying atmospheric model that demonstrates a widely unknown aspect of global warming: the greenhouse effect enhances its own causes and, as a repercussion, induces a further global warming. This effect, referred to as domino effect, is based on the additional production of heat in the atmosphere, happening substantively while heat passes our atmosphere on its way to outer space. On the basis of our considerations, in principle, technological efficiency improvements appear to be an attractive measure for mitigating global warming.  相似文献   

8.
Abstract

Combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas, and to a lesser extent deforestation, land-cover change, and emissions of halocarbons and other greenhouse gases, are rapidly increasing the atmospheric concentrations of climate-warming gases. The warming of approximately 0.1–0.2 °C per decade that has resulted is very likely the primary cause of the increasing loss of snow cover and Arctic sea ice, of more frequent occurrence of very heavy precipitation, of rising sea level, and of shifts in the natural ranges of plants and animals. The global average temperature is already approximately 0.8 °C above its preindustrial level, and present atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases will contribute to further warming of 0.5–1 °C as equilibrium is re-established. Warming has been and will be greater in mid and high latitudes compared with low latitudes, over land compared with oceans, and at night compared with day. As emissions continue to increase, both warming and the commitment to future warming are presently increasing at a rate of approximately 0.2 °C per decade, with projections that the rate of warming will further increase if emission controls are not put in place. Such warming and the associated changes are likely to result in severe impacts on key societal and environmental support systems. Present estimates are that limiting the increase in global average surface temperature to no more than 2–2.5 °C above its 1750 value of approximately 15 °C will be required to avoid the most catastrophic, but certainly not all, consequences of climate change. Accomplishing this will require reducing emissions sharply by 2050 and to near zero by 2100. This can only be achieved if: (1) developed nations move rapidly to demonstrate that a modern society can function without reliance on technologies that release carbon dioxide (CO2) and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases to the atmosphere; and (2) if developing nations act in the near-term to sharply limit their non-CO2 emissions while minimizing growth in CO2 emissions, and then in the long-term join with the developed nations to reduce all emissions as cost-effective technologies are developed.  相似文献   

9.
At the last glacial maximum, vast ice sheets covered many continental areas. The beds of some shallow seas were exposed thereby connecting previously separated landmasses. Although some areas were ice-free and supported a flora and fauna, mean annual temperatures were 10-13 degrees C colder than during the Holocene. Within a few millennia of the glacial maximum, deglaciation started, characterized by a series of climatic fluctuations between about 18,000 and 11,400 years ago. Following the general thermal maximum in the Holocene, there has been a modest overall cooling trend, superimposed upon which have been a series of millennial and centennial fluctuations in climate such as the "Little Ice Age spanning approximately the late 13th to early 19th centuries. Throughout the climatic fluctuations of the last 150,000 years, Arctic ecosystems and biota have been close to their minimum extent within the most recent 10,000 years. They suffered loss of diversity as a result of extinctions during the most recent large-magnitude rapid global warming at the end of the last glacial stage. Consequently, Arctic ecosystems and biota such as large vertebrates are already under pressure and are particularly vulnerable to current and projected future global warming. Evidence from the past indicates that the treeline will very probably advance, perhaps rapidly, into tundra areas, as it did during the early Holocene, reducing the extent of tundra and increasing the risk of species extinction. Species will very probably extend their ranges northwards, displacing Arctic species as in the past. However, unlike the early Holocene, when lower relative sea level allowed a belt of tundra to persist around at least some parts of the Arctic basin when treelines advanced to the present coast, sea level is very likely to rise in future, further restricting the area of tundra and other treeless Arctic ecosystems. The negative response of current Arctic ecosystems to global climatic conditions that are apparently without precedent during the Pleistocene is likely to be considerable, particularly as their exposure to co-occurring environmental changes (such as enhanced levels of UV-B, deposition of nitrogen compounds from the atmosphere, heavy metal and acidic pollution, radioactive contamination, increased habitat fragmentation) is also without precedent.  相似文献   

10.
Simulations using global coupled climate models predict a climate change due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. Both are associated with the burning of fossil fuels. There has been considerable debate if this postulated human influence is already evident. This paper gives an overview on some recent material on this question. One particular study using optimal fingerprints (Hegerl et al., 1996) is explained in more detail. In this study, an optimal fingerprint analysis is applied to temperature trend patterns over several decades. The results show the probability being less than 5% that the most recently observed 30 year trend is due to naturally occurring climate fluctuations. This result suggests that the present warming is caused by some external influence on climate, e.g. by the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols. More work is needed to address the uncertainties in the magnitude of naturally occurring climate fluctuations. Also, other external influences on climate need to be investigated to uniquely attribute the present climate change to the human influence.  相似文献   

11.
Combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas, and to a lesser extent deforestation, land-cover change, and emissions of halocarbons and other greenhouse gases, are rapidly increasing the atmospheric concentrations of climate-warming gases. The warming of approximately 0.1-0.2 degrees C per decade that has resulted is very likely the primary cause of the increasing loss of snow cover and Arctic sea ice, of more frequent occurrence of very heavy precipitation, of rising sea level, and of shifts in the natural ranges of plants and animals. The global average temperature is already approximately 0.8 degrees C above its preindustrial level, and present atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases will contribute to further warming of 0.5-1 degrees C as equilibrium is re-established. Warming has been and will be greater in mid and high latitudes compared with low latitudes, over land compared with oceans, and at night compared with day. As emissions continue to increase, both warming and the commitment to future warming are presently increasing at a rate of approximately 0.2 degrees C per decade, with projections that the rate of warming will further increase if emission controls are not put in place. Such warming and the associated changes are likely to result in severe impacts on key societal and environmental support systems. Present estimates are that limiting the increase in global average surface temperature to no more than 2-2.5 degrees C above its 1750 value of approximately 15 degrees C will be required to avoid the most catastrophic, but certainly not all, consequences of climate change. Accomplishing this will require reducing emissions sharply by 2050 and to near zero by 2100. This can only be achieved if: (1) developed nations move rapidly to demonstrate that a modem society can function without reliance on technologies that release carbon dioxide (CO2) and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases to the atmosphere; and (2) if developing nations act in the near-term to sharply limit their non-CO2 emissions while minimizing growth in CO2 emissions, and then in the long-term join with the developed nations to reduce all emissions as cost-effective technologies are developed.  相似文献   

12.
It has been hypothesized that climate warming will allow southern species to advance north and invade northern ecosystems. We review the changes in the Swedish mammal and bird community in boreal forest and alpine tundra since the nineteenth century, as well as suggested drivers of change. Observed changes include (1) range expansion and increased abundance in southern birds, ungulates, and carnivores; (2) range contraction and decline in northern birds and carnivores; and (3) abundance decline or periodically disrupted dynamics in cyclic populations of small and medium-sized mammals and birds. The first warm spell, 1930–1960, stands out as a period of substantial faunal change. However, in addition to climate warming, suggested drivers of change include land use and other anthropogenic factors. We hypothesize all these drivers interacted, primarily favoring southern generalists. Future research should aim to distinguish between effects of climate and land-use change in boreal and tundra ecosystems.  相似文献   

13.
The detailed dynamics of epiphytic lichen communities were observed while studying permanent quadrats in the zone of influence of a phosphorus fertiliser factory in central Lithuania. The most significant changes were induced by several factors: changes in macroenvironment (increase of illumination), bark scaling, succession processes, individual growth characteristics of the community members, and influence of fungal infection and invertebrate grazing. None of these changes could be directly linked with air pollution. These observations have shown that in conditions of more or less stable pollution, epiphytic community dynamics should be evaluated with care, the best indicators of the characteristics of the communities being species richness and presence/absence and abundance of indicator (nitrophilous or acidophilous) species.  相似文献   

14.
Over the last decades much of the work on the impact of air pollution on forests in Europe has concentrated on central and northern countries. The southern part of Europe has received far less attention, although air pollutants-especially the photochemical ones-can reach concentrations likely to have adverse effects on forest vegetation. Although international forest condition surveys present serious problems where data consistency is concerned, they reveal considerable year-by-year species-specific fluctuations rather than a large-scale forest decline. Cases of obvious decline related to environmental factors are well circumscribed: (1) the deterioration of some coastal forests due to the action of polluted seaspray; (2) the deterioration of reforestation projects, especially conifers, mainly due to the poor ecological compatibility between species and site; and (3) the decline of deciduous oaks in southern Italy and of evergreen oaks in the Iberian peninsula apparently due to the interaction of climate stresses and pests and diseases. However, besides obvious deterioration, changes in environmental factors can provoke situations of more subtle stress. The most sensitive stands are Mediterranean conifer forests and mesophile forests of the Mediterranean-montane plane growing at the edges of the natural ecological distribution. Evergreen sclerophyllous forests appear less sensitive to variations in climatic parameters, since they can adapt quite well to both drought and the action of UV-B rays. Several experiments were carried out to test the sensitivity of Mediterranean forest species to air pollutants. Most of those experiments used seedlings of different species treated with pollutant concentrations too high to be realistic, so it is difficult to derive adequate information on the response of adult trees in field conditions. Ozone has been proved to cause foliar injury in a variety of native forest species in different Southern European countries, while the effects of other pollutants (e.g. nitrogen, sulphur, acidic deposition) are less obvious and likely to be very localized. In the case of ozone, visible symptoms were almost completely missed by large-scale surveys and-at the same time-non-visible symptoms are suspected to be even more widespread than the visible ones. Owing to this and to the complex relationships existing between species sensitivity, ozone exposure and doses, length of the vegetative periods, influence of climatic and edaphic condition on the tree's response, the impacted areas are yet to be identified. Therefore, the large-scale impact of air pollutants on the forests of Southern Europe remains largely unknown, until more specific investigations are carried out.  相似文献   

15.
There is a fast growing and an extremely serious international scientific, public and political concern regarding man's influence on the global climate. The decrease in stratospheric ozone (O3) and the consequent possible increase in ultraviolet-B (UV-B) is a critical issue. In addition, tropospheric concentrations of 'greenhouse gases' such as carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) are increasing. These phenomena, coupled with man's use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), chlorocarbons (CCs), and organo-bromines (OBs) are considered to result in the modification of the earth's O3 column and altered interactions between the stratosphere and the troposphere. A result of such interactions could be the global warming. As opposed to these processes, tropospheric O3 concentrations appear to be increasing in some parts of the world (e.g. North America). Such tropospheric increases in O3 and particulate matter may offset any predicted increases in UV-B at those locations. Presently most general circulation models (GCMs) used to predict climate change are one- or two-dimensional models. Application of satisfactory three-dimensional models is limited by the available computer power. Recent studies on radiative cloud forcing show that clouds may have an excess cooling effect to compensate for a doubling of global CO2 concentrations. There is a great deal of geographic patchiness or variability in climate. Use of global level average values fails to account for this variability. For example, in North America: 1. there may be a decrease in the stratospheric O3 column (1-3%); however, there appears to be an increase in tropospheric O3 concentrations (1-2%/year) to compensate up to 20-30% loss in the total O3 column; 2. there appears to be an increase in tropospheric CO2, N2O and CH4 at the rate of roughly 0.8%, 0.3% and 1-2%, respectively, per year; 3. there is a decrease in erythemal UV-B; and 4. there is a cooling of tropospheric air temperature due to radiative cloud forcing. The effects of UV-B, CO2 and O3 on plants have been studied under growth chamber, greenhouse and field conditions. Few studies, if any, have examined the joint effects of more than one variable on plant response. There are methodological problems associated with many of these experiments. Thus, while results obtained from these studies can assist in our understanding, they must be viewed with caution in the context of the real world and predictions into the future. Biomass responses of plants to enhanced UV-B can be negative (adverse effect); positive (stimulatory effect) or no effect (tolerant). Sensitivity rankings have been developed for both crop and tree species. However, such rankings for UV-B do not consider dose-response curves. There are inconsistencies between the results obtained under controlled conditions versus field observations. Some of these inconsistencies appear due to the differences in responses between cultivars and varieties of a given plant species; and differences in the experimental methodology and protocol used. Nevertheless, based on the available literature, listings of sensitive crop and native plant species to UV-B are provided. Historically, plant biologists have studied the effects of CO2 on plants for many decades. Experiments have been performed under growth chamber, greenhouse and field conditions. Evidence is presented for various plant species in the form of relative yield increases due to CO2 enrichment. Sensitivity rankings (biomass response) are agein provided for crops and native plant species. However, most publications on the numerical analysis of cause-effect relationships do not consider sensitivity analysis of the mode used. Ozone is considered to be the most phytotoxic regional scale air pollutant. In the pre-occupation of loss in the O3 column, any increases in tropospheric O3 concentrations may be undermined relative to vegetation effects. As with the other stress factors, the effects of O3 have been studied both under controlled and field conditions. Thboth under controlled and field conditions. The numerical explanation of cause-effect relationships of O3 is a much debated subject at the present time. Much of the controversy is directed toward the definition of the highly stochastic, O3 exposure dynamics in time and space. Nevertheless, sensitivity rankings (biomass response) are provided for crops and native vegetation. The joint effects of UV-B, CO2 and O3 are poorly understood. Based on the literature of plant response to individual stress factors and chemical and physical climatology of North America, we conclude that nine different crops may be sensitive to the joint effects: three grain and six vegetable crops (sorghum, oat, rice, pea, bean, potato, lettuce, cucumber and tomato). In North America, we consider Ponderosa and loblolly pines as vulnerable among tree species. This conclusion should be moderated by the fact that there are few, if any, data on hardwood species. In conclusion there is much concern for global climate change and its possible effects on vegetation. While this is necessary, such a concern and any predictions must be tempered by the lack of sufficient knowledge. Experiments must be designed on an integrated and realistic basis to answer the question more definitively. This would require very close co-operation and communication among scientists from multiple disciplines. Decision makers must realize this need.  相似文献   

16.
Moomaw WR 《Ambio》2002,31(2):184-189
Nitrogen oxides are released during atmospheric combustion of fossil fuels and biomass, and during the production of certain chemicals and products. They can react with natural or man-made volatile organic compounds to produce smog, or else can be further oxidized to produce particulate haze, or acid rain that can eutrophy land and water. The reactive nitrogen that begins in the energy sector thus cascades through the atmosphere, the hydrosphere and soils before being eventually partially denitrifed to the global warming and stratospheric ozone-depleting gas nitrous oxide or molecular nitrogen. This paper will suggest how an economic analysis of the nitrogen cycle can identify the most cost-effective places to intervene. Nitrogen oxides released during fossil-fuel combustion in vehicles, power plants and heating boilers can either be controlled by add-on emission control technology, or can be eliminated by many of the same technical options that lead to carbon dioxide reduction. These integrated strategies also address sustainability, economic development and national security issues. Similarly in industrial production, it is more effective to focus on redesigning industrial processes rather than on nitrogen oxide pollution elimination from the current system. This paper will suggest which strategies might be utilized to address multiple benefits rather than focusing on single pollutants.  相似文献   

17.
The results of a biomonitoring survey carried out in the town of Siena (central Italy) using the biodiversity of epiphytic lichens as indicator of air pollution are reported. The general picture was rather good, with more than 60% of the study area being in the categories "semi-natural" or "natural" according to a calibrated scale of environmental naturality/alteration. Compared with the situation of 1995, ameliorating conditions were found as a result of an improvement in air quality over time.  相似文献   

18.
Daniëls FJ  de Molenaar JG 《Ambio》2011,40(6):650-659
The changes in the vascular plant flora of Tasiilaq, low arctic Southeast Greenland, between around 1900 and 2007 were studied by comparing the data from historical literature with those of the field observations performed between the late 1960s and 2007. Since 1900, the percentage of widely distributed arctic species distinctly decreased, whereas that of the low arctic species somewhat increased, and boreal species hardly increased. Vegetation monitoring revealed minor changes and showed that several thermophilous and xerophilous species increased between 1968/1969 and 2007, whereas some hygrophilous species decreased. Repeated vegetation mapping of a shallow pond revealed conspicuous changes suggesting increased evaporation/precipitation ratios associated with environmental warming up and decreasing snow accumulation in winter, in line with results of previous investigations. In spite of climate warming, expansion of the town and increasing human impact, flora and vegetation on the whole appeared rather stable during the last 40 years without invading species or introductions.  相似文献   

19.
Tundra-breeding birds face diverse conservation challenges, from accelerated rates of Arctic climate change to threats associated with highly migratory life histories. Here we summarise the status and trends of Arctic terrestrial birds (88 species, 228 subspecies or distinct flyway populations) across guilds/regions, derived from published sources, raw data or, in rare cases, expert opinion. We report long-term trends in vital rates (survival, reproduction) for the handful of species and regions for which these are available. Over half of all circumpolar Arctic wader taxa are declining (51% of 91 taxa with known trends) and almost half of all waterfowl are increasing (49% of 61 taxa); these opposing trends have fostered a shift in community composition in some locations. Declines were least prevalent in the African-Eurasian Flyway (29%), but similarly prevalent in the remaining three global flyways (44–54%). Widespread, and in some cases accelerating, declines underscore the urgent conservation needs faced by many Arctic terrestrial bird species.  相似文献   

20.
This paper examines the increasingly fashionable view that vast tree plantations are a viable way of mitigating the climatic effects of industrial carbon dioxide emissions. It argues that this approach to global warming is based on bad science, enlarges rather than reduces richer societies' ecological footprint, and reinforces neo-colonialist structures of power.  相似文献   

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