A method for assessing environmental risk: A case study of Green Bay,Lake Michigan,USA

The Science Advisory Board of the US Environmental Protection Agency has recommended that risk reduction strategies become the centerpiece of environmental protection. The goal in developing such strategies is to identify opportunities for greatest reduction of ecological risks. This is a perspective that is significantly more comprehensive than the traditional focus on human health risks arising from environmental degradation. The identification of ecological risks upon which environmental protection efforts should be focused requires an ecological risk assessment methodology that is based on anthropogenic stressors affecting an ecosystem and a set of impaired use criteria. A methodology based on this concept is developed and discussed in this article. The methodology requires that risk values be assigned to each ecosystem stressor-impaired use pair that reflect the degree to which the given stressor contributes to ecosystem risk as measured by the given impaired use criterion. Once these data are available, mathematical analyses based on concepts from fuzzy set theory are performed to obtain a ranking of ecosystem stressors. The methodology has been tested by applying it to a case study involving Green Bay of Lake Michigan. A workshop was held in which 11 persons with extensive knowledge of the Green Bay ecosystem determined risk values through a group-consensus process. The analytical portion of the methodology was then used to rank the ecosystem risks (stressors) from several perspectives, including prevention management and remediation management. The overall conclusion of the workshop participants was that the fuzzy set decision model is a useful and effective methodology for differentiating environmental risk.     

Fuzzy Modeling of Interactions Among Environmental Stressors in the Ecosystem of Lake Koronia,Greece

The development of a model for assessing the impact and interactions of stressors in the ecosystem of Lake Koronia, based on fuzzy inference, is presented in this paper. The proposed fuzzy inference model assesses the synergistic interactions among several significant stressors on fish production. These stressors include industrial pollution, pesticide and nutrient usage due to agricultural activities, and water level decrease due to irrigation works. Apart from the experts knowledge, expressed in a set of fuzzy rules, a number of parameters such as pH, conductivity, biochemical and chemical oxygen demand, and nitrate concentration were used as stressor indicators. The proposed model is capable of simulating the effect of a large variety of environmental conditions, and it can be used as a dynamic tool for ecosystem risk assessment since it produces both qualitative and quantitative results, allowing for comparisons of predictions with on-going observational research and ecosystem monitoring. Its operation was successfully verified for a number of different conditions, ranging from low stressor impact to high stressor impact (where, in fact, the fish production was diminished). Moreover, the proposed fuzzy inference model can be used as a tool for the investigation of the behavior of the aquatic ecosystem under a large number of hypothetical environmental risk scenarios.     

PROFILE: Risk Assessment as an Environmental Management Tool: Considerations for Freshwater Wetlands

/ This paper presents a foundation for improving the risk assessmentprocess for freshwater wetlands. Integrating wetland science, i.e., use of anecosystem-based approach, is the key concept. Each biotic and abiotic wetlandcomponent should be identified and its contribution to ecosystem functionsand societal values determined when deciding whether a stressor poses anunreasonable risk to the sustainability of a particular wetland.Understanding the major external and internal factors that regulate theoperational conditions of wetlands is critical to risk characterization.Determining the linkages between these factors, and how they influence theway stressors affect wetlands, is the basis for an ecosystem approach.Adequate consideration of wetland ecology, hydrology, geomorphology, andsoils can greatly reduce the level of uncertainty associated with riskassessment and lead to more effective risk management. In order to formulateeffective solutions, wetland problems must be considered at watershed,landscape, and ecosystem scales. Application of an ecosystem approach can begreatly facilitated if wetland scientists and risk assessors work together todevelop a common understanding of the principles of both disciplines.KEY WORDS: Ecological risk assessment; Freshwater wetlands;Environmental pollution; Chemical stressors; Physical stressors; Biologicalstressors     

Using Ecological Risk Assessment to Identify the Major Anthropogenic Stressor in the Waquoit Bay Watershed,Cape Cod,Massachusetts

The Waquoit Bay Watershed ecological risk assessment was performed by an interdisciplinary and interagency workgroup. This paper focuses on the steps taken to formulate the analysis plan for this watershed assessment. The workgroup initially conducted a series of meetings with the general public and local and state managers to determine environmental management objectives for the watershed. The workgroup then decided that more information was needed on the impacts of six stressors: nutrient enrichment, physical alteration of habitat, altered freshwater flow, toxic chemicals, pathogens, and fisheries harvesting. Assessment endpoints were selected to establish the link between environmental management objectives, impacts of stressors, and scientifically measurable endpoints. The following assessment endpoints were selected: estuarine eelgrass cover, scallop abundance, finfish diversity and abundance, wetland bird distribution and abundance, piping plover distribution and abundance, tissue contaminant levels, and brook trout distribution and abundance in streams. A conceptual model was developed to show the pathways between human activities, stressors, and ecological effects. The workgroup analyzed comparative risks, by first ranking stressors in terms of their potential risk to biotic resources in the watershed. Then stressors were evaluated by considering the components of stressors (e.g., the stressor chemical pollution included both heavy metals and chlorinated solvents components) in terms of intensity and extensiveness. The workgroup identified nutrient enrichment as the major stressor. Nutrient enrichment comprised both phosphorus enrichment in freshwater ponds and nitrogen enrichment within estuaries. Because phosphorus impacts were being analyzed and mitigated by the Air Force Center for Environmental Excellence, this assessment focused on nitrogen. The process followed to identify the predominant stressor and focus the analyses on nitrogen impacts on eelgrass and scallops will serve as an example of how to increase the use of the findings of a watershed assessment in decision making.     

Using Relative Risk to Compare the Effects of Aquatic Stressors at a Regional Scale

The regional-scale importance of an aquatic stressor depends both on its regional extent (i.e., how widespread it is) and on the severity of its effects in ecosystems where it is found. Sample surveys, such as those developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP), are designed to estimate and compare the extents, throughout a large region, of elevated conditions for various aquatic stressors. In this article, we propose relative risk as a complementary measure of the severity of each stressor’s effect on a response variable that characterizes aquatic ecological condition. Specifically, relative risk measures the strength of association between stressor and response variables that can be classified as either “good” (i.e., reference) or “poor” (i.e., different from reference). We present formulae for estimating relative risk and its confidence interval, adapted for the unequal sample inclusion probabilities employed in EMAP surveys. For a recent EMAP survey of streams in five Mid-Atlantic states, we estimated the relative extents of eight stressors as well as their relative risks to aquatic macroinvertebrate assemblages, with assemblage condition measured by an index of biotic integrity (IBI). For example, a measure of excess sedimentation had a relative risk of 1.60 for macroinvertebrate IBI, with the meaning that poor IBI conditions were 1.6 times more likely to be found in streams having poor conditions of sedimentation than in streams having good sedimentation conditions. We show how stressor extent and relative risk estimates, viewed together, offer a compact and comprehensive assessment of the relative importances of multiple stressors.     

A conceptual model for assessing ecological risk to water quality function of bottomland hardwood forests

Ecological risk assessment provides a methodology for evaluating the threats to ecosystem function associated with environmental perturbations or stressors. This report documents the development of a conceptual model for assessing the ecological risk to the water quality function (WQF) of bottomland hardwood riparian ecosystems (BHRE) in the Tifton-Vidalia upland (TVU) ecoregion of Georgia. Previus research has demonstrated that mature BHRE are essential to maintaining water quality in this portion of the coastal plain. The WQF of these ecosystems is considered an assessment endpoit—an ecosystem function or set of functions that society chooses to value as evidenced by laws, regulations, or common usage. Stressors operate on ecosystems at risk through an exposure scenario to produce ecological effects that are linked to loss of the desired function or assessment end point. The WQF of BHRE is at risk because of the ecological and environmental quality effects of a suite of chemical, physical, and biological stressors. The stressors are related to nonpoint source pollution from adjacent land uses, especially agriculture; the conversion of BHRE to other land uses; and the encroachment of domestic animals into BHRE. Potential chemical, physical, and biological stressors to BHRE are identified, and the methodology for evaluating appropriate exposure scenarios is discussed. Field-scale and watershed-scale measurement end points of most use in assessing the effects of stressors on the WQF are identified and discussed. The product of this study is a conceptual model of how risks to the WQF of BHRE are produced and how the risk and associated uncertainties can be quantified.     

A Conceptual Framework for Selecting and Analyzing Stressor Data to Study Species Richness at Large Spatial Scales

/ In this paper we develop a conceptual framework for selectingstressor data and analyzing their relationship to geographic patterns ofspecies richness at large spatial scales. Aspects of climate and topography,which are not stressors per se, have been most strongly linked withgeographic patterns of species richness at large spatial scales (e.g.,continental to global scales). The adverse impact of stressors (e.g., habitatloss, pollution) on species has been demonstrated primarily on much smallerspatial scales. To date, there has been a lack of conceptual developmenton how to use stressor data to study geographic patterns of speciesrichness at large spatial scales.The framework we developed includes four components: (1) clarification of theterms stress and stressor and categorization of factors affecting speciesrichness into three groups-anthropogenic stressors, natural stressors, andnatural covariates; (2) synthesis of the existing hypotheses for explaininggeographic patterns of species richness to identify the scales over whichstressors and natural covariates influence species richness and to providesupporting evidence for these relationships through review of previousstudies; (3) identification of three criteria for selection of stressor andcovariate data sets: (a) inclusion of data sets from each of the threecategories identified in item 1, (b) inclusion of data sets representingdifferent aspects of each category, and (c) to the extent possible, analysisof data quality; and (4) identification of two approaches for examiningscale-dependent relationships among stressors, covariates, and patterns ofspecies richness-scaling-up and regression-tree analyses.Based on this framework, we propose 10 data sets as a minimum data base forexamining the effects of stressors and covariates on species richness atlarge spatial scales. These data sets include land cover, roads, wetlands(numbers and loss), exotic species, livestock grazing, surface water pH,pesticide application, climate (and weather), topography, and streams.KEY WORDS: Anthropogenic impacts; Biodiversity; Environmental gradients;Geographic information systems; Hierarchy     

The value of open ocean ecosystems: A case study for the Spanish exclusive economic zone

Valuing goods and services from open oceans provides arguments for the ocean's protection and plays an increasingly important role in debates on the use and management of natural resources. This paper identifies and estimates the monetary value of some of the most important goods and services provided by open oceans. The list of goods and services considered includes food production, raw materials, water supply, CO₂ regulation, bioremediation of waste, biomass and biodiversity conservation. Therefore, not only values associated with productive uses are quantified but also values assigned to other biological ecosystem services. This paper constitutes a first attempt in the open ocean literature at evaluating services such as water supply, biomass and biodiversity conservation. To obtain their monetary value, different techniques, some not applied before in this area, have been used depending on the ecosystem service to be evaluated. As a general criterion we use the concept of net value added (revenues obtained from the services less incurred costs). Our methodology is illustrated by estimating the monetary values of goods and services provided by the open ocean ecosystem of Spain as defined by its exclusive economic zone. The total economic value obtained measures the contribution of oceans to overall welfare and it may be an important instrument in managing open ocean ecosystems and developing environmental policies in the future.     

Improving the TMDL Process Using Watershed Risk Assessment Principles

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) evaluates potential causal relationships between multiple sources and stressors and impacts on valued ecosystem components. ERAs applied at the watershed scale have many similarities to the place-based analyses that are undertaken to develop Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs), in which linkages are established between stressors, sources, and water quality standards, including support of designated uses. TMDLs focus on achieving water quality standards associated with attainment of designated uses. In attempting to attain the water quality standard, many TMDLs focus on the stressor of concern rather than the ecological endpoint or indicators of the designated use that the standard is meant to protect. A watershed ecological risk assessment (WERA), at least in theory, examines effects of most likely stressors, as well as their probable sources in the watershed, to prioritize management options that will most likely result in meeting environmental goals or uses. Useful WERA principles that can be applied to TMDL development include: development and use of comprehensive conceptual models in the Problem Identification step of TMDLs; use of a transparent process for selecting Numeric Targets for TMDLs based on assessment endpoints derived from the management goal or designated use under consideration; analysis of co-occurring stressors likely to cause beneficial use impairment based on the conceptual model; use of explicit uncertainty analyses in the Linkage Analysis step of TMDL development; and frequent stakeholder interactions throughout the process. WERA principles are currently most applicable to those TMDLs in which there is no numeric standard and, therefore, indicators and targets need to be developed, such as many nutrient or sediment TMDLs. WERA methods can also be useful in determining TMDL targets in situations where simply targeting the water quality standard may re-attain the numeric criterion but not the broader designated use. Better incorporation of problem formulation principles from WERA into the TMDL development process would be helpful in improving the scientific rigor of TMDLs.     

The study of a method of regional environmental risk assessment

Regional environmental risk assessment can be defined as risk assessment which deals with a spatial scale that contains multiple habitats with multiple sources of many stressors affecting multiple endpoints. The characteristics of the landscape also affect the estimated risk. In this paper, an information diffusion method based on a grid system is proposed to assess regional environmental risk. The risk information on a single environmental risk source can be diffused effectively by using fuzzy set theory. Regional environmental risk values obtained from information diffusion can be clustered on classification criteria and different environmental risk levels can be depicted in a spatial partition map. Huangge Town and Nansha Town located in the Nansha Area of Guangzhou City in China were selected as model cases. The results derived from this information diffusion method will help the local government to optimize the distribution of industrial areas and establish risk prevention measurements and emergency management procedures.     

A Rapid Decision-Making Method for the Evaluationof Pollution-Sensitive Coastal Areas in the Mediterranean Sea

Places of natural beauty and/or cultural value in the Mediterranean Sea are presenting adverse effects due to pollution. These environmental threats caused by point and nonpoint sources are mainly the reason why these areas represent “pollution-sensitive areas,” where the risk of deterioration is immediate. However, the risk will decrease and eventually disappear if protective measures are applied. In the present article, a multicriteria decision-making method is proposed for the prioritization of the Mediterranean sensitive coastal areas, taking into consideration criteria of pollution risk such as impact on human health, aquatic ecosystems, and socioeconomic value of the area. Weighting factors were then attributed to the different criteria according to their regional priorities, and a total pollution risk score was calculated for every sensitive area. However, some sensitive areas are more vulnerable than others because of their natural characteristics. Therefore, the total pollution risk score was then multiplied by a vulnerability weighting factor and a Total Sensitivity Score was calculated for every sensitive area. With this method, Mediterranean sensitive areas in coastal zones can be ranked on a priority list and then categorized according to their “sensitivity,” in a way that decision-makers can select the most urgent cases to direct their attention for the effective protection of the Mediterranean marine environment. The method is rapid and practicable and has already been used with existing data and information in several Mediterranean countries.     

Objective exposure to road traffic noise,noise annoyance and self-rated poor health – framing the relationship between noise and health as a matter of multiple stressors and resources in urban neighbourhoods

Borrowing from concepts of socio-environmental epidemiology and psychology, we conceived self-rated health as a function of multiple physical and psychosocial stressors and resources at the residential neighbourhood and individual level. In this model of multiple stressors, objective exposure to road traffic noise was specified as a physical stressor whose effect on health may be mediated and modified by residents’ subjective response to noise (serious noise annoyance). Self-reported hearing disability, recreational coping in green areas and residential neighbourhood satisfaction were examined as additional psychosocial stressors or resources, independently of socio-demographic and -economic factors. Results from our empirical analysis based on two studies and multivariable logistic regressions might support the idea that environmental planning should overcome sectoral boundaries and adopt an integrative approach including objective exposures, residents’ subjective responses, and perceived resources.     

ASSESSING RELATIVE RISKS TO AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS: A MID-APPALACHIAN CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: Aquatic monitoring aims to assess the condition of aquatic habitats and biota. To make statements about condition, the range of human activities and the risks they pose to aquatic ecosystems must be identified. Assessing relative risk and placing sample sites on a human disturbance gradient is necessary for interpreting biological response and distinguishing human disturbance from natural controls in aquatic systems. We describe a process that uses readily available sources, such as topographic maps, aerial photographs, and field information, to identify and prioritize stream reach and watershed stressors for 102 streams in the mid-Appalachian region of the United States. All perceptible human alterations to riparian and upland areas along with their number, type, intensity, and extent of impact were recorded and ranked; a relative risk index was developed to assign scores to the watersheds. The resulting risk index scores were consistent with measures of stream condition based on water chemistry and benthic macroinvertebrates. The risk index gives a cost-effective, regional picture of the relative risk of impairment to aquatic ecosystems in the mid-Appalachian region of the USA and could be modified for other regions or ecosystem types.     

Ecosystem approaches to environmental quality assessment

Environmental quality assessment has to focus more on the quality of whole ecosystems, instead of focusing on the direct effects of a specific stressor, because of a more integrated environmetal policy approach. Yet, how can the ecosystem quality be measured? Partly this is a normative question, a question of what is considered good and bad. At the same time, it is a scientific question, dealing with the problem of low the state of a system as complex as an ecosystem could be measured. Measuring all abiotic and biotic components, not to mention their many relationships, is not feasible. In this article we review several approaches dealing with this scientific question. Three approaches are distinguished; they differ in type of variable set and ecosystem model used. As a result of this, the information about the state of the ecosystem differs: ultimate breadth, comprising information about the whole ecosystem, is at the expense of detail, while ultimate detail is at the expense of breadth. We discuss whether the resultant quality assessments differ in character and are therefore suitable to answer different policy questions.     

Valuing New Jersey’s Ecosystem Services and Natural Capital: A Spatially Explicit Benefit Transfer Approach

We intend to estimate the value of ecosystem services in the U.S. State of New Jersey using spatially explicit benefit transfer. The aggregated net rent, a conservative underestimate for the total economic value of the state’s natural environment, ranged from 11.6 to11.6 to 19.6 billion/year, conditional on how inclusive we were in selecting the primary studies used to calculate the central tendency values to transfer. In addition to calculating the range, mean, and standard deviation for each of 12 ecosystem services for 11 Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) types, we also conduct a gap analysis of how well ecosystem service values are represented in the literature. We then map these values by assuming a mean value for each LULC and apply this to spatial data. As to sensitivity analysis, we calculate the net present value of New Jersey’s natural environment utilizing three different methods of discounting. These research results provide a useful, albeit imperfect, basis for assessing the value of ecosystem services and natural capital, and their comparison with the value of conventional human and built capitals.     

Quantifying and Evaluating Ecosystem Health: A Case Study from Moreton Bay, Australia

As part of the program monitoring the ecosystem health of Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia, we developed a means for assessing ecosystem health that allows quantitative evaluation and spatial representations of the assessments. The management objectives for achieving ecosystem health were grouped into ecosystem objectives, water quality objectives, and human health objectives. For the first two groups, aspects of the ecosystem (e.g., trophic status) were identified, and an indicator was chosen for each aspect. Reference values for each indicator were derived from management objectives and compared with the mapped survey values. Subregions for which the indicator statistic was equal to or better than the assigned reference value are referred to as “compliant zones.” High-resolution surface maps were created from spatial predictions on a fine hexagonal grid for each of the indicators. Eight reporting subregions were established based on the depth and predicted residence times of the water. Within each reporting subregion, the proportion that was compliant was calculated. These results then were averaged to create an integrated ecosystem health index. The ratings by a team of ecosystem experts and the calculated ecosystem health indices had good correspondence, providing assurance that the approach was internally consistent, and that the management objectives covered the relevant biologic issues for the region. This method of calculating and mapping ecosystem health, relating it directly to management objectives, may have widespread applicability for ecosystem assessment.     

A nonlinear model for assessing multiple probabilistic risks: a case study in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve in China

Several methods for estimating the potential impacts caused by multiple probabilistic risks have been suggested. These existing methods mostly rely on the weight sum algorithm to address the need for integrated risk assessment. This paper develops a nonlinear model to perform such an assessment. The joint probability algorithm has been applied to the model development. An application of the developed model in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve, China, combining remote sensing data and a GIS technique, provides a reasonable risk assessment. Based on the case study, we discuss the feasibility of the model. We propose that the model has the potential for use in identifying the regional primary stressor, investigating the most vulnerable habitat, and assessing the integrated impact of multiple stressors.     

Assessment of the Water Quality and Ecosystem Health of the Great Barrier Reef (Australia): Conceptual Models

Run-off containing increased concentrations of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides from land-based anthropogenic activities is a significant influence on water quality and the ecologic conditions of nearshore areas of the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area, Australia. The potential and actual impacts of increased pollutant concentrations range from bioaccumulation of contaminants and decreased photosynthetic capacity to major shifts in community structure and health of mangrove, coral reef, and seagrass ecosystems. A detailed conceptual model underpins and illustrates the links between the main anthropogenic pressures or threats (dry-land cattle grazing and intensive sugar cane cropping) and the production of key contaminants or stressors of Great Barrier Reef water quality. The conceptual model also includes longer-term threats to Great Barrier Reef water quality and ecosystem health, such as global climate change, that will potentially confound direct model interrelationships. The model recognises that system-specific attributes, such as monsoonal wind direction, rainfall intensity, and flood plume residence times, will act as system filters to modify the effects of any water-quality system stressor. The model also summarises key ecosystem responses in ecosystem health that can be monitored through indicators at catchment, riverine, and marine scales. Selected indicators include riverine and marine water quality, inshore coral reef and seagrass status, and biota pollutant burdens. These indicators have been adopted as components of a long-term monitoring program to enable assessment of the effectiveness of change in catchment-management practices in improving Great Barrier Reef (and adjacent catchment) water quality under the Queensland and Australian Governments’ Reef Water Quality Protection Plan.