From the ground up: holistic management and grassroots rural adaptation to bovine spongiform encephalopathy across western Canada

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) has been documented in 28 countries and adversely affected farmers and rural communities around the world. Our study examines the impacts of and adaptive responses of producers to BSE in western Canada. Moreover, it explores the role that holistic management (HM), and its combined focus on environmental, social, and economic sustainability, might play in mitigating the effects of BSE. One survey was sent to 835 HM producers and another to 9,740 producers across Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta. The disease, and concomitant climate change and low commodity prices, had devastating impacts on both groups. Yet, HM producers were much more optimistic about their ability to adapt to BSE and the future of agriculture than their non-HM counterparts. Social networks, namely HM clubs and the larger HM community, enabled these producers to mitigate the impacts of BSE. Agronomic responses, especially those associated with rotational grazing and increases in on-farm biodiversity were also important. That HM has been such an effective adaptive response to BSE indicates the importance of this and other grassroots responses to rural crises, whether they be associated with zoonotic diseases or indeed environmental change as a whole.     

Artificial neural networks models for predicting effective drought index: Factoring effects of rainfall variability

Though most factors that trigger droughts cannot be prevented, accurate, relevant and timely forecasts can be used to mitigate their impacts. Drought forecasts must define the droughts severity, onset, cessation, duration and spatial distribution. Given the high probability of droughts occurrence in Kenya, her heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture and lack of effective drought mitigation strategies, the country is highly vulnerable to impacts of droughts. Current drought forecasting approaches used in Kenya are not able to provide short and long term forecasts and they fall short of providing the severity of the drought. In this paper, a combination of Artificial Neural Networks and Effective Drought Index is presented as a potential candidate for addressing these drawbacks. This is demonstrated using forecasting models that were built using weather data for thirty years for four weather stations (representing 3 agro-ecological zones) in Kenya. Experiments varying various input/output combinations were carried out and drought forecasting network models were implemented in Matrix Laboratory’s (MATLAB) Neural Network Toolbox. The models incorporate forecasted rainfall values in order to mitigate for unexpected extreme climate variations. With accuracies as high as 98 %, the solution is a great enhancement to the solutions currently in use in Kenya.     

基于水资源供需平衡机制的安徽省干旱时空分布

基于目前大多数干旱研究偏于气象、水文和农业干旱,不能较好地反映供求矛盾,论文根据水资源供需成因的旱情评价方法,对安徽省2001-2005年的旱情时空分布进行了综合分析。研究发现,在时间上,安徽省2001和2005两年同为中度干旱,但差别甚大,平水年份的2005年的旱情等级数(Drought Index,DI)(1.485 9)却远高于偏枯的2001年(DI 0.890 9);在空间上,平水年份的2005年总体为中度干旱,但各地市区域差异明显,经济发展水平较高、用水量大的城市干旱严重(如合肥、淮南、马鞍山、芜湖市等)。淮北(DI -0.146 1,无旱)与芜湖(DI 2.466 2,严重干旱)两市水资源自然量和人口数量都相当,但旱情迥异。研究发现,造成上述旱情差异的根本原因是由于社会经济发展水平的差异而引起的水资源供需量的巨大差别。研究认为,在现代的社会背景下,单独的气象干旱、农业干旱和水文干旱已不能全面反映旱情状况,而社会经济干旱对旱情的描述更为直观,采用水资源供需平衡机制对旱情的评价也更符合实际。     

Adaptations to climate change,drought and desertification: local insights to enhance policy in southern Africa

The impacts of climate change, drought and desertification are closely interlinked, and most acutely experienced by populations whose livelihoods depend principally on natural resources. Given the increases in extreme weather events projected to affect the Southern Africa region, it is essential to assess how household and community-level adaptations have been helped or hindered by institutional structures and national policy instruments. In particular, there is a need to reflect on efforts related to the United Nations’ environmental conventions to ensure that policies support the maintenance of local adaptations and help retain the resilience of socio-economic and environmental systems. This paper examines three interlinked drivers of adaptation: climate change, desertification and drought, assessing the extent to which international and national policy supports local adaptive strategies in three countries in southern Africa. We show that while common ground exists between desertification and climate change adaptations at the policy level, they are insufficiently mainstreamed within broader development approaches. Similarly, there are some overlaps between policy-driven and autonomous local adaptations, but the mutually supportive links between them are poorly developed. Further efforts to integrate local adaptation strategies within policy could increase local resilience to environmental change, while also contributing to wider development goals.     

Water resources management strategy for adaptation to droughts in China

Water Scarcity and drought are recurrent phenomena in China. In the context of environmental change, an increasing tendency in drought frequency and severity is observed in China in recent years. Therefore, it is imperative to take necessary initiatives to reduce the impacts of drought. In this paper, an attempt is made to identify the best water management strategies to cope with droughts. For this objective the records of historical droughts and their impacts in China over the period of 1950?C2009 are analyzed. It is observed that the drought affected area has increased nearly by 12 folds and the drought damaged area has increased by about 22 times in China in last 60?years. Over 87,000 reservoirs were built with a total water storage capacity of about 7,064 billion m³ to cope with droughts. However, this structural supply-based management strategy was not enough to meet the increasing water demand caused by rapid economic development and population growth. A typical relationship between socio-economic development and water resources management strategy to attain sustainability in water management is developed in this study. The relationship shows that the demand-side water management strategies can be the best option to meet the challenges posed by increased severity of drought, population growth, economic development and possible climate change. The concept is later verified through the analysis of changing pattern of water consumptions by different sectors in last 60?years.     

Adaptation investments: a resource allocation framework

Additional finance for adaptation is an important element of the emerging international climate change framework. This paper discusses how adaptation funding may be allocated among developing countries in a transparent, efficient and equitable way. We propose an approach based on three criteria: the climate change impacts experienced in a country, a country’s adaptive capacity and its implementation capacity. Physical impact and adaptive capacity together determine a country’s vulnerability to climate change. It seems both efficient and fair that countries which are more vulnerable should have a stronger claim on adaptation resources. The third dimension, implementation capacity, introduces a measure of adaptation effectiveness. Rough indicators are proposed for each of the three dimensions. The results are indicative only, but they suggest a strong focus of initial adaptation funding on Africa. African countries are highly vulnerability in part because of the severity of expected impacts, but also because of their very low adaptive capacity. However, their implementation capacity is also limited, suggesting a need for technical assistance in project implementation.     

Socio-economic impacts of climate change on rural United States

Directly or indirectly, positively or negatively, climate change will affect all sectors and regions of the United States. The impacts, however, will not be homogenous across regions, sectors, population groups or time. The literature specifically related to how climate change will affect rural communities, their resilience, and adaptive capacity in the United States (U.S.) is scarce. This article bridges this knowledge gap through an extensive review of the current state of knowledge to make inferences about the rural communities vulnerability to climate change based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios. Our analysis shows that rural communities tend to be more vulnerable than their urban counterparts due to factors such as demography, occupations, earnings, literacy, poverty incidence, and dependency on government funds. Climate change impacts on rural communities differs across regions and economic sectors; some will likely benefit while others lose. Rural communities engaged in agricultural and forest related activities in the Northeast might benefit, while those in the Southwest and Southeast could face additional water stress and increased energy cost respectively. Developing adaptation and mitigation policy options geared towards reducing climatic vulnerability of rural communities is warranted. A set of regional and local studies is needed to delineate climate change impacts across rural and urban communities, and to develop appropriate policies to mitigate these impacts. Integrating research across disciplines, strengthening research-policy linkages, integrating ecosystem services while undertaking resource valuation, and expanding alternative energy sources, might also enhance coping capacity of rural communities in face of future climate change.     

Climate change and Ontario forests: Prospects for building institutional adaptive capacity

Institutions play an important role in the adaptive capacity of a system in responding to climate change. This review paper characterizes the status of the collective institutional response (government, industry, First Nation, community, civil society) to climate change in the forest sector of the Canadian province of Ontario, and highlights the presence and nature of inter-institutional networks as part of the response. Based on a synthesis of the commonalities in the public administration and policy literature on tackling wicked problems, and the resilience literature, inter-institutional networks, which foster exchange of different types of knowledge, are an important aspect of enhancing the adaptive capacity of social–ecological systems such as the forest sector. Based on a content analysis of publicly available documents and insights gained from representatives of government, community members and non-governmental organizations, mitigation and adaptations strategies are described. At the provincial level there have been some new innovations in inter-institutional networks, but expansion of the forest stakeholders involved in such networks would further enhance adaptive capacity. In particular, it is important to network with First Nations and other forest-dependent communities who have a heightened vulnerability to climate change. The presence of a collaborative capacity builder could foster the transfer, receipt and integration of knowledge across the networks, and ultimately build long-term collaborative problem-solving capacity in the Ontario forest sector.

气候变化背景下贵州省农作物生长期干旱时空变化规律

以干旱高发区贵州省为研究对象,利用贵州省19个站点1960—2013年气象日值资料,考虑气象干旱累积效应及当地秋收农作物生长时期需水要求,验证了秋收作物生育期内标准降水蒸散指数（Sep-SPEI-6）与粮食减产量之间的相关性。基于Sep-SPEI-6指数采用Mann-Kendall法、滑动t检验、Morlet小波周期分析以及Hurst指数等方法分析了贵州省干旱时空变化特征。结果表明：① Sep-SPEI-6与贵州省及各州、市粮食减产量呈极显著负相关性。② 在1991、2001年前后贵州省气候发生了突变。③ 与第一阶段（1960—1991年）相比,第二阶段（1992—2001年）干旱发生频率和影响范围均减少了10.59%;较第二阶段,第三阶段（2002—2013年）分别增加了23.67%和24.74%;与前两阶段相比,第三阶段的干旱历时与强度增加显著。④ Sep-SPEI-6时间序列存在明显的周期性振荡特征,以22 a为第1主周期。⑤ 各站点Sep-SPEI-6的Hurst数值均大于0.5,说明其变化具有较好的持续性。⑥ 干旱易发区呈现由东向西的转移趋势。⑦ 农作物生长期内日降水>1 mm天数和日照总时数是影响农作物生长期干旱的主要气象因素。研究成果为贵州省抗旱减灾措施的制定提供了理论依据。     

长江中下游区域生态系统对极端降水的脆弱性评估研究

气候变化背景下,极端气候事件对生态系统的影响更甚于气候平均态的变化,对极端气候事件的影响评估及机理研究有更为重要的现实意义。研究以极端降水为例,选择我国旱涝频繁的长江中下游地区为研究对象,基于生态系统过程模型的动态模拟,选择与极端降水显著相关的生态系统功能特征量,根据IPCC脆弱性的定义,以生态系统功能特征量偏离多年平均状况的程度及其变化趋势分别定义系统对极端降水的敏感性和适应性,从而评估其脆弱性。研究表明,长江中下游地区生态系统多年平均脆弱度为轻度脆弱,轻度脆弱及以下地区占区域总面积的大半,约65%,脆弱度较高的区域占20%,主要分布在长江中下游的西北部。极端降水会增加长江中下游区域生态系统的脆弱度,多表现为不脆弱转变为轻度脆弱,中度脆弱及以上的生态系统所占比例变化不大。干旱和洪涝对区域内生态系统脆弱度的分布格局影响不大,但干旱的影响程度高于洪涝。不论是干旱还是洪涝,区域内生态系统的脆弱度在灾害过后的下一个生长季能基本恢复,没有连年灾害的情况下,长江中下游区域的旱涝灾害对生态系统的影响不会持续到下一年度。     

Climate change,adaptive capacity and policy direction in the Canadian North: Can we learn anything from the collapse of the east coast cod fishery?

Scientific evidence gathered over the past five years suggests that northern Canada and the Arctic have undergone, and are undergoing, formidable environmental changes linked to global climate change. Environmental change in the north is expected to persist and intensify over the course of the next century. When large-scale environmental changes take place, they inevitably affect people, especially when the cultures and livelihoods of those people depend on their relationship with the environment. Managing the local impacts of these changes is a matter of adaptation. This paper discusses some of the policy implications of adaptation––government interventions aiming to build communities’ and regions’ capacities to adapt to environmental changes. Three arguments for adaptive capacity building interventions in the north are discussed, and these arguments are augmented by a comparative review of government reactions to the collapse of the cod fishery in Atlantic Canada. Reactive and proactive policy approaches are discussed, and it is suggested from the comparison that proactive approaches to intervention are desirable for building adaptive capacity.

基于土壤系统结构的喀斯特流域水文干旱分析——以贵州省为例

干旱是全球性普遍发生的一种自然现象,而喀斯特流域水文干旱不能简单归因于“气候异常、降水量减少”。论文将利用面向对象分类技术,提取土壤类型、土壤相对覆盖度、土壤相对粗糙度、土壤相对湿度的遥感信息;从土壤系统结构与土壤系统功能的关系角度,分析土壤单因素单因子、单因素双因子耦合以及多因素耦合对流域水文干旱影响。研究表明:①土壤单因素单因子对流域水文干旱影响,即是土壤通道对降雨的土壤径流影响的体现;②土壤单因素双因子耦合对流域水文干旱影响,取决于其单因子对流域水文干旱影响的程度;③土壤多因素耦合对流域水文干旱影响,即是土壤通道耦合对降雨的土壤径流影响的综合体现。因此,通过论文的研究,从土壤系统结构的角度,揭示了流域水文干旱的驱动机制,为喀斯特地区水资源的利用提供了理论基础。     

Using adaptive governance to rethink the way science supports Australian drought policy

In this paper we show how ideas from a longstanding but little recognised literature on adaptive governance can be used to rethink the way science supports Australian drought policy. We compare and contrast alternative ways of using science to support policy in order to critique traditional commentary on Australian drought policy. We find that criticism from narrow disciplinary and institutional perspectives has provided few practical options for policy makers managing these complex and interacting goals. In contrast, ideas from a longstanding but little recognised literature on adaptive governance have potential to create innovative policy options for addressing the multiple interacting goals of Australian drought policy.From an adaptive governance perspective, the deep concern held by Australian society for rural communities affected by drought can be viewed as a common property resource that can be sustainably managed by governments in cooperation with rural communities. Managing drought assistance as a common property resource can be facilitated through nested and polycentric systems of governance similar to those that have already evolved in other arenas of natural resource management in Australia, such as Landcare groups and Catchment Management Authorities. Essential to delivering these options is the creation of flexible, regionally distributed scientific support for drought policy capable of integrating local knowledge and informing the livelihood outcomes of critical importance to governments and rural communities.     

The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change: Part II—Integrating impacts with adaptive capacity

In the first paper in this series [Nelson, R., Kokic, P., Crimp, S., Martin, P., Meinke, H., Howden, S.M. (2010, this issue)], we concluded that hazard/impact modelling needs to be integrated with holistic measures of adaptive capacity in order to provide policy-relevant insights into the multiple and emergent dimensions of vulnerability. In this paper, we combine hazard/impact modelling with an holistic measure of adaptive capacity to analyse the vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change. Bioeconomic modelling was used to model the exposure and sensitivity of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change. Rural livelihoods analysis was used as a conceptual framework to construct a composite index of adaptive capacity using farm survey data. We then show how this integrated measure of vulnerability provides policy-relevant insights into the constraints and options for building adaptive capacity in rural communities. In the process, we show that relying on hazard/impact modelling alone can lead to entirely erroneous conclusions about the vulnerability of rural communities, with potential to significantly misdirect policy intervention. We provide a preliminary assessment of which Australian rural communities are vulnerable to climate variability and change, and reveal a complex set of interacting environmental, economic and social factors contributing to vulnerability.     

The role of fish and fisheries in recovering from natural hazards: Lessons learned from Vanuatu

Coastal fisheries provide staple food and sources of livelihood in Pacific Island countries, and securing a sustainable supply is recognised as a critical priority for nutrition security. This study sought to better understand the role of fish for Pacific Island communities during disasters and in disaster recovery. To evaluate community impacts and responses after natural disasters, focus group discussions were held with men and women groups at ten sites across Shefa, Tafea, Malampa and Sanma provinces in Vanuatu. The combined impacts of category 5 Tropical Cyclone Pam (TC-Pam) in March 2015 and prolonged El-Niño induced drought have had a profound impact across much of Vanuatu. Terrestrial systems had been disproportionately impacted with substantial shortages in drinking water, garden crops, cash crops and damage to infrastructure. Localized impacts were noted on marine environments from TC-Pam and the drought, along with an earthquake that uplifted reef and destroyed fishing grounds in Malampa province. Communities in Malampa and Shefa provinces also noted a crown-of-thorns outbreak that caused coral mortality. The significant reduction in terrestrial-based food and income generation capacity generally led to increased reliance on marine resources to cope and a shift in diets from local garden food to rice. However, limited market access, lack of fishing skills and technology in many sectors of the community reduced the capacity for marine resources to support recovery. A flexible management approach allowed protected areas and species to be utilized as reservoirs of food and income when temporarily opened to assist recovery. These findings illustrate that fish and fisheries management is at the center of disaster preparedness and relief strategies in remote Pacific Island communities. High physical capital (e.g. infrastructure, water tanks and strong dwellings) is key for disaster preparedness, but supporting community social capital for the purpose of natural resource management and human capital for diverse adaptation skills can also improve community resilience. Recognizing the humanitarian value that well managed fisheries resources and skilled fishers can play to disaster relief adds another dimension to the imperative of improving management of coastal fisheries and aligning policies across sectors.     

Typologies of crop-drought vulnerability: an empirical analysis of the socio-economic factors that influence the sensitivity and resilience to drought of three major food crops in China (1961–2001)

Why is it that sometimes small droughts trigger serious crop losses while in other cases even large droughts do not have such a major effect? In this paper, we identify socio-economic indicators associated with sensitivity and resilience to drought for each of China's main grain crops (rice, wheat and corn). Provincial harvest and rainfall data (1961–2001) are used to calculate an annual “crop-drought vulnerability index”. We separate “sensitive cases” (where significant harvest losses occurred in years with only minor droughts) and “resilient cases” (where harvest losses were minimal despite there being a major drought) and explore the socio-economic characteristics of these different situations. Results show that sensitive cases were particularly common in economically poor landlocked provinces and in wealthy coastal areas that have a limited land base. In such “sensitive cases”, the size of the rural population and the quantity of agricultural inputs were negatively correlated with drought vulnerability, while for resilient cases, vulnerability was negatively correlated with the abundance of land. This leads us to propose a series of drought-vulnerability typologies based on the extent to which land, labour, capital, agricultural technology, and infrastructure buffer or exacerbate the effect of a drought event.     

基于多源数据的干旱监测指数对比研究——以西南地区为例

干旱作为一种时常发生的自然灾害,影响范围广,对农业和粮食安全、人类生活等有深远影响。目前常用的干旱监测指数,都有各自的优缺点,无法适用于所有类型的干旱。论文利用基于气象要素驱动数据集的SPI（Standardized Precipitation Index）、基于MODIS（Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer）的ESI（Evaporative Stress Index）、ETI（Evapotranspiration Index）和基于GRACE（Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment）观测数据的水储量变化TWSC（Terrestrial Water Storage Changes）,对西南地区2005—2014年间的干旱情况进行分析,对比了几种不同数据源下的干旱监测指标的监测效果。结果表明：1）4种干旱监测指标对西南地区的干旱都较为敏感,其中6个月尺度的SPI（即SPI-6）与3个月尺度的ESI（即ESI-3）相关性相对最强（R²=0.431, P<0.01）;2）基于GRACE的水储量变化受全局性大干旱的影响较大,且秋冬比夏天的影响大;3）SPI-6、ESI-3、ETI-3能够较为准确地监测出干旱的空间分布及干旱过程中重心的移动,ETI-3在2009—2010年的干旱中有明显滞后,SPI-6则在干旱末期夸大干旱严重程度。     

基于标准化降水蒸散指数的陕西省近50 a干旱特征分析

基于陕西省18 个气象站点1961-2010 年实测气象资料,利用标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),通过计算各站历年逐月的SPEI 指数值,统计近50 a 各站点出现的干旱过程,分析了陕西省历年、历年各季及月尺度上的干旱发生频率、覆盖面积和干旱发生强度,揭示了陕西省干旱发生的时空和强度演变特征。研究结果表明,近50 a 来陕西省干旱发生频率呈明显的增长趋势,尤其是1990 年以来的近20 a;陕西省在年、春、夏、秋、冬及月尺度上均有干旱发生。其中,秋季干旱最为严重,春季次之。在年代际变化方面,全省以20 世纪90 年代干旱最为严重,2000 年以来的干旱次之;干旱出现既有全省性的大范围干旱,也有区域性的局部干旱,分布极不均匀,总体分布特征是北多南少;干旱发生强度分布呈现出关中最强、陕南次之、陕北最弱的特点。     

CANADA'S EXPERIENCE IN DEVELOPING A NATIONAL DISASTER MITIGATION STRATEGY: A DELIBERATIVE DIALOGUE APPROACH

Canada is vulnerable to a wide range of natural and human-induced disasters. Recent experience with major natural disasters demonstrated that more needs to be done to protect Canadians from the impacts of future disasters. The Government of Canada, through the Department of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada, has conducted consultations with provinces, territories and stakeholders to develop a national disaster mitigation strategy (NDMS) aimed at enhancing Canada's capacity to prevent disasters before they occur and promoting the development of disaster-resilient communities. This paper provides an overview of Canada's emergency management and hazards context. It reports on the preliminary findings of consultations with stakeholders and evaluates the usefulness of the deliberative dialogue methodology that was used to facilitate the consultations. Examples that are illustrative of recent Canadian efforts on disaster mitigation and the challenges respecting the development and future implementation of a NDMS are also discussed.     

Adapting to droughts in Yuanyang Terrace of SW China: insight from disaster risk reduction

Despite international focus on how to facilitate adaptation to droughts in a changing climate, a good deal of adaptation will be enacted at the local level. Focusing on the Yuanyang Terrace of SW China (a very famous agricultural heritage site), this study illustrates that land use change, dynamic adaptation and Public-Private Partnership (PPP) are the main measures to reduce the drought disaster risk and have the important role in adapting to droughts based on methodology of the land use survey, household questionnaire, local government and companies’ interview. And a new conceptual model of adaptation from the insight of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) was proposed in spatial, temporal and social dimensions. It is a good practice to adapt to disaster risk and agricultural heritage conservation by tourism development. Adaptive risk management is more important in adapting to disaster risk in order to maintain heritages conservation and local livelihood improvement.