Uniting multi‐adult households during emergency evacuation planning

When a no‐notice emergency prompts an evacuation, family members in different locations throughout a city may unite so that they can evacuate as a group. This paper draws on data from more than 300 interviews conducted in the metropolitan area of Chicago, Illinois, United States. The study uses discrete choice models to analyse the expectations of respondents regarding whether their likely plans for evacuation involve gathering spouses, parents, adult‐age children, and/or non‐family members. In addition, it addresses the matter of whether respondents plan to reunite with family members at home. Individuals' access to a personal car is the dominating factor in predicting whether respondents plan to gather a spouse. Being the parent of a child under the age of 18 years increases the tendency to report planning to reunite with family members at home. Both commute mode and car availability are not significantly associated with plans to reunite at home.     

The barriers impeding precautionary behaviours by undocumented immigrants in emergencies: The Hurricane Ike experience in Houston,Texas, USA

Emergency management tends to be planned for legal, resident populations that are responsive to mainstream channels of communication and enforcement. For many areas prone to extreme events and emergencies, populations are also composed of transitory tourists, temporary visitors and migrant workers. This latter group may be a large population and, while not completely invisible to residents, may prefer obscurity and concealment within the social landscape. Tending towards poverty, technologically disconnected and linguistically isolated, undocumented migrants seek employment and attempt to avoid local law enforcement and immigration officials for fear of imprisonment and deportation. In this context, the behaviours prompted by developing public emergencies will be different for undocumented migrants than for the population at large. We examine the experience of 135 Hispanic undocumented migrants in the coastal zone of Houston-Galveston, Texas to understand the factors and issues that influence decision making and behaviours under region-wide mandatory evacuation conditions. Undocumented migrants’ decisions to evacuate rest upon: the presence (or absence) of family and/or children, their access to risk information that they find meaningful and rational and is in harmony with their pre-conceptions about their circumstances, their openness to information that either confirms their experiences or confronts rumour-generated biases they carry, their familiarity with social groups and governmental agencies and the services they offer, and the outcome of their risk analyses that consider the dangers of remaining in situ against the danger of exposing themselves to discovery as ‘illegal aliens’. The results suggest that emergency management plans ought to promote the dispelling of rumours that weaken the effect of emergency communication, promote non-emergency outreach to peripheral populations through community groups, and promote better, basic, non-technical, Spanish-language media through mainstream conduits (i.e. the most commonly watched non-Spanish television channels) that do not require high-tech devices or advanced understanding of visual media tools.     

Preparedness for emergency response: guidelines for the emergency planning process

Especially since the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, governments worldwide have invested considerable resources in the writing of terrorism emergency response plans. Particularly in the United States, the federal government has created new homeland security organisations and urged state and local governments to draw up plans. This emphasis on the written plan tends to draw attention away from the process of planning itself and the original objective of achieving community emergency preparedness. This paper reviews the concepts of community preparedness and emergency planning, and their relationships with training, exercises and the written plan. A series of 10 planning process guidelines are presented that draw upon the preparedness literature for natural and technological disasters, and can be applied to any environmental threat.     

Heading for higher ground: factors affecting real and hypothetical hurricane evacuation behavior

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to assess the determinants of hurricane evacuation behavior of North Carolina coastal households during Hurricane Bonnie and a future hypothetical hurricane. We use the data from a telephone survey of North Carolina coastal residents. Hypothetical questions are used to assess whether respondents will evacuate and where in the case of a future hurricane with varying intensities. We examine the social, economic, and risk factors that affect the decisions to evacuate and whether to go to a shelter or motel/hotel relative to other destinations. The most important predictor of evacuation is storm intensity. Households are more likely to evacuate when given evacuation orders, when they perceive a flood risk, and when they live in mobile homes. Households who own pets are less likely to evacuate. Non-white households, pet owners and those with more education are less likely to go to either a motel/hotel or shelter, preferring instead to stay with friends or family.     

Factors affecting the evacuation decisions of coastal households during Cyclone Aila in Bangladesh

Despite sincere efforts by concerned agencies and recent improvements in hazard warnings, thousands of at-risk people did not evacuate during Aila, a category-I tropical cyclone that struck southwestern coastal Bangladesh in 2009. This study investigated the responses of the people affected by Aila to cyclone warnings and associated evacuation orders, and unveiled behavioural aspects that explain why they did or did not comply with the evacuation orders. Utilising the primary data collected from 420 households living in the severely affected coastal sub-district Koyra, located in Khulna District, this study found that although more than 97% of the households had received cyclone warnings and evacuation orders before Aila's landfall, only around 26% had evacuated. We also examined this study's empirical findings for factors that had dissuaded people from complying with the evacuation orders. Relevant test statistics along with results from principal component analysis suggested that the significant and systematic absenteeism of households from disaster preparedness training appears to be one of the key determinants that affected their evacuation decisions, along with factors related to warning messages, the attributes of cyclone shelters, risk perception, and socioeconomic aspects. A number of recommendations are also presented in this study for people at risk to improve their evacuation rates in future emergencies, not only to save their own lives but also to save their livestock.     

The World Trade Center Bombing: Injury Prevention Strategies for High-rise Building Fires

The WTC disaster provided an opportunity to look for ways to prevent morbidity among occupants of high-rise buildings during fires. This paper first describes the overall morbidity resulting from the explosion and fire, and second, presents the results of a case-control study carried out to identify risk factors for smoke-related morbidity. The main ones include: increased age, presence of a pre-existing cardio-pulmonary condition, entrapment in a lift and prolonged evacuation time. Study results point to the importance of the following safety systems during high-rise building fires: smoke-control systems with separate emergency power sources; lift-cars, lift-car position-monitoring systems, and lift-car communication systems with separate emergency power sources; two-way emergency communication systems on all floors and in stairwells; stairwells with emergency lighting and designed for the rapid egress of crowds; evacuation systems/equipment to assist in the evacuation of vulnerable people (elderly, infirm). Also important are evacuation plans that include regularly scheduled safety training and evacuation drills.     

重大危险源大规模人群疏散决策模型研究

为在重大危险源应急救灾中给决策人员提供最优的人群疏散方案,提高抢险救灾能力,将疏散过程分为两个阶段——先将灾民疏散至临时疏散救援点,再根据灾民受伤的严重程度有选择地将其疏散至定点医院进行救治。综合考虑灾害对人群疏散造成的影响,将道路危险系数等参数加入目标函数中,将灾区按灾害程度赋予不同的优先疏散系数并将之反映在时间满意度上,以总疏散时间最小为目标函数,建立疏散模型,并应用遗传算法进行求解。最后,通过MATLAB进行仿真计算。研究结果表明:模型和算法给出的疏散策略是有效的。     

Perceptions of personal and governmental actions to improve responses to disasters such as Superstorm Sandy

Superstorm Sandy made landfall in New Jersey on 29 October 2012, leaving tens of thousands homeless, businesses destroyed, and 90% of New Jersey residents without electricity. Widespread infrastructure and property damage, health-related issues, and social dislocations still remain among the challenges. We interviewed 756 people in central and coastal New Jersey to ascertain damage levels, what they would do differently next time, and what governments should do differently. To deal with future events, people thought that they should prepare, buy generators and other supplies, and evacuate sooner. Their actions dealt with preparedness, rather than recovery or resiliency. However, the subjects felt that governmental agencies also had a responsibility for emergency actions, recovery, and resiliency. Preparedness included better warnings and helping to prepare homes for the impending storm. During the storm, people thought government should have faster evacuations, communications, and provide shelter, security, and supplies. Recovery included providing gas and generators, restoring electricity, providing money, and quicker response by FEMA and insurance companies. People thought the government should ensure resiliency of their communities by allowing no beach-front homes, having better building standards, and restoring dunes. Coastal people suffered greater damage for longer, and voiced a higher sense of wanting government actions.     

我国应急预案体系现状及展望——以上海为例

应急预案在自然灾害等突发事件发生时可以起到迅速反应的作用,因此成为突发事件应急管理中重要的一环。我国的应急预案体系已经基本建成,但还存在着预案格式雷同、脱离部门实际、分级体系科学性和可操作性不强、不同预案间接洽性不够、预案建设数量质量不够、缺乏后续管理等种种问题。分析了国内应急预案体系的现状,并探讨了对应急预案体系的改进方法。     

Immediate behavioural responses to earthquakes in Christchurch,New Zealand,and Hitachi,Japan

This study examines people's immediate responses to earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, and Hitachi, Japan. Data collected from 257 respondents in Christchurch and 332 respondents in Hitachi revealed notable similarities between the two cities in people's emotional reactions, risk perceptions, and immediate protective actions during the events. Respondents' physical, household, and social contexts were quite similar, but Hitachi residents reported somewhat higher levels of emotional reaction and risk perception than did Christchurch residents. Contrary to the recommendations of emergency officials, the most frequent response of residents in both cities was to freeze. Christchurch residents were more likely than Hitachi residents to drop to the ground and take cover, whereas Hitachi residents were more likely than Christchurch residents to evacuate immediately the building in which they were situated. There were relatively small correlations between immediate behavioural responses and demographic characteristics, earthquake experience, and physical, social, or household context.     

Predicting self-evacuation in Australian bushfire

Australian bushfire safety policy does not require mandatory evacuation from bushfire as practiced in North America and other jurisdictions. Australian householders confronted with a bushfire threat must decide whether they remain and defend their property or evacuate. A better understanding of factors that influence householders’ decisions to self-evacuate can inform bushfire safety policy. Studies have identified variables that motivate evacuation from various hazards, including wildfire, but factors shaping the decision processes are not well understood. The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) provided a theoretical framework of factors influencing protective response to hazard to analyse the actions of householders affected by two bushfires. Three factors that predict self-evacuation were identified: the perception that evacuation is effective in protecting personal safety; the receipt of official warnings; and perceived threat to property. These findings reinforce the importance of increasing householder awareness and sensitivity to the danger posed by bushfire; the adequacy of people’s bushfire preparedness; the effectiveness of early evacuation in protecting personal safety; and the potential persuasiveness of accurate, relevant and timely official warning messages in influencing safe evacuation from bushfire.     

地铁车站人员疏散离散时间模型研究

疏散时间对于保证地铁车站这类复杂建筑结构内人群的安全至关重要,本文借鉴群集流动理论建立了用于计算地铁车站人群移动时间的疏散离散时间模型(EDTM),模型中的人群流动系数取值不同于传统计算公式中的常量,依据的是经典的车站人群密度与速度函数关系式。将此模型用于某地铁车站站台层,求解楼梯出口疏散人数与时间的关系,并与Building EXODUS疏散软件的模拟结果以及传统地铁车站疏散时间计算公式的计算结果进行了对比,分析表明,EDTM计算结果与EXODUS疏散模拟结果非常接近,且比传统公式计算更为精确和符合实际情况。该计算模型可以为地铁车站人群疏散时间计算、建筑出口性能化设计,以及地铁车站事故应急预案的制定提供更有效的工具。     

京津冀突发事件总体应急预案量化评价

应急预案是应对突发事件工作的重要抓手,加强应急预案管理已成为新时期我国各级政府应急管理工作的重要任务。为提高京津冀应急预案质量,通过构建PMC指数模型来评价该地区突发事件总体应急预案,为预案优化提供建议。选取京津冀5项代表性突发事件总体应急预案为研究样本,首先,基于对预案文本的挖掘与分析以及借鉴已有研究关于应急预案评价指标的设定,建立了包含9个一级变量和57个二级变量的评价指标体系。其次,通过测算得出各个预案的PMC指数分值,据此对每项预案进行分析与优化。结果表明,5项预案的PMC指数均值为7.89,根据评级划分标准,5项预案总体表现良好,其中2项等级为优秀,3项等级为良好。除了在事件分类分级标准、恢复与重建这两个一级变量上没有失分外,在其他一级变量上都有失分,具体可以依据二级变量在这几个方面实施优化。     

Community evacuation following a chlorine release, Mississippi

On 7th September 1986, four miles north of Collins, Mississippi, a train transporting chlorine derailed. Two cars ruptured and gas escaped. As a result, 100 families were evacuated. To study the evacuation process, we conducted person-to-person interviews with sixty-two families staying in the evacuation center. Only 52.5% of the families received their first directive to evacuate directly from police or other officials. Delays in evacuating tended to be shorter when people were warned by the police and were told the reason for evacuating. Lack of personal transportation and preexisting health problems resulted in delays in evacuation. Concerns about evacuation included fear of looting, lack of a place to go, lack of transportation, difficulty in moving with children and elderly persons, and the need to take care of pets. One third of the interviewees reported feeling panic. Community evacuation procedures would be improved if: (1) officials contact all households directly; (2) the warning message addresses people's concerns; and (3) transportation is provided.     

Gender,households, and decision‐making for wildfire safety

This paper considers the impact of gendered norms on decision‐making for wildfire preparation and response at the household level. Focusing on Australia, it provides a theoretical thematic analysis of data acquired in 107 interviews with residents of nine different localities. It builds on existing research on gender and disaster, as well as on decision‐making and wildfires, and analyses the narratives that centre on ‘split’ households plans (where a male partner plans to stay and a female partner plans to evacuate) and disagreements within heterosexual couples as to an appropriate wildfire safety plan. The study finds that gender inequality and differences in gendered expectations are likely to create difficult conditions for negotiation between members of a heterosexual couple when there is disagreement over a plan and that this may contribute to risky decision‐making practices and outcomes. The paper reiterates, therefore, the importance of taking into account the social construction of gender in wildfire research and policy.     

面向突发灾害事件的应急效能评估方法

通常在面临突发灾害情况下,难以迅速确定最佳救援方案,其中的重要原因是缺乏有效的决策支持。为此,提出了突发事件应急效能的概念,并建立了一个基于效用聚合的突发事件应急预案的效能评估方法。最后,以一个大地震灾害的想定为例,应用提出的应急灾害效能评估方法,对多个应急预案进行了评估,评估结果合理可行。     

基于GIS和OREMS的洪灾避难系统

面对突发的灾害,人类采取避难转移的方式来减少生命和财产的损失。大范围的人口转移是一个十分复杂的过程,必须有合理的计划和有效地利用现有的交通设施。提出了基于GIS和OREMS的洪灾避难系统来模拟洪灾的避难转移过程。根据洪灾危险区的统计资料,应用基于GIS的风暴潮洪灾风险系统分析洪灾淹没范围、避难区域的人口分布、路网结构,使用OREMS避难交通模型模拟避难过程。以长兴岛为例进行洪灾避难交通模拟,得到避难耗费时间,路网拥堵路段,并且在分析模拟结果的基础上对避难计划进行优化。     

A mixed method study of hurricane evacuation: demographic predictors for stated compliance to voluntary and mandatory orders

The present paper examines the role of several demographic indicators on stated hurricane evacuation thresholds, or the lowest category storm for which participants indicated they would evacuate, for mandatory and voluntary orders. Quantitative analyses reveal that race was significantly associated with a lower stated evacuation threshold in both the bivariate and multivariate models and that previous refusal to comply with evacuation orders was associated with higher stated evacuation thresholds. Qualitative analyses reveal two key findings: (1) wind is perceived as more dangerous than water (rain and storm surge) associated with hurricanes; (2) traffic concerns were the most frequently cited reason listed for possible refusal to comply with evacuation orders. Implications of the findings include the value of future evaluations of race and trust, storm characteristics and threat perception, and other practical considerations for improving evacuation compliance such as the amelioration of traffic concerns. Findings also lead to the discussion of the social complexities of race and hurricane vulnerability as a key finding.     

Return delays and evacuation order compliance: the case of Hurricane Georges and the Florida Keys

Abstract

Using interview data, we examine the effects of the heavily publicized delays in reentering the Florida Keys after Hurricane Georges on future evacuation intent. Of particular interest is the finding that the delays will have less influence on the future evacuation decisions of those who experienced them than on those who learned of them from secondary sources. Fear of return delays is only one factor in evacuation decision-making, albeit an understudied one. For this sample of evacuees, perceived risk is the most salient factor, and this risk assessment is not sufficiently diminished by the inconveniences, such as delays, associated with evacuation. For non-evacuees, however, the delay factor appeared to only increase their reluctance to evacuate the next time, despite their level of perceived risk.     

The Protection of China's Ancient Cities from Flood Damage

Over many centuries, the repeated and serious flooding of many of China's ancient cities has led to the development of various measures to mitigate the impact of floods. These have included structural measures, such as the construction of walls, dams and dykes, with tree planting for soil consolidation; installation of drainage systems and water storage capacity; the raising of settlement levels and the strengthening of building materials. Non-structural measures include warning systems and planning for emergency evacuation. Urban planning and architectural design have evolved to reduce flood damage, and government officials have been appointed with specific responsibilities for managing the flood control systems. In view of the serious consequences of modern neglect of these well-tried methods, this paper examines China's historical experience of flooding and demonstrates its continuing relevance for today. A brief historical survey is followed by a detailed discussion of various flood prevention measures. The paper is illustrated by city plans from ancient local chronicles.