Evaluation of energy intensity of transport service sectors in Vietnam

This research analyses energy intensity of transport service sectors in Vietnam and its changing trend in the past years using IO tables and LMDI decomposition method. Energy consumption of 38 economic sectors in 2007, 2012 and 2018 is determined, of which transport service sectors were the second largest energy consumer (17.71 Mtoe), occupied 18.5% of total energy consumed in Vietnamese economy in 2018. In terms of energy intensity, a rising trend is seen in all transport service sectors, of which four most important transport services including bus and other road passenger transport, freight transport service by road and pipeline, waterway shipping freight and aviation passenger reached 0.62 kgoe/USD, 0.72 kgoe/USD, 0.60 kgoe/USD and 0.62 kgoe/USD in 2018, respectively. The ineffective structural change and ineffective energy intensity change are the reasons behind the upward trend in these sectors. Using Leontief inverse, the study also unveils how demanded on transport services by other economic sectors in terms of energy and how much energy embodied in all inputs of any economic sector. In order to keep the energy intensity stable and gradually decreasing, the recommendations are focused on effectiveness in structural changes and improvements in energy efficiency.

     

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Shipping

Emissions of exhaust gases and particles from oceangoing ships are a significant and growing contributor to the total emissions from the transportation sector. We present an assessment of the contribution of gaseous and particulate emissions from oceangoing shipping to anthropogenic emissions and air quality. We also assess the degradation in human health and climate change created by these emissions. Regulating ship emissions requires comprehensive knowledge of current fuel consumption and emissions, understanding of their impact on atmospheric composition and climate, and projections of potential future evolutions and mitigation options. Nearly 70% of ship emissions occur within 400 km of coastlines, causing air quality problems through the formation of ground-level ozone, sulphur emissions and particulate matter in coastal areas and harbours with heavy traffic. Furthermore, ozone and aerosol precursor emissions as well as their derivative species from ships may be transported in the atmosphere over several hundreds of kilometres, and thus contribute to air quality problems further inland, even though they are emitted at sea. In addition, ship emissions impact climate. Recent studies indicate that the cooling due to altered clouds far outweighs the warming effects from greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) or ozone from shipping, overall causing a negative present-day radiative forcing (RF). Current efforts to reduce sulphur and other pollutants from shipping may modify this. However, given the short residence time of sulphate compared to CO₂, the climate response from sulphate is of the order decades while that of CO₂ is centuries. The climatic trade-off between positive and negative radiative forcing is still a topic of scientific research, but from what is currently known, a simple cancellation of global mean forcing components is potentially inappropriate and a more comprehensive assessment metric is required. The CO₂ equivalent emissions using the global temperature change potential (GTP) metric indicate that after 50 years the net global mean effect of current emissions is close to zero through cancellation of warming by CO₂ and cooling by sulphate and nitrogen oxides.     

Present and potential future contributions of sulfate,black and organic carbon aerosols from China to global air quality,premature mortality and radiative forcing

Aerosols are harmful to human health and have both direct and indirect effects on climate. China is a major contributor to global emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO₂), a sulfate (SO₄^2?) precursor, organic carbon (OC), and black carbon (BC) aerosols. Although increasingly examined, the effect of present and potential future levels of these emissions on global premature mortality and climate change has not been well quantified. Through both direct radiative effects and indirect effects on clouds, SO₄^2? and OC exert negative radiative forcing (cooling) while BC exerts positive forcing (warming). We analyze the effect of China's emissions of SO₂, SO₄^2?, OC and BC in 2000 and for three emission scenarios in 2030 on global surface aerosol concentrations, premature mortality, and radiative forcing (RF). Using global models of chemical transport (MOZART-2) and radiative transfer (GFDL RTM), and combining simulation results with gridded population data, mortality rates, and concentration–response relationships from the epidemiological literature, we estimate the contribution of Chinese aerosols to global annual premature mortality and to RF in 2000 and 2030. In 2000, we estimate these aerosols cause approximately 470 000 premature deaths in China and an additional 30 000 deaths globally. In 2030, aggressive emission controls lead to a 50% reduction in premature deaths from the 2000 level to 240 000 in China and 10 000 elsewhere, while under a high emissions scenario premature deaths increase 50% from the 2000 level to 720 000 in China and to 40 000 elsewhere. Because the negative RF from SO₄^2? and OC is larger than the positive forcing from BC, Chinese aerosols lead to global net direct RF of ?74 mW m^?2 in 2000 and between ?15 and ?97 mW m^?2 in 2030 depending on the emissions scenario. Our analysis indicates that increased effort to reduce greenhouse gases is essential to address climate change as China's anticipated reduction of aerosols will result in the loss of net negative radiative forcing.     

Emissions from India's transport sector: Statewise synthesis

A decentralized emission inventories are prepared for road transport sector of India in order to design and implement suitable technologies and policies for appropriate mitigation measures. Globalization and liberalization policies of the government in 90's have increased the number of road vehicles nearly 92.6% from 1980–1981 to 2003–2004. These vehicles mainly consume non-renewable fossil fuels, and are a major contributor of green house gases, particularly CO₂ emission. This paper focuses on the statewise road transport emissions (CO₂, CH₄, CO, NO_x, N₂O, SO₂, PM and HC), using region specific mass emission factors for each type of vehicles. The country level emissions (CO₂, CH₄, CO, NO_x, N₂O, SO₂ and NMVOC) are calculated for railways, shipping and airway, based on fuel types. In India, transport sector emits an estimated 258.10 Tg of CO₂, of which 94.5% was contributed by road transport (2003–2004). Among all the states and Union Territories, Maharashtra's contribution is the largest, 28.85 Tg (11.8%) of CO₂, followed by Tamil Nadu 26.41 Tg (10.8%), Gujarat 23.31 Tg (9.6%), Uttar Pradesh 17.42 Tg (7.1%), Rajasthan 15.17 Tg (6.22%) and, Karnataka 15.09 Tg (6.19%). These six states account for 51.8% of the CO₂ emissions from road transport.     

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Aviation

Aviation alters the composition of the atmosphere globally and can thus drive climate change and ozone depletion. The last major international assessment of these impacts was made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1999. Here, a comprehensive updated assessment of aviation is provided. Scientific advances since the 1999 assessment have reduced key uncertainties, sharpening the quantitative evaluation, yet the basic conclusions remain the same. The climate impact of aviation is driven by long-term impacts from CO₂ emissions and shorter-term impacts from non-CO₂ emissions and effects, which include the emissions of water vapour, particles and nitrogen oxides (NO_x). The present-day radiative forcing from aviation (2005) is estimated to be 55 mW m^?2 (excluding cirrus cloud enhancement), which represents some 3.5% (range 1.3–10%, 90% likelihood range) of current anthropogenic forcing, or 78 mW m^?2 including cirrus cloud enhancement, representing 4.9% of current forcing (range 2–14%, 90% likelihood range). According to two SRES-compatible scenarios, future forcings may increase by factors of 3–4 over 2000 levels, in 2050. The effects of aviation emissions of CO₂ on global mean surface temperature last for many hundreds of years (in common with other sources), whilst its non-CO₂ effects on temperature last for decades. Much progress has been made in the last ten years on characterizing emissions, although major uncertainties remain over the nature of particles. Emissions of NO_x result in production of ozone, a climate warming gas, and the reduction of ambient methane (a cooling effect) although the overall balance is warming, based upon current understanding. These NO_x emissions from current subsonic aviation do not appear to deplete stratospheric ozone. Despite the progress made on modelling aviation's impacts on tropospheric chemistry, there remains a significant spread in model results. The knowledge of aviation's impacts on cloudiness has also improved: a limited number of studies have demonstrated an increase in cirrus cloud attributable to aviation although the magnitude varies: however, these trend analyses may be impacted by satellite artefacts. The effect of aviation particles on clouds (with and without contrails) may give rise to either a positive forcing or a negative forcing: the modelling and the underlying processes are highly uncertain, although the overall effect of contrails and enhanced cloudiness is considered to be a positive forcing and could be substantial, compared with other effects. The debate over quantification of aviation impacts has also progressed towards studying potential mitigation and the technological and atmospheric tradeoffs. Current studies are still relatively immature and more work is required to determine optimal technological development paths, which is an aspect that atmospheric science has much to contribute. In terms of alternative fuels, liquid hydrogen represents a possibility and may reduce some of aviation's impacts on climate if the fuel is produced in a carbon-neutral way: such fuel is unlikely to be utilized until a ‘hydrogen economy’ develops. The introduction of biofuels as a means of reducing CO₂ impacts represents a future possibility. However, even over and above land-use concerns and greenhouse gas budget issues, aviation fuels require strict adherence to safety standards and thus require extra processing compared with biofuels destined for other sectors, where the uptake of such fuel may be more beneficial in the first instance.     

Climate forcing by the on-road transportation and power generation sectors

The on-road transportation (ORT) and power generation (PG) sectors are major contributors to carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and a host of short-lived radiatively-active air pollutants, including tropospheric ozone and fine aerosol particles, that exert complex influences on global climate. Effective mitigation of global climate change necessitates action in these sectors for which technology change options exist or are being developed. Most assessments of possible energy change options to date have neglected non-CO₂ air pollutant impacts on radiative forcing (RF). In a multi-pollutant approach, we apply a global atmospheric composition-climate model to quantify the total RF from the global and United States (U.S.) ORT and PG sectors. We assess the RF for 2 time horizons: 20- and 100-year that are relevant for understanding near-term and longer-term impacts of climate change, respectively. ORT is a key target sector to mitigate global climate change because the net non-CO₂ RF is positive and acts to enhance considerably the CO₂ warming impacts. We perform further sensitivity studies to assess the RF impacts of a potential major technology shift that would reduce ORT emissions by 50% with the replacement energy supplied either by a clean zero-emissions source (S1) or by the PG sector, which results in an estimated 20% penalty increase in emissions from this sector (S2). We examine cases where the technology shift is applied globally and in the U.S. only. The resultant RF relative to the present day control is negative (cooling) in all cases for both S1 and S2 scenarios, global and U.S. emissions, and 20- and 100-year time horizons. The net non-CO₂ RF is always important relative to the CO₂ RF and outweighs the CO₂ RF response in the S2 scenario for both time horizons. Assessment of the full impacts of technology and policy strategies designed to mitigate global climate change must consider the climate effects of ozone and fine aerosol particles.     

Local Arctic air pollution: Sources and impacts

Local emissions of Arctic air pollutants and their impacts on climate, ecosystems and health are poorly understood. Future increases due to Arctic warming or economic drivers may put additional pressures on the fragile Arctic environment already affected by mid-latitude air pollution. Aircraft data were collected, for the first time, downwind of shipping and petroleum extraction facilities in the European Arctic. Data analysis reveals discrepancies compared to commonly used emission inventories, highlighting missing emissions (e.g. drilling rigs) and the intermittent nature of certain emissions (e.g. flaring, shipping). Present-day shipping/petroleum extraction emissions already appear to be impacting pollutant (ozone, aerosols) levels along the Norwegian coast and are estimated to cool and warm the Arctic climate, respectively. Future increases in shipping may lead to short-term (long-term) warming (cooling) due to reduced sulphur (CO₂) emissions, and be detrimental to regional air quality (ozone). Further quantification of local Arctic emission impacts is needed.     

Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century

Aviation emissions contribute to the radiative forcing (RF) of climate. Of importance are emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulphate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness. The recent Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) quantified aviation's RF contribution for 2005 based upon 2000 operations data. Aviation has grown strongly over the past years, despite world-changing events in the early 2000s; the average annual passenger traffic growth rate was 5.3% yr^?1 between 2000 and 2007, resulting in an increase of passenger traffic of 38%. Presented here are updated values of aviation RF for 2005 based upon new operations data that show an increase in traffic of 22.5%, fuel use of 8.4% and total aviation RF of 14% (excluding induced-cirrus enhancement) over the period 2000–2005. The lack of physical process models and adequate observational data for aviation-induced cirrus effects limit confidence in quantifying their RF contribution. Total aviation RF (excluding induced cirrus) in 2005 was ～55 mW m^?2 (23–87 mW m^?2, 90% likelihood range), which was 3.5% (range 1.3–10%, 90% likelihood range) of total anthropogenic forcing. Including estimates for aviation-induced cirrus RF increases the total aviation RF in 2005–78 mW m^?2 (38–139 mW m^?2, 90% likelihood range), which represents 4.9% of total anthropogenic forcing (2–14%, 90% likelihood range). Future scenarios of aviation emissions for 2050 that are consistent with IPCC SRES A1 and B2 scenario assumptions have been presented that show an increase of fuel usage by factors of 2.7–3.9 over 2000. Simplified calculations of total aviation RF in 2050 indicate increases by factors of 3.0–4.0 over the 2000 value, representing 4–4.7% of total RF (excluding induced cirrus). An examination of a range of future technological options shows that substantive reductions in aviation fuel usage are possible only with the introduction of radical technologies. Incorporation of aviation into an emissions trading system offers the potential for overall (i.e., beyond the aviation sector) CO₂ emissions reductions. Proposals exist for introduction of such a system at a European level, but no agreement has been reached at a global level.     

Compilation and application of a primary PM2.5 emissions inventory with high sectoral resolution in Japan

To elucidate the macro-structure of the PM_2.5 emissions generated by Japan's economic activities, this paper presents an emission inventory of primary particles of PM_2.5 with high sectoral resolution based on the Japanese Input–Output Tables, comprising some 400 sectors. These primary PM_2.5 emissions were estimated by multiplying the estimated energy consumption associated with each fuel type by a PM₁₀ emission factor incorporating the technological level of dust collection in each sector and the mass ratio of PM_2.5 to PM₁₀. Non-energy emissions from agricultural open burning were also determined. Total PM_2.5 emissions in 2000 were 252 kt, 49% of which were due to mobile emission sources. Changes in total PM_2.5 emissions between 1990 and 2000 were also calculated. This showed that a substantial increase in energy sector emissions due to rising coal consumption was offset by a sharp decline in emissions from road vehicles and shipping vessels, resulting in an overall decrease in total emissions. In addition, the emissions induced by economic demand in each sector were quantified by means of input–output analysis, which revealed that demand for construction, foods and communications and services constituted the principal causes of real domestic emissions. An assessment of sectoral contributions to PM_2.5 emissions that takes into account the effects of human exposure, expressed as external costs, suggests that the contribution of transportation is greater than indicated on the grounds of direct emissions alone.     

Ship emissions and their externalities for the port of Piraeus – Greece

Air pollution from shipping is currently dominating the international and European agenda on environmental protection. Although port emissions are not significantly contributing to the overall picture of ship-generated emissions, it is important to note that the impact of ship exhaust pollutants has a direct effect on the human population and built environment of many urbanized ports. The passenger (main) port of Piraeus qualifies for a ship emission and externality study by virtue of its dominant presence in the Mediterranean expressed in terms of the most frequent port calls by coastal passenger ships and cruise ships operating in the region, as well as in terms of being a most crowded port city through hosting a sizeable resident and visiting (employers and otherwise) population over a relatively small area.An in-port ship activity-based methodology was applied for manoeuvring and berthing of coastal passenger ships and cruise ships calling at the passenger port of Piraeus, in order to estimate the emission of the main ship exhaust pollutants (NO_X, SO₂ and PM_2.5) over a twelve-month period in 2008–2009. The estimated emissions were analyzed in terms of gas species, seasonality, activity and shipping sector. The application of external cost factors led to the estimation of the emission externalities, in an attempt to evaluate the economic impact of the damage emissions produce mainly upon the human population and the built environment.The results indicate that ship emissions in the passenger port of Piraeus reach 2600 tons annually and their estimated externalities over this period are around 51 million euro. Summer emissions and associated impacts are more profound and coastal passenger shipping, as opposed to cruise shipping, is the dominant contributor of emissions and associated externalities. Overall, in a port city such as Piraeus, the need to introduce stringent control on the emissions produced by passenger ships, beyond that dictated by the current 2005/33/EU Directive is very urgent.     

Industrial processing versus home cooking: an environmental comparison between three ways to prepare a meal

Today there is a strong trend in Sweden for industrially processed meals to replace homemade meals. In the public debate this is often claimed to increase the environmental impact from foods. In the study presented in this article, we used life-cycle assessment to quantify the environmental impact of three meals: homemade, semiprepared, and ready-to-eat. The differences in environmental impact between the meals were small; the ready-to-eat meal used the most energy, whereas the homemade meal had higher emissions causing eutrophication and global warming. The dominating contributor to the environmental impact was agriculture, accounting for 30%, of the impact related to energy and 95% of that related to eutrophication. Industry, packaging, and consumer home transport and food preparation also contributed significantly. Important factors were raw material use, energy efficiency in industry and households, packaging, and residue treatment. To decrease the overall environmental impact of food consumption, improvements in agriculture are very important, together with raw-material use within industry and households.     

Primary emissions of fine carbonaceous particles in Europe

The European emissions of BC and OC in fine particles are calculated for the years 1990, 1995 and 2000 applying the RAINS model that, beyond fuel-sector distinction, explicitly includes various combustion technologies and the penetration of abatement options. The emission factors used are developed considering specific European conditions. The main sources of carbonaceous aerosols in Europe are emissions from traffic and residential combustion of solid fuels. Between 1990 and 2000, the BC and OC emissions are estimated to decline from 0.89 to 0.68 Tg and from 1.4 to 1.0 Tg, respectively. Most of the reduction occurred in the early 1990s in Eastern Europe owing to structural changes that resulted in energy efficiency improvements in industry and lower consumption of solid fuels in residential–commercial sector; the latter having strong impact on BC and OC emissions. Furthermore, the growth in transport volumes, and expected increase in emissions, was offset by introduction of stricter legislation for road transport from 1995. Focusing on the most important sectors, transport and residential combustion, the variation in measured carbonaceous emission shares and its impact on total emissions was evaluated. This analysis indicates a range of about −25% to +20% for BC and −7% and +15% for OC, compared to the central case.     

Individual particle characteristics of North African dust under different long-range transport scenarios

After urban sources, mineral dust in Madrid is the second biggest contributor to PM₁₀, making up 40% on average, of total emissions. Approximately, 50% of the days on which the daily limit of 50 μg m^?3 marked by the European Directive, are ascribable to Saharan outbreaks. The present study has focused on individual particle characterization of North African dust over Madrid by SEM/EDX, since no previous works on this type of characterization have been found in the region. More than 30,000 particles from 6 different samples have been measured to characterize 4 African episodes with very different meteorological scenarios, transport processes and source origins. Different samples from the same episode have also been characterized to evaluate homogeneity of dust characteristics over time. Silicates, mainly composed of clay minerals, are the main component, with abundances ranging from 65 to 85% by particle volume. Chemical cluster distribution of silicates has been linked to the major topsoil mineralogical composition in the origin of the episodes. Aspect Ratio (AR) has been used to compare particle morphology between episodes. AR values from samples taken under the same scenarios are statistically equal. For all the samples and size ranges AR values are found to be in the same order: AR_sulphates > AR_silicates > AR_carbonates. Particles not only maintained morphology during the episode, but also chemical composition, since clusters turned out to be very similar in samples taken on the same day and different days. Similarities and differences in particle chemical composition and morphology between the different transport patterns are discussed in detail throughout the paper.     

The sensitivity of the CHIMERE model to emissions reduction scenarios on air quality in Northern Italy

The sensitivity of the CHIMERE model to emission reduction scenarios on particulate matter PM2.5 and ozone (O₃) in Northern Italy is studied. The emissions of NO_x, PM2.5 SO₂, VOC or NH₃ were reduced by 50% for different source sectors for the Lombardy region, together with 5 additional scenarios to estimate the effect of local measures on improving the air quality for the Po valley area. Firstly, we evaluate the model performance by comparing calculated surface aerosol concentrations for the standard case (no emission reductions) with observations for January and June 2005. Calculated monthly mean PM10 concentrations are in general underestimated. For June, modelled PM10 concentrations slightly overestimate the measurements. Calculated monthly mean SO₄, NO₃^?, NH₄⁺ concentrations are in good agreement with the observations for January and June. Secondly, the model sensitivity of emission reduction scenarios on PM2.5 and O₃ calculated concentrations for the Po valley area is evaluated. The most effective scenarios to abate PM2.5 concentration are based on the SNAP2 (non-industrial combustion plants) and SNAP7 (road traffic) sectors, for which the NO_x and PM2.5 emissions are reduced by 50%. The number of days that the 2015 PM2.5 limit value of 25 μg m^?3 in Milan is exceeded by reducing primary PM2.5 and NO_x emissions for SNAP2 and 7 by 50%, does not change in January when compared to the standard case for the Milan area. It appears that 40% of the PM2.5 concentration in the greater Milan area is caused by the emissions surrounding the Lombardy region and from the model boundary conditions.This study also showed that a more effective pollutant reduction (emissions) per ton of pollutant reduced (concentrations) for the greater Milan area is obtained by reducing the primary PM2.5 emissions for SNAP7 by 50%. The most effective scenario on PM2.5 decrease for which precursor emissions are reduced is achieved by reducing SO₂ emissions by 50% for SNAP7.Our study showed that during summer time, the largest reductions in O₃ concentrations are achieved for SNAP7 emission reductions, when volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are reduced by 50%.     

Chemical Composition and Source Apportionment of PM25 Particles in the Sihwa Area,Korea

ABSTRACT

To investigate the chemical characteristics of fine particles in the Sihwa area, Korea, atmospheric aerosol samples were collected using a dichotomous PM₁₀ sampler and two URG PM_2.5 cyclone samplers during five intensive sampling periods between February 1998 and February 1999. The Inductively Coupled Plasma (ICP)-Atomic Emission Spectrometry (AES)/ICP-Mass Spectrometry (MS), ion chromatograph (IC), and thermal manganese dioxide oxidation (TMO) methods were used to analyze the trace elements, ionic species, and carbonaceous species, respectively. Backward trajectory analysis, factor analysis, and a chemical mass balance (CMB) model were used to estimate quantitatively source contributions to PM_{2 5} particles collected in the Sihwa area.

The results of PM_2.5 source apportionment using the CMB7 receptor model showed that (NH₄)₂SO₄ was, on average, the major contributor to PM_2.5 particles, followed by nontraffic organic carbon (OC) emission, NH₄NO₃, agricultural waste burning, motor vehicle emission, road dust, waste incineration, marine aerosol, and others. Here, the nontraffic OC sources include primary anthropogenic OC emitted from the industrial complex zone, secondary OC, and organic species from distant sources. The source impact of waste incineration emission became significant when the dominant wind directions were from southwest and west sectors during the sampling periods. It was found that PM_2.5 particles in the Sihwa area were influenced mainly by both anthropogenic local sources and long-range transport and transformation of air pollutants.     

Assessment of heavy metal releases from the use phase of road transport in Europe

An emission inventory was compiled for heavy metal air emissions from road transport in Europe (EU-40). For the database, country-specific data was taken such as the diesel and gasoline fuel consumption per country, the content of Pb in gasoline and diesel fuel and the share of different vehicle types. For tyre and brake wear emissions, average wear rates and heavy metal contents of different materials were used to develop emission factors for tyre and brake wear. It covers exhaust emissions (Pb from gasoline and diesel) as well as non-exhaust emissions (As, Cd, Cr, Ni and Pb from the wear of brake linings and vehicle tyres). The base year is 2000, and two scenarios were developed for 2010, a business as usual (BAU) scenario and a maximum feasible technical reduction (MFTR) scenario. Both result in a remarkable decrease in Pb exhaust emissions and a rising share of non-exhaust emissions. To assess the results, the inventory is (a) compared to an inventory compiled with a top-down approach that covers the same area and years but only emissions from combustion processes and (b) added to an inventory covering all sectors for heavy metal air emissions.     

Estimation of road vehicle exhaust emissions from 1992 to 2010 and comparison with air quality measurements in Genoa,Italy

An investigation into road transport exhaust emissions in the Genoa urban area was performed by comparing the quantities of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and particulate matter (PM) emitted by different vehicle categories with air quality measurements referred to the same pollutants. Exhaust emissions were evaluated by applying the PROGRESS (computer PROGramme for Road vehicle EmiSSions evaluation) code, developed by the Internal Combustion Engines Group of the University of Genoa, to eight different years (from 1992 to 2010), considering spark ignition and Diesel passenger cars and light duty vehicles, heavy duty vehicles and buses, motorcycles and mopeds. Changes in terms of vehicles number, mileage and total emissions are presented together with relative distributions among the various vehicle categories. By comparing 1992 and 2010 data, calculated trends show a 7% increase in the number of vehicles, with total mileage growing at a faster rate (approx. 22%); total emissions decrease considerably, by approximately 50% for NO_x and PM, 70% for HC and 80% for CO, due to improvements in engines and fuels forced by the stricter European legislation and the fleet renewal, while primary NO₂ emission will be very close to 1992 level, after a decrease of about 18% in 2000.Air quality was analysed by selecting traffic and background measuring stations from the monitoring network managed by the Environmental Department of the Province of Genoa: average annual concentrations of considered pollutants from 1994 to 2007 were calculated in order to obtain the relative historical trends and compare them with European public health limits and with road vehicle emissions. Though an important reduction in pollutant concentrations has been achieved as a consequence of cleaner vehicles, some difficulties in complying with present and/or future NO₂ and PM₁₀ limits are also apparent, thus requiring suitable measures to be taken by the local authorities.     

Modelling the atmospheric transport and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen over the United Kingdom and assessment of the influence of SO2 emissions from international shipping

A statistical Lagrangian atmospheric transport model was used to generate annual maps of deposition of sulphur and oxidised and reduced nitrogen for the UK at a 5×5 km² resolution. The model was run using emissions for the year 2002. The model was compared with measurements of gas concentrations (SO₂, NO_x, HNO₃ and NH₃) and of wet deposition and aerosol concentrations of SO₄²⁻, NO₃⁻ and NH₄⁺ from national monitoring networks. Good correlation was obtained, demonstrating that the model is capable of accurately estimating the mass balance and spatial distribution of sulphur and nitrogen compounds in the atmosphere. A future emissions scenario for the year 2020 was used to test the influence of shipping emissions on sulphur deposition in the UK. The results show that, if shipping emissions are assumed to increase at a rate of 2.5% per year, their relative contribution to sulphur deposition is expected to increase from 9% to 28% between 2002 and 2020. The model was compared to both a European scale and a global scale chemical transport model and found to give broad agreement with the magnitude and location of sulphur deposition associated with shipping emissions. Enforcement of the MARPOL convention to reduce the sulphur content in marine fuel to 1% was estimated to result in a 6% reduction in total sulphur deposition to the UK for the year 2020. The percentage area of sensitive habitats with exceedance of critical loads for acidity in the UK was predicted to decrease by 1% with the implementation of the MARPOL convention.     

Estimating and comparing greenhouse gas emissions with their uncertainties using different methods: A case study for an energy supply utility

Energy supply utilities release significant amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere. It is essential to accurately estimate GHG emissions with their uncertainties, for reducing GHG emissions and mitigating climate change. GHG emissions can be calculated by an activity-based method (i.e., fuel consumption) and continuous emission measurement (CEM). In this study, GHG emissions such as CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O are estimated for a heat generation utility, which uses bituminous coal as fuel, by applying both the activity-based method and CEM. CO₂ emissions by the activity-based method are 12–19% less than that by the CEM, while N₂O and CH₄ emissions by the activity-based method are two orders of magnitude and 60% less than those by the CEM, respectively. Comparing GHG emissions (as CO₂ equivalent) from both methods, total GHG emissions by the activity-based methods are 12–27% lower than that by the CEM, as CO₂ and N₂O emissions are lower than those by the CEM. Results from uncertainty estimation show that uncertainties in the GHG emissions by the activity-based methods range from 3.4% to about 20%, from 67% to 900%, and from about 70% to about 200% for CO₂, N₂O, and CH₄, respectively, while uncertainties in the GHG emissions by the CEM range from 4% to 4.5%. For the activity-based methods, an uncertainty in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) default net calorific value (NCV) is the major uncertainty contributor to CO₂ emissions, while an uncertainty in the IPCC default emission factor is the major uncertainty contributor to CH₄ and N₂O emissions. For the CEM, an uncertainty in volumetric flow measurement, especially for the distribution of the volumetric flow rate in a stack, is the major uncertainty contributor to all GHG emissions, while uncertainties in concentration measurements contribute a little to uncertainties in the GHG emissions.

Implications:Energy supply utilities contribute a significant portion of the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It is important to accurately estimate GHG emissions with their uncertainties for reducing GHG emissions and mitigating climate change. GHG emissions can be estimated by an activity-based method and by continuous emission measurement (CEM), yet little study has been done to calculate GHG emissions with uncertainty analysis. This study estimates GHG emissions and their uncertainties, and also identifies major uncertainty contributors for each method.     

Determinants of fine particle (PM2.5) personal exposure levels in transport microenvironments,London, UK

A series of field studies were carried out in London, UK, during 1999–2000 in which over 400 fine particle (PM_2.5) personal exposure level measurements were taken for journeys in bicycle, bus, car and underground rail transport microenvironments. This was the first comprehensive PM_2.5 personal exposure study of transport users. Both a fixed-route multi-transport mode study and a study of cyclists’ commuter journeys were undertaken. Subsequent to these field studies regression modelling of possible influencing factors of these exposure levels was carried out. Meteorological variables, traffic density, mode and route were considered; the relationships of personal exposure levels with fixed site monitor (FSM) concentrations, and of the FSM concentrations with the potential predictor variables, were also investigated. This analysis of the determinants of transport user exposure to PM_2.5 in London, UK, showed that wind speed had a significant influence on personal exposure levels, though explained only up to 20% of the variability of road transport user exposure levels. The occurrence of higher wind speeds was strongly associated with a decrease in personal exposure levels; a 1.5–2.0 fold difference in exposure level concentrations was estimated between the 10th and 90th percentiles of wind speed. Route was a significant factor, whilst mode was not a significant factor in the street microenvironment (between bicycle, bus and car modes); models incorporating route and mode, as well as wind speed, explained approximately 35% of the variability in PM_2.5 exposure levels. Personal exposure levels were reasonably correlated with urban background FSM concentrations, for fixed-route road mode (bicycle, bus and car) exposure level concentrations, r=0.27 (p<0.01) and for commuter cyclists’ exposure level concentrations r=0.58 (p<0.01).