天然气管道泄漏喷射火燃烧特性研究

针对天然气管道泄漏发生喷射火事故,采用动态火灾软件FDS进行天然气管道泄漏喷射火数值仿真,结合固体火焰模型分析了火焰几何特性、温度与热辐射空间分布等关键参数,依据温度与热辐射伤害准则确定了危险区域范围;并对比不同风速和泄漏孔径下火灾事故的危险范围,研究风速和泄漏孔径对火灾事故的影响程度。结果表明:热辐射是火灾后果的主导因素,25.4 mm泄漏孔径喷射火灾充分燃烧时,其火焰最高温度为1 200℃,喷射口25 m以内为危险区域,随风速增大,温度伤害范围略有增大,热辐射伤害范围显著增大;泄漏孔径变化对喷射火事故后果的影响与风速变化的影响相同,但泄漏孔径对事故后果的影响更为显著,泄漏孔径从6.35 mm增大至25.4 mm和101.6 mm,人员温度伤害半径分别增大2.71倍和10.42倍。最后,结合仿真结果,提出了具有针对性的喷射火应急防控措施。     

基于FDS的天然气集气站分离器喷射火特性仿真研究

天然气集气站火灾事故对集气站安全生产构成严重威胁,研究集气站内关键设备泄漏引发的火灾特性具有重要意义.基于大涡模拟(Large Eddy Simulation)数值方法,针对分离器内介质成分、相态等参数特殊性,采用火灾动力学模拟软件FDS建立集气站卧式气液分离器喷射火模型,对分离器典型泄漏孔径下的喷射火进行数值仿真,研究其火焰几何特性、火场温度及热辐射特性.结果表明,随分离器泄漏孔径的增大,喷射火火焰长度及火焰最大宽度也相应增大.大、小两泄漏孔径的喷射火在充分燃烧区域火焰最高温度分别为1 525 ℃和1 065 ℃.大孔径泄漏的喷射火热辐射值明显高于小孔径,并由于湍流浓度脉动的作用导致热辐射值波动较大,喷射火火焰轴向对称面与相距1.5 m的侧平面上测点热辐射峰值之比与泄漏孔径成正比.根据模拟结果,定量分析了两泄漏孔径下喷射火的危险距离,并提出相应的事故控制措施.     

基于微积分的LPG和CNG喷射火模型建立和三维数值模拟

由液体和气体泄漏引发的喷射火灾事故屡见不鲜,而现有的喷射火模型却有诸多缺陷。将喷射火形状近似为圆锥,鉴于液体和气体的泄漏速度随压强和温度均有变化、点源离地面会有一定高度、风速对火焰倾角也有影响、圆锥喷射中心线上每个点源对目标的热辐射均不同等实际情况,新建液体和气体扩展半径的计算方法,引入风速对火焰高度和火焰偏角的作用,比较AGA法和Thornton模型,发现AGA法更加符合实际,再利用微积分原理建立三维点源喷射火模型,展示火焰形状对目标的影响,从而得出热辐射的最终危险性。最后以LPG和CNG储罐喷射火事故为例进行对比验证,首次模拟出喷射火的形状,更清晰准确地展示了目标入射热辐射通量随目标点位置的变化和危险范围,可为火焰阵面处的消防安全决策提供参考。     

天然气管道泄漏孔形状对喷射火影响模拟研究

为研究天然气管道泄漏孔形状对喷射火特性的影响,基于流体力学基本原理与Thornton火焰模型,采用火灾动态模拟软件(FDS),对比研究面积为0.058 m~2的正方形泄漏孔与长方形泄漏孔的喷射火基本特性以及这2种泄漏孔喷射火的危害范围。研究得出:喷射火特性和危害范围明显受泄漏孔形状影响,泄漏孔形状不同,喷射火尺寸、温度场及辐射场有明显差异;正方形泄漏孔喷射火焰在水平面上呈椭球形分布,高温和热辐射影响区域在垂直于管道方向更宽,喷射速度方向的危害范围较大;长方形泄漏孔喷射火焰在水平面上接近球形分布,高温和热辐射影响区域在泄漏孔长边所在方向更远,且危害范围更宽。     

基于Fluent的城镇中低压燃气管线喷射火事故的后果研究

为了对城镇中低压燃气管线喷射火事故进行有效的风险评估,根据典型事故案例创建了城镇路面埋地燃气管线泄漏场景,建立模型并划分网格,使用Fluent进行模拟计算,得到了不同泄漏口孔径、不同泄漏口形状、不同管内压力等工况下喷射火的火焰长度、火焰中心面温度分布和临近区域内的热流密度,并通过分析不同工况下的火焰形态和热辐射分布,探讨初始条件对事故后果的影响程度。结果表明:此类型喷射火长度可达数十米,火焰最高温度为2 000 K左右,最高温度位置的高度不超过火焰长度的30%;下风向的热流密度较其他方向更强;在50 mm的泄漏口孔径和0.38 MPa的管内压力下,泄漏口为梭子形,较泄漏口为圆形时的热流密度在下风向整体大15.2%。最后,根据模拟结果构建了快速风险评估模型。     

基于FLACS CFD的不同气油比油气混输管道泄漏火灾后果对比

不同气油比的油气混输管道泄漏后果危害形式和风险差异的准确判断对于管道泄漏应急处置至关重要。以中国西部某油田集输管道为研究对象,针对不同气油比管道泄漏的火灾危害进行了对比分析,构建了FLACS CFD模型,并研究了油气混输管道原油泄漏形成池火的火灾特征和影响范围,以及天然气泄漏形成喷射火的高温分布和影响规律。研究结果表明:应急处置应考虑不同气油比下池火与喷射火危害的差异。在油气混输管线泄漏10 min形成稳定火焰的场景中,气油比低于100 m3/t时,原油池火为火灾危险的主要影响因素;气油比高于200 m3/t时,天然气喷射火为主要影响因素;气油比超过250 m3/t,高温覆盖距离不再明显增加;40 m为此场景下混输油气泄漏喷射火致死距离上限,120 m为温度影响上限。     

基于后果的氢气管道泄漏典型事故风险分析

根据高斯羽流、固体火焰模型及TNT当量法,得到针对氢气的扩散、热辐射与超压的后果模型。以我国某氢气管道为例,计算求解后果模型,分析了不同泄漏孔径、不同泄漏喷射角度的氢气管道泄漏典型事故后果,并揭示氢气泄漏扩散、喷射火与爆炸演化原因。量化了氢气管道泄漏的潜在影响半径,发现氢气管道风险大于天然气管道,为氢气管道早期设计与安全运行提供了理论支撑。     

井喷喷射火热辐射影响范围与模型对比分析研究

为了评价井喷事故时喷射火的风险,对比分析Flacs、Thornton模型和点源模型在不同泄漏速率、风速下喷射火热辐射强度计算结果,探讨在相同泄漏速率或相同风速下各模型之间的差异.根据塔里木某口油井的工况,分析在风速为7 m/s,泄漏速率分别为200,170,140,120,90 kg/s和在泄漏速率为140 kg/s时...     

LNG储罐泄漏扩散模拟分析

为预防液化天然气(LNG)储罐泄漏安全事故，利用PHAST软件，以湘潭新奥荷塘储配站的储罐为研究对象，探究不同泄漏孔径及风速2个条件对LNG蒸气云泄漏扩散距离及泄漏导致的喷射火与爆炸范围的影响机制。结果表明：蒸气云泄漏扩散距离、喷射火辐射影响半径及爆炸超压影响半径与泄漏孔径尺寸成正比，蒸气云泄漏扩散距离、爆炸超压影响半径与风速成反比。泄漏孔径为25 mm的泄漏场景，易燃易爆区临界距离、喷射火辐射死亡区半径、爆炸超压50 kPa对应超压半径分别是5 mm场景的10、7、8倍；泄漏孔径为100 mm的泄漏场景，易燃易爆临界距离、喷射火辐射死亡区半径、爆炸超压50 kPa对应超压半径分别是5 mm场景的37、21、33倍。     

障碍物对天然气喷射火影响的数值模拟研究

为研究障碍物控制天然气喷射火对周围设施危害的有效性,基于流体力学基本原理与湍流模型,采用FDS模拟软件,分别研究高度为10 m的障碍物宽度和障碍物与泄漏孔间距对喷射火的影响。研究得出:障碍物对喷射火阻挡效果明显,减缓了火焰在速度方向的传播;障碍物越宽,控制火焰向前传播的效果越好,障碍物后方受火焰高温和热辐射危害越小,但随着宽度的增加,后方温度和热辐射下降率减小,障碍物宽3 m时,对火焰控制效果最好;随着障碍物与泄漏孔间距增加,障碍物后方热辐射先增加后减小,间距为5 m时,障碍物对火焰的控制效果最好,此时喷射火下游受保护的区域最宽。研究结果可为储气罐发生泄漏火灾事故处置及应急设施设计提供参考。     

油浸变压器排油注氮装置在500kV变电站的设计与应用

在分析500kV变电站主变压器消防系统的现状,比较3类消防系统优缺点的基础上,详细论述了主变排油注氮装置的结构组成、工作原理、参数计算、控制系统设计以及需要注意的事项等,为下一步排油注氮装置的推广应用打下基础.     

HAZOP结合What-if方法在某延迟焦化装置除焦中的应用

为克服传统危险与可操作性（HAZOP）定性分析方法在复杂操作、间歇作业等过程中使用的局限性,提出在传统HAZOP定性分析方法的基础上结合What-if（故障假设）方法,对人的不安全行为和操作规程不完备所导致的风险后果分析作出补充。详细说明其技术原理、工作流程等使用细节,系统阐述该方法与传统HAZOP定性分析方法的区别,并在某延迟焦化装置的除焦操作的风险分析中应用。经分析,识别出在“给水-泡焦”节点,有“操作规程错误”场景2项,“操作规程不具体”场景1项,不存在“操作人员未按操作规程执行”场景。研究结果表明:本文方法有效且具有较好效果,可以广泛应用于操作规程/作业指导书审查、作业过程隐患排查等方面,帮助企业开展操作层面的风险识别与管理,提升企业的生产安全水平。     

Nighttime pedestrian fatalities: A comprehensive examination of infrastructure,user, vehicle,and situational factors

Introduction: Pedestrian fatalities in the United States increased 45.5% between 2009 and 2017. More than 85% of those additional pedestrian fatalities occurred at night. Method: We examine Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data for fatal pedestrian crashes that occurred in the dark between 2002 and 2017. Within-variable and before/after examinations of crashes in terms of infrastructure, user, vehicle, and situational characteristics are performed with one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and two-sample t-tests. We model changes in crash characteristic proportions between 2002–2009 and 2010–2017 using linear regressions and test for autocorrelation with Breusch-Godfrey tests. Results: The increase in fatal nighttime pedestrian crashes is most strongly correlated with infrastructure factors: non-intersection unmarked locations (saw 80.8% of additional fatalities); 40–45 mph roads (54.6%); five-lane roads (40.7%); urban (99.7%); and arterials (81.1%). In addition, SUVs were involved in 39.7% of additional fatalities, overrepresenting their share of the fleet. Increased pedestrian alcohol and drug involvement warrant further investigation. The age of pedestrians killed increased more (18.1%) than the national average (3.2%). Conclusions: By identifying factors related to the increase in nighttime pedestrian fatalities, this work constitutes a vital first step in making our streets safer for pedestrians. Practical Applications: More research is needed to understand the efficacy of different solutions, but this paper provides guidance for such future research. Engineering solutions such as road diets or traffic calming may be used to improve identified infrastructure issues by reducing vehicle speeds and road widths. Rethinking vehicle design, especially high front profiles, may improve vehicle issues. However, the problems giving rise to these pedestrian fatalities are likely a result of not only engineering issues but also interrelated social and political factors. Solutions may be correspondingly comprehensive, employing non-linear, systems-based approaches such as Safe Systems.     

森林地表火蔓延模拟方法及其计算机实现

进行了森林火蔓延的研究,对传统的经验公式和模型进行改进,明显发现改进的模型有更好的结果,用计算机巧妙准确地实现了模拟模型,在风力不是特别大,地形变化不是特别剧烈时,该模型有较高精度;并结合火蔓延的主要因素（气象因子、气候、地形等）,进行系统分析,写出算地,编制实现地表火蔓延的预测预报计算机系统软件。这对于有效的组织扑救、减少火灾损失、计算森林火灾的损失评估有重要意义。     

潞安矿区煤层渗透率的各向异性特征实验研究

为了研究原位煤体渗透性的各向异性特征,以山西潞安常村矿3号煤层圆柱试样为对象,利用TCQT-Ⅲ型低渗煤层气相驱替增产试验装置,对煤样进行加载,并以氮气注入压力2.0 MPa的条件下,分析垂直层理和平行层理2个方向的煤体变形和渗透率变化特征。实验结果表明:煤样在加载过程中,平行和垂直层理煤样渗透率均随着有效应力的增大而减小,平行层理方向的渗透率始终大于垂直层理方向,应力加载初期渗透率急剧下降,最后逐渐趋于平缓;径向应变的增加量与渗透率呈正相关性,且平行层理相关性大于垂直层理;沿平行层理方向的裂隙度大于沿垂直层理方向,沿垂直层理方向的应变量大于沿平行层理方向;应变增加量均随有效应力的增加而逐渐减小。研究结果可为煤层井网布置及优化提供参考。     

Footedness and Mounting—Short Review and Two Case Studies

Footedness is a personal quality like handedness. Footedness may be associated with moving ability during mounting, dismounting, and jumping movements. Occupational accidents have occurred during movement at different working levels, during the use of access and exit systems, and during the mounting of vehicles. Aging can also affect accident risk and body laterality. For example, falling accidents on stairs are common among the elderly. One reason for accidents may be that the structure of the access system or stair system is unsuitable for individual moving patterns depending partly on body laterality. Footedness and the way the feet are used may be contradictory to the demands of the moving situation, especially during uncommon or rapid situations. This contradiction may trigger disturbance during moving. The aims of this pilot study were (a) to review the literature briefly and (b) to describe the use of the dominant and nondominant foot by farmers and the elderly when mounting a tractor and stairs, respectively. The study also gives ideas for future studies based on both (a) and (b).     

AHP与GA-SVM耦合模型在滑坡预警中的应用*

为了减少滑坡造成的损失，提高滑坡预测的准确性，通过搭建灾害模拟平台获得滑坡的实验数据，在获得多组模拟实验数据后，分析各变量的特性。首先，通过层次分析(Analytic Hierarchy Process，AHP)算法，对滑坡进行危险度划分；然后，通过支持向量机(Support Vector Machine，SVM)建立模型，遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm,GA)再优化SVM参数，提出1种层次分析法与GA-SVM相耦合的模型。研究结果表明:AHP方法划分后的数据，通过GA与SVM结合建立的模型精度较好，实验预测结果与实际结果较为吻合，与单一SVM相比，精度更高，结果更好，更加适用于多变量的复杂非线性滑坡预警。     

一起有机过氧化物爆炸事故的调查和分析

阐述一起重大爆炸伤亡事故的现场调查和原因分析，介绍如何通过人证物证材料，用鱼刺图法找出可能引起事故的诸原因，逐项加以分析，将与人证或物证材料相矛盾的原因子以排除，最后剩下无法排除亦即能与人证物证相符的那个原因，就是事故的真正原因。笔者是这起事故调查专家组组长，取证和数据可靠。     

Debunking the false dichotomy of leadership idealism and pragmatism: Critical evaluation and support of newer genre leadership theories

Leadership theories have shifted over the last few decades from a focus on managerial functions and economic leader–follower exchanges toward greater focus on the interpersonal dynamics occurring within the leadership process. Theories such as transformational, ethical, authentic, and other “newer genre” theories were created to address neglected topics such as leader vision and inspirational messages, transparency, emotional effects, morality, individualized attention, and intellectual stimulation. Critiques of these theories, however, have been raised. In this paper, we address five of those critiques and argue for the validity and practical effectiveness of the new genre theories. Further, we describe how newer genre leadership research should be viewed as a performative epistemology, entailing a process of co‐creation involving scholars and practitioners. Finally, from this view, we provide general ideas for leader development. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Occupational Safety and Health in Finland

In Finland, occupational safety is the responsibility of the employer, while the occupational safety and health laws are enforced by the Labour Inspection Service, an organization of the state. The Labour Inspection is divided in 11 administrative districts, and it employs 360 professionals. They are mandated to carry out site visits without prearranged appointments to inspect safe work situations, working hours, construction safety, or any aspect of accident risks. The inspectors are also mandated to verify the existence of sufficient occupational health services as prescribed by the Occupational Health Services Act for all employees. The occupational health services are typically provided by enterprise-owned medical departments, by mutually owned health care centers, by private practitioners, or by municipal health care centers. The latter are required by law to provide all services as prescribed by the legislation to anyone who comes to the facility. This situation is prevalent in the countryside, where there are very few private caregiving centers. Declaring occupational accidents and disease cases is mandatory, and the Inspection districts examine all accidents to establish causes and consequences, and to initiate prosecution in case of criminal negligence. Labour Inspection Districts are also notified of the new occupational disease cases as they are declared to insurance companies. Insurance for occupational disease, accidents, and death is an obligation of the employer, although they can choose the insurance company. The medical confidentiality between the workers and their occupational health care providers is very strict. Official statistics are maintained by the state Statistics Finland organization, and they may be used, for example, for research purposes by scientific institutes like the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health. Construction industry accounts for 25% of all fatal accidents (120 cases per 1 million working hours), followed by mechanical, wood, metal, machinery, and pulp and paper industry (10% each of fatal accidents) with rates ranging from 100–160 cases per 1 million working hours. There are some 5,000 occupational disease cases per year (rate 22/10,000 employed). The major disease categories include repetitive strain injuries (1,300 cases), respiratory allergies (600 cases), occupational skin diseases (1,000 cases), and 900 cases of noise-caused hearing loss. In 1998, 589 cases of asbestos-related diseases were reported.