Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.     

Trends in sea ice cover within habitats used by bowhead whales in the western Arctic.

We examined trends in sea ice cover between 1979 and 2002 in four months (March, June, September, and November) for four large (approximately 100,000 km2) and 12 small (approximately 10,000 km2) regions of the western Arctic in habitats used by bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus). Variation in open water with year was significant in all months except March, but interactions between region and year were not. Open water increased in both large and small regions, but trends were weak with least-squares regression accounting for < or =34% of the total variation. In large regions, positive trends in open water were strongest in September. Linear fits were poor, however, even in the East Siberian, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas, where basin-scale analyses have emphasized dramatic sea ice loss. Small regions also showed weak positive trends in open water and strong interannual variability. Open water increased consistently in five small regions where bowhead whales have been observed feeding or where oceanographic models predict prey entrainment, including: (1) June, along the northern Chukotka coast, near Wrangel Island, and along the Beaufort slope; (2) September, near Wrangel Island, the Barrow Arc, and the Chukchi Borderland; and (3) November, along the Barrow Arc. Conversely, there was very little consistent change in sea ice cover in four small regions considered winter refugia for bowhead whales in the northern Bering Sea, nor in two small regions that include the primary springtime migration corridor in the Chukchi Sea. The effects of sea ice cover on bowhead whale prey availability are unknown but can be modeled via production and advection pathways. Our conceptual model suggests that reductions in sea ice cover will increase prey availability along both pathways for this population. This analysis elucidates the variability inherent in the western Arctic marine ecosystem at scales relevant to bowhead whales and contrasts basin-scale depictions of extreme sea ice retreats, thinning, and wind-driven movements.     

Sea ice microbial production supports Ross Sea benthic communities: influence of a small but stable subsidy

Diversity in guilds of primary producers enhances temporal stability in provision of organic matter to consumers. In the Antarctic ecosystem, where temporal variability in phytoplankton production is high, sea ice contains a diatom and microbial community (SIMCO) that represents a pool of organic matter that is seasonally more consistent, although of relatively small magnitude. The fate of organic material produced by SIMCO in Antarctica is largely unknown but may represent an important link between sea ice dynamics and secondary production in nearshore food webs. We used whole tissue and compound-specific stable isotope analysis of consumers to test whether the sea ice microbial community is an important source of organic matter supporting nearshore communities in the Ross Sea. We found distinct gradients in delta13C and delta15N of SIMCO corresponding to differences in inorganic carbon and nitrogen acquisition among sites with different sea ice extent and persistence. Mass balance analysis of a suite of consumers demonstrated large fluxes of SIMCO into the nearshore food web, ranging from 5% to 100% of organic matter supplied to benthic species, and 0-10% of organic matter to upper water column or pelagic inhabitants. A delta13C analysis of nine fatty acids including two key biomarkers for diatoms, eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA, 20:5omega3), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA, 22:6omega3), confirmed these patterns. We observed clear patterns in delta13C of fatty acids that are enriched in 13C for species that acquire a large fraction of their nutrition from SIMCO. These data demonstrate the key role of SIMCO in ecosystem functioning in Antarctica and strong linkages between sea ice extent and nearshore secondary productivity. While SIMCO provides a stabilizing subsidy of organic matter, changes to sea ice coverage associated with climate change would directly affect secondary production and stability of benthic food webs in Antarctica.     

Sea ice retreat alters the biogeography of the Bering Sea continental shelf.

Seasonal ice cover creates a pool of cold bottom water on the eastern Bering Sea continental shelf each winter. The southern edge of this cold pool, which defines the ecotone between arctic and subarctic communities, has retreated approximately 230 km northward since the early 1980s. Bottom trawl surveys of fish and invertebrates in the southeastern Bering Sea (1982-2006) show a coincident reorganization in community composition by latitude. Survey catches show community-wide northward distribution shifts, and the area formerly covered by the cold pool has seen increases in total biomass, species richness, and average trophic level as subarctic fauna have colonized newly favorable habitats. Warming climate has immediate management implications, as 57% of variability in commercial snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) catch is explained by winter sea ice extent. Several measures of community distribution and structure show linear relationships with bottom temperature, suggesting warming climate as the primary cause of changing biogeography. However, residual variability in distribution not explained by climate shows a strong temporal trend, suggesting that internal community dynamics also contribute to changing biogeography. Variability among taxa in their response to temperature was not explained by commercial status or life history traits, suggesting that species-specific responses to future warming will be difficult to predict.     

Long-term change of the marine environment and plankton in the Xiamen Sea under the influence of climate change and human sewage

ABSTRACT

Long-term observations of the Xiamen Sea in Fujian Province were used to analyze variations in sea temperature, salinity, inorganic nitrogen (N), activated phosphate (P), and phytoplankton, as well as the features of red tides. Results showed that in recent decades, sea temperature and concentrations of N and P nutrients increased while salinity decreased attributed to climate warming, rainfall, and human sewage. In addition, reduction in the number of phytoplankton species and rising abundance of phytoplankton indicated that the structure of phytoplankton community presented a simplified and minimized trend which magnified the dominance of dominant phytoplankton species. Since 2000, red tides have occurred more frequently, and the eutrophic-type diatom species, Skeletonema costatum appears to be the predominant species. Data suggested that variations of N and P nutrients exert a potent and rapid influence on phytoplankton than sea temperature and ocean salinity.     

Vertical fine structure of the biomass and composition of algal communities in Arctic pack ice

The biomass and composition of algal communities in sea ice were studied during two summer expeditions to the central Arctic Ocean and the Greenland Sea. Based on algal pigment determination and cell counts, high biomass accumulations were found at the surface, in the interior and in the bottom layer of the ice floes. Pennate diatoms dominated in the bottom layer, while phototrophic flagellates and cysts of unknown origin were the most abundant taxa in the upper parts. The lowermost 20 to 40 cm contained between 4 and 62% of the entire algal biomass. Consequently, ice biological studies, which deal only with the bottom few centimetres of the ice floes, will underestimate algal biomass and production by factors of up to 25. Differences between the results of this study and published data from coastal locations point towards different biological regimes in Arctic sea ice. The algal biomass in coastal ice is about two orders of magnitude higher and composed mainly of diatoms, probably supported by nutrient influx from the water column. In the pack ice of the central Arctic, nutrient supply is probably reduced, and flagellates contribute substantially to total algal biomass. However, methodological problems might partially be responsible for the observed differences. Received: 12 June 1998 / Accepted: 11 December 1998     

Effects of Climate and Land-Use Change on Species Abundance in a Central European Bird Community

Abstract:  Although it is known that changes in land use and climate have an impact on ecological communities, it is unclear which of these factors is currently most important. We sought to determine the influence of land-use and climate alteration on changes in the abundance of Central European birds. We examined the impact of these factors by contrasting abundance changes of birds of different breeding habitat, latitudinal distribution, and migratory behavior. We examined data from the semiquantitative Breeding Bird Atlas of Lake Constance, which borders Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. Changes in the regional abundance of the 159 coexisting bird species from 1980–1981 to 2000–2002 were influenced by all three factors. Farmland birds, species with northerly ranges, and long-distance migrants declined, and wetland birds and species with southerly ranges increased in abundance. A separate analysis of the two decades between 1980–1981 and 1990–1992 and between 1990–1992 and 2000–2002 showed that the impact of climate change increased significantly over time. Latitudinal distribution was not significant in the first decade and became the most significant predictor of abundance changes in the second decade. Although the spatial scale and temporal resolution of our study is limited, this is the first study that suggests that climate change has overtaken land-use modification in determining population trends of Central European birds.     

Under-ice amphipods in the Greenland Sea and Fram Strait (Arctic): environmental controls and seasonal patterns below the pack ice

During three "Polarstern" cruises to the ice-covered Greenland Sea (spring 1997, summer 1994, autumn 1995) studies on the under-ice habitat (morphology, hydrography, ice-algal biomass) and on the macrofaunal, autochthonous under-ice amphipods (species diversity, abundance) were carried out in order to describe environmental controls and seasonal patterns in this community. In spring, the ice underside was rather smooth and whitish, while in summer melting structures and sloughed-off ice-algal threads were observed, in autumn detritus clumps accumulated in depressions at the ice underside. Only in summer, a thin layer of warm (up to -0.6°C) and less saline (as low as S=6.3) water was found at the ice-water interface above Polar Water. Integrated ice-algal biomass was highest during autumn (2.6 mg chl a m^-2) and lowest during summer (1.2 mg chl a m^-2). Four species of under-ice amphipods occurred in spring and summer (Apherusa glacialis, Onisimus glacialis, O. nanseni, Gammarus wilkitzkii), but only the last species was observed at the ice underside in autumn. A. glacialis and G. wilkitzkii were equally abundant in spring; A. glacialis dominated in summer. The highest total abundance of amphipods occurred during summer (31.9 ind. m^-2), compared to lower abundances in spring and autumn (5.3 and 1.1 ind. m^-2, respectively). A factor analysis revealed seasonal patterns in the data set, which mainly influenced A. glacialis, and species-specific relations between several environmental factors and the distribution of under-ice amphipods. Abundance of A. glacialis was closely related to the under-ice hydrography and ice-algal biomass, whereas the other amphipod species were more influenced by the under-ice morphology. It is therefore stated that the observed thinning of the Arctic sea ice and the resulting increased meltwater input and change in morphology of floes will have a profoundly adverse effect on the under-ice amphipods.     

H-Print: a new chemical fingerprinting approach for distinguishing primary production sources in Arctic ecosystems

The unambiguous identification of discrete sources of organic matter is critical for understanding the processes that affect ecosystem structure. Here, we demonstrate how changes in the relative proportions of highly branched isoprenoid lipids can provide a straightforward analytical method to distinguish between organic matter derived from sea ice and seawater within an Arctic ecosystem. In combination with stable isotope analysis, we reconstruct the organic matter pathway across trophic levels, thereby elucidating specific organic matter energy transfers. Combined, these methods will provide a useful analytical approach for determining ecosystem structure in the future. This is likely to become increasingly important as the Arctic continues to experience a phase of rapid climate change.     

Pollution,habitat loss,fishing, and climate change as critical threats to penguins

Cumulative human impacts across the world's oceans are considerable. We therefore examined a single model taxonomic group, the penguins (Spheniscidae), to explore how marine species and communities might be at risk of decline or extinction in the southern hemisphere. We sought to determine the most important threats to penguins and to suggest means to mitigate these threats. Our review has relevance to other taxonomic groups in the southern hemisphere and in northern latitudes, where human impacts are greater. Our review was based on an expert assessment and literature review of all 18 penguin species; 49 scientists contributed to the process. For each penguin species, we considered their range and distribution, population trends, and main anthropogenic threats over the past approximately 250 years. These threats were harvesting adults for oil, skin, and feathers and as bait for crab and rock lobster fisheries; harvesting of eggs; terrestrial habitat degradation; marine pollution; fisheries bycatch and resource competition; environmental variability and climate change; and toxic algal poisoning and disease. Habitat loss, pollution, and fishing, all factors humans can readily mitigate, remain the primary threats for penguin species. Their future resilience to further climate change impacts will almost certainly depend on addressing current threats to existing habitat degradation on land and at sea. We suggest protection of breeding habitat, linked to the designation of appropriately scaled marine reserves, including in the High Seas, will be critical for the future conservation of penguins. However, large‐scale conservation zones are not always practical or politically feasible and other ecosystem‐based management methods that include spatial zoning, bycatch mitigation, and robust harvest control must be developed to maintain marine biodiversity and ensure that ecosystem functioning is maintained across a variety of scales. Contaminación, Pérdida de Hábitat, Pesca y Cambio Climático como Amenazas Críticas para los Pingüinos     

Incorporating Climate Science in Applications of the U.S. Endangered Species Act for Aquatic Species

Aquatic species are threatened by climate change but have received comparatively less attention than terrestrial species. We gleaned key strategies for scientists and managers seeking to address climate change in aquatic conservation planning from the literature and existing knowledge. We address 3 categories of conservation effort that rely on scientific analysis and have particular application under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA): assessment of overall risk to a species; long‐term recovery planning; and evaluation of effects of specific actions or perturbations. Fewer data are available for aquatic species to support these analyses, and climate effects on aquatic systems are poorly characterized. Thus, we recommend scientists conducting analyses supporting ESA decisions develop a conceptual model that links climate, habitat, ecosystem, and species response to changing conditions and use this model to organize analyses and future research. We recommend that current climate conditions are not appropriate for projections used in ESA analyses and that long‐term projections of climate‐change effects provide temporal context as a species‐wide assessment provides spatial context. In these projections, climate change should not be discounted solely because the magnitude of projected change at a particular time is uncertain when directionality of climate change is clear. Identifying likely future habitat at the species scale will indicate key refuges and potential range shifts. However, the risks and benefits associated with errors in modeling future habitat are not equivalent. The ESA offers mechanisms for increasing the overall resilience and resistance of species to climate changes, including establishing recovery goals requiring increased genetic and phenotypic diversity, specifying critical habitat in areas not currently occupied but likely to become important, and using adaptive management. Incorporación de las Ciencias Climáticas en las Aplicaciones del Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro para Especies Acuáticas     

Abundance and variability of microorganisms and transparent exopolymer particles across the ice–water interface of melting first-year sea ice in the Laptev Sea (Arctic)

The distribution and abundance of transparent exopolymer particles (TEP) was determined in and below pack ice of the Laptev Sea from July to September 1995. Samples were collected from the lowermost 10 cm of ice floes and at 10 cm below the ice–water interface. Abundance of bacteria, protists and TEP was determined, and the sea ice–water boundary layer was characterized using temperature, salinity and molecular viscous shear stress. TEP, with a distinct size distribution signal, were found in highest concentrations inside the sea ice, ranging from not detectable to 16 cm² l⁻¹ (median: 2.9 cm² l⁻¹). In the water, concentrations were one order of magnitude lower, ranged from below detection to 2.7 cm² l⁻¹ (median: 0.2 cm² l⁻¹) and decreased after the middle of August, whereas abundances of autotrophic flagellates (AF), diatoms, heterotrophic flagellates (HF) and ciliates increased. The abundance of TEP decreased with its size in all samples following a power law relationship. The relation of TEP to the microbial community differed between the sea ice and water, being positively correlated with bacteria and diatoms in the ice and negatively correlated with HF in the sea water. The presence of a pycnocline significantly influenced the abundance of organisms, diatom composition and TEP concentrations. Pennate diatoms dominated by Nitzschia frigida were most abundant inside the ice. Though bacteria have the potential to produce exopolymeric substances (EPS), the results of this study indicate that the majority of TEP at the ice–water interface in first-year Arctic summer pack ice are produced by diatoms. Received: 19 August 1999 / Accepted: 4 July 2000     

Population structure of two Antarctic ice-associated copepods, Drescheriella glacialis and Paralabidocera antarctica, in winter sea ice

The spatial distribution and population structure of two dominant ice-associated copepods, Drescheriella glacialis and Paralabidocera antarctica, were studied during winter at nine locations in east Antarctic fast ice. These species accounted for at least 90% of the total metazoan abundance at each location. Abundances were high, reaching 175 individuals l^-1 (190,000 m^-2) for D. glacialis and 660 l^-1 (901,000 m^-2) for P. antarctica. These abundances were probably partly supported by the high biomass of ice-algae (Pearson correlation coefficient, r=0.75), as indicated by chlorophyll-a concentrations (1.7-10.1 µg l^-1). The population structures of each species suggested very different life-history strategies. All developmental stages of D. glacialis were isolated from the ice cores, including females with egg sacs, supporting the hypothesis that this species reproduces in the sea ice during winter. This strategy might assist D. glacialis in leading a continually colonising existence, whereby it responds opportunistically to the availability of favourable habitat patches. The populations of P. antarctica were composed primarily of nauplii (>99%), consistent with past observations of a synchronised life cycle for this species. The strong coupling of the developmental cycle of P. antarctica to the growth and decay of sea ice suggests that local extinctions might occur in areas where ice break-out is unpredictable.     

Predicting abundance of desert riparian birds: validation and calibration of the Effective Area Model.

Reliable prediction of the effects of landscape change on species abundance is critical to land managers who must make frequent, rapid decisions with long-term consequences. However, due to inherent temporal and spatial variability in ecological systems, previous attempts to predict species abundance in novel locations and/or time frames have been largely unsuccessful. The Effective Area Model (EAM) uses change in habitat composition and geometry coupled with response of animals to habitat edges to predict change in species abundance at a landscape scale. Our research goals were to validate EAM abundance predictions in new locations and to develop a calibration framework that enables absolute abundance predictions in novel regions or time frames. For model validation, we compared the EAM to a null model excluding edge effects in terms of accurate prediction of species abundance. The EAM outperformed the null model for 83.3% of species (N=12) for which it was possible to discern a difference when considering 50 validation sites. Likewise, the EAM outperformed the null model when considering subsets of validation sites categorized on the basis of four variables (isolation, presence of water, region, and focal habitat). Additionally, we explored a framework for producing calibrated models to decrease prediction error given inherent temporal and spatial variability in abundance. We calibrated the EAM to new locations using linear regression between observed and predicted abundance with and without additional habitat covariates. We found that model adjustments for unexplained variability in time and space, as well as variability that can be explained by incorporating additional covariates, improved EAM predictions. Calibrated EAM abundance estimates with additional site-level variables explained a significant amount of variability (P < 0.05) in observed abundance for 17 of 20 species, with R2 values >25% for 12 species, >48% for six species, and >60% for four species when considering all predictive models. The calibration framework described in this paper can be used to predict absolute abundance in sites different from those in which data were collected if the target population of sites to which one would like to statistically infer is sampled in a probabilistic way.     

Zooplankton responses to hydrological and trophic variability in a Mediterranean coastal ecosystem (Lesina Lagoon,South Adriatic Sea)

Spatial and temporal variability in zooplankton was studied at eight stations located in the Lesina Lagoon (South Adriatic Sea) Salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll a (in the lagoon) at these stations were also assessed. The zooplankton community was characterised by clear seasonal oscillations and mostly represented by copepods and their larvae. The dominant copepod species were Calanipeda aquaedulcis and Acartia tonsa, which exhibited spatial–temporal segregation in the lagoon. C. aquaedulcis copepodites seemed to be better adapted to oligotrophic and oligohaline conditions compared with the A. tonsa population. The invasive species A. tonsa has completely replaced the formerly abundant Acartia margalefi. A positive correlation was found between abundances, total species numbers and trophic state. An increasing abundance trend was shown from the lagoon towards the sea. The highest diversity indices were recorded at the two channel inlets, during high tide due to the absence of a clear dominance of one or more coastal species and the co-occurrence of species of lagoon and marine origin.     

The Melting Himalayas: Cascading Effects of Climate Change on Water, Biodiversity, and Livelihoods

Abstract:  The Greater Himalayas hold the largest mass of ice outside polar regions and are the source of the 10 largest rivers in Asia. Rapid reduction in the volume of Himalayan glaciers due to climate change is occurring. The cascading effects of rising temperatures and loss of ice and snow in the region are affecting, for example, water availability (amounts, seasonality), biodiversity (endemic species, predator–prey relations), ecosystem boundary shifts (tree-line movements, high-elevation ecosystem changes), and global feedbacks (monsoonal shifts, loss of soil carbon). Climate change will also have environmental and social impacts that will likely increase uncertainty in water supplies and agricultural production for human populations across Asia. A common understanding of climate change needs to be developed through regional and local-scale research so that mitigation and adaptation strategies can be identified and implemented. The challenges brought about by climate change in the Greater Himalayas can only be addressed through increased regional collaboration in scientific research and policy making.     

Structural confirmation of the sea ice biomarker IP25 found in Arctic marine sediments

IP₂₅ is a highly branched isoprenoid and an organic geochemical biomarker that is produced by some Arctic sea ice diatoms. IP₂₅ has previously been used in Arctic palaeo sea ice reconstruction studies and as a tracer for studying Arctic food webs. Here, the molecular structure of IP₂₅ has been confirmed by ¹H and ¹³C NMR spectroscopy following large-scale extraction from marine sediments obtained from the Canadian Arctic and purification using a combination of open-column and HPLC chromatographic methods. The structure of IP₂₅ was consistent between the three different sampling locations and was identical to that found previously for this biomarker following synthesis from a closely related highly branched isoprenoid diene. Since this study represents the first structural characterisation of IP₂₅ in sediments, future analysis of sedimentary IP₂₅ for palaeo Arctic sea ice reconstructions can be carried out with much greater confidence.     

Climate Change,Marine Environments,and the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Climate change is expected to be a top driver of global biodiversity loss in the 21st century. It poses new challenges to conserving and managing imperiled species, particularly in marine and estuarine ecosystems. The use of climate‐related science in statutorily driven species management, such as under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA), is in its early stages. This article provides an overview of ESA processes, with emphasis on the mandate to the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) to manage listed marine, estuarine, and anadromous species. Although the ESA is specific to the United States, its requirements are broadly relevant to conservation planning. Under the ESA, species, subspecies, and “distinct population segments” may be listed as either endangered or threatened, and taking of most listed species (harassing, harming, pursuing, wounding, killing, or capturing) is prohibited unless specifically authorized via a case‐by‐case permit process. Government agencies, in addition to avoiding take, must ensure that actions they fund, authorize, or conduct are not likely to jeopardize a listed species’ continued existence or adversely affect designated critical habitat. Decisions for which climate change is likely to be a key factor include: determining whether a species should be listed under the ESA, designating critical habitat areas, developing species recovery plans, and predicting whether effects of proposed human activities will be compatible with ESA‐listed species’ survival and recovery. Scientific analyses that underlie these critical conservation decisions include risk assessment, long‐term recovery planning, defining environmental baselines, predicting distribution, and defining appropriate temporal and spatial scales. Although specific guidance is still evolving, it is clear that the unprecedented changes in global ecosystems brought about by climate change necessitate new information and approaches to conservation of imperiled species. El Cambio Climático, los Ecosistemas Marinos y el Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro     

Integrating functional connectivity and fire management for better conservation outcomes

Globally, the mean abundance of terrestrial animals has fallen by 50% since 1970, and populations face ongoing threats associated with habitat loss, fragmentation, climate change, and disturbance. Climate change can influence the quality of remaining habitat directly and indirectly by precipitating increases in the extent, frequency, and severity of natural disturbances, such as fire. Species face the combined threats of habitat clearance, changing climates, and altered disturbance regimes, each of which may interact and have cascading impacts on animal populations. Typically, conservation agencies are limited in their capacity to mitigate rates of habitat clearance, habitat fragmentation, or climate change, yet fire management is increasingly used worldwide to reduce wildfire risk and achieve conservation outcomes. A popular approach to ecological fire management involves the creation of fire mosaics to promote animal diversity. However, this strategy has 2 fundamental limitations: the effect of fire on animal movement within or among habitat patches is not considered and the implications of the current fire regime for long-term population persistence are overlooked. Spatial and temporal patterns in fire history can influence animal movement, which is essential to the survival of individual animals, maintenance of genetic diversity, and persistence of populations, species, and ecosystems. We argue that there is rich potential for fire managers to manipulate animal movement patterns; enhance functional connectivity, gene flow, and genetic diversity; and increase the capacity of populations to persist under shifting environmental conditions. Recent methodological advances, such as spatiotemporal connectivity modeling, spatially explicit individual-based simulation, and fire-regime modeling can be integrated to achieve better outcomes for biodiversity in human-modified, fire-prone landscapes. Article impact statement: Land managers may conserve populations by using fire to sustain or enhance functional connectivity.