Protective Progressives to Distrustful Traditionalists: A Post Hoc Segmentation Method for Science Communication

ABSTRACT

This study demonstrates a post-hoc segmentation that is effective in creating distinct and robust segments of interest for researchers and practitioners in science communication. We use agglomerative hierarchical clustering to classify survey respondents based on answers to a short, five-item battery of questions drawn from variables that are frequently used in science communication. Resulting segments demonstrate strong differences in regards to demographics, issue-specific science knowledge, attention to media, sentiment toward media, and social networking site use. We assess the utility of the segments through a series of regression analyses in order to determine differences among segments with regards to intent to seek information about three science issues: fracking, nanotechnology, and synthetic biology.     

A framework for allocating conservation resources among multiple threats and actions

Land managers decide how to allocate resources among multiple threats that can be addressed through multiple possible actions. Additionally, these actions vary in feasibility, effectiveness, and cost. We sought to provide a way to optimize resource allocation to address multiple threats when multiple management options are available, including mutually exclusive options. Formulating the decision as a combinatorial optimization problem, our framework takes as inputs the expected impact and cost of each threat for each action (including do nothing) and for each overall budget identifies the optimal action to take for each threat. We compared the optimal solution to an easy to calculate greedy algorithm approximation and a variety of plausible ranking schemes. We applied the framework to management of multiple introduced plant species in Australian alpine areas. We developed a model of invasion to predict the expected impact in 50 years for each species-action combination that accounted for each species’ current invasion state (absent, localized, widespread); arrival probability; spread rate; impact, if present, of each species; and management effectiveness of each species-action combination. We found that the recommended action for a threat changed with budget; there was no single optimal management action for each species; and considering more than one candidate action can substantially increase the management plan's overall efficiency. The approximate solution (solution ranked by marginal cost-effectiveness) performed well when the budget matched the cost of the prioritized actions, indicating that this approach would be effective if the budget was set as part of the prioritization process. The ranking schemes varied in performance, and achieving a close to optimal solution was not guaranteed. Global sensitivity analysis revealed a threat's expected impact and, to a lesser extent, management effectiveness were the most influential parameters, emphasizing the need to focus research and monitoring efforts on their quantification.     

Feeding behavior of the Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus on the hydromedusa Aglantha digitale

Under laboratory conditions, the Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus feed on Aglantha digitale, a small, transparent medusa common in temperate and boreal waters. The same feeding response to A. digitale was observed whether the medusae were offered alone or together with a mixture of copepod prey. A. digitale mortality in the path of the mackerel school is estimated to be near 100%. Median carbon and nitrogen content of A. digitale was equivalent to about ten small copepods (e.g. Pseudocalanus sp.). A. digitale is abundant in temperate-boreal waters and may be an important source of nutrition to mackerel in the northwest Atlantic.     

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.     

Relevance of element content of bark for the distribution of epiphytic lichens in a montane spruce forest affected by forest dieback

Element content in the bark on Norway spruce (Picea abies) was measured in a montane forest heavily affected by forest dieback and compared to that in a nearby intact stand. Bark contained less S, K, Fe, Mn, Pb, Cu, and H+ and more N, Ca, Mg, and Zn in the dieback-affected stand than in the intact one. Diversity of epiphytic lichen vegetation was higher in the dieback-affected stand than in the intact one. Cover of the foliose lichen Hypogymnia physodes was negatively correlated with Mn and Cu content of bark. Cover of the extremely acidophytic species Lecanora conizaeoides decreased with increasing Mg and increased with increasing Cu content of bark. The measurements support the hypothesis that chemical site factors are decisive for the high lichen diversity in dieback-affected montane spruce forests.     

Planning for robust reserve networks using uncertainty analysis

Planning land-use for biodiversity conservation frequently involves computer-assisted reserve selection algorithms. Typically such algorithms operate on matrices of species presence–absence in sites, or on species-specific distributions of model predicted probabilities of occurrence in grid cells. There are practically always errors in input data—erroneous species presence–absence data, structural and parametric uncertainty in predictive habitat models, and lack of correspondence between temporal presence and long-run persistence. Despite these uncertainties, typical reserve selection methods proceed as if there is no uncertainty in the data or models. Having two conservation options of apparently equal biological value, one would prefer the option whose value is relatively insensitive to errors in planning inputs. In this work we show how uncertainty analysis for reserve planning can be implemented within a framework of information-gap decision theory, generating reserve designs that are robust to uncertainty. Consideration of uncertainty involves modifications to the typical objective functions used in reserve selection. Search for robust-optimal reserve structures can still be implemented via typical reserve selection optimization techniques, including stepwise heuristics, integer-programming and stochastic global search.     

Reproduction ofCalanus glacialis under ice in spring in southeastern Hudson Bay,Canada

In situ egg production rates ofCalanus glacialis Jaschnov females caught under the ice cover of southeastern Hudson Bay, Canada, between early April and mid-June 1986 were measured by direct observations and by an egg-ratio method in order to investigate the role of ice microalgae and under-ice phytoplankton production in copepod reproduction. Egg production commenced, although at low rates, in early May, about 3 wk after the onset of measurable concentrations of ice microalgae at the ice-water interface. Egg production increased to about 12 eggs female^–1 d^–1 in early June, after the ice cover began to melt. The time taken by immature adult females to reach maturity in the field was estimated to be ca. 3 wk (between late April and mid-May) by visual evaluation of gonad maturity in preserved females. In the laboratory, females caught on 10 April and maintained in saturating concentrations of the diatomThalassiosira weissflogii took only a few days to produce eggs at high rates, indicatingC. glacialis was food-limited during the ice algal bloom at the interface. We suggest that ice algal grazing changes the timing, relative to high food concentrations in the water column, of reproduction inC. glacialis by promoting oogenesis and oocyte maturation.Contribution to the programme of GIROQ (Groupe interuniversitaire de recherches océanographiques du Québec)Please send all reprint requests to Dr. Runge at his current address: Institut Maurice-Lamontagne, Ministère des Pêches et Océans, C. P. 1000, Mont-Joli, Québec G5H 3Z4, Canada     

Biological weighting of ultraviolet (280–400 nm) induced mortality in marine zooplankton and fish. I. Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) eggs

In the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada, productivity-determining biophysical interactions occur in the upper 0 to 30 m of the water column. The eggs and larvae of several commercially important marine invertebrates and fishes (e.g. Gadus morhua L.) are found in this layer. Measurements of the diffuse attenuation coefficients for ultraviolet-B radiation (280 to 320 nm, UV-B) at various locations in this geographic region indicated maximum 10% depths (the depth to which 10% of the surface energy penetrates at a given wavelength) of 3 to 4 m at a wavelength of 310 nm. This represents a significant percentage of the summer mixed-layer water column: organisms residing in this layer are exposed to UV-B radiation. Laboratory experiments using a Xenon-arc-lamp based solar simulator revealed that cod embryos exposed to UV-B exhibited high wavelength-dependent mortality. The strongest effects occurred under exposures to wavelengths below 312 nm. This susceptibility was also dependent upon developmental stage; mortality was particularly high during gastrulation. At the shorter wavelengths (<305 nm) UV-B-induced mortality was strongly dose-dependent, and not significantly influenced by dose-rate. The biological weighting function (BWF) derived for UV-B-induced mortality in cod eggs is similar to that reported for naked DNA – suggesting that the mortality is a direct result of DNA damage. There was no evidence of a detrimental effect of ultraviolet-A radiation (320 to 400 nm). Calculations based upon the BWF indicate that, under current noon surface irradiance, 50% of cod eggs located at or very near (within 10 cm) the ocean surface will be dead after 42 h of exposure. Under solar spectral irradiance simulating a 20% decrease in ozone layer thickness, this time drops to 32 h. These are first-order estimates based upon surface irradiance taken at a time of day during which the values would be maximal. Nonetheless, they illustrate the relative changes in UV-B impacts that will result from ozone layer depletions expected over the coming decades. It is also important to point out that variability in cloud cover, water quality, and vertical distribution and displacement of cod eggs and larvae within the mixed layer, can all have a greater effect on the flux of UV-B radiation to which fish eggs are exposed than will ozone layer depletion at these latitudes. Received: 2 March 1998 / Accepted: 18 December 1998