Foreignness as a constraint on learning: The impact of migrants on disaster resilience in small islands

Knowledge about natural hazard management has increased significantly since Gilbert White's seminal research in 1945, yet people are still badly affected by natural hazards. A key question remains in natural hazards research: why, when all the conditions for effective disaster risk reduction are in place, do some people not take action to reduce their risk of harm? Through a questionnaire-based study we investigated the motivating factors that led residents of the Cayman Islands to prepare for annual tropical cyclones (hurricanes). Factors that increase the likelihood of individuals preparing for hurricanes are: previous experience of major storms, having linking networks and ties, having a child under the age of 15 in the home, and residency status—expatriate residents are less likely to prepare. Factors that appear to prevent adaptive behaviour include: living close to or adjacent to the coast, recent migration to the islands, and living in rented accommodation. The findings of the survey confirm that even within societies that are well prepared for tropical cyclones, there are still sub-groups who do not engage with the preparedness process. In the case of the Cayman Islands, new migrants are the most vulnerable to tropical cyclones as they tend to fall into the demographic groups least likely to prepare for cyclones, live in locations with high levels of exposure to cyclone impacts, and interact mostly with other expatriates with no previous experience of cyclone impacts. As climate change promises to bring an increasing intensity of tropical cyclones, these findings have relevance for all islands which draw on migrant workers to support economic growth.     

Fiji, land of tropical cyclones and hurricanes: A case study of agricultural rehabilitation

Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have a severe impact on the social and economic activities of affected communities. For small island nations in the Pacific region, the effects can be devastating because of their smallness. FQi and several other countries in the region are vulnerable to such disasters as they are situated in the zone where cyclones occur frequently.
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems.     

Normalised insurance losses from Australian natural disasters: 1966–2017

ABSTRACT

The paper updates normalisation of the Insurance Council of Australia’s Disaster List in the light of debate about the contribution of global warming to the rising cost of natural disasters. Normalisation estimates losses from historical events in a common year, here ‘season’ 2017 defined as the 12-month period from 1 July 2017. The number and nominal cost of new residential dwellings are key normalising factors and post-1974 improvements in construction standards in tropical cyclone-prone parts of the country are explicitly allowed for. 94% of the normalised losses arise from weather-related perils – bushfires, tropical cyclones, floods and severe storms – with the 1999 Sydney hailstorm the most costly single event (AUD5.6 billion). When aggregated by season, there is no trend in normalised losses from weather-related perils; in other words, after we normalise for changes we know to have taken place, no residual signal remains to be explained by changes in the occurrence of extreme weather events, regardless of cause. In sum, the rising cost of natural disasters is being driven by where and how we chose to live and with more people living in vulnerable locations with more to lose, natural disasters remain an important problem irrespective of a warming climate.     

登陆广东的热带气旋及其产生的灾害链

根据广东省1949～2000年52年的热带气旋统计资料和减灾防灾年鉴，对登陆广东的热带气旋灾害特征及其形成的灾害链进行了研究。结果表明，登陆广东热带气旋灾害发生频次高，强度大，范围广，突发性、并发性强；具有区域性，季节性，并有集中于某一地区某一时间的特征。由于热带气旋各致灾因子的连锁反应，次生灾害常形成多种灾害链。本文根据灾害链成因对其进行了分类分析。     

上海地区热带气旋灾情的评估和灾年预测

本文用数理统计方法，计算了１９４９￣１９９０年影响上海地区的热带气旋造成的人员伤亡、农田受淹、房屋倒损三方面的灾情指数。在此基础上划分了灾情等级，最后用灰色预测模型预测出在１９９７年上海将会发生一次中等（含３级）以上热带气旋灾情。     

Deaths in natural hazards in the solomon islands

Archival and library search techniques have been used to establish extensive databases on deaths and damage resulting from natural hazards in the Solomon Islands. Although the records of fatalities are certainly incomplete, volcanic eruptions, tropical cyclones, landslides, tsunami and earthquakes appear to have been the most important. Only 22 per cent of the recorded deaths have resulted from meteorological hazards but a single event could change this proportion significantly. Five events in the fatality database account for 88 per cent of the recorded deaths. Future death tolls are also likely to be dominated by a small number of events. While the expected number of deaths in a given period is dependent upon the length of record considered, it is clear that a disaster which kills one hundred or more people in the Solomons can be expected more frequently than once in a hundred years.     

中国海岸地带面临的重大环境变化与灾害及其防御对策

中国海岸地带面向２１世纪的持续发展,面临着相对海面加速上升和热带气旋、风暴潮与低洼地洪涝不断加剧以及海岸环境急剧恶化等一系列重大环境变化与灾害问题。本文着重分析相对海面上升、热带气旋、风暴潮与洪水灾害以及海岸环境污染的特征、演变趋势及防御对策。     

热带气旋"碧利斯"与"派比安"灾害成因对比分析

2006年,对广西间接影响的第4号强热带风暴"碧利斯"和正面袭击的第6号台风"派比安",共造成直接经济损失42亿元,占广西全年所有气象灾害造成的直接经济损失的50%。对比分析"碧利斯"与"派比安"的灾害特点与成因,从而可引发对防御措施的思考。     

Cyclone disaster vulnerability and response experiences in coastal Bangladesh

For generations, cyclones and tidal surges have frequently devastated lives and property in coastal and island Bangladesh. This study explores vulnerability to cyclone hazards using first‐hand coping recollections from prior to, during and after these events. Qualitative field data suggest that, beyond extreme cyclone forces, localised vulnerability is defined in terms of response processes, infrastructure, socially uneven exposure, settlement development patterns, and livelihoods. Prior to cyclones, religious activities increase and people try to save food and valuable possessions. Those in dispersed settlements who fail to reach cyclone shelters take refuge in thatched‐roof houses and big‐branch trees. However, women and children are affected more despite the modification of traditional hierarchies during cyclone periods. Instinctive survival strategies and intra‐community cooperation improve coping post cyclone. This study recommends that disaster reduction programmes encourage cyclone mitigation while being aware of localised realities, endogenous risk analyses, and coping and adaptation of affected communities (as active survivors rather than helpless victims).     

中国沿海风暴潮灾害的历史变化及未来趋向

中国是全球少数几个同时受台风风暴潮和温带风暴潮危害的国家之一，风暴潮灾一年四季，从面到北均可发生，本文基于中国沿海近５０年风暴潮灾时间变化和空间分布特点的分析，着重探讨了近５００年全国及长江、黄河、珠江三角洲的历史记录和近５０年实测风暴潮灾发生频次的变化及其与气候波动的关系，并对未来全球变化背景下，中国沿海风暴潮灾的变化趋向进行了讨论。结果表明：近５００年来，中国沿海的风暴潮灾的气温较高的偏暖时段     

1991年华南地区热带气旋灾害概况

本文介绍了1991年在我国登陆的6个热带气旋灾害的特点及其所造成的人员伤亡与经济损失。     

The changing emphasis of disasters in Bangladesh NGOs

Bangladesh is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, affected by cyclones and floods, as well as chronic hazards such as arsenic poisoning. NGOs have played a major role in bringing concerns related to risk management on to the national agenda and promoting a shift of focus from mere relief response to disaster mitigation and preparedness. The government has, after earlier scepticism, now accepted NGOs as major partners in these tasks. Innovative approaches, such as the use of microfinance, have been applied; many of which are related to preserving the gains of development efforts as part of rehabilitation. NGOs have pressured for better coordination with government. Improved structures are now approved, but it is still too early to judge their impact. Despite progress, neither NGOs nor governmental agencies have clearly defined roles in the effort to link disaster management priorities. This will ensure that longer-term development efforts build on local capacities and reduce vulnerabilities.     

The vulnerability of small island States to sea level rise: the need for holistic strategies

There is uncertainty about climate change and its socioenvironmental implications, but the vulnerability of small island states to hazardous events is likely to become increasingly significant. It will not be a normally benign sea that rises but the incidence of storms and cyclones can be assumed to increase with tropical sea-surface temperatures. The proportional socioeconomic impact of tropical cyclone disasters makes these of crucial significance to small islands and small island states. Sea-defences are of little use (and may not be feasible at all) against the damage caused by tropical cyclones and some sea-surges. Social and economic adjustments are also required to parallel erosion control; and disaster preparedness "longstops" must be further developed as a matter of urgency. Apparently small measures must not be displaced by images of ultimate, massive catastrophe; adjustments may serve other functions in society as well. International and bilateral measures are required to take account of migration and"ecological refugees" and national administrations may require modification to take appropriate account of this most crucial of environmental phenomena.     

影响黄渤海域热带气旋的灾害分析

分析了1971—2000年北上影响辽东半岛及黄渤海域热带气旋的气候特征、路径分类及灾害特点，结果表明，台风是造成黄渤海域风浪灾害的主要天气系统之一；辽东半岛地区，最大暴雨是由台风引起的；不同路径的热带气旋造成的灾害不同；热带气旋活动具有群集性，在产生风暴潮、暴雨的同时，常引发洪涝灾害、泥石流、滑坡等次生灾害，加重了灾害程度。     

Criteria for Evaluating the Condition of a Tropical Cyclone Warning System

This paper evaluates the condition (i.e. health) of a tropical cyclone warning system (TCWS) during a 'quiet period' between infrequent intense cyclones. Capacity to make pre-disaster evaluations is important--disaster warning systems need to be in sound condition before, not after, disaster. The research--part of the UK's International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction Flagship Programme--focuses upon an evaluatory method first used on flood warning systems. The Criteria-development Matrix comprises social, organisational and institutional criteria by which a TCWS may be assessed using a five-stage development scale. This method is used to evaluate Mauritius's TCWS using in-depth interview data. Ways to enhance the method and apply it to other disaster warning systems are discussed. The TCWS in Mauritius is a relatively sound one from which others can learn. Weaknesses requiring attention for Mauritius's TCWS to progress to an advanced level of development are identified.     

A preliminary study on mortality attributed to tropical cyclones in Taiwan 2000–2014

Studies on mortality attributed to tropical cyclones often concern large-scale disasters. Attention is rarely paid to small-scale mortality over the long term. To understand the relationship between the environment and the behavior that contributes to mortality, this article uses a classification table to review the 1556 deaths attributed to tropical cyclones, named typhoons, in Taiwan during the period 2000–2014. The results demonstrate that the majority of outdoor deaths are associated with work-related activities, while most indoor deaths occur during non-work-related activities. Taking action, such as stopping the car on a bridge if the tail lights of a vehicle in front disappear, and not walking on the roadside when the road is flooded by muddy water, may help to reduce the likelihood of typhoon-attributed death. The findings also help to dispel four myths associated with typhoon-attributed mortality.     

Evaluating betterment projects

In the past decade Australia has experienced a series of large‐scale, severe natural disasters including catastrophic bushfires, widespread and repeated flooding, and intense storms and cyclones. There appears to be a prima facie case for rebuilding damaged infrastructure to a more disaster resilient (that is, to ‘betterment’) standard. The purpose of this paper is to develop and illustrate a consistent and readily applied method for advancing proposals for the betterment of essential public assets, which can be used by governments at all levels to determine the net benefits of such proposals. Case study results demonstrate that betterment investments have the potential to deliver a positive economic return across a range of asset types and regions. Results, however, are highly sensitive to underlying assumptions; in particular the probability of the natural disaster affecting the infrastructure in the absence of betterment.     

Using cluster analysis to explore mortality patterns associated with tropical cyclones

Understanding the circumstances and conditions surrounding disaster‐attributed deaths may contribute to designing and implementing emergency preparedness and response programmes. This paper introduces a three‐step cluster analysis of multiple binary variables to investigate mortality patterns related to tropical cyclones. It is designed to overcome the difficulties of performing cluster analysis in a disaster database that is composed in part of nominal variables and is unavoidably incomplete owing to missing information. The first step in the process codes all variables as binary data in order to accommodate the nominal variables. The second step calculates Spearman's rank correlation coefficients for pairs of variables. And the third step subjects the correlation coefficients to cluster analysis. Data related to 1,575 deaths attributed to tropical cyclones (also known as typhoons) that struck Taiwan between 2000 and 2015 are used to illustrate the method. The results yield two distinct groups of variables that are worthy of further exploration.     

Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines, 2004–08: a sign of what climate change will mean?

Being an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is susceptible and vulnerable to the ill-effects of weather-related hazards. Extreme weather events, which include tropical cyclones, monsoon rains and dry spells, have triggered hazards (such as floods and landslides) that have turned into disasters. Financial resources that were meant for development and social services have had to be diverted in response, addressing the destruction caused by calamities that beset different regions of the country. Changing climatic patterns and weather-related occurrences over the past five years (2004-08) may serve as an indicator of what climate change will mean for the country. Early recognition of this possibility and the implementation of appropriate action and measures, through disaster risk management, are important if loss of life and property is to be minimised, if not totally eradicated. This is a matter of urgent concern given the geographical location and geological characteristics of the Philippines.     

中国台风灾害及其影响的研究

中国是世界上受热带气旋影响最严重的国家之一。本文对影响和登陆中国的热带气旋活动的特征、台风灾害特点及其形成规律作了分析，并讨论了台风灾害对中国社会和经济发展的影响。分析结果指出，影响中国的台风灾害具有发生频率高、突发性强、群发性显著、影响范围广、成灾强度大等特点，这类灾害主要由台风带来的狂风、暴雨、风暴潮及其引发的灾害链所造成。台风灾害不仅造成大批人员伤亡，而且对中国各个经济部门都有严重影响，它所