多氯联苯对我国土壤微生物的生态毒理效应

作为持久性有机污染物(POPs),多氯联苯(PCBs)一旦进入土壤将长期存留并对土栖生物产生潜在危害。土壤微生物是土壤生态系统重要组成部分,研究外源PCBs对土壤微生物的生态毒理效应,筛选出指示PCBs污染的敏感指标并获取可靠的生态毒理数据十分重要。研究以江西红壤和天津潮土为供试土壤,在室内25℃连续培养28 d的条件下进行了生态毒理实验,选择了微生物量碳、呼吸强度、代谢熵、硝化作用、脱氢酶活性、脲酶活性和微生物群落功能多样性为微生物指标。结果显示:1)在28 d培养时间内,多氯联苯(PCBs)的毒性作用随培养时间的延长而增强,且在红壤中的毒性作用强于在潮土中,表明PCBs对土壤微生物的毒性作用存在时间效应并受土壤性质的影响。2)各微生物指标的敏感性不同,微生物量碳、脲酶活性和微生物功能多样性对PCBs污染反应不够敏感,而土壤呼吸强度、代谢熵、硝化作用和脱氢酶活性对PCBs污染反应敏感。3)14 d时,红壤中PCBs对脱氢酶活性、呼吸强度和代谢熵的EC10值分别为1.20、3.18和1.09 mg·kg-1,而在潮土中分别为6.31、4.73和50 mg·kg-1;28 d时,红壤中PCBs对硝化作用、脱氢酶活性、呼吸强度和代谢熵的EC10值分别为2.32、0.77、0.51和0.71mg·kg-1,而在潮土中分别为5.91、1.65、3.00和50 mg·kg-1。综合考虑经济和实际需要等因素,建议将呼吸强度、硝化作用和脱氢酶活性作为PCBs污染土壤生态毒理评价中的首选敏感指标,并建议培养时间设置为28 d。     

菲和镉复合污染对土壤微生物的生态毒理效应

以土壤酶活性和微生物数量作为生态毒理指标,通过模拟试验,比较分析多环芳烃菲和重金属镉单一与复合污染对土壤微生物的生态毒理效应.结果表明,菲和镉复合污染对土壤蔗糖酶、脲酶和脱氢酶均具有协同抑制作用;而对磷酸酶和微生物的数量具有拮抗抑制作用.菲和镉复合污染及菲单一污染对土壤微生物的活性抑制率从大到小依次为：放线菌＞真菌＞细菌;镉单一污染则为：真菌＞细菌＞放线菌.     

镉、铜、铅复合污染对枇杷园土壤微生物的生态毒理效应(Ecotoxicological Effect of Cd-Cu-Pb Compound Pollution on Loquat Soil Microbe)

以土壤微生物生化过程与数量、土壤酶活性为指标,通过正交实验,在室内培养条件下探讨了Cd、Cu、Pb复合污染对土壤微生物的生态毒理效应.结果表明,1)Cd、Cu、Pb复合污染可显著降低土壤脲酶、蔗糖酶活性,对土壤过氧化氢酶和磷酸酶则表现出协同抑制或激活效应,不同重金属对土壤酶抑制效应顺序为Cd>Cu>Pb,土壤脲酶、蔗糖酶活性可作为指示土壤Cd、Cu、Pb复合污染程度的预警指标;2)不同微生物对Cd、Cu、Pb复合污染的敏感性为:细菌>放线菌>真菌,对微生物种群数量的影响强度为Cd>Cu>Pb;3)Cd、Cu、Pb复合污染对土壤微生物呼吸强度的影响较小,抑制率普遍较低,个别组出现激活作用.     

长期不同施肥处理对红壤水稻土酶活性及微生物群落功能多样性的影响

江西红壤生态试验站长期定位试验中不同施肥处理红壤水稻土酶活性及微生物群落功能多样性的研究结果表明,不同施肥条件下土壤酶活性及微生物群落功能多样性差异较大,土壤脲酶和脱氢酶活性可以作为土壤肥力的指标。经过20 a施肥管理及水稻种植,土壤酶活性及生物量有很大提高;但是B IOLOGTM生态测试板测定结果显示,施肥使微生物生物群落物种丰富度有所减少,施P土壤酶活性、微生物群落功能多样性均大于未施P土壤,采用秸秆还田处理的群落物种均一性高于未采用秸秆还田处理。     

几种典型土壤中铜对赤子爱胜蚓的毒性差异比较研究

土壤污染物基础生态毒理数据是开展污染土壤生态风险评价和构建土壤生态筛选基准的重要依据.以湖南红壤、北京潮土、吉林黑土和经济合作与发展组织(OECD)推荐的人工土壤为测试介质,按照国际标准化组织(ISO)颁布的测试方法,研究了铜在4种不同土壤中对赤子爱胜蚓(Eisenia fetida)的急性和慢性毒性.结果表明,铜在4种不同类型土壤中对赤子爱胜蚓的毒性效应差异较大,在湖南红壤、北京潮土、吉林黑土和人工土壤中的半致死浓度(14d LC50)分别为134.4、557.7、715.2和867.0mg·kg-1;赤子爱胜蚓体重对较低浓度铜污染响应相对不敏感,而较高浓度铜污染(接近引起蚯蚓死亡的高浓度)则可导致蚯蚓体重显著降低;铜对赤子爱胜蚓生殖(产茧量)的影响较为明显,其在湖南红壤、北京潮土、吉林黑土和人工土壤中对蚯蚓产茧量产生50%抑制作用的有效中浓度(28d EC50)分别为58.2、140.1、258.9和150.4mg·kg-1,无可见效应浓度(NOECs)分别为50、50、200和100mg·kg-1.鉴于我国土壤类型的多样性十分丰富,不同地区土壤性质差异较大等特点,在制定土壤筛选基准时需考虑污染物在不同土壤中生物有效性与毒性的差异。     

土壤的芘污染与土壤酶活性

选择芘作为多环芳烃(PAHs)代表污染物、敏感土壤酶作为污染物的生态毒理指标,探讨芘暴露下土壤酶活性的变化。结果表明:芘的添加浓度>50μg·kg-1时,对土壤脲酶、土壤脱氢酶活性有先抑制、后激活的作用,对土壤磷酸酶活性有激活作用;芘的添加浓度为50～1200μg·kg-1时,对土壤过氧化氢酶活性没有影响。土壤脲酶、脱氢酶、磷酸酶活性有可能作为芘污染土壤的生态毒理指标。     

苯并[a]芘累积污染对土壤微生物群落功能多样性的影响

本文采用低剂量叠加的方式模拟苯并[a]芘(Benzo(a)pyrene,Ba P)在实际土壤中的累积过程,利用Biolog-ECO方法研究Ba P不同污染方式对土壤微生物群落功能的影响,以期揭示Ba P累积污染对土壤微生物群落功能多样性的影响.结果表明,在累积和一次污染方式下,土壤Ba P可提取态和有效态含量随土壤培养时间的延长而降低,前期(1—28 d)下降速率较快,后期(28—56 d)下降速率减缓.土壤微生物代谢活性AWCD值在培养初期(1 d)表现出LCK-YYCK-L的规律,培养7 d表现为YCK-YCK-LL,而后(8—56 d)各处理的AWCD值表现与培养7 d的规律一致.微生物群落物种丰富度指数和常见物种优势度指数的变化趋势与AWCD值变化规律一致.累积污染处理在土壤培养过程中先促进(1 d)后抑制(7—56 d)了土壤微生物群落功能多样性;一次污染处理与之相反,先抑制(1 d)后刺激(7—56 d)了土壤微生物群落功能多样性.累积污染处理的微生物代谢活性和多样性指数与Ba P含量的相关性大于一次污染.累积污染更能反映Ba P在土壤中的真实生物毒性.     

pH变化对酸性土壤酶活性的影响

采用酸性土壤,以添加酸或碱的方式,研究酸化或碱化对土壤酶活性的影响.结果表明,培养过程中对照土壤微生物C量(Cmic)变化与土壤pH变化密切相关,Cmic大时pH值相对较低,显示土壤中微生物活动加剧对土壤pH下降的影响.除过氧化物酶外,土壤pH值变化对土壤酶活性影响较大.脲酶、过氧化氧酶、酸性磷酸酶、碱性磷酸酶、脱氢酶、多酚氧化酶和蛋白酶活性大致呈现酸化抑制碱化激活的规律.前期酸碱添加都抑制了酸性磷酸酶、碱性磷酸酶、脱氢酶活性,中期酸碱添加都抑制了多酚氧化酶活性,后期酸碱添加都抑制了蛋白酶活性.蔗糖酶活性呈现前期酸化激活碱化抑制,中期酸碱都以激活为主,后期碱化又呈现抑制作用.纤维素酶活性变化没有明显规律性.总体上酸添加对土壤酶活性主要起抑制作用,碱添加主要起激活作用.土壤Cmic变化和酶活性变化之间有着较为密切的关系,存在酸化抑制Cmic碱化激活Cmic的现象,pH变化对微生物活性的影响是造成土壤酶活性变化的主要因素.     

新疆盐渍土3种植被类型土壤微生物碳源利用

研究了新疆天山以北三工河流域自然生境下梭梭(Haloxylon ammodendron)、琵琶柴(Reaumuriasoongonica)、隐子草(Cleistogenes chinensis)3种植被群落的土壤微生物碳源利用差异,分析了土壤理化性质与微生物总体活性、功能多样性的相关关系.采用BIOLOG生态板检测了各微生物群落对31种单一碳源的利用情况,结果表明,3种群落的微生物总体活性(AWCD)(F=41.877,P<0.001)、功能多样性(Shannon指数)(F=164.680,P<0.001)、丰富度(R值)(F=20.818,P=0.02)差异显著,其中梭梭植被下微生物群落的AWCD值、Shannon多样性指数、R值明显高于其他两种植被的微生物群落.土壤pH(相关系数=0.958,P<0.001)、土壤总碳相对含量(相关系数=0.718,P<0.05)与微生物总体活性(AWCD)呈显著相关,对微生物碳源利用有重要影响,而土壤可溶盐总量、含水率则与AWCD相关性不显著,微生物群落碳源利用功能多样性和丰富度与土壤理化性质均无显著相关关系.对于所研究的31种单一碳源,梭梭植被下微生物群落的利用情况也好于其他两种植被类型,对11种单一碳源利用情况较好,而琵琶柴、隐子草植被微生物群落分别则仅能对其中6种和5种碳源有较好的利用能力.     

杉木连栽林土壤微生物碳源利用比较

在测定土壤理化性质的基础上,应用Biolog-ECO技术,分析杉木1代(FCF)、连栽2代(SCF)、连栽3代(TCF)人工林和楠木人工林(PBP,对照)4种林分类型土壤微生物群落总碳源利用动力学特性、微生物多样性指数及多样性指数与土壤理化性质的相关关系.结果显示:4种林分类型的土壤微生物丰富度(Shannon指数)、优势度(Simpson指数)、均匀度(Mc Intosh指数)均达到了显著差异(P0.05);PBP土壤微生物总体活性(AWCD)、Shannon指数、Simpson指数及Mc Intosh指数值均高于其他3种类型;土壤微生物生物量碳(C)含量、氮(N)含量、Shannon指数、Simpson指数与AWCD值的相关性达到了显著水平(P0.05);其中AWCD值、土壤p H、全C、全N、土壤微生物生物量C、N的大小顺序为PBPFCFSCFTCF.本研究表明,随着杉木连栽代数的增加,土壤微生物群落总体活性逐代下降.(图1表7参32)     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

Rapid,recurring, structured survey versus bioblitz for generating biodiversity data and analysis with a multispecies abundance model

A bioblitz inexpensively and quickly generates biodiversity data, but bioblitzes are often conducted with haphazard, unreplicated sampling. Results tend to be taxonomically, geographically, or temporally biased, lack metadata, and consist of lists of observed taxa that do not enable further analyses or correction for imperfect detection. A rapid, recurring, structured survey (RRSS) uses a structured sampling design and temporal and spatial replication to survey randomly selected sites on a conservation property. We participated in a loosely structured bioblitz and a subsequent RRSS at Big Canoe Creek Nature Preserve in Springville (St. Clair County), Alabama (USA) to compare observed richness derived from the 2 survey approaches. The RRSS data structure enabled us to fit models that accounted for imperfect detection to estimate abundances, occupancy probabilities, and habitat associations. The loosely structured bioblitz data could not be used in such models. We present a new integrated multispecies abundance model that we applied to avian RRSS data. Our model extension enables estimation for the community, employs data augmentation to estimate the number of undetected species, and incorporates covariates. The RRSS generated a more comprehensive and less biased list of observed taxonomic richness than the loosely structured bioblitz (e.g., 73 vs. 45 bird species and 104 vs. 63 insect families from the RRSS vs. loosely structured bioblitz, respectively). Models fit to the RRSS data identified seasonal patterns in avian community composition and allowed for estimation of habitat–occupancy relationships for insect taxa. The RRSS protocol has potential for broad transferability as a standardized, quick, and inexpensive way to inventory biodiversity and estimate ecological parameters while providing an outreach opportunity.     

Compliance with and ecosystem function of biodiversity offsets in North American and European freshwaters

Land-use change via human development is a major driver of biodiversity loss. To reduce these impacts, billions of dollars are spent on biodiversity offsets. However, studies evaluating offset project effectiveness that examine components such as the overall compliance and function of projects remain rare. We reviewed 577 offsetting projects in freshwater ecosystems that included the metrics project size, type of aquatic system (e.g., wetland and creek), offsetting measure (e.g., enhancement, restoration, and creation), and an assessment of the projects’ compliance and functional success. Project information was obtained from scientific and government databases and gray literature. Despite considerable investment in offsetting projects, crucial problems persisted. Although compliance and function were related to each other, a high level of compliance did not guarantee a high degree of function. However, large projects relative to area had better function than small projects. Function improved when projects targeted productivity or specific ecosystem features and when multiple complementary management targets were in place. Restorative measures were more likely to achieve targets than creating entirely new ecosystems. Altogether the relationships we found highlight specific ecological processes that may help improve offsetting outcomes.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

A palaeo-hydrogeological model for arsenic contamination in southern and south-east Asia

An argument is presented in which areas of natural arsenic contamination of modern groundwaters throughout Asia have a common origin. Arsenic originally accumulated in oceanic ferro-manganoan sediments of the eastern Palaeo-Tethys. This was further concentrated through oceanic crustal extinction in what later became the south-east Chinese accreted mineralised terrain. Proto-Himalayan uplift of this area created the palaeo-drainage systems of the Ganges – Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Mekong, and Red Rivers, with consequent headwater erosion of arsenic-rich sediments. Their downstream deposition as immature and easily redistributed Neogene sandstones, silts, and iron-rich clays has created secondary and tertiary reservoirs of adsorbed and authigenic arsenic, from which the current arsenic-rich groundwaters have evolved. Considering river basins within the above palaeo-hydrogeological framework provides a basis for assessing the risk of arsenic in groundwater basins of south and south-eastern Asia.     

What Every Conservation Biologist Should Know about Economic Theory

Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.     

Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km² around Bonga and 3000 km² in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques     

Cost‐effective conservation of an endangered frog under uncertainty

How should managers choose among conservation options when resources are scarce and there is uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of actions? Well‐developed tools exist for prioritizing areas for one‐time and binary actions (e.g., protect vs. not protect), but methods for prioritizing incremental or ongoing actions (such as habitat creation and maintenance) remain uncommon. We devised an approach that combines metapopulation viability and cost‐effectiveness analyses to select among alternative conservation actions while accounting for uncertainty. In our study, cost‐effectiveness is the ratio between the benefit of an action and its economic cost, where benefit is the change in metapopulation viability. We applied the approach to the case of the endangered growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis), which is threatened by urban development. We extended a Bayesian model to predict metapopulation viability under 9 urbanization and management scenarios and incorporated the full probability distribution of possible outcomes for each scenario into the cost‐effectiveness analysis. This allowed us to discern between cost‐effective alternatives that were robust to uncertainty and those with a relatively high risk of failure. We found a relatively high risk of extinction following urbanization if the only action was reservation of core habitat; habitat creation actions performed better than enhancement actions; and cost‐effectiveness ranking changed depending on the consideration of uncertainty. Our results suggest that creation and maintenance of wetlands dedicated to L. raniformis is the only cost‐effective action likely to result in a sufficiently low risk of extinction. To our knowledge we are the first study to use Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis to explicitly incorporate parametric and demographic uncertainty into a cost‐effective evaluation of conservation actions. The approach offers guidance to decision makers aiming to achieve cost‐effective conservation under uncertainty.