中国工业SO2排放量动态变化分析

中国工业SO2减排工作的重点。经济增长、经济空间结构变化、技术进步是影响污染物排放量变化的三个重要因素。在分析我国工业SO2排放量、排放结构、排放强度等变化趋势的基础上,通过构建对数平均权重分解模型定量分解经济增长、结构变化、技术进步这3个因素对工业SO2排放量变化的贡献。结果表明：（1）中国工业SO2排放量年均增长48.7×10^4 t,年均增长率为3.2%,且2002—2006年增速加快;（2）分地区看,1991年以来,东部地区SO2排放量所占比重明显下降,中部地区略有上升,而西部地区所占比重增加显著;（3）单位产值工业SO2排放强度在研究期内迅速降低,年均下降幅度为8.4%,对减缓SO2排放量的过快增长起到了积极作用;（4）经济增长平均每年促进SO2排放量增长183.7×10^4 t,技术进步则平均每年使SO2排放量减少134.2×10^4 t,空间结构因素平均每年减少SO2排放量0.8×10^4 t。可以看出,长期以来,虽然我国的技术水平有了一定程度提高,但经济规模的扩张使中国工业SO2排放量持续增长,对中国环境压力形成了巨大压力,同时,经济总量在不同地区的分配对SO2排放量的影响也在不断变化中。     

能源足迹变化的多因素影响效应研究——以吉林省为例

采用对数平均迪氏指数法构建能源足迹因素分解模型,定量分析1994—2008年吉林省能源足迹变化的主要影响因素及其效应特征。结果表明,1994—2008年,吉林省人均能源足迹从0.228 hm2增至0.524 hm2。在能源足迹增长的抑制因素中,能源强度效应占84.54%,排放因子效应占15.46%;在能源足迹增长的促进因素中,经济产出效应占91.39%,能源结构效应占4.30%,人口规模效应占3.73%,土地固碳效应占0.57%。以经济产出因素为主导的正效应明显大于以能源强度因素为主导的负效应,两者之比为1.73∶1,叠加表现为对能源足迹增长的促进作用,导致其总体呈递增趋势。此外,在正、负效应的双变量格局下,能源足迹呈复合曲面分布。目前减缓吉林省能源足迹增长的重点在于通过技术进步促进能源强度下降,同时需调整能源结构以发挥其应有的抑制作用。     

基于LMDI模型的陕西省能源消费碳排放压力解耦分析

依据2001—2011年陕西省能源消费数据,测算并分析了陕西省碳排放量及碳排放压力。采用对数平均迪氏指数分解法(LMDI)建立陕西省碳压力解耦分解模型,并运用扩展Kaya恒等式分析能源排放强度、能源结构、能源效率、经济效应和环境效应5种因素对陕西省碳排放造成的环境压力的影响。结果表明,2011年陕西省能源消费碳排放总量比2001年上升248%,碳排放所造成的环境压力增长141.76%。经济效应对碳排放压力增长有推动作用。对碳排放压力有抑制作用的2个因素为能源效率和环境效应。提高能源利用效率和增加森林覆盖率是降低陕西省碳排放压力的主要手段。     

辽宁省能源足迹变动的分析

采用生态足迹模型与分解分析模型,定量核算了1990-2006年辽宁省能源足迹,分析了其变动趋势及其影响因素.结果表明,1990-2006年,辽宁省能源足迹呈不断增大趋势,总量由3508万hm~2增加到6491万hm~2,人均值则由0.896hm~2扩大到1.542 hm~2,增加了将近1倍,在区域生态压力中的贡献额为30%.在各类贡献因素中,经济发展对能源足迹的贡献远高于其他因素,其次为能源结构效应、人口规模效应,能源强度效应最低.虽然能源强度不断下降,但其对区域生态压力下降的贡献不足于抵消由能源结构不合理和消费水平的提高造成的生态影响,导致辽宁省能源足迹持续增加.     

中国工业烟尘排放状况研究

烟尘是工业最主要的污染气体排放之一,它不仅威胁人体健康,还严重破坏区域环境。为了研究分析2001—2009年中国工业烟尘排放的发展趋势及其影响因素,并有针对性地提出工业烟尘减排的建议与对策,文章首先根据中国工业的经济与环境数据,描述分析了2001—2009年工业烟尘排放的发展趋势,再利用对数平均迪氏指数法（LMDI）将工业烟尘排放的影响因素分解为规模效应、结构效应、技术效应和治理效应4个子因素。通过对比分析各子因素的影响程度和发展变化情况,得出规模效应是工业烟尘排放的重要来源,技术效应和治理效应是工业烟尘减排的主要动力,而结构效应是未来烟尘减排的重要方向等结论。文章根据各工业子行业的烟尘产生与排放量,建议将化工及金属行业,水热电气供应业作为目前工业烟尘减排中的重点行业,这两个行业的烟尘产生量与排放量之和均达到工业烟尘产生量与排放量的80%以上。通过对比各影响因素对各工业子行业的影响程度,指出各子行业烟尘减排的主要方向与存在的障碍。     

基于CA-Markov模型的惠州市生态与经济协调度时空演变特征及模拟预测

研究生态环境与经济效益的协调发展关系以实现城市可持续发展是土地科学的焦点。基于2000—2015年惠州市遥感影像,通过CA-Markov模型预测研究区2025年土地利用状况,以1 km×1 km惠州市土地利用数据为基础,以生态系统服务价值表征生态,以GDP表征经济,运用经济协调度模型对惠州市生态与经济协调度进行耦合,开展时空演变分析及预测,同时采用Getis-Ord Gi~*分析其空间异质性,以此揭示快速城市化区域的生态环境与经济发展耦合协调关系和空间分异特征。结果表明,模拟预测2025年的惠州市土地利用格局与其他时期相比,土地利用效率较高,景观破碎化现象相对于前期得到有效缓解。经济环境协调变化指数在近20 a变化较大,生态经济失调区域面积大于生态经济协调区域面积,空间分布上失衡,生态环境质量低和经济发展过快的两极化现象较为严重,生态与经济协调水平总体不高,发达地区周边的局部区域从不协调向协调转变,并有逐渐扩大趋势。经济协调度空间分布模式从2000年的冷点单一聚集发展为2025年的冷热点2种集聚模式共同分布,同时热点向冷点逐渐迁移。目前快速城市化区域的经济与生态协调发展水平较低,形势较为严峻,但已有转好的趋向,并且空间差异不均衡和两极化发展问题较为突出,发达地区在发展经济的同时需要加大生态修复和保护力度,实现生态与经济协同可持续发展。     

山东省循环经济建设的生态效率测度

构建山东省循环经济建设的生态效率评价指标体系,对山东省的生态效率进行测度,并探讨经济发展与环境压力的脱钩/复钩关系.结果表明,2000-2010年,山东省GDP呈快速增长趋势,年均增长率达13.08％,各自然输入要素中用水总量、SO2和COD排放量呈下降趋势.各类自然输入要素的生态效率总体呈逐步提高趋势,其中COD排放、SO2排放和用水总量的生态效率年均增长率分别达18.59％、14.85％和14.13％,这3个指标处于强脱钩状态,其他指标均处于弱脱钩状态.总体而言,经济增长与环境保护的矛盾有所缓解,但能源的大量投入导致碳排放压力仍较大.     

盐池北部风沙区土地利用变化的社会经济效应

以盐池北部风沙区为研究区域,利用1996—2007年土地利用变更调查与社会经济统计数据,借助典型相关分析,提取沙区农村土地利用变化对社会经济发展影响的主要方面。结果表明：（1）研究区土地利用变化对农村经济总体水平、经济结构、社会发展具有显著影响;（2）种植业、林业、牧业产值与粮食总产量是衡量研究区农村经济总体水平的重要指标,耕地、林地、居民点、沙地组成对其影响显著;（3）人口产业结构与居民收入结构反映了研究区农村社会发展、劳动力就业情况,受林地和沙地组成影响较大;（4）林地和沙地组成对地区农业结构,尤其是林业产值比重影响较大。沙区土地利用变化的社会经济效应分析,为土地利用结构调整方向提供依据,目的是促进沙区种植业结构调整、林牧业发展、农村劳动力合理分配。     

天津市环境空气中氮氧化物污染及防治策略

对天津市2004-2008年环境空气中的NO2污染状况及变化趋势进行了系统分析,中心城区污染呈总体下降趋势,但仍是污染较重区域,滨海新区污染呈明显加重趋势。对主要污染源的排放分析表明,工业污染和汽车尾气污染为影响空气质量的主要因素,排放量分别占53.1%-67.6%和28.7%-44.0%。认为加大工业污染源NOX减排力度、实施严格的机动车排放标准和改善能源结构是控制NOX污染的重要措施。     

经济发展与污染排放的空间错位分析

经济增长必然带来污染物的排放,但从空间上看,由于各地区在技术水平、产业结构、污染治理等方面的差异,经济总量与污染物排放量并非完全地呈正比例关系,两者存在不完全协同、匹配的现象（即空间错位）。为定量分析省域尺度上经济总量与污染排放的空间错位现象,分别以GDP和SO2排放量代表经济发展和污染物排放量,借鉴城市地理学中错位概念构建了空间错位指数模型,并分析不同要素对空间错位的影响。结果表明：2000-2010年,（1）中国 SO2排放量总体呈现先上升后下降的趋势,由2000年的1965.8×104 t增长至2006年的2588.7×104 t,至2010年降至2182.9×104 t;（2）中国经济增长与SO2排放量之间存在一定程度的空间错位现象,空间错位指数在0.25左右;（3）分阶段看,2000-2007年的错位现象有所扩大,而2007-2010年的错位现象缩小;（4）广东、贵州、山西、江苏、浙江、内蒙古等少数省份经济增长与污染排放的不匹配是造成空间错位的主要原因;（5）SO2排放量的变化缩小了空间错位现象,而2000-2006年经济的不均衡增长加剧了空间错位现象,2006-2010年经济增长则缩小了空间错位现象。研究结果对于调整区域经济结构、降低污染物排放具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Sustainable development indicators: a case study on the city of Flagstaff and Coconino county

The application of capitalist theory and the perception of an autonomous economy have created a range of environmental and social ramifications not addressed via traditional economic reasoning. In order to effectively and efficiently abate sustainability issues, the sustainable development discourse developed evaluation methods such as sustainable development indicators to gauge progress towards sustainability in communities without using traditional cost–benefit methods of analysis. The indicators created in this work are intended to be applied as a method of project evaluation in local community development departments. Using local growth management policy as a basis, these indicators have been designed to show how a development project contributes to policy goals that relate to all three dimensions of sustainability: environmental, economic, and socio-economic.     

软约束机制下的生态预算理论的问题及对策

在分权体制框架下,约束机制软化导致地方政府放大其自利性偏好,在一定程度上成为可持续发展的减项。表现为：在当前政府绩效考核的经济指标压力下扩大自然资源的投入;与资源消耗主体博弈的经济人行为导致不规范的环境资源分配,使环境目标和环境管理目标的实现呈现高成本特征;与中央政府相较的信息优势导致全局性的非理性资源的浪费等。生态预算是ICLEI参照财政预算的程序创建的促进环境资源有效配置和可持续管理的政府工具,其以强可持续发展为目标,采用实物指标度量环境资源在社会经济活动中的实际流量,强调约束支出控制,以保持环境资源全部价值在代内和代际间的平衡。我国在引进生态预算监督制约机制的路径选择及模式设计上,可能会出现因现实文化的惯性、双重代理机制、体制内监督等问题导致的生态预算约束软化,改进方向在于重视环境-经济-社会一体化考核的作用、确定合理的激励方式、由社会审计评价和监督生态预算执行,从而逐步走向制度完善的进程。     

实现传统经济向生态经济的转变

认为生态环境危机的出现，归根结蒂，在于人类社会的价值观存在着重大的错误以及由此而采取的经济发展模式存在着重大的错误；要缓解生态环境危机，人类社会必须改变价值观，改变经济发展模式，实现传统经济向生态经济的转变，走可持续发展的道路；为了实现这种转变，人类在经济活动中，必须遵循生态经济规律，建立企业生态经济管理模式，合理利用资源，优化产业结构，重视经济效益、社会效益和生态效益的协调和统一。文章还认为，为了实现这种转变，从联合国到个人，各国政府、各种组织、各行各业，都必须行动起来，参与生态经济建设。最后提出和讨论了生态经济学今后应该加强研究的几个问题。     

Accounting for Cadmium: Tracking Emissions of Cadmium From the Global Economy

This paper examines the flow of cadmium through the global economy, with the aim of quantifying emissions of cadmium into the environment as a result of anthropogenic activities. First, a materials balance methodology is presented as the most appropriate means of assessing cadmium emissions from a wide range of anthropogenic sources. This is then applied to the best available data, from a variety of sources, to arrive at estimated flows of cadmium. Results are presented for 10 geo-political world regions and for a range of economic activities including non-ferrous metals production, iron and steel production, combustion of fossil fuels, fertilizer manufacture and use, cement production and the manufacture, use and disposal of cadmium containing products. Initially, this analysis partitions the total flow of cadmium into three major categories: atmospheric emissions, water-borne effluents and solid or bulked waste arisings. the paper then suggests a probable further partition of the initial emissions into different environmental media.     

Emergy analysis of the urban metabolism of Beijing

Cities can be modeled as if they were superorganisms with a range of metabolic processes. Research on this urban metabolism can contribute to solving urban environmental problems by revealing details of the metabolic throughput of the system. A key issue is how to find a common basis for measuring the environmental and economic values. By providing a single unified unit, emergy theory integrates the natural and socioeconomic systems and thoroughly evaluates a system's metabolism. We analyzed Beijing's urban metabolic system using emergy synthesis to evaluate its environmental resources, economy, and environmental and economic relations with the regions outside the city during 14 years of development. We compared Beijing's emergy indices with those of five other Chinese cities and of China as a whole to assess Beijing's relative development status. These indices are the emergy self-support ratio (metabolic dependence), the environmental load ratio (metabolic loading), empower density (metabolic pressure), emergy used per person (metabolic intensity per capita), and the monetary equivalent of emergy (emdollars; metabolic intensity). Based on our emergy analysis, Beijing's socioeconomic system is not self-sufficient, and depends greatly on external environmental resources. Its GDP is supported by a high percentage of emergy purchased from outside the city. During the study period, Beijing's urban system showed an increasing dependence on external resources for its economic development. Beijing's loading and pressure on the ecological environment is continuously increasing, accompanied by continuously increasing human emergy consumption. In the future, it will become increasingly necessary to improve Beijing's metabolic efficiency.     

Accounting for Cadmium: Tracking Emissions of Cadmium From the Global Economy

This paper examines the flow of cadmium through the global economy, with the aim of quantifying emissions of cadmium into the environment as a result of anthropogenic activities. First, a materials balance methodology is presented as the most appropriate means of assessing cadmium emissions from a wide range of anthropogenic sources. This is then applied to the best available data, from a variety of sources, to arrive at estimated flows of cadmium. Results are presented for 10 geo-political world regions and for a range of economic activities including non-ferrous metals production, iron and steel production, combustion of fossil fuels, fertilizer manufacture and use, cement production and the manufacture, use and disposal of cadmium containing products. Initially, this analysis partitions the total flow of cadmium into three major categories: atmospheric emissions, water-borne effluents and solid or bulked waste arisings. the paper then suggests a probable further partition of the initial emissions into different environmental media.     

Evaluating environmental and economic benefits of yellow dust storm-related policies in north China

Yellow-dust storms (YDSs) have attracted increasing attention worldwide in the past decade. They can extensively disrupt socioeconomic activities and pose hazards to ecosystems, as well as to human health. In recent years, China has invested multi-billions of dollars to mitigate the impact of YDSs. However, the effectiveness of such YDS control programmes has rarely been evaluated. This research develops a causal model to quantify the environmental benefits of YDS control programmes in China, and further employs regional economic models to evaluate the ensuing economic impacts. The economic benefits generated from the YDS control programmes should remain stable across the years, primarily because of the multiplier effect of the investments, while the environmental benefits tend to decline over time. Our results suggest that YDS control programmes should consider stimulating local economic activities in addition to environmental goals in order to be cost-effective and sustainable in the long term.     

Human impact on the landscape of small islands in the West-Estonian archipelago

Research on the development of the interrelationships between society and environment is crucial for the understanding of contemporary landscapes. The West-Estonian archipelago provides an opportunity for such investigations because of its small size, landscape diversity, and well-defined economic activities. The contemporary landscapes of the islands reflect environmental changes resulting from centuries of human activity. This paper describes both natural and human factors in the change in landscape of small Estonian islands during the last centuries. During the period 1850–1940, human activity diversified the landscape structure. During World War II, with the establishment of Soviet rule, the islets were depopulated; their landscape became more uniform and lost their economic and ecological vitality. The re-establishment of private ownership of land and a market economy is predicted to result in positive changes in the landscape of the islets.     

Human impact on the landscape of small islands in the West-Estonian archipelago

Research on the development of the interrelationship between society and environment is crucial for the understanding of contemporary landscapes. The West-Estonian archipelago provides an opportunity for such investigations because of its small size, landscape diversity, and well-defined economic activities. The contemporary landscapes of the islands reflect environmental changes resulting from centuries of human activity. This paper describes both natural and human factors in the change in landscape of small Estonian islands during the last centuries. During the period 1850–1940, human activity diversified the landscape structure. During World War II, with the establishment of Soviet rule, the islets were depopulated; their landscape became more uniform and lost their economic and ecological vitality. The re-establishment of private ownership of land and a market economy is predicted to result in positive changes in the landscape of the islets.     

Economic Development and the Conservation of Large Carnivores

Conserving large carnivores in North America hinges on protecting vast wildlands, a strategy often assumed to carry significant economic costs in terms of jobs and income foregone. Using case studies, we tested whether there is enough evidence to support the assertion that the protection of wildlands is detrimental to economic development in the northern U.S. Rocky Mountains and the Rocky Mountains of southern British Columbia and Alberta. We analyzed employment and income trends in northwestern Montana (U.S.A.) for counties with a high degree of wildland protection versus counties with high levels of resource extraction and little wildland protection. Employment and personal income levels in "wilderness" counties grew faster than in "resource-extraction" counties. Wilderness counties also showed higher degrees of economic diversification and lower unemployment rates. No direct cause-and-effect relationship was established between wildlands protection and economic development, but to the assertion that protecting wildland habitat for large carnivores is detrimental to a region's economy, enough counterevidence is presented to suggest an alternative hypothesis: the protection of wilderness habitat that sustains wild carnivores such as grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) and wolves ( Canis lupus ) does not have a detrimental effect on local or regional economies. Evidence presented suggests that economic growth is stimulated by environmental amenities. Further, case studies in southern British Columbia and Alberta in Canada and the Greater Yellowstone region, in the U.S., where environmental protection has been explicitly recognized as an economic development strategy, suggest that environmental protection and economic development are complementary goals. In some areas, however, "amenity-based" economic growth is rapidly leading to urban sprawl and subsequent loss of wildlife habitat, and there is a need for growth management.