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孟连,丽江地震前云南天文台时纬残差异常 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
本文分析了云南天文台光电等高仪自有观测以来的时纬残差异常与云南及其周邻地区大地震的对应关系;并报导了孟连、丽江地震前云南天文台的时纬残差均有明显异常。这再次证明时纬残差的明显异常可为台站周围的强震预测提供可靠信息 相似文献
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天文因素与中国大陆大震趋势研究 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
全面分析了20世纪发生于中国大陆的7.0级以上大地震与天文因素的关系,分析结果表明,20世纪中国大陆71%的大地震发生于月亮轨道(白道)与赤道交角变小的阶段,这说明月亮轨道运行至这一位置时将会是中国地震的活跃期.太阳活动及地球自转亦均与中国大地震的发生密切相关,太阳活动的谷年普遍都有大地震发生;地球自转速度加快时大地震多,20世纪地球自转速度加快时段发生的大地震占72%.经互相关分析发现,中国大陆大震活动滞后于太阳黑子相对数峰年约6年,滞后于地球自转最快年约12年.文中最后根据目前月亮白赤交角的变化,以及太阳活动与地球自转预测中国大陆下一个大地震活动幕可能开始于2006年,并有可能延续至2015年.在此期间内,中国大陆将会有多个M≥7.0的地震发生. 相似文献
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中国大地震的天文特征分析 总被引:11,自引:1,他引:11
全面分析了1900~1996年发生在中国的7.0级以上大地震的天文特征。分析结果表明,本世纪106次7.0级以上大地震中,71%发生于月亮轨道(白道)与赤道交角变小阶段,62%以上发生于月亮升交点黄经位于350°~210°期间。这说明月亮轨道运行至此将会是中国地震活跃期。中国人地震的发生与太阳活动及地球自转密切相关,太阳活动谷年普遍都有大地震发生;地球自转速度加快则大地震多,本世纪地球自转速度加快时段发生的大震占72%。文中最后还对未来两年的大震趋势提出了初步预测. 相似文献
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高邮-宝应M_S4.9地震是江苏陆地上22年来最显著的地震,震中位于江苏陆地中部地区,震前前兆异常丰富,异常的时空演化特征比较典型。震前2年显示震源区应力压性和周围张性特征,表现为水位、地电阻率和形变的群体准同步变化;震前1年集中出现小震条带活动的交汇现象;震前1月开始出现岩石裂隙变化的失稳现象,表现为周围水温、水化学的短期快速变化。高邮—宝应M_S4.9地震震前异常时空演化特征反映了周围岩石孕震过程中的变形和裂隙变化特征,对中强地震预测具有很好的借鉴意义。 相似文献
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对1983-11-07山东菏泽5.9级地震前地下流体前兆异常特征进行了识别与研究,分析了菏泽5.9级地震前地下流体前兆异常的阶段性、层次性和同步性特征,利用震前地下流体高频突变异常频次速率和异常频次累加值的变化,采用地下流体层次跟踪震情预测方法对菏泽5.9级地震长期、中期和短临三个时间尺度的震情进行了检验性预测。 相似文献
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对1983-11-07山东菏泽5.9级地震前地下流体前兆异常特征进行了识别与研究,分析了菏泽5.9级地震前地下流体前兆异常的阶段性、层次性和同步性特征,利用震前地下流体高频突变异常频次速率和异常频次累加值的变化,采用地下流体层次跟踪震情预测方法对菏泽5.9级地震长期、中期和短临三个时间尺度的震情进行了检验性预测. 相似文献
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云南近期3次中强震的天文背景 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
分析了澄江地震至丘北地震间云南发生的3次中强震时的天体位置、地球自转与太阳活动等天文背景,分析结果表明,尽管这3次地震的震级都较小,但都发生在震中所受引潮力变化较大时刻和太阳活动局部下降时段。 相似文献
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Malholland K 《Disasters》1985,9(4):247-258
In 1985 cholera has been a serious problem in the horn of Africa, particularly affecting the many famine victims and refugees in that region. In this paper the history of cholera in Africa is briefly summarized, as is the background to the current refugee situation in eastern Sudan. A cholera epidemic involving 1,175 cases in two adjacent refugee camps in eastern Sudan is described. In this epidemic there were thirteen inpatient deaths and thirty-eight known home deaths from cholera. The management of the epidemic is described in detail. Overall an average of 8 1. of intravenous fluid was used per case, a higher figure than was anticipated, probably because of the unexpected degree of vomiting and the shortage of trained nursing staff.
The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed. 相似文献
The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed. 相似文献
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The land borders of Evros, Greece, have been a common entry point for undocumented migrants on their way to Europe through Turkey. Adverse conditions, however, have resulted in many human casualties over the years. On the Greek side, 334 cadavers were retrieved between 2000 and 2014. This study provides a detailed forensic account of the humanitarian disaster in Evros to create an official scientific record of the situation. It showcases the gravity of the global issue of migration relating to health and mortality, and encourages communication and continual improvement of the approach and patterns of practices surrounding the subject. A retrospective statistical research review was conducted of border‐related fatalities between 2000 and 2014, assessing the age and gender of victims, the cause of death, the location of bodies, identification rates, and country of origin. Age ranged generally from 24 to 29 years, but infants and children were among the deceased. 相似文献
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Darfur farming and pastoralist livelihoods are both adaptations to the environmental variability that characterises the region. This article describes this adaptation and the longer‐term transformation of these specialised livelihoods from the perspective of local communities. Over several decades farmers and herders have experienced a continuous stream of climate, conflict and other shocks, which, combined with wider processes of change, have transformed livelihoods and undermined livelihood institutions. Their well‐rehearsed specialist strategies are now combined with new strategies to cope. These responses help people get by in the short term but risk antagonising not only their specialist strategies but also those of others. A combination of factors has undermined the former integration between farming and pastoralism and their livelihood institutions. Efforts to build resilience in similar contexts must take a long‐term view of livelihood adaptation as a specialisation, and consider the implications of new strategies for the continuity and integration of livelihood specialisations. 相似文献
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Joseph Chung 《Disasters》1987,11(1):40-48
Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have a severe impact on the social and economic activities of affected communities. For small island nations in the Pacific region, the effects can be devastating because of their smallness. FQi and several other countries in the region are vulnerable to such disasters as they are situated in the zone where cyclones occur frequently.
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems. 相似文献
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems. 相似文献
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Simon McCarthy Sylvia Tunstall Dennis Parker Hazel Faulkner Joe Howe 《Environmental Hazards》2007,7(3):179-192
Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties. 相似文献
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Sugimoto JD Labrique AB Ahmad S Rashid M Shamim AA Ullah B Klemm RD Christian P West KP 《Disasters》2011,35(2):329-345
The epidemiology of tornado-related disasters in the developing world is poorly understood. An August 2005 post-tornado cohort study in rural Bangladesh identified elevated levels of death and injury among the elderly (≥ 60 years of age) (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 8.9 (95 per cent confidence interval (CI): 3.9-20.2) and AOR = 1.6 (95 per cent CI: 1.4-1.8), respectively), as compared to 15-24 year-olds, and among those outdoors versus indoors during the tornado (AOR = 10.4 (95 per cent CI: 5.5-19.9) and AOR = 6.6 (95 per cent CI: 5.8-7.5), respectively). Females were 1.24 times (95 per cent CI: 1.15-1.33) more likely to be injured than males. Elevated risk of injury was significantly associated with structural damage to the house and tin construction materials. Seeking treatment was protective against death among the injured, odds ratio = 0.08 (95 per cent CI: 0.03-0.21). Further research is needed to develop injury prevention strategies and to address disparities in risk between age groups and between men and women. 相似文献
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中国内陆自然环境的干旱化与未来趋势 总被引:5,自引:2,他引:3
根据中国内陆陕西、甘肃部分地区509a旱涝资料和主要测站气象、水文实测数据,应用Word97图形处理系统,证明在526a序列中目前处在11a、50a滑动的干旱期。近46a气温上升了0.3℃,年降水减少了80mm,径流量减少了0.78%,出现了明显的干旱化,环境变化趋势不容乐观。 相似文献