An empirically derived taxonomy of pilot violation behavior

Violations occur when pilots deliberately break safety rules; they are a serious and vexing problem in aviation. Study one engaged cluster analysis, multidimensional scaling and Pathfinder network analysis on an experimentally derived similarity matrix of violation causes to discover the structure of violation reasoning. Using the insights so gained, a classification was constructed based on actor intent with four categories:

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Improvement. The intention is to increase safety or production, a desire to do better.

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Malevolent. The intention is to cause harm or reduce production, a desire to do damage.

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Indolent. The intention is to increase operator ease, a desire for lethargy.

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Hedonic. The intention is to increase operator excitement, a desire for sensation.

Study two tested the taxonomy for reliability by having aviation experts assign categories to six accident reports. The taxonomy was found to have a free-marginal multirater kappa of 0.82, which is considered excellent.     

Trends in accidents,disasters and risk sources in Europe

Most of the adverse impacts on man and/or the environment result from routine human activities such as the process industry, electricity generation and use, transport and agriculture (hazards, i.e. sources of risk). Apart from such essentially technological hazards, possibly resulting in “accidents”, human health and the environment can also be affected by natural hazards, possibly resulting in “disasters”, such as earthquakes or floods. This paper examines current trends in the risk sources and occurrences of four classes of such types of undesired events, entailing largely involuntary risk (e.g. neither car-driving nor smoking):

• •major accidents at fixed installations in the process industry,
• •incidents/accidents at nuclear installations,
• •marine transport and offshore installation accidents,
• •disasters caused by natural hazards and their potential exacerbation by human activities.

It aims to provide an integrated overview of such events in Europe (≡ 15 EU Member States, 4 EFTA, 13 PHARE, 7 TACIS and 5 other South and South Eastern European countries) during the last decade, estimating and interpreting trends in the number of risk sources and accidental events. For each type of event, specific “accident” definitions are given, illustrating the differences in the perception of the respective risk.     

Emergency braking is affected by the use of cruise control

Objective: We compared the differences in the braking response to vehicle collision between an active human emergency braking (control condition) and cruise control (CC) or adaptive cruise control (ACC).

Methods: In 11 male subjects, age 22 to 67 years, we measured the active emergency braking response during manual driving using the accelerator pedal (control condition) or in condition mimicking CC or ACC. In both conditions, we measured the brake reaction time (BRT), delay to produce the peak braking force (PBD), total emergency braking response (BRT + PBD), and peak braking force (PBF). Electromyograms of leg and thigh muscles were recorded during braking. The tonic vibratory response (TVR), Hoffman reflex (HR), and M-waves were recorded in leg muscles to explore the change in sensorimotor control.

Results: No difference in PBF, TVR amplitude, HR latency, and H_max/M_max ratio were found between the control and CC/ACC conditions. On the other hand, BRT and PBD were significantly lengthened in the CC/ACC condition (240 ± 13 ms and 704 ± 70 ms, respectively) compared to control (183 ± 7 ms and 568 ± 36 ms, respectively). BRT increased with the age of participants and the driving experience shortened PBD and increased PBF.

Conclusions: In male subjects, driving in a CC/ACC condition significantly delays the active emergency braking response to vehicle collision. This could result from higher amplitude of leg motion in the CC/ACC condition and/or by the age-related changes in motor control. Car and truck drivers must take account of the significant increase in the braking distance in a CC/ACC condition.     

Human error risk analysis in offshore emergencies

Human factors play an important role in the completion of emergency procedures. Human factors analysis is rooted in the concept that humans make errors, and the frequency and consequences of these errors are related to work environment, work culture, and procedures. This can be accounted for in the design of equipment, structures, processes, and procedures. As stress increases, the likelihood of human error also increases. Offshore installations are among the harshest and most stressful work environments in the world. The consequences of human error in an offshore emergency can be severe.A method has been developed to evaluate the risk of human error during offshore emergency musters. Obtaining empirical data was a difficult process, and often little information could be drawn from it. This was especially an issue in determining the consequences of failure to complete muster steps. Based on consequences from past incidents in the offshore industry and probabilities of human error, the level of risk and its tolerability are determined. Using the ARAMIS (accidental risk assessment methodology for industries) approach to safety barrier analysis, a protocol for choosing and evaluating safety measures to reduce and re-assess the risk was developed. The method is assessed using a case study, the Ocean Odyssey incident, to determine its effectiveness. The results of the methodology agree with the analysis of survivor experiences of the Ocean Odyssey incident.     

The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire as a predictor of accidents: a meta-analysis

Introduction

Through a meta-analysis, this study investigated the relation of errors and violations from the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) to accident involvement.

Method

We identified 174 studies using the DBQ, and a correlation of self-reported accidents with errors could be established in 32 samples and with violations in 42 samples.

Results

The results showed that violations predicted accidents with an overall correlation of .13 when based on zero-order effects reported in tabular form, and with an overall correlation of .07 for effects reported in multivariate analysis, in tables reporting only significant effects, or in the text of a study. Errors predicted accidents with overall correlations of .10 and .06, respectively. The meta-analysis also showed that errors and violations correlated negatively with age and positively with exposure, and that males reported fewer errors and more violations than females. Supplementary analyses were conducted focusing on the moderating role of age, and on predicting accidents prospectively and retrospectively. Potential sources of bias are discussed, such as publication bias, measurement error, and consistency motif.

Impact on Industry

The DBQ is a prominent measurement scale to examine drivers’ self-reported aberrant behaviors. The present study provides information about the validity of the DBQ and therefore has strong relevance for researchers and road safety practitioners who seek to obtain insight into driving behaviors of a population of interest.     

Analysis of bus collision and non-collision incidents using transit ITS and other archived operations data

Introduction

This paper analyzes factors contributing to bus operations safety incidents at TriMet, the transit provider for the Portland Oregon metropolitan region.

Method

The analysis focuses on 4,631 collision and non-collision incidents that occurred between 2006 and 2009. Empirical analysis of these incidents draws on a wide array of operator-level data recovered by transit ITS technologies in combination with information from TriMet's human resources, scheduling, and customer relations databases. Incident frequencies are estimated in relation to operators' demographic characteristics, employment status, assigned work characteristics, service delivery and performance indicators, temporal factors, and customer information.

Results

Apart from identifying factors that are empirically related to the frequency of safety incidents, the findings offer insights into operations policies and practices that hold promise for improving safety.

Impact on Industry

Potential for safety improvement based on analysis of archived operations and human resource data.     

Human factors analysis of China's confined space operation accidents from 2008 to 2018

In recent years, several accidents in confined spaces have threatened the safety of staff and property in industries. A statistical analysis of 120 fatal accidents involving confined space operations in China from 2008 to 2018 was conducted in this study. The causes and characteristics of confined space operations accidents (CSOAs) were summarized. Focusing on the impact of human factors on CSOAs, the HFACS-MCS (HFACS-Modified Confined Space Accident) model, which consists of 5 levels and 21 factors, was established based on HFACS (Human Factors Analysis and Classification System). The chi-square (χ2) test and the OR analysis were implemented to analyze the statistically significant correlations between adjacent levels in the model. Finally, three human influence paths in CSOAs were derived. The results show that inadequate safety culture, organizational process vulnerability, inadequate supervision, supervisory violations, decision errors, and operational violations are the principal causes of the accidents. Besides, hurried and ad hoc rescue often caused more casualties. The targeted pre-accident prevention and post-accident emergency rescue countermeasures are proposed to prevent the recurrence of CSOAs and secondary accidents.     

船舶溢油应急反应人的可靠性分析研究

为减小船舶溢油事故应急反应人员失误概率,提升应急处置效果,在对应急人员可靠性主要影响因素识别的基础上,利用模糊贝叶斯网络(BN)建立船舶溢油应急人的可靠性分析(HRA)模型,将应急反应流程抽象为可进行概率推算的BN,实现单个应急任务和全过程人的可靠性的量化评估,并依据该模型对一起船舶溢油事故进行实例研究。结果表明,首先模糊集值专家评估较好地解决应急人员可靠性情境依赖性强,难以量化评估的问题;其次,BN卓越的概率推理性能实现由单个应急任务向全过程人的可靠性的推算;最后得到应急反应人的可靠性主要取决于关键应急任务的完成情况和相关情境因素的影响。     

Biofidelity assessment of the 6-year-old ATDs in lateral impact

Objectives: The objective of this study was to assess and compare the current lateral impact biofidelity of the shoulder, thorax, abdomen, and pelvis of the Q6, Q6s, and Hybrid III (HIII) 6-year-old anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs) through lateral impact testing.

Methods: A series of lateral impact pendulum tests, vertical drop tests, and Wayne State University (WSU) sled tests was performed, based on the procedures detailed in ISO/TR 9790 (1999) and scaling to the 6-year-old using Irwin et al. (2002 Irwin AL, Mertz HJ, Elhagediab AM, Moss S. Guidelines for assessing the biofidelity of side impact dummies of various sizes and ages. Stapp Car Crash J. 2002;46:297–319.[PubMed] , [Google Scholar]). The HIII used in this study was tested with the Ford-designed abdomen described in Rouhana (2006 Rouhana SW. Abdominal impact injury research—a review. J Biomech. 2006;39(Suppl 1):S157–S158. [Google Scholar]) and Elhagediab et al. (2006 Elhagediab AM, Hardy WN, Rouhana SW. Advancements in the rate-sensitive abdomen for the Hybrid III family of dummies. J Biomech. 2006;39(Suppl 1):S158.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The data collected from the 3 different ATDs were filtered using SAE J211 (SAE International 2003 SAE International. Surface Vehicle Recommended Practice. Instrumentation for Impact Test—Part 1—Electronic Instrumentation. Warrendale, PA: SAE International; 2003. SAE Standard J211-1. [Google Scholar]), aligned using the methodology described by Donnelly and Moorhouse (2012 Donnelly BR, Moorhouse K. Optimized phasing of PMHS response curves for biofidelity targets. Paper presented at: IRCOBI Conference; 2012. [Google Scholar]), and compared for each body region tested (shoulder, thorax, abdomen, and pelvis). The biofidelity performance in lateral impact for the 3 ATDs was assessed against the scaled biofidelity targets published in Irwin et al. (2002 Irwin AL, Mertz HJ, Elhagediab AM, Moss S. Guidelines for assessing the biofidelity of side impact dummies of various sizes and ages. Stapp Car Crash J. 2002;46:297–319.[PubMed] , [Google Scholar]), the abdominal biofidelity target suggested in van Ratingen et al. (1997 van Ratingen M, Twisk D, Schrooten M, Beusenberg M. Biomechanically based design and performance targets for a 3-year-old child crash dummy for frontal and side impact. Paper presented at: 41st Stapp Car Crash Conference; 1997. [Google Scholar]), and the biofidelity targets published in Rhule et al. (2013 Rhule H, Donnelly B, Moorhouse K, Kang YS. A methodology for generating objective targets for quantitatively assessing the biofidelity of crash test dummies. Paper presented at: 23rd Enhanced Safety of Vehicles Conference; 2013. [Google Scholar]). Regional and overall biofidelity rankings for each of the 3 ATDs were performed using both the ISO 9790 biofidelity rating system (ISO/TR 9790 1999) and the NHTSA's external biofidelity ranking system (BRS; Rhule et al. 2013 Rhule H, Donnelly B, Moorhouse K, Kang YS. A methodology for generating objective targets for quantitatively assessing the biofidelity of crash test dummies. Paper presented at: 23rd Enhanced Safety of Vehicles Conference; 2013. [Google Scholar]).

Results: All 3 6-year-old ATD's pelvises were rated as least biofidelic of the 4 body regions tested, based on both the ISO and BRS biofidelity rating systems, followed by the shoulder and abdomen, respectively. The thorax of all 3 ATDs was rated as the most biofidelic body region using the aforementioned biofidelity rating systems. The HIII 6-year-old ATD was rated last in overall biofidelity of the 3 tested ATDs, based on both rating systems. The Q6s ATD was rated as having the best overall biofidelity using both rating systems.

Conclusions: All 3 ATDs are more biofidelic in the thorax and abdomen than the shoulder and pelvis, with the pelvis being the least biofidelic of all 4 tested body regions. None of the 3 tested 6-year-old ATDs had an overall ranking of 2.0 or less, based on the BRS ranking. Therefore, it is expected that none of the 3 ATDs would mechanically respond like a postmortem human subject (PMHS) in a lateral impact crash test based on this ranking system. With respect to the ISO biofidelity rating, the HIII dummy would be considered unsuitable and the Q-series dummies would be considered marginal for assessing side impact occupant protection.     

Are there higher pedestrian fatalities in larger cities?: A scaling analysis of 115 to 161 largest cities in the United States

Objective: In 2012, 4,743 pedestrians were killed in the United States, representing 14% of total traffic fatalities. The number of pedestrians injured was higher at 76,000. Therefore, 36 out of 52 of the largest cities in the United States have adopted a citywide target of reducing pedestrian fatalities. The number of cities adopting the reduction goal during 2011 and 2012 increased rapidly with 8 more cities. We examined the scaling relationship of pedestrian fatality counts as a function of the population size of 115 to 161 large U.S. cities during the period of 1994 to 2011. We also examined the scaling relationship of nonpedestrian and total traffic fatality counts as a function of the population size.

Methods: For the data source of fatality measures we used Traffic Safety Facts Fatality Analysis Reporting System/General Estimates System annual reports published each year from 1994 to 2011 by the NHTSA. Using the data source we conducted both annual cross-sectional and panel data bivariate and multivariate regression models. In the construction of the estimated functional relationship between traffic fatality measures and various factors, we used the simple power function for urban scaling used by Bettencourt et al. (2007 Bettencourt LMA, Lobo J, Helbing D, Kühnert C, West GB. Growth, innovation, scaling and the pace of life in cities. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2007;104:7301–7306.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2010 Bettencourt LMA, Lobo J, Strumsky D, West GB. Urban scaling and its deviations: revealing the structure of wealth, innovation and crime across cities. PLoS ONE. 2010;5:e13541.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and the refined STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) model used in Dietz and Rosa (1994 Dietz T, Rosa EA. Rethinking the environmental impacts of population, affluence and technology. Human Ecology Review. 1994;1:277–300. [Google Scholar], 1997 Dietz T, Rosa EA. Effects of population and affluence on CO₂ emissions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 1997;94:175–179.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and York et al. (2003 York R, Rosa EA, Dietz T. STIRPAT, IPAT and IMPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts. Ecol Econ. 2003;46:351–365.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).

Results: We found that the scaling relationship display diseconomies of scale or sublinear for pedestrian fatalities. However, the relationship displays a superlinear relationship in case of nonpedestrian fatalities. The scaling relationship for total traffic fatality counts display a nearly linear pattern. When the relationship was examined by the 4 subgroups of cities with different population sizes, the most pronounced sublinear scaling relationships for all 3 types of fatality counts was discovered for the subgroup of megacities with a population of more than 1 million.

Conclusions: The scaling patterns of traffic fatalities of subgroups of cities depend on population sizes of the cities in subgroups. In particular, 9 megacities with populations of more than 1 million are significantly different from the remaining cities and should be viewed as a totally separate group. Thus, analysis of the patterns of traffic fatalities needs to be conducted within the group of megacities separately from the other cities with smaller population sizes for devising prevention policies to reduce traffic fatalities in both megacities and smaller cities.     

Literature review on risky driving videos on YouTube: Unknown effects and areas for concern?

Objective: Entry of terms reflective of extreme risky driving behaviors into the YouTube website yields millions of videos. The majority of the top 20 highly subscribed automotive YouTube websites are focused on high-performance vehicles, high speed, and often risky driving. Moreover, young men are the heaviest users of online video sharing sites, overall streaming more videos, and watching them longer than any other group. The purpose of this article is to review the literature on YouTube videos and risky driving.

Methods: A systematic search was performed using the following specialized database sources—Scopus, PubMed, Web of Science, ERIC, and Google Scholar—for the years 2005–2015 for articles in the English language. Search words included “YouTube AND driving,” “YouTube AND speeding,” “YouTube AND racing.”

Results: No published research was found on the content of risky driving videos or on the effects of these videos on viewers. This literature review presents the current state of our published knowledge on the topic, which includes a review of the effects of mass media on risky driving cognitions; attitudes and behavior; similarities and differences between mass and social media; information on the YouTube platform; psychological theories that could support YouTube's potential effects on driving behavior; and 2 examples of risky driving behaviors (“sidewalk skiing” and “ghost riding the whip”) suggestive of varying levels of modeling behavior in subsequent YouTube videos.

Conclusions: Every month about 1 billion individuals are reported to view YouTube videos (ebizMBA Guide 2015 ebizMBA Guide. Top 15 most popular websites. 2015. Available at: http://www.ebizmba.com/articles/most-popular-websites [Google Scholar]) and young men are the heaviest users, overall streaming more YouTube videos and watching them longer than women and other age groups (Nielsen 2011 Nielsen. State of the media: the social media report. Q3. 2011. Available at: http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/reports/2011/social-media-report-q3.html [Google Scholar]). This group is also the most dangerous group in traffic, engaging in more per capita violations and experiencing more per capita injuries and fatalities (e.g., Parker et al. 1995 Parker D, Reason J, Manstead ASR, Stradling SG. Driving errors, driving violations and accident involvement. Ergonomics. 1995;38:1036–1048.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Reason et al. 1990 Reason J, Manstead A, Stradling S, Baxter J, Campbell K. Errors and violations on the roads: a real distinction? Ergonomics. 1990;33:1315–1332.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Transport Canada 2015 Vingilis E, Yilderim-Yenier Z, Fischer P, et al. Self-concept as a risky driver: Mediating the relationship between racing video games and on-road driving violations in a community-based sample. Transp Res Part F Traffic Psychol Behav. 2016;43:15–23. [Google Scholar]; World Health Organization 2015 World Health Organization. Road traffic injuries. Fact sheet no. 358. 2015. Available at: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs358/en/# Accessed March 14, 2016. [Google Scholar]). YouTube also contains many channels depicting risky driving videos. The time has come for the traffic safety community to begin exploring these relationships.     

Bicycle helmet use among children in the United States: The effects of legislation, personal and household factors

Introduction

Children ages 5-14 years have the highest rate of bicycle-related injuries in the country. Bicycle helmets can prevent head and brain injuries, which represent the most serious type of bicycle-related injury.

Objectives

This paper compares children's bicycle helmet use to that estimated from an earlier study, and explores regional differences in helmet use by existing helmet legislation.

Methods

This study was a cross-sectional, list-assisted random-digit-dial telephone survey. Interviews were completed by 9,684 respondents during 2001-2003. The subset with at least one child in the household age 5-14 years (2,409 respondents) answered questions about bicycle helmet use for a randomly selected child in their household.

Results

Almost half (48%) of the children always wore their helmet, 23% sometimes wore their helmet, and 29% never wore their helmet. Helmet wearing was significantly associated with race, ethnicity, and child age but was not associated with the sex of the child. Other significant predictors of use included household income, household education, census region, and bicycle helmet law status. Statewide laws were more effective than laws covering smaller areas. The proportion of children who always wore a helmet increased from 25% in 1994 to 48% in 2001-2002. Significant increases in helmet use from 20% to 26% were seen among both sexes, younger (5-9 years) and older (10-14 years) children, and in all four regions of the country.

Conclusions

While there has been substantial progress in the number of children who always wear their helmets, more than half do not. Further progress will require using a combination of methods that have been shown to successfully promote consistent helmet use. Impact on industry: minimal.