Backcasting — a framework for strategic planning

Backcasting is a planning methodology that is particularly helpful when problems at hand are complex and when present trends are part of the problems. When applied in planning towards sustainability, backcasting can increase the likelihood of handling the ecologically complex issues in a systematic and coordinated way, and also to foresee certain changes, even from a self-beneficial point of view, of the market and increase the chances of a relatively strong economic performance. To that end, backcasting should be performed from a set of non-overlapping principles that are general enough to be helpful in the coordination of different sectors of society and in business, as well as to cover relevant aspects of sustainability. Such principles are helpful when developing reliable non-overlapping indicators for monitoring of the development when coordinating various measures from different sectors of the society or within individual firms with each other, and when handling trade-offs in a relevant way. Furthermore, the transition can benefit from being undertaken in a strategic step-by-step manner, by which such investments search for those that combine two qualities: (i) technical flexibility to serve as platforms for future investments in line with non-overlapping principles of sustainability, and (ii) good possibilities of giving relatively fast return on investment. This framework for planning is developed together with the Natural Step, a non-government organization, and in collaboration with a network of scientists and business. Examples are given from firms applying the framework.     

Visions for the future of transport: Approaching consensus?

Many cities and national authorities have made substantial progress in developing transport strategies to reconcile environmental pressures with the increasing demand for travel. However, there is still some doubt as to what are the key ingredients of a successful strategy and progress in implementing such changes has been slow. Research is needed to better understand what are the essential ingredients to a balanced transport policy, the constraints, which are preventing these from being implemented, and the acceptability of such changes. This paper reports on the outcomes of a project funded under the Rees Jeffreys Road Fund research programme 'From Realism to Reality', which aims to identify the elements necessary for a successful transport policy in the UK into the 21st century, The project seeks to develop a vision for the transport system of the future through an understanding of the extent of the current problems in the transport sector and an examination of the range and effectiveness of options and instruments available to resolve them. The paper examines a range of visions that are currently in the public domain. Results show that there is a degree of consistency in the general aims and objectives of such visions, but that there is rather less consensus in the means proposed to achieve those aims.     

The specification of sustainable urban transport strategies

Transport strategies have been developed for nine European cities to achieve optimum performance in terms of a range of objective functions. The functions selected represent economic efficiency, sustainability and a combination of these. The strategies have been based on combinations of a standard set of policy instruments, including public transport infrastructure, frequency and fares, road capacity increases, low cost road pricing and parking charges. The optimisation method is described, and results presented. The reactions of city authorities to the proposed strategies are discussed and implications for transport policy outlined.     

Prioritizing debt conversion opportunities for marine conservation

Incentivized debt conversion is a financing mechanism that can assist countries with a heavy debt burden to bolster their long-term domestic investment in nature conservation. The Nature Conservancy, an international conservation-based nongovernmental organization, is adapting debt conversions to support marine conservation efforts by small island developing states and coastal countries. Prioritizing debt conversion opportunities according to their potential return on investment can increase the impact and effectiveness of this finance mechanism. We developed guidance on how to do so with a decision-support approach that relies on a novel threat-based adaptation of cost-effectiveness analysis. We constructed scenarios by varying parameters of the approach, including enabling conditions, expected benefits, and threat classifications. Incorporating both abatable and unabatable threats affected priorities across planning scenarios. Similarly, differences in scenario construction resulted in unique solution sets for top priorities. We show how environmental organizations, private entities, and investment banks can adopt structured prioritization frameworks for making decisions about conservation finance investments, such as debt conversions. Our guidance can accommodate a suite of social, ecological, and economic considerations, making the approach broadly applicable to other conservation finance mechanisms or investment strategies that seek to establish a transparent process for return-on-investment decision-making.     

Constraints of philanthropy on determining the distribution of biodiversity conservation funding

Caught between ongoing habitat destruction and funding shortfalls, conservation organizations are using systematic planning approaches to identify places that offer the highest biodiversity return per dollar invested. However, available tools do not account for the landscape of funding for conservation or quantify the constraints this landscape imposes on conservation outcomes. Using state‐level data on philanthropic giving to and investments in land conservation by a large nonprofit organization, we applied linear regression to evaluate whether the spatial distribution of conservation philanthropy better explained expenditures on conservation than maps of biodiversity priorities, which were derived from a planning process internal to the organization and return on investment (ROI) analyses based on data on species richness, land costs, and existing protected areas. Philanthropic fund raising accounted for considerably more spatial variation in conservation spending (r² = 0.64) than either of the 2 systematic conservation planning approaches (r² = 0.08–0.21). We used results of one of the ROI analyses to evaluate whether increases in flexibility to reallocate funding across space provides conservation gains. Small but plausible “tax” increments of 1–10% on states redistributed to the optimal funding allocation from the ROI analysis could result in gains in endemic species protected of 8.5–80.2%. When such increases in spatial flexibility are not possible, conservation organizations should seek to cultivate increased support for conservation in priority locations. We used lagged correlations of giving to and spending by the organization to evaluate whether investments in habitat protection stimulate future giving to conservation. The most common outcome at the state level was that conservation spending quarters correlated significantly and positively with lagged fund raising quarters. In effect, periods of high fund raising for biodiversity followed (rather than preceded) periods of high expenditure on land conservation projects, identifying one mechanism conservation organizations could explore to seed greater activity in priority locations. Our results demonstrate how limitations on the ability of conservation organizations to reallocate their funding across space can impede organizational effectiveness and elucidate ways conservation planning tools could be more useful if they quantified and incorporated these constraints.     

Incorporating the Effects of Socioeconomic Uncertainty into Priority Setting for Conservation Investment

Abstract:  Uncertainty in the implementation and outcomes of conservation actions that is not accounted for leaves conservation plans vulnerable to potential changes in future conditions. We used a decision-theoretic approach to investigate the effects of two types of investment uncertainty on the optimal allocation of global conservation resources for land acquisition in the Mediterranean Basin. We considered uncertainty about (1) whether investment will continue and (2) whether the acquired biodiversity assets are secure, which we termed transaction uncertainty and performance uncertainty, respectively. We also developed and tested the robustness of different rules of thumb for guiding the allocation of conservation resources when these sources of uncertainty exist. In the presence of uncertainty in future investment ability (transaction uncertainty), the optimal strategy was opportunistic, meaning the investment priority should be to act where uncertainty is highest while investment remains possible. When there was a probability that investments would fail (performance uncertainty), the optimal solution became a complex trade-off between the immediate biodiversity benefits of acting in a region and the perceived longevity of the investment. In general, regions were prioritized for investment when they had the greatest performance certainty, even if an alternative region was highly threatened or had higher biodiversity value. The improved performance of rules of thumb when accounting for uncertainty highlights the importance of explicitly incorporating sources of investment uncertainty and evaluating potential conservation investments in the context of their likely long-term success.     

Reduction of CO2 emission by optimally tracking a pre-defined target

The recent global financial crisis has highlighted the need for balanced and efficient investments in the reduction of the greenhouse effect caused by emissions of CO₂ on a global scale. In a previous paper, the authors proposed a mathematical model describing the dynamic relation of CO₂ emission with investment in reforestation and clean technology. An efficient allocation of resources to reduce the greenhouse effect has also been proposed. Here, this model is used to provide estimates of the investments needed in land reforestation and in the adoption of clean technologies for an optimum emission and abatement of CO₂, for the period of 1996–2014. The required investments are computed to minimize deviations with respect to the emission targets proposed in the Kyoto Protocol for European Countries. The emission target can be achieved by 2014 with investments in reforestation peaking in 2004, and a reduction of the expected GDP of 42%, relative to 2006. Investments in clean technology should increase between 2008 and 2010 with maximum transfer figures around 70 million American dollars. Total (cumulative) costs are, however, relatively high depending on the price of carbon abatement and the rate at which the expected CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere should be reduced. Results highlight the advantages for policy makers to be able to manage investments in climate policy more efficiently, controlling optimum transfers based on a portfolio of actions that tracks a pre-defined CO₂ concentration target.     

The production of lumber using chainsaws in Guyana

SUMMARY

The structure, conduct and performance, and the environmental impacts of the chainsaw lumber production sector in Guyana are investigated. Chainsaws are a highly mobile lumber technology that is used to rip or produce lumber within the forest. Chainsaw lumbering operations have become the dominant lumber producer for the domestic market. Production costs are only 53% of wholesale lumber prices. On a ms basis, chainsaw operations' net profit is 80% of the gross price paid for logs at sawmills and more than twice the profit of firms engaged in the harvesting and transportation of logs to sawmills. Sawmills recognize this cost advantage and are increasingly using chainsaws in the production of lumber.

The handling and transportation of chainsawn lumber within the forest is environmentally less damaging than log production. The log recovery rate is 10–15% for chainsaw operations, as compared to the sawmill average of 40–45%. Log residue from chainsaw operations is left within the forest which promotes faster forest regrowth, while that at sawmills is wasted. Chainsaw operations harvest immature trees, engage in the harvesting of selective species, over-harvest trees per unit area of land, and engage in frequent reentry of the forest. Because of these practices, the chainsaw lumber sector is not environmentally sustainable and will require regulation. Policies that follow a non-market solution will be required in regulation.     

The smartline approach to coastal vulnerability and social risk assessment applied to a segment of the east coast of Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil

A growing awareness of increasing trends in coastal erosion and flooding due to climate change is triggering a demand for the rapid assessment of the potential responses of the coastlines around the world, principally in locations where human occupation is especially endangered. Investigations of present and future physical vulnerability and associated social risk have, therefore, become crucial for coastal management. In order to provide a quick and simple methodology for the identification of vulnerable coastal segments, Sharples (2006) has proposed a mapping methodology, called the smartline approach, which consists of representing, by means of simple lines, a geomorphic classification of the hinterland, backshore and beaches. The aim of this paper is to apply the smartline approach to coastal vulnerability assessment with inclusion of social data. The results show that this methodology is appropriate for the indication of coastal segments with varying degrees of vulnerability to erosion and flooding and for the appraisal of the resulting social risk.     

Climate change and urban land systems: bridging the gaps between urbanism and land science

ABSTRACT

Land science has generated critical knowledge about how humans modify Earth’s surface and has advanced our understanding of land as a coupled human–environment system. However, to date, most work has been in frontier environments with less attention – both conceptually and empirically – on how urban land systems affect the carbon cycle. Much of what is known about urban areas and the carbon cycle is limited to aggregate levels of activities within urban areas, usually by sector, with little focus on how the spatial configuration of urban land systems affects carbon-emitting activities. Given that urban areas produce about 70% of global energy-related CO₂ emissions, it is crucial to understand the relationship between urban environments, the activities they influence, and the resulting carbon emissions. This paper summarizes the current state of knowledge of how urban land systems affect carbon emissions and vulnerability, and identifies research gaps and opportunities for urban land science to contribute to climate change science, particularly through land architecture. We argue that more attention to urban land science conceptualization, measurement, and analysis would contribute to both fundamental knowledge about urban systems, as well as help identify policies and strategies for mitigation and adaptation to climate change at the urban scale.     

Exploring co-investments in sustainable land management in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, not only farmers but also the public and private sector partners are still hesitant to invest in sustainable land management (SLM). This study focuses on the Central Rift Valley and explores the potential for co-investments in SLM, where public and private sector partners support farmers with material, capital, knowledge, etc. A survey revealed current bottlenecks for co-investments and requirements needed to collaboratively invest in SLM. It covered 165 public sector partners (micro-, meso- and macro-level institutions) and 42 private sector partners (banks, exporters and local traders). Results for the public sector show a gap between macro- and micro-/meso-level actors concerning co-investments in SLM. Macro-level institutions do not acknowledge the bottlenecks identified by micro- and meso-level institutions (e.g. lack of accountability, top-down approaches and lack of good leadership). Similarly, opinions on requirements for co-investments in SLM differ considerably, showing that bridging the institutional micro–macro gap is crucial to co-investments. Most factors are related to the wider governance context and to different perceptions among micro- and macro-level actors as to the critical pre-conditions to co-investment in SLM. Improving governance at all institutional levels, capacity building and enhancing a common understanding on barriers to SLM is required. Results for the private sector reveal that economic bottlenecks limit possibilities to co-invest in SLM, and that enabling policies in the public sphere are required to trigger private investments. Hence, the potential for co-investments in SLM is available in Ethiopia at micro- and meso-level and within the private sector, but profound commitment and fundamental policy changes at the macro-level are required to exploit this potential.     

Optimization of fermentation process for saccharide-based fuel ethanol production by Saccharomyces cerevisiae北大核心CSCD

低成本、高产量的发酵工艺是实现工业燃料乙醇经济和环境可持续性发展的关键,而不需要重大基础设施改变或投资.为获得酿酒酵母(Saccharomyces cerevisiae)利用甘蔗汁生产燃料乙醇的最优发酵工艺,首先对发酵体系的氮源条件进行优化;其次,在单因素试验基础上,以乙醇发酵效率为响应值,通过响应面法优化了燃料乙醇生产的发酵工艺,并通过补料分批发酵技术在5 L发酵罐中进一步扩大发酵.结果表明,以1.0 g/L (NH)SO和1.0 g/L酵母提取物作为发酵氮源,乙醇发酵效率和得率比对照可分别提高4.80%、9.52%.响应面设计获得的最优发酵工艺条件为在总糖浓度150.0 g/L、酵母提取物浓度2.0 g/L、发酵时间24.5 h、pH5.0、外加(NH)SO浓度1.0 g/L时,最高乙醇发酵效率可达到91.10%.在5 L发酵罐中采用补料分批发酵获得的最终乙醇浓度达到98.92 g/L,发酵效率维持在90%左右,乙醇生产力最高达到3.81 g Lh.本研究获得了一种高效生产糖质燃料乙醇的发酵工艺,可在较短时间内获得高浓度乙醇且消耗较少氮源,结果可为进一步利用糖质原料进行高效生物炼制及高浓度乙醇工业化生产提供参考.(图6表6参30)     

Development of socio-economic impact assessment methodology applicable to large water resource projects in India

SUMMARY

The genesis of socio-economic impact assessment (SIA) in India is pressure from funding agencies like the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and similar institutions. Of late, these institutions have stressed appraisal of environmental concerns as a pre-condition for financial support to large infra-structure projects. However, SIA studies are easier to conceptualise than to implement, because the issues involved are nebulous, complex, highly nuanced, difficult to define, and not easily amenable to quantification. These are some of the reasons for the cursory treatment of socioeconomic impact studies in India as a formality to satisfy monitoring and funding agency requirements and not as a tool for ensuring maximum social good through the developmental process. However, proper implementation of the concept of SIA in essential in attaining the goals of sustainable development. Ensuring social justice, i.e. preventing the continued impoverishment, displacement, social dislocation, and marginalisation of the weaker sections of Indian society, who always seem to bear the burden of adverse effects of such large infra-structure projects in disproportionate numbers, is also a goal of SIA. Increasing ambivalent attitudes and mounting opposition towards the implementation of large water resources projects of late in India necessitate systematic, transparent, and exhaustive consideration of all relevant socioeconomic issues before implementation of such projects. The objective of this study was to develop a comprehensive methodology for SIA for large water resource projects in India. The methodology was based on the review of the literature and other means and implicitly addresses the major goals of SIA — sustainable development and the achievement of social justice related to development.     

Regionalisation of flora elements in field boundaries sensitive to hybridisation with genetically modified oilseed rape

Background, aim, and scope Gene flow via pollen dispersal to neighbouring non-genetically modified (GM) and organic fields or to biotopes containing the same crop species and/or their wild relatives are among the most debated potential environmental risks of GM crops. These crosses permit ingression of GM traits and may produce viable progeny. Current GM crop monitoring plans and concepts have not considered this a critical issue. In the present study, we develop a methodology for the regionalisation of the hybridisation risk of GM oilseed rape (OSR) (Brassica napus L.) with respect to related hybridisation partners (both OSR and related species) as well as neighbouring arable fields and biotopes. This methodology should constitute an important component of future spatial GM crop monitoring designs. Materials and methods A vegetation database containing occurrence frequencies of OSR crossing partners in Brandenburg state was analysed, and literature surveys were performed on OSR outcrossing proofs with regard to different wild species, the viability of progeny and the potential establishment of crosses. We aggregated detailed biotope maps for the entire Brandenburg state in order to differentiate the nine main biotope groups relevant as habitats for OSR and hybridising Brassicaceae. We determined the types and areas of biotopes neighbouring all arable fields with an outside buffer of 50?m, and then ascertained whether the biotope composition outside the buffers was significantly different from that of the buffers. We then overlayed our buffering results with an ecoregion map of Brandenburg to upscale our results to larger regions. Results Brassica rapa presented the highest potential for hybridisation, reproduction and persistence in this environment, but Raphanus raphanistrum, Brassica oleracea, Hirschfeldia incana, Sinapis arvensis and Diplotaxis muralis are also significant potential crossing partners for OSR. The highest average frequency of species occurring in biotopes applies to arable lands, settlements and industrial areas, disturbed areas, road verges and gardens, which together cover 84.2?% of the total area and 74.6?% of the neighbouring biotopes. Related species occurring most often in Brandenburg are Descurainia sophia, feral OSR, Sinapis arvensis, Diplotaxis tenuifolia and Diplotaxis muralis. All biotopes relevant to OSR-related species are present in all Brandenburg ecoregions, but there are differences in the proportion of each biotope, especially hedgerows, arable land, gardens and road verges. The Uckermark and Oder valley can be considered slightly more critical. Discussion Hybridisation and persistence of GM OSR depends on (a) the related species’ potential to hybridise and produce viable progeny, (b) the frequency of hybridisation partners at different biotope types, and (c) the frequency of directly neighbouring arable fields with sensitive biotopes. Integration of these factors gives the following rank order of hybridisation risks for different biotopes in the agro-environment: disturbed areas > arable land > road verges > settlements and industrial areas > gardens. Extrapolation of local relevée and biotope results to larger areas such as the Brandenburg state was shown to be feasible, and may also be done nationwide and EU-wide with suitable biotope datasets. Conclusions Cultivation of GM OSR in Brandenburg carries a considerable potential of hybridisation with related species and feral OSR in biotopes neighbouring arable fields. The methodology presented here is suitable to link spatially limited but highly detailed datasets on the occurrence of potential hybridisation partners for GM OSR with regional datasets and to extrapolate hybridisation risks, and therefore could serve as a monitoring instrument. Recommendations and perspectives We suggest that populations of related species and the potential spread of GM traits should be monitored using a targeted approach. While further standardisation will be required, this methodology should be included as a regular component of GM crop monitoring.     

Multinational corporations and the EU Emissions Trading System: The specter of asset erosion and creeping deindustrialization

This study seeks to investigate the causal effect of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on firms' holdings of fixed assets as an early indicator of industrial relocation, exploiting installation level inclusion criteria of the regulation. To single out companies with particularly low relocation costs, global multinational enterprises (MNEs), we identify ownership structures for the full sample of EU ETS-firms. Matched Difference-in-Differences estimates provide robust evidence that contradicts the specter of an erosion of European asset bases. Baseline results for the manufacturing sector indicate that the EU ETS led to an on average increase of treated firms' asset bases of 12,1%. However, for a particular subgroup of MNEs, this increase is a mere 2.1%. For these companies, the EU ETS may have induced a shift in investment priorities.     

Effects of threat management interactions on conservation priorities

Decisions need to be made about which biodiversity management actions are undertaken to mitigate threats and about where these actions are implemented. However, management actions can interact; that is, the cost, benefit, and feasibility of one action can change when another action is undertaken. There is little guidance on how to explicitly and efficiently prioritize management for multiple threats, including deciding where to act. Integrated management could focus on one management action to abate a dominant threat or on a strategy comprising multiple actions to abate multiple threats. Furthermore management could be undertaken at sites that are in close proximity to reduce costs. We used cost‐effectiveness analysis to prioritize investments in fire management, controlling invasive predators, and reducing grazing pressure in a bio‐diverse region of southeastern Queensland, Australia. We compared outcomes of 5 management approaches based on different assumptions about interactions and quantified how investment needed, benefits expected, and the locations prioritized for implementation differed when interactions were taken into account. Managing for interactions altered decisions about where to invest and in which actions to invest and had the potential to deliver increased investment efficiency. Differences in high priority locations and actions were greatest between the approaches when we made different assumptions about how management actions deliver benefits through threat abatement: either all threats must be managed to conserve species or only one management action may be required. Threatened species management that does not consider interactions between actions may result in misplaced investments or misguided expectations of the effort required to mitigate threats to species.     

基于生态保护的道路规划策略

分析了路段与景观两个尺度上的道路生态环境影响,结合当今景观生态学、道路生态学的研究成果,系统论述了与道路交通规划建设相关的生态策略：（1）在区域尺度上,依据生态敏感度规划路网密度、保持大型自然空间的生态完整性、提倡非生态敏感地段的交通集中、增加路网的区域水平渗透性;（2）在路段规模上,自然空间的生境避让、保持重要地段的自然连续性、打破交通生态瓶颈、减少道路交通的环境影响、补偿道路建设的生态影响等。这些策略旨在为可持续道路交通提供基于生态合理性的规划原则与方法。     

Impacts of flight distance on sex ratio and resource allocation to offspring in the leafcutter bee, Megachile rotundata

Fisher's theoretical prediction of equal investment in each sex for a panmictic population (The genetical theory of natural selection. Clarendon, Oxford, 1930) can be altered by a number of factors. For example, the sex ratio theory predicts variation in equal investment in each sex when the maternal fitness gains from increased investment differ between sexes. Changing sex allocation because of changing payoffs may result from different ecological situations, such as foraging conditions. We investigated the impact of foraging travel cost on relative investment in sons vs daughters. Field studies were carried out with the central-place-foraging leafcutter bee Megachile rotundata (Fabricius), which has smaller males than females. Therefore, less investment is required to produce a viable son compared with a daughter. We found that with increased flight distance to resources, females produced a greater proportion of sons. Females also invested fewer resources in individual sons and daughters and produced fewer offspring with increased flight distance.     

The importance of agricultural yield elasticity for indirect land use change: a Bayesian network analysis for robust uncertainty quantification

ABSTRACT

A major barrier to realising biofuels’ climate change mitigation potential is uncertainty concerning carbon emissions from indirect land use change (ILUC). Central to this uncertainty is the extent to which yields can respond dynamically to increased demand for agricultural commodities. This study examines the elasticity of soybean and corn yields in the USA for 1990–2017 using Bayesian network models to robustly quantify uncertainty. The central finding is that a single parameter value for yield elasticity does not adequately represent the effects of technology, policy and price pressures through time. The models demonstrate the limiting role of technological progress as well as farmers’ capital investment in response to system shocks. Results suggest evaluation of parameter uncertainty alone is unlikely to capture a full range of future ILUC scenarios and reiterate the need for ILUC studies to use probabilistic approaches as standard to robustly inform climate change mitigation policies.     

An assessment of the causes and consequences of agricultural land abandonment in Europe

ABSTRACT

The agriculture sector is the principal source of income for around 20% of the EU-26 population, which live in predominantly rural regions that would be devastated without its contribution. Moreover, the combined agricultural and food sector forms an important part of the EU economy, accounting for 15 million jobs (8.3% of total employment) and 4.4% of GDP. The 12 million active farmers across Europe today, have an average farm size of about 15 ha, and are expected to meet the needs of 500 million Europeans. In addition, they are also expected to promote a sustainable and balanced development of their land, also in areas where production conditions are difficult. Yet, despite the relevance of the sector, the use of land for agriculture purposes is not very sustainable. Among other issues, there is a serious problem in respect of the abandonment of agricultural land. Based on the perceived need for research on this topic, the aim of this paper is to examine the causes and consequences of agricultural land abandonment, outlining its social, economic and environmental impacts, as well as the implications for territorial integration.