发达国家2020年前减排承诺进展评估及相关建议

2021年是《巴黎协定》全面实施的第一年,全球气候治理进程聚焦务实行动。在应对气候变化问题上,发达国家有率先减排和为发展中国家提供气候资金支持的义务。2010年,发达国家在“坎昆协议”下作出相应的2020年减排承诺。根据发达国家2019年温室气体清单数据,发达国家履行减排承诺整体乏力,部分国家减排进展缓慢,还有国家温室气体排放不降反升。发达国家2020年前减排承诺兑现不力,将严重削弱2020年后落实《巴黎协定》的行动基础,也不利于巩固多边进程和各方互信。建议我国强化对发达国家履约进展的研究分析,在国际气候谈判中加强宣介“以实则治”的理念,进一步敦促发达国家弥补兑现2020年承诺的缺口并提高减排力度。     

美国政府温室气体政策变化分析及启示

能源安全问题和本国经济利益始终是美国政府高度关注的战略问题。通过温室气体减排行动积极谋求“经济利益最大化”、确保国家能源安全是美国一贯坚持的准则。这一基本思想不仅直接影响美国在国际气候变化谈判的基本立场、对策,而且也直接影响着美国国内政策的制定。     

哥本哈根会议后中国应对气候变化的策略

发达国家采取双重标准,忽视自己的历史责任,过分维护自己的利益,导致哥本哈根气候峰会以失败告终。对此中国应有清醒的认识。在国内道路的选择方面,中国要继续走节能减排和“调结构”之路。在国内法律的制定方面,宜把气候变化的应对作为发展中的问题来对待,宜把主要的温室气体作为环境影响物质而非污染物质对待,并侧重于用经济手段予以对待。在国际谈判方法的采取方面,宜从人均、地均、本底责任三个方面维护自己的碳排放总量权益。     

生态环境部环境与经济政策研究中心学科研究简介——能源环境气候研究

<正>能源环境气候研究是政研中心在传统的气候变化学科基础上发展衍生形成的新兴学科之一,主要针对能源发展与环境保护、应对气候变化、国际气候治理、大气环境质量改善与碳排放强度协同控制等领域开展研究,长期开展多种污染物与温室气体协同控制评价模型开发研究,参与气候谈判和履约研究。2018年,开展了"应对气候变化政策研究与能力建设""我国城市常规大气污染物与温室气体协同控制决     

美国气候变化相关立法进展及其对中国的启示

2007年是个"气候变化年",特别是随着联合国气候变化政府间专门委员会(IPCC)第四次评估报告的推出,全球应对气候变化的国际形势日益发展,有关气候变化以及后京都谈判的讨论和磋商逐步加快.与此同时,在整个气候变化全球进程中具有决定性但同时又最不确定的美国的态度也正逐渐朝着积极应对的方向发展.美国地方的一些州和市越来越多地顺应历史潮流,成为领导美国应对气候变化的先驱.地方政府机构、工商企业以及非政府组织通过颁布具体的法案、政策和行动措施,自下而上地制定温室气体的减排方案.     

国际海运温室气体排放的量化分析及中国对策研究

海洋船舶的温室气体排放正越来越引起国际社会的关注。以中国为首的发展中国家要求在国际海洋船舶温室气体减排谈判中遵守"共同但有区别责任原则",而发达国家则要求按照国际海事组织的"相同待遇原则",各国采取统一步骤进行减排。本文以运输从中国到美国出口贸易的集装箱船为例,分析了两种不同原则的经济学含义,相对于"共同但有区别责任原则",如果所有船舶都必须减排CO2,仅仅对于涉及对美国贸易的集装箱船只,中国籍船舶和中国出口商必须多支付1.8亿美元到1.9亿美元。这将加大我国出口产业的负担。本文随后提出了我国在国际船舶温室气体减排谈判中所应注意的问题及策略。     

低碳经济引领世界经济发展方向

2007年气候变化问题明显升温.各行各业的人们都对气候变化问题给予了极大关注.政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的科学证据表明,全球应对气候变化挑战的行动已刻不容缓.作为发展中的温室气体排放大国,中国在国际气候制度构建过程中面临着巨大的幽际城市力.     

中国温室气体排放途径及应对技术策略分析

在国际社会的合作下,全球温室气体排放已出现下降的"拐点",应对气候变化的行动也将推动人类社会理念及技术的"跃迁".在温室气体减排的国际行动中,世界各国对待气候变化问题与温室气体减排国际义务的理念和对策,反映出了处在不同发展阶段的认识水平和经济技术实力差异,不同国家应对气候变化的路线也因此各不相同. 发达国家将应对全球气候变化的路径表述为"低碳经济"、"低碳社会"、"低碳路径"等概念,并试图推广给他国,然而这类路径的主要特点是通过发展低碳的生产技术和末端处理技术等手段,实现经济发展结构的内源性改善.发展中国家若一味遵循此种模式,追随发达国家技术发展的脚步,将使自己始终期待甚至依赖发达国家的低碳技术,抑制本国技术的发展,其后果只是进一步扩大了"南北"差距.     

加强温室气体管理制度建设积极应对气候变化

近年来,包括中国在内的发展中国家国内适当减缓行动的可测量、可报告和可核查已成为气候变化国际谈判的焦点问题之一.特别是2009年底通过的<哥本哈根协议>明确指出,发展中国家的自主减缓行动不仅要在国内进行测量、报告和核查,并且要通过国家信息通报提供有关行动执行情况的信息,以便接受"国际磋商与分析".纵观国际社会,碳排放市场业已成为主要发达国家本土应对气候变化的关键政策工具,而温室气体测量、报告与核查制度则是建立排放交易体系的重要技术支撑.     

废弃物协同减排能否“西策东渐”

我国废弃物领域是否具备学习借鉴国际经验的时机和土壤,国际经验在我国是否可行,需要进一步讨论。任何事都有代价,温室气体减排的背后,巨大的利益得失不能不予考虑。寻找一种最适合我国国情的减排模式,已成为当前应对气候变化工作的重点。国际上,众多国家八仙过海,减排方略各有千秋。对一些经济体减排政策和效果的分析表明,为了实现对温室减排的承诺,避重就轻是许多国家和地区的主要策略,而作为该策略的关键环节,废弃物协同减排方面的经验尤其值得中国学习和借鉴。     

Climate change mitigation policy paradigms—national objectives and alignments

The aim of this paper is to assess how policy goals in relation to the promotion of green growth, energy security, pollution control and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions have been aligned in policies that have been implemented in selected countries during the last decades as a basis for discussing how a multi objective policy paradigm can contribute to future climate change mitigation. The paper includes country case studies from Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, South Korea and the United States covering renewable energy options, industry, transportation, the residential sector and cross-sectoral policies. These countries and regions together contribute more than two thirds of global GHG emissions. The paper finds that policies that are nationally driven and that have multiple objectives, including climate-change mitigation, have been widely applied for decades in both developing countries and industrialised countries. Many of these policies have a long history, and adjustments have taken place based on experience and cost effectiveness concerns. Various energy and climate-change policy goals have worked together in these countries, and in practice a mix of policies reflecting specific priorities and contexts have been pursued. In this way, climate-change mitigation has been aligned with other policy objectives and integrated into broader policy packages, though in many cases specific attention has not been given to the achievement of large GHG emission reductions. Based on these experiences with policy implementation, the paper highlights a number of key coordination and design issues that are pertinent to the successful joint implementation of several energy and climate-change policy goals.     

Implication of the cluster analysis using greenhouse gas emissions of Asian countries to climate change mitigation

Climate change caused by excessive emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere has gained serious attention from the global community for a long time. More and more countries have decided to propose their goals such as Paris agreements, to reduce emitting these heat trapping compounds for sustainability. The Asian region houses dramatic changes with diverse religions and cultures, large populations as well as a rapidly changing socio-economic situations all of which are contributing to generating a mammoth amount of GHGs; hence, they require calls for related studies on climate change strategies. After pre-filtering of GHG emission information, 24 Asian countries have been selected as primary target countries. Hierarchical cluster analysis method using complete linkage technique was successfully applied for appropriate grouping. Six groups were categorized through GHG emission properties with major and minor emission sectors based on the GHG inventory covering energy, industrial processes, agriculture, waste, land use change, and forestry and bunker fuels. Assigning six groups using cluster analysis finally implied that the approach to establish GHG emission boundaries was meaningful to develop further mitigation strategies. Following the outcome of this study, calculating amount of reduction potential in suitable sectors as well as determining best practice, technology, and regulatory framework can be improved by policy makers, environmental scientists, and planners at the different levels. Therefore, this work on reviewing a wide range of GHG emission history and establishing boundaries of emission characteristics would provide further direction of effective climate change mitigation for sustainability and resilience in Asia.     

The value of indigenous knowledge in climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in the African Sahel

Past global efforts at dealing with the problem of global warming concentrated on mitigation, with the aim of reducing and possibly stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere. With the slow progress in achieving this, adaptation was viewed as a viable option to reduce the vulnerability to the anticipated negative impacts of global warming. It is increasingly realized that mitigation and adaptation should not be pursued independent of each other but as complements. This has resulted in the recent calls for the integration of adaptation into mitigation strategies. However, integrating mitigation and adaptation into climate change concerns is not a completely new idea in the African Sahel. The region is characterized by severe and frequent droughts with records dating back into centuries. The local populations in this region, through their indigenous knowledge systems, have developed and implemented extensive mitigation and adaptation strategies that have enabled them reduce their vulnerability to past climate variability and change, which exceed those predicted by models of future climate change. However, this knowledge is rarely taken into consideration in the design and implementation of modern mitigation and adaptation strategies. This paper highlights some indigenous mitigation and adaptation strategies that have been practiced in the Sahel, and the benefits of integrating indigenous knowledge into formal climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Incorporating indigenous knowledge can add value to the development of sustainable climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies that are rich in local content, and planned in conjunction with local people.     

Energy efficiency to mitigate carbon emissions: strategies of China and the USA

In November 2014, the United States of America (USA) and the People’s Republic of China (China) governments announced their carbon emission reduction targets by 2030. The objective of this paper is to quantitatively project the two countries’ carbon emission reductions that will likely contribute to or facilitate the global climate change mitigation commitment and strategies in Paris in 2015. A top-down approach is used to analyze the relationship between China economic development and energy demand and to identify potentials of energy savings and carbon emission reduction in China. A simple time series approach is used to project carbon emission reduction in the USA. The predictions drawn from the analysis of this paper indicate that both China and the USA should use energy efficiency as first tool to achieve their carbon emission reduction goals.     

Multiple-pollutant cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation measures in the UK agriculture

This paper develops multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve analysis to identify an optimal set of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures considering the trade-offs and synergies with other environmental pollutants. The analysis is applied to UK agriculture, a sector expected to make a contribution to the national GHG mitigation effort. Previous analyses using marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) have determined the sector's GHG abatement potential based on the cost-effectiveness of a variety of technically feasible mitigation measures. Most of these measures have external effects on other pollution loads arising from agricultural activities. Here the monetary values of four of the most important impacts to water and air (specifically ammonia, nitrate, phosphorous and sediment) are included in the cost-effectiveness analysis. The resulting multiple-pollutant marginal abatement cost curve (MP MACC) informs the design of sustainable climate change policies by showing how the MP MACC for the UK agriculture can differ from the GHG MACC. The analysis also highlights research gaps, and suggests a need to understand the wider environmental effects of GHG mitigation options and to reduce the uncertainty in pollutant damage cost estimates.     

Major challenges of integrating agriculture into climate change mitigation policy frameworks

Taking the European Union (EU) as a case study, we simulate the application of non-uniform national mitigation targets to achieve a sectoral reduction in agricultural non-carbon dioxide (CO₂) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Scenario results show substantial impacts on EU agricultural production, in particular, the livestock sector. Significant increases in imports and decreases in exports result in rather moderate domestic consumption impacts but induce production increases in non-EU countries that are associated with considerable emission leakage effects. The results underline four major challenges for the general integration of agriculture into national and global climate change mitigation policy frameworks and strategies, as they strengthen requests for (1) a targeted but flexible implementation of mitigation obligations at national and global level and (2) the need for a wider consideration of technological mitigation options. The results also indicate that a globally effective reduction in agricultural emissions requires (3) multilateral commitments for agriculture to limit emission leakage and may have to (4) consider options that tackle the reduction in GHG emissions from the consumption side.     

Policy and technological constraints to implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation options in agriculture

A recent assessment of agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has demonstrated significant potential for mitigation, but suggests that the full mitigation will not be realized due to significant barriers to implementation. In this paper, we explore the constraints and barriers to implementation important for GHG mitigation in agriculture. We also examine how climate and non-climate policy in different regions of the world has affected agricultural GHG emissions in the recent past, and how it may affect emissions and mitigation implementation in the future. We examine the links between mitigation and adaptation and drives for sustainable development and the potential for agricultural GHG mitigation in the future.We describe how some countries have initiated climate and non-climate policies believed to have direct effects or synergistic effects on mitigating GHG emissions from agriculture. Global sharing of innovative technologies for efficient use of land resources and agricultural chemicals, to eliminate poverty and malnutrition, will significantly mitigate GHG emissions from agriculture.Previous studies have shown that as less than 30% of the total biophysical potential for agricultural GHG mitigation might be achieved by 2030, due to price- and non-price-related barriers to implementation. The challenge for successful agricultural GHG mitigation will be to remove these barriers by implementing creative policies. Identifying policies that provide benefits for climate, as well as for aspects of economic, social and environmental sustainability, will be critical for ensuring that effective GHG mitigation options are widely implemented in the future.     

Emissions mitigation opportunities and practice in Northeastern United States

Climate change is creating substantial and growing impacts on the Northeastern United States. As the world’s seventh largest contributor of heat trapping carbon dioxide, the region will play a critical role in moving towards stabilizing global concentrations at a level that avoids serious adverse consequences. The Northeast region is well positioned to be a leader in technology and policy innovation for reducing emissions, and can drive national and international programs that are essential to providing a safer future climate. This paper summarizes technological mitigation options and measures as well as opportunities for public and private actions to reduce emissions. The authors propose a ‘3% solution’ of annual emission reductions to put the Northeastern United States on an emissions reductions path that is consistent with the level of reductions necessary to avoid dangerous climate change. The 3% solution requires a combination of policies that will reduce the energy imbedded in the region’s infrastructure and technologies, and individual action to choose the lowest emitting of available technologies and practices.     

湖北省畜禽粪便温室气体减排潜力分析

畜禽粪便是农业温室气体的重要排放源.合理的粪便管理方式可有效降低温室气体排放,同时减少环境污染.为明确不同养殖模式下适宜的粪便管理方式对温室气体减排的有效性,以湖北省为案例地,针对不同畜禽的粪便特征、区域自然条件和畜禽养殖模式等,筛选适宜的粪便管理方式;运用政府间气候变化专门委员会提出的畜禽粪便温室气体排放因子测算模型,在优化管理方式的基础上进行排放因子预测,估算由粪便管理方式改进所带来的减排潜力.结果表明,粪便管理经优化后畜禽粪便温室气体排放减少1.98~357.82 kg·头-1·a-1(以CO2当量计).根据养殖规模发展趋势预测,至2020年全省畜禽粪便优化管理所带来的减排潜力可达322.78万t(以CO2当量计).不同地区间减排效果则与当地养殖规模、养殖结构、养殖模式及适宜的畜禽粪便管理方式密切相关;畜禽种类间粪便特性的不同是其CH4和N2O减排效率迥异的主要原因;规模化养殖粪便管理方式优化是实现区域温室气体减排的重点.结合区域自然条件和畜禽养殖特征等,筛选适宜的粪便管理方式是实现区域温室气体减排的有效措施.     

Equal Opportunity for Biomass in Greenhouse Gas Accounting of CO2 Capture and Storage: A Step Towards More Cost-Effective Climate Change Mitigation Regimes

Carbon dioxide capture and permanent storage (CCS) is one of the most frequently discussed technologies with the potential to mitigate climate change. The natural target for CCS has been the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil energy sources. However, CCS has also been suggested in combination with biomass during recent years. Given that the impact on the earth's radiative balance is the same whether CO₂ emissions of a fossil or a biomass origin are captured and stored away from the atmosphere, we argue that an equal reward should be given for the CCS, independent of the origin of the CO₂. The guidelines that provide assistance for the national greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting under the Kyoto Protocol have not considered CCS from biomass (biotic CCS) and it appears that it is not possible to receive emission credits for biotic CCS under the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, i.e., 2008–2012. We argue that it would be unwise to exclude this GHG mitigation alternative from the competition with other GHG mitigation options. We also propose a feasible approach as to how emission credits for biotic CCS could be included within a future accounting framework.