Setting the most robust effluent level under severe uncertainty: Application of information-gap decision theory to chemical management

Decisions in ecological risk management for chemical substances must be made based on incomplete information due to uncertainties. To protect the ecosystems from the adverse effect of chemicals, a precautionary approach is often taken. The precautionary approach, which is based on conservative assumptions about the risks of chemical substances, can be applied selecting management models and data. This approach can lead to an adequate margin of safety for ecosystems by reducing exposure to harmful substances, either by reducing the use of target chemicals or putting in place strict water quality criteria. However, the reduction of chemical use or effluent concentrations typically entails a financial burden. The cost effectiveness of the precautionary approach may be small. Hence, we need to develop a formulaic methodology in chemical risk management that can sufficiently protect ecosystems in a cost-effective way, even when we do not have sufficient information for chemical management. Information-gap decision theory can provide the formulaic methodology. Information-gap decision theory determines which action is the most robust to uncertainty by guaranteeing an acceptable outcome under the largest degree of uncertainty without requiring information about the extent of parameter uncertainty at the outset. In this paper, we illustrate the application of information-gap decision theory to derive a framework for setting effluent limits of pollutants for point sources under uncertainty. Our application incorporates a cost for reduction in pollutant emission and a cost to wildlife species affected by the pollutant. Our framework enables us to settle upon actions to deal with severe uncertainty in ecological risk management of chemicals.     

The precautionary principle and ecological hazards of genetically modified organisms

This paper makes three points relevant to the application of the precautionary principle to the regulation of GMOs. i) The unavoidable arbitrariness in the application of the precautionary principle reflects a deeper epistemological problem affecting scientific analyses of sustainability. This requires understanding the difference between the concepts of "risk", "uncertainty" and "ignorance". ii) When dealing with evolutionary processes it is impossible to ban uncertainty and ignorance from scientific models. Hence, traditional risk analysis (probability distributions and exact numerical models) becomes powerless. Other forms of scientific knowledge (general principles or metaphors) may be useful alternatives. iii) The existence of ecological hazards per se should not be used as a reason to stop innovations altogether. However, the precautionary principle entails that scientists move away from the concept of "substantive rationality" (trying to indicate to society optimal solutions) to that of "procedural rationality" (trying to help society to find "satisficing" solutions).     

Environmental risks of chemicals and genetically modified organisms: a comparison. Part II: Sustainability and precaution in risk assessment and risk management

The principles of precaution and sustainability require more consideration in the assessment of environmental risks posed by chemicals and genetically modified organisms. Instead of applying risk reduction measures when there are serious indications for damage, full scientific certainty is often waited for before taking action. The precautionary principle particularly should be applied in those cases in which the extent and probability of damage are uncertain, e.g. in the case of persistent chemicals which are additionally bioaccumulative or highly mobile. Based on these principles, environmental action targets for risks associated with GMOs and chemicals can be developed. Risk management not only includes statutory measures but also instruments designed to influence behaviour indirectly are important to achieve the goals. Particularly for risks of GMOs which provoke fear, risk communication is important. Some rules to which attention should be paid in communication with the public are presented.     

The Precautionary Principle and Chemicals Regulation: Past Achievements and Future Possibilities (8 pages)

Background, Aim and Scope

The paper investigates the development of the institutional basis of the present modes of chemicals regulation and management, with special attention to interrelations with the precautionary principle. Main Features: The paper elucidates on how the precautionary principle has been shaped in relation to chemicals regulation and management since Carson's Silent Spring (years before the principle was confirmed as a policy-principle in German and European legislation. Furthermore, it is examined how the precautionary principle interacted with the development of the present chemicals regulatory regime, in a complex interplay within the OECD and Member Countries. The present modes of precaution in the new EU chemical legislation – REACH – are investigated with respect to the precautionary principle, and tested against two contemporary problems; brominated flame retardants and endocrine disrupting substances. Results: The analysis demonstrates the changing character of the integration of the precautionary principle. The main tendencies are from implicit to more explicit precaution and from a closed expert-orientation towards a more deliberative approach to scientific knowledge and uncertainty. The results demonstrate that the precautionary principle is manifest in both the design of the testing strategy and in policy provisions. In particular, the substitution of hazardous substances with less hazardous is important. Discussion: Despite explicit attention to the precautionary principle, is the present reformulation of the European Chemicals policy in danger of falling into loop-holes that equal problems related to the present regulation of existing chemicals? 'Precaution' has been reduced virtually to an abstract concept that is more or less devoid of practical meaning in the regulatory process. Conclusions: It is concluded that the role of the precautionary principle in chemicals regulation will require continued scrutiny in the future shaping of the REACH strategy. Perspectives: Continued development of robust and precaution-based chemicals regulation will have to involve both new data-generation strategies and new forms of political decision-making, with special attention given to transparency and deliberative policymaking.     

Possibility to implement invasive species control in Swedish forests

Invasive alien species constitute an increasing risk to forestry, as indeed to natural systems in general. This study reviews the legislative framework governing invasive species in the EU and Sweden, drawing upon both a legal analysis and interviews with main national level agencies responsible for implementing this framework. The study concludes that EU and Sweden are limited in how well they can act on invasive species, in particular because of the weak interpretation of the precautionary principle in the World Trade Organisation and Sanitary and Phytosanitary agreements. In the Swedish case, this interpretation also conflicts with the stronger interpretation of the precautionary principle under the Swedish Environmental Code, which could in itself provide for stronger possibilities to act on invasive species.     

A regulatory view on science and predictive models

A lot of scientific knowledge is required to carry out and enforce environmental regulations. The paper deals with the relationship between law and science from a legal perspective. First, some difficulties in using science to carry out environmental regulations are outlined. After this, some legal concepts which try to cope with the problems are presented. Aspects discussed are the precautionary principle, the legal concept of 'state of the art', general standard setting, the flexibility of the regulations, and procedural regulations for the standard-setting process. Finally, the new challenge for science that derives from the legal demand of an integrated approach to environmental protection is addressed.     

Hybrid regimes of knowledge? Challenges for constructing scientific evidence in the context of the GMO-debate

Background, aim, and scope

Over the last two decades, there has been a remarkable shift of attention to the scientific and political fundamentals of the precautionary principle. The application of this principle has become a main strategy of coping with the different forms and problems related to non-knowledge. Thus, societies are increasingly confronted with the challenging and hitherto unresolved problem of political and technological decision-making under conditions of diverging framings of non-knowledge. At present, there seems to be no generally accepted scientific or institutional approach. This is why the fundamental question of how different scientific actors define and construct evidence is not answered yet. Hence, this paper is based on the consideration that the conflicts in risk policy concerning genetically modified organisms (GMO) depend on the unresolved conflicts about the diverging scientific strategies and structures of evidence-making between the epistemic cultures involved. Thus, this study investigates two questions: (1) do the epistemic strategies of evidence-making differ systematically with the scientific actors involved in the GMO-debate? (2) What consequences emerge considering institutionalized procedures of decision-making?

Main features

This article is based on a secondary analysis of findings and perspectives reported in the literature and on the methods of qualitative social empirical research, i.e., interviews with experts. A total number of 34 interviews were conducted to explore the different strategies of handling non-knowledge and constructing evidence. Actors from science, administration, business and NGOs were interviewed. In this way, typical epistemic cultures can be described. An epistemic culture is the constellation of methodological strategies, theoretical assumptions and practical-experimental settings which define in every speciality the ways how we know what we know.

Results

There are two main results. Firstly, it was worked out that the epistemic cultures involved in the GMO-debate use rather distinct strategies to define non-knowledge and to classify evidence. There are three types of constructing evidence, which correspond to different types of epistemic cultures. Secondly, the findings imply that the intensity of the conflicts in risk policy fields like the GMO-debate is due to a lack of knowledge politics. Usually, knowledge politics is restricted to the design of institutional procedures to compile knowledge provided by experts. The institutional setting of risk analysis and risk management is based on the premise of strict separation between knowledge and power. However, inadmissible mixing-up of knowledge and power is observable.

Discussion

It seems that non-knowledge leads to an epistemic no man’s land, and, hence, hybrid regimes of knowledge emerge. These regimes are hybrid with respect to the unclear and not explicitly reflected strategies of evidence-making. By lacking of knowledge politics, this situation opens up ‘windows of opportunity’ for actors with special interests in risk policy fields like the GMO-debate. Therefore, there is a difference between the visible institutionalized structures of risk policies and the rather invisible hybrid regimes of knowledge. Structure and scope of expertise have to be reflected and new instruments of knowledge politics have to be designed.

Conclusions

Different epistemic cultures can be qualified by describing their particular strategies of evidence-making. To solve the conflicts between these strategies, a meta-expertise is needed. Besides the institutionalized settings of knowledge politics, the underlying hybrid regimes of knowledge have to be identified.

Recommendations and perspectives

The concept of epistemic cultures and their strategies of evidence-making should be investigated more explicitly with respect to other risk policy fields The analysis of hybrid regimes of knowledge should be deepened by looking at the complex interactions between institutional, discursive and practical rules affecting risk assessment.

     

Uncertainties and data needs in risk assessment of three commercial polybrominated diphenyl ethers: probabilistic exposure analysis and comparison with European Commission results

Some environmental monitoring programs have reported increasing levels of certain polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) isomers in aquatic biota and in human breast milk. The commercial PBDE products are known as penta-, octa-, and deca-brominated diphenyl ethers (PeBDE, OBDE and DBDE, respectively). Aside from the current European Commission's risk assessment initiative and efforts underway in Sweden, Canada and elsewhere to evaluate environmental levels, little is understood about sources of exposure and risks to humans. In this study, a multi-pathway human health risk assessment was performed to predict theoretical chronic daily intakes (CDIs) of PeBDE, OBDE, and DBDE by five different age groups: 0-2, 2-6, 6-12, 12-18, and 18-70 years. Sources of exposure included air, drinking water, consumption of fish, vegetables, meat and dairy products, and ingestion of breast milk by infants. In addition to a deterministic analysis, the risk assessment included a probabilistic analysis to derive the probability density functions describing the range of plausible exposures associated with eight different pathways, as well as aggregate lifetime exposures for each age group. The results were compared to CDI point estimates calculated by the European Chemicals Bureau as part of the European Commission's Existing Substances Programme. The major sources of uncertainties are discussed, including environmental sources, levels in different environmental compartments, toxicity, and human exposure. This paper also discusses the limitations in the current state-of-the-science and provides recommendations for improving the scientific relevance and accuracy of future environmental risk assessments of PBDEs.     

Evaluation of FOCUS surface water pesticide concentration predictions and risk assessment of field-measured pesticide mixtures—a crop-based approach under Mediterranean conditions

FOCUS models are used in the European regulatory risk assessment (RA) to predict individual pesticide concentrations in edge-of-field surface waters. The scenarios used in higher tier FOCUS simulations were mainly based on Central/North European, and work is needed to underpin the validity of simulated exposure profiles for Mediterranean agroecosystems. In addition, the RA of chemicals are traditionally evaluated on the basis of single substances although freshwater life is generally exposed to a multitude of pesticides. In the present study, we monitored 19 pesticides in surface waters of five locations in the Portuguese ‘Lezíria do Tejo’ agricultural area. FOCUS step 3 simulations were performed for the South European scenarios to estimate predicted environmental concentrations (PECs). We verified that 44% of the PECs underestimated the measured environmental concentrations (MEC) of the pesticides, showing a non-compliance with the field data. Risk was assessed by comparing the environmental quality standards (EQS) and regulatory acceptable concentrations with their respective MECs. Risk of mixtures was demonstrated in 100% of the samples with insecticides accounting for 60% of the total risk identified. The overall link between the RA and the actual situation in the field must be considerably strengthened, and field studies on pesticide exposure and effects should be carried out to assist the improvement of predictive approaches used for regulatory purposes.     

A differentiated assessment of the future of biotechnology a perspective from an eu member state

Summary  I would like to stress that the research and development interests and programs, as well as the basic economic expectations to biotechnology, seem to be quite similar for the EU and the USA. However, with a sensitive public and a smaller structured, agricultural structure, the EU approach seems to be more cautious, based on the precautionary principle which is explicitly mentioned in various EU regulations [see e.g. 11], and taking into account the level of uncertainty with GMOs. Biotechnology is more than applying GMOs in industry or agriculture, it is a huge variety of methods and techniques waiting to be assessed and implemented, provided they are safe and useful. In addition, the remaining questions concerning the risk/safety of GMO products have to be fully assessed [12-14].     

Fragrances in the Environment: Pleasant odours for nature? (9 pp)

Goal, Scope and Background Fragrance preparations or perfumes are used in an increasing variety of applications, as for example washing, cleansing, personal care products, consumer goods or in applications to modify indoor air. However, up to now, little is known to the general or scientific public about their chemical identity and the use pattern of single substances, not even for high production volume chemicals. Some toxicological data are published for a comparatively small number of substances with a focus on sensitisation and dermal effects, while other effects are neglected. Information on ecotoxicity and environmental fate are rare, especially for long-term exposure. Data for a detailed hazard and risk analysis are available in exceptional cases only. According to the current legal situation, fragrance industry is self-regulated, which means that pre-market risk evaluation is not required for most fragrances. Odour and the ability to smell play a major role for wildlife for all taxonomic groups. Reproductive and social behaviour, defence, communication and orientation depend on volatile compounds which can be identical to those used in fragrance preparations. Our interdisciplinary approach leads to the question of whether and, if so, to what extent anthropogenic fragrances may influence life and reproduction of organisms in the environment. Main Features Information from literature on use, exposure and biological effects was combined to analyse the state of knowledge. Following an overview of the amounts of fragrances used in different consumer products and their release into the environment, the roles of odours in nature are shown for a selection of compounds. Existing regulation was analysed to describe the data basis for environmental risk evaluation. Finally, recommendations for further action are derived from these findings. Results Three main results were elaborated: First, fragrance substances are continuously discharged in large amounts into the environment, especially via the waste water. Second, there are some indications of negative effects on human health or the environment, although the data basis is very thin due to the self regulation of the fragrance industry and the regulatory situation of fragrance substances. Third, many odoriferous substances used by man are identical to those which are signal substances of environmental organisms at very low concentrations, thus giving rise to specific mode of actions in the ecosystem. Recommendations For the adequate risk assessments of fragrances, test results on their unspecific as well as their specific effects as signal substances are needed. This would imply prioritisation methods and development of useful test methods for specific endpoints for appropriate risk assessments. Before a comprehensive testing and evaluation of results has been finished, a minimization of exposure should be envisaged. Eco-labelling of products containing acceptable fragrance ingredients could be a first step and provide consumers with the respective information. Transparency concerning the fragrance ingredients used and their biological potency will help to build up confidence between producers and consumers. Conclusions and Perspectives The interdisciplinary approach, bringing together chemical, biological, toxicological and ecotoxicological data with information provided by manufacturers and with legal and consumer aspects, offers new insights into the field of fragrance substances used in consumer products. The amounts and application fields of fragrance substances increases while fate and effects in the environment are hardly known. The current legal situation is not suited to elucidate the effects of fragrances on human health and the environment sufficiently, especially as it was shown that fragrances may play a considerable role in the ecosystem on the behaviour of organisms. According to the precautionary principle, the lack of knowledge should best be tackled by reducing exposure, especially for compounds such as fragrance substances where no ethical reasons object a substitution by less hazardous chemicals. ESS-Submission Editor: Dr. Thomas Knacker (th-knacker@ect.de)     

A list of fish species that are potentially exposed to pesticides in edge-of-field water bodies in the European Union—a first step towards identifying vulnerable representatives for risk assessment

Surrogate species are used in standard toxicity tests for the environmental risk assessment of chemicals. Test results are then extrapolated to the situation in the field, which is often associated with a large degree of uncertainty. Since a vulnerable species in the field is not only characterised by its intrinsic sensitivity to a stressor but also by its potential for exposure and its population resilience, the identification of focal species based on these three components of vulnerability is needed for a more ecologically relevant risk assessment. This study listed European fish species that are susceptible to pesticide exposure in the field and thus achieved the first step towards identifying focal species for the risk assessment of pesticides for fish in Europe. A step-wise filtering approach was applied to list freshwater fish species that are native to Europe and widespread in the European Union, which inhabit streams, ditches or ponds in agricultural landscapes and therefore, are at an elevated risk of being exposed to pesticides. Out of the 579 fish species occurring in European freshwater, 27 species met the filtering criteria. The resulting list was verified based on monitoring studies that were conducted in agricultural landscapes over the past 20 years. Focal fish species that can be used for a more ecologically relevant environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Europe can be identified from the produced list of species by further assessing their ecological (life history and dispersal characteristics) and intrinsic sensitivities.     

The Challenge of Bridging Science and Policy in the Baltic Sea Eutrophication Governance in Finland: The perspective of Science

This article examines the views of scientists on intricacies of scientific knowledge that affect science–policy interface in the Baltic Sea eutrophication governance in Finland. The analysis demonstrates that these intricacies can be divided into five categories: (1) uncertainty of knowledge concerning ecological processes, (2) heterogeneity of knowledge, (3) societal and political call for (certain) knowledge, (4) contingency of the knowledge that ends up taken as a baseline for decision making and further research, and (5) linkages of knowledge production, processing, and communication to particular characteristics of individual researchers and research societies. By explicating these aspects, this article illustrates the ways in which scientific knowledge concerning eutrophication is human-bound and susceptible to interpretation, thus adding on to the uncertainty of the Baltic Sea environmental governance. The aim is, then, to open up perspectives on how ambiguities related to science–policy interface could be coped with.     

The Evolution of the Environmental Quality Concept: From the US EPA Red Book to the European Water Framework Directive

- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/espr2006.01.003 Background Water Quality Criteria were firstly defined in the 1970s by the EPA in the USA and the EIFAC in Europe, recognizing the need for protecting water quality in order to allow the use of water resources by man. In the 1990s, the European Commission emphasized the importance of safeguarding structure and function of biologic communities. These approaches were chemically-based. The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) substantially changes the concept of Water Quality, by assuming that a water body needs to be protected as an environmental good and not as a resource to be exploited. In this frame, the biological-ecological quality assumes a prevailing role. Main Features The Water Quality concept introduced by the WFD is a challenge for environmental sciences. Reference conditions should be defined for different typologies of water bodies and for different European ecoregions. Suitable indicators should be developed in order to quantify ecological status and to define what a 'good' ecological status is. Procedures should be developed for correlating the deviation from a good ecological to the effects of multiple stressors on function and structure of the ecosystem. The protection of biodiversity becomes a key objective. In this frame, the traditional procedures for ecotoxicological risk assessment, mainly based on laboratory testing, should be overcome by more site-specific approaches, taking into account the characteristics and the homeostatic capabilities of natural communities. In the paper an overview of the present knowledge and of the new trends in ecotoxicology to get these objectives will be given. A procedure is suggested based on the concept of Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD). Recommendations and Perspective . The need for more site-specific and ecologically-oriented approaches in ecotoxicology is strongly recommended. The development of new tools for implementing the concept of 'Stress Ecology' has been recently proposed by van Straalen (2003). In the same time, more 'cological realism'is needed in practically applicable procedures for regulatory purposes.     

Comparative environmental assessment of biocides used in antifouling paints

In response to increasing scientific evidence on the toxicity and persistence of organotin residues from antifouling paints in the aquatic environment, the use of triorganotin antifouling products was banned on boats of less than 25 m length in many countries during 1987. Alternatives to tributyltin (TBT) paint are mainly copper based coatings containing organic booster biocides to improve the efficacy of the formulation, and have been utilised on small boats for the last 10 years. With policies encouraging a total ban on TBT, it is expected that these biocides will be used to a greater extent in the future. Limited data and information are available on the environmental occurrence, fate, toxicity, and persistence of these biocides, and thus any decisions on policies regulating antifoulants cannot be fully informed. In this study, a multicriteria comparison of alternative biocides, based on a general assessment of available information in the literature, provided support for the use of the precautionary principle with respect to policies on antifouling products. This assessment was validated by a more detailed comparison of four selected biocides and TBT. Results indicate that TCMS pyridine and TCMTB demonstrate environmental characteristics similar to TBT and thus detail risk assessments are needed before their use is permitted. The widespread use of the other biocides should be allowed only after research to fill the gaps in knowledge with respect to their toxicity and persistence in aquatic environments.     

Eco-Labelling of Shampoos,Shower Gels and Foam Baths (6 pp)

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: Environmental issues of personal care products have been met with little attention in the past. Monitoring data as well as preliminary environmental risk assessments indicate that some ingredients in personal care products might be relevant pollutants in the environment. Following the precautionary principle, eco-labelling is proposed as an effective tool for source control of one major group of personal care products, shampoos, shower gels and foam baths (SSBs). Eco-labelling is a soft, but effective market driven and product specific approach to lower discharge of environmentally detrimental substances. Products that fulfil the criteria proposed help to minimise the impact of SSBs on the environment. METHODS: Available assessment tools for dangerous substances (e.g. current legislation on environmental risk assessments and classification, and labelling, eco-labelling criteria for similar products, the calculation of the critical dilution volume) were adapted and integrated into the criteria for the eco-labelling of SSBs. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: A short outline of the eco-labelling criteria developed for SSBs is provided. The basic criteria concern the effects of the substances discharged into the waste water during and after use. Products with an eco-label award may exclusively contain substances for which basic information about their effects on the environment is available. They may not contain persistent, bioaccumulating, toxic or ecotoxicological substances. In addition, the basic criteria include requirements for the container and consumer information. CONCLUSION: The basic criteria for eco-labelling SSBs are based on the actual state of science and are at the same time as simple and transparent as possible to ensure the best applicability. SSBs that comply with the described basic criteria can contribute to a lower chemical burden of waste water treatment plants and surface water. RECOMMENDATION AND OUTLOOK: The proposal for basic criteria described should stimulate discussion on eco-labelling of SSBs. It should help to pass valid criteria supported by authorities, producers and consumer groups for a national or international eco-label, e.g. for the European Flower or the German Blue Angel. In future, the successful introduction of labelled SSBs into the market will raise the awareness of the general public about the environmental effects of personal care products and it will help to promote environmentally compatible products.     

Intertemporal social choice and climate stabilization

This paper examines the implications of alternative approaches to intertemporal social choice in a numerically calibrated model of interactions between global climate change and the world economy. Under cost-benefit analysis, relatively modest steps towards greenhouse gas emissions abatement are justified as economically efficient. Under classical utilitarianism and the precautionary principle, in contrast, aggressive steps towards climate stabilization emerge as socially optimal. The paper reviews the value judgements that support each of these normative approaches, arguing that the precautionary principle is most closely tied to the goals and objectives of the Framework Convention on Climate Change.     

Estimation of soil adsorption coefficients of organic compounds by HPLC screening using the second generation of the European reference soil set

The European reference soil set was introduced as common basis for a better comparability of soil sorption data measured within the framework of chemical testing of environmental chemicals. The success of the EUROSOILS, as the set is commonly called, convinced the European Commission's Joint Research Centre to evaluate the possibility of producing a remake of these unique and new type of reference materials maintaining the principal sorption-controlling properties of the soils. In this paper the recently proposed second generation of the EUROSOILS is used to evaluate a HPLC-screening technique for the estimation of soil adsorption coefficients of organic chemicals. It could be shown that the derived correlations between HPLC capacity factors of the test substances and the respective soil adsorption coefficients resulting from batch experiments with the second version of the EUROSOILS agreed with those derived for the first generation of reference soils at a different occasion.     

Evaluation of an approach for the characterization of reactive and available pools of 20 potentially toxic elements in soils: part II--solid-solution partition relationships and ion activity in soil solutions

To assess environmental risks related to contaminants in soil it is essential to predict the available pool of inorganic contaminants at regional scales, accounting for differences between soils from variable geologic and climatic origins. An approach composed of a well-accepted soil extraction procedure (0.01 M CaCl(2)) and empirical Freundlich-type models in combination with mechanistically based models which to date have been used only in temperate regions was applied to 136 soils from a South European area and evaluated for its possible general use in risk assessment. Empirical models based on reactive element pools and soil properties (pH, organic carbon, clay, total Al, Fe and Mn) provided good estimations of available concentrations for a broad range of contaminants including As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cu, Hg, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se and Zn (r(2): 0.46-0.89). The variation of the pools of total Al in soils expressed the sorptive capacity of aluminosilicates and Al oxides at the surfaces and edges of clay minerals better than the actual variability of clay contents. The approach has led to recommendations for further research with particular emphasis on the impact of clay on the solubility of As and Sb, on the mechanisms controlling Cr and U availability and on differences in binding properties of soil organic matter from different climatic regions. This study showed that such approach may be included with a good degree of certainty for first step risk assessment procedures to identify potential risk areas for leaching and uptake of inorganic contaminants in different environmental settings.     

Quantification of variability and uncertainty in air pollutant emission inventories: method and case study for utility NOx emissions

The quality of stationary source emission factors is typically described using data quality ratings, which provide no quantification of the precision of the emission factor for an average source, nor of the variability from one source to another within a category. Variability refers to actual differences caused by differences in feedstock composition, design, maintenance, and operation. Uncertainty refers to lack of knowledge regarding the true emissions. A general methodology for the quantification of variability and uncertainty in emission factors, activity factors, and emission inventories (EIs) is described, featuring the use of bootstrap simulation and related techniques. The methodology is demonstrated via a case study for a selected example of NOx emissions from coal-fired power plants. A prototype software tool was developed to implement the methodology. The range of interunit variability in selected activity and emission factors was shown to be as much as a factor of 4, and the range of uncertainty in mean emissions is shown to depend on the interunit variability and sample size. The uncertainty in the total inventory of -16 to +19% was attributed primarily to one technology group, suggesting priorities for collecting data and improving the inventory. The implications for decision-making are discussed.