Evaluation of a forage allocation model for Theodore Roosevelt National Park

We developed a forage allocation model using a deterministic, linear optimization module in a commercially available spreadsheet package to help resource managers in Theodore Roosevelt National Park (TRNP), North Dakota determine optimum numbers of four ungulate species, bison (Bison bison), elk (Cervus elaphus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and feral horses, in the Park. TRNP staff actively managed bison, elk, and feral horse numbers within bounds suggested by our model from 1983 to 1996. During this period, we measured vegetation at 8 grassland and 12 wooded sites at 1-3 year intervals to determine if model solutions were appropriate for maintaining stable conditions in important plant communities in the Park. The data we recorded at these sites indicated minimal change in plant communities from 1983 to 1996. Changes in most vegetation categories that we expected when animal numbers exceeded model optimums for short periods (decreases in coverage/stem numbers of palatable plant species, increases in bare ground or unpalatable plant species) did not occur consistently under high or low precipitation conditions. The lack of sensitivity of our model to decreases in overall production of palatable plant species that occurred due to drought, fire, expansion of black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colonies, and the spread of leafy spurge (Euphorbia esula) in areas of the Park where we did not have monitoring sites suggested that the model under-estimated the total number of ungulates that the Park could support. Management for population levels of ungulates defined by the model probably led to over protection of common plant communities and insufficient protection of rare plant communities. Detecting changes in rare plant communities could have been accomplished by re-designing our vegetation monitoring program, but changing emphasis to protection of rare plants would have likely promoted under use of grazing-tolerant habitat types, dissatisfaction in tourists visiting the Park to see large mammals, and large increases in cost and intrusiveness of management activities such as fencing and control of ungulate populations. The model was a flawed representation of grazing dynamics in TRNP, but we believe it succeeded in making management personnel aware of the biological constraints they face when making management decisions.     

Model-Based Assessment of Aspen Responses to Elk Herbivory in Rocky Mountain National Park,USA

In Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP), aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) has been observed to be declining on elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) winter range for many decades. To support elk management decisions, the SAVANNA ecosystem model was adapted to explore interactions between elk herbivory and aspen dynamics. The simulated probability of successful vegetative regeneration for senescent aspen stands declines sharply when elk densities reach levels of 3–5 elk/km², depending on model assumptions for the seasonal duration of elk foraging activities. For aspen stands with a substantial component of younger trees, the simulated regeneration probability declines more continuously with increasing elk density, dropping below 50% from densities at 8–14 elk/km².At the landscape scale, simulated aspen regeneration probability under a scenario of extensive seasonal use was little affected by elk population level, when this level was above 300–600 elk (25%–50% current population) over the ca. 107 km² winter range. This was because elk distribution was highly aggregated, so that a high density of elk occupied certain areas, even at low population levels overall. At approximately current elk population levels (1000–1200 elk), only 35%–45% of senescent aspen stands are simulated as having at least a 90% probability of regeneration, nearly all of them located on the periphery of the winter range. Successful management for aspen persistence on core winter range will likely require some combination of elk population reduction, management of elk distribution, and fencing to protect aspen suckers from elk browsing.     

Prescribed burning effects on summer elk forage availability in the subalpine zone, Banff National Park, Canada

The effects of prescribed burning on forage abundance and suitability for elk (Cervus elaphus) during the snow-free season was evaluated in east-central Banff National Park, Canada. Six coniferous forest and mixed shrub-herb plant communities (n=144 plots), and 5223ha of burned (n=131) vegetation <12 years old were sampled using a stratified semi-random design. Sampling units represented various combinations of vegetation, terrain conditions, and stand ages that were derived from digital biophysical data, with plant communities the basic unit of analysis. Burning coniferous forest stands reduced woody biomass, and increased herbaceous forage from 146 to 790 kg/ha. Increases commonly occurred in the percent cover of hairy wild rye (Leymus innovatus (Beal) Pigler) and fireweed (Chamerion angustifolium (L.) Holub.). The herbaceous components of mixed shrub-herb communities increased from 336-747 kg/ha to 517-1104 kg/ha in response to burning (P<0.025, Mann-Whitney U-test). Browse biomass (mostly Salix spp. and Betula nana L.) increased >or=220% (P相似文献   

Short- and Longer-Term Effects of Fire and Herbivory on Sagebrush Communities in South-Central Montana

To better understand the role of herbivory and fire as potential disturbance processes in sagebrush communities, we examined responses of a grazing ungulate, elk (Cervus elaphus), following prescribed burning of sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata ssp. vaseyana) in south-central Montana (USA.) with concurrent monitoring of changes in plant production, nutritional quality, and community diversity from 1989–1999. Burning transformed low-diversity, sagebrush-dominated communities into high-diversity, graminoid-forb communities that persisted for 10 years without significant reestablishment of sagebrush. Elk increased use of burned sites one year after burning, but elk use returned to pre-burn levels over the next two to nine years. Forage biomass and nutritional quality declined after initial increases that coincided with increased elk use. Increases in elk use appeared to be influenced by increases in combined graminoid and forb production and changes in structural vegetation characteristics that permitted greater foraging efficiency. Declines in use were associated with loss of nutritional enhancement and declines in combined graminoid and forb production. Managers may observe only short-term responses from grazing ungulates to prescribed fire in sagebrush communities, but can expect longer-term increases in plant diversity and establishment of graminoid-forb communities.     

Resource Selection by Elk in an Agro-Forested Landscape of Northwestern Nebraska

In recent years, elk have begun recolonizing areas east of the Rocky Mountains that are largely agro-forested ecosystems composed of privately owned land where management of elk is an increasing concern due to crop and forage depredation and interspecific disease transmission. We used a Geographic Information System, elk use locations (n = 5013), random locations (n = 25,065), discrete-choice models, and information-theoretic methods to test hypotheses about elk resource selection in an agro-forested landscape located in the Pine Ridge region of northwestern Nebraska, USA. Our objectives were to determine landscape characteristics selected by female elk and identify publicly owned land within the Pine Ridge for potential redistribution of elk. We found distance to edge of cover influenced selection of resources by female elk most and that in areas with light hunting pressure, such as ours, this selection was not driven by an avoidance of roads. Female elk selected resources positioned near ponderosa pine cover types during all seasons, exhibited a slight avoidance of roads during spring and fall, selected areas with increased slope during winter and spring, and selected north- and east-facing aspects over flat areas and areas with south-facing slopes during winter months. We used our models to identified a potential elk redistribution area that had a higher proportion of landcover with characteristics selected by elk in our study area than the current herd areas and more landcover that was publicly owned. With appropriate management plans, we believe elk within the Potential Elk Redistribution Area would predominantly occupy publicly owned land, which would help minimize crop and forage damage on privately owned lands.     

Simulated grazing responses on the proposed prairies National Park

The tallgrass prairie version of the ELM Grassland Model was used to evaluate the potential impact of establishing a tallgrass prairie National Park in the Flint Hills region of Kansas. This total ecosystem model simulates (a) the flow of water, heat, nitrogen, and phosphorus through the ecosystem and(b) the biomass dynamics of plants and consumers. It was specifically developed to study the effects of levels and types of herbivory, climatic variation, and fertilization upon grassland ecosystems. The model was used to simulate the impact of building up herds of bison, elk, antelope, and wolves on a tallgrass prairie. The results show that the grazing levels in the park should not be decreased below the prepark grazing levels (moderate grazing with cattle) and that the final grazing levels in the park could be maintained at a slightly higher level than the prepark grazing levels.     

Response of Elk to Habitat Modification Near Natural Gas Development

Elk (Cervus elaphus) are known to shift habitat use in response to environmental modifications, including those associated with various forms of energy development. The specific behavioral responses underlying these trends, however, have not been effectively studied. To investigate such effects, we examined elk response to habitat alteration near natural gas wells in Las Animas County, Colorado, USA in 2008–2010. We created 10 1-ha openings in forests adjacent to 10 operating natural gas wells by removing standing timber in 2008, with concomitant establishment of 10 1-ha control sites adjacent to the same wells. On each site, we estimated elk use, indexed by pellet density, before and after timber removal. Concurrently, we measured plant production and cover, nutritional quality, species composition and biomass removed by elk and other large herbivores. Species richness and diversity, graminoid and forb cover, and graminoid and forb biomass increased on cut sites following tree removal. Differences were greater in 2010 than in 2009, and elk and deer removed more plant biomass in 2010 than 2009. Elk use of cut sites was 37?% lower than control sites in 2009, but 46?% higher in 2010. The initially lower use of cut sites may be attributable to lack of winter forage on these sites caused by timber removal and associated surface modification. The increased use of cut sites in 2010 suggested that elk possessed the behavioral capacity, over time, to exploit enhanced forage resources in the proximity of habitat modifications and human activity associated with maintenance of operating natural gas wells.     

Adapting to Climate Change on Western Public Lands: Addressing the Ecological Effects of Domestic, Wild, and Feral Ungulates

Climate change affects public land ecosystems and services throughout the American West and these effects are projected to intensify. Even if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, adaptation strategies for public lands are needed to reduce anthropogenic stressors of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and to help native species and ecosystems survive in an altered environment. Historical and contemporary livestock production—the most widespread and long-running commercial use of public lands—can alter vegetation, soils, hydrology, and wildlife species composition and abundances in ways that exacerbate the effects of climate change on these resources. Excess abundance of native ungulates (e.g., deer or elk) and feral horses and burros add to these impacts. Although many of these consequences have been studied for decades, the ongoing and impending effects of ungulates in a changing climate require new management strategies for limiting their threats to the long-term supply of ecosystem services on public lands. Removing or reducing livestock across large areas of public land would alleviate a widely recognized and long-term stressor and make these lands less susceptible to the effects of climate change. Where livestock use continues, or where significant densities of wild or feral ungulates occur, management should carefully document the ecological, social, and economic consequences (both costs and benefits) to better ensure management that minimizes ungulate impacts to plant and animal communities, soils, and water resources. Reestablishing apex predators in large, contiguous areas of public land may help mitigate any adverse ecological effects of wild ungulates.     

Simulating secondary succession of elk forage values in a managed forest landscape,western Washington

Modern timber management practices often influence forage production for elk (Cervus elaphus) on broad temporal and spatial scales in forested landscapes. We incorporated site-specific information on postharvesting forest succession and forage characteristics in a simulation model to evaluate past and future influences of forest management practices on forage values for elk in a commercially managed Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii, PSME)-western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla, TSHE) forest in western Washington. We evaluated future effects of: (1) clear-cut logging 0, 20, and 40% of harvestable stands every five years; (2) thinning 20-year-old Douglas fir forests; and (3) reducing the harvesting cycle from 60 to 45 years. Reconstruction of historical patterns of vegetation succession indicated that forage values peaked in the 1960s and declined from the 1970s to the present, but recent values still were higher than may have existed in the unmanaged landscape in 1945. Increased forest harvesting rates had little short-term influence on forage trends because harvestable stands were scarce. Simulations of forest thinning also produced negligible benefits because thinning did not improve forage productivity appreciably at the stand level. Simulations of reduced harvesting cycles shortened the duration of declining forage values from approximately 30 to 15 years. We concluded that simulation models are useful tools for examining landscape responses of forage production to forest management strategies, but the options examined provided little potential for improving elk forages in the immediate future.     

Agricultural area impacts within a natural area: Cades cove,a case history

Agricultural management in Cades Cove, an historic district in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, has affected natural resources both within the district and in the adjoining natural areas. Aquatic impacts of haying and cattle grazing included increases in water temperatures, turbidity, nutrient loading, and bacterial counts and decreases in benthic macroinvertebrate density and fish biomass. Wildlife populations, including groundhogs, wild turkeys, and white-tailed deer, have increased in the open fields and around the periphery of the historic district. Intensive deer foraging has removed deciduous seedlings and saplings from woodlots, lowering species diversity and favoring coniferous reproduction. Cades Cove has limestone habitats unique in the park, and both deer browse and cattle grazing may have disturbed populations of rare plant species. Effects on water quality are detectable at a campground 15 stream km from the agricultural area, and the effects of deer foraging extend about 1 km beyond the open fields.Since historic landscape preservation is presently a goal of the park, managing for open vistas in Cades Cove will require some sort of continuing disturbance. Conversion of cattle pastures to hayfields would reduce aquatic impacts but the deer herd might increase as a result of reduced competition for forage. Retarding old field succession would increase populations of native plant species dependent on sunlight, but would require government-funded mowing. Other options are discussed. Completely eliminating the effects of the historic district on adjoining areas may be impossible, at least under present economic constraints.     

Bison and elk in the American Southwest: In search of the pristine

Ecosystem managers often use the early historic condition of the fauna in an area as the model for restoration or management. West of the Pecos River in the American Southwest, present-day abundances and distributional ranges of bison and American elk exceed those reported in early historic times. I evaluate several potential causes for the historic scarcity of these animals—inadequate forage, insufficient water, nonhuman predation, disease, and hunting by late-prehistoric humans. Archaeological and ecological evidence suggest that restricted availability of water coupled with hunting by late-prehistoric peoples probably were the most important causes. Perennial water is more widely distributed now than previously, mainly because of water well and water catchment construction. Proliferation of agriculture-based human economies in the region from AD 0–1500 led to rapid population growth of aboriginal peoples, with resulting increased harvests of resources. The likelihood that late-prehistoric humans severely depleted the abundances of large mammals indicates a need to reevaluate the exclusive use of early-historic conditions as the basis for setting goals for ecosystem management. Implications of reintroducing large herbivores to ecosystems are discussed.     

Regulating overabundant ungulate populations: an example for elk in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

In many areas of the world, populations of native ungulates have become so abundant that they are believed to be harming vegetation and disrupting ecosystem function. Methods for controlling overabundance populations include culling animals from the population and controlling fertility using contraceptives. However, understanding the feasibility these alternatives requires insight into their long-term effects on populations. We constructed a simulation model to evaluate options for regulating elk populations in and around Rocky Mountain National Park and used the model to compare different treatment options. Methods were evaulated with respect to the time required to reduce the population to a target level, the number of animals treated and/or culled and the risk of extinction. We contrasted culling with lifetime-effect contraceptives and yearlong contraceptives. Lifetime contraceptives required treating the fewest animals to maintain the population at desired targets. However, this approach also causes the greatest population variability and potential risk of extinction. Yearlong contraceptives required treatment of dramatically more animals but had essentially no extinction risk whereas culling produced intermediate levels of both extinction risk and number of animals treated. These results characterize the risks and benefits of alternative control strategies for overabundant wildlife. They emerge from a modeling approach that can be broadly useful in helping managers in choose between alternatives for regulating overabundant wildlife.     

Assessment of the rangelands of southwestern Santiago del Estero, Argentina, for grazing management and research

Native rangelands of the southwest part of the province of Santiago del Estero, Argentina, are a key source of forage for cow-calf operations. The objectives of this study were to delineate the ecosystem units of the area, to describe the associated plant communities and to interpret the role that physical factors and disturbances such as fire and grazing have had in the changes of the structure of these plant communities. This information is needed for developing recommendations for grazing management, for prescribing appropriate improvement practices (e.g. shrub control, prescribed fire) and as guidelines for future research. The ecosystem was divided into smaller units using a hierarchical method, the categories of practical importance being 'range unit' and 'range site'. They represent the catchment and hillslope scale of the water runoff-runon phenomenon, respectively. Vegetation was sampled using a block and cluster sampling design, registering tree, shrub, forb and grass species frequency, and the standing aerial biomass of the herbaceous layer in a sampling unit=1 ha. Environmental data (topographic position, fire frequency, current and past use, and tree and shrub cover) were also registered for each sampling unit. Indirect ordination of sampling units classified according to range units and range sites, and correlation with environmental variables were performed using multidimensional scaling (MDS) as well as the vector fitting technique. Standing forage and stocking rate were estimated from biomass data. Results indicate that 'range site' is the ecosystem unit that should be considered for management purposes since it correlates well with plant communities: tall, hardwood forests are located on upland sites, woodlands are located on midland sites and savannas are located on lowland sites. Dense shrub thickets dominate in areas rated in poor condition, irrespective of range site. Disturbances such as fire and current and past use have a significant positive and negative correlation with range condition, respectively, suggesting that a state and transition model would explain vegetation dynamics better than the succession model. The estimated stocking rate in lowland sites in good condition was 2 ha UG(-1), while in upland sites in poor condition the stocking rate was 90 ha UG(-1). Active (fire, mechanical treatments) rather than passive (grazing management) methods should be used for range improvement in order to achieve the full potential of the ecosystem.     

Factors influencing farmers' concerns regarding bovine tuberculosis in wildlife and livestock around Riding Mountain National Park

Despite intensive efforts over the last century to eradicate bovine tuberculosis (TB) in North America, several hotspots of infected wildlife and livestock remain, raising concerns that the disease will never be eradicated. The stress and frustration for a farmer caused by having a herd test positive for TB or living in an infected region can be substantial. The goal of this study was to investigate the concerns of farmers around Riding Mountain National Park (RMNP) regarding the presence of TB in wildlife and livestock and conduct an exploratory analysis of causal factors. Data were collected from 786 farmers within 50 km of RMNP using a mail-back questionnaire. Overall, farmers indicated a high level of concern toward diseases in both wildlife and cattle relative to other concerns. The spatial variables that had the greatest influence on TB concern were both the distance of farms to the RMNP boundary and distance of farms to previous cases of TB. The most important aspatial factor associated with high TB concern was the frequency with which farmers observed elk on their land. These results underscore the important differences between 'objective' measures of risk, such as epidemiological estimates of disease prevalence, and subjective measures of disease concern, such as risk perception and acceptability of management actions. Written responses suggest that concerns regarding disease may affect how farmers view wildlife on their land and their relationship with neighbouring protected areas. Management activities that reduce the frequency of elk interactions with farms, but also recognize the complex relationship that farmers have with wildlife and protected areas, will be most effective in mitigating farmer concern regarding this important problem.     

WATERSHED RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE AT GLACIER NATIONAL PARK1

ABSTRACT: We have developed an approach which examines ecosystem function and the potential effects of climatic shifts. The Lake McDonald watershed of Glacier National Park was the focus for two linked research activities: acquisition of baseline data on hydrologic, chemical and aquatic organism attributes that characterize this pristine northern rocky mountain watershed, and further developing the Regional Hydro-Ecosystem Simulation System (RHESSys), a collection of integrated models which collectively provide spatially explicit, mechanistically-derived outputs of ecosystem processes, including hydrologic outflow, soil moisture, and snow-pack water equivalence. In this unique setting field validation of RHESSys, outputs demonstrated that reasonable estimates of SWE and streamflow are being produced. RHESSys was used to predict annual stream discharge and temperature. The predictions, in conjunction with the field data, indicated that aquatic resources of the park may be significantly affected. Utilizing RHESSys to predict potential climate scenarios and response of other key ecosystem components can provide scientific insights as well as proactive guidelines for national park management.     

LONG-TERM WATERSHED RESEARCH AND MONITORING TO UNDERSTAND ECOSYSTEM CHANGE IN PARKS AND EQUIVALENT RESERVES1

ABSTRACT: Integrated watershed ecosystem studies in National Parks or equivalent reserves suggest that effects of external processes on “protected” resources are subtle, chronic, and long-term. Ten years of data from National Park watersheds suggests that temperature and precipitation changes are linked to nitrogen levels in lakes and streams. We envision measurable biotic effects in these remote watersheds, if expected climate trends continue. The condition of natural resources within areas set aside for preservation are difficult to ascertain, but gaining this knowledge is the key to understanding ecosystem change and of processes operating among biotic and abiotic ecosystem components. There is increasing evidence that understanding the magnitude of variation within and between such processes can provide an early indication of environmental change and trends attributable to human-induced stress. The following four papers are case studies of how this concept has been implemented.* These long-term studies have expanded our knowledge of ecosystem response to natural and human-induced stress. The existence of these sites with a commitment to gathering “long-term” ecosystem-level data permits research activities aimed at testing more important hypotheses on ecosystem processes and structure.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.     

Populations of domesticated cattle and buffalo in the Western Forest Complex of Thailand and their possible impacts on the wildlife community

The Western Forest Complex (WEFCOM) of Thailand is comprised of many protected areas and has one of the highest wildlife populations in the country. Populations of wildlife in the WEFCOM have decreased dramatically over recent years. Rapid economic development has resulted in the conversion of forest into agricultural and pastoral land, which has directly and indirectly impacted the wildlife community. This research aimed to evaluate populations of domesticated cattle (Bos indicus) and buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) in the WEFCOM and their possible impacts on the wildlife community. Domesticated cattle and buffalo keepers from 1561 (or 3.3%) of houses in and near WEFCOM were interviewed. The average number of animals per household was 15.6 cattle and 8.5 buffalo. Most villagers released domesticated cattle and buffalo to forage in the protected areas. This tended to have a high impact on the wildlife community in Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary and Tungyai Naresuan Wildlife Sanctuary. The least impacted areas were Luam Khlong Ngu National Park, Thong Pha Phum National Park and Chaleam Ratanakosin National Park. With a high risk to the wildlife community, law enforcement should be used in combination with a certain level of co-management with local communities.     

Quantifying Florida Bay Habitat Suitability for Fishes and Invertebrates Under Climate Change Scenarios

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.