Selecting a binary Markov model for a precipitation process

This paper uses rth-order categorical Markov chains to model the probability of precipitation. Several stationary and non-stationary high-order Markov models are proposed and compared using BIC. The number of parameters increases exponentially by adding the Markov order. Several classes of high-order Markov models are proposed which their increase of number of parameters are modest. For example models that use the number of precipitation days in a period prior to date, temperature of the previous day and sines/cosines periodic functions (to model the seasonality) are considered. The theory of partial likelihood is used to estimate the parameters. Parsimonious non-stationary first order Markov models with few seasonal terms are found optimal using BIC and temperature does not turn out to be a useful covariate. However BIC seems to underestimate the number of seasonal terms. We have also compared the results with AIC in some cases which tends to pick parsimonious models with more seasonal terms and higher order. We also show that ignoring seasonal terms result in picking higher order Markov chains. Finally we apply the methods to build confidence intervals for the probability of periods with no precipitation or low number of precipitation days in Calgary using historical data from 1980 to 2000.     

Concentration Evolution of Gas Species within a Collapsing Bubble in a Liquid Medium

In this study numerical methods are used to investigate the relationship between chemical concentration of gas species within a cavitating bubble, equilibrium radius of the gas bubble and pressure variations in the ambient liquid. For this purpose, governing equations are developed to describe the dynamic equilibrium of a bubble in a flowing fluid and mass transfer between gas and liquid phases, where it was assumed that gases undergo isothermal compression, obey the ideal gas law, Henry law. It is further assumed that the concentration of each phase within the bubble is uniform. The resulting nonlinear equations are solved using implicit Trapezoidal method with Newton iteration. Four gas species are modeled under various initial and ambient pressure variation conditions. These conditions maybe considered to represent typical cavitation events. The numerical results obtained are presented in terms of dimensionless numbers. These results indicate that chemical damage maybe an important component of cavitation surface damage, since high concentration profiles may develop within a collapsing bubble. Proposed formulation and numerical solutions are simple and cost effective to implement. The results presented in this study maybe used to benchmark experimental investigations or other more complex solutions, which are outside the scope of this study.     

Larvae of a colonial ascidian use a non-contact mode of substratum selection on a coral reef

The rate at which larvae successfully recruit into communities of marine benthic invertebrates is partially dependent upon how well larvae avoid benthic predators and settle on appropriate substrata. Therefore, to be able to predict recruitment success, information is needed on how larvae search for settlement sites, whether larvae preferentially settle on certain substrata, and the extent to which there are adequate cues for larvae to find these substrata. This article describes how larvae of the colonial ascidian Diplosoma similis find settlement sites on a coral reef. Direct field observations of larval settlement were made on a fringing reef in Kaneohe Bay, Oahu, Hawaii, between September 1985 and April 1986. A comparison of the substrata that larvae contacted prior to settlement relative to the percentage cover of these substrata on the study reef suggests that larvae are using a non-contact mode of substratum identification to locate suitable settlement sites. This mode of substratum identification allowed 74% of larvae to evade predation by benthic organisms who would otherwise have eaten larvae if they had been contacted. Of those larvae that evaded predation, 88% subsequently settled on the same two substrata upon which most adults are found (dead coral or the green alga Dictyosphaeria cavernosa). This pattern of settlement was probably a result of active selection, since the two substrata cover only 14.4% of the reef's surface and currents had little effect on the direction in which larvae swam. An important contributing factor to the high success rate of larval settlement on suitable substrata was the lack of any temporal decay in substratum preference. It is concluded that for Diplosoma similis larval supply is a sufficient predictor of larval settlement rate. However, for marine invertebrates whose larvae are passively dispersed and exhibit a greater temporal decay in substratum preference, larval settlement should generally have a greater dependency on spatial variation in the abundance of benthic predators and suitable substrata.     

Removal process estimation of population size for a population with a known sex ratio

A removal model for estimating population size which uses the known population sex ratio is studied. A maximum likelihood estimate and an optimal martingale estimate of the population size are proposed. Their standard errors and large sample properties are obtained. Simulation studies are reported, and the performance of the proposed estimators are compared with the standard maximum likelihood estimator which ignores the sex ratio information. An example on a capture study of deer mice is given.     

Instantaneous transport of a passive scalar in a turbulent separated flow

The results of large-eddy simulations of flow and transient solute transport over a backward facing step and through a 180° bend are presented. The simulations are validated successfully in terms of hydrodynamics and tracer transport with experimental velocity data and measured residence time distribution curves confirming the accuracy of the method. The hydrodynamics are characterised by flow separation and subsequent recirculation in vertical and horizontal directions and the solute dispersion process is a direct response to the significant unsteadiness and turbulence in the flow. The turbulence in the system is analysed and quantified in terms of power density spectra and covariance of velocity fluctuations. The injection of an instantaneous passive tracer and its dispersion through the system is simulated. Large-eddy simulations enable the resolution of the instantaneous flow field and it is demonstrated that the instabilities of intermittent large-scale structures play a distinguished role in the solute transport. The advection and diffusion of the scalar is governed by the severe unsteadiness of the flow and this is visualised and quantified. The analysis of the scalar mass transport budget quantifies the mechanisms controlling the turbulent mixing and reveals that the mass flux is dominated by advection.     

Estimating the objectives of a public firm in a natural resource industry

The purpose of this paper is to understand the behavior of policymakers in a public firm. To accomplish this goal, the objectives of a government-owned firm operating in the Saskatchewan uranium industry are econometrically estimated. The estimates are used to determine the importance policymakers attach to the outcomes resulting from their behavior and to examine how the firm might respond to changes in its economic environment. Empirical results indicate that the public firm is willing to reduce profits in order to increase employment and reserves.     

Mate choice tactics and swarm size: a model and a test in a dance fly

In the dance flyEmpis borealis (L.) (Diptera: Empididae) females gather to swarm and males visit swarms for mating. A model was constructed, based on previously published data, simulating how males may choose among females of different sizes in swarms of different sizes. The focal question was, what influences the number of individuals in the swarm in this and possibly other swarming insects? The relationships between original swarm size and both the number of males arriving per minute and the proportion of males mating are both logarithmic. The model predicted that if these relationships were linear, or if males were able to judge absolute female size, the mean swarm size should increase and be at least four times as large as those found in the field. The only type of male mate choice strategy that gave rise to very large swarms (>25) was size-related choice (if males are able to assess the size of a female in relation to the entire population and not merely to the swarm). Furthermore, no swarming behaviour would occur if males mate independently of swarm size. Thus, the numbers of females attending a given swarm site are influenced by male arrival pattern, male preference for larger swarms, the inability of males to judge the absolute body size of females, and female polyandry. Males searching for mates seem to prefer larger swarms than females searching for a swarm to join, but the mean swarm size is primarily set by the swarm size preference of females. Optimal swarm size predicted from the model was 4.68±0.53 females. In order to test model predictions, 69 natural swarm sites were studied during one season. The mean swarm size was 4.85±4.54 females (median 4.03), and about 90% of swarms consisted of 11 females or fewer. Predicted and observed swarm size did not differ significantly.     

Assessing landscape values: a proposal for a multidimensional conceptual model

To evaluate a specific form of resource management, for example, the maintenance of valuable cultural landscapes, the contributions of many different viewpoints must be considered. In this paper, a model for assessing and integrating the different aspects contributing to landscape evaluation is proposed. Some results of its use in landscape assessment in the Madrid region (central Spain) are discussed.The model takes into account five assessment dimensions which are considered to be independent—the ecological, productive, economic, social and cultural evaluative systems and it recognises and assumes conflicts and trade-offs between these components. The inclusion of the production system as an independent assessment dimension is original and is justified because it is the link that connects the ecological and economic systems. Since this dimension acts most directly on the ecosystem, the production system includes the attribute of ecological or strong (in the sense of [For the Common Good, Beacon Press, Boston, 1994]) sustainability.The evaluation method places special emphasis on defining a conceptual framework, and from this defines scenarios in comparison with which particular development models (landscape planning, resources management) can be evaluated. Seven scenarios, coming from a hypothetical, traditional sustainable scenario of resources management, are defined. One of these, the sound sustainable scenario, is defended as the only one viable in the long term, particularly in developing countries.This method was employed to evaluate the agricultural and natural landscape of the Madrid region municipalities. The multivariate approach adopted was based on the selection of indicator sets for each evaluative dimension. The structure of relationships among indicators was then analysed separately for each dimension and values assigned to the municipalities according to their position on the main axes of the multivariate analyses. Each municipality was assigned to one of the seven development scenarios by means of discriminant analysis. The approach’s greatest assets are its flexibility in the selection of the indicators and the efficacy in its monitoring and comparison of the different analysed cases once a rigorous conceptual framework was established.The paper discusses the conditions for the sustainability of the human activities and provides a method for evaluating and comparing scenarios of resources management.     

Estimating Population Size in a Continuous-time Removal Experiment with a Known Sub-population Size Ratio

We study a continuous-time removal model for estimating the population size for a population in which a sub-population size ratio is known. The maximum likelihood estimate and the optimal martingale estimate of the population size are obtained; these are shown to be equivalent. A comparison between the proposed estimator and the maximum likelihood estimate which ignores the information on the known size ratio is made, using a simulation study. The asymptotic variances of these two estimators are also obtained, and a comparison between them is made. The sensitivity of mis-specification of the known size ratio is examined. We also apply the corresponding discrete-time model to the proposed continuous-time setting, and study the efficiency of the corresponding discrete-time type estimator relative to the proposed estimator.     

Evolution of spit morphology: a case study using a remote sensing and statistical based approach

The dynamics and factors responsible for morphological changes of spits viz., Uliyargoli-Padukere, Oddu Bengre and Kodi Bengre, southern Karnataka, India, are investigated using multi-dated satellite images and topographic maps during the last 95-years (1910–2005). Variations and overall rate of changes in length, area and coefficient of determination (R²) of each spit are calculated separately for two periods (1910 and 1967 as base years) to find out whether there is any significant trend in the case of change in length and area in all the three spits that are under study. Linear trend lines are fitted using a least squares method and the statistical significance is considered at 80 % level of confidence. The results recorded significant changes in spit morphology, especially in length and area if 1910 and 1967 are considered separately as base years, are may be due to non-availability of data set between 1910 and 1967 period. The study reveals that coastal processes, such as SW-monsoon influenced strong currents and longshore drifts are the main process for formation and growth of spits, whereas rivers influence/drift also plays significant role. The statistical uncertainty estimation in spits morphology is prevalent wherever the coast is affected by human interventions. The study demonstrates that combined use of satellite imagery and statistical techniques can be effectively used to understand the evolution of spits morphology.     

Optimal exploitation of a fishery employing a non-linear harvesting function

A harvesting function is developed to described the rate of removal of fish from a fish population. The function incorporates the effects of both the handling or processing time of the catch and the competition, between boats in the fleet, for the fish.We will assume that the growth rate of the fish population can be modelled with a concave, dome shaped growth curve. With this assumption, it has been shown that if the rate of harvesting the fish is linearly related to both effort (which can be thought of as some measure of the number of boats in the fleet) and the population size, then the population will tend towards a single equilibrium level which is globally stable. This paper shows that the saturation effects due to the handling time may generate two equilibrium levels (one stable, one unstable) rather than a single globally stable equilibrium. The results of competition between boats are economically undesirable because of the decrease in efficiency. However, this competition may be beneficial to the exploited fish population.Using the harvesting model derived earlier, the steady state or long term optimal harvesting policies as well as the transition paths to these states are developed. The only constraint is on the maximum allowable effort which is effectively an upper limitation on the fleet size or number of man-hours of fishing.     

Temporal patterns of populations in a warming world: a modelling framework

In this paper, we present an approach for describing the environmentally induced temporal pattern of structured populations by partial integro-differential equations. Populations are structured according to size or stage. Growth, energy allocation and stage transitions are affected by environmental conditions of which temperature, photoperiod, water depth and food supply were taken into account. The resulting modelling framework was applied to describe, analyse and predict alterations in populations with continuous development, populations with distinct state structures and interacting populations. Our exemplary applications consider populations of freshwater Amphipoda, Isopoda and Odonata. The model was capable of simulating life cycle alterations in dependence on temperature in interaction with other environmental factors: (1) population dynamics, (2) seasonal regulation, (3) water depth-dependent dispersal, (4) intraguild predation and (5) consumer-resource dynamics.     

Dark, bitter-tasting nectar functions as a filter of flower visitors in a bird-pollinated plant

Floral nectar is offered by plants to animals as a reward for pollination. While nectar is typically a clear liquid containing sugar and trace amounts of amino acids, colored nectar has evolved in several plant families. Here we explore the functional significance of the phenolic compounds that impart a dark brown color to the nectar of the South African succulent shrub Aloe vryheidensis. Flowers of this aloe are visited for their nectar by a suite of short-billed birds that are occasional nectarivores, including bulbuls, white-eyes, rock thrushes, and chats. Dark-capped Bulbuls were more likely to probe model flowers containing dark nectar than those containing clear nectar, suggesting a potential signaling function for dark nectar. However, the main effect of the phenolics appears to be to repel "unwanted" nectarivores that find their bitter taste unpalatable. Nectar-feeding honey bees and sunbirds are morphologically mismatched for pollinating A. vryheidensis flowers and strongly reject its nectar. However, the frugivorous and insectivorous birds that effectively pollinate this aloe are seemingly unaffected by the nectar's bitter taste. Thus the dark phenolic component of the nectar appears to function as a floral filter by attracting some animals visually and deterring others by its taste.     

Identification of a sex pheromone from a rotifer

The first isolation and characterization of a sex pheromone from a zooplankter is reported. A 29 kdalton glycoprotein on the surface of females of the marine rotifer Brachionus plicatilis acts as a contact-mating pheromone. This glycoprotein (gp29) is glycosylated with oligosaccharides containing Nacetylglucosamine, mannose, and fucose residues, and these oligosaccharides are necessary for male recognition of females. Males detect this signal by contact chemoreception with receptors located in their corona. Binding of purified glycoprotein to male receptors reduces mating attempts by 93%. An antibody to the glycoprotein binds to females, reducing male mating attempts by 86%. When purified gp29 is bound to sepharose beads, it is sufficient to elicit male mating behavior. This glycoprotein is likely to play a key role in the evolution and maintenance of reproductive isolation in rotifers.     

Numerical simulation of stratified flow around a tall building of a complex shape

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - Results of large-eddy simulations of stably stratified atmospheric flow around an isolated, complex-shaped tall building are presented. The study focuses on the...     

Optimization model for a wolf-ungulate system

Public outcries against predator control create a need to devise management policies that optimally balance the cost (managerial and environmental) of predator control against the benefit of ungulate harvesting. To address this problem, an optimization procedure utilizing stochastic dynamic programming is described. Through this approach, optimal feedback strategies for a wolf-ungulate system in Alaska are estimated. The dynamic predator-prey model used in the analysis is based on parameter estimates from data collected over an eight-year period in Denali (Mt. McKinley) National Park. Stability analysis of the system revealed that stability properties depend on predator search efficiency. The effects of random fluctuations in winter severity and alternative objective functions are considered in the estimation of optimal feedback strategies. Optimal moose harvesting strategies appear to be dependent on wolf control costs. If no wolf control cost is assessed, optimal moose harvest is independent of wolf density. Optimal wolf control strategies are completely insensitive to moose density. The strategies are compared to current and simplified management policies.     

Ecological Sustainability as a Conservation Concept

Neither the classic resource management concept of maximum sustainable yield nor the concept of sustainable development are useful to contemporary, nonanthropocentric, ecologically informed conservation biology. As an alternative, we advance an ecological definition of sustainability that is in better accord with biological conservation: meeting human needs without compromising the health of ecosystems. In addition to familiar benefit-cost constraints on human economic activity, we urge adding ecologic constraints. Projects are not choice-worthy if they compromise the health of the ecosystems in which human economic systems are embedded. Sustainability, so defined, is proffered as an approach to conservation that would complement wildlands preservation for ecological integrity, not substitute for wildlands preservation.     

Symmetric fights as a measure of escalation potential in a symbiotic,territorial snapping shrimp

Summary The shrimp Alpheus armatus territorially defends the sea anemone it occupies, using as a weapon its large, specially modified snapping claw. This behavior was studied in experimental contests which were symmetric (matched individuals) with respect to sex, size, and residency. Characteristics of these contests were compared for two size-classes of male and female shrimp.There were no significant differences between these groups of shrimp in the number of bouts required to establish dominance or in the number of snaps exchanged. Large females had shorter contests than either small or large males, and losers of contests between large females were injured more frequently and more severely.This distinctiveness of large female contests could be interpreted as evidence that (i) controlling anemones is more important for large females, (ii) injuries are less important for large females, or (iii) large females lose the ability to assess one another because their contests are less frequent.If injuries are an accurate measure of the most important costs associated with fighting, then these results indicate that short contests are not necessarily the least costly, and that females can be more aggressive than males, as measured by escalation potential, in sexually selected species.     

Optimum size limit for a fishery with a limited fishing season

In the management of a fishery with many year-classes, a standard objective is to maximize the biomass yield. If the fishing effort is fixed, this objective can be attained by prescribing an optimum size limit. This implies that only fish which are larger than the optimum size limit should be caught. The theory for computing the optimum size limit when fishing is carried out continuously is well established. In contrast the theory for computing the optimum size limit when the fishing season is limited to the same period in each year has not been developed in spite of the fact that many fisheries are exploited in this manner. A fishing season may be limited because the weather or the migration patterns of the fish population permits fishing only during a certain period in the year. A fishing season may also be limited because it is necessary to reduce the fishing mortality in order to conserve the fish population.A theory for computing the optimum size limit when the fishing season is limited is developed in this paper. It is applied to a hypothetical fishery. The data for this example comes from the North Sea plaice fishery. It is found that for a given fishing effort the optimum size limit is 44.5 cm if fishing is carried out continuously, 41.3 cm if fishing is limited to 6 months in a year and 28.7 cm if fishing is limited to a period of one tenth of a year in each year.