Tropical cyclone losses in the USA and the impact of climate change — A trend analysis based on data from a new approach to adjusting storm losses

Economic losses caused by tropical cyclones have increased dramatically. Historical changes in losses are a result of meteorological factors (changes in the incidence of severe cyclones, whether due to natural climate variability or as a result of human activity) and socio-economic factors (increased prosperity and a greater tendency for people to settle in exposed areas). This paper aims to isolate the socio-economic effects and ascertain the potential impact of climate change on this trend. Storm losses for the period 1950–2005 have been adjusted to the value of capital stock in 2005 so that any remaining trend cannot be ascribed to socio-economic developments. For this, we introduce a new approach to adjusting losses based on the change in capital stock at risk. Storm losses are mainly determined by the intensity of the storm and the material assets, such as property and infrastructure, located in the region affected. We therefore adjust the losses to exclude increases in the capital stock of the affected region. No trend is found for the period 1950–2005 as a whole. In the period 1971–2005, since the beginning of a trend towards increased intense cyclone activity, losses excluding socio-economic effects show an annual increase of 4% per annum. This increase must therefore be at least due to the impact of natural climate variability but, more likely than not, also due to anthropogenic forcings.     

Relation Between Individual Tree Mortality and Tree Characteristics in a Polluted and Non-Polluted Environmentx

Data on individual tree mortality in relatively healthy (Berezinskiy biosphere reserve) and damaged (surroundings of the mineral fertilizer plant ‘Achema’) even-aged Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands are presented. Tree size and competition intensity were found to be the most significant predictors of individual tree mortality in all age groups of the relatively healthy Scots pine stands, however, an essential reduction in the closeness of relations between the tree mortality rate and these variables was determined with the aging of stands. An exponential decrease in tree mortality probability with an increase of tree size is characteristic for trees suffering different competition intensity, however, this decrease becomes much more pronounced as the competition pressure increases. The relations of different tree and stand variables with tree mortality probability have been found to become much weaker in the polluted environment. An exponential increase in tree mortality probability with an increase of crown defoliation was characteristic of damaged Scots pine stands, however, the rate of the increase was different in different age and diameter classes. The impact of crown defoliation on tree mortality rate increased with the aging of stands. At the same defoliation level, individual tree mortality probability was much higher for smaller suppressed trees, however, a relative increase in tree mortality probability along with an increase of crown defoliation was more pronounced for dominant trees. Conclusion: a higher mortality of damaged (defoliated) trees should be considered while assessing losses in forest productivity in a polluted environment.     

Application of a Dialysis Sampler to Monitor Phytoremediation Processes

A cylindrical dialysis sampler (1.2 m in length; 5 cm in diameter) was designed and constructed to sample small–scale phytoremediation processes in the root zone of poplar trees. The study site was a 183–tree plantation of hybrid poplars located at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, at the J–Field Area of Concern. The grove was planted in 1996 to intercept a chlorinated solvent plume containing 1,1,2,2–tetrachloroethane (1,1,2,2–TeCA, trichloroethene (TCE) and daughter products. Two dialysis samplers were installed: one directly in the poplar grove (approximately 0.3 m from the trunk of a mature tree) and the other outside of the grove but in the plume. Data collected included concentrations of chlorinated VOCs, organic acids, chloroacetic acids, Cl⁻, and dissolved gases (ethane, ethene, CH₄, CO₂). At the control location, the VOC profile was dominated by cis– 1,2–dichloroethene (cis–1,2–DCE) and trans–1,2–dichloroethene (trans–1,2–DCE) with concentrations ranging from 0.88-4.5 to 4.4-17.6 mg/L, respectively. Concentrations of VOCs were similar across the vertical profile. At the tree location, 1,1,2,2–TeCA and TCE were the dominant VOCs detected but as opposed to the control location were highly variable within the root zone, with the greatest variability associated with locations in the sampler where roots were observed. This highly variable profile at the tree location is indicative of VOC rhizosphere biodegradation and uptake near the active roots. This variability appears to be on the centimeter scale, emphasizing the importance of these high–resolution samplers for the study of rhizosphere influences.     

Copper mine tailing disposal in northern Chile rocky shores: Enteromorpha compressa (Chlorophyta) as a sentinel species

The study assesses the ecological impact caused by the El Salvador untreated (1975–1990) and treated (1991–1994) copper mine tailings on rocky intertidal communities in and around the dumping site at Caleta Palito, northern Chile. Ecological changes are monitored for 16 years in polluted and unpolluted sites within a geographical area of 90 km. Copper concentration levels in water and the intertidal Chlorophyta E. compressa are presented. The results confirm a notorious reduction in the number of species and significant differences between polluted and unpolluted intertidal communities. At polluted sites, following the initiation of the disposal, all species of invertebrates and algae disappeared and primary space (rock) was partially or completely dominated by E. compressa along more than a decade. Its persistence in these sites supports the view that this taxon is a sentinel species resisting high levels of copper pollution. During the past four years, following the steps given to treat the tailings, at polluted sites there are preliminary indications showing increases in the number of species of algae and invertebrate. The need for future monitoring to elucidate ecosystem restoration processes is discussed.     

Estimation of riverine loads of nitrogen and phosphorus to the Baltic Sea, 1970–1993

This article presents the results of the first critical examination of time series of riverine nutrient-load data for the entire Baltic Sea drainage area. Water quality data collected by or for the different national environmental agencies were compiled and analysed statistically to identify and remove inconsistent or obviously incorrect observations. Moreover, sampling tours were undertaken to acquire additional information about the present nutrient concentrations in the largest rivers in the study area. Gaps in the time series of approved data were then filled in by employing statistical interpolation and extrapolation methods. Thereafter, the concentration and runoff data were combined to obtain estimates of monthly nutrient loads for the time period 1970–93. The results of the calculations showed that although there had been substantial changes in land use, atmospheric deposition and wastewater treatment in many parts of the study area, the total riverine loads of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to the Baltic Sea have been fairly constant since 1980, and most likely also since 1970. Moreover, the interannual variation was clearly correlated to the runoff. The mean annual loads for the time period 1980–93 were found to be about 825 000 tonnes N and 41 000 tonnes P, respectively. This implies that (i) several other investigators have strongly underestimated the riverine loads of nutrients, especially the nitrogen, and that (ii) the riverine loads by far exceed the input to the Baltic Sea from other sources, {i.e.} atmospheric deposition, direct emissions from cities and industries along the Baltic Sea coast and nitrogen fixation by marine algae.     

Assessment of growth and stemwood quality of Scots pine on territory influenced by alkaline industrial dust

Long-term influence of alkaline dust (pH 12.3–12.7) pollution emitted over 40 years from a cement plant in Estonia was the reason of alkalisation (pH 6.7–7.9) and high concentrations of K, Ca and Mg in the soil of affected territories. Although dust emission has diminished during the last 10 years, the disbalances in nutrition substrate and their influence on the growth of trees are notable up to now. The study of morphological and physical properties of 70–80-year-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) crown, stems and stemwood from three different air pollution zones showed serious deviations in comparison with a relatively healthy forest in an unpolluted area. The specimens from polluted trees, if compared to reference site, showed significantly smaller height growth, radial increment and width of annual rings of sapwood. In heartwood wider annual rings were found in polluted areas. In the period of heartwood formation the dust pollution level emitted from the plant was relatively modest and cement dust, which contains elements necessary for mineral nutrition of trees, may have acted as fertiliser. The moisture content in sapwood and heartwood, especially in the upper layers of stems, was lower in the polluted area than in reference site trees. Regression analysis revealed a strong dependence between latewood percentage and sapwood or heartwood in stems of Scots pine in all sample plots.     

Evaluation of air pollution phytotoxicity in a seasonally dry tropical urban environment

This study was conducted in the urban environment of Varanasi, India, to evaluate the plant responses to urban air pollution. Twenty sites were selected in four different zones of the city. At each site, seven woody perennials of same age classes were selected. Out of the four zones (I, II, III and IV), zone IV was used as a reference (control) zone as it received the minimum pollution input. Plant species growing in polluted and control areas were compared with respect to foliar dust load, per cent leaf area injury, leaf area, specific leaf weight and chlorophyll, ascorbic acid, SO ₄ ^2– S and total N concentration in the leaves. Results indicated that the air pollution level in Varanasi causes leaf damage, reduces leaf area, specific leaf weight and chlorophyll, ascorbic acid and total N concentrations in the leaves. Sulphur concentration in leaves increased with increasing level of SO₂ in the ambient air. The magnitude of such changes was maximum at the zone receiving maximum pollution load. Carissa carandas was found to be the most sensitive species and Bougainvillea spectabilis, the least. The study shows that the urban air pollution level in Varanasi is detrimental for the growth of plants involved in this study.     

Relationships between water mass characteristics and estimates of fish population abundance from trawl surveys

The Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans conducts annual bottom trawl surveys to monitor changes in the abundance of the major commercially important groundfish populations. Some of these surveys have been in operation for almost 20 yr. The estimates from these surveys often indicate rapid changes in abundance over time beyond that expected from the population dynamics of the fish. Much of this interannual change has been interpreted as variation, the magnitude of which has often made it difficult to measure anything but the most severe effects of fishing, pollution or any other intervention on the population. Recent studies have shown that some of this variation may be attributed to changes in catchability of fish due to the effects of environmental variables on fish distribution. Annual changes in abundance as estimated from such field surveys may be confounded by changes in catchability due to annual changes in environmental conditions. In this study, trawl catches of age 4 Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) from surveys conducted during March 1979–1988 were compared with concurrent measurements of bottom salinity, temperature and depth. Large catches of age 4 cod are more likely to occur in water characterized as the intermediate cold layer defined by salinities of 32–33.5 and temperatures<5°C. This relationship also appears to be modified by depth. We further show that internnual changes in the estimated abundance from the surveys were, in a number of cases, coincident with changes in the proportion of the bottom water composed of the intermediate cold water layer. The implications that these patterns may have on interpreting trends in the estimates of abundance from trawl surveys are discussed.     

Bioaccumulation of Toxic Organic Compounds and Their Isomers into the Organism of Seals in West-Estonian Archipelago Biosphere Reserve

The Estonian coastal waters serve as the south-eastern boundary of the regular distribution of the grey (Halichoerus grypus and ringed Phoca hispida) seal in the Baltic Sea. During the annual molt period in May–June (in the Estonian coastal waters), the stock size is estimated to be 1200–1500 grey seal individuals – that is, roughly 25% of the whole Baltic population. If we compare the chlororganic contents of seals in different areas the Baltic Sea, we can see that the northern part of the Gulf of Riga and Väinameri Sea is the reference area of the Baltic Sea.     

Aerial Monitoring of Marine Waterfowl in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea

The purpose of this study was to design and test a monitoring protocol for marine waterfowl in the central Alaskan Beaufort Sea. The study provides an important case-study of how a long-term monitoring program may be affected by unanticipated human disturbances.Because of its overwhelming and widespread abundance, relatively sedentary behavior, ease in counting, and the extensive historical database, the long-tailed duck (Clangula hyemalis) was selected as the focal species. Two null hypotheses were formulated concerning potential changes in the numbers and distribution of long-tailed ducks in relation to disturbance in an industrial study area, compared to a reference study area located about 50 km to the east.A 9-year historical database (1977–1984, 1989) of long-tailed duck densities and other important data recorded during systematic aerial surveys was analyzed retrospectively using multiple regression techniques. The retrospective analyses determined which of several predictor variables recorded were significantly related to long-tailed duck density. Separate analyses were conducted for two periods: (1) the overall period when long-tailed ducks were present in the lagoon study areas, and (2) the shorter adult male molt period. The results of the two analyses indicated that 57% and 68%, respectively, of the total variation in long-tailed duck density during the two periods could be explained by variables recorded during the surveys. Predictor variables representing habitat, day of the year, time of day, amount of ice, and wave height recorded on-transect during surveys were most closely associated with long-tailed duck density. Measurement error during the surveys, and influences outside the study area such as nesting success in tundra habitats and mortality during migration and in over-wintering areas likely also had strong influences on the results, but these factors were not measurable in our study.Based on results of the retrospective analyses, a long-term monitoring protocol consisting of a program of systematic aerial surveys and an analyses of variance and covariance (ANOVA and ANCOVA) statistical procedure was designed and initially tested in 1990 and 1991. This 2-year testing phase resulted in several revisions to the monitoring protocol. Refinements were made to the original sampling procedures, to the survey schedule, and to the recommended statistical analysis procedures. Results of the ANOVA and ANCOVA indicated that there was no evidence of a change in long-tailed duck densities that could be attributable to disturbance (from any source) in the industrial study area relative to a reference area with no industrial development. Other analyses indicated that the sampling and analysis procedures would be adequate to detect long-term trends in long-tailed duck density and localized disturbance effects, but that the monitoring program should be continued well beyond two years to detect statistically significant changes. As a result, additional aerial surveys of both study areas were conducted again during 1999–2001.Results of the revised ANOVA and ANCOVA of the 1990–1991 and 1999–2001 survey data indicated that the density of long-tailed ducks had significantly declined in coastal lagoons along the central Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast during the study period. In addition, disturbances throughout the barrier island-lagoon systems used by these ducks, including both the industrial and the reference study areas, had significantly increased over the same period. However, because unanticipated disturbances from a variety of anthropogenic sources, and not just industry sources, increased in both study areas, the reference study area was not an effective statistical control. As a result, the decline in long-tailed duck density in both study areas was not attributable to industry-related activities. Although the monitoring protocol described here is an effective method to detect statistically significant changes in long-tailed duck distribution and abundance in the nearshore Alaskan Beaufort Sea, many more years of sampling would be necessary to attribute observed changes to industry-related disturbances.