Factors affecting N and P losses from small catchments (Lithuania)

Most of the important factors causing differences in nutrient losses and their interaction were analysed in three small catchments that are located in partially different geographic and climatic conditions in Lithuania. The investigation revealed that climatic factors change the amount and pattern of water discharge over year (larger water discharge during winter in the catchment located closer to the sea), but nutrient leaching is more dependent on land use. Agricultural factors, such as larger cultivated area and excessive fertilisation in one catchment cause larger nitrogen losses (15 kg N ha^–1 year^–1). Large area of non-intensively used grassland leads to very small nitrogen losses (5.7 kg N ha^–1 year^–1) in another catchment. However, larger water discharge combined with loamy sandy soils leads to comparatively high nitrogen losses (12 kg N ha^–1 year^–1). The highest P losses (0.318 kg P ha^–1 year^–1) occurred in the catchment with hilly relief and clay soil texture. In summary, extensive agriculture in the post-Soviet countries has reduced the importance of agricultural activity for the extent of nutrient losses and agricultural factors (cultivation, fertilisation and livestock density) are responsible for the losses only in the region of sufficient agricultural activity (N input – 71.5 kg N ha^–1, livestock density – 0.87 LU ha^–1).     

Assessing the Impacts of Forests on Human Welfare: Preliminary Results from the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment

This paper presents results from the first phase of the socio-economic assessment of forest ecosystems in the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAIA). First, we present results of the analysis of changes in the distribution of human population and forest land use in the region. Then, trends in wood products employment and income between 1975–95 are used to examine the economic contributions of forest-based industries in the Mid-Atlantic region. Between 1970–90 the population of the MAIA region increased by 14% (4.3 million people) resulting in the average population density increasing by 25 people per square mile from 179 to 204 people per square mile. Nevertheless, population density was lower in large parts of the region in 1990 than in 1950. Although forests dominate the MAIA landscape, the trend is toward more people owning smaller forest land holdings, with developed lands increasing by 21% and rural lands decreasing by 2.64% between 1982–94. All of this suggests increasing forest fragmentation in all states of the region except New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Forest industry has been an important contributor to the economy of the MAIA region, producing an average of a quarter million jobs (2.03% of all wage employment) and generating $4.5 billion in wages and salaries each year between 1975–95. If recent trends continue, forest industry will continue to be an important source of employment and income for parts of some states in the MAIA region; however, the forest industry's importance relative to the entire mid-Atlantic economy will likely continue to decline in the 21^st century.     

Impact of desertification on temperature trends in the Middle East

The intense interest in desertification and climate change has stimulated detailed studies of temperature records in many areas of the world. In this investigation, the temperature records from the Middle East region are analyzed over the period 1950–1990. Results reveal a linear, statistically significant temperature increase of 0.07 °C/decade over the 41-year period. An analysis of spatial controls on these temperature changes reveals a warming effect associated with both overgrazing and the degree of human-induced desertification. The results of this study are consistent with theoretical and empirical studies predicting and demonstrating a warming signal associated with these land surface changes in the world's dryland areas.     

Mesoscale ecohydrological modelling to analyse regional effects of climate change

Hydrological processes and crop growth were simulated for the state of Brandenburg (Germany) using the hydrological/vegetation/water quality model SWIM, which can be applied for mesoscale river basins or regions. Hydrological validation was carried out for three mesoscale river basins in the area. The crop growth module was validated regionally for winter wheat, winter barley and maize. After that the analysis of climate change impacts on hydrology and crop growth was performed, using a transient 1.5 K scenario of climate change for Brandenburg and restricting the crop spectrum to the three above mentioned crops. According to the scenario, precipitation is expected to increase. The impact study was done comparing simulation results for two scenario periods 2022–2030 and 2042–2050 with those for a reference period 1981–1992. The atmospheric CO₂ concentrations for the reference period and two scenario periods were set to 346, 406 and 436 ppm, respectively. Two different methods – an empirical one and a semi-mechanistic one – were used for adjustment of net photosynthesis to altered CO₂. With warming, the model simulates an increase of evapotranspiration (+9.5%, +15.4%) and runoff (+7.0%, +17.2%). The crop yield was only slightly altered under the climate change only scenario (no CO₂ fertilization effect) for barley and maize, and it was reduced for wheat (–6.2%, –10.3%). The impact of higher atmospheric CO₂ compensated for climate-related wheat yield losses, and resulted in an increased yield both for barley and maize compared to the reference scenario. The simulated combined effect of climate change and elevated CO₂ on crop yield was about 7% higher for the C₃ crops when the CO₂ and temperature interaction was ignored. The assumption that stomatal control of transpiration is taking place at the regional scale led to further increase in crop yield, which was larger for maize than for wheat and barley. The regional water balance was practically not affected by the partial stimulation of net photosynthesis due to higher CO₂, while the introduction of stomatal control of regional transpiration reduced evapotranspiration and enlarged notably runoff and ground water recharge.     

Bioaccumulation of Toxic Organic Compounds and Their Isomers into the Organism of Seals in West-Estonian Archipelago Biosphere Reserve

The Estonian coastal waters serve as the south-eastern boundary of the regular distribution of the grey (Halichoerus grypus and ringed Phoca hispida) seal in the Baltic Sea. During the annual molt period in May–June (in the Estonian coastal waters), the stock size is estimated to be 1200–1500 grey seal individuals – that is, roughly 25% of the whole Baltic population. If we compare the chlororganic contents of seals in different areas the Baltic Sea, we can see that the northern part of the Gulf of Riga and Väinameri Sea is the reference area of the Baltic Sea.     

Hydrology of mountainous areas in the upper Indus Basin, Northern Pakistan with the perspective of climate change

Mountainous areas in the northern Pakistan are blessed by numerous rivers that have great potential in water resources and hydropower production. Many of these rivers are unexploited for their water resource potential. If the potential of these rivers are explored, hydropower production and water supplies in these areas may be improved. The Indus is the main river originating from mountainous area of the Himalayas of Baltistan, Pakistan in which most of the smaller streams drain. In this paper, the hydrology of the mountainous areas in northern Pakistan is studied to estimate flow pattern, long-term trend in river flows, characteristics of the watersheds, and variability in flow and water resource due to impact of climate change. Eight watersheds including Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, Astore, Jhelum, Swat, and Chitral, Pakistan have been studied from 1960 to 2005 to monitor hydrological changes in relation to variability in precipitation, temperature and mean monthly flows, trend of snow melt runoff, analysis of daily hydrographs, water yield and runoff relationship, and flow duration curves. Precipitation from ten meteorological stations in mountainous area of northern Pakistan showed variability in the winter and summer rains and did not indicate a uniform distribution of rains. Review of mean monthly temperature of ten stations suggested that the Upper Indus Basin can be categorized into three hydrological regimes, i.e., high-altitude catchments with large glacierized parts, middle-altitude catchments south of Karakoram, and foothill catchments. Analysis of daily runoff data (1960-2005) of eight watersheds indicated nearly a uniform pattern with much of the runoff in summer (June-August). Impact of climate change on long-term recorded annual runoff of eight watersheds showed fair water flows at the Hunza and Jhelum Rivers while rest of the rivers indicated increased trends in runoff volumes. The study of the water yield availability indicated a minimum trend in Shyok River at Yogo and a maximum trend in Swat River at Kalam. Long-term recorded data used to estimate flow duration curves have shown a uniform trend and are important for hydropower generation for Pakistan which is seriously facing power crisis in last 5 years.     

Losses of nitrogen and phosphorus from agricultural and forest areas in Finland during the 1980s and 1990s

The temporal changes and spatial variability of phosphorus andnitrogen losses and concentrations in Finland during the period1981–1997 were studied in 15 small agricultural and forestedcatchments. In addition, four coastal river basins with highagricultural land use located in southern Finland were includedin the study in order to assess the representativeness ofagricultural loss estimates from small agricultural catchments.The mean annual loss specific for agricultural land was estimatedto be on average 110 kg km^-2 a^-1 for total phosphorusand 1500 kg km^-2 a^-1 for total nitrogen. The resultsfrom small agricultural catchments were in agreement with thecorresponding loss estimates from rivers, with an average of137 kg km^-2 a^-1 for total phosphorus and 1800 kg km^-2a^-1 for total nitrogen. The results from the studiedagricultural catchments and rivers during the period 1981–1997suggest that weather-driven fluctuation in discharge was usuallythe main reason for changes in nutrient losses, and little or noimpact of changes in agricultural production or managementpractises can be observed. In forested areas the total phosphorusloss (average 9 kg km^-2 a^-1) and total nitrogen loss(average 250 kg km^-2 a^-1) were lower than inagricultural areas. In forested catchments the impact of forestryoperations, such as clear-cutting and fertilization, and theimpact of atmospheric nitrogen deposition can be seen in changesin nutrient losses.     

Using cellular automata for integrated modelling of socio-environmental systems

Cellular automata provide the key to a dynamic modelling and simulation framework that integrates socio-economic with environmental models, and that operates at both micro and macro geographical scales. An application to the problem of forecasting the effect of climate change on a small island state suggests that such modelling techniques could help planners and policy makers design more effective policies — policies better tuned both to specific local needs and to overall socio-economic and environmental constraints.Paper presented at the Workshop on GIS Applications in Coastal Zone Management Of Small Island States, Barbados, April 20–22, 1994. RIKS publication 905000/94100, April 1994.     

Variability in Voc Concentrations in an Urban Area of Delhi

The variability of pollutants is an important factor in determining human exposure to the chemicals. This study presents the result of investigation of variability of Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in urban area of Delhi, capital of India. Fifteen locations, in five categories namely residential, commercial, industrial, traffic intersections and petrol pump were monitored for one year every month during peak hours in morning and evening. Measurement focused on target VOCs as defined by USEPA. Variability was divided into measurement, spatial, temporal and temporal–spatial interaction components. Temporal component along with temporal–spatial interaction were found to be the major contributors to the variability of measured VOC concentrations. Need of continuous monitoring to capture short–term peak concentration and averages is evident.     

Calculating losses of crops in Denmark caused by high ozone levels

In order to help guide air pollution legislation at the European level, harmful air pollution effects on agriculture crops and the consequent economic implications for policy have been studied for more than a decade. Ozone has been labeled as the most serious of the damaging air pollutants to agriculture, where growth rates and consequently yields are dramatically reduced. Quantifying the effects has formed a key factor in policymaking. Based on the widely held view that AOT40 (Accumulated exposure Over Threshold of 40 ppb) is a good indicator of ozone-induced damage, the Danish Eulerian Model (DEM) was used to compute reduced agriculture yields on a 50 km×50 km grid over Europe. In one set of scenarios, a ten year meteorological time series was combined with realistic emission inventories. In another, various idealized emission reduction scenarios are applied to the same meteorological time series. The results show substantial inter-annual variability in economic losses, due in most part to meteorological conditions which varied much more substantially than the emissions during the same period. It is further shown that, taking all uncertainties into account, estimates of ozone-induced economic losses require that a long meteorological record is included in the analysis, for statistical significance to be improved to acceptable levels for use in policy analysis. In this study, calculations were made for Europe as a whole, though this paper presents results relevant for Denmark.     

Acid precipitation-related chemical trends in 18 rivers of atlantic Canada — 1983 to 1992

Using non-parametric techniques, we studied water chemistry changes from 1983 to 1992 in 18 rivers located at the extreme northeastern portion of North America. This period was marked by a decrease in sulfate (SO ₄ ^– ) production in eastern Canada from 1982 to 1986, followed by a levelling off from 1986 to 1992. Nitrate (NO ₃ ^– ) production and deposition generally increased over this whole period. We used two time windows, 1983 to 1989 and 1983 to 1992, to determine if changes in river acidification variables occurred over the ten year period. We found significant trends of increasing pH and acid neutralization capacity (ANC) concentrations at eight sites using both time windows, while SO ₄ ^–2 increased at five and seven sites during the same two time periods. Nitrate concentrations showed few consistent trends, while base cations showed increases in the earlier part of the data set and total organic carbon (TOC) showed long-term decreases. There were few significant trends in hydrogen (H⁺), and a slight decrease in SO ₄ ^–2 exports as opposed to increased concentrations over the same period. We attribute the discrepancy between SO ₄ ^–2 concentration and export trends to be due to evapotranspiration in the basins, causing a concentration of ions in water. Nitrate and calcium exports showed no trends, while TOC decreased at four or five sites, depending on the time window used. Longer data sets tended to produce more detectable trends. Overall, water chemistry in the region is showing the effects of reduced SO ₄ ^– loads and is not yet being affected by the increases in NO ₃ ^– deposition.     

Emissions of NO and N2O from soils

Nitric oxide (NO) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) fluxes were measured from agricultural, forest and moorland environments, using chamber techniques. Maximum emissions of NO and N₂O were measured from the agricultural soils shortly after fertiliser application (7 ng NO-N m^–2 s^–1 and 91 ng N₂O-N m^–2 s^–1). For the non-agricultural soils the NO flux ranged from –0.3 to 0.5 ng NO-N m^–2 s^–1 and the N₂O flux ranged from 1 to 2.7 ng N₂O-N m^–2 s^–1. Emissions, however, were increased 2 to 7 fold when N deposition (uplands) and N fixation (alder plantations) contributed to the pool of soil available N. The best predictors of the NO emission were soil NO ₃ ^– and soil temperature, accounting for 60% of the variability observed. The prediction of N₂O was less successful. Only 30% of the variability could be explained by the soil NO ₃ ^– and the soil moisture content, soil temperature did not have a significant effect on the N₂O emission.     

Quality of drinking water in the Aligarh Muslim University Campus,Aligarh, U.P. (India) with respect to heavy metals

The physico-chemical characteristics of the drinking water in nine residential halls of the Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, U.P. (India), were studied. Nine samples each of running and standing water were taken four times over a period of one month at weekly intervals from all of the residential halls and were analysed for physico-chemical characteristics and heavy metal contents. The temperature, pH and electrical conductivity of water samples ranged between 20.0–26.0°C; 7.00–8.00 and 116.00–199.04 micromhos cm^–1 respectively whereas the values of total alkalinity, total hardness, Cl^–, SO ₄ ^– , F^–, NH₃–N, NO₂–N; NO₃–N were found between 261.00–396.00; 128.00–200.00; 8.00–69.00; 12.00–46.00; 0.90–1.35; 0.20–0.44; ND; 1.60–6.50 mg l^–1 respectively. The ranges of heavy metal concentrations in the running water samples were as follows: Cd (0.70–3.75); Cr (ND-5.00); Co (9.50–18.75); Cu (0.75–15.00); Fe (ND-13.50); Mn (3.50–51.00); Ni (7.00–17.50); Pb (0.50–2.50) and Zn (10.00–176.50) g l^–1. The heavy metal concentrations in standing water samples were found to be: Cd (1.20–4.90); Cr (ND-10.00); Co (10.25–19.00); Cu (1.75–20.00); Fe (ND-18.00); Mn (5.00–66.50); Ni (8.75–19.75); Pb (0.75–5.50) and Zn (28.60–364.00) g l^–1. The concentrations of heavy metals in drinking water supplies of the Aligarh Muslim University campus were well below the guidelines for drinking water quality as prescribed by World Health Organisation (1984). It is evident from the results that the drinking water may not cause any significant health hazard to water consumers due to heavy metals but these may be hazardous if they get accumulated in the body due to continuous consumption of water.     

Application of a Dialysis Sampler to Monitor Phytoremediation Processes

A cylindrical dialysis sampler (1.2 m in length; 5 cm in diameter) was designed and constructed to sample small–scale phytoremediation processes in the root zone of poplar trees. The study site was a 183–tree plantation of hybrid poplars located at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, at the J–Field Area of Concern. The grove was planted in 1996 to intercept a chlorinated solvent plume containing 1,1,2,2–tetrachloroethane (1,1,2,2–TeCA, trichloroethene (TCE) and daughter products. Two dialysis samplers were installed: one directly in the poplar grove (approximately 0.3 m from the trunk of a mature tree) and the other outside of the grove but in the plume. Data collected included concentrations of chlorinated VOCs, organic acids, chloroacetic acids, Cl⁻, and dissolved gases (ethane, ethene, CH₄, CO₂). At the control location, the VOC profile was dominated by cis– 1,2–dichloroethene (cis–1,2–DCE) and trans–1,2–dichloroethene (trans–1,2–DCE) with concentrations ranging from 0.88-4.5 to 4.4-17.6 mg/L, respectively. Concentrations of VOCs were similar across the vertical profile. At the tree location, 1,1,2,2–TeCA and TCE were the dominant VOCs detected but as opposed to the control location were highly variable within the root zone, with the greatest variability associated with locations in the sampler where roots were observed. This highly variable profile at the tree location is indicative of VOC rhizosphere biodegradation and uptake near the active roots. This variability appears to be on the centimeter scale, emphasizing the importance of these high–resolution samplers for the study of rhizosphere influences.     

Coal mining and the resource community cycle: A longitudinal assessment of the social impacts of the Coppabella coal mine

Two social impact assessment (SIA) studies of Central Queensland's Coppabella coal mine were undertaken in 2002–2003 and 2006–2007. As ex post studies of actual change, these provide a reference point for predictive assessments of proposed resource extraction projects at other sites, while the longitudinal element added by the second study illustrates how impacts associated with one mine may vary over time due to changing economic and social conditions. It was found that the traditional coupling of local economic vitality and community development to the life cycle of resource projects—the resource community cycle—was mediated by labour recruitment and social infrastructure policies that reduced the emphasis on localised employment and investment strategies, and by the cumulative impacts of multiple mining projects within relative proximity to each other. The resource community cycle was accelerated and local communities forced to consider ways of attracting secondary investment and/or alternative industries early in the operational life of the Coppabella mine in order to secure significant economic benefits and to guard against the erosion of social capital and the ability to cope with future downturns in the mining sector.     

Monitoring of krypton-85 activity in the atmosphere around Prague

The results of measurements of Krypton-85 (⁸⁵Kr) concentrations in the ground-level air of Prague between 1983 and 1992 are presented and time-related changes analysed. The long-term trend in activity level of ⁸⁵Kr has been steadily increasing with a growth rate of 0.04 Bq.m^–3 (STP) per year. Some peaks of ⁸⁵Kr activity were observed due to the influence of undispersed radioactive plumes coming from distant sources. Short-term variations within a typical range of concentrations from 0.61 to 1.25 Bq.m^–3 (STP) were found to be seasonally dependent, with the maximum occurring in spring.     

Behavioural determinants of an individual's intention to adapt to climate change: Both internal and external perspectives

Climate change has had a significant negative impact on socio-economic factors and the earth's ecology. To cope with climate change, many countries have employed various policies and measures to reduce damage due to climate change. For individual residents, adaptation behaviour is vital for reducing individual welfare losses. This research analysed how psychological determinants and other external factors influence residents' intention to adapt to climate change. We proposed an extended protection motivation theory (PMT) model, developed a reliable scale and conducted a nationwide field survey. We interviewed 1402 residents in 29 provinces, and 874 valid questionnaires were collected, providing data that were used in a structural equation model. The results show that our model can serve as a reliable framework for analysing the determinants of residents' intention to adapt to climate change. Policy is the most important factor for stimulating the formation of residents' adaptation intention. Risk appraisals and adaptation appraisals have positive and significant impacts on the intention of residents to adopt climate change adaptation behaviour. Information and climate perception do not directly influence residents' behavioural intentions but indirectly affect their intentions through the process of risk appraisal and adaptation appraisal. Corresponding policy suggestions are made that may be helpful for the formulation of adaptation policies.     

An Assessment on Variation of Sulphur Dioxide and Particulate Matter in Erzurum (Turkey)

Sulphur dioxide and PM₁₀ levels are investigated in Erzurum during the periods of 1990–2000 heating season to assess air pollution level. For that reason, emissions of sulphur dioxide and particulate matter were calculated by using consumption of fuels and Turkish emission factors. These emission values were evaluated together with air pollution levels, which were measured at six stations in Erzurum atmosphere during 1990–2000 winter periods. Results reveal that in 1990–1994 heating period, there is an increasing trend in the emissions and air pollution levels over Erzurum, and the air quality limits were not met. The daily 24 h limit (short-term limit) was exceeded 127 days in 1992–1993 winter period. The reason for this increase was found to be the switching to use of low-quality fossil fuels instead of cleaner ones. Results also indicated that there was a considerable decrease in emissions of air pollutants and air pollution levels after 1995. This can be explained by the consumption of more high-quality fossil fuels. The correlation coefficient of SO₂ with PM₁₀ is obtained as r² = 0.85, which is a high value supporting the idea that both pollutants are emitted from the same source.     

Tree-ring analysis for the assessment of anthropogenic changes and trends

Investigation of Pine (Pinus sylvestris L.)annual radial increment (width of annual tree rings) was carriedout in the surroundings of one of the largest pollution sources inLithuania – Jonava Nitrogen Fertilizers Plant. The main objectiveof investigation was to analyse different sides of anthropogenictransformations of tree-ring series in the polluted environment:changes in tree growth intensity; variance changes in tree-ringseries; changes in the relations with natural external factors.Three different periods of tree reaction to the environmentalpollution were singled out – fertilization period, depressionperiod and recovery period since annual emissions were essentiallyreduced. The variance of tree-ring series has increased severaltimes in the polluted environment. Reaction of trees to the impactof climatic factors (temperature, precipitation) has changedsignificantly in the polluted environment and their sensitivity hasalso increased.     

Rural poverty driven soil degradation under climate change: the sensitivity of the disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome with respect to climate

Starting from the basic assumption of the syndrome concept that essentially all of the present problematic civilization–nature interactions on the global scale can be subdivided into a limited number of typical patterns, the analysis of the response of these patterns (syndromes) to climate change can make a major contribution to climate impact research, surmounting the difficulties of more common sectoral ceteris paribus impact studies with respect to their systemic integration. In this paper we investigate in particular the influence of climate on the regional proneness or disposition towards one of the most important syndromes with respect to famines and malnutrition, the Sahel Syndrome. It describes the closely interlinked natural and socioeconomic aspects of rural poverty driven degradation of soil and vegetation on marginal sites. Two strategies of global climate impact assessment on a spatial 0.5°×0.5° grid were pursued: (a) As a measure for the climate sensitivity of the regional proneness, the absolute value of the gradient of the disposition with respect to the global field of 3} 12 monthy normals of temperature, irradiation and precipitation is calculated. (b) The disposition was evaluated for two different climate forecasts under doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration. For both strategies two new quantitative global models were incorporated in a fuzzy-logic-based algorithm for determining the disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome: a neural-net-based model for plant productivity and a waterbalance model which calculates surface runoff considering vertical and lateral fluxes, both driven by the set of 36 monthly climatological normals and designed to allow very fast global numerical evaluation.Calculation (b) shows that the change in disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome crucially depends on the chosen climate forecast, indicating that the disagreement of climate forecasts is propagated to the impact assessment of the investigated socio-economic pattern. On the other hand the regions with a significant increase in disposition in at least one of the climate scenario-based model runs form a subset of the regions which are indicated by the local climate sensitivity study (a) as highly sensitive – illustrating that the gradient measure applied here provides a resonable way to calculate an upper limit or worst case of negative climate impact. This method is particularly valuable in the case of uncertain climate predictions as, e.g., for the change in precipitation patterns.