碳中和标准体系建设现状、实践及展望

通过对国内外现行和正在研制的碳中和相关标准进行梳理和归纳,结合碳中和实现路径中标准的运用实践,探究我国不同行业、不同领域碳中和标准体系建设现状。指出我国的碳中和标准体系建设存在着顶层设计和统筹机制不完善、政策与标准发展不协调、技术研发与标准结合不紧密等问题,提出了强化统筹规划和顶层设计、构建标准实施和监管体系、加快制定急需技术标准、建设绿色产品认证制度、构建绿色金融标准体系,以及推进国际交流与合作等标准化工作建议。     

双碳目标下工业园区绿色发展路径研究

工业园区是中国工业产业、人才和先进要素集聚发展的核心单元,也是能源消耗和碳排放最集中的地区之一。双碳(碳达峰和碳中和)目标下,各类工业园区将在双碳战略实践中发挥至关重要的作用。分析了工业园区碳排放特征,构建碳排放识别模型,利用系数法、宏观和微观结合的方法核算工业园区碳排放数据;应用Kaya恒等式、改进可拓展的随机性的环境影响评估模型(STIRPAT)、对数平均权重分配模型(LMDI),分析了工业园区碳排放的主要影响因素和低碳发展思路;应用能源环境情景分析模型(LEAP)规划工业园区绿色发展路径,为工业园区碳达峰与碳中和行动提供技术支持。     

新疆准东经济技术开发区二氧化碳排放现状与降碳对策研究

通过分析新疆准东经济技术开发区各行业的二氧化碳排放量及排放特征，研究新疆准东经济技术开发区碳达峰碳中和的实现路径。分析结果显示，准东经济技术开发区最主要的二氧化碳排放源是化石燃料燃烧，其对二氧化碳排放量的贡献比例在95.2%以上。能源活动二氧化碳排放量占总排放量的98.5%以上；工业生产过程排放的二氧化碳较少，占比在1.5%以下。新疆准东经济技术开发区主要二氧化碳排放行业是煤电、电解铝、煤化工、硅基新材料。在此基础上，结合各行业特点，提出发展园区循环经济、制定低碳行业标准和培育低碳产业等详细对策。     

江苏省钢铁产业绿色低碳技术创新发展路径

钢铁产业作为国民经济的重要基础支柱性产业和高碳排放行业，其绿色低碳转型对实现碳达峰、碳中和目标具有十分重要的作用。在梳理国内外钢铁产业绿色低碳技术进展的基础上，阐述了江苏省钢铁产业绿色低碳技术发展的特点及实现“双碳”目标面临的挑战，提出了由能源结构优化、能效提升、钢化联产协同处置和低碳突破性创新等技术综合集成的绿色低碳技术创新体系发展路径。     

泾河流域生态系统碳储量时空演变与预测

运用 InVEST模型和PLUS模型动态模拟泾河流域未来不同发展情景下碳储量变化情况，对当前十年及未来十年土地利用类型变化及其对碳储量的影响进行评估。结果表明：2030年经济发展和生态发展情景下，泾河流域碳储量分别为1.068×109t和1.082×109t，与2020年相比，经济发展情景下碳储量减少9×106t，生态发展情景下碳储量增加5×106t。控制草地、林地、湿地、水域退化和建设用地扩张可以有效提高生态系统碳储量；基于生态发展情景下的土地利用方式更有助于提升泾河流域碳汇能力，实现区域可持续发展。     

合肥市冬季细颗粒物中碳组分特征分析

利用2020年12月1日至2021年2月28日合肥市细颗粒物(PM_2.5)、有机碳(OC)和元素碳(EC)等环境空气质量监测数据和气象观测数据，分析了合肥市大气PM_2.5中OC和EC的污染特征，并探讨了其来源以及气象因素影响。结果表明：合肥市冬季碳质气溶胶是PM_2.5中主要组分，随着污染程度的加重，碳质气溶胶的质量浓度逐步增加，但其在PM_2.5中的占比先减小后增加。在以PM_2.5为首要污染物的不同污染级别天气条件下，OC和EC的相关性说明不同程度下碳质气溶胶来源复杂。OC/EC表明机动车尾气和燃煤源排放是碳质气溶胶的主要来源。二次有机碳(SOC)会随着污染程度的加重而呈现升高趋势。OC和EC在冬季受温度影响较小；较大的相对湿度对OC和EC具有一定的清除作用，明显降水或连续降水的清除作用更加显著；而风速对含碳气溶胶的影响主要出现在污染天气背景下。     

红枫湖水体中碳的时空分布特征分析

基于2013年8月、10月、11月及2014年3月在红枫湖5个表层水样采集点、3个分层水样采集点测定的总碳、无机碳、总有机碳及二氧化碳数据,结合当时的气象数据对碳的时空分布特征讨论分析。结果表明,虽然调查期间同时间相同水层各个水样采集点的上述4个指标差异并不明显,但同一时间不同分层水体及各水样采集点不同季节在碳分布上存在一定差异。温度越高,光照越长,生物活性越强,湖体碳被生物利用的比例越大,总碳、无机碳、总有机碳含量就越低,较强的生物活性也伴随更多的二氧化碳产生。上、下层水体因光与温度差异所导致的碳分布差异会因季节性翻湖而消失。     

我国环境空气中温室气体监测技术研究进展

开展温室气体监测,获取温室气体浓度水平并以此开展相关研究是实现碳达峰、碳中和的重要支撑.简述了世界气象组织、我国气象部门及生态环境部门制定温室气体监测标准情况,分析了非色散红外法、气相色谱法、光腔衰荡光谱法、离轴腔积分系统法等温室气体监测技术方法的测量原理、应用场景及优缺点,以及进样系统与标校系统的研究进展,展望了温室...     

全球及区域碳模拟与源汇同化反演研究进展

近年来，全球和区域碳模拟与同化反演系统(简称“碳同化系统”)快速发展，并被广泛应用于不同时空尺度的碳通量和碳汇估算、碳排放量校核研究中，为支撑全球碳盘点提供了关键技术手段。文章回顾了国内外主要碳同化系统的发展历程和应用案例，总结了当前常见的全球和区域碳同化系统的结构和特点，包括使用的大气传输模式、同化方法、空间分辨率等内容；探讨了当前常见模型系统应用中的关键问题、不足与发展方向，以期为碳同化系统应用于我国环境管理和气候变化工作提供参考。     

连云港市碳排放“双向”分析及碳达峰情景分析与预测

为探究连云港市碳排放特征，实现“碳达峰”“碳中和”的目标，以2011—2020年连云港市的碳排放量数据为核心，采用可拓展的随机性的环境影响评估模型（STIRPAT）以及岭回归方法进行碳排放量数据的“双向”分析。首先，根据连云港市2011—2020年能源消耗数据，“反向”核算出连云港市历年的碳排放量，结果表明，连云港市碳排放量呈现逐年持续上升趋势；其次，选取人口因素、人均地区生产总值、城市化率、能源结构、产业结构为主要因素，构建了STIRPAT模型这一“正向”预测媒介，采用岭回归分析法得到了连云港市的碳排放量拟合模型，结果表明，不同的因素对连云港市碳排放量的影响程度存在差异；最后，通过情景分析法预设6种连云港市未来发展情景模型，对连云港市的碳排放量进行了预测，结果表明，中增长-高减排的发展模式更适合连云港市，将于2030年以4 788.9万t的碳排放量实现达峰。针对这一发展模式要求，提出连云港市应积极调整能源结构比例、加快产业结构优化等相关建议。     

Examining the uncertainty of carbon emission changes: A systematic approach based on peak simulation and resilience assessment

Efforts to achieve carbon peak is one of the Chinese government's commitments, but the diversity of future development paths leads to the uncertainty of carbon emissions. Based on the carbon peak simulation, this study develops a framework to assess the carbon emission uncertainty, aiming to explore the potential low-carbon paths. The STIRPAT model is firstly introduced to explore the influence of population, economic and technology factors on carbon emissions, which is followed by emission peaks simulation. The resilience theory is then introduced to define the concept of low-carbon resilience (LCR), which refers to the ability to maintain a low level of carbon emissions. The uncertainty of carbon emission changes between different scenarios is identified by considering peaking time, cumulative increase and mitigation process. This study taking 10 Chinese coastal provinces as an example, and results show that all provinces can achieve the target of carbon emission peak in low-emissions scenario, the cumulative growth of carbon emissions is low and can be mitigated over a relatively short term, showing a strong LCR. In high-emissions scenario, Liaoning, Tianjin, Fujian and Guangxi may not have a peak before 2050, the uncertainty of carbon emission changes is relatively high, while Hebei, Jiangsu, Shanghai and Guangdong show relatively low uncertainty for the clear peaking time. The study also designs intermediate scenario to reduce the uncertainty of carbon emission changes to provide reference for each province's emission reduction path. These findings help to understand carbon uncertainty to reduce the risk of increasing cumulative emissions under the scenario of only focusing on peaking times, and provide a basis for future carbon resilience and sustainable emission reduction policies.     

Determination of Path Coefficients and Its Application in Road Traffic Noise Annoyance – a Theoretical Approach

This paper elucidates the basic approach of determining the path coefficients and its significance in the road traffic noise annoyance. Path model not only outline the direct effect of the traffic noise on the nearby residents but also indicate the indirect effect via other variables. In this study seven variables were considered for determining road traffic noise annoyance. However the same would be equally applicable for other situations like aircraft noise, rail noise, and industry noise with the different variables. At the outset a priori path model was designed and then on the basis of the partial regression coefficient values for the different paths, the revised path model was developed. The standardized partial regression coefficients known as path coefficients, determine the strength of the linkage among variables. Some of the paths in the model were not statistically significant. Revised path models were developed by deleting the insignificant paths whose values were found above 5% level. In the revised path model, thus the direct and indirect effect due to a particular variable causing the road traffic noise annoyance could be observed.     

Total organic carbon analysis as a precursor to disinfection byproducts in potable water: oxidation technique considerations

In recent years, an increasing number of regulations and methodologies have begun to utilize total organic carbon (TOC) analysis for monitoring microbial contamination and/or disinfectant byproduct (DBP) precursors. This paper highlights some analytical differences and similarities between the two widely used TOC oxidation techniques: UV persulfate and high temperature combustion (HTC). Previous papers have come to different and sometimes contradictory conclusions on this subject. However, these studies either compared instruments with significantly different flow paths or TOC systems from different eras. Unlike previous studies, this paper compares two modern TOC analyzers with nearly identical flow paths for sample recovery, detection limits, and analysis of real world samples. On average, both persulfate and HTC oxidation yielded good recoveries for 10 hard to oxidize compounds and potable water samples from 5 different locations across the USA. In general, persulfate yielded more precise results because of its lower background response relative to sample response while HTC gave slightly higher results (roughly 2% to 3%) for surface water samples.     

国际温室气体监测量值传递与质量控制经验及启示

建立温室气体监测量值传递与质量控制体系，对于保障温室气体监测数据的准确性、可比性和计量溯源性具有重要意义。世界气象组织于1989年组建了全球大气观测网络，欧洲、美国也分别建立了区域、城市温室气体监测系统。相比之下，我国温室气体监测起步较晚。因此，亟需建立我国独立自主的温室气体监测量值传递与质量控制体系，为准确核验温室气体排放量，实现“双碳”目标，提供可靠的数据支撑。通过总结国际温室气体监测量值溯源与传递体系、质量管理与质量控制体系等的先进经验，对我国温室气体监测提出以下建议：设立满足排放量准确评估要求的数据质量目标；研制独立自主、国际等效的高准确度基准标气；加快构建量值传递与质量控制体系，并建立健全相关技术标准规范；探索研究其他温室气体监测量值溯源与传递方法。     

Hare or Tortoise? Trade-offs in Recovering Sustainable Bioeconomic Systems

In this paper, we develop a framework for (a) the study of sustainability of dynamic bioeconomic systems and (b) the definition of recovery paths from unsustainable situations. We assume that the system follows a sustainable trajectory if it evolves over time within a set of multidimensional constraints. We use the mathematical concept of viability to characterize sustainability. Recovery paths are studied with regards to their duration and their acceptability. This general framework is applied to the issue of recovering sustainable fisheries. We define sustainability in a fishery as the requirement that a set of economic, ecological, and social constraints is satisfied at all times. Recovery paths are characterized by the time required to obtain sustainable exploitation conditions in the fishery and by the acceptable recovery costs for fishermen. In particular, we identify the recovery path which minimizes the time of crisis under a minimum transition profit constraint. We then describe the trade-off between speed and accepted costs of recovery paths, by comparing “Hare”-like high-speed–high-cost strategies to “Tortoise”-like low-speed–low-cost strategies. We illustrate our results by means of a numerical analysis of the Bay of Biscay Nephrops fishery.     

Effects of wetland recovery on soil labile carbon and nitrogen in the Sanjiang Plain

Soil management significantly affects the soil labile organic factors. Understanding carbon and nitrogen dynamics is extremely helpful in conducting research on active carbon and nitrogen components for different kinds of soil management. In this paper, we examined the changes in microbial biomass carbon (MBC), microbial biomass nitrogen (MBN), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) to assess the effect and mechanisms of land types, organic input, soil respiration, microbial species, and vegetation recovery under Deyeuxia angustifolia freshwater marshes (DAMs) and recovered freshwater marsh (RFM) in the Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China. Identifying the relationship among the dynamics of labile carbon, nitrogen, and soil qualification mechanism using different land management practices is therefore important. Cultivation and land use affect intensely the DOC, DON, MBC, and MBN in the soil. After DAM soil tillage, the DOC, DON, MBC, and MBN at the surface of the agricultural soil layer declined significantly. In contrast, their recovery was significant in the RFM surface soil. A long time was needed for the concentration of cultivated soil total organic carbon and total nitrogen to be restored to the wetland level. The labile carbon and nitrogen fractions can reach a level similar to that of the wetland within a short time. Typical wetland ecosystem signs, such as vegetation, microbes, and animals, can be recovered by soil labile carbon and nitrogen fraction restoration. In this paper, the D. angustifolia biomass attained natural wetland level after 8 years, indicating that wetland soil labile fractions can support wetland eco-function in a short period of time (4 to 8 years) for reconstructed wetland under suitable environmental conditions.     

An indoor test campaign of the tomography long path differential optical absorption spectroscopy technique

In this study we validate the two-dimensional long path DOAS tomography measurement technique by means of an indoor experiment with well-known concentration distributions. The experiment was conducted over an area of 10 m x 15 m using one and two cylindrical polycarbonate containers of diameter 2 m, respectively, filled with NO2. The setup was realized with three of the multibeam instruments recently developed by Pundt and Mettendorf (Appl. Opt., 2005, in press), which allow the simultaneous measurement along at least four light paths each. The configuration consisted of twelve simultaneous light beams, 39 horizontal light paths in total, and 18 different cylinder positions inside the field. It was found that for the discretization and inversion technique shown here reconstructions of the concentration distributions from experimental data agree well with simulated reconstructions. In order to draw conclusions for atmospheric applications, numerical studies including instrumental errors were carried out. It was found that with the presented measurement setup it is possible to measure and reconstruct one or two NO2 plumes of 600 m diameter and average concentrations above 4.2 ppbv each, on a scale of 13.5 km2. Theoretical investigations show that it should be possible to localize and quantify 600 m diameter plumes of SO2 > 1.5 ppbv, H2CO > 6.3 ppbv, HONO > 3.2 ppbv, and ozone > 46.2 ppbv. Larger plumes can be measured with higher precision.     

Forest Conservation and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Emissions: A Viable Approach

We adopt viability theory to assess the sustainability of the world’s forests while taking into account some of the competing economic, social, and environmental uses of these forests, namely, timber production, poverty alleviation through agriculture, and air quality as well as the negative externalities that these uses create. We provide insights on the different trade-offs faced to achieve sustainability and draw some policy implications as to what is the path leading to sustainability in the long run.