Land surface temperature estimating in urbanized landscapes using artificial neural networks

Scenario-based land surface temperature (LST) modeling is a powerful tool for adopting proper urban land use planning policies. In this study, using greater Isfahan as a case study, the artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm was utilized to explore the non-linear relationships between urban LST and green cover spatial patterns derived from Landsat 8 OLI imagery. The model was calibrated using two sets of variables: Normalized Difference Built Index (NDBI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Furthermore, Compact Development Scenario (CDS) and Green Development Scenario (GDS) were defined. The results showed that GDS is more successful in mitigating urban LST (mean LST?=?40.93) compared to CDS (mean LST?=?44.88). In addition, urban LST retrieved from the CDS was more accurate in terms of ANOVA significance (sig?=?0.043) than the GDS (sig?=?0.010). The findings of this study suggest that developing green spaces is a key strategy to combat against the risk of LST concerns in urban areas.     

Examining Relationships Between Socioeconomic Factors and Landscape Metrics in the Southern Basin of the Caspian Sea

Socioeconomic forces are not only among the main drivers of landscape dynamics; they are also influenced by landscape patterns. Landscape structure and functions are closely related to natural and social factors. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationships among some human-related factors and landscape ecological metrics as landscape pattern indicators and to identify suitable metrics for modeling these relationships. To this goal, landscape ecological metrics were calculated for each of the 32 counties of Mazandaran and Guilan provinces located in the southern basin of the Caspian Sea using land use/cover maps in class level. Stream network metrics were calculated using a digital elevation model, road density metrics were calculated using map of main roads separately, and significant metrics were selected according to results of correlation tests and factor analysis. The correlations between these metrics and socioeconomic factors were tested, and their relationships were modeled with multiple linear regressions. Significant relationships were found among socioeconomic factors and landscape ecological metrics, and land use/cover data are applicable for modeling socioeconomic factors, especially demographic and employment structure factors. Among the landscape metrics applied in this study, road density, mean patch size, mean nearest neighbor distance, and percentage of a land use/cover class in landscape were important metrics for predicting socioeconomic factors. Our findings indicated that road density metric and percentages of urban class are useful for predicting urban socioeconomic factors and percentage of agriculture and forest classes in the landscape are suitable metrics for predicting rural socioeconomic factors.     

Multi-scale landscape factors influencing stream water quality in the state of Oregon

Enterococci bacteria are used to indicate the presence of human and/or animal fecal materials in surface water. In addition to human influences on the quality of surface water, a cattle grazing is a widespread and persistent ecological stressor in the Western United States. Cattle may affect surface water quality directly by depositing nutrients and bacteria, and indirectly by damaging stream banks or removing vegetation cover, which may lead to increased sediment loads. This study used the State of Oregon surface water data to determine the likelihood of animal pathogen presence using enterococci and analyzed the spatial distribution and relationship of biotic (enterococci) and abiotic (nitrogen and phosphorous) surface water constituents to landscape metrics and others (e.g. human use, percent riparian cover, natural covers, grazing, etc.). We used a grazing potential index (GPI) based on proximity to water, land ownership and forage availability. Mean and variability of GPI, forage availability, stream density and length, and landscape metrics were related to enterococci and many forms of nitrogen and phosphorous in standard and logistic regression models. The GPI did not have a significant role in the models, but forage related variables had significant contribution. Urban land use within stream reach was the main driving factor when exceeding the threshold (> or =35 cfu/100 ml), agriculture was the driving force in elevating enterococci in sites where enterococci concentration was <35 cfu/100 ml. Landscape metrics related to amount of agriculture, wetlands and urban all contributed to increasing nutrients in surface water but at different scales. The probability of having sites with concentrations of enterococci above the threshold was much lower in areas of natural land cover and much higher in areas with higher urban land use within 60 m of stream. A 1% increase in natural land cover was associated with a 12% decrease in the predicted odds of having a site exceeding the threshold. Opposite to natural land cover, a one unit change in each of manmade barren and urban land use led to an increase of the likelihood of exceeding the threshold by 73%, and 11%, respectively. Change in urban land use had a higher influence on the likelihood of a site exceeding the threshold than that of natural land cover.     

Spatiotemporal changes of landscape pattern in response to deforestation in Northeastern Turkey: a case study in Rize

Recognition and understanding of landscape dynamics as a historical legacy of disturbances are necessary for sustainable management of forest ecosystems. This study analyzes spatial and temporal changes in land use and forest cover patterns in a typical mountain forest area in Rize Forest Enterprise of the Northeastern part of Turkey. The area is investigated by evaluated the temporal changes of spatial structure of forest conditions through spatial analysis of forest cover type maps from 1984 and 2007 using GIS and FRAGSTATS. The quantative evidences presented here showed that there were drastic changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of land use/forest cover. As an overall change between 1984 and 2007, there was a net decrease of 2.30% in total forested areas. On one hand, productive forest areas decreased 12,506 ha, on the other hand, degraded forest areas increased 14,805 ha. In examining the changes of crown closure and development stages of forest ecosystem during the study period, the forest stand area with medium crown closures increased. Regenerated area increased while the other development stages were left to grow to mature development stages in the period. These results regarding to crown closure and development stage showed that forest quality has increased but total forest areas decreased. This is partially due to out-migration of rural population in Rize and Cayeli towns. In terms of spatial configuration, analysis of the metrics revealed that landscape structure in Study area had changed substantially over the 23-year study period, resulting in fragmentation of the landscape as indicated by the large patch numbers and the smaller mean patch sizes due to heavy timber subtraction, illegal cutting, and uncontrolled stand treatments.     

An examination of the effect of landscape pattern, land surface temperature, and socioeconomic conditions on WNV dissemination in Chicago

This paper developed an approach by the synthesis of remote sensing, landscape metrics, and statistical methods to examine the effects of landscape pattern, land surface temperature, and socioeconomic conditions on the spread of West Nile virus (WNV) caused by mosquitoes and animal hosts in Chicago, USA. Land use/land cover and land surface temperature images were derived from Terra’s Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer imagery. An analytical procedure using landscape metrics was developed, applying configuration analysis of landscape patterns in the study area. The positive reports of mosquitoes and animal hosts for WNV in fall, 2001–2006, were collected from the Cook County Public Health Department. Forty-nine municipalities were found to have WNV-positive records in mosquitoes and animal hosts in fall 2004. Socioeconomic data were obtained from the 2000 US Census. Statistical analysis was applied to WNV data in fall 2004 to identify the relationship between potential predictors and WNV spread. As a result, landscape factors, such as landscape aggregation index and the urban areas and areas of grass and water, showed strong correlations with the WNV-positive records. Socioeconomic conditions, such as the population over 65 years old, also showed a strong correlation with WNV-positive records. Thermal conditions of water showed a less but still considerable correlation to WNV-positive records. This research offers an opportunity to explore the effects of landscape pattern, land surface temperature, and socioeconomic conditions on the spread of WNV caused by mosquitoes and animal hosts. Results can contribute to public health and environmental management in the study area.     

Evaluation of urban sprawl and urban landscape pattern in a rapidly developing region

Urban sprawl is a worldwide phenomenon happening particularly in rapidly developing regions. A study on the spatiotemporal characteristics of urban sprawl and urban pattern is useful for the sustainable management of land management and urban land planning. The present research explores the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban sprawl in the context of a rapid urbanization process in a booming economic region of southern China from 1979 to 2005. Three urban sprawl types are distinguished by analyzing overlaid urban area maps of two adjacent study years which originated from the interpretation of remote sensed images and vector land use maps. Landscape metrics are used to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of urban sprawl for each study period. Study results show that urban areas have expanded dramatically, and the spatiotemporal landscape pattern configured by the three sprawl types changed obviously. The different sprawl type patterns in five study periods have transformed significantly, with their proportions altered both in terms of quantity and of location. The present research proves that urban sprawl quantification and pattern analysis can provide a clear perspective of the urbanization process during a long time period. Particularly, the present study on urban sprawl and sprawl patterns can be used by land use and urban planners.     

Urban Air Pollution Patterns, Land Use, and Thermal Landscape: An Examination of the Linkage Using GIS

This article investigates the relationship of local air pollution pattern with urban land use and with urban thermal landscape using a GIS approach. Ambient air quality measurements for sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, carbon monoxide, total suspended particles, and dust level were obtained for Guangzhou City in South China between 1981 and 2000. Landsat TM images and aerial photo derived maps were used to examine city's land use and land cover at different times and changes. Landsat thermal infrared data were employed to compute land surface temperatures and to assess urban thermal patterns. Relationships among the spatial patterns of air pollution, land use, and thermal landscape were sought through GIS and correlation analyses. Results show that the spatial patterns of air pollutants probed were positively correlated with urban built-up density, and with satellite derived land surface temperature values, particularly with measurements taken during the summer. It is suggested that further studies investigate the mechanisms of this linkage, and that remote sensing of air pollution delves into how the energy interacts with the atmosphere and the environment and how sensors see pollutants. Thermal infrared imagery could play a unique role in monitoring and modeling atmospheric pollution.     

The spatiotemporal dynamics of urbanisation and local climate: A case study of Islamabad,Pakistan

Rapid and unplanned urbanisation, together with climate change, are increasingly affecting the local climatic conditions of urban settlements. Spatiotemporal analysis using land use/land cover (LULC), land surface temperature (LST), and local climatic zone (LCZ) assessments have been helpful in understanding the urbanisation characteristics and morphology. Islamabad, the capital and the only planned city of Pakistan, has witnessed a consistent rise in local temperatures, increased built-up areas, and reduced vegetation cover during the past decades. This study explores the spatiotemporal dynamics of LULC, LST, and LCZ in Islamabad using satellite remote sensing data and spectral indices such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI). The results indicate a whopping increase in a built-up area in the city (113% during 2013 and 2019). A positive correlation between LST and NDBI, whereas a negative correlation between LST and NDVI clearly indicates how urbanisation (and reduction in vegetation cover) are impacting the local temperatures. Assessment and analysis of LCZs helped to understand the variations and deviations of current LULC from the master plan. It was observed that compact low-rise urban development is the most prevalent. The outcomes of this study are expected to inform the urban planners, climatologists, and policymakers with the knowledge helpful for devising climate-resilient development policies that could reduce thermal stresses in the capital cities.     

Spatial and temporal dynamics of land use pattern in Eastern Turkey: a case study in Gümüşhane

Recognition and understanding of landscape dynamics as a historical legacy of disturbances are necessary for sustainable management of forest ecosystems. This study analyzed spatial and temporal changes in land use and land cover patterns in a typical mountain watershed in the Gumushane district along the Northeastern part of Turkey. The area is investigated by comparing LANDSAT images from 1987 to 2000 and evaluated the temporal changes of spatial structure of forest conditions through spatial analysis of forest cover type maps from 1971 and 1987 using GIS and FRAGSTATS™. The results show a general decreasing trend in area of natural land cover types including broadleaf and conifer forests as well as coppice between 1971 and 1987 (0.54%, respectively). In contrast, between 1987 and 2000 this natural land cover types show increasing trend (1.6%). In parallel with forest dynamics, the area of managed land including lowland and upland agricultural areas, rangelands and grasslands increased during the first period and decreased during second period. In terms of spatial configuration, Gümüşhane forests aren’t generally fragmented by intensive forest utilization in the latter periods. This is partially due to out-migration of rural population in Gümüşhane. Nevertheless, land use pattern significantly changed over time depending on a few factors such as unregulated management actions, social pressure and demographic movements. The study revealed that demographic movements have a major effect on landscape dynamics.     

基于遥感和Markov模型的新疆生产建设兵团土地利用变化

通过对兵团土地利用空间格局变化分析,选择合适的土地利用政策保护生态环境。运用RS和GIS技术对兵团近10年土地利用/覆被变化及景观格局空间变化进行分析,并在此基础上运用Markov模型对未来30年土地利用变化进行预测。2000—2010年,新疆生产建设兵团景观多样性升高,连通性增强,形状愈来愈简单,景观格局整体变化不大;草地、灌丛、湿地、荒漠和冰川/永久积雪面积减少,耕地和城镇面积增加,森林保持稳定;人为干扰对土地利用结构的变化具有重要作用,土地利用强度受人为活动影响的同时受土地利用政策影响;在未来30年间耕地和城镇面积继续增加,除森林基本保持不变外其他土地利用类型均减小。兵团城镇用地与草地和耕地之间的矛盾逐渐显现,势必引起兵团生态格局的变化。因此,必须实行合适的土地利用政策保护环境。     

Land use patterns and urbanization in the holy city of Varanasi, India: a scenario

Rapid urbanization and increasing land use changes due to population and economic growth in selected landscapes is being witnessed of late in India and other developing countries. The cities are expanding in all directions resulting in large-scale urban sprawl and changes in urban land use. The spatial pattern of such changes is clearly noticed on the urban fringes or city peripheral rural areas than in the city center. In fact, this is reflected in changing urban land use patterns. There is an urgent need to accurately describe land use changes for planning and sustainable management. In the recent times, remote sensing is gaining importance as vital tool in the analysis and integration of spatial data. This study intends to estimate land use pattern in a planned and unplanned urban setup and also to analyze the impact of change in land use pattern in the Varanasi urban environment. The results indicate that the planned urban setup had a higher tree cover to that of unplanned area in the Varanasi City, although a considerable disparity existed within the planned urban setups. The results emphasize the need to critically review concepts of urban planning and give more consideration to the preservation and management of urban tree cover/greenspace.     

Spatio-temporal footprints of urbanisation in Surat, the Diamond City of India (1990–2009)

Urbanisation is a ubiquitous phenomenon with greater prominence in developing nations. Urban expansion involves land conversions from vegetated moisture-rich to impervious moisture-deficient land surfaces. The urban land transformations alter biophysical parameters in a mode that promotes development of heat islands and degrades environmental health. This study elaborates relationships among various environmental variables using remote sensing dataset to study spatio-temporal footprint of urbanisation in Surat city. Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite data were used in conjugation with geo-spatial techniques to study urbanisation and correlation among various satellite-derived biophysical parameters, [Normalised Difference Vegetation Index, Normalised Difference Built-up Index, Normalised Difference Water Index, Normalised Difference Bareness Index, Modified NDWI and land surface temperature (LST)]. Land use land cover was prepared using hierarchical decision tree classification with an accuracy of 90.4 % (kappa?=?0.88) for 1990 and 85 % (kappa?=?0.81) for 2009. It was found that the city has expanded over 42.75 km² within a decade, and these changes resulted in elevated surface temperatures. For example, transformation from vegetation to built-up has resulted in 5.5?±?2.6 °C increase in land surface temperature, vegetation to fallow 6.7?±?3 °C, fallow to built-up is 3.5?±?2.9 °C and built-up to dense built-up is 5.3?±?2.8 °C. Directional profiling for LST was done to study spatial patterns of LST in and around Surat city. Emergence of two new LST peaks for 2009 was observed in N–S and NE–SW profiles.     

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Evaluation for sustainable land use in mountain areas of Northwestern Yunnan Province, China

As an important component of sustainable development in mountain areas, evaluation for sustainable land use is always one of the hotpots of researches on sustainable development. Traditional evaluation for sustainable land use mainly focuses on the sustainability of land use model and biological production on temporal scale, and overlooks the effects of land use patterns on the sustainability, while landscape ecology can be a good help to realize the spatial analysis of sustainable land use. In this study, a synthetic evaluation indexes system for sustainable land use was constructed through the application of landscape metrics. Taking Yongsheng County of Yunnan Province, China as a case study, a series of quantitative evaluation were conducted in 1996, 1999 and 2001, to monitor the temporal dynamics of regional land use sustainability. Two indicators, contributing amount of indexes, and obstacle amount of indexes, were also set up to ascertain the significance of all the evaluation indexes to the evaluation results. The results showed that, in the study phases, the land use sustainability of the whole county had been low with a stable but great spatial difference, and great changes took place in regional land use system in 1999 with the deviation from the aim of sustainable land use. It also showed that, the most important indexes contributing for the land use sustainability in the study period, were the indexes of population density and land use degree, followed by the index of landscape diversity and cropping index. And the most important indexes counteracting the land use sustainability were the indexes of per unit area total production value of industry and agriculture, per unit area yield of cereal crops, landscape fragmentation, followed by the indexes of per unit area yield of economic crops and fertilizer consume per unit area.     

Quantifying landscape pattern and connectivity in a Mediterranean coastal settlement: the case of the Urla district,Turkey

This study was aimed at analyzing and interpreting changes in landscape pattern and connectivity in the Urla district, Turkey using core landscape metrics based on a 42-year data derived from 1963 CORONA and 2005 ASTER satellite images and ten 1/25,000 topographical maps (1963–2005). The district represents a distinctive example of re-emerged suburbanization in the Izmir metropolitan area. In order to explore landscape characteristics of the study area, nine landscape composition and configuration metrics were chosen as follows: class area, percentage of landscape, number of patches, patch density, largest patch index, landscape shape index, mean patch size, perimeter area fractal dimension, and connectance index. The landscape configurations in the Urla district changed significantly by 2005 in that the process of (sub-)urbanization in the study area evolved from a rural, monocentric urban typology to a more suburban, polycentric morphology. Agricultural, maquis-phrygana, and forest areas decreased, while the built-up, olive plantation and phrygana areas increased. There was nearly a fivefold increase in the built-up areas during the study period, and the connectivity of the natural landscape declined. To prevent further fragmentation, it is important to keep the existing natural land cover types and agricultural areas intact. More importantly, a sustainable development scenario is required that contains a green infrastructure, or an ecological network planning for conservation and rehabilitation of the vital natural resources in the study area.     

Trends in land use and land cover change in the protected and communal areas of the Zambezi Region,Namibia

Land management decisions have extensively modified land use and land cover in the Zambezi Region. These decisions are influenced by land tenure classifications, legislation, and livelihoods. Land use and land cover change is an important indicator for quantifying the effectiveness of different land management strategies. However, there has been no evidence on whether protected or communal land tenure is more affected by land use and land cover changes in southern Africa and particularly Namibia. Our study attempted to fill this gap by analyzing the relationship between land use and land cover change and land tenure regimes stratified according to protected and communal area in the Zambezi Region. Multi-temporal Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery were used to determine the temporal dynamics of land use and land cover change from 1984 to 2010. The landscape showed distinctive modifications over the study period; broad trends include the increase in forest land after 1991. However, changes were not uniform across the study areas. Two landscape development stages were deduced: (1) 1984–1991 represented high deforestation and gradual increase in shrub land; (2) 1991–2000 and 2000–2010 represented lower deforestation and slower agropastoral expansion. The results further show clear patterns of the dynamics, magnitude, and direction of land use and land cover change by tenure regime. The study concluded that land tenure has a direct impact on land use and land cover, since it may restrict some activities carried out on the land in the Zambezi Region.     

Landscape approach for quantifying land use land cover change (1972–2006) and habitat diversity in a mining area in Central India (Bokaro, Jharkhand)

The rate and intensity of land use land cover (LULC) change has increased considerably during the past couple of decades. Mining brings significant alterations in LULC specifically due to its impact on forests. Parts of Central India are well endowed with both forests and minerals. Here, the conflict between human interests and nature has intensified over time. Monitoring and assessment of such conflicts are important for land management and policy making. Remote sensing and Geographical Information System have the potential to serve as accurate tools for environmental monitoring. Understanding the importance of landscape metrics in land use planning is challenging but important. These metrics calculated at landscape, class, and patch level provide an insight into changing spatiotemporal distribution of LULC and ecological connectedness. In the present study, geospatial tools in conjunction with landscape metrics have been used to assess the impact of coal mining on habitat diversity. LULC maps, change detection analysis, and landscape metrics have been computed for the four time periods (1972, 1992, 2001, and 2006). There has been a significant decline in forest cover especially of the Sal-mixed forests, both in area as well as quality, due to flouted mining regulations. Reclamation of mined lands has also been observed in some of the areas since 2001.     

Assessment of land cover changes & water quality changes in the Zayandehroud River Basin between 1997–2008

Water quality of rivers is strongly influenced by landscape characteristics of their watershed, including land use /cover types, and their spatial configuration. This research evaluates the effects of land cover changes on the water quality of the Zayandehroud River, which is the most important river in the center of Iran. The main goal of this study was to quantify the change in rangelands, forests, and bare lands in the Zayandehroud river basin, which suffered intense human interference, in a period of 11 years (1997–2008), and to evaluate how landscape patterns (including the number of patches, edge density, percentage of rangelands, forests, and bare lands) influence on the 14 water quality indices (including BOD5, EC, NO3, P, and TDS) measured in 10 stations along the river. Results showed that from 1997 to 2008, bare lands increased from 5.8 to 20 %, while rangelands decreased from 70 to 55 % in the whole basin. The results indicated that water quality was significantly correlated with both the proportions and configuration of rangeland and bare land areas. The total edge (TE) of rangeland area had positive effects on water quality, especially on BOD5 and EC. Percentage of landscape (PLAND) and largest patch index (LPI) metrics of rangeland had positive effect on decreasing nutrient (NO₃, PO₄). The results showed that water quality was more likely degraded when there was high edge density (ED) of bare lands. Results of this study also revealed that degradation of rangeland lead to the degradation of water quality. Finding of this study highlights the importance of rangeland conservation in water quality management at landscape scale.     

Monitoring the urban green spaces and landscape fragmentation using remote sensing: a case study in Osmaniye,Turkey

Urban green spaces play a significant role in management of physical activity, psychological well-being, and public health of urban residents. With the expansion of urban areas in Turkey during the past decades, urban green spaces have been fragmented and dispersed causing impairment and environmental degradation. The purpose of this study is to model urban green space distribution by focusing on the landscape fragmentation in city of Osmaniye using remote sensing and geographic information system technology. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and urban landscape ratio (ULR) were used to assess the proximity and spatial arrangement of urban green spaces within the neighbor landscapes to quantify the urban land use effect. The geospatial analysis results showed that increase in total built-up area and population has significantly decreased the urban green space cover because of high levels of landscape fragmentation in urban city center. Also, due to high levels of landscape fragmentation, approximately 45% of the Osmaniye city is estimated to become urbanized by 2030. This study demonstrated the benefits of directional vegetation index application with geospatial analyses in characterizing the environmental quality for planning and management of urban green spaces. This approach could be used for determining the future urban land development scenarios correlating with regional planning procedures.     

Land-cover changes in an urban lake watershed in a mega-city, Central China

Urbanization can exert a profound influence on land covers and landscape characteristics. In this study, we characterize the impact of urbanization on land cover and lacustrine landscape and their consequences in a large urban lake watershed, Donghu Lake watershed (the largest urban lake in China), Central China, by using Landsat TM satellite images of three periods of 1987, 1993 and 1999 and ground-based information. We grouped the land covers into six categories: water body, vegetable land, forested land, shrub-grass land, open area and urban land, and calculated patch-related landscape indices to analyze the effects of urbanization on landscape features. We overlaid the land cover maps of the three periods to track the land cover change processes. The results indicated that urban land continuously expanded from 9.1% of the total watershed area in 1987, to 19.4% in 1993, and to 29.6% in 1999. The vegetable land increased from 7.0% in 1987, 11.9% in 1993, to 13.9% in 1999 to sustain the demands of vegetable for increased urban population. Concurrently, continuous reduction of other land cover types occurred between 1987 and 1999: water body decreased from 30.4% to 23.8%, and forested land from 33.6% to 24.3%. We found that the expansion of urban land has at least in part caused a decrease in relatively wild habitats, such as urban forest and lake water area. These alterations had resulted in significant negative environmental consequences, including decline of lakes, deterioration of water and air quality, and loss of biodiversity.     

Tailoring a non-path-dependent model for environmental risk management and polycentric urban land-use planning

This study attempts to develop a non-path-dependent model for environmental risk management and polycentric urban land-use planning in Gorgan Township area, Iran. Applying three suitability layers of environmental risk (soil erosion, flood risk, fire risk, and land susceptibility), urbanization potential, and integrated surface (environmental risk plus urbanization potential layers), a non-path-dependent Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (CA-MC) model was configured to execute three scenarios of polycentric urban growth allocation. Specifically, the modeling approach improved the traditional functionality of the CA-MC model from a prediction algorithm into an innovative land allocation tool. Besides, due to its flexibility, the non-path-dependent model was able to explicitly include different characteristics of the landscape structure ranging from physical land attributes to landscape functions and processes (natural hazards). Accordingly, three polycentric urban growth allocation efforts were undertaken and compared in terms of connectivity and compactness of the resultant patterns and consumption of other land resources. Based on results, the polycentric allocation procedure based on integrated suitability layer produced a more manageable pattern of urban landscape, while the growth option based on environmental risk layer was more successful for protecting farmlands against excessive urbanization. This study suggests that polycentric urban land-use planning under the strategy of rural land development programs is an available option for designing an urban landscape with lower exposure to natural hazards and more economic benefits to rural residents. Finally, the non-path-dependent modeling is a recommended approach, when highly flexible and interactive decision-support systems as well as trend-breaking scenarios are desired.