A model of the air traffic controller's picture

This paper reviews the development of a model of the air traffic controller's mental image, ‘picture’, or situation awareness, used for controlling air traffic. The computerised model's development, origins and theoretical basis are outlined, and the model is described in some detail in the context of current air traffic operations. The model can be utilised to explore the potential impacts of future automation on the cognitive performance of the air traffic controller. The general potential contributions of the area of cognitive modelling to system design and training in accelerating industries such as air traffic control, are also discussed.     

Don't wait for accidents — possibilities to assess risk in traffic by applying the ‘Wiener Fahrprobe’

In Vienna during more than 10 years of research work a special traffic behaviour observation method has been developed, evaluated and applied by Risser et al. in the frame of many different traffic safety projects. Car drivers are accompanied by two observers who register not only errors in behaviour of drivers but also their communication and interaction with other road users. Malfunction of communication and interaction are judged as main sources for problems for danger in traffic. For example, if they lead to a bad traffic climate fealings of discomfort, anger and frustration will prevent cooperative actions of road users. Being able to recognize such negative or dangerous interaction patterns in time it seems to be easier to protect road users — most often the ‘unprotected’ ones — from getting involved in accidents. This contribution gives an impression about theory and practice of the observation method and shows results of different studies, where the method called ‘Wiener Fahrprobe’ has been applied. Furthermore it will show how the method and its results can be used in the frame of the European traffic (safety) research projects ‘PROMETHEUS’ and ‘DRIVE’. Till now no accident data exist in respect to new RTI systems. Therefore it seems to be important to have a sophisticated social-psychological method for testing the behaviour and interaction of road users in connection with these systems. This is a necessary prediction for deciding whether the systems are socially compatible or not.     

The role of the controller in the accelerating industry of air traffic management

This paper considers the role of the controller in future Air Traffic Management (ATM), an industry which is undergoing considerable and rapid change at this time. In particular, the paper focuses on the area of allocation of function, i.e. the determination of what the (human) controller should do, what the hardware and software (machine) should do, and what tasks they should share, and who (or what) is in control, in this increasingly complex system. The premise of the paper is that traditional criteria for allocation of function, so-called Fitts List approaches, are no longer clear-cut to apply, if they ever were. Technology is reaching the point where many traditionally human functions and roles can be supported or even completely autonomously carried out by automated systems. The question is quite simple — what functions, roles, and even responsibilities should be automated? This question is becoming an imperative in currently accelerating technologies such as ATM. As an example, aviation saw a huge insurgence of automation into the cockpit, with four generations of so-called glass cockpit designs, culminating in aircraft which are completely fly-by-wire, and where some aircraft have envelope protection such that the pilot's control actions are monitored and may be overridden by the machine. However, this transition from largely manual flight to glass-cockpit control was not without problems and automation-assisted accidents, and the air traffic industry would do well to avoid such problems. ATM is an area that has been relatively non-automated for the past 30 years. But as traffic levels continue to rise rapidly, there is general agreement that ATM systems must adopt some level(s) of automation support in order to maintain safety and efficiency of air traffic operations. However, ATM development is currently also highly technology-driven, perhaps with most emphasis on what technology can do for us, rather than what we need it to do. From a human factors perspective, the question of what we need from technology and automation is the critical one. As technology continues to accelerate, it is probable that it will be able to deliver whatever functions we wish it to. It is therefore appropriate to consider what the role of the human should be. If such considerations are not made now, then accelerating technology and traffic levels, and the need for ATM systems that can cope, will deliver systems which, if they fail, will lead to the types of negative experiences and fatal accidents that the aviation world has already experienced. Quite simply, if the role of the human is not considered now, it will be too late to consider it. Furthermore, if this occurs, then future as yet unforseen automation-assisted accidents will inevitably be attributed to human error. This paper considers some of the factors and issues surrounding the difficult area of automation and allocation of function, and gives an example of one method, based on error analysis, which has been used to try to answer some of the difficult automation questions currently facing ATM and human factors.     

Accident risk and driver behaviour

The concepts of risk compensation and risk homeostasis are often used to describe or to explain drivers' tendencies to react to traffic system changes whether in roads, vehicles, weather conditions or in their own skills. However, it is important to distinguish between the general phenomenon and mechanisms underlying it. This paper first points out that to understand the basic mechanisms it is necessary to split accidents and exposure into smaller entities to arrive at basic units of exposure which also represent fundamental driver tasks. Risk-related behaviour should be considered at several hierarchical levels with different mechanisms to produce ‘risk compensation’. At a high level, trip decisions modify populations at risk in different circumstances, sometimes attenuating, sometimes amplifying population risk differences. At a low level of vehicle control and guidance in real dynamic traffic situations, simpler control mechanisms which result in behavioural adaptation can be identified. All these effects influence the end result of accident risk as separate mechanisms.     

Making sense of invulnerability at work—a qualitative study of police drivers

This paper reports a qualitative study of 54 police drivers who were interviewed about their views on police driver training, driving strategies and their accident involvement. Study of the transcribed interviews indicated that officers constructed narratives of themselves as being highly aware of hazards presented by other road users and they used a variety of discursive devices to minimise their own culpability and attribute risk elsewhere. Rather than maintaining a straightforward ‘illusion of invulnerability’ they were formulating a ‘topography of risk’ in which they were responding to hazards presented by suspects or other road users. Their meticulously detailed accounts of the circumstances surrounding accidents serve to place them as knowledgeable and impartial participants and create a sense of expertise and authority. Training initiatives could profitably seek to challenge this ‘topography of risk’ and sense of authority so that drivers more fully appreciate the hazard they may present to themselves and the public.     

基于系统动力学(SD)的民航可持续安全发展决策研究

为了解决民航行业保障能力与发展需求之间的矛盾所带来的安全问题,在对民航行业进行系统分析的基础上,利用系统动力学方法建立了民航可持续安全发展决策流图。通过专家访谈和文献分析法构建了3种政策场景。利用Vensim软件对模型进行了仿真,结果表明:在保障能力不变的条件下,2015年将航班审批率降低0.3,可实现行业的安全目标,但航班量在2015—2025年发展十分缓慢;在发展水平不变的条件下,2015年将保障能力提高0.3,可在2021年实现行业的安全目标;在可持续发展的策略下,在2015—2018年将航班审批率降低0.3、2018年之后将航班审批率提高0.4,在2015年将保障能力提高0.2,可实现我国民航行业的可持续安全发展。     

Human factors and safety in the design of intelligent vehicle-highway systems (IVHS)

Intelligent Vehicle-Highway Systems (IVHS) have been proposed in the wake of rapid worldwide growth in traffic volume and density. These systems involve the application of advanced sensor, communications, computational, and control technologies to the design of highways and vehicles to improve traffic flow and safety. Similar technologies have been applied in other transportation systems such as aviation and air-traffic control, and it is suggested that the human factors insights derived from these systems can be usefully applied, proactively rather than retroactively, in IVHS design. Several safety and human factors issues relevant to the design of IVHS technologies, both near-term and long-term, are discussed, including: (a) the optimization of driver mental workload in highly-automated “hybrid” systems; (b) the design of in-vehicle navigation aids and the resolution of display conflicts; (c) individual and group differences in driver behavior and their implications for training and licensure; (d) the evolution and integration of IVHS technologies; and (e) traffic management and the regulation of driver trust in IVHS. Successful resolution of these issues and their incorporation in IVHS design will provide for fully functional systems that will serve the twin needs of reducing traffic congestion and improving highway safety.     

Measuring safety climate: identifying the common features

In UK industry, particularly in the energy sector, there has been a movement away from ‘lagging’ measures of safety based on retrospective data, such as lost time accidents and incidents, towards ‘leading’ or predictive assessments of the safety climate of the organisation or worksite. A number of different instruments have been developed by industrial psychologists for this purpose, resulting in a proliferation of scales with distinct developmental histories. Reviewing the methods and results from a sample of industrial surveys, the thematic basis of 18 scales used to assess safety climate is examined. This suggests that the most typically assessed dimensions relate to management (72% of studies), the safety system (67%), and risk (67%), in addition themes relating to work pressure and competence appear in a third of the studies.     

Density, velocity and flow relationships for closely packed crowds

Work undertaken to quantify the relationships between crowd velocities, flow rates and densities for uni-directional motion is reviewed. Most of the available data has been generated for underground stations in the UK; similar work for commuter stations in Japan is introduced and developed. Maximum observed flow rates from this work are compared with those suggested in the ‘Green Guide’ for the evacuation of sports grounds. The ‘Green Guide’ figures are higher than the maximum values obtained from the work reviewed.     

Bifocal/varifocal spectacles, lighting and missed-step accidents

Good lighting and the correct use of spectacles generally improve vision and presumably reduce the risk of accidents. However, bifocal and varifocal spectacles can increase the risk of misjudging distances when negotiating underfoot hazards. In some circumstances, the portion of the lens used for close work may inadvertently be used where accurate judgement of distance is necessary. This paper reports results from two studies of patient interviews using the Merseyside Accident Information Model; the first a study of accidents which occurred during paid employment (1504 cases) and the second of 1326 accidents mainly in domestic and leisure activities. Underfoot accidents were identified by the first unforeseen event perceived by the patient. The relationship between underfoot events and the type of spectacles worn by the patient at the time of accident was analysed. In both studies there was a significant association between accidents where the first event was ‘missed edge of’ (step) and wearing bifocal/varifocal spectacles. Corporal movements reported in both studies indicated that ‘stepping down’ when wearing bifocal/varifocal spectacles, increased the risk of ‘missed edge’ accidents. In the work environment corporal movements associated with manual handling of loads also increased the risk of ‘missed edge’ accidents when wearing bifocal/varifocal spectacles.     

What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find – The consequences of underlying accident models in eight accident investigation manuals

Accident investigation manuals are influential documents on various levels in a safety management system, and it is therefore important to appraise them in the light of what we currently know – or assume – about the nature of accidents. Investigation manuals necessarily embody or represent an accident model, i.e., a set of assumptions about how accidents happen and what the important factors are. In this paper we examine three aspects of accident investigation as described in a number of investigation manuals. Firstly, we focus on accident models and in particular the assumptions about how different factors interact to cause – or prevent – accidents, i.e., the accident “mechanisms”. Secondly, we focus on the scope in the sense of the factors (or factor domains) that are considered in the models – for instance (hu)man, technology, and organization (MTO). Thirdly, we focus on the system of investigation or the activities that together constitute an accident investigation project/process. We found that the manuals all used complex linear models. The factors considered were in general (hu)man, technology, organization, and information. The causes found during an investigation reflect the assumptions of the accident model, following the ‘What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find’ or WYLFIWYF principle. The identified causes typically became specific problems to be fixed during an implementation of solutions. This follows what can be called ‘What-You-Find-Is-What-You-Fix’ or WYFIWYF principle.     

航空安全风险管理模式探讨

航空安全需要动态管理,因此构建并实施基于问题管理的航空安全风险管理模式就非常有意义。本文探讨了航空公司、机场和空管的安全管理工作如何围绕航空安全问题为中心进行制度、组织、日常管理构建,注重问题的识别、分析和解决,切实有效的地解决安全问题。实施安全问题管理变专职安全管理为全员安全管理;变间接安全管理为直接安全管理;变滞后安全管理为超前安全管理;变僵化安全管理为创新安全管理;变被动安全管理为主动安全管理;变模糊安全管理为务实安全管理。无疑这种管理模式均适合民航三大主体的安全管理需求。     

The indirect involvement of buses in traffic accident processes

The involvement of buses in accidents usually is assessed implicitly on the basis of the direct involvement of the bus in the collision or in injury production. This paper deals with the scope and forms of indirect involvement of buses (as a sight obstruction, for example). Accidents were selected by identifying the presence of the term ‘bus’ or synonyms in the text parts of complete police reports (testimonies, statements by the persons involved, etc.) available in electronic form, then analysed in detail. Direct or indirect involvement of a bus is found in 3.6% of traffic injury accidents reported by the police in the community studied (direct involvement: 1.4%; indirect involvement: 2.2%). The different forms of indirect involvement are then described, and some possibilities of preventive measures are discussed.     

民航安全管理中岗位交叉培训方案的分析与研究

基于当前民航岗位安全培训仅局限于员工自身岗位安全的内容,而忽略了对于相关岗位安全之间衔接内容进行系统培训的现状,提出了民航岗位安全交叉培训;根据不同民航岗位间的具体关系,确定出需要进行交叉培训的岗位,利用FAHP模糊层次分析法选择出具体岗位(飞行员、管制员、机务员和签派员)之间的交叉培训方案;最后,根据选择结果,分别从交叉培训的性质、意义、前提等角度分析了民航安全管理中交叉培训的实施前景及需要注意的问题。     

The Merseyside Accident Information Model (MAIM) can reveal components of accidents that lead to attendance at fracture clinics and cause disability: a new approach to accident prevention

The objectives of this study were to identify components of accidents that cause the most disability and to discover the principal sources of injuries treated in the fracture clinics. Patients attending fracture clinics of the Royal Liverpool University Hospital were interviewed using a portable computer-based questionnaire, the Merseyside Accident Information Model (MAIM). Patients were followed up by telephone interview or letter to enquire about disability continuing after discharge. Disability was measured by the pre-accident to post-discharge changes in scores for 11 normal functions. Of the 1326 patients interviewed, 900 (68%) were successfully followed up and 37% reported disability after discharge. First events ‘tripping’, ‘slipping’ and ‘other underfoot events’ accounted for 433 patients (194 reporting disability), and ‘collapsed/fainted — no other event' for 66 patients (27 reporting disability). Activities at the time of accident most frequently associated with disability involved moving about on foot. Among first event objects, ground surfaces and underfoot hazards were reported in 35%. Sources of injuries included underfoot accidents (48%), sport (13%), and transport accidents (12%.). Underfoot accidents contributed to 58% of patients reporting disability, sport 6% and transport accidents 11%. Underfoot accidents together with ‘collapsed/fainted — no other event’ accounted for 79% of female patients reporting disability and 50% of men. Such data could be used for cost-effective targeting of preventative measures, and to study the effectiveness of accident prevention initiatives.     

Deterioration of the useful visual field with ageing during simulated driving in traffic and its possible consequences for road safety

A previous study has shown that the useful visual field deteriorates in a simulated road traffic situation as a function of the driver’s age and of the vehicle’s speed under monotonous conditions [Rogé, J., Pébayle, T., Lambilliotte, E., Spitzenstetter, F., Giselbrecht, D., Muzet, A., 2004. Influence of age, speed and duration of monotonous driving task in traffic on the driver’s useful visual field. Vision Research 44 (23), 2737–2744]. The aim of this new experiment is to study the effects of traffic density and age on the useful visual field of the driver during a simulated driving task with controlled traffic characteristics (speed, number of cars) for all participants. In total, 10 young drivers (m = 28.2 years) and 10 older drivers (m = 51.2 years) followed a car in road traffic at an average speed of 126 km h⁻¹ during two 2 h sessions corresponding to two conditions of traffic (light traffic, with five vehicles around the participant; and heavy traffic, with nine vehicles). While following this vehicle, the driver had to detect changes in the colour of a signal located in the central part of his or her visual field and a signal that appeared at different eccentricities on the rear lights of other vehicles in the traffic. Analysis of the data indicated that age interacted with the location of the peripheral signal and density of traffic interacted with the duration of driving. The implications of these results are discussed in terms of road safety and in terms of models of deterioration of the useful visual field (general interference and tunnel vision).     

基于GM(1,1) Markov的危化品道路运输事故与交通事故预测及关系研究

为准确预测我国危化品道路运输及交通2类事故数量趋势,探究其内在联系,在单一的灰色GM（1,1）模型基础上与马尔科夫过程组合形成灰色GM（1,1）—马尔科夫预测模型,以2013—2017年2类事故数量的原始序列探讨了该组合预测模型的实际应用,采取平均相对误差、均方差比值、小误差概率对模型进行精度检验。研究结果表明:在组合预测模型较优情况的研究中,2类事故数量历年来波动性相似,因危险化学品自身的性质、包装和装卸使得2类事故量变化频率存在偏差;2018—2019年的危化品道路运输事故分别为485起和480起,交通事故分别为225 294起和234 454起。     

Application of a predictive safety model in a combustion testing environment

A predictive safety model for accident prevention and system failure, called Continuous Hazard Tracking and Failure Prediction Methodology, is applied at the Marshall Space Flight Center's promoted combustion test chamber. It combines the underlying principles of work sampling, control charts, and multivariate analysis. The sampling is performed to observe the occurrence of conditions which may be becoming hazardous in a given system. These building blocks of hazards, which we have called dendritics, could result in an accident, system malfunction, or unacceptable risk conditions. The data collected is plotted to generate the appropriate control chart, which depends on the characteristics of the given system and the protection desired. Based on the pattern of the control chart, a system ‘under control’ is not disturbed whereas a system ‘out of control’ is investigated for potential conditions becoming hazardous. Then appropriate steps are taken to eliminate or control these conditions in order to maintain a desired safety status of the system. The continuously running characteristic of this model allows for the verification that the corrective measures taken to ameliorate the ‘out of control’ conditions were satisfactory or whether more proactive action is required. The results provided by the predictive model were validated with historical safety data.     

Unintentional injury deaths in children and youth, 2010–2019

Background: Unintentional injuries are the leading cause of death for children and youth aged 1–19 in the United States. The purpose of this report is to describe how unintentional injury death rates among children and youth aged 0–19 years have changed during 2010–2019. Method: CDC analyzed 2010–2019 data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) to determine two-year average annual number and rate of unintentional injury deaths for children and youth aged 0–19 years by sex, age group, race/ethnicity, mechanism, county urbanization level, and state. Results: From 2010–2011 to 2018–2019, unintentional injury death rates decreased 11% overall—representing over 1,100 fewer annual deaths. However, rates increased among some groups—including an increase in deaths due to suffocation among infants (20%) and increases in motor-vehicle traffic deaths among Black children (9%) and poisoning deaths among Black (37%) and Hispanic (50%) children. In 2018–2019, rates were higher for males than females (11.3 vs. 6.6 per 100,000 population), children aged < 1 and 15–19 years (31.9 and 16.8 per 100,000) than other age groups, among American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN) and Blacks than Whites (19.4 and 12.4 vs. 9.0 per 100,000), motor-vehicle traffic (MVT) than other causes of injury (4.0 per 100,000), and rates increased as rurality increased (6.8 most urban [large central metro] vs. 17.8 most rural [non-core/non-metro] per 100,000). From 2010–2011 to 2018–2019, 49 states plus DC had stable or decreasing unintentional injury death rates; death rates increased only in California (8%)—driven by poisoning deaths. Conclusion and Practical Application: While the overall injury death rates improved, certain subgroups and their caregivers can benefit from focused prevention strategies, including infants and Black, Hispanic, and AIAN children. Focusing effective strategies to reduce suffocation, MVT, and poisoning deaths among those at disproportionate risk could further reduce unintentional injury deaths among children and youth in the next decade.