Methodology for consequence analysis of LNG releases at deepwater port facilities

A methodology to perform consequence analysis associated with liquefied natural gas (LNG) for a deepwater port (DWP) facility has been presented. Analytical models used to describe the unconfined spill dynamics of LNG are discussed. How to determine the thermal hazard associated with a potential pool fire involving spilled LNG is also presented. Another hazard associated with potential releases of LNG is the dispersion of the LNG vapor. An approach using computational fluid dynamics tools (CFD) is presented. The CFD dispersion methodology is benchmarked against available test data. Using the proposed analysis approach provides estimates of hazard zones associated with newly proposed LNG deepwater ports and their potential impact to the public.     

LNG accident dynamic simulation: Application for hazardous consequence reduction

The evaluation of exclusion (hazard) zones around the LNG stations is essential for risk assessment in LNG industry. In this study, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations have been conducted for the two potential hazards, LNG flammable vapor dispersion and LNG pool fire radiation, respectively, to evaluate the exclusion zones. The spatial and temporal distribution of hazard in complex spill scenario has been taken into account in the CFD model. Experimental data from Falcon and Montoir field tests have been used to validate the simulation results. With the valid CFD model, the mitigation of the vapor dispersion with spray water curtains and the pool fire with high expansion foam were investigated. The spray water curtains were studied as a shield to prevent LNG vapor dispersing, and two types of water spray curtain, flat and cone, were analyzed to show their performance for reduction and minimization of the hazard influencing distance and area. The high expansion foam firefighting process was studied with dynamic simulation of the foam action, and the characteristics of the foam action on the reduction of LNG vaporization rate, vapor cloud and flame size as well as the thermal radiation hazard were analyzed and discussed.     

Application of fire suppression materials on suppression of LNG pool fires

An LNG pool fire is considered one of the main hazards of LNG, together with LNG vapor dispersion. Suppression methods are designed to reduce the hazard exclusion zones, distance to reach radiant heat of 5 kW/m², when an LNG pool fire is considered. For LNG vapor dispersion, the hazard exclusion zone is the distance travelled by the LNG vapor to reach a concentration of 2.5% v/v (half of the LNG lower flammability limit).Warming the LNG vapor to reach positive buoyancy faster is one way to suppress LNG vapor dispersion and reduce evaporation rate (thus fire size and its associated radiant heat) and that is the main objective in LNG pool fire suppression. Based on previous research, the use of high expansion foam has been regarded as the primary method in suppressing LNG pool fires. However, in 1980, another method was introduced as an alternative pool fire suppression system, Foamglas^®. The research concluded that 90% of the radiant heat was successfully reduced. Currently-called Foamglas^® pool fire suppression (Foamglas^® PFS) is a passive mitigation system and is deployed after the leak occurs. Foamglas^® PFS is non-flammable, and has a density one-third of the density of LNG, thus floats when an LNG pool is formed.This paper describes the study and confirmation of Foamglas^®PFS effectiveness in suppressing LNG pool fires. In addition, while Foamglas^® PFS is not expected to suppress LNG vapor dispersion, further investigation was conducted to study the effect of Foamglas^®PFS on LNG vapor dispersion. An LNG field experiment was conducted at Brayton Fire Field. The experimental development, procedures, results and findings are detailed in this paper.     

Validation of FLACS against experimental data sets from the model evaluation database for LNG vapor dispersion

The siting of facilities handling liquefied natural gas (LNG), whether for liquefaction, storage or regasification purposes, requires the hazards from potential releases to be evaluated. One of the consequences of an LNG release is the creation of a flammable vapor cloud, that may be pushed beyond the facility boundaries by the wind and thus present a hazard to the public. Therefore, numerical models are required to determine the footprint that may be covered by a flammable vapor cloud as a result of an LNG release. Several new models have been used in recent years for this type of simulations. This prompted the development of the “Model evaluation protocol for LNG vapor dispersion models” (MEP): a procedure aimed at evaluating quantitatively the ability of a model to accurately predict the dispersion of an LNG vapor cloud.This paper summarizes the MEP requirements and presents the results obtained from the application of the MEP to a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model – FLACS. The entire set of 33 experiments included in the model validation database were simulated using FLACS. The simulation results are reported and compared with the experimental data. A set of statistical performance measures are calculated based on the FLACS simulation results and compared with the acceptability criteria established in the MEP. The results of the evaluation demonstrate that FLACS can be considered a suitable model to accurately simulate the dispersion of vapor from an LNG release.     

Key parametric analysis on designing an effective forced mitigation system for LNG spill emergency

Concerns over public safety and security of a potential liquefied natural gas (LNG) spill have promoted the need for continued improvement of safety measures for LNG facilities. The mitigation techniques have been recognized as one of the areas that require further investigation to determine the public safety impact of an LNG spill. Forced mitigation of LNG vapors using a water curtain system has been proven to be effective in reducing the vapor concentration by enhancing the dispersion. Currently, no engineering criteria for designing an effective water curtain system are available, mainly due to a lack of understanding of the complex droplet–vapor interaction. This work applies computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling to evaluate various key design parameters involved in the LNG forced mitigation using an upwards-oriented full-cone water spray. An LNG forced dispersion model based on a Eulerian–Lagrangian approach was applied to solve the physical interactions of the droplet–vapor system by taking into account the various effects of the droplets (discrete phase) on the air–vapor mixture (continuous phase). The effects of different droplet sizes, droplet temperatures, air entrainment rates, and installation configurations of water spray applications on LNG vapor behavior are investigated. Finally, the potential of applying CFD modeling in providing guidance for setting up the design criteria for an effective forced mitigation system as an integrated safety element for LNG facilities is discussed.     

CFD-based simulation of dense gas dispersion in presence of obstacles

Quantification of spatial and temporal concentration profiles of vapor clouds resulting from accidental loss of containment of toxic and/or flammable substances is of great importance as correct prediction of spatial and temporal profiles can not only help in designing mitigation/prevention equipment such as gas detection alarms and shutdown procedures but also help decide on modifications that may help prevent any escalation of the event.The most commonly used models - SLAB (Ermak, 1990), HEGADAS (Colenbrander, 1980), DEGADIS (Spicer & Havens, 1989), HGSYSTEM (Witlox & McFarlane, 1994), PHAST (DNV, 2007), ALOHA (EPA & NOAA, 2007), SCIPUFF (Sykes, Parker, Henn, & Chowdhury, 2007), TRACE (SAFER Systems, 2009), etc. - for simulation of dense gas dispersion consider the dispersion over a flat featureless plain and are unable to consider the effect of presence of obstacles in the path of dispersing medium. In this context, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been recognized as a potent tool for realistic estimation of consequence of accidental loss of containment because of its ability to take into account the effect of complex terrain and obstacles present in the path of dispersing fluid.The key to a successful application of CFD in dispersion simulation lies in the accuracy with which the effect of turbulence generated due to the presence of obstacles is assessed. Hence a correct choice of the most appropriate turbulence model is crucial to a successful implementation of CFD in the modeling and simulation of dispersion of toxic and/or flammable substances.In this paper an attempt has been made to employ CFD in the assessment of heavy gas dispersion in presence of obstacles. For this purpose several turbulence models were studied for simulating the experiments conducted earlier by Health and Safety Executive, (HSE) U.K. at Thorney Island, USA (Lees, 2005). From the various experiments done at that time, the findings of Trial 26 have been used by us to see which turbulence model enables the best fit of the CFD simulation with the actual findings. It is found that the realizable k-? model was the most apt and enabled the closest prediction of the actual findings in terms of spatial and temporal concentration profiles. It was also able to capture the phenomenon of gravity slumping associated with dense gas dispersion.     

Evaporating liquid flow in a channel (An integral model based on shallow water flow approximation)

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) storage facilities generally include channels to convey potential spills of the liquid to an impoundment. There is increasing concern that dispersion of vapors generated by flow of LNG in a channel may lead to higher than limit vapor concentrations for safety at site boundary from channels that may be close to the dike walls. This issue is of recent concern to regulatory agencies, because the calculation of vapor hazard distance(s) from LNG flow in a channel is not required under existing LNG facility siting standards or regulations.An important parameter that directly affects the calculated LNG vapor dispersion distance is the source strength (i.e., the rate of vaporization of LNG flow from the wetted channel surfaces, as a function of spatial position and time). In this paper a model is presented which considers the variation of the depth of the flowing LNG with spatial location and time, and calculates the spatial and temporal dependence of the mass rate of vapor generation. Self similar profiles for the spatial variation of the thermal boundary layer in the liquid wetted wall and liquid depth variation are assumed. The variation with time of the location of the liquid spread front and the evaporation rate are calculated for the case of a constant LNG spill rate into a rectangular channel. The effects of two different channel slopes are evaluated. Details of the results and their impact on dispersion distances are discussed.     

LNG trench dispersion modeling using computational fluid dynamics

Quantifying the size of flammable vapor cloud hazards associated with an accidental release of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) into a spill containment system supported by narrow drainage trenches has posed a modeling challenge since the inception of the LNG industry. Early attempts to treat the vapors evolving from the trenches included using line-source Gaussian models, and the use of the DEGADIS model by modeling “segmented” trench elements and adding the contributions from each trench segment at a specified downwind distance. These approaches often are only reasonable for a select set of conditions (e.g., winds perpendicular to the trench) and have no ability to simulate many of the conditions that might result in a larger potential impact (e.g., winds blowing parallel to the trench).     

Use of water spray curtain to disperse LNG vapor clouds

Effective safety measures to prevent and mitigate the consequences of an accidental release of flammable LNG are critical. Water spray curtain is currently recognized as an effective technique to control and mitigate various hazards in the industries. It has been used to absorb, dilute and disperse both toxic and flammable vapor cloud. It is also used as protection against heat radiation, in case of fighting vapor cloud fire. Water curtain has also been considered as one of the most economic and promising LNG vapor cloud control techniques. Water curtains are expected to enhance LNG vapor cloud dispersion mainly through mechanical effects, dilution, and thermal effects. The actual phenomena involved in LNG vapor and water curtain interaction were not clearly established from previous research. LNG spill experiments have been performed at the Brayton Fire Training Field at Texas A&M University (TAMU) to understand the effect of water curtain in controlling and dispersing LNG vapor cloud. This paper summarizes experimental methodology and presents data from two water curtain tests. The analysis of the test results are also presented to identify the effectiveness of these two types of water spray curtains in enhancing the LNG vapor cloud dispersion.     

Computational fluid dynamics analysis of liquefied natural gas dispersion for risk assessment strategies

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations have been conducted for dense gas dispersion of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The simulations have taken into account the effects of gravity, time-dependent downwind and crosswind dispersion, and terrain. Experimental data from the Burro series field tests, and results from integral model (DEGADIS) have been used to assess the validity of simulation results, which were found to compare better with experimental data than the commonly used integral model DEGADIS. The average relative error in maximum downwind gas concentration between CFD predictions and experimental data was 19.62%.The validated CFD model was then used to perform risk assessment for most-likely-spill scenario at LNG stations as described in the standard of NFPA 59A (2009) “Standard for the Production, Storage and Handling of Liquefied Natural Gas”. Simulations were conducted to calculate the gas dispersion behaviour in the presence of obstacles (dikes walls). Interestingly for spill at a higher elevation, e.g., tank top, the effect of impounding dikes on the affected area was minimal. However, the impoundment zone did affect the wind velocity field in general, and generated a swirl inside it, which then played an important function in confining the dispersion cloud inside the dike. For most cases, almost 75% of the dispersed vapour was retained inside the impoundment zone. The finding and analysis presented here will provide an important tool for designing LNG plant layout and site selection.     

Quantification of source-level turbulence during LNG spills onto a water pond

The use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models to simulate LNG vapor dispersion scenarios has been growing steadily over the last few years, with applications to LNG spills on land as well as on water. Before a CFD model may be used to predict the vapor dispersion hazard distances for a hypothetical LNG spill scenario, it is necessary for the model to be validated with respect to relevant experimental data. As part of a joint-industry project aimed at validating the CFD methodology, the LNG vapor source term, including the turbulence level associated with the evaporation process vapors was quantified for one of the Falcon tests.This paper presents the method that was used to quantify the turbulent intensity of evaporating LNG, by analyzing the video images of one of the Falcon tests, which involved LNG spills onto a water pond. The measured rate of LNG pool growth and spreading and the quantified turbulence intensity that were obtained from the image analysis were used as the LNG vapor source term in the CFD model to simulate the Falcon-1 LNG spill test. Several CFD simulations were performed, using a vaporization flux of 0.127 kg/m² s, radial and outward spreading velocities of 1.53 and 0.55 m/s respectively, and a range of turbulence kinetic energy values between 2.9 and 28.8 m²/s². The resulting growth and spread of the vapor cloud within the impounded area and outside of it were found to match the observed behavior and the experimental measured data.The results of the analysis presented in this paper demonstrate that a detailed and accurate definition of the LNG vapor source term is critical in order for any vapor cloud dispersion simulation to provide useful and reliable results.     

Vapor flammability above aqueous solutions of flammable liquids

The flammability of vapors above aqueous solutions of ethanol and acetonitrile was studied experimentally in a 20-L combustion apparatus. No liquid was present in the apparatus, but the vapor concentrations were adjusted to correspond to the vapor in equilibrium with a specified aqueous solution. The experimental results for these two systems show that

• As water is added to the vapor, the lower boundary of the flammability zone decreases. For ethanol, the lower flammability limits (LFL) decreases from 3.7% for pure vapor to 3.2% with saturated water vapor. For acetonitrile, the decrease is from 4.2% to 3.8%. Thus, to a good approximation, the water vapor can be treated as an inert, enabling the data to be displayed on a single flammability triangle diagram. This provides a very simplified method for estimating the flammable behavior for aqueous solutions.

• The upper boundary of the flammability zone is unchanged with the addition of water.

• The limiting oxygen concentration (LOC) is essentially constant for all concentrations of aqueous solutions. The LOC for the pure solvent may be used as a universal LOC for all solvent concentrations.

• The vapor mixture above the aqueous solution is not flammable below a certain liquid mol fraction of flammable. The flammable concentration at which this occurs can be called the maximum safe solvent concentration (MSSC). A method is presented to determine the MSSC from experimental flammability data.

• The oxygen concentration defining the flammable boundary for the vapor decreases rapidly from the MSSC and then increases as the liquid solvent concentration increases.

The calculated adiabatic flame temperature (CAFT) method qualitatively predicts the same behavior as the experimental data.     

液化天然气场站事故定量风险评价方法研究

液化天然气（LNG）具有低温、易挥发、易燃、易爆的特性,其场站安全问题凸显。研究结合某LNG汽车加注站加注枪或管道LNG溢出的可能性事故,对事故发生概率及后果进行定量分析,其中事故后果的确定采用DEGAD IS和LNGF ire3模型。文章结合相关文献提供的伤害准则数据,得出人员受伤等级和死亡率,进而确定事故造成的个人风险值。与英国、荷兰等国家和机构制定的个人风险标准进行比较,所得的个人风险大大低于标准极限值,同时表明将5kW/m2作为安全距离临界热辐射强度的合理性。     

Numerical simulation of LNG dispersion under two-phase release conditions

The use of LNG (liquefied natural gas) as fuel brings up issues regarding safety and acceptable risk. The potential hazards associated with an accidental LNG spill should be evaluated, and a useful tool in LNG safety assessment is computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. In this paper, the ADREA-HF code has been applied to simulate LNG dispersion in open-obstructed environment based on Falcon Series Experiments. During these experiments LNG was released and dispersed over water surface. The spill area is confined with a billboard upwind of the water pond. FA1 trial was chosen to be simulated, because its release and weather conditions (high total spill volume and release rate, low wind speed) allow the gravitational force to influence the cold, dense vapor cloud and can be considered as a benchmark for LNG dispersion in fenced area. The source was modeled with two different approaches: as vapor pool and as two phase jet and the predicted methane concentration at sensors' location was compared with the experimental one. It is verified that the source model affect to a great extent the LNG dispersion and the best case was the one modeling the source as two phase jet. However, the numerical results in the case of two phase jet source underestimate the methane concentration for most of the sensors. Finally, the paper discusses the effect of neglecting the ?9.3° experimental wind direction, which leads to the symmetry assumption with respect to wind and therefore less computational costs. It was found that this effect is small in case of a jet source but large in the case of a pool source.     

Development of machine learning based prediction models for hazardous properties of chemical mixtures

Lower flammability limit (LFL), upper flammability limit (UFL), auto-ignition temperature (AIT) and flash point (FP) are crucial hazardous properties for fire and explosion hazards assessment and consequence analysis. In this study, a comprehensive prediction model set was constructed by using expanded chemical mixture databases of chemical mixture hazardous properties. Machine learning based gradient boosting quantitative structure-property relationship (GB-QSPR) method is implemented for the first time to improve the model performance and prediction accuracy. The result shows that all developed models have significantly higher accuracy than other regular QSPR models, with the 5-fold cross-validation RMSE of LFL, UFL, AIT, and FP models being 1.06, 1.14, 1.08, and 1.17, respectively. All developed QSPR models can be used to estimate reliable chemical mixture hazardous properties and provide useful guidance in chemical mixture hazard assessment and consequence analysis.     

A protocol for the evaluation of LNG vapour dispersion models

The international transport, storage and utilisation of LNG is growing rapidly. Whilst the LNG industry has an excellent safety record, the possibility of an accidental release cannot be discounted. Internationally-accepted standards, such as the 59A Standard of the US National Fire Protection Association (NFPA), provide direction on the assessment of LNG spill hazards and hazard range criteria which must be met. Modelling of the atmospheric dispersion of LNG vapour from accidental spills is one of the critical steps in such hazard analyses. This paper describes a comprehensive evaluation protocol devised for the 59A Standard, specifically for the assessment of LNG vapour dispersion models. The evaluation protocol is based on methodologies developed in previous European Union studies, which have been extended, significantly adapted and tailored to the specific requirements of the evaluation of models for the dispersion of LNG vapour. The protocol comprises scientific evaluation of the numerical and physical basis of models for the dispersion of LNG vapour, model verification, and validation; resulting in a comprehensive model evaluation report which includes qualitative and quantitative criteria for model acceptance. A supporting suite of validation data, and guidance on the use of this data, has also been produced. The NFPA 59A (2009) standard states that LNG vapour dispersion models are acceptable for use if they have been evaluated in accordance with this protocol.     

Influence of active mitigation barriers on LNG dispersion

In recent years, particular interest has been direct to the issues of risk associated with the storage, transport and use of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) due to the increasing consideration that it is receiving for energy applications. Consequently, a series of experimental and modeling studies to analyze the behavior of LNG have been carried out to collect an archive of evaporation, dispersion and combustion information, and several mathematical models have been developed to represent LNG dispersion in realistic environments and to design mitigation barriers.This work uses Computational Fluid Dynamics codes to model the dispersion of a dense gas in the atmosphere after accidental release. In particular, it will study the dispersion of LNG due to accidental breakages of a pipeline and it will analyze how it is possible to mitigate the dispersing cloud through walls and curtains of water vapor and air, also providing a criterion for the design of such curtains.     

Uncertainty techniques in liquefied natural gas (LNG) dispersion calculations

The dynamic development of the LNG sector increases the risk of major accidents. Uncontrolled releases of LNG during the processes of manufacturing, distribution, storage, and regasification can pose a serious threat to people, facilities, and the environment. Therefore, an important goal is to determine hazard zones and the extent of potential consequences associated with a release of LNG. The key issue is to estimate these with the least level of uncertainty. The largest part of uncertainty comes from the modeling of LNG release sources and performing dispersion calculations. It is connected with the application of different mathematical models, the adoption of a number of simplifying assumptions, approximations, empirical relations, constants, and a lack of knowledge.This paper proposes a general procedure for calculating the release rate and duration time of the LNG release, pool spreading, vaporization, as well as dispersion, taking into consideration the uncertainty. The procedure consists of two parts. The first part concerns the sensitivity analysis to identify the most uncertain parameters of the LNG source term and dispersion models. The second part applies to two techniques used to include the uncertainty aspects of fuzzy sets and the Monte Carlo method for calculating hazard zones. In order to provide a basis for comparison between these two approaches, the shape of the membership functions used in the fuzzy methods are the same as the shape of the probability density function used in the Monte Carlo simulation. The case study, concerning an LNG release, illustrates the application of the proposed techniques.     

Highlights of LNG risk technology

The authors have recently undertaken a major review of LNG consequence modeling, compiling a wide range of historical information with more recent experiments and modeling approaches in a book entitled “LNG Risk-Based Safety: Modeling and Consequence Analysis”. All the main consequence routes were reviewed – discharge, evaporation, pool and jet fire, vapor cloud explosions, rollover, and Rapid Phase Transitions (RPT’s). In the book, experimental data bases are assembled for tests on pool spread and evaporation, burn rates, dispersion, fire and radiation and effects on personnel and structures. The current paper presents selected highlights of interest: lessons learned from historical development and experience, comparison of predictions by various models, varying mechanisms for LNG spread of water, a modeling protocol to enable acceptance of newer models, and unresolved technical issues such as cascading failures, fire engulfment of a carrier, the circumstances for a possible LNG BLEVE, and accelerated evaporation by LNG penetration into water.     

Risk-based siting considerations for LNG terminals – Comparative perspectives of United States & Europe

Siting regulations and industrial standards for liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals are evolving along different paths within Europe and the United States (U.S.). The 49 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), Part 190 continues to delineate the United States process to adopt and revise safety regulations pertaining to LNG terminals and peak shaving plant sitting.¹ Embodied in these regulations are rich legal and regulatory traditions that are unique to the U.S. perspective. For example, the public is encouraged to petition existing regulations and to comment on regulatory proposals. Litigation within the U.S. court system is another means by which industry and the public may seek regulatory change. This approach promotes public involvement in governmental oversight and creates a distinctive obligation and accountability for U.S. regulatory agencies, which uniquely shape technical, safety, risk mitigation, and societal risk perspectives for siting LNG terminals.European traditions shape siting regulations for LNG terminals as well. Though American siting guidance includes references to the National Fire Protection Association’s NFPA 59A and 49 CFR, Part 193, European developers also apply the guidance within EN 1473 – a risk-based case-by-case analysis directive.^{2, 3 and 4} The NFPA 59A standard is applied for a basis to examine property line spacing as they pertain or may relate to off-site hazard impacts. The European approach applies the assessment and suitability of code compliance and the application of accepted engineering practices. In addition the approach incorporates the application of empirical risk assessments and computational modeling to reach an understanding of risk exposures. European policies set limits on the population’s cumulative exposure to facility risks and require LNG facility developers not to exceed established risk criteria.This paper describes how the U.S. and Europe site LNG terminals, identifies key differences in their risk-based approaches, and explains why these differences exist. This discussion also examines historical precedents that have influenced regulations and approval processes for siting LNG terminals within each continent.