A research model--forecasting incident rates from optimized safety program intervention strategies

INTRODUCTION/PROBLEM: Property damage incidents, workplace injuries, and safety programs designed to prevent them, are expensive aspects of doing business in contemporary industry. The National Safety Council (2002) estimated that workplace injuries cost $146.6 billion per year. Because companies are resource limited, optimizing intervention strategies to decrease incidents with less costly programs can contribute to improved productivity. METHOD: Systematic data collection methods were employed and the forecasting ability of a time-lag relationship between interventions and incident rates was studied using various statistical methods (an intervention is not expected to have an immediate nor infinitely lasting effect on the incident rate). RESULTS/SUMMARY: As a follow up to the initial work, researchers developed two models designed to forecast incident rates. One is based on past incident rate performance and the other on the configuration and level of effort applied to the safety and health program. Researchers compared actual incident performance to the prediction capability of each model over 18 months in the forestry operations at an electricity distribution company and found the models to allow accurate prediction of incident rates. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: These models potentially have powerful implications as a business-planning tool for human resource allocation and for designing an optimized safety and health intervention program to minimize incidents. Depending on the mathematical relationship, one can determine what interventions, where and how much to apply them, and when to increase or reduce human resource input as determined by the forecasted performance.     

Modeling using dynamic variables – An approach for the design of loss prevention programs

Records from The National Safety Council [National Safety Council, 2007. Safety Intervention Evaluation: A Systematic Approach. <http://www.acgih.org/events/ControlBand/Thomas_SafetyIntervention.pdf> (accessed 10.01.07)] have shown that in 2004 alone, on-the-job injuries to workers constituted 35% of total recorded injuries in the United States. This generated an associated cost of about $142.2 billion. Unfortunately, the safety intervention programs enforced at work places to mitigate such losses are driven mainly by intuition and experience of involved safety personnel. This paper details implementing a computer program to furnish safety personnel with an empirical basis for designing loss prevention programs based on historical safety data. The computer tool is driven by a dynamic mathematical model which adapts itself to variations in data patterns and explains the correlation between historical incident rates and corresponding resources committed to interventions. This study empowers the industry with a tool that is capable of forming the core of optimizing valuable human resource allocation in safety program designs.     

The prevention of occupational injuries in two industrial plants using an incident reporting scheme

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to examine whether the introduction of an incident reporting scheme with feedback in two industrial plants had an effect on the number of major incidents. METHOD: An intervention design with measurements before the implementation of the incident reporting scheme and two years later was used to examine the relationship between incident rates, safety climate, the willingness to report incidents and perceived management commitment to safety. RESULTS: The results showed that a successful implementation of an incident reporting scheme was followed by a decline in the incidence of major incidents at a Danish metal plant. A key factor in implementing the scheme was top management commitment, which was lacking at another plant, where the implementation of a similar scheme failed. CONCLUSION: Although the study shows some encouraging results concerning the use of incident reporting schemes to prevent occupational accidents, the possibility to draw causal conclusions is limited in the present study, and further studies are needed before the effectiveness of such schemes can be evaluated with certainty.     

基于数据挖掘的施工危险识别注意投入与分配研究*

为分析施工情境中危险识别注意资源动态投入分配规律,基于动态时间规整算法,挖掘危险识别注视轨迹序列,以表征注意资源投入分配变化,并采用k-means聚类、注视熵、Needleman-Wunsch全局序列对齐算法和统计等方法,深入挖掘注意资源在危险目标中投入和分配等时空变化规律。研究结果表明:当事人危险识别各阶段注意资源呈现从显著目标到高危目标的投入变化趋势,危险识别注意资源分配随情境复杂因素呈现零散、均匀的空间特征,分配无序程度提高。     

Actual safety performance of the Malaysian offshore oil platforms: Correlations between the leading and lagging indicators

IntroductionThis study establishes the correlations between performance of a set of key safety factors and the actual lagging performance of oil platforms in Malaysia, hence the relevance of the key safety factors in evaluating and predicting the safety performance of oil and gas platforms. The key factors are crucial components of a safety performance evaluation framework and each key safety factor corresponds to a list of underlying safety indicators.MethodIn this study, participating industrial practitioners rated the compliance status of each indicator using a numbering system adapted from the traffic light system, based on the actual performance of 10 oil platforms in Malaysia. Safety scores of the platforms were calculated based on the ratings and compared with the actual lagging performance of the platforms. Safety scores of two platforms were compared with the facility status reports' findings of the respective platforms.ResultsThe platforms studied generally had good performance. Total recordable incident rates of the platforms were found to show significant negative correlations with management and work engagement on safety, compliance score for number of incident and near misses, personal safety, and management of change. Lost time injury rates, however, correlated negatively with hazard identification and risk assessment. The safety scores generally agreed with findings of the facility status reports with substandard process containment found as a contributor of hydrocarbon leaks.ConclusionsThis study proves the criterion validity of the safety performance evaluation framework and demonstrates its usability for benchmarking and continuous improvement of safety practices on the Malaysian offshore oil and gas platforms.Practical applicationsThis study reveals the applicability of the framework and the potential of extending safety reporting beyond the few conventional lagging safety performance indicators used. The study also highlights the synergy between correlating safety factors to streamline safety management on offshore platforms.     

A new approach for resource allocation for black spot treatment (case study: The road network of Iran)

Introduction: Currently, spatial and temporal distribution of safety resources in Iran is entirely based on expert opinions, regardless of network priorities. Considering the lack of resources for implementing safety treatments, prioritizing unsafe points is an important and complicated issue where the effectiveness of each safety treatment option should be thoroughly investigated. The political, social, and environmental aspects should also be taken into consideration, including social and political pressures and officials talks on less important topics. Obviously, this inappropriate resource allocation poses a serious challenge to the expected goals. In this study, a methodology based on economic and social issues is proposed to optimize the annual budget allocation for eliminating or reducing the risk of accident-prone points. In this methodology, the spatial and temporal distribution of budget is determined using a mathematical model aimed to maximize the benefits of reducing the accidents after deducting the costs of implementing the safety countermeasures. The outputs of this model include the safety countermeasure alternatives and a five-year time schedule for implementing them, or the alternative of no action with regard to budget, social, and judicial constraints. In order to evaluate the proposed method, it is applied to the road network of Iran and the results are compared with those of the conventional method that is currently used for resource allocation in this country. The results show that the proposed method leads to 15% higher benefits compared to the conventional method. Moreover, this method makes 641 safe points, which is about 17% more than the safe points resulted from the existing method. Therefore, the proposed method brings about a safer network as a result of the optimal allocation of available resources.     

人因脆弱性对安全注意力衰减的SEM研究

为深入研究人因脆弱性影响因素对安全注意力衰减的深层次作用关系,基于复杂系统脆弱性（CSV）理论,采用因子分析法对人因脆弱性进行主成分分析,提取8个人因脆弱性因子;然后,引入安全注意力配置作为中介变量,借助结构方程模型技术建立人因脆弱性对安全注意力衰减的SEM。结果表明:安全注意力配置与安全素质、安全意识、受教育程度、工作年限、安全知识、工作倦怠、安全心理等因子显著相关;安全注意力衰减与安全意识、安全自制力、工作倦怠、安全心理等因子显著相关;安全注意力配置与安全自制力的关系不显著;安全注意力衰减与安全素质、受教育程度、工作年限、安全知识的关系不显著。     

Multi-level safety climate associations with safety behaviors in the fire service

Introduction: Limited research associated with safety climate has been completed within the fire service. Given this dearth of information, the present study sought to identify a valid and reliable measure of safety climate at both the workgroup and organizational levels within the fire service. Methods: Researchers surveyed 994 firefighters in two large metropolitan fire departments. Preliminary analyses including psychometrics, confirmatory factor analyses, and shared perception analyses were completed. A linear mixed model analysis was then completed to assess the relationships between workgroup safety climate, organizational safety climate, and safety behaviors, including both safety compliance and safety citizenship behaviors. Results: Measures of safety climate at the workgroup (WGSC) and organizational levels (OSC) were derived. WGSC factors include supervisor support (α = 0.92), vertical cohesion (α = 0.89), and horizontal cohesion (α = 0.94). OSC factors include management commitment (α = 0.91), safety programs/policies (α = 0.89), perceived fairness (α = 0.86) and incident command (α = 0.90). Confirmatory factor analyses confirmed our multi-factor models were a good fit to the data. The linear mixed model analysis found that WGSC positively predicted safety compliance behavior (B = 0.13, p < .001) and safety citizenship behavior (B = 0.22, p < .001) and OSC positively predicted safety compliance behavior (B = 0.16, p < .001) and safety citizenship behavior (B = 0.15, p < .001). Conclusions: This work presents reliable and valid measures of both workgroup and organizational safety climate, which have positive relationships with safety behavior outcomes. Practical application: The measures, which were developed through an extensive multi-method process, provide a means for researchers and practitioners to assess safety climate in the fire service and provides guidance for future safety climate research, including informing intervention research, which could potentially bolster safety climate and enhance safety in the fire service.     

Parental risk perceptions of childhood pedestrian road safety

Problem: Pedestrian injury is a major hazard to the health of children in most developed countries, including Australia. In a previous study it was found that parental road risk perception is a significant factor associated with their modeling of safe behavior as pedestrians. This study aimed to investigate factors that affect parental road risk perception. Method: This cross-sectional population-based randomized telephone survey aimed to study factors associated with risk perception on pedestrian road safety among parents with young children aged 4–12 years. Results: Five factors were found to be significantly associated with parental risk perception. They included age of child, sex of parent, employment of parent, living environment, and previous injury experience. The results suggested that the age of the child contributed greatest to the variance explained by the regression model. However, other factors remained significant even after adjusting for each other. Discussion: Results were discussed in light of the design and development of childhood pedestrian road safety campaigns. Impact on industry: Parental risk perceptions determine their safe road modeling behavior. In this study, significant factors that affect parental road risk perception have been identified. The information obtained can be used in the design of road safety programs that aim at changing the road risk perception of parents.     

The relationship between employees' perceptions of safety and organizational culture

PROBLEM: With limited resources to help reduce occupational injuries, companies struggle with how to best focus these resources to achieve the greatest reduction in injuries for the optimal cost. Safety culture has been identified as a critical factor that sets the tone for importance of safety within an organization. METHOD: An employee safety perception survey was conducted, and injury data were collected over a 45-month period from a large ready-mix concrete producer located in the southwest region of the United States. RESULTS: The results of this preliminary study suggest that the reductions in injuries experienced at the company locations was strongly impacted by the positive employee perceptions on several key factors. Management's commitment to safety was the factor with the greatest positive perception by employees taking the survey. DISCUSSION: This study was set up as a pilot project and did not unitize an experimental design. That weakness reduces the strength of these findings but adds to the importance of expanding the pilot project with an appropriate experimental design. SUMMARY: Management leadership has been identified, along with several other factors, to influence employee perceptions of the safety management system. Those perceptions, in turn, appear to influence employee decisions that relate to at-risk behaviors and decisions on the job. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The results suggest that employee perceptions of the safety system are related to management's commitment to safety, which, in turn, appear to be related to injury rates. Management should focus on how to best leverage these key factors to more positively impact injury rates within their companies.     

公路突发交通事件应急资源配置效率研究*

为合理有效配置公路突发事件下的应急资源，从资源投入与产出角度建立3级评价指标体系，在此基础上将应急资源投入与产出比作为目标函数，引入数据包络分析法构建应急资源配置效率模型，采用TOPSIS法对应急资源配置方案效率进行排序。以新疆10个公路局应急资源配置效率为例，分析其资源投入与产出的冗余度，并对有效决策单元进行排序。结果表明:该模型能获得应急资源配置冗余度，并对其进行资源配置效率分析，从而为公路局进行有效资源配置提供参考。     

利益相关者视角下的旅游资源安全问题研究

基于旅游资源安全的不同利益相关者的纬度,从其实践和威胁因素的研究出发,从政府、旅游企业、旅游资源经营者、社区、旅游者以及其他利益相关者等几个方面分析利益相关者与旅游资源安全的关系;探讨旅游资源安全管理的制度需求;认为旅游资源安全的利益相关者可分为核心层、战略层、外围层等3个层次。虽然威胁旅游资源安全的因素有很多,但旅游资源安全管理的重点仍然是处理好与核心层的利益相关者的关系。     

基于案例推理的化工园区应急资源需求预测

为确定化工园区突发事故的应急资源需求,提出了一种基于案例推理的化工园区应急资源需求预测方法。该方法主要由三部分组成:(1)基于案例推理的模型构建;(2)化工园区事故的案例描述;(3)基于人工神经网络的案例适应。最后,以石化园区火灾爆炸事故的应急资源需求预测验证该方法的有效性。研究表明,该方法可以实时地对化工园区应急资源需求进行预测,为化工园区的应急资源储备和配置提供支持。     

Implementation of safety management systems in Hong Kong construction industry – A safety practitioner's perspective

IntroductionIn the 1980s, the safety management system (SMS) was introduced in the construction industry to mitigate against workplaces hazards, reduce the risk of injuries, and minimize property damage. Also, the Factories and Industrial Undertakings (Safety Management) Regulation was introduced on 24 November 1999 in Hong Kong to empower the mandatory implementation of a SMS in certain industries including building construction. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate the effectiveness of the SMS in improving construction safety and identify the factors that influence its implementation in Hong Kong.MethodA review of the current state-of-the-practice helped to establish the critical success factors (CSFs), benefits, and difficulties of implementing the SMS in the construction industry, while structured interviews were used to establish the key factors of the SMS implementation.ResultsResults of the state-of-the-practice review and structured interviews indicated that visible senior commitment, in terms of manpower and cost allocation, and competency of safety manager as key drivers for the SMS implementation. More so, reduced accident rates and accident costs, improved organization framework, and increased safety audit ratings were identified as core benefits of implementing the SMS. Meanwhile, factors such as insufficient resources, tight working schedule, and high labor turnover rate were the key challenges to the effective SMS implementation in Hong Kong.Practical applicationsThe findings of the study were consistent and indicative of the future development of safety management practice and the sustainable safety improvement of Hong Kong construction industry in the long run.     

高处坠落事故的人因失误与干预策略研究

为系统分析导致高处坠落人因事故的产生机理,通过统计152起建筑工程高处坠落事故的调查与分析报告,从组织影响、安全监管、不安全行为前提条件和不安全行为等4个层次,辨识影响高处坠落事故的人为失误因素,修订人为因素分析与分类系统框架（HFACS）。设计高处坠落人因失误调查问卷,开展一线高处作业人员问卷调查,建立高处坠落人因失误结构方程模型,对导致高处坠落事故的人为失误因素进行路径分析。结果表明:各潜在因素间均呈正相关,且高处坠落人因失误事故的关键路径为资源管理不到位→安全监督培训不充分→班组管理不良→操作违规。综合各因素间相关性,提出了针对性的预防高处坠落事故的人因干预策略。     

生产安全事故事件资源化利用措施研究

本文旨在实现对事故事件资源的最大化利用,以丰富日常安全监管方式,避免同类事故事件再次发生。通过系统分析决定生产安全事故事件可资源化利用的3个有利因素,提出以事故事件教训实施培训教育、根据事故事件发生原因制定管理措施和依据事故事件分布规律进行预警提示等3项措施,表明:事故事件案例对安全管理是一种重要资源,对实现安全生产具有极为重要、有效的作用。     

面向智慧城市的公共安全治理模式研究

针对我国公共安全治理中存在的单一主体、横向协作困难、资源分割等现实问题,基于智慧治理理念,构建面向智慧城市的公共安全治理模式,提出融合、协同、可持续的构建原则,从资源层、组织层和运行层等三个层面构建公共安全智慧治理模式,实现对传统公共安全治理模式的系统性、整体性优化,并从机构设置、职能定位、组织结构、资源配置、运行机制等方面提出具体优化建议,为提升智慧城市公共安全治理效能提供思路。     

Safety performance measurement in collectivized oil companies in China: Contribution of leading indicators to lagging indicators

With the collectivization of the Chinese oil industry, oil companies have been expanding in size. However, the intensified differences in the safety performance of subsidiaries have severely hindered the collaborative management of the headquarters. Understanding the safety status of each member is urgent for parent companies and their subsidiaries to identify gaps and make improvements. A unified set of safety performance indicators and a practical measurement tool are essential for the Chinese oil industry. Hence, this study identified a set of safety performance indicators encompassing both leading and lagging indicators using data envelopment analysis (DEA) and entropy weight method (EWM) to reveal the critical factors affecting the safety performance of the oil industry. A total of 300 front-line workers from eight subsidiaries of an oil company participated in the survey. The identified indicators were preliminarily weighted using EWM. Then, DEA was employed to measure the safety performance of the eight subsidiaries, demonstrating that management commitment was the most crucial factor in distinguishing safety performance; safety culture was more differentiated than risk management. Safety performance was not entirely positively correlated with safety investments, but the reasonable allocation of safety resources played a vital role. In addition, the weaknesses in each subsidiary's safety management were identified, and the quantitative effects of each leading indicator on safety performance were obtained.     

Investigating ethnic minorities' perceptions of safety climate in the construction industry

IntroductionAn increasing number of ethnic minorities (EMs) have been employed in the construction industry to alleviate severe labor shortages in many countries. Unfortunately, statistics show that EMs have higher fatal and non-fatal occupational injury rates than their local counterparts. However, EMs are often underrepresented in safety climate (SC) research as they are difficult to reach and gauge their perception. A positive relationship has been widely found between SC and safety performance. Understanding the safety perceptions of EMs helps to reduce injuries and improve their safety performance.MethodBased on a sample of 320 EMs from 20 companies in the construction industry, exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were used to identify the SC factors of EMs, and validate the extracted factors, respectively. Multivariate analysis of variance was undertaken to examine mean differences in perceptions of SC by personal characteristics.ResultsThree SC factors for EMs encapsulating 16 variables were identified through EFA. The hypothesized CFA model for a three-factor structure derived from EFA showed a satisfactory goodness-of-fit, composite reliability, and construct validity.ConclusionsThree SC factors were identified, namely: (a) safety management commitment, safety resources, and safety communication; (b) employee's involvement and workmate's influence; and (c) perception of safety rules, procedures and risks. The perceptions of SC differed significantly by nationality, marital status, the number of family members supported, and drinking habit.Practical applicationsThis study reveals the perception of EMs toward SC. The findings highlight the areas for safety improvement and provide leading indicators for safety performance of EMs. The findings are also enlightening for countries with a number of EMs, such as the United Sates, the United Kingdom, Australia, Singapore, and the Middle East.