Dynamic risk assessment using failure assessment and Bayesian theory

To ensure the safety of a process system, engineers use different methods to identify the potential hazards that may cause severe consequences. One of the most popular methods used is quantitative risk assessment (QRA) which quantifies the risk associated with a particular process activity. One of QRA's major disadvantages is its inability to update risk during the life of a process. As the process operates, abnormal events will result in incidents and near misses. These events are often called accident precursors. A conventional QRA process is unable to use the accident precursor information to revise the risk profile. To overcome this, a methodology has been proposed based on the work of Meel and Seider (2006). Similar to Meel and Seider (2006) work, this methodology uses Bayesian theory to update the likelihood of the event occurrence and also failure probability of the safety system. In this paper the proposed methodology is outlined and its application is demonstrated using a simple case study. First, potential accident scenarios are identified and represented in terms of an event tree, next, using the event tree and available failure data end-state probabilities are estimated. Subsequently, using the available accident precursor data, safety system failure likelihood and event tree end-state probabilities are revised. The methodology has been simulated using deterministic (point value) as well as probabilistic approach. This Methodology is applied to a case study demonstrating a storage tank containing highly hazardous chemicals. The comparison between conventional QRA and the results from dynamic failure assessment approach shows the significant deviation in system failure frequency throughout the life time of the process unit.     

Generic event trees and probabilities for the release of different types of hazardous materials

To simplify quantitative risk analysis, the initiating events leading to loss of containment are normally described using generic hypotheses. For example, the following hypothesis is applied to the loss of containment from a storage tank: instantaneous release of the complete inventory, continuous release of the complete inventory in 10 min, and continuous release from a hole with a diameter of 10 mm. Once the initiating events have been specified, the corresponding event trees must be drawn to establish the sequences from each initiating event to the diverse final outcomes or accident scenarios, which will depend on the properties of the released material or on other specific factors. In this paper we propose, in a systematic way, a set of short generic event trees for the main loss of containment scenarios involving different types of hazardous materials. Even though most of them have been taken from the literature (BEVI Reference Manual), we have modified some of them, added the corresponding intermediate probabilities (immediate ignition, delayed ignition, flame front acceleration, etc.) obtained from a literature review and expert judgment, and associated the use of each event tree to the hazardous properties of the material (flammability, volatility and toxicity) and to its category according to EC labeling directives.     

Class-2 hazmat transportation consequence assessment on surrounding population

The transportation of hazardous materials by road is an utmost necessity of the world for the societal benefits, but at the same time the activity is inherently dangerous. Incidents involving hazardous material (hazmat) cargo particularly the class-2 materials can lead to severe consequences in terms of fatalities, injuries, evacuation, property damage and environmental degradation. The rationale behind considering class-2 hazmats is that they pose the greatest danger to the people and property along the transport route because of their storage condition on the transport vessel. They are stored either in pressurized vessels or in cryogenic containers. Any external impact due to collision may cause catastrophic failure of transport vessels, known as BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion) with devastating consequences. Further, any continuous release from containment may cause what is known as ‘Unconfined Vapour Cloud Explosion’ (UVCE). Historically frequency of BLEVE occurrence is of the order of 1 × 10⁻⁶ per year or less, but other release scenarios e.g. a large vapour or liquid leaks are more probable and could also have devastating effects on the surrounding population. As such, the paper discussed various event scenarios and the consequences taking examples of a class-2.1 material (1,3 butadiene) and another class-2.3 (ammonia) hazmat. Comparative analysis suggests that per ton basis a rupture of ammonia tanker gives rise to larger impact areas and poses larger lethality risks compared to 1,3 butadiene as far as toxic effects are concerned. Besides, from fireball fatality on similar basis propylene causes higher consequence distance than LPG followed by ethylene oxide and 1,3 butadiene. The impact zone study results may be utilized as inputs for identifying the potential vulnerable area on a GIS enabled map, along a designated State highway route passing through an important industrial corridor in western India.     

Utilization of regression technique to develop a predictive model for hazard radius from release of typical methane-rich natural gas

The aim of hazardous area classification around equipment handling or storing of flammable fluids is to avoid the ignition of those releases that may occur from time to time in the operation of these equipment. There is a point source approach for the classification of hazardous areas which can estimate hazard radius by using hole size and release pressure. Methane-rich natural gas is widely used or produced in the process industries. Till date, there exist no reference that represents hazard radii for the wide range of possible hole sizes and release pressures of this fluid. The aim of the present study was to propose a predictive model for estimation of hazard radii due to releases of typical methane-rich natural gas based on hole size and release pressure. In this study, a complete database of hazard radii due to a broad range of hole sizes and release pressures was provided using available discharge and dispersion models. A regression-based model for estimation of hazard radii was developed based on the provided database. Performance investigation of the proposed model and a case study showed that the results are reliable with an acceptable standard error.     

Uncertainty reduction for improved mishap probability prediction: Application to level control of distillation unit

At all levels, the understanding of uncertainty associated with risk of major chemical industrial hazards should be enhanced. In this study, a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was performed for a knockout drum in the distillation unit of a refinery process and then probabilistic uncertainty analysis was applied for this QRA. A fault tree was developed to analyze the probability distribution of flammable liquid released from the overfilling of a knockout drum. Bayesian theory was used to update failure rates of the equipment so that generic information from databases and plant equipment real life data are combined to gain all available knowledge on component reliability. Using Monte Carlo simulation, the distribution of top event probability was obtained to characterize the uncertainty of the result. It was found that the uncertainty of basic event probabilities has a significant impact on the top event probability distribution. The top event probability prediction uncertainty profile showed that the risk estimation is improved by reducing uncertainty through Bayesian updating on the basic event probability distributions. The whole distribution of top event probability replaces point value in a risk matrix to guide decisions employing all of the available information rather than only point mean values as in the conventional approach. The resulting uncertainty guides where more information or uncertainty reduction is needed to avoid overlap with intolerable risk levels.     

A new approach for facility siting using mapping risks on a plant grid area and optimization

The present work is focused on developing a methodology to find the optimal placement of a hazardous process unit and other facilities using optimization theory while considering a risk map in the plant area. Incidents can have possible consequences resulting from flammable gas releases, which can be evaluated by using consequence modeling programs. The probability of each incident can be derived from initial leak hole size estimation through event tree analysis. In this methodology the plant area was divided into square grids and risk scores were estimated for each grid. The overall cost is a function of the probable cost of property damage due to fires or explosions and the interconnection cost including piping, cable, and management. The proposed approach uses a mixed integer linear optimization programming (MILP) that identifies attractive locations by minimizing the overall cost. A case study is presented for a hexane–heptane separation facility that considers the meteorological data for the given area in order to show the applicability of the proposed methodology. Results from this study will be useful in assisting the selection of locations for facilities and for risk management.     

Modelling of BP Texas City refinery accident using dynamic risk assessment approach

Process industries involve handling of hazardous substances which on release may potentially cause catastrophic consequences in terms of assets lost, human fatalities or injuries and loss of public confidence of the company. In spite of using endless end-of-the-pipe safety systems, tragic accidents such as BP Texas City refinery still occur. One of the main reasons of such rare but catastrophic events is lack of effective monitoring and modelling approaches that provide early warnings and help to prevent such event. To develop a predictive model one has to rely on past occurrence data, as such events are rare, enough data are usually not available to better understand and model such behavior. In such situations, it is advisable to use near misses and incident data to predict system performance and estimate accident likelihood. This paper is an attempt to demonstrate testing and validation of one such approach, dynamic risk assessment, using data from the BP Texas City refinery incident.Dynamic risk assessment is a novel approach which integrates Bayesian failure updating mechanism with the consequence assessment. The implementation of this methodology to the BP Texas City incident proves that the approach has the ability to learn from near misses, incident, past accidents and predict event occurrence likelihood in the next time interval.     

Modeling of BP Texas City refinery incident

This paper presents detailed modeling results of the BP Texas City refinery incident. Three different approaches and explosion modeling tools were used to study the event. The results predicted by all three approaches are similar and all approaches identified a hazard potential comparable to what was witnessed on March 23, 2005. This confirms that quantitative risk assessment (QRA) has the ability to model a realistic scenario, and is therefore useful in safety measure design and emergency preparedness decision making to improve overall safety performance. Had QRA been conducted during a management of change (MOC) decision-making process, personnel trailers likely would not have been sited in such close proximity to the process units. The resulting severe consequences would then not have occurred. This work also aims to emphasize the importance of QRA in process safety management.

The paper presents the authors’ perception of the sequence of events involved in the incident based on the published literature available at the time of writing. It also assesses potential consequences for the perceived sequence of events using a variety of consequence assessment tools. In doing so, the analysis illustrates how this incident could have been prevented in spite of many operational difficulties. The observations and commentary presented in this paper are intended solely for the purpose of process safety enhancement on the basis of the lessons learned. BP has published its own detailed report; the incident is also the subject of a recent investigation by the US Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board, with the CSB's final report being available at http://www.csb.gov/index.cfm?folder=completed_investigations&page=info&INV_ID=52 (as of April 2007).     

天然气管道不同孔径泄漏失效概率量化方法研究*

为研究不同孔径泄漏下天然气管道失效概率,首先基于EGIG数据库和UKOPA数据库天然气管道历史失效数据,计算由不同失效原因导致3种孔径泄漏所占比例;然后将我国管道各原因基础失效概率按照对应比例分别进行修正,获得较适用于我国天然气管道特点的不同孔径泄漏基础失效概率;最后分别考虑第三方破坏、腐蚀、施工缺陷/材料失效、误操作、自然力破坏5种失效原因,完成对天然气管道不同孔径泄漏基础失效概率的修正计算。研究结果表明:小孔泄漏、中孔泄漏和破裂泄漏的基础失效概率分别为0.173,0.128,0.048次/（103 km·a）;修正因子包括管径、埋深、壁厚、管龄、防腐层类型、管道所处区域,上述因子能够满足不同场景下天然气管道失效概率的修正计算;概率量化方法综合考虑失效原因、泄漏孔径以及管道本体信息,能够定量化预测天然气管道失效概率,为天然气管道定量风险评价提供数据支撑。     

Laminar jet modelling for hazardous area classification

A previous article dealt with turbulent jet flow modelling with the aim at developing a method for estimating the size of explosive clouds following a high Reynolds number release, within hazardous area classification scheme. The results have demonstrated that the standard EN 60079-10 (2009) largely overestimates the real size of clouds resulting from a piping or a vessel leak. On the other hand, laminar jets are possible also at moderately high Reynolds numbers; furthermore, a reduced momentum, typical of laminar jets, is often assumed in QRA studies, as a conservative assumption, due to the expected lower air entrainment and to the corresponding larger size of the flammable cloud volume. These considerations have suggested the suitability to extend the previous analysis also to laminar regime, taking into account the effect of density and viscosity differences between air and flammable gas.     

Methodology for selecting hole sizes for consequence studies

Predicting release rates is the first step, and a crucial step, in consequence analysis. When the release is from an isolated volume of vessel and/or piping, the release rate decreases with time. There is often debate about what equivalent hole sizes should be used for a consequence study, and usually a range of hole sizes (3–4 values) is examined.This paper shows the effect of hole size on the ultimate impact of hydrocarbon releases for several scenarios and the methodology to select them. The impact depends on the intensity and exposure time. The intensity for a fire is the thermal radiation level, and that for an unignited release is the gas concentration. As the release rate decreases with time, so does the intensity. Probit functions describe the probability of a given impact based on the time-varying intensity. For a number of example scenarios, the predictions show that the worst-case hole size is an intermediate hole size, i.e., the impact goes through a maximum with increasing hole size. For smaller holes, the event is small enough that its impact is low even though the duration is long. For larger holes, the initial event is large but decreases so rapidly that the impact is low. For the intermediate hole, the event is large enough, and the duration long enough, to cause the greatest impact.This consequence study was made evaluating hole sizes with diameters between 5 and 400 mm in a fixed volume upstream process vessel. Worst case scenario consequence predictions for fire damages, effects on people and toxic releases were determined to be somewhat different for different hole sizes. However, hole sizes in the 30 mm–90 mm range seems to have the highest impact in dry gas service.     

定量风险评价（QRA）中的危险辨识方法

危险辨识是进行定量风险评价（QRA）的关键步骤，QRA分析区域内的危险设备设施可能很多，但并不是每台设备设施都一定要包含并进行定量风险计算，这不仅涉及到QRA的效率和成本问题，也涉及到评价结论准确性、安全投入有效性等问题。本文简要介绍并比较了欧盟ARAMIS和挪威Purple book中推介的2种危险辨识方法，有助于国内QRA分析人员参照比较及提升QRA分析的一致性。     

Simplified expression for estimating release rate of hazardous gas from a hole on high-pressure pipelines

In the present paper, a simplified expression for estimating release rates of hazardous gas from a hole on high-pressure pipelines is proposed. It consists of the size of the hole, dimensionless pipeline length, the specific heat ratio of the gas and the frictional force, etc. Taking the 1st order approximation for kinetic energy of the flowing liquid, the new expression results in only 7% deviation from the theoretical complex equations. The deviation reduces to zero when the release point approaches to the reservoir.     

Operational risk assessment: A case of the Bhopal disaster

Accidental releases of hazardous chemicals from process facilities can cause catastrophic consequences. The Bhopal disaster resulting from a combination of inherently unsafe designs and poorly managed operations is a well-known case. Effective risk modeling approaches that provide early warnings are helpful to prevent and control such rare but catastrophic events. Probability estimation of these events is a constant challenge due to the scarcity of directly relevant data. Therefore, precursor-based methods that adopt the Bayesian theorem to update prior judgments on event probabilities using empirical data have been proposed. The updated probabilities are then integrated with consequences of varying severity to produce the risk profile.This paper proposes an operational risk assessment framework, in which a precursor-based Bayesian network approach is used for probability estimation, and loss functions are applied for consequence assessment. The estimated risk profile can be updated continuously given real-time operational data. As process facilities operate, this method integrates a failure-updating mechanism with potential consequences to generate a real-time operational risk profile. The real time risk profile is valuable in activating accident prevention and control strategies. The approach is applied to the Bhopal accident to demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness.     

Confidence-based quantitative risk analysis for offshore accidental hydrocarbon release events

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) has been widely used to conduct the assessment of offshore accidental risks. However, the accuracy and validity of QRA is significantly affected by uncertainties when subjective judgments are involved. Therefore, it is unrealistic to determine the probability of a hazardous event by using one single explicit value when safety experts have a relatively low confidence level in their judgments. This paper proposes a new methodology for incorporating uncertainties into conventional QRA using the concept of confidence level. Offshore hydrocarbon release hazards are focused on and a barrier and operational risk analysis (BORA-Release) method is selected as the basic model to illustrate the proposed methodology. A left–right (L–R) bell-shaped fuzzy number is employed and its membership curve is able to control its shape to represent different confidence levels. As to the complex geometry of the bell-shaped fuzzy number, an α-cut operation is introduced to conduct the arithmetic operations of the fuzzy number, and a defuzzification method with total integral value is chosen to match the α-cut operations and acquire complete information for the fuzzy numbers. In the meantime, an optimism index is used to describe the attitude of the decision-maker. One case study is provided in this paper to demonstrate the implementation of this method.     

油气泄漏火灾下FPSO热-结构耦合分析

针对FPSO油气泄漏引发的火灾风险,建立热-结构耦合分析模型,采用ANSYS Workbench软件对工艺区设备泄漏、火灾事故及灾害下结构响应进行数值模拟,重点分析工艺处理模块Ⅰ区设备温度分布及热变形情况。通过对比不同油气泄漏速率和环境风速下火灾发展、危害范围和结构受损程度,探讨油气泄漏孔孔径和风速对火灾后果的影响。结果表明:稳定发展火灾下工艺处理模块Ⅰ区设备周围环境维持高温状态;泄漏孔附近结构受损最严重,原油热处理器受火灾损害发生大的变形;随泄漏孔孔径增大,火灾危害范围扩大,结构发生大变形的区域增大,d=40 mm时原油热处理器受损最严重,d=60mm时结构受损区域最大,大部分结构受损程度加剧;来风风速的变大使得火灾更加剧烈,设备受损区域扩大,受损程度加剧,结构火灾风险加大。     

Consequence modeling of explosion at Azad-Shahr CNG refueling station

Safety of people has been the most important concern since the onset of commercial use of Compressed Natural Gas¹ as a novel type of vehicle fuel. Provided a car vessel bursts, irreversible consequences will surface. The most important hazard threatening people and their properties in CNG distribution stations is pressurized natural gas in station storage vessels and car vessels. Storage vessels are far from people; however, they may damage other properties such as pipes, valves, electrical equipment, and etc. Owing to the distance between storage vessels and the hive, the risk is not considered a big concern; on the contrary, car storage vessel is very close to the passengers sitting in the car and those standing around the car. The proximity heightens the risk as the consequences caused by vessel burst can be more catastrophic than the former condition. Taken together, the car CNG vessel burst may be regarded as the most hazardous event at CNG distribution centers. It is believed that modeling the mentioned events can illustrate risky conditions. The present study was formulated in order to model one of such accidents occurring in Azad-Shahr in the winter 2010. The obtained results provided useful points and recommendations like the minimum safe distance from rupture center depending on such outcomes as overpressure, types of fire, or toxic release. The recommendations provided by the present study can prevent people from calamitous events and they can be adopted so as to reduce severity of possible events.     

What you don’t manage will leak: A tribute to Trevor Kletz

This paper expands on a simple concept shared with us over three decades ago by Trevor Kletz: what you don’t have can’t leak. Despite many efforts at eliminating hazards through inherently safer process methodologies, as encouraged by Kletz and others, the reality is that the use of hazardous materials and processes is still quite common. Therefore, we consider those processes that still handle hazardous materials – the cases where what you do not manage will leak and may cause a fire, explosion or toxic release. Our intended audience is quite broad. As Kletz has noted over the years, it is not just the people running a process who are responsible for its safety, but also those who make decisions on its design, operation, maintenance, staffing, etc. We hope that this paper contributes to an understanding of why we continue to have hazardous materials leak, potentially leading to accidents that cause fatalities, serious injuries, property damage, and environmental harm.We expand on the fundamental equation for risk, a function of both the frequency and the consequence of a possible event, by considering the effects of poor operational discipline on risk, and ultimately, on the possible leak or release of the hazardous material. Continued safe operation involving hazardous materials depends on and is sustained by the operational discipline of everyone involved in the design of processes and their continuing operation and maintenance. What we do not manage will leak and therein lays the fundamental challenge that Kletz continues to emphasize today.     

Integrated dynamic risk assessment of buried gas pipeline leakages in urban areas

In urban areas, buried gas pipeline leakages could potentially cause numerous casualties and massive damage. Traditional static analysis and dynamic probability-based quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methods have been widely used in various industries. However, dynamic QRA methods combined with probability and consequence are rarely used to evaluate gas pipelines buried in urban areas. Therefore, an integrated dynamic risk assessment approach was proposed. First, a failure rate calculation of buried gas pipelines was performed, where the corrosion failure rate dependent on time was calculated by integrating the subset simulation method. The relationship between failure probability and failure rate was considered, and a mechanical analysis model considering the corrosion growth model and multiple loads was used. The time-independent failure rates were calculated by the modification factor methods. Next, the overall evolution process from pipeline failures to accidents was proposed, with the accident rates subsequently updated. Then, the consequences of buried gas pipeline accidents corresponding to the accident types in the evolution process were modeled and analyzed. Finally, based on the above research, dynamic calculation and assessment methods for evaluating individual and social risks were established, and an overall application example was provided to demonstrate the capacity of the proposed approach. A reliable and practical theoretical basis and supporting information are provided for the integrity and emergency management of buried gas pipelines in urban areas, considering actual operational conditions.     

Risk evaluation in Dutch land-use planning

In Dutch external safety policy, the acceptance of risk for the population in areas surrounding hazardous substances establishments is based on a limit value for individual risk (IR). Additionally, changes to societal risk (SR) must be justified. A specific software program (SAFETI-NL) with the associated Reference Manual Bevi Risk Assessments (RIVM, 2009) is legally required for the calculation of IR and SR. This prescribed “Bevi calculation method” forms the basis for decisions with important consequences for industry, land use planning and the protection of citizens. It is important that the outcome of calculations made with the prescribed method can be relied upon when making decisions about land use planning that affects both industry and population. This is the subject of this paper.The prescribed calculation method has been evaluated by performing a case study. The evaluation focussed on risk modelling of a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE) at an LPG filling station, an incident type that plays a significant role in Dutch external safety. The risk modelling of the BLEVE with the prescribed calculation method was found to have a number of serious deficiencies. It is concluded that the prescribed calculation method yields no reliable perspective on the safety of production, use and storage of hazardous substances, nor of possibilities to increase safety.Decision making should not only depend on quantification of IR and SR. Improving the safety-relevance of the prescribed calculation method requires an increase of the number of dimensions of the outcome of risk calculations in order to make feedback possible. It is recommended to incorporate additional, safety-relevant information into planning and decision-making processes. It is envisaged that a more far-reaching change of Dutch QRA practice is needed (medium to long term). In this context, a number of interesting elements have been noticed in decision-making procedures in other EU Member States.