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1.

Introduction

This study presents a classification tree based alternative to crash frequency analysis for analyzing crashes on mid-block segments of multilane arterials.

Method

The traditional approach of modeling counts of crashes that occur over a period of time works well for intersection crashes where each intersection itself provides a well-defined unit over which to aggregate the crash data. However, in the case of mid-block segments the crash frequency based approach requires segmentation of the arterial corridor into segments of arbitrary lengths. In this study we have used random samples of time, day of week, and location (i.e., milepost) combinations and compared them with the sample of crashes from the same arterial corridor. For crash and non-crash cases, geometric design/roadside and traffic characteristics were derived based on their milepost locations. The variables used in the analysis are non-event specific and therefore more relevant for roadway safety feature improvement programs. First classification tree model is a model comparing all crashes with the non-crash data and then four groups of crashes (rear-end, lane-change related, pedestrian, and single-vehicle/off-road crashes) are separately compared to the non-crash cases. The classification tree models provide a list of significant variables as well as a measure to classify crash from non-crash cases. ADT along with time of day/day of week are significantly related to all crash types with different groups of crashes being more likely to occur at different times.

Conclusions

From the classification performance of different models it was apparent that using non-event specific information may not be suitable for single vehicle/off-road crashes.

Impact on Industry

The study provides the safety analysis community an additional tool to assess safety without having to aggregate the corridor crash data over arbitrary segment lengths.  相似文献   

2.
Electronic Stability Control (ESC) was introduced on the mass market in 1998. Since then, several studies showing the positive effects of ESC have been presented. OBJECTIVE: In this study, data from crashes occurring in Sweden during 1998 to 2004 were used to evaluate the effectiveness of ESC on real life crashes. The effectiveness was analyzed for different road conditions, and some accident types and injury levels. METHODS: The study used statistical analysis. To control for exposure, induced exposure methods were used, where ESC-sensitive to ESC-insensitive crashes and road conditions were matched in relation to cars equipped with and without ESC. Cars of similar or, in some cases, identical make and model were used to isolate the role of ESC. RESULTS: The study shows a positive and consistent effect of ESC overall and in circumstances where the road has low friction. The overall effectiveness on all injury crash types, except rear end crashes, was 16.7 +/- 9.3%, while for serious and fatal crashes; the effectiveness was 21.6 +/- 12.8%. The corresponding estimates for crashes with injured car occupants were 23.0 +/- 9.2% and 26.9 +/- 13.9%.For serious and fatal loss-of-control type crashes on wet roads the effectiveness was 56.2 +/- 23.5% and for roads covered with ice or snow the effectiveness was 49.2 +/- 30.2%. It was estimated that for Sweden, with a total of 500 vehicle related deaths annually, that 80-100 fatalities could be saved annually if all cars had ESC.CONCLUSIONS: ESC was found to reduce crashes with personal injuries, especially serious and fatal injuries. The effectiveness ranged from at least 13% for car occupants in all types of crashes with serious or fatal outcome to a minimum of 35% effectiveness for single/oncoming/overtaking serious and fatal crashes on wet or icy road surface. No difference in deformation pattern was found for cars with or without ESC.  相似文献   

3.
This paper describes a case study in Flanders–Belgium on the reporting rate of road crashes. Crash data from three sources were compared: official crash data, data retrieved from an insurance company and newspaper articles. A sample of 140 injury crashes with motorcyclists from an insurance company was used as the reference category. The purpose was to explore factors that contribute to the likelihood of crashes (not) to be reported in official statistics and newspapers. Logistic regression analyses and chi-square tests were used to reveal differences in reporting rate according to some variables. About 80% of the crashes with severe injuries were reported in the official statistics whereas the reporting rate for crashes with slightly injured was about 55%. Newspapers covered about 50% of crashes with severe injuries. The reporting rate in both official statistics and newspapers increased with the severity of the crash.  相似文献   

4.
Introduction: Buses are different vehicles in terms of dimensions, maneuverability, and driver's vision. Although bus traveling is a safe mode to travel, the number of annual bus crashes cannot be neglected. Moreover, limited studies have been conducted on the bus involved in fatal crashes. Therefore, identification of the contributing factors in the bus involved fatal crashes can reduce the risk of fatality. Method: Data set of bus involved crashes in the State of Victoria, Australia was analyzed over the period of 2006–2019. Clustering of crash data was accomplished by dividing them into homogeneous categories, and by implementing association rules discovery on the clusters, the factors affecting fatality in bus involved crashes were extracted. Results: Clustering results show bus crashes with all vehicles except motor vehicles and weekend crashes have a high rate of fatality. According to the association rule discovery findings, the factors that increase the risk of bus crashes with non-motor vehicles are: old bus driver, collision with pedestrians at signalized intersections, and the presence of vulnerable road users. Likewise, factors that increase the risk of fatality in bus involved crashes on weekends are: darkness of roads in high-speed zones, pedestrian presence at highways, bus crashes with passenger car by a female bus driver, and the occurrence of multi-vehicle crashes in high-speed zones. Practical Applications: The study provides a sequential pattern of factors, named rules that lead to fatality in bus involved crashes. By eliminating or improving one or all of the factors involved in rules, fatal bus crashes may be prevented. The recommendations to reduce fatality in bus crashes are: observing safe distances with the buses, using road safety campaigns to reduce pedestrians’ distracted behavior, improving the lighting conditions, implementing speed bumps and rumble strips in high-speed zones, installing pedestrian detection systems on buses and setting special bus lanes in crowded areas.  相似文献   

5.
Objective: The objective of this study was to identify the prevalence and potential risk factors of farm vehicle–related road traffic crashes among farm vehicle drivers in southern China.

Methods: A cross-sectional study was used to interview 1,422 farm vehicle drivers in southern China. Farm vehicle–related road traffic crashes that occurred from December 2013 to November 2014 were investigated. Data on farm vehicle–related road traffic crashes and related factors were collected by face-to-face interviews.

Results: The prevalence of farm vehicle–related road traffic crashes among the investigated drivers was 7.2%. Farm vehicle–related road traffic crashes were significantly associated with self-reported vision problem (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 6.48, 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.86–10.87), self-reported sleep disorders (AOR = 10.03, 95% CI, 6.28–15.99), self-reported stress (AOR = 20.47, 95% CI, 9.96–42.08), reported history of crashes (AOR = 5.40, 95% CI, 3.47–8.42), reported history of drunk driving (AOR = 5.07, 95% CI, 2.97–8.65), and reported history of fatigued driving (AOR = 5.72, 95% CI, 3.73–8.78). The number of road traffic crashes was highest in the daytime and during harvest season. In over 96% of farm vehicle–related road traffic crashes, drivers were believed to be responsible for the crash. Major crash-causing factors included improper driving, careless driving, violating of traffic signals or signs, and being in the wrong lane.

Conclusion: Findings of this study suggest that farm vehicle–related road traffic crashes have become a burgeoning public health problem in China. Programs need to be developed to prevent farm vehicle–related road traffic crashes in this emerging country.  相似文献   


6.
7.
BACKGROUND: Road-traffic crashes and fatalities constitute major social and economic issues in South Africa. They are a major cause of morbidity and mortality comparable to HIV/AIDS, homicides, and some chronic diseases. METHODS: Road-traffic accident data for the year 2003 obtained from the Department of Transport, Pretoria, South Africa were used for this study. The valuation of the costs of road-traffic crashes and fatalities in South Africa is based on the gross output or human capital approach. RESULTS: 10,197 fatal road crashes and 12,353 fatalities were reported during the study period. More than 50% of the fatal road crashes and fatalities occurred in only three out of 11 provinces. The Northern Cape, which is the least populated province, had the highest fatal road crashes per 100,000 population and fatalities per 100,000 population. The number of road-traffic fatalities in the rural areas was 2.7 times that in the urban areas. The total costs of the road-traffic fatalities which was about R 8 billion (>US$ 1 billion) is about 0.6% of the country's nominal GDP for 2003. 60% of the cases and costs of road-traffic fatalities involved persons aged 20-39 years, although this age group is only 27% of the country's population. The rural areas accounted for 73% and the urban areas 27% of the total costs of fatal road-traffic crashes. CONCLUSION: Those living in the rural areas of the South African society and those aged 20-49 years constitute high-risk groups of road-traffic crashes and fatalities. They are also responsible for most of the attendant costs of fatal crashes and fatalities in the country.  相似文献   

8.
PROBLEM: This study assesses the impact of crash and casualty numbers in correspondence to the introduction of mobile speed cameras in the rural county of Norfolk, England. METHOD: Road traffic accident casualty and crash data were collected for two years before the introduction of cameras and two years subsequently. The casualties and crashes occurring at 29 camera sites were identified and separated from those occurring in the rest of the county. Trends in crashes and casualties, and their severity, were examined graphically and comparisons were made between before and after periods. The regression to the mean effect at individual sites was estimated. RESULTS: After the introduction of cameras, overall crashes declined by 1% and crashes involving fatalities or serious injuries declined by 9% on the roads without cameras. At the camera sites, crashes decreased by 19% and fatal and serious crashes by 44%. The reduction in total crashes was significantly greater than that expected from the effect of regression to the mean in 12 out of 20 sites tested. SUMMARY: The introduction of cameras appears to have resulted in real and measurable reductions in crash risk in this rural county. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Our results suggest the deployment of mobile speed cameras is an effective tool for organizations wishing to reduce road traffic casualties in areas where high crash rates have been associated with excessive vehicle speeds.  相似文献   

9.
Introduction: The pedestrian hybrid beacon (PHB) is a traffic control device used at pedestrian crossings. A recent Arizona Department of Transportation research effort investigated changes in crashes for different severity levels and crash types (e.g., rear-end crashes) due to the PHB presence, as well as for crashes involving pedestrians and bicycles. Method: Two types of methodologies were used to evaluate the safety of PHBs: (a) an Empirical Bayes (EB) before-after study, and (b) a long-term cross-sectional observational study. For the EB before-after evaluation, the research team considered three reference groups: unsignalized intersections, signalized intersections, and both unsignalized and signalized intersections combined. Results: For the signalized and combined unsignalized and signalized intersection groups, all crash types considered showed statistically significant reductions in crashes (e.g., total crashes, fatal and injury crashes, rear-end crashes, fatal and injury rear-end crashes, angle crashes, fatal and injury angle crashes, pedestrian-related crashes, and fatal and injury pedestrian-related crashes). A cross-sectional study was conducted with a larger number of PHBs (186) to identify relationships between roadway characteristics and crashes at PHBs, especially with respect to the distance to an adjacent traffic control signal. The distance to an adjacent traffic signal was found to be significant only at the α = 0.1 level, and only for rear-end and fatal and injury rear-end crashes. Conclusions: This analysis represents the largest known study to date on the safety impacts of PHBs, along with a focus on how crossing and geometric characteristics affect crash patterns. The study showed the safety benefits of PHBs for both pedestrians and vehicles. Practical Applications: The findings from this study clearly support the installation of PHBs at midblock or intersection crossings, as well as at crossings on higher-speed roads.  相似文献   

10.
Introduction: Alcohol-related impairment is a key contributing factor in traffic crashes. However, only a few studies have focused on pedestrian impairment as a crash characteristic. In Louisiana, pedestrian fatalities have been increasing. From 2010 to 2016, the number of pedestrian fatalities increased by 62%. A total of 128 pedestrians were killed in traffic crashes in 2016, and 34.4% of those fatalities involved pedestrians under the influence (PUI) of drugs or alcohol. Furthermore, alcohol-PUI fatalities have increased by 120% from 2010 to 2016. There is a vital need to examine the key contributing attributes that are associated with a high number of PUI crashes. Method: In this study, the research team analyzed Louisiana’s traffic crash data from 2010 to 2016 by applying correspondence regression analysis to identify the key contributing attributes and association patterns based on PUI involved injury levels. Results: The findings identified five risk clusters: intersection crashes at business/industrial locations, mid-block crashes on undivided roadways at residential and business/residential locations, segment related crashes associated with a pedestrian standing in the road, open country crashes with no lighting at night, and pedestrian violation related crashes on divided roadways. The association maps identified several critical attributes that are more associated with fatal and severe PUI crashes. These attributes are dark to no lighting, open country roadways, and non-intersection locations. Practical Applications: The findings of this study may be used to help design effective mitigation strategies to reduce PUI crashes.  相似文献   

11.
12.
INTRODUCTION: This study was designed to explore the temporal aspects of crashes for probationary and non-probationary drivers. METHODS: Data from the West Australian Road Injury Database from 1996-2000 were used to calculate age-sex-specific crash rates per 100,000 person-days and to plot proportions of fatal and hospital crashes by time for probationary and non-probationary drivers. The population attributable risk was used to estimate the potential number of lives saved by nighttime driving restriction in the probationary period. RESULTS: Probationary drivers were seven times more likely to crash than non-probationary drivers. While the highest number of crashes was in the daytime, probationary drivers had a higher proportion of fatal or hospitalization crashes at night than non-probationary drivers. CONCLUSION: Restrictions on driving at night could form part of graduated driver training. Even if some probationary drivers disobeyed the restriction, a substantial reduction in car occupant fatalities and hospitalizations could result.  相似文献   

13.
ObjectivesThe main objective of this paper is to investigate whether real-time traffic flow data, collected from loop detectors and radar sensors on freeways, can be used to predict crashes occurring at reduced visibility conditions. In addition, it examines the difference between significant factors associated with reduced visibility related crashes to those factors correlated with crashes occurring at clear visibility conditions.MethodRandom Forests and matched case-control logistic regression models were estimated.ResultsThe findings indicated that real-time traffic variables can be used to predict visibility related crashes on freeways. The results showed that about 69% of reduced visibility related crashes were correctly identified. The results also indicated that traffic flow variables leading to visibility related crashes are slightly different from those variables leading to clear visibility crashes.Impact on IndustryUsing time slices 5–15 minutes before crashes might provide an opportunity for the appropriate traffic management centers for a proactive intervention to reduce crash risk in real-time.  相似文献   

14.
Introduction: Motorcyclists are exposed to more fatalities and severe injuries per mile of travel as compared to other vehicle drivers. Moreover, crashes that take place at intersections are more likely to result in serious or fatal injuries as compared to those that occur at non-intersections. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the contributing factors to motorcycle crash severity at intersections. Method: A data set of 7,714 motorcycle crashes at intersections in the State of Victoria, Australia was analyzed over the period of 2006–2018. The multinomial logit model was used for evaluating the motorcycle crashes. The severity of motorcycle crashes was divided into three categories: minor injury, serious injury and fatal injury. The risk factors consisted of four major categories: motorcyclist characteristics, environmental characteristics, intersection characteristics and crash characteristics. Results: The results of the model demonstrated that certain factors increased the probability of fatal injuries. These factors were: motorcyclists aged over 59 years, weekend crashes, midnight/early morning crashes, morning rush hours crashes, multiple vehicles involved in the crash, t-intersections, crashes in towns, crashes in rural areas, stop or give-way intersections, roundabouts, and uncontrolled intersections. By contrast, factors such as female motorcyclists, snowy or stormy or foggy weather, rainy weather, evening rush hours crashes, and unpaved roads reduced the probability of fatal injuries. Practical Applications: The results from our study demonstrated that certain treatment measures for t-intersections may reduce the probability of fatal injuries. An effective way for improving the safety of stop or give-way intersections and uncontrolled intersections could be to convert them to all-way stop controls. Further, it is recommended to educate the older riders that with ageing, there are physiological changes that occur within the body which can increase both crash likelihood and injury severity.  相似文献   

15.
Problem: Motor-vehicle crash rate comparisons by age and gender usually are based on the extent to which drivers in a particular age/gender category are themselves injured or involved in crashes (e.g., the number of 20-year-old females in crashes). Basing comparisons instead on the extent to which drivers in various age/gender groups are responsible for deaths (including themselves) in their crashes is more revealing of their overall contribution to the problem. Methods: Data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS, 1996–2000) were used in the analysis, which was based on crashes that involved one or two vehicles only. Drivers in fatal single-vehicle crashes were assumed to have responsibility for the crash. In fatal two-vehicle crashes, driver operator errors reported by police were used to assign crash responsibility. Results: When all crashes were considered, both the youngest and oldest drivers were most likely to be responsible for deaths in their crashes. In two-vehicle crashes, the oldest drivers were more likely than young drivers to be responsible. Young males were more likely than young females to be responsible for crash deaths, whereas females in their 50s and older were more likely than same-age males to be responsible. In terms of responsibility for deaths per licensed driver, young drivers, especially males, had the highest rates because of their high involvement rates and high responsibility rates. The majority of deaths for which young drivers were responsible occurred to people other than themselves, especially passengers in their vehicles, whereas the bulk of the deaths for which older drivers were responsible were their own. Discussion: The results highlight the contribution of young drivers to the motor-vehicle crash problem, the need for measures such as passenger restrictions in graduated licensing systems, and the need for vehicle modifications to better protect older occupants.  相似文献   

16.
Objective: This article estimates the safety potential of a current commercially available connected vehicle technology in real-world crashes.

Method: Data from the Centre for Automotive Safety Research's at-scene in-depth crash investigations in South Australia were used to simulate the circumstances of real-world crashes. A total of 89 crashes were selected for inclusion in the study. The crashes were selected as representative of the most prevalent crash types for injury or fatal crashes and had potential to be mitigated by connected vehicle technology. The trajectory, speeds, braking, and impact configuration of the selected in-depth cases were replicated in a software package and converted to a file format allowing “replay” of the scenario in real time as input to 2 Cohda Wireless MK2 onboard units. The Cohda Wireless onboard units are a mature connected vehicle technology that has been used in both the German simTD field trial and the U.S. Department of Transport's Safety Pilot project and have been tuned for low false alarm rates when used in the real world. The crash replay was achieved by replacing each of the onboard unit Global Positioning System (GPS) inputs with the simulated data of each of the involved vehicles. The time at which the Cohda Wireless threat detection software issued an elevated warning was used to calculate a new impact speed using 3 different reaction scenarios and 2 levels of braking.

Results: It was found that between 37 and 86% of the simulated crashes could be avoided, with highest percentage due a fully autonomous system braking at 0.7 g. The same system also reduced the impact speed relative to the actual crash in all cases. Even when a human reaction time of 1.2 s and moderate braking of 0.4 g was assumed, the impact speed was reduced in 78% of the crashes. Crash types that proved difficult for the threat detection engine were head-on crashes where the approach angle was low and right turn–opposite crashes.

Conclusions: These results indicate that connected vehicle technology can be greatly beneficial in real-world crash scenarios and that this benefit would be maximized by having the vehicle intervene autonomously with heavy braking. The crash types that proved difficult for the connected vehicle technology could be better addressed if controller area network (CAN) information is available, such as steering wheel angle, so that driver intent can be inferred sooner. More accurate positioning in the real world (e.g., combining satellite positioning and accelerometer data) would allow the technology to be more effective for near-collinear head-on and rear-end crashes, because the low approach angles that are common in such crashes are currently ignored in order to minimize false alarms due to positioning uncertainty.  相似文献   

17.
IntroductionThe objective of this research is to investigate the effects of monthly weather conditions on traffic crash experience on freeways, considering the interactions between weather, traffic volumes, and roadway conditions. Methods: Data from the state of Connecticut from 2011to 2015 were used. Random parameters negative binomial models with first-order, autoregressive covariance were estimated for representative types of freeway crashes (front-to-rear, sideswipe-same-direction, and fixed-object), most severe crashes (i.e., fatal and injury crashes), and non-injury crashes (i.e., property-damage-only crashes). Results: Major findings are that variations in monthly traffic volumes, roadway geometry, and weather conditions explain much of the variations in monthly traffic crashes. Time effects exist in the panel monthly data for all types of crashes. Taking into account this effect improves model prediction results. When the raw weather measures are highly correlated, using dimension reduction techniques helps to extract more interpretable weather factors. By considering the interaction effects between roadway condition variables, additional findings were found. In general, lower temperature, more heavy fog days, decreased precipitation, lower wind speed, higher monthly traffic volumes, and narrower inside shoulder were found to be associated with higher monthly crashes. The effects of area type and outside shoulder width change dramatically as the number of through lanes changes. Practical applications: The findings of this research could help researchers and general readers gain a better understanding of the effects of monthly weather conditions and other roadway factors on freeway crashes and give engineers practical guidelines on improving freeway safety.  相似文献   

18.
Objective: The objective of this article is to provide empirical evidence for safe speed limits that will meet the objectives of the Safe System by examining the relationship between speed limit and injury severity for different crash types, using police-reported crash data.

Method: Police-reported crashes from 2 Australian jurisdictions were used to calculate a fatal crash rate by speed limit and crash type. Example safe speed limits were defined using threshold risk levels.

Results: A positive exponential relationship between speed limit and fatality rate was found. For an example fatality rate threshold of 1 in 100 crashes it was found that safe speed limits are 40 km/h for pedestrian crashes; 50 km/h for head-on crashes; 60 km/h for hit fixed object crashes; 80 km/h for right angle, right turn, and left road/rollover crashes; and 110 km/h or more for rear-end crashes.

Conclusions: The positive exponential relationship between speed limit and fatal crash rate is consistent with prior research into speed and crash risk. The results indicate that speed zones of 100 km/h or more only meet the objectives of the Safe System, with regard to fatal crashes, where all crash types except rear-end crashes are exceedingly rare, such as on a high standard restricted access highway with a safe roadside design.  相似文献   


19.
This paper builds upon the results of previously developed crash prediction models for roundabouts. The originally investigated sample was extended from 90 to 148 roundabouts. Poisson and gamma modelling techniques were used, the latter ones since underdispersion in the crash data was observed. Separate models were fit for crashes with six different types of road users: bicyclists, motorcyclists, passenger and heavy four-wheel vehicles, moped riders and pedestrians. A further distinction was made between single-vehicle and multiple-vehicle crashes.The results show that the overall number of crashes is more or less proportional to the number of motorized vehicles. The mean number of single-vehicle crashes per passing vehicle is lower on busier roundabouts. Confirmation is found for the existence of a ‘safety-in-numbers’ effect for different types of road users. Three-leg roundabouts tend to perform worse than roundabouts with four or more legs. More crashes seem to occur at roundabouts with bypasses for traffic in some direction. Larger central islands correlate with more single-vehicle crashes. Moped riders and motorcyclists are strongly overrepresented in both single-vehicle and multiple-vehicle crashes whereas bicyclists are clearly overrepresented in multiple-vehicle crashes. Roundabouts with cycle paths perform better than roundabouts with other types of cycle facilities, particularly in comparison with roundabouts with cycle lanes close to the roadway.  相似文献   

20.
Introduction: Reducing the likelihood of freeway secondary crashes will provide significant safety, operational and environmental benefits. This paper presents a method for assessing the likelihood of freeway secondary crashes with Adaptive Signal Control Systems (ASCS) deployed on alternate routes that are typically used by diverted freeway traffic to avoid any delay or congestion due to a freeway primary crash. Method: The method includes four steps: (1) identification of secondary crashes, (2) verification of alternate routes, (3) assessment of the likelihood of secondary crashes for freeways with ASCS deployed on alternate routes and non-ASCS (i.e. pre-timed, semi- or fully-actuated) alternate routes, and (4) investigation of unobserved heterogeneity of the likelihood of freeway secondary crashes. Four freeway sections (i.e., two with ASCS deployed on alternate routes and two non-ASCS alternate routes) in South Carolina are considered. Results and Conclusions: Findings from the logistic regression modeling reveal significant reduction in the likelihood of secondary crashes for one freeway section (i.e., Charleston I-26 E) with ASCS deployed on alternate route. Other factors such as rear-end crash, dark or limited light, peak period, and annual average daily traffic contribute to the likelihood of freeway secondary crashes. Furthermore, random-parameter logistic regression model results for Charleston I-26 E reveal that unobserved heterogeneity of ASCS effect exists across the observations and ASCS are associated with the reduction of the likelihood of freeway secondary crashes for 84% of the observations (i.e., primary crashes). Location of the primary crash on the freeway is observed to affect the benefit of ASCS toward freeway secondary crash reduction as the primary crash’s location determines how many upstream freeway vehicles will be able to take the alternate route. Practical Applications: Based on the findings, it is recommended that the South Carolina Department of Transportation (SCDOT) considers deploying ASCS on alternate routes parallel to freeway sections where high percentages of secondary crashes are found.  相似文献   

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