基于集值统计-灰色模糊的航道通航环境安全评价

鉴于航道通航环境安全评价的模糊性和随机性,结合集值统计法和灰色模糊理论,建立航道通航环境安全评价模型。在综合分析航道通航环境安全影响因素的基础上,建立了由自然环境、航道条件、交通环境3类一级指标及12项二级指标所组成的航道通航环境安全评价指标体系。该模型利用集值统计确定各个评价指标的权重;通过确定评价样本矩阵,实现对航道通航环境场景的初步构建;利用灰色模糊综合评价法,量化评估航道通航环境安全等级。以广东坭洲头航道为例进行实例分析,结果表明,基于集值统计和灰色模糊理论的安全评价方法计算简单,评价结果客观、准确,便于实际应用。     

江心洲型船闸通航安全问题及改善措施研究

船闸布置在江心洲上后,由于相邻建筑物的动水作用及两汊水流在洲尾的交汇,将会影响船闸的通航安全.为研究江心洲型船闸下游的船舶航行问题,探讨有效的改善措施,结合澧水艳洲枢纽、沅水桃源枢纽布置的共同特点,在物理模型基础上利用船舶模型试验分析船闸下游影响航行安全的因素,研究采取针对性措施后航行条件的改善效果.结果表明:布置隔流堤、导流墩等辅助建筑物只能解决下游靠近引航道出口部分航段的通航问题;综合采用拓宽航槽、优化航线、合理调度、优化船闸布置等措施,可有效减小船体漂移,优化航行环境,保障船舶通航安全.     

渤海海域超大型船舶安全航速限定标准研究

为确保超大型船舶在渤海海域的航行安全,避免偏航和搁浅事故的发生,鉴于船舶安全航速限定标准的重要性,提出基于交通流要求(纵向)、航道尺度要求(横向)和富裕水深(UKC)要求(垂向)的船舶安全航速三维限定数学模型。研究在渤海海域通航条件下,以超大型油轮(VLCC)和散装船为代表船型的船舶在不同风流条件下的安全航速限定标准。结果表明,不同船舶的安全航速限定标准不同,该标准应考虑风流、航宽、水深等条件,并与船舶方形系数有直接关系。     

基于熵权模糊模型的港区航道通航风险评价

航道作为港口的基础性配套设施之一,对于港区的通航安全有着重要意义。为了确保港区航道的通航安全,运用Reason模型对影响航道的通航安全因素进行辨识,将影响港区航道通航安全的因素分为10项一级指标,并将各项评价指标分为危险、比较危险、一般、比较安全和安全5个安全等级,从而建立了港区航道安全评价指标体系。通过熵权、概率论及模糊数学相结合的安全评价方法对港区航道通航安全进行风险评价,充分考虑安全评价指标的不确定性和受主观因素的影响。并以董家口航道为例,运用熵权模糊模型对其进行安全综合评价。结果表明,该理论应用于港区航道通航安全综合评价方面具有较好的适应性。     

基于贝叶斯—LOPA方法的深水钻井安全屏障可靠性分析

据统计,钻井过程是海上井喷事故的高发阶段,为保障钻井安全进行,安装了节流管线、防喷器等安全屏障减缓系统风险,安全屏障的可靠性直接影响钻井安全。利用贝叶斯—LOPA方法建立深水钻井安全屏障可靠性分析模型,以储层-溢流-井涌-井喷为事件链,运用三级井控理论建立独立保护层,每一保护层运用贝叶斯网络方法计算失效概率。在GeNIe软件中完成模型建立,并且完成后验概率计算、敏感性分析、影响力分析。通过分析计算结果给出风险控制关键事件和风险减缓措施,为钻井现场安全工作提出指导意见,确保深水钻井安全有序进行。     

LNG船舶进出港航行移动安全区宽度定量计算分析

为保障液化天然气(LNG)船舶进出港通航安全,提出一种基于LNG船舶碰撞事故概率和风险的LNG船舶移动安全区宽度界定方法。该方法以船舶碰撞概率模型、船舶碰撞损害模型和LNG池火危害模型为基础,计算LNG船舶在航行过程中的事故概率和风险,并根据其分布特征,结合事故概率与风险可接受标准,定量界定LNG船舶移动安全区的宽度。研究表明,LNG船舶移动安全区宽度与通航水域交通流分布、事故船舶的排水量、航行速度等相关。在水上交通管理应用中,可根据LNG船舶及应用水域交通的实际情况确定LNG船舶进出港航行移动安全区的宽度。     

公众聚集场所火灾疏散性能化分析方法研究

针对公众聚集场所人员密集的特点和现行规范适用上的局限性问题,本文就公众聚集场所火灾条件下的人员疏散性能化分析方法进行研究,构建了以安全疏散为主线的性能化分析技术体系,确定了保障人员生命安全的总体目标和人员安全疏散的性能指标可接受阈值。通过火灾场景设计和烟气蔓延模型的运用,归纳总结可用疏散时间的计算模型;通过分析现有疏散需要时间计算模型的不足,提出利用当量疏散速度解决疏散模型中火灾对疏散过程影响的问题。研究结果对建筑火灾疏散安全性分析具有重要的指导意义,为我国的安全疏散性能化分析方法体系的建立和应用提供参考。     

考虑因子突变的客滚船海峡航行安全韧性动力学仿真

为有效评价影响因子扰动下客滚船海峡航行的安全韧性，提出了一种基于突变理论和系统动力学的安全韧性评估模型。首先，通过分析客滚船海峡航行安全与应急特征，构建鲁棒性、可恢复性、冗余性、多样性和适应性等航行安全韧性评价指标体系，分析客滚船海峡航行安全事故致因的因果循环关系；然后，引入突变动力学理论，建立客滚船航行安全韧性分析模型，分析客滚船海峡航行安全韧性特征，揭示各因子及不同特性对安全韧性的影响；最后，结合琼州海峡航行的场景数据开展安全韧性动力学仿真试验。结果表明：就客滚船航行而言，鲁棒性、可恢复性和冗余性的增加对韧性提升效果较为显著；环境条件中大风扰动下韧性水平较低。     

基于模糊证据推理的内河船舶航行安全状态评价

在综合考虑我国内河水上交通安全管理部门的需求及相关规定的基础上,构建了船舶在内河航行中的安全评价模型。基于此,将定性指标风险等级划分为高、中、低3等,通过模糊理论构造定量指标的模糊评估等级分布图,根据获取到的指标层评价指标的信息,计算指标层评价指标的模糊信度分布,运用证据推理依次对各层级的评价结果进行融合,最后得到目标层的模糊信度分布。同时,采用效用函数将评价结果进行量化,定义风险等级中的高、中、低对应的效用值为0、0.5、1,从而得到船舶航行安全状态的量化评价结果。基于上述安全评价模型,针对我国内河船舶"富发888"开展案例研究,通过该模型计算得到船舶"富发888"的安全状态量化分值为0.578 1,属于中等风险水平,其风险等级与其真实航行状态基本吻合。     

深部回采矿柱失稳的尖点突变理论分析及宽度优化

为正确估算矿柱承受载荷,运用普氏理论分析矿柱承载机理,指出矿柱承受载荷为上覆岩层拱形塑性区的重力,计算出矿柱体系中单个矿柱承受的平均载荷。建立矿柱失稳的尖点突变模型,推导出矿柱能量方程,分析矿柱失稳力学机制,根据矿柱失稳的充分条件和必要条件得出矿柱极限宽度值的计算方法,并分析主要因素对矿柱宽度极限值的影响规律。通过工程实例验证矿柱宽度计算方法的有效性和适用性。研究结果表明:影响矿柱宽度的主要因素包括开采深度、采场宽度和矿柱高度;以冬瓜山铜矿为例,矿柱宽度的理论计算值应大于3.63 m,数值分析选取矿柱宽度为4 m时,矿柱处于稳定状态.现场工业试验表明,宽度为4 m的矿柱稳定性较好。     

Occupant Risk,Partner Risk and Fatality Rate in Frontal Crashes: Estimated Effects of Changing Vehicle Fleet Mass in 15 Years

The effect of vehicle fleet mass on car crash fatalities was estimated, using a new mathematical model to isolate vehicle mass from related factors like size, stiffness and inherent protection. The model was based on fatality risk data, impact speed, fleet mass distribution, and collision probabilities. The fleet mass distribution was changed over 15 years to (a) a homogeneous fleet of 1300 kg cars, (b) a bimodal fleet of 600 and 1600 kg cars, and (c) a 300 kg lighter fleet.

Occupant and collision partner fatality risks were estimated for the new fleets. The new fleets were achieved by various strategies, and the average fatality rate was calculated after and during the transition to the new fleet.Occupant fatality risk decreased and partner risk increased as occupants changed to a heavier car. The average fatality rate was 59% higher after the transition to a bimodal fleet mass, and 11 % lower for a homogeneous fleet. A 300 kg lighter fleet had a 8% higher fatality rale, but the strategy influenced the number of fatalities accumulated during the transition. The safest strategy to attain the lighter fleet was to reduce the mass of the heaviest cars first.

It was concluded that vehicle fleet mass significantly affects traffic safety. Downsizing consequences can be compensated for by improving inherent vehicle protection or reducing impact speed. The fatalities during downsizing can be limited by choosing an appropriate strategy.     

基于蒙特卡洛方法的着陆擦机尾风险预测

为解决对航班和机队着陆时擦机尾风险客观预测问题，基于飞行QAR数据和蒙特卡洛模拟方法，建立擦机尾风险预测模型，将某航空公司Boeing737-800机队的380套QAR数据作为样本数据，运用MATLAB编程进行5 000次模拟抽样试验，得到不同机队着陆时俯仰角的分布和擦机尾风险预测曲线。研究结果表明:当着陆俯仰角大于4.5°时，机队2擦机尾风险较大；运用蒙特卡洛模拟预测的飞机着陆俯仰角更为稳定和准确。该模型可进一步软件化，为航空公司的擦机尾超限事件管理提供可靠性指标参考，实现对飞行员操作风险的动态管理。     

直边坡参数对边坡稳定性的影响

采用量纲分析的方法给出直边坡几何参数和物理力学参数决定边坡稳定系数的通式。首先,边坡高度H和边坡角α被确定为直边坡的几何参数,抗拉强度σt、黏聚力C、内摩擦角和岩土比重γ被确定为直边坡的物理力学参数;其次,采用量纲分析的方法,形式上给出边坡稳定系数F的通式,F=qαpα(C/Hγ)pcφpφ(σt/Hγ)pσ;再次,为了得到待定系数q和待定指数pα、pc、pφ、pσ,通过最小二乘法对数万个计算结果进行回归分析(每个结果都是通过FLAC计算将确定的直边坡参数与它的稳定系数形成对应)。结果表明,在一定的取值范围内,边坡稳定系数的表达式为F=4.63/α(C/Hγ)0.17φ0.83。可见,受MohrCoulomb和拉应力两个强度准则控制的岩土材料形成的直边坡的稳定性受无量纲的黏聚力、边坡角(角度)、内摩擦角(角度)的控制,与抗拉强度关系不大。无量纲黏聚力是黏聚力除以边坡高度和岩土比重。     

Projecting effects of improvements in passive safety of the New Zealand light vehicle fleet

OBJECTIVES: In the year 2000, as part of the process for setting New Zealand road safety targets, a projection was made for a reduction in social cost of 15.5 percent associated with improvements in crashworthiness, which is a measure of the occupant protection of the light passenger vehicle fleet. Since that document was produced, new estimates of crashworthiness have become available, allowing for a more accurate projection. The objective of this paper is to describe a methodology for projecting changes in casualty rates associated with passive safety features and to apply this methodology to produce a new prediction. METHOD: The shape of the age distribution of the New Zealand light passenger vehicle fleet was projected to 2010. Projected improvements in crashworthiness and associated reductions in social cost were also modeled based on historical trends. These projections of changes in the vehicle fleet age distribution and of improvements in crashworthiness together provided a basis for estimating the future performance of the fleet in terms of secondary safety. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: A large social cost reduction of about 22 percent for 2010 compared to the year 2000 was predicted due to the expected huge impact of improvements in passive vehicle features on road trauma in New Zealand. Countries experiencing improvements in their vehicle fleets can also expect significant reductions in road injury compared to a less crashworthy passenger fleet. Such road safety gains can be analyzed using some of the methodology described here.     

一种利用AIS数据计算受限水域内航标安全距离的方法

AIS数据详细记录了特定水域的船舶位置、船首向和尺寸等数据,可用于计算受限水域内航标安全距离。按一定标准网格化目标航标附近水域,统计周围航行的他船船体出现在每一个网格中的频数,形成他船航迹的网格频数图。按长度尺寸分类,将同类他船航迹网格频数图叠加,形成特定类型船舶的航迹网格频数图。按频数大小填充颜色,可清晰地显示航标附近他船安全通行状态下与航标保持的距离。实验选取上海港航标附近水域海量AIS数据,获取了60~79m,80~99m,100~129m,130~159m船舶航迹形成的网格频数图,结果显示,四类船舶距航标的安全距离随着他船长度的增大而增加,分别为50m,70m,110m,150m。     

Longitudinal safety impacts of cooperative adaptive cruise control vehicle's degradation

Introduction: The adaptive cruise control (ACC) and cooperative ACC (CACC) systems are critical parts of self-driving vehicles. The ACC vehicles detect front vehicle' information via vehicle-mounted sensors and make longitudinal reactions automatically, while CACC vehicles enhance the performance by vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) wireless communication. However, CACC vehicles may abruptly degrade to ACC mode in reality due to various reasons, including communication failures, driver manipulations, and cyber-attacks. The sudden degradation will definitely bring negative influences on safety. Method:This study quantitatively evaluated the longitudinal safety impacts of vehicles' degradation in a CACC fleet based on microscopic simulations. The realistic CACC and ACC models proposed by the California Partners for Advanced Transit and Highways (PATH) were used for simulation experiments. The time integrated time-to-collision (TIT) was measured to quantify the collision risks. Extensive simulations were conducted via a fleet of 10 CACC vehicles and speed profiles of vehicles in different scenarios were compared. Key factors, including the leading vehicle's deceleration rate, the number of vehicles between degraded vehicles (NVDVs), threshold of TTC, and visibility were also examined via sensitivity analyses. Results and conclusions: Simulation results indicate that degradation has significant negative influences on longitudinal safety of degraded vehicles under the driving state of deceleration. Degradation at middle positions in a CACC fleet, such as fourth and fifth positions, is much safer than that at others. Moreover, nonadjacent degradation is much riskier than adjacent degradation at the front positions of a fleet. NVDVs can bring inverse impacts on safety with different degradation positions. Speed profiles imply that the hysteresis of degraded vehicles' speed control is the major reason for high collision risks. Practical applications: Appropriately, hierarchical countermeasures have the potential to reduce the longitudinal safety impacts of degradation. Findings of this study can contribute to determining the applicable length of CACC fleets.     

安全文化学核心原理研究

为进一步丰富安全文化学原理和完善安全文化学学科理论体系,进而促进安全文化学研究与发展,主要从组织层面出发,运用比较法与归纳法,对安全文化学核心原理开展系统研究。首先,根据安全文化与安全文化学的定义,给出安全文化学原理的定义,并指出安全文化学原理研究需注意的2个问题。其次,提炼并剖析安全文化学原理的7条核心原理,即累积效应、"中心-边缘"效应、过滤原理、传播原理、局部稳定原理、最小偏离角原则与牵引跨越原理。最后,构建安全文化学原理"三层"结构体系,并分析其内涵。结果表明,7条安全文化学核心原理之间彼此影响、相互促进,并可划分为3个不同层面,它们几乎涵盖安全文化学的所有研究内容,可显著促进安全文化学学科理论体系的发展和完善。     

Using psychological frameworks to inform the evaluation of fleet safety initiatives

Despite its importance, relatively little past research has investigated the effectiveness of fleet safety initiatives and their impact on drivers’ attitudes and work-related driving outcomes within a strong theoretical framework. This study conceptualised the social–psychological processes underlying two fleet safety initiatives, and hypothesised that these processes could be used to explain the effects of the fleet safety initiatives on changes in attitudes. Twenty-four fleet managers participated in the study and the results suggested that the effectiveness of the fleet safety initiatives in changing fleet managers’ attitudes toward the management of fleet safety could be explained through some of the processes underlying the persuasive communication and behavior management frameworks. Finally, some implications for designing and improving fleet safety initiatives were discussed.     

自由飞行下基于高斯白噪声的碰撞风险模型

飞机的安全性在自由飞行中受到通信导航监视性能、人为因素、防撞系统等因素的影响,其中通信导航监视性能会导致飞机产生定位误差,这种定位误差具有高斯白噪声的特性。主要考虑飞行定位误差的高斯白噪声特性,将此误差用概率表示为以理论位置向外辐射,根据飞机的相对运动,建立基于高斯白噪声的碰撞风险模型,给出模型中各参数的求解方法,从而得到碰撞风险。最后用算例验证了模型的可行性,在现行的安全目标水平之下为相关运行部门提供相应的最小安全间距,为实际运行奠定一定的理论基础。