Failure Mode and Effect Analysis using an integrated approach of clustering and MCDM under pythagorean fuzzy environment

Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is an effective risk analysis and failure avoidance approach in the design, process, services, and system. With all its benefits, FMEA has three limitations: failure mode risk assessment and prioritization, complex FMEA worksheets, and difficult application of FMEA tables. This paper seeks to overcome the shortcomings of FMEA using an integrated approach based on a developed Pythagorean fuzzy (PF) k-means clustering algorithm and a popular MCDM method called PF-VIKOR. In the first step, Pythagorean fuzzy numbers (PFNs) were used to collect Severity (S), Occurrence (O), and Detection (D) factors for failure modes to incorporate uncertainty and fuzziness into subjective judgments. Afterward, failure modes were clustered by developing a novel k-means clustering algorithm that accepts PFNs as input. Finally, the PF-VIKOR approach was used to analyze the ordering of cluster risks. The proposed approach was implemented in the dehydration unit of an Iranian gas refinery and the results were compared with the traditional FMEA. The findings showed the flexibility and applicability of the proposed approach in addressing real-world problems. This research provides two key contributions: (1) designing a PFN-based k-means clustering algorithm that tackles FMEA limitations and (2) using the PF-VIKOR method for prioritizing and evaluating failure mode clusters.     

Failure mode and effect analysis using regret theory and PROMETHEE under linguistic neutrosophic context

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), which aims to identify and assess potential failure modes in a system, has been widely utilized in diverse areas for improving and enhancing the performance of systems due to it is a powerful and useful risk and reliability assessment instrument. However, the conventional FMEA approach has been suffered several criticisms for it has some shortcomings, such as unable to handle ambiguous and uncertain information, neglect the relative weights of risk criteria, and without considering the psychological behaviors of decision-makers. To ameliorate these limitations, this paper aims at establishing a hybrid risk ranking model of FMEA via combing linguistic neutrosophic numbers, regret theory, and PROMETHEE (Preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation) approach. In the presented model, linguistic neutrosophic numbers are adopted to capture decision-makers’ evaluation regarding the failure modes on each risk criterion. A modified PROMETHEE approach based on regret theory is presented to obtain the risk priority of failure modes considering the psychological behaviors of decision-makers. Moreover, a maximizing deviation model and TOPSIS (Technique for order preference similar to ideal solution) are separately applied to derive the weights of risk criteria and decision-makers. Finally, a numerical example relating to the supercritical water gasification system is employed to implement the presented method, and the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model are validated by the results derived from a sensitivity and comparison analysis.     

Multi-criteria decision-making considering risk and uncertainty in physical asset management

In this work we present a method for risk-informed decision-making in the physical asset management context whereby risk evaluation and cost-benefit analysis are considered in a common framework. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures to prioritize projects based on a combination of risk tolerance criteria, cost-benefit analysis and uncertainty reduction metrics. There is a need in the risk and asset management literature for a unified framework through which quantitative risk can be evaluated against tolerability criteria and trade-off decisions can be made between risk treatment options. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures for loss of life, loss of production and loss of property. A risk matrix is used to classify risk as intolerable, As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) or broadly tolerable. Risks in the intolerable and ALARP region require risk treatment, and risk treatment options are generated. Risk reduction benefit of the treatment options is quantified, and cost-benefit analysis is performed using discounted cashflow analysis. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to derive weights for prioritization criteria based on decision-maker preferences. The weights, along with prioritization criteria for risk reduction, tolerance criteria and project cost, are used to prioritize projects using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution. The usefulness of the methodology for improved decision-making is illustrated using a numerical example.     

Integrating lean principles and fuzzy bow-tie analysis for risk assessment in chemical industry

In this research, a framework combining lean manufacturing principles and fuzzy bow-tie analyses is used to assess process risks in chemical industry. Lean manufacturing tools and techniques are widely used for eliminating wastes in manufacturing environments. The five principles of lean (identify value, map the value stream, create flow, establish pull, and seek perfection) are utilized in the risk assessment process. Lean tools such as Fishbone Diagram, and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) are used for risk analysis and mitigation. Lean principles and tools are combined with bow-tie analysis for effective risk assessment process. The uncertainty inherent with the risks is handled using fuzzy logic principles. A case study from a chemical process industry is provided. Main risks and risk factors are identified and analyzed by the risk management team. Fuzzy estimates are obtained for the risk factors and bow-tie analysis is used to calculate the aggregated risk probability and impact. The risks are prioritized using risk priority matrix and mitigation strategies are selected based on FMEA. Results showed that the proposed framework can effectively improve the risk management process in the chemical industry.     

A novel Dempster-Shafer theory-based approach with weighted average for failure mode and effects analysis under uncertainty

Risk priority number (RPN) is a commonly-used prioritization method in failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) for systemic reliability and safety study. However, conventional RPN confronts wide criticisms, due to the neglect of the uncertainties of experts' opinions. It is important to handle the conflicts among experts' multi-opinions which could be described in imprecise, incomplete or crisp forms in lack of knowledge. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to alleviate and/or eliminate counter-intuitive behaviors against conflicts among multi-opinions under Dempster-Shafer theory. Firstly, the abnormity test for experts’ opinions is undertaken to identify and discard those distinct judgments. Then, an approach to determining the subjective weights of experts is proposed, which is used in weighted average for multi-opinions before calculating RPNs. Finally, the risk priority evaluation on main engine crankcase explosion failure on-board ship is implemented to verify the feasibility of the proposed approach.     

An Exploratory Study of Meanings of Risk Control for Long Term and Acute Effect Occupational Health and Safety Risks in Small Business Construction Firms

A qualitative study of employers' and employees' meanings of occupational health and safety (OHS) risk control was conducted among a sample of small businesses engaged in the Australian construction industry. Two OHS risks relevant to the construction industry were selected for study. One risk (falls from height) represented an immediate consequence, whereas the other (occupational skin disease) represented a long-term health effect. Meanings of the sources and control for these risks were explored during in-depth interviews. Participants perceived the immediate effect, falls from height OHS risk, as being more important in their workplaces than the delayed effect, skin disease OHS risk. The risk of falls from height was perceived to be controllable but requiring a great deal of effort to prevent, whereas there was a fatalistic resignation to the risk of occupational skin disease. Meanings of risk control for both occupational skin disease and falls from height focused on individual rather than technological risk controls. Organizational barriers to the adoption of technological OHS risk controls in the construction industry were identified.     

职业健康与安全风险认知研究进展及分析

为了解和掌握国内外职业健康与安全（OHS）风险认知的研究进展，检索截至2017年12月31日美国工程索引（EI）、Web of Science数据库、中国知网、万方数据资源系统、维普中文科技期刊全文数据库收录的职业健康与安全风险认知研究论文。研究结果表明:国外OHS风险认知研究较成熟，相关研究成果涉及各行各业；我国OHS风险认知研究起步较晚、成果较少，仅涉及建筑、采矿、化工等行业领域。进一步对956篇文献开展深入分析，总结OHS风险认知的测量、OHS风险认知的影响因素、OHS风险认知的影响结果、OHS风险认知的差异4个主题研究进展。在分析结果基础上，结合行业实际情况，对今后OHS风险认知发展提出4点建议，并进一步讨论OHS风险认知研究的未来发展方向。     

A new practical approach to risk management for underground mining project in Quebec

The mining industry worldwide is currently experiencing an economic boom that is contributing to economic recovery and social progress in many countries. For this to continue, the mining industry must meet several challenges associated with the start-up of new projects. In a highly complex and uncertain environment, rigorous management of risks remains indispensable in order to repel threats to the success of mining.In this article, a new practical approach to risk management in mining projects is presented. This approach is based on a novel concept called “hazard concentration” and on the multi-criteria analysis method known as the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The aim of the study is to extend the use of this approach to goldmines throughout Quebec. The work is part of a larger research project of which the aim is to propose a method suitable for managing practically all risks inherent in mining projects.This study shows the importance of taking occupational health and safety (OHS) into account in all operational activities of the mine. All project risks identified by the team can be evaluated. An adaptable database cataloguing about 250 potential hazards in an underground goldmine was constructed. In spite of limitations, the results obtained in this study are potentially applicable throughout the Quebec mining sector.     

Safety evaluation of leak in a storage tank using fault tree analysis and risk matrix analysis

The work presented in this paper used a quantitative analysis of relevant risks through the development of fault tree analysis and risk analysis methods to aid real time risk prediction and safety evaluation of leak in a storage tank. Criticality of risk elements and their attributes can be used with real time data to predict potential failures likely to occur. As an example, a risk matrix was used to rank risk of events that could lead to a leak in a storage tank and to make decisions on risks to be allowed based on past statistical data. An intelligent system that recognizes increasing level(s) and draws awareness to the possibility of additional increase before unsafe levels are attained was used to analyse and make critical decisions. After a visual depiction of relationships between hazards and controls had been actualized, dynamic risk modelling was used to quantify the effect controls can potentially have on hazards by applying historical and real-time data into a probabilistic model. The output of a dynamic risk model is near real-time quantitative predictions of risk likelihood. Results from the risk matrix analysis method mixed with RTD and FTA were analyzed, evaluated, and compared.     

A comparative analysis of safety management and safety performance in twelve construction projects

IntroductionSafety management in construction is complicated due to the complex “nature” of the construction industry. The aim of this research was to identify safety management factors (e.g., risk management and site management), contextual factors (e.g., organisational complexity) and combinations of such factors connected to safety performance. Method: Twelve construction projects were selected to compare their safety management and safety performance. An analytical framework was developed based on previous research, regulations, and standards where each management factor was defined. We employed qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to produce case knowledge, compare the cases, and identify connections between the factors and safety performance. The material collected and analyzed included, for example, construction planning documents, reports from OHS-inspections, safety indicators, and interviews with project leaders and OHS experts. Results and conclusions: The research showed that: (a) the average score on 12 safety management factors was higher among projects with high safety performance compared to projects with low safety performance; (b) high safety performance can be achieved with both high and low construction complexity and organizational complexity, but these factors complicate coordination of actors and operations; (c) it is possible to achieve high safety performance despite relatively poor performance on many safety management factors; (d) eight safety management factors were found to be “necessary” for high safety performance, namely roles and responsibilities, project management, OHS management and integration, safety climate, learning, site management, staff management, and operative risk management. Site management, operative risk management, and staff management were the three factors most strongly connected to safety performance. Practical implications: Construction stakeholders should understand that the ability to achieve high safety performance in construction projects is connected to key safety management factors, contextual factors, and combinations of such factors.     

Using risk tolerance criteria to determine safety integrity levels for safety instrumented functions

Standards and industry guidelines for Safety Instrumented Systems (SISs) describe the use of hazard and risk analysis to determine the risk reduction required, or Safety Integrity Levels (SILs), of Safety Instrumented Functions (SIFs) with reference to hazardous events and risk tolerance criteria for them. However, significant problems are encountered when putting this approach into practice. There is ambiguity in the meaning of the term hazardous event. Notably, even though it is a key concept in the process-sector-specific SIS standard, IEC 61511/ISA 84, it is not defined in the standard. Consequently, risk tolerance criteria for hazardous events are ill-defined and, therefore, they are not the most appropriate criteria to use. Most current approaches to SIL determination use them and therefore they are flawed fundamentally.An informed decision on the tolerability of risk for a facility cannot be made by determining only the tolerability of risk for individual hazardous events. Rather, the tolerability of the cumulative risk from all hazard scenarios and their hazardous events for a facility must be determined. Such facility risk tolerance criteria are the type used by regulators. This issue applies to all per event risk tolerance criteria. Furthermore, determining the tolerability of risk for a facility based only on the risks of single events, be they hazard scenarios or hazardous events, and comparing them to risk tolerance criteria for the events is not meaningful because there is no consideration of how many such events can actually occur and, therefore, no measure of the total risk. The risks from events should be summed for a facility and compared with overall facility risk tolerance criteria.This paper describes and illustrates SIL determination using a risk model implemented within the framework of Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA) that overcomes these problems. The approach allows the allocation of risk across companies, facilities, processes, process units, process modes, etc. to be managed easily.     

Project risk identification and assessment simultaneously using multi-attribute group decision making technique

The identification and assessment of project risks among potential risks can be considered a multi-attribute group decision making (MAGDM) problem including both quantitative and qualitative criteria. We extend the concept of safety to risk identification and assessment; this is to emphasize that the focus should not only be on the time and cost criteria, but also on the health, safety and environment (HSE) criterion. Conventional approaches to risk identification and risk assessment separately tend to be less effective in dealing with the imprecise of the risk assessment individually. The aim of this paper is to present a new methodology for identifying and assessing risks simultaneously by applying MAGDM technique. This paper includes a new procedure for classifying potential risks which it is named potential risk breakdown structure (PRBS) based on project work breakdown structure (WBS). Nominal group technique (NGT) is utilized for gathering potential risks. Obtained results have been applied in gas refinery plant construction successfully.     

核电站重要敏感性设备分析

核电站重要敏感性设备管理是国内首次采用归纳法和演绎法对核电站重要敏感系统和设备进行识别和设备分级的一种新方法。目标是为了找到导致反应堆紧急停堆、强迫停机和非计划跳机跳堆风险的主要部件 ,并采用 80 - 2 0的原理进行有效的管理 ,建立有效的风险管理 (预防、探测、改正行动 PDC ,Prevention/Detec tion/Correction)大纲和PDC管理数据库 ,并对大部分的重要敏感设备的子部件进行的FMEA(FailureModeandEffectAnalysis)分析 ,识别其失效机理 ,从而确定重要敏感设备清单和预防跳机跳堆的改正行动 ,减少未来由于设备失效导致的跳堆次数 ,达到提高核电站的设备可靠性、安全性和经济性的目的。     

A societal risk study for transportation of class-3 hazmats – A case of Indian state highways

United Nations Class-3 hazardous materials (hazmats) are basically liquid products and transported in road tankers under ambient temperature and atmospheric pressure. They are mostly flammables and some of them are toxic (e.g. benzene) as well. The spillages due to collision related incidents involving the road tankers, carrying such hazmats through highways, pose not only flammability hazards due to pool fire, flash fire and vapor cloud explosion (VCE), but create substantial toxic hazards also. The paper presents the risk-based study of route evaluation of two state highways and one urban city road in western India on account of transportation of class-3 hazmats, namely benzene, toluene, p-xylene, methanol, cyclohexane and acetone. A comparative evaluation of study routes was undertaken based on their societal risks presented in terms of F–N curves and assessed against HSE, UK as well as VROM, The Netherlands risk acceptance criteria. Societal risks contribution of cyclohexane to the overall flammability risk mainly VCE is found to be the highest followed by acetone and benzene compared to other study hazmats. This is due to highly explosive nature of cyclohexane resulting into vapor cloud explosion. While acetone and methanol pool fires are likely to cause larger area of damage compared to others, benzene supersedes others as far as toxicity risk is concerned and larger evacuation area is encountered, as it poses greater Immediately Dangerous to Life or Health (IDLH) distance than others. Besides, study of initial isolation distance following an accident in case of benzene tanker found that benzene spillage requires larger initial isolation distance than others and so are the day and night protective action zone distances.     

Pythagorean fuzzy VIKOR-based approach for safety risk assessment in mine industry

Introduction: Underground mining is considered one of the most hazardous industries and is often associated with serious work-related fatalities; this paper addresses job-related hazards and associated risks. Method: A risk assessment approach is proposed (Pythagorean fuzzy environment) and a case study is carried out in an underground copper and zinc mine. Results: Results of the study demonstrate that hazards can be categorized into different risk levels via compromised solutions of the fuzzy approach. Conclusion: The study provides a theoretical contribution by suggesting a Pythagorean fuzzy numbers-based VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (PFVIKOR) approach. Moreover, it contributes to improving overall safety levels of underground mining by considering and advising on the potential hazards of risk management. Practical applications: The proposed approach will improve the existing safety risk assessment mechanism in underground copper and zinc mining.     

基于FMEA和模糊理论的海底管道建造期质量风险分析

为有效控制海底管道建造期间质量风险,采用基于模糊理论的故障模式及影响分析(FMEA)法分析海底管道在此期间众多的质量风险因素。该方法是在传统FMEA方法基础上,结合专家经验和知识确定模糊语言术语集和模糊数,对各风险因素进行模糊评价,根据各风险因素的模糊风险优先度数值(FRPN)进行风险排序,确定涂敷涂层期间需重点关注的风险因素。结果表明:涂层耐阴极剥离、管道腐蚀余量、混凝土抗压强度、密度、涂层张力等性能不满足设计要求是海底管道在涂敷涂层期间质量控制的关键因素。     

A pattern of contractor selection for oil and gas industries in a safety approach using ANP-DEMATEL in a Grey environment

Contractor selection is one of the major concerns of industry managers such as those in the oil industry. The objective of this study was to determine a contractor selection pattern for oil and gas industries in a safety approach. Assessment of contractors based on specific criteria and ultimately selecting an eligible contractor preserves the organizational resources. Due to the safety risks involved in the oil industry, one of the major criteria of contractor selection considered by managers today is safety. The results indicated that the most important safety criterion of contractor selection was safety records and safety investments. This represented the industry’s risks and the impact of safety training and investment on the performance of other sectors and the overall organization. The output of this model could be useful in the safety risk assessment process in the oil industry and other industries.     

Risk analysis in research environment – Part I: Modeling Lab Criticity Index using Improved Risk Priority Number

Current available risk analysis techniques are well adapted to industry needs since they were developed for its purpose. All hazards present in industry are also met in research/academia, although quantities of some hazardous substances are smaller. Still, because of its characteristics e.g., high turnover of collaborators, rapid reorientation of research programs, freedom of research, equipment often in development stage, difficulty to obtain accidents statistics, not well described processes, etc., research/academia milieu is an environment whose risks are difficult to assess by available risk analysis techniques. In the present paper, a new methodology, Laboratory Assessment and Risk Analysis – LARA, for research and/or complex environment is proposed. When multiple hazards are analyzed, the result of assessment is a risk ranking calculated using a Lab Criticity Index – LCI, providing identification of critical areas and prioritization of safety actions. LCI is conceived through two approaches: the Risk Priority Number – RPN and the Analytic Hierarchy Process – AHP. It is suggested to estimate risk as a combination of severity, probability, detectability, worsening factors and research specificities.     

Risk assessment of coupling links in hazardous chemicals maritime transportation system

The hazardous chemicals maritime transportation system (HCMTS) belongs to a typical complex tech-social system, which is comprised of multiple functions with interactions. To quantitatively assess the risks triggered by failure coupling links (CLs) between upstream and downstream functions, a hybrid method integrating the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), fuzzy set theory, and risk matrix is proposed in the present study. A total of 10 essential functions and 16 CLs involved in HCMTS were identified by FRAM. The fuzzy set theory was adopted to aggregate the weights of risk consequence and likelihood for CLs. A risk matrix with a continuous scale was utilized to assess and rank the CLs’ risks. The results have been demonstrated by the comparisons, indicated that the risk indexes (RIs) of the CLs between the functions < Consignment of HCs> and <Undertaking the transportation>, <Consignment of HCs> and <Declaration of HCs>, <Loading HCs in port> and <Ship navigation at sea > are higher in the whole chain of HCMTS.