安全管理力学分析方法(SMMA)及其应用研究

把自然科学中力的概念引入安全管理中,对其中的各种有形和无形联系进行研究,建立了一种安全管理系统的力学分析方法和实施程序。基于该方法把力学与轨迹交叉理论进行映射关联,建立"球体碰撞"模型。通过对比找出模型中存在的各种力,对模型进行受力分析并建立函数方程式。再据方程式及其参数对模型的各种状态进行分析,把分析结果反馈到安全管理系统中用以指导安全管理工作。最后,把安全管理力学分析法概括为定量分析法和定性分析法,并为研究安全管理提供了理论基础。由于力学具有准确、严谨、逻辑性强的特点,因此,引入力学后可以发挥力学与数学的优势。建立的安全管理力学分析方法是一种新方法,该方法对安全管理系统的定量化研究和实施有一定的促进作用。     

鸡冠咀矿区岩体力学参数的确定及数值模拟反演分析

岩体力学参数作为矿井工程设计和施工的基础和依据，其选取的合理性对于预测矿山稳定性及后续支护都有重要意义。以鸡冠咀矿山巷道为主要研究对象，在室内外试验既得数据的基础上，根据正交试验与拉格朗日差分法(FLAC^3D),计算模拟出不同组合下的巷道变形，并开展水平极差分析确定各参数对巷道沉降影响的显著性，最后进行参数反演得出其力学响应规律。结果表明：内摩擦角、弹性模量和黏聚力对巷道围岩变形的影响依次减弱；采空区底板的上浮位移、浅部岩体的下沉位移均随开采深度增加逐步增大。     

桥梁实用延性抗震设计方法研究

针对铁路桥梁中应用广泛的单柱式桥墩 ,考虑多种跨度 ,多种墩高和多种场地及多种地震烈度的情况 ,在进行大量的桥墩结构线性和非线性弹塑性动力计算分析的基础上 ,通过对大量数据的统计分析 ,得到桥墩线弹性最大弯矩比和非线性位移延性比参数的变化规律 ,基于概率性的结构随机地震反应理论 ,建立了由线弹性动力分析结果来估算桥墩结构的位移延性响应的方法。     

基于塑性极限分析法的巷道反底拱支护效应研究

针对现有研究对反底拱控制深井软岩巷道底臌的力学效应多采用模型试验和数值分析方法而缺乏解析方法的问题,基于塑性极限分析法研究了巷道在高竖直应力为主的地应力作用下开挖反拱后巷道底板的应力场特征,揭示了开挖反拱后巷道底臌的机理,并分析了反底拱的支护效应对控制巷道底臌的作用。结果表明:开挖反拱会影响巷道整体的稳定性,但铺设适宜半径的反底拱能大大提高底板的极限承载力;反底拱半径越小,其抑制底臌的效果越明显。结合反底拱力学模型从理论的角度给出了锚拉反底拱支护参数的解析解,为传统支护设计提供参考。最后将提出的方法应用于龙口矿区梁家煤矿一采区运输巷道的支护设计,并进行了现场支护试验,现场监测结果表明,经支护优化设计的试验段巷道变形得到了有效控制。     

桥梁结构安全性评价力学状态参数标定方法

为建立有效的桥梁结构安全评估有限元模型,提出基于桥梁结构诊断试验数据的力学参数标定方法,考虑力学参数及作用效应参数量值的相关性,结合对两者的规则化,消除灵敏度分析时灵敏度矩阵的奇异性;在优化目标函数中引入罚函数来改善收敛效率及收敛性;并通过标定一座在役桥梁结构力学参数有限元模型,分析试验测试数据与以基于结构设计参数得到的作用效应值偏差较大的原因,并验证所提出方法的有效性。结果表明:基于诊断试验的桥梁结构力学参数标定方法,可有效解决传统分析方法与试验结果差异较大的问题,有助于准确评价桥梁结构安全性。     

花岗岩蠕变特性及分数阶黏弹塑性模型研究

为了解花岗岩蠕变特性，采用全自动岩石三轴伺服仪对其开展试验研究，在常规三轴压缩试验基础上进行多级加载蠕变试验，系统分析花岗岩蠕变过程中整体蠕变规律和同围压不同应力水平下的轴向及环向蠕变变形量、蠕变速率随时间的变化规律。基于分数阶微积分算子及损伤力学理论，在Scott Blair黏壶基础上，考虑蠕变参数的非定常性，建立花岗岩黏弹塑性蠕变本构模型，并推导出其在恒应力情况下的三维黏弹塑性蠕变本构模型。结合花岗岩室内多级加载蠕变试验结果，采用Quasi Newton（BFGS）法对三维蠕变模型参数反演。结果表明，提出的模型与试验数据拟合较好并克服Nishihara模型不能描述蠕变非线性加速特征的不足，能够很好地反映花岗岩三阶段蠕变过程。     

基于ACE法和模拟退火算法的土层等效参数反演

提出了一种基于ACE法和模拟退火算法的土层参数反演方法:一方面先用均匀试验构造出输入数据与输出数据,再利用ACE非参数回归方法构造两者之间的高效响应面,然后通过响应面关系进行插值运算来得出对应参数的响应值;另一方面根据响应面的关系构造出反演目标函数,利用模拟退火法对目标函数进行寻优计算,从而能避免寻优过程中的目标函数值陷入局部极值状态,最终提高反演精度。应用该方法对一工程算例的土层等效参数进行反演,反演结果表明该方法是可行的。     

基于驾驶员模型参数辨识的疲劳驾驶研究

提出一种利用驾驶员模型反演方法来进行驾驶员疲劳诊断研究的新方法。首先利用预瞄神经网络建立适应于复杂路况条件下的驾驶员-汽车-道路闭环模型,然后定义特定行驶轨迹内理论数据与试验数据的近似度为目标函数,将驾驶员参数的反演问题转化为多目标优化问题,采用基于实数编码混沌变异量子遗传算法的优化方法,获得全局最优解。试验中采用脑电和主观疲劳心理评测结合的方法确定被试者的疲劳状况。在每种疲劳状况下对驾驶员参数进行辨识,对结果进行统计分析表明,在考虑到车型、道路曲率等因素条件下驾驶员参数分布与驾驶员的疲劳状况有很强的相关性。     

考虑岩体强度参数时效性(流变)的边坡稳定性研究北大核心CSCD

受流变特性的影响,岩体的力学参数具有时效性。为得到边坡时效安全系数,在FLAC数值模拟软件中,通过对岩体抗剪强度参数先折减再流变、先流变再折减及强度参数随流变时步折减(老化理论)3种方式将流变分析与强度折减法相结合,实现了理想弹塑性与黏弹塑性分析的有机结合。研究了时效安全系数的物理意义,利用边坡特征点水平位移增量量化表征了岩体流变特性对稳定性的影响程度;采用岩体强度参数的初始瞬时值和长期强度值,计算得到了考虑边坡时效性安全系数的上下限值。结合黄山石灰石矿山工程实例分析得到:采用抗剪强度参数长期值和瞬时值进行流变分析的结果与现场实际监测数据误差较大,强度参数随流变时间折减时最大误差为5.03%,拟合度最高,模拟结果最接近工程实测分析,能够为边坡长期稳定性评价及滑坡预警预测提供理论依据;将边坡设计的永久性过渡到时效性,流变计算5 a,边坡的安全系数由1.35降低至1.25,表明未来5年边坡处于稳定状态。     

"11.6"特别重大坍塌事故矿区采场稳定性三维数值模拟分析

本文采用岩土力学数值计算有限差分方法,建立了"11.6"矿难塌陷区采场的三维数学模型,反演了该采区的开采历史和围岩破坏、围岩应力分布、地表沉陷、监测点位移变化等情况,从力学角度阐述本次事故发生发展的过程,对地下采场的安全稳定性给出了客观的评价.为事故处理责任的认定和避免同类事故的发生提出了参考性意见.     

基于模糊随机可靠性的边坡稳定性评价

影响边坡稳定性的因素中包含有很多的不确定性,这些不确定因素既具有随机性也具有模糊性。基于模糊分析理论,建立了模糊随机可靠性分析模型,提出了边坡模糊随机可靠性分析的点估计法,并运用该方法对一露天矿边坡稳定的的可靠性进行分析,通过对影响边坡稳定的各个力学参数进行模糊处理,然后应用统计矩点估计方法估计边坡的安全系数均值和可靠度,得出边坡的失稳概率。这种方法由于考虑到了各个力学参数的模糊性,比较符合客观实际,因而更具有实际指导意义。     

Systems-based accident analysis methods: A comparison of Accimap, HFACS, and STAMP

Three accident causation models, each with their own associated approach to accident analysis, currently dominate the human factors literature. Although the models are in general agreement that accidents represent a complex, systems phenomenon, the subsequent analysis methods prescribed are very different. This paper presents a case study-based comparison of the three methods: Accimap, HFACS and STAMP. Each was used independently by separate analysts to analyse the recent Mangatepopo gorge tragedy in which six students and their teacher drowned while participating in a led gorge walking activity. The outputs were then compared and contrasted, revealing significant differences across the three methods. These differences are discussed in detail, and the implications for accident analysis are articulated. In conclusion, a modified version of the Accimap method, incorporating domain specific taxonomies of failure modes, is recommended for future accident analysis efforts.     

Signal denoising method for modal analysis of an offshore platform

The modal analysis of offshore structures is a key element of structural health monitoring based on vibration. A difficulty encountered by practitioners and researchers is that an accurate modal analysis is challenging in noisy environments. The objective of this work is to develop and implement a signal denoising method based on solving the inverse singular value problem of a measured (noisy) data matrix with prescribed entries to reconstruct a filtered data matrix. The measured (noisy) impulse response function (IRF) is used to build a square or nearly square Hankel matrix. The normalized rank determination indicator (RDI) of the Hankel matrix is introduced to determine the number of prescribed non-zero singular values in the prescribed entries inverse singular value problem (PEISVP). The reconstructed (filtered) matrix must maintain the original Hankel structure, and preserve the number of non-zero singular values. Once the filtered IRF has been obtained, the complex exponential (CE) method is applied for the modal analysis. To validate the proposed method, hereafter referred to as PEISVP-CE, we undertake the numerical simulation of a five-story shear building. Once successfully validated, we apply the PEISVP-CE method to an offshore field experiment of a jacket platform under the step relaxation. We find that the PEISVP-CE method is effective at eliminating noise and, therefore, appropriate for the modal analysis of offshore structures.     

Structural reliability analysis of contact fatigue design of gears in wind turbine drivetrains

Advances in the design of large scale wind turbines have raised an interest for more optimized life cycle design of mechanical components (e.g. gears, bearings, shafts, etc.), with a better understanding of their performance over time. Development of the non-systematic, often deterministic design methods followed by the application of corresponding design standards that incorporate experience from current common practice have managed to produce mechanical components that comply with minimum safety requirements. However, such approaches cannot achieve optimized mechanical components, neither account for the performance over their service lives. Reliability-based design currently represents the most advanced method in order to achieve the targets mentioned above, by explicitly considering uncertainty of design variables. This paper describes a structural reliability method (SRM) for fatigue analysis of mechanical components of wind turbines. The method is based on the ‘so-called’ limit state functions of relevant failure modes. Two gear tooth fatigue failure modes (surface and subsurface pitting) were considered. The method is exemplified by a time-domain based gear contact fatigue analysis of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's 750 kW land-based wind turbine. The sensitivity of the reliability index on some random parameters used for reliability-based gear contact fatigue analysis is estimated. The effect of inspection on reliability analysis is also briefly investigated.     

基于DEMATEL的机械生产人员行为形成关键因子分析

针对机械生产人员安全行为形成受多种因素交互影响的问题,提出了一种基于模糊数学和DEMATEL法耦合的机械生产人员行为形成关键因子量化分析方法。首先,运用行为形成因子分析方法确定机械生产人员作业行为影响因素,构建了包含5个因子大类和24个因子因素的机械生产人员行为形成因子体系,然后运用三角模糊数表征因素间的关联程度,并通过问卷调查获取数据,从而借助DEMATEL法构建机械生产人员行为形成关键因子分析模型。最后,通过一个算例,说明所提出分析模型的运用过程。结果表明,所建立的方法可以定量确定机械生产人员行为形成关键因子。     

煤矿砂岩动态力学性能试验与分析方法研究*

为研究动载荷作用下煤岩体测试与分析方法,基于直径50 mm分离式Hopkinson试验装置,采用半导体应变片和电阻应变片2种方法采集透射波,开展淮北矿区典型砂岩动态冲击压缩试验,采用二波法和三波法分别计算得到砂岩试件的应变率、应力和应变峰值等动态力学参数以及能量耗散特征,分析不同应变片种类和计算分析方法的差异性。结果表明:不同计算分析方法得到的应力应变曲线形态基本一致,2种应变片采集的数据可以组合使用;与电阻应变片相比,半导体应变片灵敏系数高,由其采集数据计算得到的应力值高、峰值应变小、应力应变曲线光滑,三波法处理数据具有更高的可靠性;根据2种应变片测试数据计算得到试件应变率、动态强度及峰值应变均随冲击速度的增加而增加,试件吸收能量变化也具有一致性,能量耗散率误差在10%以内。研究结果可为煤矿软岩动态力学性能测试与分析提供参考。     

三峡茅坪溪沥青混凝土心墙堆石坝位移反演分析与安全预测

本文研究了基于综合应用人工神经网络和演化算法的位移反演分析方法,并将此方法应用于三峡茅坪溪沥青混凝土心墙堆石坝的变形反演分析中。以茅坪溪一期工程原型观测成果为依据,反演出能够正确反映坝体变形特性的邓肯-张EB模型参数,从而预测了施工期末和蓄水期末该坝的变形特性,并基于总应力法研究了心墙水力劈裂破坏发生的可能性,为茅坪溪堆石坝运行期的安全生产提供依据。研究结果表明,茅坪溪心墙堆石坝不会发生水力劈裂破坏,该坝蓄水后虽然水压上升,但心墙仍是安全的。     

Integrated dynamic risk assessment of buried gas pipeline leakages in urban areas

In urban areas, buried gas pipeline leakages could potentially cause numerous casualties and massive damage. Traditional static analysis and dynamic probability-based quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methods have been widely used in various industries. However, dynamic QRA methods combined with probability and consequence are rarely used to evaluate gas pipelines buried in urban areas. Therefore, an integrated dynamic risk assessment approach was proposed. First, a failure rate calculation of buried gas pipelines was performed, where the corrosion failure rate dependent on time was calculated by integrating the subset simulation method. The relationship between failure probability and failure rate was considered, and a mechanical analysis model considering the corrosion growth model and multiple loads was used. The time-independent failure rates were calculated by the modification factor methods. Next, the overall evolution process from pipeline failures to accidents was proposed, with the accident rates subsequently updated. Then, the consequences of buried gas pipeline accidents corresponding to the accident types in the evolution process were modeled and analyzed. Finally, based on the above research, dynamic calculation and assessment methods for evaluating individual and social risks were established, and an overall application example was provided to demonstrate the capacity of the proposed approach. A reliable and practical theoretical basis and supporting information are provided for the integrity and emergency management of buried gas pipelines in urban areas, considering actual operational conditions.     

Estimating surface acoustic impedance with the inverse method

Sound field parameters are predicted with numerical methods in sound control systems, in acoustic designs of building and in sound field simulations. Those methods define the acoustic properties of surfaces, such as sound absorption coefficients or acoustic impedance, to determine boundary conditions. Several in situ measurement techniques were developed; one of them uses 2 microphones to measure direct and reflected sound over a planar test surface. Another approach is used in the inverse boundary elements method, in which estimating acoustic impedance of a surface is expressed as an inverse boundary problem. The boundary values can be found from multipoint sound pressure measurements in the interior of a room. This method can be applied to arbitrarily-shaped surfaces. This investigation is part of a research programme on using inverse methods in industrial room acoustics.     

管棚预支护条件下隧道开挖面稳定的可靠度分析

为考虑土体参数的变异性对隧道开挖面稳定性的影响,基于可靠度理论,采用三维弹塑性有限元数值模拟方法,计算管棚预支护条件下隧道开挖面极限支护力;以不同工况下地层参数及其极限支护压力比作为样本,待BP神经网络训练完毕后,即可预测大量给定地层参数工况下的开挖面极限支护压力比,对其进行统计,得到概率分布特征;在理论分析的基础上,结合工程实际,建立了管棚预支护条件下隧道开挖面稳定的极限状态方程,运用粒子群优化算法,对其进行可靠度分析。研究结果表明:采用管棚预支护的隧道,开挖面支护压力存在极限值,达到该值后,增加较小幅度的支护力,就能较大程度地提高隧道开挖面稳定的可靠度。