Safety assessment of potential supercritical solvents for Fischer–Tropsch Synthesis

Fischer–Tropsch Synthesis (FTS) is a primary pathway for gas-to-liquid (GTL) technology. In order to overcome commercial problems associated with reaction and transport phenomena, the use of supercritical solvents has been proposed to enhance conversion, catalyst stability and improve temperature control in fixed-bed reactors. One of the major challenges in designing the supercritical FTS reactor unit is selecting appropriate solvents of critical properties within the required reaction operating conditions. Numerous alternatives exist and should be screened based on relevant criteria. The main aim of this paper is to develop a screening methodology to identify an optimum supercritical solvent or a mixture of solvents that meet the aforementioned criteria while minimizing the cost and more importantly satisfying the safety constraints. A safety metric system was developed in order to compare the risk issues associated with using different solvents. In addition, an economic analysis of using the different solvents was performed. Finally, a case study was solved to illustrate the use of the proposed metrics and the selection of solvents based on safety and techno-economic criteria.     

基于多商品流理论与成本效益分析的公路危险品运输路径优化研究

风险是危险品运输区别与普通货物运输的基本要素,因此,危险品运输既要实现经济目标,又要满足安全的需要。危险品运输其路径优化问题的关键在于在经济性与安全性间取得平衡。为此,在运输成本与风险值间引入权重参量,并充分考虑到路网容量及个别路段最大期望风险等限制因素,运用多商品流理论建立了基于运输成本和运输风险最小化的双目标路径优化模型。进一步地,运用成本效益分析法,并从全局角度对不同解所对应的路径优化方案进行比较,提出了相应的比选准则。最后,通过算例分析证明了该方法的有效性。     

Participative multi-actor safety screening of infrastructures

Infrastructure planning very often underestimates safety issues in the early design phase. The reason for this is not necessarily the overwhelming importance of other aspects, such as functionality and economic considerations. Rather, the controversial views on safety held by different safety experts accounts for the major reason for not attributing safety the importance it deserves. In this paper we propose a seven-step methodology that allows multiple decision makers to evaluate infrastructure alternatives using safety and other indicators in early project phases. The methodology is based on analytic risk assessments, where the decision makers are asked to make ordinal tradeoffs among different safety, economic, and subjective aspects. The methodology allows multiple decision makers to aggregate preferences for different alternatives evaluated by different decision makers in a participative fashion. The proposed methodology was implemented in the Multimedia Group Decision Support Room at Delft University of Technology. The methodology was validated using real decision makers to show its realism and potential for participative decision making in safety planning.     

A multi-criteria approach to screening alternatives for converting sewage sludge to biodiesel

The search for cheaper feedstock for use in the production of biofuels such as biodiesel has turned attention to various forms of waste products including animal fats, waste oils and now lipids in sludge. With the potential of obtaining sludge at a reduced cost, free, or possibly with incentives, sewage sludge is being investigated as a potential feedstock for biofuel production. For the extraction of oils from the sewage sludge and the subsequent processing, there are various alternatives that should be designed, analyzed, and screened. In developing and screening these alternatives, it is necessary to have a consistent basis for comparing alternatives based on key criteria. While most of the design studies focus on techno-economic criteria, it is also important to include safety metrics in the multi-criteria analysis. In this work, a detailed economic analysis and a safety evaluation are performed on a process involving extraction of triglycerides and fatty acids, pre-treatment of fatty acids (direct conversion to biodiesel), and transesterification of triglycerides to biodiesel. Four solvents, toluene, hexane, methanol and ethanol, are individually used in the extraction process. The resulting triglycerides and fatty acids from each extraction are modeled in the pre-treatment process. ASPEN Plus software is used to simulate the detailed process. Economic analysis is performed using ASPEN ICARUS, and scale-up of a previously analyzed process is used to estimate the cost of the biodiesel portion of the process. A new safety metric (referred to as the Safety Index “SI”) is introduced to enable comparison of the various solvent extraction processes. The SI is based on solvent criteria as well as process conditions. A case study is presented to demonstrate the insights and usefulness of the developed approach. The results of the techno-economic analysis reveal that of the four solvents used for the initial extraction, hexane and toluene were least costly (2.89 and 2.79 $/gal, respectively). Conversely, the safety analysis utilizing the SI reveals that methanol and ethanol are the safer solvent options. The issue of cost/safety tradeoffs is also discussed.     

An approach for risk reduction (methodology) based on optimizing the facility layout and siting in toxic gas release scenarios

In this work, a new approach to optimize facility layout for toxic release is presented. By integrating a risk analysis in the optimization formulation, we propose a safer assignment for facility layout and siting. Accompanying with the economical concepts used in a plant layout, the new model considers the cost of willing to avoid a fatality, i.e. the potential injury cost due to accidents associated with toxic release near residential areas. The proposed formulation incorporates a real meteorological data to calculate the injury risk through the probit model and Monte Carlo simulation using dense gas dispersion modeling (DEGADIS). The overall problem was initially modeled as a disjunctive program where the coordinates of each facility and cost-related variables are the main unknowns. Then, the convex hull approach was used to reformulate the problem as a Mixed Integer Non-Linear Program (MINLP) that identifies potential layouts by minimizing overall costs. This approach gives the coordinates of each facility, and estimates for the total length of pipes, the land area, and the selection of safety devices. Finally, the 3D-computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was used to compare between the initial layout and the final layout. Moreover, analyses of separation distances fr2om hazard facilities and hindrance effects will be discussed based on the approach used in this work.     

On the environmental,economic and safety optimization of distributed treatment systems for industrial effluents discharged to watersheds

This paper presents a general mathematical programming model for the synthesis of distributed treatment systems for industrial effluents discharged to watersheds. In addition to addressing the economic and environmental concerns of the design, the paper introduces safety as an additional objective. A multi-objective optimization formulation is developed to simultaneously address and reconcile the various objectives. Material flow analysis (MFA) is used to track the flows and concentrations throughout the watershed system while accounting for the different sources (industrial, sanitary, agricultural, precipitation, etc.), extractions (agricultural, filtration, evaporation, etc.), and physical, biological, and chemical phenomena occurring within the watershed. Additionally, the formulation allows the installation of treatment systems for the industrial effluents. The economic, environmental, and safety aspects of these treatment units are incorporated. A case study with different scenarios for the Balsas watershed in Mexico is considered to show the applicability of the proposed approach.     

A formulation to optimize the risk reduction process based on LOPA

This paper presents a mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model to improve the computational use of the layer of protection analysis (LOPA). For a given set of independent protection layers to be implemented in a process, the proposed optimization model is solved to: a) Include costs associated with the different prevention, protection and mitigation devices, and b) Satisfy the risk level typically specified in the LOPA analysis through the occurrence probability. The underline purpose focuses on improving the analysis process and decision making to obtain the optimal solution in the safeguards selection that satisfies the requirements to be considered as IPL’s. The optimization is based on economic and risk tolerance criteria. As a first stage of this proposal, the safety instrumented system (SIS) design is optimized so that the selection of SIS components minimizes the risk and satisfies the safety integrity level (SIL) requirements. A case study is presented to validate the whole proposed approach.     

An economic evaluation framework for membrane reactor modules in the presence of uncertainty: The case for process safety investment and risk reduction

A comprehensive Net Present Value (NPV) model has been developed to demonstrate the economic advantages of process safety and risk reduction investments on Pd/Au-based membrane reactors. In particular, the economic viability of Pd/Au-based membrane reactor modules incorporated into Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) plants is evaluated within the aforementioned framework by pro-actively following sound process safety design principles. Sources of irreducible uncertainty (market, technological, operational) as well as safety risk are explicitly recognized, such as the Pd/Au prices, membrane life-time and loss in the power plant capacity factor due to possible accidents. The effect of the above uncertainty drivers on the membrane module cost along with production disruption and associated revenue losses is elucidated using Monte-Carlo simulation techniques that enable the propagation of the above uncertain inputs through the NPV-model, and therefore, generate a more realistic distribution of the process system's value rather than a single-point/estimate that overlooks these uncertainties. Pre-investment on risk reducing measures, such as spare safety relief systems (cautionary redundancy) for membrane reactor modules operating at high pressures (e.g. 50 atm), is shown to be economically more attractive than cases where analogous safety measures are not implemented. Since accidents and possibly catastrophic events do happen in an uncertain world, additional investment on safety measures could ensure a safer and more profitable operation of the process system under consideration giving credence to the thesis that process safety investments may result in enhanced techno-economic performance in the presence of irreducible uncertainties.     

Economic assessment of inherently safe membrane reactor technology options integrated into IGCC power plants

Pd/alloy-based (Pd/Cu, Pd/Au) membrane reactors embedded into Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) plants (IGCC-MR) enable the storage and/or use of the energy value of H₂ to produce electricity while the CO₂ enriched retentate exit stream becomes particularly suitable for high pressure CO₂ capture-sequestration. There is undoubtedly a lack of operating experience associated with IGCC-MR plants, and therefore, sound process intensification principles/practices should be followed not only to enhance process system performance but also to ensure process safety and economic feasibility of an IGCC-MR plant. Motivated by the above considerations, a comprehensive process economic assessment framework for an inherently safe membrane Pd/alloy-based reactor integrated into an IGCC plant is proposed. In particular, a detailed Net Present Value (NPV) model has been developed to evaluate the economic viability of an IGCC-MR plant where the membrane reactor module design conforms to basic inherent safety principles. Sources of irreducible uncertainty (market, regulatory and technological) are explicitly recognized such as the power plant capacity factor, Pd price, membrane life time and CO₂-taxes due to future regulatory action/policies. The effect of the above uncertainty drivers on the project's/plant's value is studied through Monte Carlo methods resulting in detailed NPV-distribution and process economic outcome profiles. The simulation results derived suggest that in the presence of (operational, economic and regulatory) uncertainties, inherently safe membrane reactor technology options integrated into IGCC plants could become economically viable. In particular, comparatively more attractive NPV distribution profiles are obtained when concrete safety risk-reducing measures are taken into account through pre-investment in process safety (equipment).     

A new approach for facility siting using mapping risks on a plant grid area and optimization

The present work is focused on developing a methodology to find the optimal placement of a hazardous process unit and other facilities using optimization theory while considering a risk map in the plant area. Incidents can have possible consequences resulting from flammable gas releases, which can be evaluated by using consequence modeling programs. The probability of each incident can be derived from initial leak hole size estimation through event tree analysis. In this methodology the plant area was divided into square grids and risk scores were estimated for each grid. The overall cost is a function of the probable cost of property damage due to fires or explosions and the interconnection cost including piping, cable, and management. The proposed approach uses a mixed integer linear optimization programming (MILP) that identifies attractive locations by minimizing the overall cost. A case study is presented for a hexane–heptane separation facility that considers the meteorological data for the given area in order to show the applicability of the proposed methodology. Results from this study will be useful in assisting the selection of locations for facilities and for risk management.     

Consequence risk analysis using operating procedure event trees and dynamic simulation

Faults due to human errors cost the petrochemical industry billions of dollars every year and can have adverse environmental consequences. Unquantified human error probabilities exist during process state transitions performed each day by process operators using standard operating procedures. Managing the risks associated with operating procedures is an essential part of managing the overall safety risk. Additional operator training and safety education cannot eliminate all such faults due to human errors; therefore, we propose an operating procedure event tree (OPET) like analysis with branches and events specifically designed to perform risk analysis on operating procedures. The OPET method adapts event trees to analyze the risk due to human error while performing operating procedures. We consider human error scenarios during the procedure and determine the likely consequences by applying dynamic simulation. The modified event tree provides an estimate of the error frequencies.Operating procedure steps were developed, and potential operator faults were determined for two typical equipment switching procedures found in chemical plant operations. Then, dynamic simulation using Aspen HYSYS software was applied to determine the overpressure related consequences of each fault. Finally, the error frequencies resulting from those scenarios were analyzed using operating procedure event trees. We found that a typical ethylene plant gas header would overpressure with 0.6% frequency per manual dryer switch. Since dryer switches occur from every few days up to once per shift, these results suggest that dryer switching should be automated to ensure safe and environmentally friendly operation. Process dryer switching performed manually by operators opening and closing gate valves can be automated with control valves and a distributed control system. A sample distillation column was found to overpressure with 0.85% frequency per manual reflux pump switch.     

Safety investment optimization in process industry: A risk-based approach

Process plant safety is a critical indicator of organizational performance. Adequate investment into safety practices to avoid future accident cost is therefore a beneficial strategy. The current approach to such investments in the process industry is driven largely by simple risk-based heuristics, insurance market premiums, organizational culture and management judgment. There is, however, an absence of an overarching methodology to assist such an effort. Therefore, there is a need for developing a robust decision-making framework for enabling systematic and optimal allocation of financial resources across all significant risk elements within a process plant.The present work proposes a safety investment optimization (SIO) framework for a typical process plant. Such an optimization approach targets maximal reduction of risk values across all potential hazards within the constraint of a given safety investment budget at the incipient stage of establishing a plant such that it saves future cost to company by reducing the risk from accidents. At the same time the framework takes into account the need to comply with the regulatory requirements imposed by the government. Additionally, access to insurance market as a strategy to transfer risk is also integrated. Finally, the residual risks are managed through investments in selective safeguards while ensuring that the benefits over-weigh the cost of such an exercise. For illustrating the application of the framework, a representative process plant with a select number of risk scenarios is chosen and all steps suggested by the framework are demonstrated quantitatively. It is anticipated that the proposed SIO framework will help optimal resource allocation for managing the risks implicit in a typical process plant.     

基于情景分析的生产安全事故应急物资的协调储备优化研究

为了研究应急物资的实物储备与协议企业生产能力储备相结合的储备模式协调性,降低企业自身应对突发生产安全事故的物资储备成本,建立多情景生产安全事故下的企业应急物资实物储备场所和协议储备企业选址的协调优化模型,利用Lingo软件进行求解,并以石油储罐火灾的应急物资储备为背景设计算例,验证相关模型及方法的有效性。结果表明:提出的企业应急物资储备体系,能够在降低应急物资储备成本的同时,保持日常应急救灾能力。     

Optimization of facility location and reallocation in an industrial plant through a multi-annual framework accounting for economic and safety issues

The industrial layout traditionally has been addressed accounting for the facilities distribution and installation since the first day of operation of the plant; this is, without considering future expansions that involve additional facilities in the future operation years. This way, this paper proposes a mathematical programming formulation for the optimal facility sitting and reallocation in an industry accounting for future expansions and involving simultaneously economic and safety objectives. The proposed formulation is based on a multi-annual framework and this corresponds to a multi-objective mixed integer linear programming problem. The proposed optimization approach was applied to a case study for the facility sitting (office buildings and control rooms) in an ethylene oxide plant. The economic objective function involves the minimization of the total annual cost accounting for the value of the money through the time and the safety objective function involves the minimization for the accumulated risk over the operation time. Results show the applicability of the proposed approach.     

Integrating probabilistic signed digraph and reliability analysis for alarm signal optimization in chemical plant

The alarm system given in industrial plants are massive and complex. Under such condition, critical alarms are overwhelmed by false and unnecessary alarms and thus result in severe safety issues. To address the problem, this paper proposes a probabilistic signed digraph (PSDG) based alarm signal selection method that requires achieving maximal system reliability. In this method, a PSDG model is firstly constructed to visualize the causal relations between process variables. Then the criteria of observability and identifiability are imposed to determine the candidate alarm variables that can qualitatively distinguish all assumed faults. Instead of selecting the minimum number of combinations of candidate variables, the alarm variables are optimized by a reliability formulation that takes into account the missed alarm and false alarm probabilities of the system; this formulation is solved by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) graph. Finally, the developed methodology is illustrated using a Tennessee Eastman process.     

The integration of Dow's fire and explosion index (F&EI) into process design and optimization to achieve inherently safer design

For the processing industries, it is critically to have an economically optimum and inherently safer design and operation. The basic concept is to achieve the best design based on technical and business performance criteria while performing within acceptable safety levels. Commonly, safety is examined and incorporated typically as an after-thought to design. Therefore, systematic and structured procedure for integrating safety into process design and optimization that is compatible with currently available optimization and safety analysis methodology must be available.The objective of this paper is to develop a systematic procedure for the incorporation of safety into the conceptual design and optimization stage. We propose the inclusion of the Dow fire and explosion index (F&EI) as the safety metric in the design and optimization framework by incorporating F&EI within the design and optimization framework. We first develop the F&EI computer program to calculate the F&EI value and to generate the mathematical expression of F&EI as a function of material inventory and operating pressure. The proposed procedure is applied to a case study involving reaction and separation. Then, the design and optimization of the system are compared for the cases with and without safety as the optimization constraint. The final result is the optimum economic and inherently safer design for the reactor and distillation column system.     

Variability of operating safety limits with catalyst within a fixed-bed catalytic reactor for vapour-phase nitrobenzene hydrogenation

The safety in operation of a fixed-bed catalytic reactor remains a sensitive issue when a highly exothermic reaction is conducted and various process development elements such as controllability, stability, risk, and economic aspects are considered. Several model-based methods are used to estimate the safe operating region limits. Nominal conditions are set to limit the hot spot in the tubular reactor and avoid excessive thermal sensitivity to variations in the process parameters. When the catalyst or its characteristics are changed, the operating conditions have to be adjusted accordingly. The safety problem becomes more important when the production optimization requires setting the nominal operating point in the vicinity of the safety limits. This paper investigates the advantages as well as the precautions that need to be taken when using a more sophisticated model-based global sensitivity criterion (MV of Morbidelli & Varma) to routinely update the runaway critical conditions when changes in the investigated system frequently occur. A concrete example is provided for the case of an industrial fixed-bed catalytic reactor for nitrobenzene hydrogenation in vapour-phase. The analysis points out the discrepancies in predicting the runaway boundaries for complex processes between precise sensitivity-based MV-method and shortcut methods, and the importance of accounting for parameter uncertainty for both evaluation of the confidence region around the runaway boundaries and for the optimal set-point location. The close connection between the operating risk limits and the process kinetics is also highlighted even if the reactor geometry and the main flow conditions are kept unchanged.     

危险品道路运输多目标路径优化方法研究

道路危险品运输路径优化是提高危险品运输安全的一项重要措施。通过对国内外文献的分析研究，本文提出了危险品道路运输路径优化的数学模型，该模型首先求出单项目标的最优解，然后找出每项目标的实际值尽可能接近各自单项的最优值。本文也建立了包括路线长度、时间、费用、路线风险、敏感目标人数在内的危险品道路运输目标体系，并给出危险品运输路线选择决策的程序，为政府相关部门进行路线选择提供决策依据。