Accident analysis model based on Bayesian Network and Evidential Reasoning approach

In this paper, an accident analysis model is proposed to develop the cost-efficient safety measures for preventing accidents. The model comprises two parts. In the first part, a quantitative accident analysis model is built by integrating Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) with Bayesian Network (BN), which can be utilized to present the corresponding prevention measures. In the second part, the proposed prevention measures are ranked in a cost-effectiveness manner through Best-Fit method and Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach. A case study of vessel collision is analyzed as an illustration. The case study shows that the proposed model can be used to seek out accident causes and rank the derived safety measures from a cost-effectiveness perspective. The proposed model can provide accident investigators with a tool to generate cost-efficient safety intervention strategies.     

木制品企业粉尘爆炸灾害与防治

分析了木制品企业发生粉尘爆炸的潜在危险性，以某木制品企业的一起木材粉尘爆炸事故为例，对事故发生的过程和原因进行了仔细分析，在此基础上从预防和防护两个方面提出了防止类似系统发生火灾及粉尘爆炸事故的措施。     

Developing an external domino accident prevention framework: Hazwim

Empirical research on major accident safety in the second largest chemical cluster worldwide, the Antwerp port area, supports the design of a meta-technical framework for optimizing external domino prevention. First, the majority of Seveso top tier companies have expressed a willingness to cooperate more intensively to protect themselves against potential off-site major accidents. Second, Hazop, What–If analysis and the Risk Matrix, interesting building blocks for such a framework, are frequently used risk analysis techniques at Seveso lower tier and Seveso top tier companies. The developed framework, called Hazwim, integrates these three complementary techniques into an effective standardized risk analysis framework for the prevention of external xdomino accidents in an industrial area. The main strengths of Hazwim are its completeness and its cost-effectiveness. The combination of techniques on the one hand and qualitative and quantitative data on the other, offers a comprehensive up-to-date list of cross-company domino hazards and recommended actions in the area under consideration. The Hazwim framework offers support to prevention managers and safety policy makers concerning external domino prevention.     

Strategic accident reduction in an energy company and its resulting financial benefits

This study provides a case example of an energy company that prioritized occupational safety and health and accident reduction as long-term, strategic development targets. Furthermore, this study describes the monetary benefits of this strategic decision. Company-specific accident indicators and monetary costs and benefits are evaluated. During the observation period (2010–2016), strategic investments in occupational safety and health cost the company EUR 0.8 million. However, EUR 1.8 million were saved in the same period, resulting in a 2.20 cost–benefit ratio. The trend in cost savings is strongly positive. Annual accident costs were EUR 0.4 million lower in 2016 compared to costs in 2010. This study demonstrates that long-term, strategic commitment to occupational safety and health provides monetary value.     

2006-2010年我国危险化学品事故统计分析研究

本文基于＂十一五＂期间我国危险化学品事故统计数据,从事故类别、事故发生区域、事故发生时间、企业经济类型、危险化学品类别、危险化学品事故发生环节等方面进行分析,结果表明,中毒与窒息事故和爆炸事故占危险化学品事故主要类型,易燃液体、易燃气体、爆炸品和腐蚀性物质是引发危险化学品事故的主要危险物质类型,生产环节是事故发生的主要环节,违反操作规程或劳动纪律与设备设施工具附件有缺陷是导致事故的重要原因。从落实企业安全生产主体责任、提升本质安全化水平、开展重大危险源普查、建立安全监管网络、加强危险化学品产业布局、提高事故应急救援能力等方面提出了预防和控制危险化学品事故的对策建议。     

A process mapping model for calculating indirect costs of workplace accidents

This article follows an earlier one in which four criteria and four bases for the development of an indirect-cost calculation model adapted to the accuracy requirements and time constraints of workplace decision-makers were established. A two-level model for calculating indirect costs using process mapping of the organizational response to a workplace accident is presented. The model is based on data collected in interviews with those employees in charge of occupational health and safety in 10 companies of various sizes in different industry sectors. This model is the first to use process mapping to establish the indirect costs of workplace accidents. The approach allows easy identification of the duration and frequency of actions taken by stakeholders when a workplace accident occurs, facilitates the collection of the information needed to calculate indirect costs and yields a usable, precise result. A simple graphic representation of an organization's accident processes helps the user understand each accident's cost components, allowing the identification and reduction of inefficiencies in the overall process. Impact on Industry: By facilitating data collection and shortening the time needed to assess indirect costs of workplace accidents, this indirect cost calculation tool is better suited for workplace use than those currently available.     

An economic framework for assessing the impact of injuries in professional football

The process of risk management, which is used throughout industry and commerce, involves identifying work activities and hazards and estimating, evaluating and controlling the associated risks. Within professional football, injury rates are several orders of magnitude higher than those reported in other occupations. This sector, therefore, provides an ideal organisational setting for developing and testing theories of health and safety management. A major risk for clubs arises from players being unavailable for selection through injury, with the possible effect that this may have on the clubs’ playing and financial performances. A statistically based risk management model, which utilised four relationships involving the parameters of team-quality, team-performance, club-turnover and club-salary, was developed. The model was based on data from 91 league clubs in English professional football over the seasons 1993/1994–1997/1998. Significant (P<0.01) strong (r=0.80–0.97) correlations were obtained for four log-log relationships between the four parameters. The model, which incorporated a player quality variable, has been demonstrated to describe and assess the impact of players’ injuries on clubs’ playing and financial performances. It is proposed that the model could therefore be used as a basis for cost-benefit analyses of injury prevention strategies in professional football. The results presented support earlier reports, which describe the impact of accidents to employees on the financial performance of their employers. Similar economic frameworks may also be applicable within other organisational settings for assessing the costs of accidents and for use in cost benefit analyses.     

Characteristics of worker accidents on NYSDOT construction projects

INTRODUCTION: This paper aims at providing cost-effective safety measures to protect construction workers in highway work zones, based on real data. Two types of accidents that occur in work zones were: (a) construction work area accidents, and (b) traffic accidents involving construction worker(s). METHODOLOGY/RESULTS: A detailed analysis of work zone accidents involving 36 fatalities and 3,055 severe injuries to construction workers on New York State Department of Transportation (NYSDOT) construction projects from 1990 to 2001 established that five accident types: (a) Struck/Pinned by Large Equipment, (b) Trip or Fall (elevated), (c) Contact w/Electrical or Gas Utility, (d) Struck-by Moving/Falling Load, and (e) Crane/Lift Device Failure accounted for nearly 96% of the fatal accidents, nearly 63% of the hospital-level injury accidents, and nearly 91% of the total costs. These construction work area accidents had a total cost of $133.8 million. Traffic accidents that involve contractors' employees were also examined. Statistical analyses of the traffic accidents established that five traffic accident types: (a) Work Space Intrusion, (b) Worker Struck-by Vehicle Inside Work Space, (c) Flagger Struck-by Vehicle, (d) Worker Struck-by Vehicle Entering/Exiting Work Space, and (e) Construction Equipment Struck-by Vehicle Inside Work Space accounted for nearly 86% of the fatal, nearly 70% of the hospital-level injury and minor injury traffic accidents, and $45.4 million (79.4%) of the total traffic accident costs. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this paper provide real statistics on construction worker related accidents reported on construction work zones. Potential preventions based on real statistics have also been suggested. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The ranking of accident types, both within the work area as well as in traffic, will guide the heavy highway contractor and owner agencies in identifying the most cost effective safety preventions.     

Risk management in operations of petrochemical plants: Can better planning prevent major accidents and save money at the same time?

This paper presents an argument that improvement in operational safety can be achieved concurrently with increased operational efficiency. This is a fundamentally different viewpoint on the investment in safety. Traditionally, the cost of providing safety barriers is offset by the expected benefits of reducing the occurrence and severity of accidents. Our approach departs from this method of accounting for safety improvements and focuses on planning as a means of managing systems' response uncertainty and consequently reducing both major accident risk and the cost of operations. The scope of the paper is limited to interventions such as maintenance and repairs and defined in the context of major accident prevention e.g. hydrocarbon leaks. However, the developed methodology is general enough to be applied across the spectrum of process industry facilities and operations.     

多方博弈下起重作业人员有意不安全行为致因分析

为有效制定起重作业人员有意不安全行为防范措施,降低人为事故发生可能性,结合演化博弈理论,探讨不同策略选择下施工企业内部管理方、监管方及作业方的得益变化,建立各方期望效益函数;依据复制动态方程,构建多方演化博弈模型,分析各方策略选择演化趋势及均衡点,剖析作业人员有意不安全行为致因,并分别从各方角度制定作业人员有意不安全行为预防措施。结果表明:作业人员有意不安全行为不仅与自身风险、成本有关,且受管理方、监管方决策影响;管理方增加安全投入,提升作业人员事故损失承担比例;监管方选择合理监管方式严格监管作业行为;作业人员进行行为决策时权衡风险、成本、收益及各方决策,将有效减少作业人员有意不安全行为的发生。     

事故致因理论的研究与应用简评

阐明事故致因理论的重要性和应用情况对于促进其发展、应用及提高事故预防效果十分重要。通过分析国内外的重要观点得知,安全科学是事故预防的科学,事故致因理论是发现事故原因、有效预防事故的工具,当然具有特别的重要性;但事故致因理论研究在我国开展较晚,所以目前的研究与应用并不充分。综合以往文献,给出了事故致因理论的实质性科学含义是事故的原因定义、原因间、原因与事故间的逻辑关系,它们可形象地综合表达为事故致因模型,其获取过程中不可或缺的方法是对以往事故案例的原因分析;通过观察安全管理实务认识到,社会组织要有效管理其安全健康和环保业务,选择一种事故致因模型作为总体思路且连续运转,十分必要。     

Major accident hazard in bioenergy production

Some recent accidents involving the bioenergy production and feedstock supply chain raised concern on the safety of such technologies. A survey of major accidents related to the production of bioenergy (intended as biomass, bioliquids/biofuels and biogas) was carried out, and a data repository was built, based on past accident reports available in the open literature and in specific databases. Data analysis shows that major accidents are increasing in recent years and their number is growing faster than bioenergy production. The results obtained represent an early warning concerning the major accident hazard of bioenergies, and suggest the importance of risk awareness and safety culture in bioenergy production, in the perspective of a safe and sustainable exploitation of renewable resources.     

A tool for safety officers investigating “simple” accidents

Most workplace accidents that happen in enterprises are simple and seldom result in serious injuries. Very often these kinds of workplace accidents are not investigated, and if they are, then the investigation is very brief, with comments such as that it was the victim’s own fault or just an unfortunate situation which could not be helped. Most prevention analysis and investigation methods focus on high risks, such as explosion, fire, and lack of containment for chemicals.In the industrial world, such risks do give rise to disasters, albeit very seldom. Nevertheless, the fact is that simpler accidents normally caused by apparent banalities occur much more frequently and with a higher rate of fatalities, disablements and other serious injuries than the ostensibly most dangerous kinds of accidents.In 1999 a practical tool for use by safety officers was developed; this tool is based on the investigation methods applied in major accidents, but comprises a simpler and more user-friendly presentation. The tool involves three steps: Mapping the facts, analysing the events, and developing preventive solutions. Practical application of the tool has shown that it affords managers and workers a heightened insight into the cause of accidents, including those that seemed to be unavoidable, and that simple workplace accidents always have root causes on which preventive action can be focused. The problem is however that making a proper analysis is difficult and requires appropriate training, even in cases where the accidents seem to be very simple.     

Small enterprise owners’ accident causation attribution and prevention

Small enterprises have difficulty in the systematic prevention of accidents. This study explores how owners of small enterprises attribute accident causation and what they learn about accident prevention after an accident. Interviews were carried out with owners of 22 small (1–19 employees) construction and metal industry enterprises that recently had reported an accident with an expected injury absence of over two weeks. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. The results reveal that after a relatively serious accident the owners predominantly attribute the incident to unforeseeable circumstances, and secondarily to worker faults. A possible explanation is both self- and group-defensive attributions in order to avoid responsibility and blame. The reciprocal and close social relations between owners and workers make it difficult for the owners to be solely responsible for the accident. The study presents a paradox: learning from the accidents seems to be negative as the owners need to abstain from accident prevention in order to maintain that accidents are unforeseeable, and the injured worker returns to work under the same unsafe conditions as before the accident. The study indicates that efforts to improve accident prevention in small enterprises need to find ways to avoid defensive attribution in order to attain successful outcomes.     

聚类和灰色关联度在建筑施工事故影响因素分析中的应用

建筑业是高危行业,其安全生产状况一直受到社会各界的关注.针对建筑施工过程中监管重点难以把握、施工事故多发的现状,选取1997-2006年发生的建筑施工事故数据,以多发事故高处坠落为例,通过拆分、合并、剔除筛选出10种引发高处坠落施工事故的影响因素;通过建筑施工事故因素的聚类分析,获得三类影响因素,即“人—管理—物”;应用灰色关联度分析,对各类影响因素的灰色关联度进行排序,从而找出建筑施工过程的薄弱环节,为指导施工现场安全管理人员制定有针对性监管措施和预防建筑施工事故的发生提供方法支持.     

Overcoming the blame game to learn from major accidents: A systemic analysis of an Anhydrous Ammonia leakage accident

This article aims to demonstrate the need for changing the methods with which accidents are analyzed, if we truly wish to use what we uncover from them to learn and enrich our knowledge base of organizational management. The goal is to relinquish the broadly adopted and rather simplistic paradigm that accepts the search for human error and unsafe acts performed by workers, and produces “guilt diagnostics”. Instead, we use a systemic accident analysis methodology, based on the sociotechnical principle of understanding the real operating conditions in which accidents take place. In order to demonstrate the benefits of the theoretical framework, we compare the analyses of an Anhydrous Ammonia gas leakage accident in a fish processing plant using the traditional accident analysis model based on unsafe acts and the proposed systemic approach. The results favor the latter since it tends to be more reliable and offering useful recommendations to safety management processes, thus helping to prevent accidents, especially in complex systems.     

事故致因“2-4”模型及其事故原因因素编码研究

事故致因模型是用于事故原因分析和预防的重要理论依据,模型的可操作性是决定事故预防效果的重要影响因素。对目前国内研究较为持续和系统的事故致因"2-4"模型进行了深入研究,以增强其在事故分析时的可操作性。首先,研究了事故致因"2-4"模型中组织内、外部原因的各个阶段原因因素的划分情况;其次,根据得到的各阶段原因因素划分结果,对应用事故致因"2-4"模型分析事故原因的因素进行了编码;最后,以一起重大瓦斯爆炸事故为例,对事故致因"2-4"模型原因因素编码系统的有效性进行了实证研究。划分了事故致因"2-4"模型中的各原因模块中的原因因素,并得到了不安全动作和物态、习惯性不安全行为、安全管理体系、安全文化、外部因素等5个层级原因,确定了基于事故致因"2-4"模型的30个原因因素。对事故原因因素进行系统编码,提高了应用事故致因"2-4"模型进行事故原因分析和事故预防的可操作性,增强了其应用实践性。     

The functioning and status of the EC's major accident reporting system on industrial accidents

This paper describes the functioning and current status of the European Commission's Major Accident Reporting System (MARS), dedicated to collect in a consistent way data on major industrial accidents involving dangerous substances from the Member States of the European Union under the requirements of the `Seveso Directives', to analyse and statistically process them, and to distribute all non-confidential accidents data and analysis results to the Member States. This modern information exchange and analysis tool is made up of two connected parts: one for each local unit (i.e. for the Competent Authority of each Member State), and one central part for the European Commission. The local as well as the central parts of this network can serve both as data logging systems and, on different levels of complexity, as data analysis tools. The central database allows complex pattern analysis, identifying and analysing the succession of disruptive factors leading to an accident. On this basis, “lessons learned” can be formulated for the industry or regulatory bodies for further accident prevention. Results of various overall analyses of the contents of MARS are given. The availability of MARS data and analysis results is described.     

催化裂化装置火灾及爆炸事故后果分析

对石油化工企业典型生产装置--催化裂化装置发生火灾及爆炸事故后果进行分析,研究分析了催化裂化装置油浆泵泄漏引发池火灾和石油气泄漏引发无约束蒸气云爆炸两种事故的后果情况,给出这两种事故的各种伤亡半径,从而直观的为企业提供了事故后果情况,为企业的事故预防工作提供依据.