Confidence-based quantitative risk analysis for offshore accidental hydrocarbon release events

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) has been widely used to conduct the assessment of offshore accidental risks. However, the accuracy and validity of QRA is significantly affected by uncertainties when subjective judgments are involved. Therefore, it is unrealistic to determine the probability of a hazardous event by using one single explicit value when safety experts have a relatively low confidence level in their judgments. This paper proposes a new methodology for incorporating uncertainties into conventional QRA using the concept of confidence level. Offshore hydrocarbon release hazards are focused on and a barrier and operational risk analysis (BORA-Release) method is selected as the basic model to illustrate the proposed methodology. A left–right (L–R) bell-shaped fuzzy number is employed and its membership curve is able to control its shape to represent different confidence levels. As to the complex geometry of the bell-shaped fuzzy number, an α-cut operation is introduced to conduct the arithmetic operations of the fuzzy number, and a defuzzification method with total integral value is chosen to match the α-cut operations and acquire complete information for the fuzzy numbers. In the meantime, an optimism index is used to describe the attitude of the decision-maker. One case study is provided in this paper to demonstrate the implementation of this method.     

Methods for more accurate determination of explosion severity parameters

Accurate determination of explosion severity parameters (p_max, (dp/dt)_max, and K_St) is essential for dust explosion assessment, identification of mitigation strategy, and design of mitigation measure of proper capacity. The explosion severity parameters are determined according to standard methodology however variety of dust handled and operation circumstances may create practical challenge on the optimal test method and subsequent data interpretation. Two methods are presented: a statistical method, which considers all test results in determination of explosion severity parameters and a method that corrects the results for differences of turbulence intensity. The statistical method also calculates experimental error (uncertainty) that characterises the experimental spread, allows comparison to other dust samples and may define quality determination threshold. The correction method allows to reduce discrepancies between results from 1 m³ vessel and 20-l sphere caused by difference in the turbulence intensity level. Additionally new experimental test method for difficult to inject samples together with its analysis is described. Such method is a versatile tool for explosion interpretation in test cases where different dispersion nozzle is used (various turbulence level in the test chamber) because of either specific test requirements or being “difficult dust sample”.     

基于模糊综合评价法的电力施工应急演练效果评估技术研究

应急演练效果评估是发现应急演练中存在的问题,完善应急准备工作,使应急演练形成闭环的关键一步。针对目前电力施工领域应急演练效果评估尚无统一的评价标准,本文通过总结电力施工基本特点,运用层次分析法与模糊综合评价法,以策划准备、演练实施、评估改进为主线构建了相关评估指标体系,将应急演练效果评估分为3个准则层(一级指标),12个指标层(二级指标),分析了不同权重对于评估结果的影响并进行了实例应用,对于电力施工企业开展应急演练效果评估工作具有指导意义。     

基于模糊层次分析法的民用机场安全风险管理

以某一民用机场为例,基于"人-机-环境-管理"的系统工程理论,分析该机场影响飞行安全的各影响因素。利用三角模糊数来表征专家判断信息,构造三角模糊数互补判断矩阵。依据模糊层次分析法,对各影响因素进行单排序和总排序,得到其重要性的排序。模糊层次分析法可以更加客观地描述专家判断的模糊性,并且计算过程简单。基于模糊层次分析法的安全风险管理不仅能够客观地评估民航的安全状态,而且对于有重点地改善民用机场安全有着积极的作用。     

A new simple methodology for evaluation of explosion risk in underground coal mines

The key objective of this paper is the presentation of a new risk assessment tool for underground coal mines based on a simplified semi-quantitative estimation and assessment method.In order to determine the risk of explosion of any work process or activity in underground coal mines it is necessary to assess the risk. The proposed method is based on a Risk Index obtained as a product of three factors: frequency of each individual scenario P_ucm, associated severity consequences C_ucm and exposure time to explosive atmospheres E_ucm. The influence of exposure time is usually not taken into account up to now. Moreover, the exposure to explosive atmospheres may affect factors of hazardous event probability as much as its consequences. There are many definitions of exposure to explosive atmospheres but in the case of underground coal mines the exposure is defined as frequency risk of firedamp and coal dust. The risk estimation and risk assessment are based on the developed of a risk matrix.The proposed methodology allows not only the estimation of the explosion risk but also gives an approach to decide if the proposal investment is well-justified or not in order to improve safety.     

Decision support for prioritizing energy technologies against high oil prices: A fuzzy analytic hierarchy process approach

To provide national energy security in the 21st century, establishing a long-term strategic energy technology development is essential through selection and specialization. We established a strategic energy technology roadmap (ETRM) taking economic spin-offs, commercial potential, inner capacity, and technical spin-off into account. In this research, we suggest an integrated multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach, which is composed of more than two criteria as the assessment of the optimal alternatives and solutions in the real world with the fuzzy theory and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), to prioritize the weights of energy technologies of ETRM as we allocate R&D budget using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. Building technology is the most preferred technology in the sector of energy technologies against high oil prices. And the coal technology and transportation technology follows and take the 2nd and 3rd place with the fuzzy AHP approach.     

Prioritizing highway safety improvement projects: A multi-criteria model and case study with SafetyAnalyst

This paper presents a multi-criteria model for prioritizing highway safety improvement projects, in which a set of criteria related to the project’s technical, economic, and social impacts are properly weighted in consideration. The proposed model features an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) framework to tackle the multi-criteria decision making problem. Different from the conventional AHP, this paper adds a fuzzy scale level between the criteria level and the alternative level, which offers the advantage of preventing the vagueness and uncertainty on judgments of the decision-maker(s). Such a unique modeling feature is further embedded with a non-linear optimization formulation to maximize the consistency in pair-wise comparison and weight estimation for each criterion. Case study results reveal that the proposed model is efficient not only for selecting the most suitable project for a specific site, but also for determining the priorities for implementing those suitable projects among multiple sites given the budget constraint. Comparative study between the proposed model and the existing ranking methods has also indicated its capability to capture the comprehensive impacts of all contributory factors which have been neglected by most existing single multi-criteria approaches during the safety project selection process. The clarity of model inputs, ease of synthesizing the final score of each candidate project, and the interpretation of results with respect to different selection criteria offer its best potential to be used as an effective tool for highway safety managers to assess and refine the safety improvement investments.     

Pythagorean fuzzy VIKOR-based approach for safety risk assessment in mine industry

Introduction: Underground mining is considered one of the most hazardous industries and is often associated with serious work-related fatalities; this paper addresses job-related hazards and associated risks. Method: A risk assessment approach is proposed (Pythagorean fuzzy environment) and a case study is carried out in an underground copper and zinc mine. Results: Results of the study demonstrate that hazards can be categorized into different risk levels via compromised solutions of the fuzzy approach. Conclusion: The study provides a theoretical contribution by suggesting a Pythagorean fuzzy numbers-based VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (PFVIKOR) approach. Moreover, it contributes to improving overall safety levels of underground mining by considering and advising on the potential hazards of risk management. Practical applications: The proposed approach will improve the existing safety risk assessment mechanism in underground copper and zinc mining.     

Risk analysis for oil & gas pipelines: A sustainability assessment approach using fuzzy based bow-tie analysis

Vast amounts of oil & gas (O&G) are consumed around the world everyday that are mainly transported and distributed through pipelines. Only in Canada, the total length of O&G pipelines is approximately 100,000 km, which is the third largest in the world. Integrity of these pipelines is of primary interest to O&G companies, consultants, governmental agencies, consumers and other stakeholder due to adverse consequences and heavy financial losses in case of system failure. Fault tree analysis (FTA) and event tree analysis (ETA) are two graphical techniques used to perform risk analysis, where FTA represents causes (likelihood) and ETA represents consequences of a failure event. ‘Bow-tie’ is an approach that integrates a fault tree (on the left side) and an event tree (on the right side) to represent causes, threat (hazards) and consequences in a common platform. Traditional ‘bow-tie’ approach is not able to characterize model uncertainty that arises due to assumption of independence among different risk events. In this paper, in order to deal with vagueness of the data, the fuzzy logic is employed to derive fuzzy probabilities (likelihood) of basic events in fault tree and to estimate fuzzy probabilities (likelihood) of output event consequences. The study also explores how interdependencies among various factors might influence analysis results and introduces fuzzy utility value (FUV) to perform risk assessment for natural gas pipelines using triple bottom line (TBL) sustainability criteria, namely, social, environmental and economical consequences. The present study aims to help owners of transmission and distribution pipeline companies in risk management and decision-making to consider multi-dimensional consequences that may arise from pipeline failures. The research results can help professionals to decide whether and where to take preventive or corrective actions and help informed decision-making in the risk management process. A simple example is used to demonstrate the proposed approach.     

Fuzzy optimization of multi-period carbon capture and storage systems with parametric uncertainties

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an important technology option for reducing industrial greenhouse gas emissions. In practice, CO₂ sources are easy to characterize, while the estimation of relevant properties of storage sites, such as capacity and injection rate limit (i.e., injectivity), is subject to considerable uncertainty. Such uncertainties need to be accounted for in planning CCS deployment on a large scale for effective use of available storage sites. In particular, the uncertainty introduces technical risks that may result from overestimating the limits of given storage sites. In this work, a fuzzy mixed integer linear program (FMILP) is developed for multi-period CCS systems, accounting for the technical risk arising from uncertainties in estimates of sink parameters, while still attaining satisfactory CO₂ emissions reduction. In the model, sources are assumed to have precisely known CO₂ flow rates and operating lives, while geological sinks are characterized with imprecise fuzzy capacity and injectivity data. Three case studies are then presented to illustrate the model. Results of these examples illustrate the tradeoff inherent in planning CCS systems under parametric uncertainty.     

基于犹豫直觉模糊集-TOPSIS的危险品多式联运风险评估

为了对危险品的多式联运系统风险进行评估,首先在"人、机、管、环"4M理论的基础上,将多式联运中"转运"这一特殊流程考虑进去,以"人、机、管、环、转运"这5个因素作为决策问题中的属性;其次,采用犹豫直觉模糊语言集为决策者的初始决策矩阵赋值,并利用均值-标准差的汉明距离来衡量两个犹豫直觉模糊语言数之间的距离;然后,以危险品多式联运系统中的风险为标准,采用基于犹豫直觉模糊语言集的TOPSIS方法进行不同方案的决策。最后,以磷酸在宜昌-衢州之间的运输为案例,对4种常用运输方案进行风险评估,以综合评价指数进行对比。结果表明,在先水路后铁路、先水路后公路、先公路后铁路、先铁路后公路4种方案中,从宜昌到衢州之间先公路后铁路的运输方式所得综合评价值最高,应选择方案3。     

Fuzzy multiphase Markov chains to handle uncertainties in safety systems performance assessment

In this article, we address the problem of imprecision in assessing the performance of safety instrumented systems (SIS) using fuzzy multiphase Markov chains. The elementary probabilities usually considered in Markov chains are replaced by fuzzy numbers. It allows experts to express their uncertainty concerning the basic parameters of systems and to evaluate the impact of this uncertainty on the SIS performance. We show how the imprecision induces significant changes on the Safety Integrity Level of the SIS. The proposed method ensures the relevance of the results. This is validated by a comparison with the results of an enhanced Markov Analysis.     

Refinery wastewater degradation with titanium dioxide,zinc oxide,and hydrogen peroxide in a photocatalytic reactor

This paper presents the photo-catalytic degradation of real refinery wastewater from National Refinery Limited (NRL) in Karachi, Pakistan, using TiO₂, ZnO, and H₂O₂. The pretreatment of the refinery effluent was carried out on site and pretreated samples were tested at 32–37 °C in a stirrer bath reactor by using ultra-violet photo oxidation process. The degradation of wastewater was measured as a change in initial chemical oxygen demand (COD) and with time. Optimal conditions were obtained for catalyst type, and pH. The titanium dioxide proved to be very effective catalysts in photo-catalytic degradation of real refinery wastewater. The maximum degradation achieved was 40.68% by using TiO₂ at 37 °C and pH of 4, within 120 min of irradiations. When TiO₂ was combined with H₂O₂ the degradation decreased to 25.35%. A higher reaction rate was found for titanium dioxide. The results indicate that for real refinery wastewater, TiO₂ is comparatively more effective than ZnO and H₂O₂. The experiments indicated that first-order kinetics can successfully describe the photo-catalytic reaction. The ANOVA results for the model showed satisfactory and reasonable adjustment of the second-order regression model with the experimental data. The ANOVA results also showed that pH is significant than reaction time and catalyst dosage of TiO₂; and in case of ZnO, reaction time is significant than pH and catalyst dosage. This study proves that real refinery wastewater reacts differently than synthetic refinery wastewater, oil field produced water or oil water industrial effluent.     

A numerical study of the auto-ignition temperatures of CH4–Air,C3H8–Air,CH4–C3H8–Air and CH4–CO2–Air mixtures

The auto-ignition temperature (AIT) is an important parameter in the process industries. In order to ensure a safe working environment in process industries, it is important to predict the AIT of combustible gases or vapors. In this study, the AITs of natural gas mixtures (CH₄–Air, C₃H₈–Air, CH₄–C₃H₈–Air and CH₄–CO₂–Air) are calculated based on a detailed kinetic model. To create a more practical model, different ignition criteria and convective heat transfer coefficients are investigated and compared against one another, resulting in the temperature criterion and a convective heat transfer coefficient of h = 50 W/(m² K). The results showed that the AITs of CH₄–Air and C₃H₈–Air decrease with an increase of equivalence ratios. While the propane ratio increasing, the AIT of CH₄–C₃H₈–Air decreasing. Reaction path analysis of natural gas mixtures (CH₄–C₃H₈) was also carried out to explain this phenomenon, yielding results showing that C₃H₈ is the main reaction during the ignition induction period. In addition the AIT of CH₄ increases slowly in positive correlation with CO_2, which plays a role of an inert gas. Comparing the results with literature work revealed a deviation of about 10%. Thus, it can be reasonably concluded that the AIT of a low hydrocarbons mixtures such as natural gas can be reliably predicted with detailed kinetic model.     

An experimental investigation of an inertization effectiveness of fluorinated hydrocarbons in relation to premixed H2–N2O and CH4–N2O flames

An experimental investigation of an influence of trifluoromethane CHF_3, pentafluoroethane C₂HF₅ and perfluorobutane C₄F₁₀ on near-limit hydrogen-nitrous oxide and methane-nitrous oxide premixed flames was performed. Flammability limits, a maximum explosion pressure ΔP_max, maximum rate of pressure rise (dP/dt)_max, and a laminar burning velocity S_u were determined. The flammability area in the case of N₂O as an oxidizer is substantially wider than for the case of the oxidizer which is the mixture of oxygen and nitrogen with the O₂ content 25% (vol.). The dependences of S_u, ΔP_max and (dP/dt)_max on concentration of the fluorinated hydrocarbons are characterizing by an availability of maxima which positions are close to the peak concentrations of the flammability regions. A qualitative interpretation of the results obtained is given.     

Experimental study on ignitability of pure aluminum powders due to electrostatic discharges and Nitrogen's effect

In order to prevent dust explosions due to electrostatic discharges (ESD), this paper reports the minimum ignition energy (MIE) of aluminum powders in the air and the effective nitrogen (N₂) concentration for the inert technique. The Hartman vertical-tube apparatus and five kinds of different sized pure aluminum powders (median particle size, D50; 8.53 μm–51.2 μm) were used in this study. The statistic minimum ignition energy (MIE_s) of the most sensitive aluminum powder used in this study was 5 mJ, which was affected by the powder particle size (D50; 8.53 μm). In the case of aluminum powder, the inerting effects of N₂ were quite different from the polymer powders. The MIE of aluminum powder barely changed until the N₂ concentration was 89% in comparison with that of the normal air. When the N₂ concentration was 90%, the MIE of aluminum powders suddenly exceeded 1000 mJ, which does not occur easily with ESD in the industrial process.     

Application of a trapezoidal fuzzy AHP method for work safety evaluation and early warning rating of hot and humid environments

Hot and humid environments are prevalent in many industries. People working in hot and humid environments are at great risk of specific heat-related disorders, the productivity decrease and safety problems. In order to guarantee workers’ health and safety, safety evaluation and early warning rating of the hot and humid environments are studied in this paper. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method is proposed to evaluate the work safety in hot and humid environments. Trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are adopted to handle inherent uncertainty and imprecision of the data involved in decision process. Within the proposed methodology, a decision group is firstly established. A safety evaluation framework containing three factors (work, environment, and workers) and ten sub-factors are established. The fuzzy weights of the factors and sub-factors are calculated based on the pair-wise comparisons. Then the fuzzy evaluating vectors of the sub-factors and factors can be calculated according to the initial evaluation data. Therefore, the comprehensive safety index, safety grade and early warning grade can be determined. An example is given to demonstrate the proposed method. The results demonstrate the engineering practicability and effectiveness of this method in extreme environment evaluation.     

Thermodynamic method for the prediction of solid CO2 formation from multicomponent mixtures

The increase in GHG concentration has a direct effect on global climate conditions. Among the possible technologies to mitigate GHG emissions, CCS is being accepted to gain emission reduction. Such technology also involves cryogenic CO₂ capture processes based on CO₂ freeze-out or where the formation of solid CO₂ must be avoided. Captured CO₂ is usually transported in pipelines for the reinjection.The risk associated to the release of CO₂ is due to the changing temperatures and pressures the system may experience, which can lead to the deposition of solid CO₂ where it must be avoided. Prolonged exposure to dry ice can cause severe skin damage and its resublimation could pose a danger of hypercapnia. It is, thus, necessary to build up a tool able to predict the conditions in which CO₂ can freeze-out.A thermodynamic methodology based on cubic EoSs has been developed which is able to predict solid–liquid–vapor equilibrium of CO₂ mixtures with n-alkanes or H₂S which are usually found in equipment for acidic gas, mainly natural gas, treatment.The focus is a detailed analysis of the method performances when more than two components are present since, for such a case, literature does not provide significant modeling results.     

利用模糊集理论评价公路客运站安全管理工作

利用模糊集理论建立一种模糊综合评价方法来评价交通运输系统内部的公路客运站安全管理工作。分别通过评价语言变量和权重语言变量将评价指标体系的定性指标和定量指标及权重全部转化成三角形模糊数,克服定性与定量指标不具有可比性的缺点,使评价更客观、精确。基于最优度概念,将权重模糊评价矩阵转化成模糊单一评价矩阵,避免传统模糊数之间比较的复杂性和不精确性。考虑到评价者在模糊评价环境下对风险的态度,将乐观系数引入评价的过程。采用TOPSIS方法计算出评价方案的综合评价分数并进行排序。结合桂林市10个客运站安全管理工作评价实例,通过改变权重值对评价结果进行敏感性分析。方法概念清晰,计算过程直观与简单,评价结果公正与合理,不但可在交通系统内推广,同样也可适合于其他各领域模糊环境下的评价问题。     

A numerical modelling of an influence of CH4, N2, CO2 and steam on a laminar burning velocity of hydrogen in air

The influence of additives of various chemical natures (CH₄, N₂, CO₂, and steam) at a laminar burning velocity S_u of hydrogen in air has been studied by numerical modelling of a flat flame propagation in a gaseous mixture. It was found that the additives of methane to hydrogen–air mixtures cause as a rule monotonic reduction in the S_u value with the exception of very lean mixtures (fuel equivalence ratio ? = 0.4), for which a dependence of the laminar burning velocity on the additive's concentration has a maximum. In the case of the chemically inert additives (N₂, CO₂, H₂O) the laminar burning velocity of rich near-limit hydrogen–air flames drops monotonically with an increase in the additive's content, but no more than 1.5 times, and the adiabatic flame temperature changes slowly in this case. In the case of methane as the additive, the laminar burning velocity is diminished approximately 5 times with an increase in the adiabatic flame temperature from 1200 to 2100 K. Deviations from the known empirical rule of the approximate constancy of the laminar burning velocity for near-limit flames are shown.