高压隔离开关地震灾害评估

震害表明,电力系统在地震时破坏严重.如何预测地震中电气设备的损伤风险,是生命线工程领域的重要课题.进行了高压隔离开关的地震灾害评估.采用具有柔性节点的有限元法建立设备的模型,用弹性时程分析法进行了设备的地震反应分析,在此基础上,采用强度破坏指标,计算了设备的地震破坏概率.以GW4-220高压隔离开关为例,进行了其地震灾害评估,绘制了震害率曲线,可用以预测该型号隔离开关的震害情况.     

严子坪古滑坡的复活进程与稳定性

根据优势面控坡的分析原理,综合摄绘,浅层地震,大比例尺地质填图以及实验分析与模拟反算研究结果分析,严子坪古滑坡复活是在内外动力地质作用下发生的.与古滑坡成正交的断层为滑作提供了地下水的通道,控制了滑坡体的形态,形成了滑床.人为破坏改变了自然斜坡的稳定状态,产生了初始的拉裂缝.植被破坏恶化了水文地质环境,加速了裂缝扩展的过程,最终导致古滑坡的复活.分析结果表明,目前滑坡体仍在活动.     

干旱区土壤盐渍化及其对生态环境的损害评估——以新疆沙雅县为例

沙雅县是我国重要的棉粮基地之一,但长期以来土壤盐渍化与次生盐渍化一直是制约农业发展的关键因素之一.介绍了新疆干旱区沙雅县土壤盐渍化的状况,分析了引起土壤盐渍化的因素,并进行了土壤盐渍化对生态环境损害的经济评估.沙雅县的盐渍化土壤主要分布在渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲,其中以托依堡乡、英买里乡和红旗乡最为严重.盐渍化土壤类型主要为典型盐土、草甸盐土、盐化潮土和残余盐土.导致盐渍化的因素有气候、地形、水文地质、母质和母岩等自然因素,以及灌溉方式和耕作制度等人为因素.提出了该县盐渍地改良的措施.     

山东半岛城市群生态系统安全评价

运用生态足迹的理论和方法,分析了山东半岛城市群内各城市2003年的生态足迹,并对该地区生态系统的安全进行了评价.结果显示,该城市群存在着巨大的生态赤字,生态系统安全性脆弱,生产、生活强度严重超过了其生态系统的自然承载能力.分析了产生生态赤字的原因,并提出了相应对策.     

我们在行动——地震应急救援专题研究班

地震应急救援是应对地震灾害的直接手段.自2000年将地震应急救援纳人防震减灾三大体系以来,各级政府和社会各界更加重视地震应急救援工作,各方面工作取得了很大进展.成功应对了近百次国内外破坏性地震,实施了有效的应急和救援行动.     

利用遥感手段监测草场退化

利用遥感手段监测草场地上生物量的变化,对防止草场退化,保护生态环境具有重要的意义.利用TM数据建立了青海省达日县1986年和2000年的土地利用现状图形库和属性库,统计出了该县的各种土地覆盖类型面积值.研究结果表明,14年来,达日县草地面积减少了830 hm<'2>,草场退化形势严峻.研究同时表明,利用遥感数据监测草原具有其它手段不可比拟的优势.     

秦岭山区某路基沉陷成因及对策

路基坍塌是秦岭山区公路的主要病害之一.以108国道K1561+250段路基沉陷为例,结合工程地质和水文地质条件对其形成的原因进行了分析,认为该段路基的沉陷与地下水和气候条件有密切关系.在考虑暴雨对坡体影响的基础上,对该坡体进行了稳定性计算评价.以此为依据,确定了锚固工程辅以排水的整治方案,并按工程要求进行了整治设计,经工程整治后检验,该方案起到了稳固坡体的作用.     

川藏公路南线然乌-鲁朗段工程地质分区

川藏公路南线然乌-鲁朗段工程地质条件极差,致使该地区各种地质灾害十分严重.采用岩石工程系统(RES)方法对川藏公路南线然乌-鲁朗段进行了半定量的工程地质分区.首先,通过现场调查,根据地质灾害特点、工程地质条件和实践经验,对川藏公路南线然乌-鲁朗段进行了初步工程地质分区.然后在多因素相互作用关系矩阵基础上,定义了工程地质条件评价因子(EGAF),根据EGAF,对每个亚区的工程地质条件进行了半定量的评价,验证了初步工程地质分区的正确性.最后,将研究区分成了3个区和9个亚区,并绘制了相应的工程地质分区图.     

基于保户和保险公司共享的最佳巨灾保险

采用数学模型方法研究巨灾保险,提出了保险合同怎样创新的问题.该问题的提出有利于解决巨灾保险供应不足的弊端.对保户而言,这一创新将拥有更大的弹性,进而改善其福利.通过分解巨灾风险发生的频率和损害程度,说明了保险合同怎样设计才对保户最有利.最后,在同时考虑风险发生的频率和严重性的情况下,得出了一般化模型.     

滑坡转化为泥石流机理研究综述

对国内外有关滑坡转化为泥石流的机理的研究做了全面的综述,重点介绍了国外最新的研究成果,阐明了今后研究的方向.滑坡转化为泥石流机理的研究,处于滑坡动力学与泥石流形成学的交叉点,既是学科的边缘问题,也是学科的前沿问题.滑坡转化为泥石流的过程是一个和土体液化密切相关的流态化过程,是土体和水体强烈相互作用的结果.滑坡直接转化为泥石流的机理的两个核心问题是超静孔压的产生和超静孔压的保持.Iverson对这一问题的研究直接促进了滑坡流态化理论的发展,并形成了最新的泥石流运动模型--库伦混合流理论,是对传统的基于流变关系的泥石流模型的重大突破.土体中粘性颗粒对滑坡直接转化为泥石流过程的影响,需要进一步进行研究.滑坡转化为沟谷泥石流是一个更为复杂的过程,是今后研究的重点.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Cholera in Sudan: An account of an epidemic in a refugee camp in eastern Sudan, May-June 1985

In 1985 cholera has been a serious problem in the horn of Africa, particularly affecting the many famine victims and refugees in that region. In this paper the history of cholera in Africa is briefly summarized, as is the background to the current refugee situation in eastern Sudan. A cholera epidemic involving 1,175 cases in two adjacent refugee camps in eastern Sudan is described. In this epidemic there were thirteen inpatient deaths and thirty-eight known home deaths from cholera. The management of the epidemic is described in detail. Overall an average of 8 1. of intravenous fluid was used per case, a higher figure than was anticipated, probably because of the unexpected degree of vomiting and the shortage of trained nursing staff.
The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed.     

Risk and the neoliberal state: why post-Mitch lessons didn't reduce El Salvador's earthquake losses

Although El Salvador suffered light losses from Hurricane Mitch in 1998, it benefited from the increased international aid and encouragement for advance planning, especially mitigation and prevention interventions. Thus, one would have supposed, El Salvador would have been in a very advantageous position, able more easily than its economically crippled neighbours, Honduras and Nicaragua, to implement the 'lessons of Mitch'. A review of the recovery plan tabled by the El Salvador government following the earthquakes of early 2001 shows that despite the rhetoric in favour of 'learning the lessons of Mitch', very little mitigation and prevention had actually been put in place between the hurricane (1998) and the earthquakes (2001). The recovery plan is analysed in terms of the degree to which it deals with root causes of disaster vulnerability, namely, the economic and political marginality of much of the population and environmental degradation. An explanation for the failure to implement mitigation and preventive actions is traced to the adherence by the government of El Salvador to an extreme form of neoliberal, free market ideology, and the deep fissures and mistrust in a country that follow a long and bloody civil war.     

A retrospective statistical review of deaths owing to migration through the southeasternmost land borders of the European Union,Greece 2000–14

The land borders of Evros, Greece, have been a common entry point for undocumented migrants on their way to Europe through Turkey. Adverse conditions, however, have resulted in many human casualties over the years. On the Greek side, 334 cadavers were retrieved between 2000 and 2014. This study provides a detailed forensic account of the humanitarian disaster in Evros to create an official scientific record of the situation. It showcases the gravity of the global issue of migration relating to health and mortality, and encourages communication and continual improvement of the approach and patterns of practices surrounding the subject. A retrospective statistical research review was conducted of border‐related fatalities between 2000 and 2014, assessing the age and gender of victims, the cause of death, the location of bodies, identification rates, and country of origin. Age ranged generally from 24 to 29 years, but infants and children were among the deceased.     

Where the exception confirms the rule: The cyclones of 1982-1983 in French Polynesia

The island groups of French Polynesia, which had not experienced any really devastating cyclones since the beginning of the century, were hard hit several times between December 1982 and April 1983. This paper reviews the cost of damage from these cyclones and shows how lowered public awareness of the hazard in a low-frequency area combined with the special economic conditions prevailing in the Territory to make the total cost much higher than it need have been. Ways and means of rehabilitation are analyzed. The development of the thermal imbalance in the Pacific, which appears to have triggered this series of natural disasters, only seemingly exceptional, is briefly discussed.     

Epidemiology of tornado destruction in rural northern Bangladesh: risk factors for death and injury

The epidemiology of tornado-related disasters in the developing world is poorly understood. An August 2005 post-tornado cohort study in rural Bangladesh identified elevated levels of death and injury among the elderly (≥ 60 years of age) (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 8.9 (95 per cent confidence interval (CI): 3.9-20.2) and AOR = 1.6 (95 per cent CI: 1.4-1.8), respectively), as compared to 15-24 year-olds, and among those outdoors versus indoors during the tornado (AOR = 10.4 (95 per cent CI: 5.5-19.9) and AOR = 6.6 (95 per cent CI: 5.8-7.5), respectively). Females were 1.24 times (95 per cent CI: 1.15-1.33) more likely to be injured than males. Elevated risk of injury was significantly associated with structural damage to the house and tin construction materials. Seeking treatment was protective against death among the injured, odds ratio = 0.08 (95 per cent CI: 0.03-0.21). Further research is needed to develop injury prevention strategies and to address disparities in risk between age groups and between men and women.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Vested Interest theory and disaster preparedness

Three studies were designed to extend a combination of vested interest theory (VI) and the extended parallel process model of fear appeals (EPPM) to provide formative research for creating more effective disaster preparedness social action campaigns. The aim was to develop an effective VI scale for assessing individual awareness and ‘vestedness’ relevant to disaster preparedness. Typical preparedness behaviours are discussed with emphasis on earthquakes and tornados in particular. Brief overviews of VI and the EPPM are offered, and findings are presented from three studies (one dealing with earthquakes, and two with tornados) conducted to determine the factor structure of the key VI components involved, and to develop and test subscales derived from the two theories. The paper finishes with a discussion of future research needs and suggestions on how the new subscales may be applied in the design and execution of more effective disaster preparedness campaigns.     

Complexity,continuity and change: livelihood resilience in the Darfur region of Sudan

Darfur farming and pastoralist livelihoods are both adaptations to the environmental variability that characterises the region. This article describes this adaptation and the longer‐term transformation of these specialised livelihoods from the perspective of local communities. Over several decades farmers and herders have experienced a continuous stream of climate, conflict and other shocks, which, combined with wider processes of change, have transformed livelihoods and undermined livelihood institutions. Their well‐rehearsed specialist strategies are now combined with new strategies to cope. These responses help people get by in the short term but risk antagonising not only their specialist strategies but also those of others. A combination of factors has undermined the former integration between farming and pastoralism and their livelihood institutions. Efforts to build resilience in similar contexts must take a long‐term view of livelihood adaptation as a specialisation, and consider the implications of new strategies for the continuity and integration of livelihood specialisations.