火山喷发的气体灾害

火山喷发是一种壮观的自然景象,其喷发类型多种多样。火山喷发不仅可以改变地貌,带来一些矿产资源,更多的是给自然界带来灾害。火山喷发一般都同时喷出气体,强火山喷发巨量的气体喷入空中,会给全球气候和环境造成极大的灾害。     

五大连池火山危险性分析

针对五大连池火山危险性问题进行了一系列的地球物理反演和分析,通过对现代岩交流心概念和国外活火山实例剖析,采用岩浆固结的Ｓｔｅｆａｎ问题的葩演了岩浆房的固结曲线和固结时间：引入ＳＦＴ理论探讨了五大连池火山岩浆碎屑化机制;利用壳幔结构化Ｒ值的分析方法分析了五大连池火山区地壳稳定性;采用火山区卫星重力异常剖面的分析方法探讨了五大连池火山区地幔物质活动性,结合五大连池火山现代喷发的史料分析,模拟了五连池火     

长白山天池火山的研究现状与展望

较详细地介绍了近年来长白山天池火山喷发历史、火山形成机制、火山系统的探测和火山灾害的研究现状，指出了当前研究中存在的一些主要问题。建议今后应加强火山活动历史研究；探测岩浆作用及其动态变化，限定火山失稳条件；研究岩浆作用和火山触发机制；开展火山作用的试验模拟和火山灾害区划的定量模拟研究；建立火山灾害预警系统，制定火山灾害应急预案，以达到减轻火山灾害的目的。     

Satellite remote sensing as a tool in Lahar disaster management

At least 40,000 deaths have been attributed to historic lahars (volcanic mudflows). The most recent lahar disaster occurred in 1998 at Casita volcano, Nicaragua, claiming over 2,500 lives. Lahars can cover large areas and be highly destructive, and constitute a challenge for disaster management. With infrastructure affected and access frequently impeded, disaster management can benefit from the synoptic coverage provided by satellite imagery. This potential has been recognisedfor other types of natural disasters, but limitations are also known. Dedicated satellite constellations for disaster response and management have been proposed as one solution. Here we investigate the utility of currently available and forthcoming optical and radar sensors as tools in lahar disaster management. Applied to the Casita case, we find that imagery available at the time could not have significantly improved disaster response. However, forthcoming satellites, especially radar, will improve the situation, reducing the benefit of dedicated constellations.     

火山灾害及其监测预防

本文阐明火山灾害是一种重大自然灾害,给人民生命财产造成严重损失。文中指出当前火山活动进入新的活跃期,提出我国火山灾害的潜在危险。我国许多休眠火山区,正在成为新的经济开发区和旅游疗养、开发地热和建材资源的新兴城镇,人口迅速增加,经济蓬勃发展。但还没有采取有效的火山监测研究和防灾措施。作者建议,应把火山监测研究纳入政府防灾日程,制定规划,拨出专款,把防御火山灾害同国土开发,经济建设结合起来。     

Multiple visions of Indonesia's mud volcano: understanding representations of disaster across discursive settings

The Lapindo mudflow is one of the most controversial disasters in Indonesian history. Despite its unique biophysical features, most consider the mudflow a social disaster as scientific conflicts about its main trigger have evolved into legal disputes over accountability and rights. This paper examines this ‘trigger debate’, the stakes of scientific contention and the broader social and natural dynamics that shape the terms of this debate. A Latourian impulse drives this analysis, which aims to improve both understandings of—and responses to—complex disasters. This paper also notes that the stakes of representation extend to constructions of its stakeholders, especially to victims. As socionatural disasters become an increasingly common feature of the contemporary world, from mud volcanoes to extreme weather events caused by global warming, it is more important than ever to understand the dynamics of representing disasters and stakeholders.     

Volcanic Disaster Mitigation in the Philippines: Experience from Mt. Pinatubo

Considerable progress has been made in volcanic disaster mitigation in the Philippines during the last four decades, since the devastating Hibok-Hibok eruption in 1951 and the establishment of the Commission on Volcanology (COMVOL), the forerunner of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) in 1952. The management of the Pinatubo Volcano eruption crisis of 1991-92 marks the highest point in the development of volcanic disaster mitigation in the country. State-of-the-art volcano monitoring techniques and instruments were applied; the eruption was accurately predicted; hazards zonation maps were prepared and disseminated a month before the violent explosions; an alert and warning system was designed and implemented; and the disaster response machinery was mobilized on time. The unprecedented magnitude and lingering nature of the hazards, however, and their widespread, long-term impacts have sorely tested the capability of the country's volcanic disaster mitigation systems. In particular, the lahar threat has triggered controversies and put decision makers in a dilemma of choosing between adaptive versus confrontational/control approaches. At least three strategies have been articulated and adopted in varying degrees and forms: (1) the establishment of a lahar monitoring-warning-evacuation system to deal with the lahar problem on an emergency basis; (2) relocation of settlements from the hazard zones; and (3) installation of engineering countermeasures to control/divert the lahar flows and protect settlements. A combination of the three appears to be the best, but the most effective and least costly mix remains to be determined.     

灾害发生时影响居民心理承受能力的社会心理因素分析

目的：探讨影响个体面对自然灾害时心理承受能力的社会心理因素．方法，采用问卷调查的方式，运用因素分析法和相关分析法对1000余名居民进行测评．结果。①个体面对灾害时的心理承受能力的影响因素为。灾害意识、灾时行为、灾害认知、社会支持，②通过相关分析，灾时行为对心理承受能力的影响最大。     

新疆近3年大风灾害灾度分析与区划

新疆是我国大风灾害比较严重的地区之一.已往的大风灾害研究主要从自然学科角度进行较多,分析了大风致灾因子的主要来源、地理分布、强度、监测等,但缺乏从社会学科角度分析研究.本文以新疆2001～2003年发生的大风灾例为研究对象,以新疆15个地州市为研究单位,根据可操作性、可比性、可传递性原则选定的3种确定灾度指标的因子,采用综合评判的方法对各地州市大风灾害灾度进行计算和定量评价,并根据最大隶属原则把15个地州市分别划分为3个区域级重度风灾区、4个区域级一般度风灾区和8个区域级轻度风灾区.     

江西干旱灾害研究

在江西,干旱灾害是仅次于洪涝灾害的第二大农业灾害,本文对江西干旱灾害的面积,频率,分布,危害及其成因等作了较全面的调查和分析,在此基础上提出了减轻江西干旱灾害的若干建议,可供有关部门参考。     

新疆主要自然灾害及其减灾策略

新疆是一个自然灾害较多的地区,地震灾害、地质灾害、气象灾害、洪水灾害都比较频繁。本文在概述、分析上述灾害的基础上,提出了减轻自然灾害的策略。     

The global distribution of human population and recent volcanism

Abstract

This study quantifies the spatial relationship between the global distribution of human population and recent volcanism. Using recently compiled databases of population and Holocene volcanoes, we estimate that almost 9% (455 × 10⁶ people) of the world's 1990 population lived within 100km of an historically active volcano and 12% within 100km of a volcano believed to have been active during the last 10,000 years. The analysis also indicates that average population density generally decreases with distance from these volcanoes (within 200 km). In tropical areas, the elevation and fertile soils associated with volcanic regions can provide incentives for agrarian populations to settle close to potentially active volcanoes. In Southeast Asia and Central America higher population densities lie in closer proximity to volcanoes than in other volcanic regions. In Japan and Chile, population density tends to increase with distance from volcanoes. The current trends of rapid urbanization and sustained population growth in tropical developing countries, combined with agricultural intensification of fertile volcanic terrains could alter the relationship between humans and volcanoes so as to increase both local and global consequences of volcanic eruptions in the future.     

论城市灾害管理模型

城市是人类抗灾,防灾的重点,加强城市灾害防治是城市,乃至整个国家可持续发展的必要保证,城市灾害管理是减轻城市灾害的主要的主要措施之一,本文用管理学,控制论,决策论的思想建立了城市灾害管理的模型。     

基于灾害风险评估的山地城市固定避难场所布局优化研究——以东川区为例

研究以各区域灾害风险评估系数作为权重系数,对山地小城市各区域避难场所进行优化布局。首先,通过风险值=危险性*脆弱性/抗灾救灾能力机理表达式构建灾害风险评估指标体系,并以模糊综合评价法得出灾害风险评估数值,在此基础上通过多目标选址优化模型来构建山地城市避难场所的优化模型,其中灾害风险评估系数作为影响布局的权重因素纳入其中。最后,以东川区为研究对象,对其固定避难场所进行优化布局研究,结果表明:东川区城区固定避灾场所数量可在接近最优解的情况下达到效果最优。     

Volcanic disasters in Latin America and the 13th November 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano in Colombia

Volcanic eruptions in Latin America have claimed about 61,000 lives since 1600 A.D. and the region's volcanoes are responsible for about a quarter of the world's fatalities from this type of hazard. Nearly all loss of life from volcanism in Latin America is due to pyroclastic surges, pyroclastic flows and lahars or volcanic mudflows. Lahars generated during the 13th November, 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz in Colombia claimed 25,000 lives, underscoring the great hazard from lahars, which can be generated from the fifty-six, active, ice-capped Central and South American volcanoes during even very small eruptions. The probability of specific prediction of the timing of such events is currently low, whereas the probability of a general prediction of volcanic eruption is high, giving sufficient time to install telemetered lahar alarm systems, which could largely avoid the loss of life.     

五大连池老黑山火山的两次喷发活动

老黑山是五大连池火山群中最年轻的火山.通过对老黑山火山锥体结构及其形态分析指出,老黑山火山并非单锥,而是由先、后不同时期形成的两个锥体叠加组成的复合锥,表明它有两次喷发活动.通过对新发掘出的史料的分析,进一步指出,老黑山火山的第一次喷发时间为1720(不是1719年)-1721年,第二次可能为1776年.两次喷发活动的确认为研究老黑山火山喷发历史、喷发过程、喷发危险性评价和灾害预测等提供了新依据.     

General overview of the disaster management framework in Cameroon

Efficient and effective disaster management will prevent many hazardous events from becoming disasters. This paper constitutes the most comprehensive document on the natural disaster management framework of Cameroon. It reviews critically disaster management in Cameroon, examining the various legislative, institutional, and administrative frameworks that help to facilitate the process. Furthermore, it illuminates the vital role that disaster managers at the national, regional, and local level play to ease the process. Using empirical data, the study analyses the efficiency and effectiveness of the actions of disaster managers. Its findings reveal inadequate disaster management policies, poor coordination between disaster management institutions at the national level, the lack of trained disaster managers, a skewed disaster management system, and a top‐down hierarchical structure within Cameroon's disaster management framework. By scrutinising the disaster management framework of the country, policy recommendations based on the research findings are made on the institutional and administrative frameworks.     

关于雾灾几个相关问题的探讨

首先,基于灾害系统的理论,构建了雾灾灾害系统模式和灾害链模式,提出了以机场和高速公路为承灾体的雾灾灾害链.其次,构建了雾灾承灾体脆弱性评价体系和模型,并对中国雾灾脆弱性分省区进行了评价,结果表明雾灾脆弱性高值区是上海、北京、天津3市;次高值区是江苏、山东、海南、广东等省.最后,以2002年12月的一次大雾天气为例,运用灰色关联度方法,着重对机场客运的雾灾灾情进行了评估,以期为雾灾损失厘定和防灾减灾提供科学的依据.     

区域灾情评价模型

自然灾害发生的次数和灾害种类与灾情强度密切相关，因此有必要对灾情强度进行合理的评价。首先用灾次指数Di和灾种指数Di′来量化单灾种的多发性和多灾种的群发性，提出了计算Di和Di′的方法，然后在此基础上建立了量化灾情强度指数Q的模型，该模型适用于单区域和多区域中多种灾害发生的情况。对北京市怀柔、平谷和海淀3个区进行了模型的实例应用，考虑洪灾、冰雹灾和旱灾3种灾害情况，结果表明，怀柔区的灾情强度指数高于平谷和海淀区，3种灾种中冰雹灾的灾情强度指数高达42．76％。     

近40年中国地质灾害基本情况与主要特征

本文对中国8类25种地质灾害的时、空分布规律和发展趋势等进行了初步分析。认为:地质灾害呈现日趋严重化,且灾害以东南部区域最为严重。而且地质灾害形成与发展与人类活动密切相关。