The performance of the sydney flood warning system, august 1986

During August 1986 Sydney experienced its worst flooding for decades. Some 2,500 properties were flooded and transport was severely disrupted in much of the metropolitan area. The flood provided an opportunity to examine the operation of a warning system in a major Australian city. Pre-existing research into flood warnings was expanded to take advantage of the opportunity.
The warning system is examined in terms of: its impact on flood losses; consumer satisfaction; and inefficiences or breakdowns within the system. Much of the flooded area was not covered by a formal warning system. For the area that was covered, performance could be improved. Problems were experienced with the data collection and transmission network. Warning dissemination was inadequate, and the majority of those surveyed claimed that they did not receive warnings. The actions of householders reduced the flood damage substantially, but this does not appear to be the result of official warnings. Key recommendations concern improving the reliability of the flood detection network and information management.     

Post-Emergency Epidemiological Surveillance in Iraqi-Kurdish Refugee Camps in Iran

In 1991 a computerized, comprehensive epidemiological surveillance system was developed to monitor health trends in approximately 25,000 acutely displaced Kurds in Nowsood and Saryas refugee camps, Bakhtaran region, Northwestern Iran. In addition, community-based surveys offered information unobtainable from health facilities. Weekly population movements, attack rates, point-prevalence estimates, and case fatality ratios were calculated, and the data were analysed and compared. The overall crude mortality rate (CMR) in the camps under study was still 9 times higher than the reported CMR for Iraq. Health problems with very low rates (less than 1.0/ 1,000 population/week) included the triad of measles, meningitis and tetanus. However, morbidity for the most common conditions (acute respiratory infections, diarrhoea, skin infections, eye diseases and, finally, typhoid fever) was shown to increase at the end of the intervention, highlighting that the pressure of repatriation on refugees made them progressively worse. This article concludes that epidemiological surveillance systems should be implemented during mass-migrations in developing countries also in post-emergency settings. Furthermore, surveillance appears to be indispensable in order for the international agencies to keep abreast of events and to safeguard human rights when international attention subsides.     

The 1998 Flood in Bangladesh: Is Different Targeting Needed During Emergencies and Recovery to Tackle Malnutrition?

Bangladesh suffered the century's worst flood during July-October 1998 and appealed for assistance. To provide information for appropriate interventions to tackle nutritional problems, a rapid assessment survey was conducted to look at the nutritional situation, problems encountered by the community, their coping mechanisms and rehabilitation priorities in six rural areas. The survey was repeated after four months to measure the outcome of activities during the flood and the necessity for future assistance. There were 3,048 children measured in both surveys (1,597 and 1,451). The sample of most interest was a sub-group of 180 children present in two previous independent surveys. The analysis found that while moving from the crisis period to post-flood phase there was evidence of a 'crossover phenomenon' in the recovery pattern of nutritional status. Sixty-eight per cent of the children who were malnourished (WHZ < -2SD) during the crisis period (18 per cent) recovered enough to cross the cut-off point and became normal after four months. Another 8 per cent of children (9 per cent of all normal) who were normal during the crisis period, after four months had deteriorated to be malnourished. Thus, despite there being a shift in the overall distribution of nutritional status, there has been another shift that reduced the net effect. Subsequent episodes of diarrhoea, access to food and loan burden had also influenced the recovery pattern of the children's nutritional status as evident from the statistically significant associations. These findings raise questions about targeting acute malnutrition during emergencies, and using the same criteria during both the crisis and rehabilitation phases.     

The 2011 flood event in the Mekong Delta: preparedness,response, damage and recovery of private households and small businesses

Floods frequently cause substantial economic and human losses, particularly in developing countries. For the development of sound flood risk management schemes that reduce flood consequences, detailed insights into the different components of the flood risk management cycle, such as preparedness, response, flood impact analyses and recovery, are needed. However, such detailed insights are often lacking: commonly, only (aggregated) data on direct flood damage are available. Other damage categories such as losses owing to the disruption of production processes are usually not considered, resulting in incomplete risk assessments and possibly inappropriate recommendations for risk management. In this paper, data from 858 face‐to‐face interviews among flood‐prone households and small businesses in Can Tho city in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta are presented to gain better insights into the damage caused by the 2011 flood event and its management by households and businesses.     

Health response to a large and rapid influx of Albanian refugees in southern Italy, 1991

Over a two-day period in March 1991, more than 23,000 Albanian refugees arrived without warning in the southern Italian port of Brindisi. A simple surveillance system was established within days of their arrival to monitor health problems that were expected to have a high frequency, were of concern to the Italian health care system because of potential spread to the local population, and were susceptible to therapeutic or preventive measures. The most commonly encountered health problems were pediculosis and scabies. Despite poor sanitary conditions, only one outbreak of gastrointestinal disease was reported. Obstetric events were common, and many resulted in adverse outcomes. Hospitalization rates were high, although in the early weeks of the emergency, many were unwarranted. This experience demonstrates the value of a simple, rapid surveillance system in prioritizing health problems and preventing rumors. In future, greater emphasis should be placed on outpatient management of simple medical problems.     

Flooding: what is the impact on pregnancy and child health?

Floods are the most common type of natural disaster in both developed and developing countries and have led to extensive morbidity and mortality throughout the world. Worldwide, over the past 30 years, flooding has claimed the lives of more than 200,000 people and affected more than 2.8 billion others. The impact of flooding on health varies among populations and depends primarily on vulnerability and the kind of event experienced. It severely disrupts livelihoods and has a significant impact on the health of pregnant women and children. In addition, it may exacerbate a range of negative psychological and physiological child and reproductive health outcomes. Awareness‐raising, education, and the issuing of warnings appear to be key initiatives to mitigate or prevent flood morbidity and mortality, especially among people living in low‐ and middle‐income countries. Agencies responding to emergencies also need to be more cognisant of the dangers, specifically those engaged in healthcare, nutrition, and water safety programmes.     

华北雨季不同时段严重旱涝特征的诊断研究

利用华北平原地区的１３个站点，４５年（１９５１～１９９５）的降水资料，对夏季４个时段（６月、７月、８月、４～８月）进行了Ｚ指数计算，确定了干旱则主要发生在８月，并可明显看出由５０～６０年代的多水期向７０年代中期以后的少水期的转变，另外，乌拉尔山到巴尔喀什湖附近的低压槽加深和西北太平洋副热带高压的北抬，对华北地区雨季持续性暴雨的产生起着决定性的作用。严重洪涝年的夏季（６～８月），西北太平洋副热带高压     

Limitations of anthropometry during acute food shortages: high mortality can mask refugees' deteriorating nutritional status

Longitudinal comparison of anthropometric data from cross-sectional surveys is commonly used to assess nutritional status in relief operations. In a refugee camp in Sudan, assessment indicated a high level of childhood malnutrition, but nutritional status appeared relatively unchanged between cluster sample surveys in January (26.3% below 80% of median weight-for-height) and March 1985 (28.4% below 80% of median weight-for-height). However, in this interval, which was marked by irregular food supplies and relatively low energy (calorie) intake as well as by a high incidence of diarrhoeal disease and measles, nearly 13% of all children in the camp died. This deceptive appearance of stability in nutritional status in the face of high mortality may be explained by ongoing nutritional deterioration ("replacement malnutrition") among surviving children. These findings demonstrate that collection and analysis of mortality data are essential for the correct interpretation of anthropometric results during periods of uncertain food supply.     

1949～1998年中国大洪涝灾害若干特征分析

根据1949~1998年大洪涝灾害资料、运用一般统计方法和分形理论,分析了1949~1998年大洪涝灾害的若干特征,得出大洪涝灾害的发生频率在不断增加、受灾农田面积波动上升、空间上以长江和珠江流域为主、季节上集中在6~8月份等特征,并探讨了大洪涝灾害时间序列上的分形特征。     

Environmental Information Systems in Malaria Risk Mapping and Epidemic Forecasting

Every year between one and two million African children under five die of malaria. If one adds to this the contribution of malaria to all-cause infant mortality then clearly the burden of the disease is catastrophic — a disaster quietly happening each and every year. New tools are needed urgently to support those currently available for control of the disease. An effective vaccine remains elusive. This article outlines the potential contribution to malaria control services of satellite information, which is being used by resource managers in other sectors. In particular, it highlights the lessons which can be learned from early warning systems in other areas, especially those designed to respond to famine. An appendix provides a brief introduction to satellite data and their interpretation.     

宁波市水旱灾害及其规律的研究

水旱灾害是宁波市最为严重的自然灾害,特别是洪涝台灾害已成为该市自然灾害中经济损失增长最快的自然灾害。依据宁波市历史上水旱灾情资料,结合自然地理环境条件,分析研究宁波市水旱灾害基本特征,并揭示了水旱灾害发生的时间性和区域性规律。在此基础上还探讨了水旱灾害发生频率的演进趋势。     

Using design effects from previous cluster surveys to guide sample size calculation in emergency settings

A good estimate of the design effect is critical for calculating the most efficient sample size for cluster surveys. We reviewed the design effects for seven nutrition and health outcomes from nine population-based cluster surveys conducted in emergency settings. Most of the design effects for outcomes in children, and one-half of the design effects for crude mortality, were below two. A reassessment of mortality data from Kosovo and Badghis, Afghanistan revealed that, given the same number of clusters, changing sample size had a relatively small impact on the precision of the estimate of mortality. We concluded that, in most surveys, assuming a design effect of 1.5 for acute malnutrition in children and two or less for crude mortality would produce a more efficient sample size. In addition, enhancing the sample size in cluster surveys without increasing the number of clusters may not result in substantial improvements in precision.     

中国暴雨洪涝灾害的统计分析

根据近４０多年来的资料，对我国暴雨洪涝灾害进行了统计分析。分析表明，我国暴雨洪涝灾害面积大，且有随时间而增加的趋势；年均受涝面积最大的地区主要位于江淮流域；暴雨洪涝发生的基本规律，南方早，北方迟，６～８月为暴雨洪涝主要多发期。     

甘肃省暴雨洪水灾害分布特征研究

根据甘肃省各地1971～2000年气象整编资料及1981-2000年土壤湿度资料，计算分析了主讯期（6～8月）各地土壤水分容纳量，并对甘肃省大暴雨的时空分布、洪水灾害形成的地形、地质特征作了系统分析，依此对暴雨洪水地质灾害进行了区划，对其危害进行了评述.     

Surveillance of the Health and Nutritional Status of Rohingya Refugees in Bangladesh

Early in 1992, Bangladesh experienced an influx of Burmese refugees, reaching a total of 263,000 by May. As the health and nutritional status of the refugee population was reportedly poor, a need was felt to collect dependable data through epidemiological surveillance, on which interventions could be based. The nutritional and health status of children was dramatically poor in all camps surveyed and a deterioration was expected in the coming monsoon. Several problem areas could be identified. Based on these findings it was possible to undertake appropriate action and to avert threatening calamities. Epidemiological surveillance is an important monitoring tool to provide reliable data on the health and nutritional status of refugee populations and to help the organizations involved to prioritize and evaluate their actions.     

The 1934 floods in Tabriz, N. W. Iran

The disastrous floods of July 1934 in Tabriz are examined in the context of the history of floodinginthe city, which is crossed by a dry stream bed liable to sudden Inundation by mountain torrents from the southeast. Few details of past events have survived, suggesting that relatively little significance has been attached to them. Typically, flood dykes were inadequately maintained. This neglect, combined with a radical alteration in urban topography after 1925, when broad straight avenues were constructed through the old heart of the city, led to serious losses from flooding twice in 1929 and again in 1934. Enhanced perception of the flood risk finally found expression in the adoption of large scale engineering measures to mitigate future events, including strengthening protective dykes and widening the river channel through the city. These works have reduced vulnerability to flooding from river overflow. No long-term detrimental Impact of the 1934 flood has been observed. Some of the physical and social parameters that have influenced the vulnerability of Tabrizinthe past continue to be present both there and elsewhere in Iran, and they may be characteristic also of other regions with comparable natural environments or in a similar stage of socio-economic development.     

Health Assessment of the 1985 Flood Disaster in Puerto Rico

In Puerto Rico, during October 1985, tropical storm Isabel caused widespread flooding, landslides, and collapsing of bridges. A maximum of 180 persons died, including an estimated 127 at a landslide where the majority (78%) of deaths resulted from traumatic injury. Approximately 3,000 homes were damaged with 4,400 persons temporarily displaced into 44 shelters. A shelter surveillance system was established to monitor 19 acute and chronic conditions in 28 shelters during a 5-week period. Trend analysis trends of selected reportable communicable diseases in the general community revealed no changes attributable to the disaster in the 12 most severely affected municipalities. In these municipalities, the number of persons using the scheduled outpatient clinics after the disaster decreased significantly, but the mean daily number of emergency room visits did not show significant change. Analysis of surveillance data showed that no infectious disease outbreaks had occurred in the shelters. The post-impact health consequences resulting from this widespread flooding were minimal. Even so, disease surveillance remains essential for efficacious resource allocation and prevention strategies.     

Spatio-temporal dynamics of malaria expansion under climate change in semi-arid areas of Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

Malaria is a leading and severe disease in Ethiopia, particularly like the Tigray region. The main objectives of the study were to model the influence of climate change on malaria transmission in Tigray and identify environmental variables that contribute to malaria. Aiming these objectives, Kafta Humera, Raya Azebo and Laelay Adiabo districts were purposively selected based on their malaria prevalence. Two hundred and nine mosquito occurrence points were collected from the study area. Collected occurrence points, altitude and 19 bioclimatic variables were run in Maxent software. Malaria transmission was simulated for themiddle and end of the twenty-first century using two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios driving ensemble of three general circulation models. The results show that the area suitable for malaria transmission is simulated to increase by 93.8% (RCP4.5) and 113.9% (RCP8.5) by mid-century and by 161% (RCP4.5) and 149% (RCP8.5) by the end of the twenty-first century, when compared with the historical baseline. This indicates that the area suitable for malaria transmission is simulated to increase due to climate change over the region. Therefore, the study recommends well prevention and control of malaria to ensure the health of people.     

以公交车为平台的应急医疗救援车辆快速改装研究

针对社会公共突发事件造成的创伤特点，以现有灾害和恐怖活动快速医学救援为侧重点，提出临时快速改装以公交车辆为平台的系列现场伤员救治与抢运装备的设想，并详细分析了建立公交车机动医院的必要性和可行性。公交车机动医院的实施将对未来我国处理公共突发事件提供新的应对措施。     

Health Effects of the 1991 Bangladesh Cyclone: Report of a UNICEF Evaluation Team

To assess the impact on health of the cyclone and tidal wave that struck the southern coast of Bangladesh on the evening of 29 April 1991, a team of health professionals visited cyclone affected areas from 4–27 June, 1991. Team members met with health workers and officials of the Government of Bangladesh and with staff pom nongovernmental organizations, and conducted field surveys in two severely affected areas.
Mortality among the 135 households surveyed (pre-cyclone population 1,123) was 14 per cent. At highest risk of deaths were children of less than 10 years (26 per cent mortality) and women of more than 40 (31 per cent mortality). Almost all deaths occurred as a result of drowning from the tidal wave that accompanied the cyclone. Although 95 per cent of the population surveyed had received warning of the cyclone four or more hours before it struck, the 300 existing cyclone shelters had capacity for only 450,000 of the 5,000,000 people affected by the cyclone. Deaths following the cyclone were few. Diarrhea caused by Vibrio cholerae and Shigella dysenteria type 1, both of which are endemic in Bangladesh, occurred in the post-cyclone period. Reports by the national Diarrhea Surveillance System of large increases in diarrheal incidence following the cyclone were difficult to assess because of inconsistencies in pre-and post-cyclone reporting methods. No increase in other infectious diseases was identified.
Although water availability had been a major concern following the cyclone, the tubewell system was functioning well in the area that was surveyed. Distribution of relief assistance by the Government of Bangladesh and by non-governmental organizations was good, with 95 per cent of families surveyed receiving food aid within five days of the cyclone.
The major health effect of this cyclone was acute deaths due to drowning. Preventing deaths during future cyclones will require increasing accessible shelter.