Minimization of socioeconomic disruption for displaced populations following disasters

In the aftermath of catastrophic natural disasters such as hurricanes, tsunamis and earthquakes, emergency management agencies come under intense pressure to provide temporary housing to address the large‐scale displacement of the vulnerable population. Temporary housing is essential to enable displaced families to reestablish their normal daily activities until permanent housing solutions can be provided. Temporary housing decisions, however, have often been criticized for their failure to fulfil the socioeconomic needs of the displaced families within acceptable budgets. This paper presents the development of (1) socioeconomic disruption metrics that are capable of quantifying the socioeconomic impacts of temporary housing decisions on displaced populations; and (2) a robust multi‐objective optimization model for temporary housing that is capable of simultaneously minimizing socioeconomic disruptions and public expenditures in an effective and efficient manner. A large‐scale application example is optimized to illustrate the use of the model and demonstrate its capabilities ingenerating optimal plans for realistic temporary housing problems.     

Economic evaluation of measles catch-up and follow-up campaigns in Afghanistan in 2002 and 2003

This paper assesses the cost-effectiveness of, and the return on the investment in, the 2002 catch-up and the 2003 follow-up measles campaigns in Afghanistan from the perspective of the donor. The catch-up campaign targeted nearly 12 million children aged between six months and 12 years, while the follow-up campaign targeted over five million children aged between 9 and 59 months. Both campaigns successfully vaccinated approximately 96 per cent of the respective target populations, and are expected to avert an estimated 301,000 measles deaths over the next 10 years. The average cost per dose of measles vaccine delivered was USD 0.40. The cost per death prevented is USD 23.6, assuming a case fatality rate of 10 per cent and a discount rate of three per cent. With more than 42,000 measles deaths avoided for every one million US dollars spent, the campaigns are an excellent public health investment for precluding childhood mortality in a country affected by a complex emergency.     

Maximising the net social benefit of the construction of post‐disaster alternative housing projects

The widespread destruction that follows large‐scale natural disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina in August 2005, challenges the efficacy of traditional temporary housing methods in providing adequate solutions to housing needs. Recognising these housing challenges, the Congress of the United States allocated, in 2006, USD 400 million to the Department of Homeland Security to support Alternative Housing Pilot Programs, which are intended to explore the possibilities of providing permanent and affordable housing to displaced families instead of traditional temporary housing. This paper presents a new methodology and optimisation model to identify the optimal configurations of post‐shelter housing arrangements to maximise the overall net socioeconomic benefit. The model is capable of quantifying and optimising the impacts of substituting temporary housing with alternative housing on the social and economic welfare of displaced families as well as the required additional costs of doing so. An application example is presented to illustrate the use of the model and its capabilities.     

Cash transfers' effect on government support: the case of Fiji

While some scholars have found that government post-disaster assistance supports the incumbent, others have shown that incumbent effects among beneficiaries are imperceptible or negative. This article contributes to this debate by using a regression discontinuity design of households affected by Tropical Cyclone Winston in Fiji to show that the type of assistance provided is an important variable in understanding the effects of aid on perceptions of the government. Residents of Fiji who received a post-disaster cash transfer are up to 20 per cent more likely to be very satisfied with the government than are those who did not. The probability further increases if the cash transfer was provided along with in-kind benefits or vouchers, but it is not affected if beneficiaries were also encouraged to use their own pension savings. This paper provides evidence in favour of the ‘attentive citizen’ theory by demonstrating that beneficiaries actively appraise government responses; it also reveals possible effects of elite capture on the relationship between the government and beneficiaries.     

The effectiveness of forecast-based humanitarian assistance in anticipation of extreme winters: a case study of vulnerable herders in Mongolia

This paper presents evidence relating to a forecast-based cash and non-food item distribution among vulnerable herder households during the 2017–18 dzud (extreme winter) season in Mongolia, and analyses the results of a quasi-experimental study evaluating its impacts. An innovative approach in disaster risk reduction, forecast-based financing (FbF) can have short- and long-term benefits to vulnerable households but remains understudied. The paper contributes information on a multimodal FbF programme offering one-off cash grants and in-kind veterinary kits. The data found significant effects of reduced mortality and increased offspring survival in some types of livestock, and that the timing of FbF assistance is crucial, as reported early assistance correlated to positive outcomes in terms of reduced animal mortality. These findings can be used to design more effective FbF interventions, to understand better the appropriateness of FbF designs, and to use early warnings and early actions to help people prepare and withstand disasters such as dzuds.     

Does money work? Cash transfers to ex-combatants in disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration processes

This paper analyses the relevance and potential of cash transfers as part of the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) assistance packages provided to ex-combatants in transitions from war to peace. To this end, a theoretical framework is established that permits the identification of the advantages and disadvantages of using cash in DDR. Subsequently, an empirical analysis is carried out to compare selected theoretical assumptions on the use of cash with the reality of lessons learned from recent experience in Sierra Leone and other African countries. The study shows that some theoretical drawbacks commonly associated with the use of cash in DDR processes may indeed bear out in practice. At the same time, though, the paper argues that the utility of cash transfers in DDR is affected by a variety of factors that go far beyond the simple choice of employing cash, most notably decisions on payment location, eligibility criteria and targeting.     

Estimating the mitigation effect of Tokai earthquake measures on housing damage: a counterfactual approach

This paper evaluates the mitigation effect of Tokai earthquake measures on housing damage using a counterfactual approach. It focuses on those measures that stimulate ex‐ante investment in disaster prevention in the supposedly affected area, including earthquake‐proof retrofitting and improved housing construction; the effect of the measures on housing losses is estimated monetarily. The study compares factual disaster damage computed using a real distribution of houses with counterfactual damage to a hypothetical housing distribution that would occur if the measures were not implemented. The key findings are: (i) the disaster mitigation effects of Tokai earthquake measures on housing amount to approximately JPY 18 billion (USD 0.18 billion) for Yamanashi Prefecture and JPY 0.26 trillion (USD 2.6 billion) for Shizuoka Prefecture, which would be at the centre of the event; (ii) a before–after comparison biases estimates of the mitigation effect; and (iii) statistically, the measures do not mitigate the housing damage predicted for an earthquake in Tokai.     

Measuring disaster recovery: bouncing back or reaching the counterfactual state?

How should one measure the recovery of a locale from a disaster? The measurement is crucial from a public policy and administration standpoint to determine which places should receive disaster assistance, and it affects the performance evaluation of disaster recovery programmes. This paper compares two approaches to measuring recovery: (i) bouncing back to pre‐disaster conditions; and (ii) attaining the counterfactual state. The former centres on returning to normalcy following disaster‐induced losses, whereas the latter focuses on attaining the state, using quasi‐experimental design, which would have existed if the disaster had not occurred. Both are employed here to assess two housing recovery indicators (total new units and their valuations) in Hurricane Katrina‐affected counties (rural and urban). The examination reveals significantly different outcomes for the two approaches: counties have not returned to their pre‐disaster housing conditions, but they do exhibit counterfactual recovery. Moreover, rural counties may not be as vulnerable as assumed in the disaster recovery literature.     

Flood risk and inequalities between ethnic groups in the floodplains of England and Wales

Previous research has shown that many vulnerable communities experience disproportional exposure to flood risk. This paper, though, is the first to look at broad ethnic/racial group differences in the United Kingdom. It contends that differences in culture and language, especially those of new immigrants, bestow vulnerabilities on such communities, resulting in a lack of knowledge that enables people to be aware, to be prepared, or to recover expediently after a flood emergency. Using UK 2011 Census data and Environment Agency flood maps, the paper demonstrates that it is the non‐white communities in Wales that confront the most disproportionate level of flood risk: 23 per cent as compared to 11.4 per cent of their white neighbours. In contrast, the difference in flood risk between white and non‐white ethnic/racial groups in regions of England is within a range of plus or minus two per cent, except for in Yorkshire and The Humber where white populations face a much greater risk of flooding.     

Cyclone shelters and their locational suitability: an empirical analysis from coastal Bangladesh

Bangladesh is one of the poorest and the most disaster‐prone countries in Asia; it is important, therefore, to know how its disaster reduction strategies are organised and planned. Cyclone shelters comprise a widely acceptable form of infrastructural support for disaster management in Bangladesh. This paper attempts to analyse empirically their use during cyclones in a sample study area along the southwest coastal belt of the country. It shows how the location of a cyclone shelter can determine the social power structure in coastal Bangladesh. The results reveal that the establishment of cyclone shelters in the studied communities is determined by neither a right‐based nor a demand‐based planning approach; rather, their creation is dependent on the socio‐political affluence of local‐level decision‐makers. The paper goes on to demonstrate that socially vulnerable households (defined, for example, by income or housing conditions) are afforded disproportionately less access to cyclone shelters as compared to less socially vulnerable households.     

Displacement as a predictor of functional impairment in tsunami‐exposed children

Thirty months after the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, thousands of families in Aceh Province, Indonesia, remained in temporary barracks while sanitation conditions and non‐governmental organisation support deteriorated. This study sought to determine the factors associated with functional impairment in a sample of 138 displaced and non‐displaced Acehnese children. Using multivariate linear regression models, it was found that displacement distance was a consistent predictor of impairment using the Brief Impairment Scale. Exposure to tsunami‐related trauma markers was not significantly linked with impairment in the model. Paternal employment was a consistent protective factor for child functioning. These findings suggest that post‐disaster displacement and the subsequent familial economic disruption are significant predictors of impaired functioning in children's daily activities. Post‐disaster interventions should consider the disruption of familiar environments for families and children when relocating vulnerable populations to avoid deleterious impacts on children's functioning.     

The 2004 tsunami and mental health in Thailand: a longitudinal analysis of one‐and two‐year post‐disaster data

Some 280,000 people died in the Indian Ocean tsunami on 26 December 2004. This cohort study examined its impact on mental health one and two years later. It did so by investigating the association between six consequent variables (personal injury, loss of home, loss of business, death of a family member, injury to a family member, or loss of a family member's business) and mental health, as measured by the 36‐item Short Form Health Survey (SF‐36), among residents in four provinces of Thailand. One year later, participants who suffered a personal injury, the loss of a business, or the loss of a family member reported poorer mental health than those who were unaffected. Two years later, participants who experienced the loss of a family member reported poorer mental health than those who were unaffected. This research shows that such a disaster may have long‐lasting ramifications for mental health, and that diverse losses may influence mental health differently.     

Needs assessment of the displaced population following the August 1999 earthquake in Turkey

In August 1999 a major earthquake struck north-western Turkey. An assessment followed to identify the immediate needs of the displaced population. A random cluster sample of displaced families living in temporary shelter outside of organised relief camps was designed. Representatives of 230 households from the four communities worse affected by the earthquake were interviewed. Most families lived in makeshift shelters (84 per cent), used bottled water (91 per cent), obtained food from relief organisations (61 per cent), had access to latrines (90 per cent), had a member on routine medication (53 per cent) and obtained information by word of mouth (81 per cent). Many respondents reported having family members who were over the age of 65 (32 per cent) or under age three (20 per cent), who were pregnant (6 per cent), or who had been ill since the earthquake (64 per cent). The greatest immediate need reported by most families was shelter requirements (37 per cent), followed by food (23 per cent) and hygiene requirements (19 per cent). Ten days after the earthquake, basic environmental health needs of food, shelter and hygiene still predominated in this displaced population. Significant portions may have special needs due to age or illness.     

Formal and informal material aid following the 2010 Haiti earthquake as reported by camp dwellers

Following the 2010 Haiti earthquake, more than two million people moved to temporary camps, most of which arose spontaneously in the days after the earthquake. This study focuses on the material assistance people in five Port‐au‐Prince camps reported receiving, noting the differences between assistance from formal aid agencies and from ‘informal’ sources such as family. Seven weeks after the earthquake, 32% of camp dwellers reported receiving no assistance whatsoever; 55% had received formal aid, typically a tent or tarpaulins; and 40% had received informal aid, usually in the form of cash transfers from family living abroad. While people were grateful for any material aid, cash was more frequently considered timely and more effective than aid‐in‐kind. Should this study be indicative of the greater displaced population, aid agencies should consider how they might make better use of cash transfers as an aid modality.     

Humanitarian aid and local power structures: lessons from Haiti's ‘shadow disaster’

This paper investigates the confluence of humanitarian aid, centralisation, and politics. The 7.0 magnitude earthquake in Haiti on 12 January 2010 led to more than USD 16 billion in pledges. By contrast, Hurricane Matthew, which made landfall in Haiti on 4 October 2016, stayed in the shadows, attracting about one per cent of the amount. While the earthquake exhibited one face of centralisation, the Category 4 storm laid bare rural vulnerabilities shaped by postcolonial state neglect, and reinforced by the influx of non-governmental organisations in the ‘Republic of Port-au-Prince’. The study draws on data from four case studies in two departments to illuminate the legacies of hyper-centralisation in Haiti. Compounding matters, Matthew struck in the middle of an extended election that the international community attempted to control again. The paper argues that disaster assistance and politics are uncomfortably close, while reflecting on the momentary decentralisation of aid after the hurricane and its effectiveness.     

Comparing earthquake insurance programmes: how would Japan and California have fared after the 2010–11 earthquakes in New Zealand?

Earthquakes are insured in high-risk high-income countries only if the public sector is involved. Prototypical examples are the insurance schemes in California (United States), Japan, and New Zealand, but each is structured differently. This paper examines these variations using a concrete case study: the sequence of earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, in 2010–11—the most heavily insured seismic event in history. It assesses what would have been the outcome had the Christchurch insurance system been different, focusing on the California Earthquake Authority (CEA) programme and Japan Earthquake Reinsurance (JER). Overall, the aggregate cost of the earthquake to the New Zealand public insurer (Earthquake Commission) was USD 6.2 billion. If a similar-sized disaster had occurred in Japan and California, homeowners would have received around USD 1.6 billion and USD 0.7 billion, respectively. This paper describes the distributive and spatial patterns of these scenarios and discusses some key policy questions that emerge from this comparison.     

Rethinking access: how humanitarian technology governance blurs control and care

Surprisingly little attention is paid to the role of digital technology and related forms of data production, storage, processing, and sharing in humanitarian governance. This paper uses Michael Barnett's ( 2013 ) conceptualisation of humanitarian governance when arguing for a better accounting of technology in literature on humanitarian governance. Specifically, it proposes a two‐fold alertness to governance of (a) the uses of new technology and (b) that which is produced by digital technologies. This elucidates important issues, including that of access to digitalised data collected from humanitarian subjects, with implications for their (in)security. The paper concludes by suggesting that access is no longer ‘only’ about challenges of gaining access to vulnerable populations, but also about challenges of preventing access to vulnerable digital bodies and their use for aggressive purposes. In short, access and protection acquire a new dimension and analyses of humanitarian governance must be more attentive to the role of digital technology.     

Need for adaptation: transformation of temporary houses

Building permanent accommodation after a disaster takes time for reasons including the removal of debris, the lack of available land, and the procurement of resources. In the period in‐between, affected communities find shelter in different ways. Temporary houses or transitional shelters are used when families cannot return to their pre‐disaster homes and no other alternative can be provided. In practice, families stay in a standard interim solution for months or even years while trying to return to their routines. Consequently, they adapt their houses to meet their midterm needs. This study analysed temporary houses in Chile and Peru to illustrate how families modify them with or without external support. The paper underlines that guidance must be given on how to alter them safely and on how to incorporate the temporary solution into the permanent structure, because families adapt their houses whether or not they are so designed.     

The Northridge Earthquake: Community-based Approaches to Unmet Recovery Needs

The 1994 Northridge, California earthquake has proven to be one of the most costly disasters in United States history. Federal and state assistance programmes received some 681,000 applications from victims for various forms of relief. In spite of the flow of US$11 billion in federal assistance into Los Angeles and Ventura counties, many victims have failed to obtain adequate relief. These unmet needs relate to the vulnerability of particular class and ethnic groups. In response to unmet needs, a number of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have become involved in the recovery process. This paper, based on evidence collected from hundreds of in-depth interviews with the people involved, examines the activities of several community-based organisations (CBOs) and other NGOs as they have attempted to assist vulnerable people with unmet post-disaster needs. We discuss two small ethnically diverse communities in Ventura County, on the periphery of the Los Angeles metropolitan region. The earthquake and resultant disaster declaration provided an opportunity for local government and NGOs to acquire federal resources not normally available for economic development. At the same time the earthquake created political openings in which longer-term issues of community development could be addressed by various local stakeholders. A key issue in recovery has been the availability of affordable housing for those on low incomes, particularly Latinos, the elderly and farm workers. We discuss the successes and limitations of CBOs and NGOs as mechanisms for dealing with vulnerable populations, unmet needs and recovery issues in the two communities.