韧性理论视角下贫困村灾后恢复重建与灾害风险管理刍议

韧性理论引入灾害风险管理领域,为世界防灾减灾实践提供了新理念,并在国内外韧性城市社区建设中得到广泛应用,但针对乡村地区,尤其是高脆弱性的贫困村韧性社区建设的研究还较为鲜见。该文以韧性理论为基础,结合乡村振兴战略规划,通过对贫困村社会生态系统特征的分析,探讨了新时期我国贫困村灾后恢复重建与灾害风险管理发展方向及特点。研究发现:贫困村不仅产业经济落后,而且还具有自然环境复杂、基础设建设滞后、社会公益设施匮乏、教育水平较低、自然灾害频发等特点。这类灾害多发区与贫困人口聚集区在空间上的叠加,成为我国社会生态系统高脆弱性地区,面临着严峻的防灾减灾与扶贫开发的双重挑战;基于韧性理论视角,通过构建贫困村适灾韧性系统,开展贫困村社区韧性综合评价,调整贫困村灾后恢复重建规划编制理念等,以推动贫困村灾后恢复重建的转型;在此基础上,结合贫困村社会生态系统特点,以建立健全贫困村灾害风险管理机制、探究提升贫困村适灾韧性社区建设的新途径、协同灾害管理与乡村振兴发展目标、开展灾区恢复重建动态监测与后效评价等政策举措为抓手,深化贫困村灾害风险管理实践,提升贫困地区可持续发展能力。     

中国水灾社会脆弱性评估方法的改进与应用--以长沙地区为例

中国是洪水灾害发生频繁的国家之一,研究水灾脆弱性对中国的灾害风险管理有重要的意义.但是,合理评估脆弱性尤其是社会脆弱性却面临着极大的挑战.论文对评估社会脆弱性指数的研究现状进行了分析,指出了传统评估方法存在的问题,并尝试改进Hoovering评估模式.选择湘江流域的长沙地区为研究区,应用改进模型对研究区进行了社会脆弱性指数的评估.结果表明,长沙地区社会脆弱性从1980年至2000年基本处于下降趋势,但是在2002年和2003年增长迅速.2003年,长沙5区4县中社会脆弱性指数最大的是开福区,其次是长沙县,而宁乡县的社会脆弱性指数最低.     

社区灾害风险管理现状与展望

加强社区灾害风险管理是当前国际减灾的主要趋势之一。经验表明,社区灾害风险管理是治理和减少风险并确保可持续发展的有效手段。在分析国内外社区灾害风险管理成效基础上,指出我国社区灾害风险管理还存在总体发展不平衡、社会化参与程度不高、综合减灾协调机制不完善、防灾规划和应急预案针对性不强、防灾减灾宣传教育力度和减灾资源整合力度不够等问题。在全球化背景下,与日俱增的各种灾害风险对社区减灾提出了更高的要求,建议从以下几方面加强我国社区灾害管理工作:促进社区灾害管理立法,建立社会参与的长效激励机制,健全参与式社区减灾机制,加强社区防灾减灾综合能力建设,加强灾害资源化利用,并注重多方共同参与的社区灾害风险管理模式的研究。     

综合自然灾害风险管理--全面整合的模式与中国的战略选择

综合自然灾害风险管理是目前国际上防灾减灾和灾害管理较先进的措施和模式，是针对各种自然灾害的全灾害的管理，是贯穿于灾害管理全过程，集中于灾害风险和承灾体脆弱性分析并强调多层面、多元化和多学科参与合作的全面整合的灾害管理模式。介绍了综合自然灾害风险管理的必要性、概念和本质，探讨了综合自然灾害管理的基本理论、对策及其实施过程和实施战略，在此基础上提出了对我国实施综合自然灾害风险管理的建议，为强化和推动我国综合自然灾害风险管理提供参考。     

中国城市综合灾害风险管理现状与对策

世界性城市灾害的加剧已成为城市化进程中的一大障碍，它也是城市化过程的产物。如何协调城市化过程与城市综合灾害风险管理，已成为当今世界、特别是像中国这样的发展中国家可持续发展的一大难题。在综述了中国城市灾害及其风险管理现状的基础上，通过对其薄弱环节的综合分析，依据作者提出的综合灾害风险管理模式，就中国城市综合灾害风险管理对策提出了3条政策建议：即完善城市灾害风险管理的信息保障机制，特别是灾害预警体系、信息共享体系和信息公开机制；加强城市综合减灾能力的建设，特别是明确城市建设中减灾工程与非工程设施投入的固定比例，完善减灾教育宣传体系和综合灾害应急响应的科技平台体系；建立城市综合灾害风险管理范式，特别是高度重视城市规划中综合减灾规划的改进和完善，加快拓展城市企业灾害保险与再保险和发展适应城市灾害风险的“安全社区”范式。     

区域承灾体脆弱性指标体系与精细量化模型研究

灾害损失的严重程度由致灾环境的危险性、承灾体的脆弱性,以及区域的应急能力决定的。承灾体脆弱性研究对灾害风险管理、区域防灾减灾、减灾投资,以及灾害保险等有着重要的意义。建立了针对自然灾害的区域承灾体脆弱性评估指标体系;在此基础上,引入精细化土地类型,基于GIS对承灾体脆弱性做了基于精细网格的量化模型研究;并以浙江德清县自然灾害区划为例进行了试验。     

洪水风险管理研究进展与中国洪水风险管理模式初步探讨

在对国内外洪水风险管理研究领域的主要文献进行综述的基础上,针对中国目前防洪减灾的具体情况,提出了分别从家户与企业、保险公司、政府与社会三个不同层面和利益主体加强洪水管理的思路,并进一步探讨了适合中国国情的洪水风险管理模式。     

中国水灾风险综合管理--平衡大都市区水灾致灾强度与脆弱性

中国大都市区主要分布在大江大河的中下游地区,由于区域土地利用格局的巨大变化,特别是较多的水域和湿地因城市化而被占据,因此,一方面大都市区面临严重的洪水危险,另一方面为了使大都市区尽可能减轻洪水灾害,而加强了防洪能力的建设.然而,近50年的减灾实践证明,洪水灾害却在波动中趋于上升,即大都市区对洪水的脆弱性在增大.在对中国大都市区洪水灾害的区域分析基础上,以广东省为例,构造了综合水灾致灾因子和承灾体为一体的风险评估模型体系,以此提出了平衡大都市区水灾致灾强度与脆弱性的基本土地利用模式,和"政府-企业(社区)-保险公司"相结合的企业风险管理模式.     

空间局域性灾害下网络系统的空间脆弱性研究

在简单分析了传统脆弱性研究存在的问题后,提出了一个全新的针对网络系统的空间脆弱性理论模型。该模型是在传统脆弱性曲线方法的基础上,考虑了灾害位置,灾害覆盖面积,灾害全局性影响(包括灾害的直接和间接影响)以及系统结点对灾害的设防水平等4个因素,并提出了两个空间脆弱性指数(SVI),分别为绝对空间脆弱性指数(ASVI)和相对空间脆弱性指数(RSVI),以期尽可能真实地反映网络系统在面临空间局域性灾害时的脆弱性水平。空间脆弱性理论模型重点关注空间局域性灾害对网络系统造成的全局性影响。之后,以中国民用航空网络系统为例进行了案例研究,验证了该模型的有效性和合理性。结果表明,所有的仿真结果均符合人们对中国民用航空系统的认知常识,从而验证了空间脆弱性理论模型的合理性。     

1990年以来中国海洋灾害系统风险特征分析及其综合风险管理

长期以来,海洋灾害一直是困扰着海域及海岸带社会经济发展的一大障碍.中国是深受海洋灾害影响的国家之一.为此,从灾害系统论的角度,分析了1990年以来中国海洋灾害系统的风险特征.研究表明,中国在过去的15年中,工程性防灾减灾措施已经使海洋灾害灾情得到了一定的控制,但由于中国海域海事活动不断增多、海岸带经济密度快速提高,大大增加了海域及海岸带承灾体对海洋灾害风险的暴露,又由于海岸带及近海海域污染加重,海洋生物灾害发生的可能性增大,使中国海域面临的灾害风险趋于上升.此外,还讨论了中国海洋灾害综合风险管理的体系,提出从海洋灾害系统角度,加强海洋灾害综合风险管理能力的建设,以促进海洋及海岸带地区由政府、企业、社区共同组成的综合减灾范式的建立.     

基于GIS的南通市自然灾害风险区划

本文从自然致灾因子危险性和承灾体易损性2个方面选取评价指标,在南通市基础图件的基础上,通过GIS软件分析分别得到南通市自然致灾因子危险性分区图和社会经济易损性分区图.两图叠加后,生成南通市自然灾害风险区划基本单元,采用自下而上的定量区划方法,合并得到自然灾害风险区划图,最后分别论述了每个风险区的自然灾害和社会经济的特征.通过对风险区划指标和区域划分的探讨,以期为南通市防灾减灾工作提供科学依据.     

Capital assets framework for analysing household vulnerability during disaster

This paper examines the vulnerability of households to disasters, using an asset vulnerability framework to represent livelihoods. Such frameworks are widely employed to analyse household poverty and focus on living conditions and well-being rather than money-metric measures of consumption and income. The conceptualisation of household vulnerability is a challenge in current studies on coping with disasters. The paper considers whether a capital assets framework is useful in identifying and assessing household vulnerability in the context of the Wenchuan earthquake in China in 2008. The framework has five categories of assets (financial, human, natural, physical, and social capital) and attempts to measure the resilience and vulnerability of households. When applied to a major disaster, asset-based methods face the problem of heterogeneity of the population, such as with regard to livelihood type or residence. Moreover, the effect of external interventions, such as the provision of relief assistance, must be taken into account.     

Risk and vulnerability indicators at different scales: Applicability,usefulness and policy implications

This paper outlines selected approaches to measuring risk and vulnerability to hazards of natural origin using indicators and indices. It discusses their applicability, usefulness and policy implications. Indicators and indices have been developed on different scales and for different purposes. The paper will briefly introduce three global approaches to disaster-risk identification and will juxtapose them with one local approach in order to examine the differences concerning the functions and the purpose of the assessment as well as their impact for policy development. In contrast to an earlier comparative analysis of the three global disaster-risk indicator programmes by Mark Pelling in 2004, which focused primarily on the methodologies used, this paper places more emphasis on aspects of applicability and policy implications and outlines challenges and limitations of the different approaches. Since the assessment and mapping of human vulnerability is less developed than hazard assessment work [Pelling M., 2004. Visions of Risk: A Review of International Indicators of Disaster Risk and its Management. UNDP—Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BRCP), Geneva], this paper focuses in greater depth on how the approaches capture vulnerability. Conclusions will be formulated on how to further enhance vulnerability identification, particularly at the sub-national level.     

Risk and vulnerability indicators at different scales:: Applicability, usefulness and policy implications

This paper outlines selected approaches to measuring risk and vulnerability to hazards of natural origin using indicators and indices. It discusses their applicability, usefulness and policy implications. Indicators and indices have been developed on different scales and for different purposes. The paper will briefly introduce three global approaches to disaster-risk identification and will juxtapose them with one local approach in order to examine the differences concerning the functions and the purpose of the assessment as well as their impact for policy development. In contrast to an earlier comparative analysis of the three global disaster-risk indicator programmes by Mark Pelling in 2004, which focused primarily on the methodologies used, this paper places more emphasis on aspects of applicability and policy implications and outlines challenges and limitations of the different approaches. Since the assessment and mapping of human vulnerability is less developed than hazard assessment work [Pelling M., 2004. Visions of Risk: A Review of International Indicators of Disaster Risk and its Management. UNDP—Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BRCP), Geneva], this paper focuses in greater depth on how the approaches capture vulnerability. Conclusions will be formulated on how to further enhance vulnerability identification, particularly at the sub-national level.     

城市地裂缝风险评价方法研究

随着人们应对灾害从过去的“被动救灾”走向现在的“主动预防”,风险管理成为防灾减灾领域一个热门话题。从危险性评价、易损性评价以及防灾减灾能力评价三个方面阐述了城市地裂缝风险评价内容,提出了城市地裂缝风险评价流程,探讨了城市地裂缝可接受风险水平。在机理分析的基础上给出了城市地裂缝危险性评价指标体系,根据城市用地类型开展易损性评价具有很好的可操作性。首次提出了城市地裂缝防灾减灾能力评价方法。     

Pinning down social vulnerability in Sindh Province,Pakistan: from narratives to numbers,and back again

This paper reflects critically on the results of a vulnerability assessment process at the household and community scale using a quantitative vulnerabilities and capacities index. It validates a methodology for a social vulnerability assessment at the local scale in 62 villages across four agro‐ecological/livelihood zones in Sindh Province, Pakistan. The study finds that the move from vulnerability narratives to numbers improves the comparability and communicational strength of the concept. The depth and nuance of vulnerability, however, can be realised only by a return to narrative. Caution is needed, therefore: the index can be used in conjunction with qualitative assessments, but not instead of them. More substantively, the results show that vulnerability is more a function of historico‐political economic factors and cultural ethos than any biophysical changes wrought by climate. The emerging gendered vulnerability picture revealed extremes of poverty and a lack of capacity to cope with contemporary environmental and social stresses.     

城市暴雨灾害的影响程度及对策研究——以长沙市为例

通过对近年暴雨资料、城市建成区平均高程数据和城市排水管网资料的考察,以及对城市暴雨灾害危险性、脆弱性、暴露性的分析,制定了适用于长沙市的暴雨灾害风险评估方法。利用该方法对长沙市现有建成区798个地块的暴雨灾害风险进行了评估,将其分为高风险区、中风险区、低风险区3个类别。在此基础上,总结了长沙市暴雨灾害风险区的分布规律,并提出了一系列对策措施,包括更新城市排水管网、建设地下集水库、建立雨水自排系统和建设紧急排涝系统等。     

A multi-scale coastal vulnerability index: A tool for coastal managers?

Coastal hazard management involves the assessment of vulnerability in natural and human environments. Indices incorporating a diversity of indicators have therefore been used extensively to provide spatial analyses of the degree of vulnerability. Such indices are typically applied at global and national scales, and they involve varying degrees of simplification and aggregation of information. The degree of simplification that is desirable depends on the management scale, and higher resolution is required at the local compared to the global scale. To investigate the implications of spatial scale in depicting coastal hazard risk, coastal vulnerability indices were developed at national (Northern Ireland), local authority and site levels. Variables were separated into three sub-indices: a coastal characteristics sub-index concerned with the resilience and susceptibility of the coast to erosion, a coastal forcing sub-index to characterize the forcing variables contributing to wave-induced erosion and a socio-economic sub-index to assess the infrastructure potentially at risk. The three sub-indices were merged to calculate the overall index, which is portrayed in the form of colour-coded vulnerability maps. While a common tripartite index could be employed at national, regional and local scales, the nature of the data used to quantify many of the variables varies according to the scale of management. Some important local variations in vulnerability are masked by simplifications at the national scale. For some variables more detailed information is available as the spatial resolution of the study increases, while others become obsolete as data are of insufficient resolution to differentiate real variability at more detailed scales. The results highlight the importance of spatial scale in developing indices of vulnerability: while a common index architecture can be applied, the selection of variables must take account of the scale at which the hazard is to be assessed. It is likely that limits on index development will also be imposed by data availability at various scales.     

北京山区泥石流灾害保险的风险评判方法研究

泥石流是北京山区主要的自然灾害,在1989-1999年期间,泥石流灾害造成的经济损失高达3.09亿元.对泥石流灾害保险风险的评判是首先按北京山区各区县的泥石流危险度分区划分风险区,然后对各风险区进行灾害危险性和灾害易损性评判.在危险性评判中,按各风险区的泥石流危险度等级赋予危险度评判指标值.在易损性评判中,选择国内生产总值、固定资产、人口密度和人口自然增长率等4个因素作为评判指标,并分为两个层次进行评判.第一层次是经济易损性与社会易损性评判,第二层次是泥石流灾害易损性评判.最后用泥石流灾害保险风险分析数学模型,计算出各风险区的泥石流灾害保险风险度,并由此绘制了北京山区泥石流灾害保险风险区划图.