ENSO and Disaster: Droughts, Floods and El Niño/Southern Oscillation Warm Events

The connection between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and precipitation and temperature variability worldwide is increasingly well understood. ENSO has been linked to droughts and flooding in some regions. This paper uses the disaster history database of the U.S. Agency for International Development's Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance to examine the link between ENSO events and droughts or floods of sufficient magnitude to trigger international disasters. Worldwide, disasters triggered by droughts are twice as frequent during year two of ENSO warm events than during other years. No such relationship is apparent in the case of flood disasters. Drought disasters occur during year two of ENSO warm events significantly more frequently than in other years in Southern Africa and Southeast Asia. No regional pattern emerges from a comparable analysis of flood disasters. Those places likely to be affected by ENSO-triggered droughts can take proactive measures to mitigate the impacts.     

The humanitarian response costs of climate change

This research attempts to improve understanding of how climate change may affect international humanitarian spending, using existing international databases that track disaster occurrence and humanitarian costs. A range of potential impact scenarios is developed employing four distinct methodological approaches. The findings indicate that climate change will have a significant impact on humanitarian costs and the increase could range from a 32 per cent increase (taking into account only changes in frequency of disasters) to upwards of a 1,600 per cent increase when other criteria, such as intensity, are also taken into account. The paper further highlights that extreme weather events do not occur in isolation and the increasing interconnectedness of world economic and political systems has made disasters more complex and destructive. It makes a number of recommendations, including the need for more rigorous and systematic collection of disaster-related data and more constructive interaction between the humanitarian and climate change communities on future research, planning and action.     

近60年登陆和影响福建福鼎地区台风的统计分析

1948-2007年的60年间,福建福鼎地区登陆台风次数为16次,平均每10年2.7次;登陆台风主要来自菲律宾以东的西北太平洋海面,路径主要为西北移。60年间登陆和影响福鼎地区的台风平均每年3个,而有影响效应的台风的发生次数年际变化较大,近年来呈略微上升的趋势。台风的月际分布主要集中于7-9月,群发性强;月际频率呈现出为8月份为中心的正态分布。     

A determination of the prevalence of gender-based violence among conflict-affected populations in East Timor

The Reproductive Health Response in Conflict (RHRC) Consortium designed a standardised questionnaire to measure gender-based violence (GBV) prevalence in conflict-affected settings. A preliminary field test was undertaken July-August 2002 in one urban and one rural district in East Timor to assess the prevalence of GBV among women 18-49 years of age during and after conflict. The field test used a cross-sectional survey design with a two-stage random selection process. During the year preceding East Timor's 1999 crisis, 23.8 per cent of respondents reported physical assault by an intimate partner; this rate was not significantly different in the year preceding the survey (24.8 per cent). Assault by perpetrators outside the family declined significantly from 24.2 per cent during the crisis to 5.8 per cent post-crisis for physical assault (p<.001) and 22.7 per cent during the crisis to 9.7 per cent post-crisis for sexual assault (p=0.046). The field test stimulated and informed additional research in East Timor, and the complementary findings of these research initiatives continue to be used to develop local policies and programming to prevent and address GBV.     

云娜台风灾害特点与浙江省台风灾害初步研究

从云娜台风造成的灾害入手，系统地分析了浙江台风灾害发生的基本特点和规律，主要结论为台风灾害主要表现为罕见的强降水、创纪录的风力、部分地区的洪涝和多发的次生灾害。影响浙江的台风（或热带低压）的时间在5—11月，主要在7—9月，其影响可分为直接影响和间接影响两类。直接影响主要表现为台风暴雨引起洪涝灾害、地质灾害，强风造成房屋倒塌，有时遇到“三碰头”导致严重风暴潮灾害；间接影响主要是在浙江地区产生强降水，进而引发洪涝灾害，诱发地质灾害，沿海地区常会因为东风波或东风系统中的云团“登陆”而产生强降水，并引发洪涝和地质灾害。     

Deaths in natural hazards in the solomon islands

Archival and library search techniques have been used to establish extensive databases on deaths and damage resulting from natural hazards in the Solomon Islands. Although the records of fatalities are certainly incomplete, volcanic eruptions, tropical cyclones, landslides, tsunami and earthquakes appear to have been the most important. Only 22 per cent of the recorded deaths have resulted from meteorological hazards but a single event could change this proportion significantly. Five events in the fatality database account for 88 per cent of the recorded deaths. Future death tolls are also likely to be dominated by a small number of events. While the expected number of deaths in a given period is dependent upon the length of record considered, it is clear that a disaster which kills one hundred or more people in the Solomons can be expected more frequently than once in a hundred years.     

黑道凶日研究

本文提出的优势期和优势值是灾害年内出现机会最多的日期和强度，其中优势期就是黑道凶日。统计表明，黑道凶日位于节气日和节气之间的黄金分割日及其附近，在时空分布上具有许多特点。     

Psychological consequences among adults following the 1999 earthquake in Athens, Greece

One year after the 7 September 1999 earthquake in Athens, Greece, we investigated the psychological consequences among 305 individuals (71 per cent female) residing in the settlements of Ano Liosia Municipality. Adaptability was difficult (63 per cent) due to limited space (50 per cent). Insecurity feelings were predictive of difficult adaptability (chi2= 29.8, p<0.0001) and were common (63 per cent) among married subjects, independent of age (chi2= 5.0, odds ratio (OR): 0.49, 95 per cent confidence interval (CI): 0.26-0.90). Eighty per cent expressed stress feelings, mainly nervousness/tension (60 per cent). Adaptability (chi2= 5.3, OR: 0.5, 95 per cent CI: 0.27-0.9), age (chi2= 6.5, OR: 1.03, 95 per cent CI: 1.01-1.06), and female gender (chi2= 4.7, OR: 0.48, 95 per cent CI: 0.25-0.90) were independent predictors of stress feelings. The majority (55 percent) developed sleep disorders, chiefly insomnia (60 percent). Adaptability problems were the only predictor of sleep disorders (chi2= 6.4, OR: 0.5, 95 per cent CI: 0.33-0.87). Psychiatric medication use increased after the earthquake.     

Severe drought and the vitamin A status of rural pre-school children in India

A community-based cross-sectional study was carried out in six drought-affected areas of India in 2003 to assess the impact of drought on the vitamin A status of 3,657 rural pre-school children. The prevalence of Bitot's spots was found to be significantly (p < 0.01) higher (1.8 per cent) during drought (odds ratio (OR) = 2.0; 95 per cent confidence interval: 1.6 -2.7). The dietary intake of vitamin A was lower during drought and in 81 per cent of households it was less than 50 per cent of the recommended rate. Severe drought has an adverse impact on the vitamin A status of rural pre-school children, particularly those with illiterate mothers and belonging to an older age group (p < 0.01). Communities need to be sensitised, therefore, to vitamin A deficiency through health and nutrition education, and there needs to be wider coverage of vitamin A supplementation, particularly among children in drought-affected and drought-prone areas.     

Mother's body mass index as a predictor of infant's nutritional status in the post-emergency phase of a flood

Maternal nutritional status is a determinant of child health. This paper studies the association between a mother's body mass index (BMI) and her infant's nutritional status over a one year time frame after the 1998 flood crisis in Bangladesh. The paper uses secondary analysis of data collected from 757 households in seven rural areas of Bangladesh affected by the 1998 flood using multiple-stage probability sampling techniques (n = 143). Logistic regression models were employed to investigate the predictive impact of maternal BMI on infant's nutritional status after controlling for a range of child and maternal factors. An underweight mother was a significant factor with regard to the risk of infants suffering stunting (odds ratio (OR) = 4.45, 95 per cent confidence interval (CI) = 1.04-18.94) and being underweight (OR = 3.51, 95 per cent CI = 1.02-12.05) a year later, but not wasting (OR = 2.09, 95 per cent CI = 0.51-8.67). The findings suggest that there is a post-emergency link between maternal and infant nutritional health.     

工程区台风大风灾害评估方法的研究与应用——以苏通大桥为例

针对国家重大项目施工和运营中规避台风大风灾害风险的特殊需求,以国家重点工程苏通大桥为例,研究了工程区局地环境下台风大风灾害风险的分析评估方法。利用1949~2007年桥位地区影响台风资料,用气候统计学方法分析了苏通大桥桥位工程区影响台风的时空分布,并用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对8级以上台风大风对桥位区可能造成的灾损指数进行计算。结果表明:①影响桥位区的台风年均2.5个,其中出现8级以上阵风的严重影响台风年均0.78个,工程区从5月下旬~11月下旬均可能受台风袭击,7月上旬~9月中旬是桥位区影响台风的多发期,而8月份几率最大,台风大风主要出现在偏东南和偏北方向;②蒙特卡罗方法模拟的桥位区8级以上台风大风的期望灾损指数达到0.282 1,约占全省台风灾害期望灾损指数的48%,潜在的经济损失达到20 675万元。采用气候统计学原理和蒙特卡罗模拟方法,可以满足局部特殊环境下的对工程区气象灾害风险分析的需要,其结果可以作为施工管理和规避灾害风险的依据。     

The 1998 Flood in Bangladesh: Is Different Targeting Needed During Emergencies and Recovery to Tackle Malnutrition?

Bangladesh suffered the century's worst flood during July-October 1998 and appealed for assistance. To provide information for appropriate interventions to tackle nutritional problems, a rapid assessment survey was conducted to look at the nutritional situation, problems encountered by the community, their coping mechanisms and rehabilitation priorities in six rural areas. The survey was repeated after four months to measure the outcome of activities during the flood and the necessity for future assistance. There were 3,048 children measured in both surveys (1,597 and 1,451). The sample of most interest was a sub-group of 180 children present in two previous independent surveys. The analysis found that while moving from the crisis period to post-flood phase there was evidence of a 'crossover phenomenon' in the recovery pattern of nutritional status. Sixty-eight per cent of the children who were malnourished (WHZ < -2SD) during the crisis period (18 per cent) recovered enough to cross the cut-off point and became normal after four months. Another 8 per cent of children (9 per cent of all normal) who were normal during the crisis period, after four months had deteriorated to be malnourished. Thus, despite there being a shift in the overall distribution of nutritional status, there has been another shift that reduced the net effect. Subsequent episodes of diarrhoea, access to food and loan burden had also influenced the recovery pattern of the children's nutritional status as evident from the statistically significant associations. These findings raise questions about targeting acute malnutrition during emergencies, and using the same criteria during both the crisis and rehabilitation phases.     

Risk of flood-related mortality in Nepal

In July 1993, severe flooding devastated Sarlahi district in Nepal. The next month, a follow-up study of a large population cohort was undertaken. The study is unique in that a prospective research database was used to verify residency prior to the flood and to confirm vital status afterwards. It evaluated 41,501 children aged between two and nine years and adults aged 15-70 in 7,252 households. Flood-related fatality rates were 13.3 per 1,000 for girls and 9.4 per 1,000 for boys, 6.1 per 1,000 for women and 4.1 per 1,000 for men. Flood-related fatality rates for children were six times higher than mortality rates in the same villages a year before the flood (relative risk (RR) = 5.9, 95 per cent confidence interval (CI) 5.0-6.8). Flood-related fatality was associated with low socio-economic status preflood (RR = 6.4, 95 per cent CI 2.7-20.0), and having a house constructed of thatch (RR = 5.1, 95 per cent CI 1.7-24.5).     

Predictors for people's response to a tornado warning: Arkansas, 1 March 1997

On 1 March 1997, powerful tornadoes touched down in Arkansas (USA) on a Saturday afternoon. Twenty-six fatalities and 400 non-fatal injuries were reported. We performed a population-based cross-sectional study to determine factors associated with appropriate responses to tornado warnings. Of 146 survey participants, 140 (96 per cent) knew the difference between 'tornado watch' and 'tornado warning' and were aware of when the warning was announced. Of those 140 participants, 64 (45.7 per cent) responded to the warning by seeking shelter, and 58 (90.6 per cent) of those 64 acted within five minutes of hearing the warning. Four factors were positively associated with those seeking shelter: having graduated from high school (OR = 4.2, 95 per cent CI = 1.1-15.5); having a basement in one's house (OR = 3.8, 95 per cent exact CI = 1.1-17.1); hearing a siren (OR = 4.4, 95 per cent CI = 1.3-18.9); and having prepared a household plan of response when tornadoes occur (OR = 2.6, 95 per cent CI = 1.1-6.3). On the basis of these findings, we recommend: first, that people who live in tornadoprone areas have a personal plan of action to help them respond immediately to warnings; second, public-health education officials in areas with frequent tornadic activity should do more to educate the public about what they can do to protect themselves from a tornado; and third, that emergency-management officials planning protection measures for vulnerable communities should consider that most people have limited time (our study documented five minutes) in which to respond to a tornado warning. Thus, shelters in tornado-prone areas should be quickly accessible by residents.     

上海气象参数与太阳活动和ENSO的关系

运用2进小波的分解与重构技术分析了太阳活动、厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENS0)与上海地区月降水量、月均气压和月均温度序列之间的可能关系。研究结果表明，在不同的时间尺度(频带)上太阳活动和ENS0对上海的月降水量、月均气压和月均温度有不同的影响；在某种程度上ENS0活动对上海月降水量和月均气温的影响强于太阳活动的影响。结果还清楚表明和证实了在不同频带上太阳活动与ENS0活动之间的密切联系。     

Reproductive health in Afghanistan: results of a knowledge, attitudes and practices survey among Afghan women in Kabul

A reproductive-health knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) survey was carried out among 468 Afghan women of reproductive age. A convenience sample of women was selected from attendees in the outpatient departments of four health facilities in Kabul. Seventy-nine per cent of respondents had attended at least one antenatal consultation during their last pregnancy. Two-thirds (67 per cent) delivered their first child between 13 and 19 years. The Caesarean-section rate was low (1.6 per cent). Two-thirds (67 per cent) of deliveries occurred in the home. The contraceptive prevalence rate was 23 per cent (16 per cent modern and 7 per cent natural methods). Twenty-four per cent had knowledge of any STIs, although most of these women did not know correctly how to prevent them. Most of the women (93 per cent) needed authorization from their husband or a male relative before seeking professional health-care. In multivariate analysis, women's schooling was significantly associated with antenatal-care attendance (AOR 4.78), institutional delivery (AOR 2.29), skilled attendance at birth (AOR 2.07) and use of family planning (AOR 4.59). Reproductive-health indicators were noted to be poor even among these women living in Kabul, a group often considered to be the most privileged. To meet the reproductive-health needs of Afghan women, the socio-cultural aspects of their situation--especially their decision-making abilities -- will need to be addressed. A long-standing commitment from agencies and donors is required, in which the education of women should be placed as a cornerstone of the reconstruction process of Afghanistan.     

The great Australian drought: 1982-1983*

The development of drought over eastern Australia from April 1982 to February 1983 is described. National wheat production for the 1982-1983 season was 63 per cent of the average for the previous five years, while for New South Wales and Victoria production was 29 and 16 per cent respectively. Production of other grains was similarly reduced. Net value of rural production was reduced from over $4,000 million to $2,300 million nationally, the percentage reduction being much larger in drought-affected States. Methods of assessing drought severity are discussed and it is concluded that the 1982-1983 drought must be regarded as one of the most severe in the last 100 years. Impact of drought is also discussed, including that on wheat production and sheep and cattle populations since 1885. It is suggested that the limits of grain growing areas, and of sheep and cattle populations, beyond which environmental degradation may occur, have been exceeded during that period. The view is expressed that more attention should be given to the development of strategies to ameliorate drought impacts.     

Changes in HIV/AIDS/STI knowledge, attitudes and practices among commercial sex workers and military forces in Port Loko, Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone suffered from 11 years of civil war (1991-2002) resulting in tens of thousands of deaths and mutilations together with massive population displacement. In 2001, ARC International, Sierra Leone conducted a baseline survey of 201 commercial sex workers (CSWs) and 202 military respondents on the knowledge, attitudes and practices surrounding HIV/AIDS and STIs in Port Loko, Sierra Leone. In 2003, a comparable post-intervention survey of 202 CSWs and 205 military respondents was performed. Comparison of baseline and post-intervention results showed that HIV/AIDS knowledge increased among both groups, with those able to name three effective means of avoiding AIDS increasing from 5 per cent to 70 per cent among CSWs, and 11 to 75 per cent among the military. Reported condom use during last sex increased among CSWs from 38 to 68 per cent and among military from 39 to 68 per cent. These results demonstrate that, despite the challenges inherent in a post-conflict country, good-quality AIDS-prevention programmes can be effective.     

Epidemiology of tornado destruction in rural northern Bangladesh: risk factors for death and injury

The epidemiology of tornado-related disasters in the developing world is poorly understood. An August 2005 post-tornado cohort study in rural Bangladesh identified elevated levels of death and injury among the elderly (≥ 60 years of age) (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 8.9 (95 per cent confidence interval (CI): 3.9-20.2) and AOR = 1.6 (95 per cent CI: 1.4-1.8), respectively), as compared to 15-24 year-olds, and among those outdoors versus indoors during the tornado (AOR = 10.4 (95 per cent CI: 5.5-19.9) and AOR = 6.6 (95 per cent CI: 5.8-7.5), respectively). Females were 1.24 times (95 per cent CI: 1.15-1.33) more likely to be injured than males. Elevated risk of injury was significantly associated with structural damage to the house and tin construction materials. Seeking treatment was protective against death among the injured, odds ratio = 0.08 (95 per cent CI: 0.03-0.21). Further research is needed to develop injury prevention strategies and to address disparities in risk between age groups and between men and women.     

The relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillations and cereal production in Sahel

The effect of drought on crop yield and water resources has been an important socio-economic concern in the Sahel region of Africa. The most severe droughts in the Sahel region occurred during the strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. There is thus increased need to understand the stochastic relationship between such physical mechanism like ENSO and crop yield. In this paper, such a relationship is investigated using a wavelet approach. Our result shows that a statistically significant relationship exists between ENSO and cereal production in the region. In particular, El Niño events are devastation to millet yield with little or no impact on maize and sorghum production. This can be attributed to the lower length of growing period for maize and sorghum compared to millet. On the other hand La Niña events favor cereal production and mirrored sorghum yield during the La Niña years of 1973–1976. The potential value of ENSO-based rainfall forecast and socio-economic impact on local population in Sahel region are discussed.