汶川地震滑坡发育特征及其影响因素

汶川地震是近年来我国发生的最严重的自然灾害,地震触发了大量的滑坡,造成了严重的人员伤亡和财产损失。根据汶川地震滑坡的调查和勘测,探讨了滑坡的发育特征及其影响因素,旨在为汶川地震滑坡的减灾防灾提供理论依据。分析了地震滑坡的优势坡度范围和最优坡度;地震滑坡面积-频率分布符合对数分布规律而不同于降雨等诱发滑坡的幂律分布。坡向与断层破裂方向的夹角控制着汶川地震滑坡频率、坡度和面积的分布,当坡向与断层破裂方向一致时,受地震抛掷作用滑坡发育的频率和面积的比例大、滑坡平均坡度小;当坡向与断层破裂方向相反和坡向与断层的倾向一致时,受地震撞击崩裂作用,滑坡发育的频率和面积的比例较小、滑坡平均坡度较大。     

长江新滩滑坡的历史分析，趋势预测与启示

从对新滩滑坡的历史回顾分析入手,得出新滩滑坡具有时空上的周期性和继承性规律。着重阐述了１９８５年６月１２日新滩滑坡的形成过程,分析了其机理和形成原因,并由此得出对三峡库区滑坡灾害在治理上的重要启示。     

武隆滑坡形成机理与成灾分析

２００１年５月１日，重庆市武隆具发生了一起严重的滑坡灾难，滑坡体积仅１．２万ｍ３，摧毁了一幢９层商 住楼．造成７９人死亡，中断３１９国道４昼夜，这次滑坡灾害是在特殊的环境条件下形成和发生的，具有压制 拉裂一拱溃剧滑的力学机理．类似的滑坡灾害还有１９８７年９月 １日重庆市巫溪县发生的南门湾岩崩、１９９７ 年７月１７日四川省兴文县发生的金风村滑坡．这些滑坡灾害的惨痛教训说明，县、乡、村级基层组织防灾 减灾的意识淡薄，防灾减灾的科普宣传、教育还未落到实处；因此必须加强县、乡、村级的防灾减灾工作．     

Preliminary assessment of landslides resulting from the earthquake of 23rd November 1980 in Southern Italy

This paper examines the hazards, mechanisms and effects of landsliding provoked by the 1980 earthquake in Campania and Basilicata Regions, Southern Italy. The effects of seismically-induced mass-movement are assessed with respect to slope stability and damage to both settlements and roads. Whereas the mechanism of cyclic loading of soils, which can give rise to landslides, is different from the pore-pressure, gravity loading and strength-reduction mechanisms that normally cause slope failure, the morphology of slides is often indistinguishable and this made it difficult to identify which slides were directly caused by the earthquake. However, creep in potential shear planes undoubtably became more widespread, and the incidence of small, bowl-shaped slides Increased as a direct result of the earthquake. Although variations in the detailed stress-pattern within individual slopes meant that some very mobile soil and rock masses did not move, 36 settlements reported landslide damage and 29 roads were affected by landslides occurring during the earthquake and its immediate aftermath. A full assessment of the disaster, together with an explanation of the geography of the disaster area, can be found in Alexander (1982).     

皖南山区滑坡灾害调查及评估方法

对皖南山区三个自然村的滑坡灾害进行了现场调查,分析研究了引起滑坡的机理,对滑坡造成的房屋损失和无家可归人员进行了分类、评估,给出了地质灾害评估的方法。     

基于C/S的三峡云阳-巫山段滑坡数据管理系统

长江三峡云阳-巫山段是三峡库区滑坡分布密集灾情严重的一个区域,随着库水位抬升到135 m以及今后的175 m,势必会加剧原有滑坡以及危险斜坡的不稳定性.本研究是在前期工作的基础上,开发出用以管理研究区数量繁多灾害点的管理系统.     

Educational hazards? The politics of disaster risk education in Rio de Janeiro

Disaster education outcomes are highly dependent on the political context of that education. Based on a rich, in‐depth case study of the creation of community monitors in a landslide and flood‐prone city in southeast Brazil, this paper demonstrates how developmental and political environments add much additional nuance to existing theories of behaviourist and transformative education for disaster preparedness and mitigation. Beyond identifying the benefits of education, it argues that disaster risk reduction outcomes are reliant on governance frameworks that alter over time. The study reveals the political complexity associated with programme implementation and cites the perspectives of a number of participants. Disaster education is shown to be the necessary yet underappreciated twin of the militarised and technical approaches that dominate disaster response in Brazil. Understated, however, is education's situatedness: how it can become an arena of conflict between government and civil actors over matters of state and society in increasingly hazardous urbanisation settings in Latin America.     

贡献权重叠加法的滑坡危险度区划研究

介绍的贡献权重叠加的滑坡危险度区划方法,是基于GIS技术将环境本底因子对滑坡发育的贡献作用进行量化统计后,通过贡献率与权重的转换,分别计算这些因子的自权重和互权重,再与每一个因子叠加。该方法的特点是评价模型简单,选取的因子指标可以直接从数值图件和野外调查中获得,定量化效果明显。     

香港地区滑坡体积与前期降水关系分析

滑坡灾害发生的因子可以分为两种类型 ,即滑坡体所处的环境静态因子 ,如地形、地质等 ,和滑坡的诱发因子 ,如强降水、地震等。香港地处夏季多雨的热带地区 ,每年均有大量因暴雨导致的滑坡灾害出现。为分析滑坡大小与前期降水的关系 ,文中选择了 2 6 2个滑坡样例 ,对它们进行了多种周期前期降水的定量化研究 ,发现不同类型的滑坡出现与前期降水有不同的关联关系 :每种类型的滑坡中体积较大的滑坡与前期降水均有明显的关系 ;对多数体积较小的滑坡 ,滑坡体积与前期降水量并没有明显的正相关关系。     

Health Assessment of the 1985 Flood Disaster in Puerto Rico

In Puerto Rico, during October 1985, tropical storm Isabel caused widespread flooding, landslides, and collapsing of bridges. A maximum of 180 persons died, including an estimated 127 at a landslide where the majority (78%) of deaths resulted from traumatic injury. Approximately 3,000 homes were damaged with 4,400 persons temporarily displaced into 44 shelters. A shelter surveillance system was established to monitor 19 acute and chronic conditions in 28 shelters during a 5-week period. Trend analysis trends of selected reportable communicable diseases in the general community revealed no changes attributable to the disaster in the 12 most severely affected municipalities. In these municipalities, the number of persons using the scheduled outpatient clinics after the disaster decreased significantly, but the mean daily number of emergency room visits did not show significant change. Analysis of surveillance data showed that no infectious disease outbreaks had occurred in the shelters. The post-impact health consequences resulting from this widespread flooding were minimal. Even so, disease surveillance remains essential for efficacious resource allocation and prevention strategies.     

Climate change implications for disaster risk management in Japan: A case study on perceptions of risk management personnel and communities in Saijo city

This paper reviews climate change impacts and the existing disaster risk management system in Japan and offers the results of a structured questionnaire survey of the community leaders and disaster risk management personnel of Saijo city of Japan that assesses their perceptions about dealing with the extreme disasters by the existing disaster risk management systems. This study was inspired by the record number of typhoon landfall that has surprised the local government and communities in 2004. While unearthing the hidden vulnerabilities in cities like Saijo, this event has loosened the confidence of local communities on the disaster risk management systems. From the study, we conclude that the existing disaster risk management systems need further fillip and that the proactive community involvement in disaster risk management is still in nascent stages. Associating with the scientific community, involving the local communities (including the elderly), enhancing the redundancy in disaster risk management systems, inculcating strategic thinking and micro-level planning, conducting vulnerability assessments by considering the special circumstances including resource constraints of small cities and better policy coordination across the administrative hierarchy are some important considerations for dealing with the uncertainty brought by the extreme events.     

国内外地震滑坡灾害研究综述

对地震灾害较严重的美国、意大利、希腊等国家在地震滑坡灾害方面所做的研究工作进行了总结,并与我国的研究成果进行了对比。给出了国内外对地震滑坡的分类，论述了地震滑坡在面积范围、密度及滑坡体积等方面与地震震级、地震烈度、震中距等参数之间的关系；对地震时易于触发滑坡的地貌坡度及地质构造等因素进行了分析。最后对国外地震滑坡灾害预测研究进行了概述。     

基于因子分析和BP神经网络的滑坡抗剪强度参数取值

滑坡抗剪强度参数取值是一直困扰滑坡防治工程设计的一大难题,目前其研究方法主要有试验法、反分析和统计分析法,但都没有考虑其他基本物理力学参数的影响。为此,提出了以某一区域工程地质条件相似的滑坡基本物理力学参数为基础,采用SPSS数学分析软件分析滑坡各基本物理力学参数与抗剪强度的相关性,筛选出对滑坡抗剪强度影响较大的因子;然后采用BP神经网络模型研究区域滑坡抗剪强度与影响因子的网络结构,并以建立的神经网络结构对该区域的滑坡抗剪强度参数进行估算;最后以万州区滑坡为例进行分析和验证。研究结果表明,采用神经网络计算的结果与滑坡试验得到的结果误差基本都在5%左右,精度较高。     

长江三峡库区滑坡变形统计特征研究

三峡库区受到蓄水影响的滑坡众多,其对库区人民生命财产构成严重威胁。该文通过统计得出,从2003年6月10日蓄水以来,2 619个涉水滑坡中有674个出现变形或失稳。经过分析得出:(1)三峡库区滑坡75.5%的变形发生在分阶段蓄水周期内,54.3%的变形发生在三个初次升降周期内;在分阶段蓄水期内64.1%滑坡变形发生在库水上升及稳定阶段;在正常运营周期内,75.7%滑坡变形发生在库水下降及稳定阶段。(2)滑坡变形与库水位变动过程具有明显的相关性,但在库水循环变动作用下滑坡变形数量及变形程度呈现逐年减少变缓的趋势。(3)滑坡变形动态因素为库水位升降与降雨,内在因素主要受斜坡结构、滑面形态、涉水程度、渗透特性的影响。     

基于变形监测的运动型滑坡临灾预警系统研究

运动型滑坡处于蠕动变形与剧烈变形阶段之间,变形时间长、机理复杂,临灾预警难度大。介绍了典型运动型滑坡的累积位移关系曲线特征,提出了以日降雨量、日位移速率建立临灾预警线,进而设计递进式滑坡临灾预警系统的方法。结合王家坡滑坡地形地貌、剖面特征、变形信息等,建立合理的监测网络。根据获取的王家坡累积位移-时间-降雨量关系曲线,分析王家坡滑坡的变形规律。结果表明：①王家坡滑坡监测累积位移曲线随降雨呈“阶跃”特征;②当日降雨量超过25 mm时,日位移速率就会显著增加到20 mm/d以上;③以降雨量、日位移速率达到阈值时为Ⅲ级黄色线中心线,可以设计王家坡滑坡5级递进式滑坡临灾预警系统。     

三峡库区强降水的数值模拟及其在滑坡灾害预报中的应用

采用中尺度数值模式MM5V3对三峡库区22次强降水过程进行了数值模拟,以检验该模式对库区强降水的模拟能力和对高度场与温度场的模拟状况;详细介绍了该模式对一次强降水过程的模拟结果,并分析了该次降水的成因;将MMSV3模式与关于三峡库区滑坡发生的预报模型相结合,对发生在宜昌的一次滑坡灾害进行了预报试验。结果表明,中尺度数值模式MMSV3对三峡库区的强降水具有较好的模拟能力,能较好地刻画出降水的分布及其成因;模式预报的降水,结合库区滑坡预报方程成功预报了宜昌滑坡的发生;该方法为三峡库区滑坡灾害的预警提供了一种新思路。     

Waiting for the flood: technocratic time and impending disaster in the Himalayas

A landslide occurred in the region of Zanskar in the Indian Himalayas in 2015, damming the Tsarap River, creating a lake that effectively became a ticking time bomb, threatening villagers downstream. During the period between the discovery of the natural dam and the bursting of the lake, the state's approach to disaster management plunged the local population into a situation where ‘technocratic time’ ruled, as government experts handled the impending disaster at a rhythm dictated by the production of studies and reports. Analysis of the temporality of disaster mitigation and preparedness measures during this anticipated flood, as well as of the factors that surrounded the events, reveals how attitudes towards the state shaped people's perceptions of these interventions. In Zanskar, the technocratic pace and the state's lack of transparency were seen as a form of oppression that further marginalised the region, in particular by subjecting its population to the process of waiting.     

基于GIS的新源县滑坡灾害分析与区划

新源县是新疆滑坡灾害的多发区。基于GIS的多元信息整合与空间分析功能,分析了近年新源县449个滑坡灾害点的监测数据,探讨了该区滑坡的发育特征,进行了滑坡灾害危险性区划。结果表明,地质条件是滑坡灾害形成的基本因素,降雨是滑坡灾害的主要诱发因素,过度放牧等人类活动也是促发滑坡灾害发生发展的重要因素之一。由此,为避免滑坡灾害,减少在上述地形地质条件下的不合理人类活动、合理安排牲畜数量以减少环境负荷是决策关键。     

古浪-海原地区滑坡分布规律的模糊综合评判

本文在研究古浪-海原地区地震滑坡和重力滑坡形成条件和特点的基础上,首次采用多因素模糊数学综合评判方法对这一地区的滑坡空间分布特征进行了探讨和预测,提高了区域滑坡分布规律和危险性预测的深度和广度,为本区滑坡灾害的预测预防提供了重要的依据。     

青藏高原东端甘肃舟曲牙豁口滑坡复活机理研究

为深入研究青藏高原古滑坡复活机理,以甘肃舟曲县东山镇牙豁口滑坡为对象,通过对INSAR监测数据和现场地表监测数据的深入分析,探讨了舟曲县东山镇牙豁口滑坡的滑动变形阶段,并揭示其复活驱动机理。鉴于牙豁口滑坡最先启动块体高陡的后壁和侧壁失稳下滑形态可知,降雨可能只是一个诱发因子,真正触发牙豁口滑坡复活的根本原因是滑坡后缘岩土体的崩落和坪定-化马断裂带错动的影响。根据现场调查显示,目前牙豁口滑坡HI1后壁的稳定性依然较差,存在多个潜在变形区,一旦这些潜在变形体发生崩塌破坏,必然造成牙豁口滑坡的再次复活,并形成堰塞湖。通过对牙豁口滑坡复活的现场勘查与触发因子分析,为今后该区滑坡灾害的防治减灾提供必要的借鉴和依据,也对古滑坡复活机理研究提供了新的参考。