Natural hazard events and social capital: the social impact of natural disasters

This study investigates if and to what extent natural disasters affect social capital. Twelve different events in Europe are examined in a quantitative analysis, using data derived from the European Social Survey and the EM‐DAT International Disaster Database. The study uses social trust as an indicator of social capital and offers evidence that a change in social trust is a possible occurrence during or after a disaster, but that it is not an inevitable consequence of it. The results reveal that social trust decreases after a disaster with a death toll of at least nine. Changes in social capital, therefore, are found to be more probable as the severity of the event increases. National, rather than regional, disasters lead more frequently to significant shifts in social trust. This evaluation of 12 separate cases pinpoints several disasters that have had an effect on social trust, but it does not identify any general patterns, underlining the significance of contextual dependency.     

Judgement days: moral attitudes in the wake of local disasters

The deaths and destruction stemming from a disaster are traumatic enough to implicate victims' beliefs not only about disasters themselves but also about other social and political concerns. In particular, disasters are associated with the scapegoating of out‐groups, suggesting that even deep‐rooted moral concerns may shift, at least temporarily, after disasters. This study uses exposure to local natural disaster fatalities to examine moral judgements regarding gays¹ in United States surveys from 1984–98. Survey respondents whose county has suffered a disaster feel appreciably more negatively towards gays, even though most of the disasters in this data set are relatively small and local. The increased antipathy towards gays dissipates within months, and is most marked among those who had, before the disaster, considered themselves more religious. These results raise the possibility that some groups, especially those already marginalised by society, may suffer in a backlash in the wake of a natural disaster.     

Trust via disasters: the case of Chile's 2010 earthquake

Chile has a long‐standing history of natural disasters and, in particular, earthquakes. The latest big earthquake hit Chile on 27 February 2010 with a magnitude of 8.8 on the Richter scale. As an event that had a profound impact on significant portions of the population, the earthquake could theoretically have served to build trust by promoting new trust networks through the enhancement of distant family ties and the interaction between affected neighbours. This study offers an empirical analysis of this theory in the Chilean case. It finds that if initial social capital is very low (thus allowing for post‐disaster looting and violence), then the impact of the trust‐increasing effect is smaller. It also shows that the effect of the disaster was not transitory, but that it persisted and actually increased over time.     

Trust,but verify: social media models for disaster management

A lack of trust in the information exchanged via social media may significantly hinder decisionmaking by community members and emergency services during disasters. The need for timely information at such times, though, challenges traditional ways of establishing trust. This paper, building on a multi‐year research project that combined social media data analysis and participant observation within an emergency management organisation and in‐depth engagement with stakeholders across the sector, pinpoints and examines assumptions governing trust and trusting relationships in social media disaster management. It assesses three models for using social media in disaster management—information gathering, quasi‐journalistic verification, and crowdsourcing—in relation to the guardianship of trust to highlight the verification process for content and source and to identify the role of power and responsibilities. The conclusions contain important implications for emergency management organisations seeking to enhance their mechanisms for incorporating user‐generated information from social media sources in their disaster response efforts.     

2008年中国大陆地震灾害损失述评

在列出2008年中国5级以上地震目录的基础上,结合有关省(自治区、直辖市)地震局的地震灾害评估资料,总结出2008年中国大陆地震灾害的主要数据和特性。最后对1990-2008年中国大陆地震灾害的相应数据进行了简要的比较分析。     

科技信任、管理信任及其对公众水灾风险认知的影响——基于长江中下游的社会调查

信任和风险在一定程度上互为因果,两者通过认知行为决策及行为后果这一环节构建互馈关系。探索公众对社会减灾能力的信任及其对灾害风险认知的影响机制,有助于揭示灾害风险的潜在因素,调适风险认知与避灾行为,从而降低灾害风险。选取水灾发生频繁、强度大、防洪措施多样的长江中下游地区为研究区,运用随机抽样调查和入户访谈相结合的方式获取资料,研究公众的水灾科技信任和管理信任的水平、影响机制、动机-效应差异。主要结论有:①公众科技信任水平普遍高于管理信任。信任水平受到公众性别、年龄、灾害经历、城乡差异等因素不同程度的影响,信任具有区域共构的特点;②科技信任改变了公众水灾风险认知,加强了其灾害应对信心,降低了其对受灾风险的估测,对其避灾行为倾向影响显著,而管理信任对公众水灾风险认知及防灾备灾行为倾向的影响均不大;③信任的产生动机以认可减灾措施有用性为前提,科技减灾和管理减灾由于具有不同的减灾原理及作用时段,导致了公众的不同信任动机及其效应。     

When information becomes action: drivers of individuals' trust in broadcast versus peer‐to‐peer information in disaster response

Information and communications technology (ICT), primarily mobile telephones and social media, is increasingly important in crisis and disaster response in developing countries. This fact raises an important question: in an information environment that includes traditional media such as radio and television, who are the people that trust information from ICT enough to act on it during a disaster? Drawing on a case study of and original survey data from the island nation of the Independent State of Samoa, this paper yields insights into who uses new technologies, particularly mobile telephones, to make decisions at the local level during crises such as natural disasters, as well as the socio‐political factors that motivate their behaviour. The results add to the growing pool of knowledge on utilisation of ICT and new technologies in developing countries for disaster response, and provide practical information on the social and political factors that lead people to trust different information sources and media.     

论江西洪涝灾害

在调查研究的基础上 ,依据大量历史资料 ,对建国 50 a年来江西洪涝灾害发生的类型、面积及其造成的严重损失进行了分析 ,并提出了防御洪涝灾害的对策和措施 ,对减轻江西洪涝灾害 ,实现全省农业跨世纪的持续发展具有指导意义     

The public health system response to the 2008 Sichuan province earthquake: a literature review and interviews

This paper describes and analyses the public health system response to the deadly earthquake in Sichuan province, China, in May 2008. Drawing on an experiential learning project consisting of a literature review and field research, including a series of interviews with medical and public health professionals, policy‐makers and first responders, a conceptual framework was developed to describe the response. This approach emphasises the pre‐existing preparedness level of the medical and public health systems, as well as social, economic and geo‐political factors that had an impact on mitigation efforts. This framework was used to conduct post‐disaster analyses addressing major response issues and examining methods employed during the public health response to the disaster. This framework could be used to describe and analyse the emergency response to other disasters.     

2005年中国大陆地震灾害损失述评

在列出2005年中国5级以上地震目录的基础上，结合有关省（自治区、直辖市）地震局的地震灾害评估资料，总结了2005年中国大陆地震灾害的主要数据和特性。最后列出了1990—2005年中国大陆地震灾害的相应数据，并进行了简要的比较。     

Looking forward: Disasters at 40

This paper reflects on contemporary studies of and responses to disasters, highlighting the importance of historical, spatial, and intersectional modes of analysis, and draws on the author's ongoing research on Southern‐led and local community responses to displacement in the Middle East. Acknowledging the plurality of ‘international communities of response’, it begins by critiquing the depiction of selected responses to disasters as ‘positive’ ‘paradigm shifts’, including in reference to the ‘localisation of aid, and the United Nations’ Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan for Syria. Next it turns to three key themes that are central to disasters studies: migration; forced displacement; and Southern‐led responses to disasters. Among other things, the paper argues that exploring the principles and modalities of South–South cooperation, rather than promoting the incorporation of Southern actors into the ‘international humanitarian system’ via the localisation agenda, presents a critical opportunity for studies of and responses to disasters.     

Exploring the administrative mechanism of China's Paired Assistance to Disaster Affected Areas programme

The Paired Assistance to Disaster Affected Areas (PADAA) programme is a mutual aid initiative with Chinese characteristics, which speeded up the process of restoring and reconstructing regions affected by the Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May 2008. 1 The PADAA is an efficient instrument for catastrophe recovery, yet it remains a mysterious mechanism to many members of disaster management communities. This paper aims to lift the veil on it by assessing its origins and evolution. It draws on the multi‐level moderated competition model to explain how the PADAA functions within the Chinese administrative system. The country's top‐down political system allows the central authority to mandate provincial and local governments from more economically developed regions to assist devastated areas with post‐disaster reconstruction. The practices of local accountability complement vertical control by giving leaders from donor regions strong incentives to accomplish assigned reconstruction tasks, resulting in intense competition between them.     

Humanitarian aid and local responses: the aftermath of the rebuilding effort on Tongoa island,Vanuatu

Cyclone Pam swept through the archipelago of Vanuatu on 13–14 March 2015, with wind speeds exceeding those recorded anywhere in the South Pacific since the 1980s. Southern and central parts of the country were particularly affected. Material damage on Tongoa, one of the most afflicted islands, was extensive, but no deaths were reported. During the storm, villagers found shelter in their kitchen, in what is considered locally as a ‘lifeboat’. The aftermath was managed and mitigated by international aid organisations. On Tongoa, this included a ‘Shelter Cluster’ programme, under which villagers were given house rebuilding kits. Elaborating upon extensive ethnographic investigations on site between 2011 and 2018, this paper explores and reveals the ways in which this aid generated confusion among the local population. In a larger context of regular disasters triggered by natural hazards, locals have found endogenous ways of dealing with such extreme climatic events, for the most part without any external assistance.     

1997/1998厄尔尼诺与江苏气象灾害及对农业影响的分析

１９９７／１９９８厄尔尼诺事件在１９９７～１９９８年冬春给江苏省带来严重气象灾害， 导致三麦、油菜减产近３成。夏季长江出现仅次于１９５４年的全流域性特大洪涝， 形势十分严峻。本文以大量翔实的数据与灾情资料， 分析了厄尔尼诺与江苏气象灾害的密切关系， 提请人们关注厄尔尼诺， 预防气象灾害。     

Gauging the societal impacts of natural disasters using a capability approach

There is a widely acknowledged need for a single composite index that provides a comprehensive picture of the societal impact of disasters. A composite index combines and logically organizes important information policy‐makers need to allocate resources for the recovery from natural disasters; it can also inform hazard mitigation strategies. This paper develops a Disaster Impact Index (DII) to gauge the societal impact of disasters on the basis of the changes in individuals’ capabilities. The DII can be interpreted as the disaster impact per capita. Capabilities are dimensions of individual well‐being and refer to the genuine opportunities individuals have to achieve valuable states and activities (such as being adequately nourished or being mobile). After discussing the steps required to construct the DII, this article computes and compares the DIIs for two earthquakes of similar magnitude in two societies at different levels of development and of two disasters (earthquake and wind storm) in the same society.     

An assessment of Disaster Risk and its Management in Thailand

Historically, Thailand has been a disaster-free country, suffering only minor losses from natural hazards through the years. Emerging as a newly industrialised nation, the kingdom now faces an increased risk of economic and public damage from man-made disasters associated with rapid development. A risk assessment was carried out on the level of disaster management. That assessment was preceded by an analysis of the traditional definitions of disaster risk, resulting in a redefinition to fit the needs of this study. This holds that the risk of disaster is the product of hazards, vulnerability and the level of management exercised over both the hazard and the vulnerable elements.
The results of the risk assessment, conducted through analysis of those three components, are discussed along with impediments which may hinder good disaster or accident management. Floods, in both natural and man-made manifestations, were identified as the highest risk factor, followed by major accidents and explosions, both man-made hazards. Major recommendations arising from the study included the consolidation of disaster management responsibilities currently held by several agencies into a central co-ordinating committee, the review and restructure of related law and regulations, the conduct of provincial and country-wide hazard assessments and the creation of a 'culture of safety' in Thailand     

农业气象灾害对江苏淮北地区冬小麦产量的影响分析

本文用拉朗日插值法推算江苏省淮北地区冬小麦在无农业气象灾害条件下从1960－2000年41年的期望产量，并用用S软件建立气象灾害对冬小麦产量影响的逐步回归模型，分析了各类农业气象灾害对产量的影响。对指导淮北地区有针对性地防御农业气象灾害，降低其对冬小麦产量的 影响有重要的实际意义。     

陕西省自然灾害的社会易损性分析

应用主成分分析法,选取10个主要社会经济指标,以陕西省的11个地级市作为研究对象,对其自然灾害社会易损性进行分析。确定三个主成分作为评价自然灾害社会易损性的指标,计算得出陕西省各地市相应主成分的得分和排名,在此基础上对相应地区的自然灾害社会易损性进行评价。     

2009年中国大陆地震灾害损失述评

在列出2009年中国5.0级以上地震目录的基础上,结合年度有关省(自治区、直辖市)地震局的地震灾害评估资料,总结出2009年中国大陆地震灾害的主要数据和特性。最后对自1990年以来中国大陆地震灾害的相关数据进行了简要的比较。     

Disaster risk,social vulnerability,and economic development

This paper examines the extent to which economic development decreases a country's risk of experiencing climate‐related disasters as well as the societal impacts of those events. The paper proceeds from the underlying assumption that disasters are not inherently natural, but arise from the intersection of naturally‐occurring hazards within fragile environments. It uses data from the International Disaster Database (EM‐DAT), 1 representing country‐year‐level observations over the period 1980–2007. The study finds that low‐income countries are significantly more at risk of climate‐related disasters, even after controlling for exposure to climate hazards and other factors that may confound disaster reporting. Following the occurrence of a disaster, higher income generally diminishes a country's social vulnerability to such happenings, resulting in lower levels of mortality and morbidity. This implies that continued economic development may be a powerful tool for lessening social vulnerability to climate change.