Economic modelling of sulphur regulations in Poland

This study presents an assessment of the possible consequences of reducing the emission of sulphur dioxide in Poland according to international sulphur agreement. A computable general equilibrium model was used for this purpose. The model, calibrated for 1995, provides results for year 2010 which suggest that future emission reductions may have positive effects on Polish economic indicators. We should not fear an economic slump in the emitting sectors. Some sectors may increase their sulphur dioxide emissions initially and abate them later, rather than decrease their emissions at once. Poor households may gain, because the welfare effect on them will be positive.     

Past and future trends in concentrations of sulphur and nitrogen compounds in the Arctic

Recent trends in nitrogen and sulphur compounds in air and precipitation from a range of Arctic monitoring stations are presented, with seasonal data from the late 70s to 2004 or 2005. Earlier findings of declining sulphur concentrations are confirmed for most stations, while the pattern is less clear for reduced and oxidized nitrogen. In fact there are positive trends for nitrogen compounds in air at several stations. Acidity is generally reduced at many stations while the precipitation amount is either increasing or stable. Variability of sulphate concentrations in air for the period 1991–2000 is reasonably well reproduced at most stations using an Eulerian, hemispherical model. Results for nitrogen compounds are weaker. Scenario studies show that even if large sulphur emission reductions take place in important source regions in South-East Asia in the coming decades, only small changes in Arctic deposition can be expected. This is because South-East Asian emissions have small influence north of the Arctic circle.     

Characterisation of non-condensable sulphur containing gases from Kraft pulp mills

This paper describes work performed on the sampling and analysis of non-condensable gases (NCG) emitted from diffuse sources of a Portuguese Kraft pulp mill, which is the background information for a NCG collection, treatment and disposal system. The variability found in the composition of the gaseous compounds showed the existence of gaseous streams other than typical total reduced sulphur (TRS) compounds as usually described. From the measured TRS concentrations and the gas flow rate from each source it was possible to calculate the emission flow rate, E, of each source. These emission flow rates were then divided into three categories which are quite useful to identify significant sources and to choose abatement techniques. The methodology presented allows for a precise quantification of sources so that similar emissions can be grouped for treatment purposes. Sources with an emission flow rate bigger than 1 kg/h have a marked effect on the overall TRS emissions of the mill, as they are major contributors. It was also found that a new analytical procedure using Restek columns is more easy to use and overcomes operational problems noticed previously, namely a run time of 20-25 min instead of 50-60 min.     

Foliar sulphur species in pine: a new indicator of a forest ecosystem under air pollution stress

An eleven-year foliar sulphur (S) monitoring program was carried out from 1976 to 1986 near a sulphur recovery-gas plant in west-central Alberta, Canada, as part of a case study designed to determine the effects of chronic, low concentration sulphur gas emissions on the forest ecosystem surrounding the gas plant. Measurements of both foliar total sulphur (ST) and foliar inorganic sulphur (SO4-S) concentration in lodgepole x jack pine trees at the end of each of the 11 growing seasons were taken to provide an indication of S loading of the forest from industrial sulphur emissions. To measure the state of the forest ecosystem, foliar ST was separated into foliar accumulated sulphur (inorganic sulphur or SO4-S) and foliar assimilated sulphur (organic sulphur or S0) and the ratio of SO4-S/S0 taken. Foliar S0 was calculated as the difference between foliar ST and foliar SO4-S. The median SO4-S/S0 ratio, with all three years of needles considered, varied from 0.29 at a reference location (AV) to 0.88 at the location with the highest stress (AI). The corresponding mean values ranged from 0.3 at the reference location to 2.2 at the location of highest stress. The mean seasonal photosynthetic rate of current year's foliage of the pine trees and soil pH were reduced at a stressed location (AI) compared to the reference location (AV), between 1976 and 1981. Over this same time period the mean foliar SO4-S/S0 ratio increased from 0.4 +/- 0.1 to 1.0 +/- 0.3 at the stressed location (AI) and remained nearly the same at the reference location (AV) at 0.3 +/- 0.1. This research suggests that the foliar SO4-S/S0 ratio is a useful indicator of the state of forest ecosystems under S air pollution stress. It is concluded that foliar S separated into various fractions has potential as an early warning environmental management tool.     

Modelling the atmospheric transport and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen over the United Kingdom and assessment of the influence of SO2 emissions from international shipping

A statistical Lagrangian atmospheric transport model was used to generate annual maps of deposition of sulphur and oxidised and reduced nitrogen for the UK at a 5×5 km² resolution. The model was run using emissions for the year 2002. The model was compared with measurements of gas concentrations (SO₂, NO_x, HNO₃ and NH₃) and of wet deposition and aerosol concentrations of SO₄²⁻, NO₃⁻ and NH₄⁺ from national monitoring networks. Good correlation was obtained, demonstrating that the model is capable of accurately estimating the mass balance and spatial distribution of sulphur and nitrogen compounds in the atmosphere. A future emissions scenario for the year 2020 was used to test the influence of shipping emissions on sulphur deposition in the UK. The results show that, if shipping emissions are assumed to increase at a rate of 2.5% per year, their relative contribution to sulphur deposition is expected to increase from 9% to 28% between 2002 and 2020. The model was compared to both a European scale and a global scale chemical transport model and found to give broad agreement with the magnitude and location of sulphur deposition associated with shipping emissions. Enforcement of the MARPOL convention to reduce the sulphur content in marine fuel to 1% was estimated to result in a 6% reduction in total sulphur deposition to the UK for the year 2020. The percentage area of sensitive habitats with exceedance of critical loads for acidity in the UK was predicted to decrease by 1% with the implementation of the MARPOL convention.     

A multi-component data assimilation experiment directed to sulphur dioxide and sulphate over Europe

Fine particulate matter (PM) is relevant for human health and its components are associated with climate effects. The performance of chemistry transport models for PM, its components and precursor gases is relatively poor. The use of these models to assess the state of the atmosphere can be strengthened using data assimilation. This study focuses on simultaneous assimilation of sulphate and its precursor gas sulphur dioxide into the regional chemistry transport model LOTOS–EUROS using an ensemble Kalman filter. The process of going from a single component setup for SO₂ or SO₄ to an experiment in which both components are assimilated simultaneously is illustrated. In these experiments, solely emissions, or a combination of emissions and the conversion rates between SO₂ and SO₄ were considered uncertain. In general, the use of sequential data assimilation for the estimation of the sulphur dioxide and sulphate distribution over Europe is shown to be beneficial. However, the single component experiments gave contradicting results in direction in which the emissions are adjusted by the filter showing the limitations of such applications. The estimates of the pollutant concentrations in a multi-component assimilation have found to be more realistic. We discuss the behavior of the assimilation system for this application. The model uncertainty definition is shown to be a critical parameter. The increased complexity associated with the simultaneous assimilation of strongly related species requires a very careful specification of the experiment, which will be the main challenge in the future data assimilation applications.     

The effect of variable sub-grid deposition factors on the results of the lagrangian long-range transport model of EMEP

The EMEP/MSC-W routine model for long-range atmospheric transport of sulphur and nitrogen includes a correction for the unresolved sub-grid-scale deposition in emission grid-squares. A constant fraction of the emissions is assumed to be directly deposited inside the first grid-square. Experiments have been performed to estimate the effects of using factors which vary with emission height and meteorological conditions. Results indicate that the constant local deposition factor used for sulphur dioxide in the routine model, is an overestimate, in particular for high-level emission sources. The change in annual deposition caused by the new local deposition factor for sulphur dioxide, is most clearly seen as a decreased deposition in the grid-squares with the largest emissions such as due for the former German Democratic Republic. The amount of this decrease strongly depends on the source height distribution. With the presently available emission data, a decrease of maximum 36% can be expected in individual grid squares. In grid-squares dominated by transboundary deposition, the increase is typically lower than 10%.     

Norway spruce needles as bioindicator of air pollution in the area of influence of the Sostanj Thermal Power Plant, Slovenia

This paper reports the results of total sulphur content, photosynthetic pigments, ascorbic acid (vitamin C) and alpha-tocopherol (vitamin E) analysed in current-year needles of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) in the area influenced by sulphur emissions from the Sostanj Thermal Power Plant (STPP), Slovenia, in the period 1991-2004. Ten differently polluted sampling sites in the emission area of STPP were selected. After desulphurization of emission gases from STPP total sulphur content in needles decreased and vitality parameters of needles increased. Moreover, a strong correlation between the average annual emissions of SO(2) from STPP and average annual sulphur content (increase) or average annual chlorophyll content (decrease) in current-year needles was found. The results showed that spruce needles may be an useful bioindicator for detecting changes in the emission rates of SO(2).     

Sulphur isotopic investigation of a polluted raised bog and the uptake of pollutant sulphur by Sphagnum

The sulphur content and sulphur isotopic composition of Sphagnum as well as anionic compositions and sulphur isotope ratios of rainwater inputs and bog waters have been measured at Thorne Moors, a raised bog in eastern England. Rainwater sulphate isotopic composition shows the sulphur input at this site to be dominated by anthropogenic pollution from fossil fuel burning. Strong depletion of sulphate (low SO4(2-)/Cl-) and enrichment in 34S in sulphate occurs at depth in the bog porewaters due to bacterial sulphate reduction. Some surface waters have low SO4(2-)/Cl-) and are 34S enriched due to removal of sulphate by downward diffusion into a sulphate-reducing zone. Other sites have high SO4(2-)/Cl-) which appears to result from oxidation of organically bound sulphur in the peat. Sulphur is present in Sphagnum at around 0.2% by weight and is depleted by 0 to -9 per thousand in the heavier 34S isotope compared to sulphate. Comparison with similar data from pristine coastal sites shows that sulphur incorporation into Sphagnum is enhanced in the polluted site (as Sphagnum sulphur concentrations are higher at lower total sulphur inputs) and that sulphur incorporation is accompanied by a smaller isotopic shift than in the pristine sites. The data support a model of preferential incorporation of partially reduced sulphur species (probably HSO3-) into Sphagnum. In pristine sites these are only available as oxidation products of sulphide formed by sulphate reduction and are 32S depleted. In polluted sites this source is augmented by sulphur(IV) species in atmospheric inputs and the resultant mixture is less depleted in 32S. Thus, in the polluted sites more HSO3- is available for uptake and the isotopic shift between Sphagnum and aqueous sulphur species is smaller.     

Monitoring the impact of sulphur with the Austrian Bioindicator Grid

In Austria, the impact of sulphur has been assessed since 1985 with the help of the Austrian Bioindicator Grid on 760 sample plots with Picea abies as the main tree species (90%). The annual sampling allows a precise evaluation of the temporal and regional development of the impact of sulphur on the basis of legal standards. Despite the reduction of SO2 emissions in Austria, the legal standard is still exceeded on 8% of the plots. These plots are mainly located near large Austrian emittors, but also in areas affected by transboundary sulphur emissions from neighbouring countries. The present paper describes how the Bioindicator Grid can be applied for the control of legal requirements to enact effective clean air measures in Austria and take supportive measures that reduce the impact of sulphur from emittors in neighbouring countries.     

Evidence of sulphur and nitrogen deposition signals at the United Kingdom Acid Waters Monitoring Network sites

Some recent studies of trends in sulphate in surface waters have alluded to possible lag effects imposed by catchment soils, resulting in discrepancies between trends in deposition and run-off. To assess the extent of these possible effects in the UK, sulphate concentration data from the United Kingdom Acid Waters Monitoring Network (AWMN) sites are compared with estimates of sulphur deposition at each site. From these data, input-output budgets are computed at an annual time scale. The estimated budgets suggest a close association between catchment sulphur inputs and outputs at an annual scale, with well-balanced annual budgets at most sites, indicative of only minor lag effects. A similar analysis of the AWMN site nitrogen budget shows little evidence of an association between nitrogen inputs and outputs at this time scale.     

Spectrophotometric determination of sulphur dioxide

Sulphur dioxide, an important industrial gas and air pollutant, is usually estimated using mercury salts. The authors have developed a method in which hazardous mercury salts are avoided. Sulphur dioxide is trapped in aqueous morpholine and mixed with the excess of dichromate solution in acidic medium. The hexavalent chromium in dichromate is reduced to trivalent chromium by sulphur dioxide and the excess of hexavalent chromium is determined with diphenylcarbazide which yields a soluble red-violet complex with an absorption maximum at 540 nm. The decrease in the absorbance values of the red-violet complex formed after reduction, when compared to that of a reagent control, is proportional to the concentration of sulphur dioxide used for reduction. Beer's law operates between 0.4 and 4 microg ml(-1) concentration of sulphur dioxide in solution.     

Source apportionment of particulate matter (PM2.5) in an urban area using dispersion,receptor and inverse modelling

Air pollution emission inventories are the basis for air quality assessment and management strategies. The quality of the inventories is of great importance since these data are essential for air pollution impact assessments using dispersion models. In this study, the quality of the emission inventory for fine particulates (PM_2.5) is assessed: first, using the calculated source contributions from a receptor model; second, using source apportionment from a dispersion model; and third, by applying a simple inverse modelling technique which utilises multiple linear regression of the dispersion model source contributions together with the observed PM_2.5 concentrations. For the receptor modelling the chemical composition of PM_2.5 filter samples from a measurement campaign performed between January 2004 and April 2005 are analysed. Positive matrix factorisation is applied as the receptor model to detect and quantify the various source contributions. For the same observational period and site, dispersion model calculations using the Air Quality Management system, AirQUIS, are performed. The results identify significant differences between the dispersion and receptor model source apportionment, particularly for wood burning and traffic induced suspension. For wood burning the receptor model calculations are lower, by a factor of 0.54, but for the traffic induced suspension they are higher, by a factor of 7.1. Inverse modelling, based on regression of the dispersion model source contributions and the PM_2.5 concentrations, indicates similar discrepancies in the emissions inventory. In order to assess if the differences found at the one site are generally applicable throughout Oslo, the individual source category emissions are rescaled according to the receptor modelling results. These adjusted PM_2.5 concentrations are compared with measurements at four independent stations to evaluate the updated inventory. Statistical analysis shows improvement in the estimated concentrations for PM_2.5 at all sites. Similarly, inverse modelling is applied at these independent sites and this confirms the validity of the receptor model results.     

Assessing the suitability of Norway spruce wood as an environmental archive for sulphur

The aim of this study was to assess the suitability of Norway spruces (Picea abies L. Karst.) as an environmental archive for sulphur. For this purpose spruce trees were sampled in two distinct regions of Switzerland: the Alps and the Swiss Plateau, which differ significantly with respect to S immission. Wood samples were measured using two methods: LASER Ablation high resolution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-HR-ICP-MS) and inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES) after acid digestion. Independently corroborated by previous measurements of sulphur in peat bogs, the rise and fall of sulphur dioxide pollution in Switzerland appears to be reflected in spruce wood sulphur content. While the wood sulphur content profile of trees sampled in the Alps is relatively flat, the profiles of trees located on the Swiss Plateau display a characteristic sulphur peak. This corresponds to air pollution data in the different regions and indicates that the trees reacted on the changing S supply and recorded a pollution signal in the wood.     

The atmospheric chemistry of sulphur and nitrogen in power station plumes

Emissions of sulphur and nitrogen compounds from power stations represent a significant fraction of the total emissions of these elements to the atmosphere. Understanding their subsequent chemical reactions in the atmosphere is of fundamental importance as without it, a quantitative assessment of their contribution to local and regional scale air pollution is not possible. Here the atmospheric chemistry of sulphur dioxide and the oxides of nitrogen, and their resultant likely behaviour in the plumes of power stations are reviewed.     

The contribution of ship emissions to air pollution in the North Sea regions

As a consequence of the global distribution of manufacturing sites and the increasing international division of labour, ship traffic is steadily increasing and is becoming more and more important as an origin of air pollution.This study investigates the impact of ship emissions in coastal areas of the North Sea under conditions of the year 2000 by means of a regional chemistry transport model which runs on a sufficiently high resolution to study air pollution in coastal regions. It was found that northern Germany and Denmark in summer suffer from more than 50% higher sulphate, nitrate and ammonium aerosol concentrations due to contributions from ships. The implementation of a sulphur emission control area (SECA) in the North Sea, as it was implemented at the end of 2007, directly results in reduced sulphur dioxide and sulphate aerosol concentrations while nitrate aerosol concentrations are slightly increased.     

A pragmatic approach for estimation of source-zone emissions at LNAPL contaminated sites

When considering natural attenuation as a remediation strategy at a site contaminated by a light non-aqueous phase liquid (LNAPL), it is important to consider the emission of contaminants from the source zone. A quantification of source-zone emissions is essential both for comparison with down-gradient mass fluxes to provide an estimate of fractional mass flux reduction, as well as for estimating the source lifetime. Because the spatial distribution of LNAPL at a field site is strongly dependent on both the spill circumstances and the heterogeneity of the geologic materials, which can be problematic for in-situ determination, alternative methods for estimating source-zone emissions are needed. In this work, a three-dimensional multiphase flow and transport modelling approach is used to investigate the relationship between the lateral extent of an LNAPL body and the emission of contaminants to groundwater at a contaminated site. For simulations involving an LNAPL release in an aquifer comprised of heterogeneous porosity and permeability distributions that were generated geostatistically, it is shown that a simple linear relationship exists between the lateral extent of the LNAPL body in the capillary fringe and the emission to the aqueous phase. The parameters describing the relationship are found to be linear functions of the groundwater flow velocity and the vertical infiltration rate. This site-specific relationship provides a simple method to estimate contaminant emissions to groundwater at LNAPL contaminated sites.     

Regional modelling of anthropogenic sulphur in Southeast Asia

A co-operative research project between the Malaysian Meteorological Service (MMS) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) focussing on the usage of an atmospheric transport and chemistry model, has just been initiated. Here, we describe the main features of the dispersion model and discuss a first set of calculations in light of available measurements of sulphuric species in Southeast Asia. According to our results, anthropogenic sulphur concentrations and depositions are particularly high near the large cities of the region, around a metal smelter in the southern Philippines, and in a region extending from northern Vietnam into southeastern China. These areas coincide with the high-emissions regions of Southeast Asia and we tentatively conclude that regional transport of acidifying species is not as far-reaching as in the mid-latitudes. From our calculations, and from supporting measurements we conclude that most of rural Southeast Asia is not yet severely affected by anthropogenic sulphur, but given the rapid rate of economical development in this region the situation may deteriorate quickly. Areas that are particularly at risk include the large cities, northern Vietnam, most of central Thailand, most of peninsular Malaysia, eastern Sumatra and parts of Java, all of which receive total-sulphur depositions in excess of 0.5 g S m⁻² yr⁻¹. Our model simulates sulphate in precipitation in accordance with measurements, but it has a tendency to overestimate atmospheric SO₂. It remains to be investigated whether this is a problem in the model formulation or a result of unrepresentative sampling. An immediate continuation of this study should be performed with higher spatial resolution than the currently used 100×100 km². Other imperfections in this model study, which should be addressed in future work, include parameterised vertical transport in deep convective clouds, the influence of natural emissions (primarily from volcanoes) on the concentration and deposition of sulphuric species, and the year-to-year variability of the driving meteorological conditions.     

Lichen response to changes in atmospheric sulphur: isotopic evidence.

In June of 1997, several thalli of the lichen species Alectoria sarmentosa were transplanted from a remote area (Bonavista) to an urban area (St John's) on the island of Newfoundland, Canada. The purpose was to assess the response of these epiphytic lichens to a change in the level of atmospheric sulphur pollution as measured by sulphur concentration and isotopic composition. The dominant source of atmospheric sulphur in the Bonavista area is sea spray, therefore, lichens growing there have relatively high sulphur isotopic compositions and low concentrations (approximately + 15 per/thousand, 250 ppm). Atmospheric sulphur in the St John's area is dominated by anthropogenic sources, primarily oil burning. Lichens in this area have lower isotopic compositions and higher concentrations (approximately + 6 per thousand, 500 ppm). The transplanted lichens were monitored monthly for a period of 1 year. In all experiments the sulphur isotopic composition decreased and the sulphur concentration increased linearly. It is estimated that, within 18 months, transplanted A. sarmentosa would be indistinguishable from the same species naturally growing in the transplant site, both in terms of sulphur concentration and isotopic composition.     

Scenarios of global anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and methane until 2030

We have used a global version of the Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model to estimate anthropogenic emissions of the air pollution precursors sulphur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), carbon monoxide (CO), primary carbonaceous particles of black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and methane (CH₄). We developed two scenarios to constrain the possible range of future emissions. As a baseline, we investigated the future emission levels that would result from the implementation of the already adopted emission control legislation in each country, based on the current national expectations of economic development. Alternatively, we explored the lowest emission levels that could be achieved with the most advanced emission control technologies that are on the market today. This paper describes data sources and our assumptions on activity data, emission factors and the penetration of pollution control measures. We estimate that, with current expectations on future economic development and with the present air quality legislation, global anthropogenic emissions of SO₂ and NO_x would slightly decrease between 2000 and 2030. For carbonaceous particles and CO, reductions between 20% and 35% are computed, while for CH₄ an increase of about 50% is calculated. Full application of currently available emission control technologies, however, could achieve substantially lower emissions levels, with decreases up to 30% for CH₄, 40% for CO and BC, and nearly 80% for SO₂.