Development of Tools for Integrated Monitoring and Assessment of Hazardous Substances and Their Biological Effects in the Baltic Sea

The need to develop biological effects monitoring to facilitate a reliable assessment of hazardous substances has been emphasized in the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission. An integrated chemical–biological approach is vitally important for the understanding and proper assessment of anthropogenic pressures and their effects on the Baltic Sea. Such an approach is also necessary for prudent management aiming at safeguarding the sustainable use of ecosystem goods and Services. The BEAST project (Biological Effects of Anthropogenic Chemical Stress: Tools for the Assessment of Ecosystem Health) set out to address this topic within the BONUS Programme. BEAST generated a large amount of quality-assured data on several biological effects parameters (biomarkers) in various marine species in different sub-regions of the Baltic Sea. New indicators (biological response measurement methods) and management tools (integrated indices) with regard to the integrated monitoring approach were suggested.     

Biogeochemical Control of the Coupled CO2–O2 System of the Baltic Sea: A Review of the Results of Baltic-C

Past, present, and possible future changes in the Baltic Sea acid–base and oxygen balances were studied using different numerical experiments and a catchment–sea model system in several scenarios including business as usual, medium scenario, and the Baltic Sea Action Plan. New CO₂ partial pressure data provided guidance for improving the marine biogeochemical model. Continuous CO₂ and nutrient measurements with high temporal resolution helped disentangle the biogeochemical processes. These data and modeling indicate that traditional understandings of the nutrient availability–organic matter production relationship do not necessarily apply to the Baltic Sea. Modeling indicates that increased nutrient loads will not inhibit future Baltic Sea acidification; instead, increased mineralization and biological production will amplify the seasonal surface pH cycle. The direction and magnitude of future pH changes are mainly controlled by atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Apart from decreasing pH, we project a decreasing calcium carbonate saturation state and increasing hypoxic area.     

How will Ocean Acidification Affect Baltic Sea Ecosystems? An Assessment of Plausible Impacts on Key Functional Groups

Increasing partial pressure of atmospheric CO₂ is causing ocean pH to fall—a process known as ‘ocean acidification’. Scenario modeling suggests that ocean acidification in the Baltic Sea may cause a ≤3 times increase in acidity (reduction of 0.2–0.4 pH units) by the year 2100. The responses of most Baltic Sea organisms to ocean acidification are poorly understood. Available data suggest that most species and ecologically important groups in the Baltic Sea food web (phytoplankton, zooplankton, macrozoobenthos, cod and sprat) will be robust to the expected changes in pH. These conclusions come from (mostly) single-species and single-factor studies. Determining the emergent effects of ocean acidification on the ecosystem from such studies is problematic, yet very few studies have used multiple stressors and/or multiple trophic levels. There is an urgent need for more data from Baltic Sea populations, particularly from environmentally diverse regions and from controlled mesocosm experiments. In the absence of such information it is difficult to envision the likely effects of future ocean acidification on Baltic Sea species and ecosystems.     

Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management

We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960–2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.     

Zoobenthos as indicators of ecological status in coastal brackish waters: a comparative study from the Baltic Sea

A new method for classifying soft-bottom zoobenthic assemblages along the Finnish coasts (northern Baltic Sea) is presented and tested against traditional physicochemical monitoring data in the complex Archipelago Sea. Although multivariate methods for assessing the state of the marine environment have become widely used, few numerical indices can operate over a wide salinity range. We compare indices currently in use and propose a new index, BBI (brackish water benthic index), for the low-saline and species-poor Baltic coastal waters. BBI offers a salinity-corrected tool for classification of the soft-bottom zoobenthos under the demands of the European Union Water Framework Directive.     

Climate change effects on the Baltic Sea borderland between land and sea

Coastal habitats are situated on the border between land and sea, and ecosystem structure and functioning is influenced by both marine and terrestrial processes. Despite this, most scientific studies and monitoring are conducted either with a terrestrial or an aquatic focus. To address issues concerning climate change impacts in coastal areas, a cross-ecosystem approach is necessary. Since habitats along the Baltic coastlines vary in hydrology, natural geography, and ecology, climate change projections for Baltic shore ecosystems are bound to be highly speculative. Societal responses to climate change in the Baltic coastal ecosystems should have an ecosystem approach and match the biophysical realities of the Baltic Sea area. Knowledge about ecosystem processes and their responses to a changing climate should be integrated within the decision process, both locally and nationally, in order to increase the awareness of, and to prepare for climate change impacts in coastal areas of the Baltic Sea.     

Arsenic in sediments from the southeastern Baltic Sea

Arsenic occurs as a persistent constituent in many of the chemical weapons dumped into the Baltic Sea; it can be used as an indicator of leakage and dispersal of released munitions to the marine environment. Total arsenic was analysed in sediment samples taken from the Lithuanian economic zone in the Baltic Sea, which included samples from the chemical munitions dumpsite in the Gotland Basin and national monitoring stations in the southeastern Baltic Sea. Arsenic concentrations in sediments ranged from 1.1 to 19.0 mg kg(-1), with an average of 3.4 mg kg(-1). Although there was evidence of slightly elevated arsenic content in sediments near the weapons dumpsite, arsenic concentrations were nevertheless quite low relative to other investigations in the Baltic and North Seas.     

The Costs of Meeting the Environmental Objectives for the Baltic Sea: A Review of the Literature

The environmental targets of the recently agreed Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) targets are likely associated with a considerable cost, which motivates a search for low-cost policies. The following review shows there is a substantial literature on cost-efficient nutrient reduction strategies, including suggestions regarding low-cost abatement, but actual policies at international and national scale tend to be considerably more expensive due to lack of instruments that ensure a cost-efficient allocation of abatement across countries and sectors. Economic research on the costs of reducing hazardous substances and oil spill damages in the Baltic Sea is not available, but lessons from the international literature suggest that resources could be used more efficiently if appropriate analysis is undertaken. Common to these pollution problems is the need to ensure that all countries in the region are provided with positive incentives to implement international agreements.     

Past,current and future Swedish freshwater monitoring from an authority perspective

The synthesis of the BONUS+ research is introduced. The HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan is examined as a case to illustrate the potentials and challenges in building the science–policymaking interface on a macroregional level. The projects address environmental challenges in the Baltic Sea as defined by the Baltic Sea Action Plan, or consider the environmental governance and decision making within the Baltic Sea context in general. Eutrophication, biodiversity, hazardous substances, maritime activities, and the environment governance are addressed, as are crosscutting issues, such as the impact of climate change, maritime spatial planning and impacts of future development on ecosystem services. The projects contributed to relevant policy developments: 37 consultations carried out at EU level, 49 modifications to policy documents and action plans, 153 suggestions for the efficacy of pertinent public policies and governance, and in 570 occasions, scientists working in BONUS+ projects served as members or observers in scientific and stakeholder committees.     

The Potential of Current- and Wind-Driven Transport for Environmental Management of the Baltic Sea

The ever increasing impact of the marine industry and transport on vulnerable sea areas puts the marine environment under exceptional pressure and calls for inspired methods for mitigating the impact of the related risks. We describe a method for preventive reduction of remote environmental risks caused by the shipping and maritime industry that are transported by surface currents and wind impact to the coasts. This method is based on characterizing systematically the damaging potential of the offshore areas in terms of potential transport to vulnerable regions of an oil spill or other pollution that has occurred in a particular area. The resulting maps of probabilities of pollution to be transported to the nearshore and the time it takes for the pollution to reach the nearshore are used to design environmentally optimized fairways for the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Proper, and south-western Baltic Sea.     

Saving the Baltic Sea,the Inland Waters of Its Drainage Basin,or Both? Spatial Perspectives on Reducing P-Loads in Eastern Sweden

Nutrient loads from inland sources to the Baltic Sea and adjacent inland waters need to be reduced in order to prevent eutrophication and meet requirements of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). We here investigate the spatial implications of using different possible criteria for reducing water-borne phosphorous (P) loads in the Northern Baltic Sea River Basin District (NBS-RBD) in Sweden. Results show that most catchments that have a high degree of internal eutrophication do not express high export of P from their outlets. Furthermore, due to lake retention, lake catchments with high P-loads per agricultural area (which is potentially of concern for the WFD) did not considerably contribute to the P-loading of the Baltic Sea. Spatially uniform water quality goals may, therefore, not be effective in NBS-RBD, emphasizing more generally the need for regional adaptation of WFD and BSAP-related goals.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0523-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Application of a novel modeling tool with multistressor functionality to support management of organic contaminants in the Baltic Sea

Organic contaminants constitute one of many stressors that deteriorate the ecological status of the Baltic Sea. When managing environmental problems in this marine environment, it may be necessary to consider the interactions between various stressors to ensure that averting one problem does not exacerbate another. A novel modeling tool, BALTSEM-POP, is presented here that simulates interactions between climate forcing, hydrodynamic conditions, and water exchange, biogeochemical cycling, and organic contaminant transport and fate in the Baltic Sea. We discuss opportunities to use the model to support different aspects of chemicals management. We exemplify these opportunities with a case study where two emission-reduction strategies for a chemical used in personal care products (decamethylcyclopentasiloxane) are evaluated, and where the confounding influence of future climate change and eutrophication on the impact of the emission-reduction strategies are assessed.     

Concentrations and profiles of PCDD/Fs in sediments of major Polish rivers and the Gdansk Basin--Baltic Sea

The present state of contamination of bottom sediments in southern part of the Baltic Sea with PCDD/Fs was compared to the findings made for the north-western and eastern Baltic Sea coastal areas of Finland, Sweden and Denmark. The extent of the study area--from marine the Gdańsk Basin, the lower Oder and Vistula Rivers up till W?oc?awek reservoir--allowed to obtain the sediment samples with diversified properties. Dioxin's concentrations in sediments examined in the Polish costal area allows us to evaluate this zone as relatively less contaminated. Higher dioxin concentration has been found in Wloclawek Dam Reservoir. Differences in congener patterns and temporal changes in marine sediment profiles were examined. The highest concentrations of tetra- and penta-congeners still remain in the surface layer of Gdansk Deep, whereas the decline in concentrations of these most toxic congeners, have been observed in the sediments from some other parts of the Baltic coast. Excess concentration of dioxins in sediments has a great impact on human being due to special ability of accumulation in the trophic chain as well as in water (fishes) and land (milk, meat).     

Echoes from the Past: A Healthy Baltic Sea Requires More Effort

Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural changes over the past 6000 years in the Baltic Sea ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems of the Baltic Sea. Integrated modeling and sediment proxy studies reveal increased sea surface temperatures and expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier natural warm climate phases, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios of global warming, there is likely no improvement of bottom water conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, the measures already designed to produce a healthier Baltic Sea are insufficient in the long term. The interactions between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the Baltic Sea should be considered in management, implementation of policy strategies in the Baltic Sea environmental issues, and adaptation to future climate change.     

A multi media load model for the Baltic Sea

The background of this work is the international decision process with regard to the selection of chemicals to be assessed with priority. In order to stress the precautionary principle, mass flows were analysed rather than concentrations, threshold values, etc., as preferred by the chemical legislation (which still excludes the marine area). Lindane, hexachlorobenzene (HCB), trichloroacetic acid and its sodium salt, medium-chained chlorinated paraffins and tributyltin (TBT) were selected due to their great relevance for the marine area. Trichloroacetic acid is an interesting model compound on account of its accidental formation by degradation of volatile chlorinated hydrocarbons and during chlorination processes. In addition, a hypothetical compound was modelled, representing a highly water-soluble substance with low vapour pressure. The balancing area is the Baltic Sea and its catchment area. In order to model the substance flows, the 'Input/Output-load model' has been developed. The model quantifies the shift and the distribution of a yearly load of the substance investigated from the terrestrial-limnic into the marine compartment (Baltic Sea). Water-soluble substances, which are usually considered to be of no concern, may enter the sea in great amounts and, if not degradable, remain there. It turned out to be necessary to take into account remobilisation, unintended formation and point as well as line-sources.     

The potential future contribution of shipping to acidification of the Baltic Sea

International regulation of the emission of acidic sulphur and nitrogen oxides from commercial shipping has focused on the risks to human health, with little attention paid to the consequences for the marine environment. The introduction of stricter regulations in northern Europe has led to substantial investment in scrubbers that absorb the sulphur oxides in a counterflow of seawater. This paper examines the consequences of smokestack and scrubber release of acidic oxides in the Baltic Sea according to a range of scenarios for the coming decades. While shipping is projected to become a major source of strong acid deposition to the Baltic Sea by 2050, the long-term effect on the pH and alkalinity is projected to be significantly smaller than estimated from previous scoping studies. A significant contribution to this difference is the efficient export of surface water acidification to the North Sea on a timescale of 15–20 years.     

The Future of Baltic Sea Populations: Local Extinction or Evolutionary Rescue?

Environmental change challenges local and global survival of populations and species. In a species-poor environment like the Baltic Sea this is particularly critical as major ecosystem functions may be upheld by single species. A complex interplay between demographic and genetic characteristics of species and populations determines risks of local extinction, chances of re-establishment of lost populations, and tolerance to environmental changes by evolution of new adaptations. Recent studies show that Baltic populations of dominant marine species are locally adapted, have lost genetic variation and are relatively isolated. In addition, some have evolved unusually high degrees of clonality and others are representatives of endemic (unique) evolutionary lineages. We here suggest that a consequence of local adaptation, isolation and genetic endemism is an increased risk of failure in restoring extinct Baltic populations. Additionally, restricted availability of genetic variation owing to lost variation and isolation may negatively impact the potential for evolutionary rescue following environmental change.     

Dioxin concentrations in sediments of the Baltic Sea--a survey of existing data

Recent survey results for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs, dioxins) in Baltic Sea sediments from Finland, Sweden and Denmark were merged with previously published Baltic Sea data. Regional distribution of concentration levels, differences in congener patterns, and temporal changes in sediment profiles were examined. One of the main objectives was to study if any major point sources for different PCDD/F congeners could be identified on a regional scale, based on sediment records. The survey confirmed the impact of chlorophenol production derived highly chlorinated PCDF-congeners on the total toxicity in sediments in the Gulf of Finland near the Kymijoki river estuary. Signatures of other point sources or combined point sources pertinent to specific industry branches or particular production processes (such as pulp bleaching, vinyl chloride production, thermal processes) may be discerned. However, the findings did not support any of the known point sources significantly influencing those congeners that are most abundant in Baltic herring and salmon. Instead, regional distributions in the Baltic Sea indicate that atmospheric deposition may act as a major source for those congeners and especially for 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF. There were clear indications of declines in levels in sediment in some areas, but generally the levels of highly chlorinated PCDD/Fs on the northern coast of the Gulf of Finland were still high when compared with other areas of the Baltic Sea. Major areas with data gaps cover the south-eastern and eastern coastal regions of the Baltic Proper and the southern Gulf of Finland.     

Microbial metagenomics in the Baltic Sea: Recent advancements and prospects for environmental monitoring

Metagenomics refers to the analysis of DNA from a whole community. Metagenomic sequencing of environmental DNA has greatly improved our knowledge of the identity and function of microorganisms in aquatic, terrestrial, and human biomes. Although open oceans have been the primary focus of studies on aquatic microbes, coastal and brackish ecosystems are now being surveyed. Here, we review so far published studies on microbes in the Baltic Sea, one of the world’s largest brackish water bodies, using high throughput sequencing of environmental DNA and RNA. Collectively the data illustrate that Baltic Sea microbes are unique and highly diverse, and well adapted to this brackish-water ecosystem, findings that represent a novel base-line knowledge necessary for monitoring purposes and a sustainable management. More specifically, the data relate to environmental drivers for microbial community composition and function, assessments of the microbial biodiversity, adaptations and role of microbes in the nitrogen cycle, and microbial genome assembly from metagenomic sequences. With these discoveries as background, prospects of using metagenomics for Baltic Sea environmental monitoring are discussed.     

Baltic Sea hazardous substances management: results and challenges

The introduction into the Baltic Sea of hazardous substances that are persistent, bioaccumulate, and are toxic is an important environmental and human health problem. Multilateral efforts to address this problem have primarily been taken under the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM). This article examines past HELCOM efforts on hazardous substances, and discusses future challenges regarding their management. The article finds that past actions on hazardous substances have had a positive effect on improving Baltic environmental quality and reducing human health risks, although there are remaining issues and difficulties that need to be addressed. In particular, four related future challenges for HELCOM management of hazardous substances are identified and discussed: i) the need to engender further implementation and building public and private sector capacities; ii) the need to improve data availability, quality and comparability across the region and international fora; iii) the need to strengthen existing regulations and incorporate new issues; and iv) the need to effectively coordinate HELCOM activities with efforts on hazardous substances in other international fora.