A Simple Neural Network for Estimating Emission Rates of Hydrogen Sulfide and Ammonia from Single Point Sources

Abstract

Neural networks have shown tremendous promise in modeling complex problems. This work describes the development and validation of a neural network for the purpose of estimating point source emission rates of hazardous gases. This neural network approach has been developed and tested using experimental data obtained for two specific air pollutants of concern in West Texas, hydrogen sulfide and ammonia. The prediction of the network is within 20% of the measured emission rates for these two gases at distances of less than 50 m. The emission rate estimations for ground level releases were derived as a function of seven variables: downwind distance, crosswind distance, wind speed, downwind concentration, atmospheric stability, ambient temperature, and relative humidity. A backpropagation algorithm was used to develop the neural network and is also discussed here. The experimental data were collected at the Wind Engineering Research Field Site located at Texas Tech University in Lubbock, Texas. Based on the results of this study, the use of neural networks provides an attractive and highly effective tool to model atmospheric dispersion, in which a large number of variables interact in a nonlinear manner.     

Neural Network and Multiple Regression Models for PM10 Prediction in Athens: A Comparative Assessment

Abstract

Particulate atmospheric pollution in urban areas is considered to have significant impact on human health. Therefore, the ability to make accurate predictions of particulate ambient concentrations is important to improve public awareness and air quality management. This study examines the possibility of using neural network methods as tools for daily average particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <10 µm (PM₁₀) concentration forecasting, providing an alternative to statistical models widely used up to this day. Based on a data inventory, in a fixed central site in Athens, Greece, ranging over a two-year period, and using mainly meteorological variables as inputs, neural network models and multiple linear regression models were developed and evaluated. Comparison statistics used indicate that the neural network approach has an edge over regression models, expressed both in terms of prediction error (root mean square error values lower by 8.2–9.4%) and of episodic prediction ability (false alarm rate values lower by 7–13%). The results demonstrate that artificial neural networks (ANNs), if properly trained and formed, can provide adequate solutions to particulate pollution prognostic demands.     

Prediction of Ambient PM10 and Toxic Metals Using Artificial Neural Networks

Abstract

In this study, an artificial neural network is employed to predict the concentration of ambient respirable particu-late matter (PM₁₀) and toxic metals observed in the city of Jaipur, India. A feed-forward network with a back-propagation learning algorithm is used to train the neural network the behavior of the data patterns. The meteorological variables of wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, temperature, and time are taken as input to the network. The results indicate that the network is able to predict concentrations of PM₁₀ and toxic metals quite accurately.     

Neural networks and periodic components used in air quality forecasting

Forecasting of air quality parameters is one topic of air quality research today due to the health effects caused by airborne pollutants in urban areas. The work presented here aims at comparing two principally different neural network methods that have been considered as potential tools in that area and assessing them in relation to regression with periodic components. Self-organizing maps (SOM) represent a form of competitive learning in which a neural network learns the structure of the data. Multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) have been shown to be able to learn complex relationships between input and output variables. In addition, the effect of removing periodic components is evaluated with respect to neural networks. The methods were evaluated using hourly time series of NO₂ and basic meteorological variables collected in the city of Stockholm in 1994–1998. The estimated values for forecasting were calculated in three ways: using the periodic components alone, applying neural network methods to the residual values after removing the periodic components, and applying only neural networks to the original data. The results showed that the best forecast estimates can be achieved by directly applying a MLP network to the original data, and thus, that a combination of the periodic regression method and neural algorithms does not give any advantage over a direct application of neural algorithms.     

APCA Honors Six Individuals and Three Sections In 1987 Awards Program

Abstract

A growing interest in security and occupant exposure to contaminants revealed a need for fast and reliable identification of contaminant sources during incidental situations. To determine potential contaminant source positions in outdoor environments, current state-of-the-art modeling methods use computational ?uid dynamic simulations on parallel processors. In indoor environments, current tools match accidental contaminant distributions with cases from precomputed databases of possible concentration distributions. These methods require intensive computations in pre- and postprocessing. On the other hand, neural networks emerged as a tool for rapid concentration forecasting of outdoor environmental contaminants such as nitrogen oxides or sulfur dioxide. All of these modeling methods depend on the type of sensors used for real-time measurements of contaminant concentrations. A review of the existing sensor technologies revealed that no perfect sensor exists, but intensity of work in this area provides promising results in the near future. The main goal of the presented research study was to extend neural network modeling from the outdoor to the indoor identification of source positions, making this technology applicable to building indoor environments. The developed neural network Locator of Contaminant Sources was also used to optimize number and allocation of contaminant concentration sensors for real-time prediction of indoor contaminant source positions. Such prediction should take place within seconds after receiving real-time contaminant concentration sensor data. For the purpose of neural network training, a multizone program provided distributions of contaminant concentrations for known source positions throughout a test building. Trained networks had an output indicating contaminant source positions based on measured concentrations in different building zones. A validation case based on a real building layout and experimental data demonstrated the ability of this method to identify contaminant source positions. Future research intentions are focused on integration with real sensor networks and model improvements for much more complicated contamination scenarios.     

Two-days ahead prediction of daily maximum concentrations of SO2, O3, PM10, NO2, CO in the urban area of Palermo,Italy

Artificial neural networks are functional alternative techniques in modelling the intricate vehicular exhaust emission dispersion phenomenon. Pollutant predictions are notoriously complex when using either deterministic or stochastic models, which explains why this model was developed using a neural network. Neural networks have the ability to learn about non-linear relationships between the used variables. In this paper a recurrent neural network (Elman model) based forecaster for the prediction of daily maximum concentrations of SO₂, O₃, PM10, NO₂, CO in the city of Palermo is proposed. The effectiveness of the presented forecaster was tested using a time series recorded between 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2004 in eight monitoring stations in urban area of Palermo (Italy). Experimental trials show that the developed and tuned model is appropriate, giving small values of root mean square error (RMSE) , mean absolute error (MAE) and mean square error (MSE). In addition, the related correlation coefficient ranges from 0.72 to 0.97 for each forecasted pollutant, underlying a small difference between the forecasted and the measured values. The above results make the proposed forecaster a powerful tool for pollution management systems.     

An Intelligent Emissions Controller for Fuel Lean Gas Reburn in Coal-Fired Power Plants

ABSTRACT

The application of artificial intelligence techniques for performance optimization of the fuel lean gas reburn (FLGR) system is investigated. A multilayer, feedforward artificial neural network is applied to model static nonlinear relationships between the distribution of injected natural gas into the upper region of the furnace of a coal-fired boiler and the corresponding oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) emissions exiting the furnace. Based on this model, optimal distributions of injected gas are determined such that the largest NO_x reduction is achieved for each value of total injected gas. This optimization is accomplished through the development of a new optimization method based on neural networks. This new optimal control algorithm, which can be used as an alternative generic tool for solving multidimensional nonlinear constrained optimization problems, is described and its results are successfully validated against an off-the-shelf tool for solving mathematical programming problems. Encouraging results obtained using plant data from one of Commonwealth Edison's coal-fired electric power plants demonstrate the feasibility of the overall approach.

Preliminary results show that the use of this intelligent controller will also enable the determination of the most cost-effective operating conditions of the FLGR system by considering, along with the optimal distribution of the injected gas, the cost differential between natural gas and coal and the open-market price of NO_x emission credits. Further study, however, is necessary, including the construction of a more comprehensive database, needed to develop high-fidelity process models and to add carbon monoxide (CO) emissions to the model of the gas reburn system.     

U.S. National PM2.5 Chemical Speciation Monitoring Networks—CSN and IMPROVE: Description of networks

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) initiated the national PM_2.5 Chemical Speciation Monitoring Network (CSN) in 2000 to support evaluation of long-term trends and to better quantify the impact of sources on particulate matter (PM) concentrations in the size range below 2.5 μm aerodynamic diameter (PM_2.5; fine particles). The network peaked at more than 260 sites in 2005. In response to the 1999 Regional Haze Rule and the need to better understand the regional transport of PM, EPA also augmented the long-existing Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) visibility monitoring network in 2000, adding nearly 100 additional IMPROVE sites in rural Class 1 Areas across the country. Both networks measure the major chemical components of PM_2.5 using historically accepted filter-based methods. Components measured by both networks include major anions, carbonaceous material, and a series of trace elements. CSN also measures ammonium and other cations directly, whereas IMPROVE estimates ammonium assuming complete neutralization of the measured sulfate and nitrate. IMPROVE also measures chloride and nitrite. In general, the field and laboratory approaches used in the two networks are similar; however, there are numerous, often subtle differences in sampling and chemical analysis methods, shipping, and quality control practices. These could potentially affect merging the two data sets when used to understand better the impact of sources on PM concentrations and the regional nature and long-range transport of PM_2.5. This paper describes, for the first time in the peer-reviewed literature, these networks as they have existed since 2000, outlines differences in field and laboratory approaches, provides a summary of the analytical parameters that address data uncertainty, and summarizes major network changes since the inception of CSN.

ImplicationsTwo long-term chemical speciation particle monitoring networks have operated simultaneously in the United States since 2001, when the EPA began regular operations of its PM_2.5 Chemical Speciation Monitoring Network (IMPROVE began in 1988). These networks use similar field sampling and analytical methods, but there are numerous, often subtle differences in equipment and methodologies that can affect the results. This paper describes these networks since 2000 (inception of CSN) and their differences, and summarizes the analytical parameters that address data uncertainty, providing researchers and policymakers with background information they may need (e.g., for 2018 PM_2.5 designation and State Implementation Plan process; McCarthy, 2013) to assess results from each network and decide how these data sets can be mutually employed for enhanced analyses. Changes in CSN and IMPROVE that have occurred over the years also are described.     

A Pilot Indoor-Outdoor Study of Organic Particulate Matter and Particulate Mutagenicity

Abstract

Many large metropolitan areas experience elevated concentrations of ground-level ozone pollution during the summertime “smog season”. Local environmental or health agencies often need to make daily air pollution forecasts for public advisories and for input into decisions regarding abatement measures and air quality management. Such forecasts are usually based on statistical relationships between weather conditions and ambient air pollution concentrations. Multivariate linear regression models have been widely used for this purpose, and well-specified regressions can provide reasonable results. However, pollution-weather relationships are typically complex and nonlinear—especially for ozone—properties that might be better captured by neural networks. This study investigates the potential for using neural networks to forecast ozone pollution, as compared to traditional regression models. Multiple regression models and neural networks are examined for a range of cities under different climate and ozone regimes, enabling a comparative study of the two approaches. Model comparison statistics indicate that neural network techniques are somewhat (but not dramatically) better than regression models for daily ozone prediction, and that all types of models are sensitive to different weather-ozone regimes and the role of persistence in aiding predictions.     

Neural Network Model for Predicting Peak Photochemical Pollutant Levels

ABSTRACT

In this paper, an attempt is made for the 24-hr prediction of photochemical pollutant levels using a neural network model. For this purpose, a model is developed that relates peak pollutant concentrations to meteorological and emission variables and indexes. The analysis is based on measurements of O₃ and NO₂ from the city of Athens. The meteorological variables are selected to cover atmospheric processes that determine the fate of the airborne pollutants while special care is taken to ensure the availability of the required input data from routine observations or forecasts. The comparison between model predictions and actual observations shows a good agreement. In addition, a series of sensitivity tests is performed in order to evaluate the sensitivity of the model to the uncertainty in meteorological variables. Model forecasts are generally rather insensitive to small perturbations in most of the input meteorological data, while they are relatively more sensitive in changes in wind speed and direction.     

Weighted road density: A simple way of assigning traffic-related air pollution exposure

BackgroundExisting traffic variables used for predicting NO₂ in epidemiological studies are either difficult to acquire or explain only a small proportion of the variance. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a new predictor, weighted road density, which combines the maximum amount of information related to traffic into a single variable without the requirement of obtaining traffic counts for a given area.MethodTwo week NO₂ samples were collected using the readings of up to 32 passive samplers on 3 separate rounds between September and December 2006 and again in 2007. Several types of traffic related explanatory variables based on traffic counts, distance to main road and the proposed weighted road density were constructed using GIS software, and tested for association with the NO₂ samplers. Assessment of the best model was based on R² values, as well as leave-one-out cross validation.ResultsThe weighted road density variable and the density variable based on traffic counts resulted in a similar R² (0.59) for predicting NO₂, although weighted road density was much easier to construct and outperformed other variables such as distance to main road.ConclusionAs well as being a powerful predictor for use in a land use regression model, weighted road density can be used as a proxy for exposure to traffic-related pollution, for use in circumstances where direct measurements of pollutant levels are not feasible or are not required.     

Impacts of Meteorological Factors on PM10: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) Approaches

In this study, prediction capacities of multi-linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural networks (ANN) onto coarse particulate matter (PM₁₀) concentrations were investigated. Different meteorological factors on particulate pollution were chosen for operating variables in the model analyses. Two different regions (urban and industrial) were identified in the region of Kocaeli, Turkey. All data sets were obtained from air quality monitoring network of the Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning, and 120 data sets were used in the MLR and ANN models. Regression equations explained the effects of the meteorological factors in MLR analyses. In the ANN model, backpropagation network with two hidden layers has achieved the best prediction efficiency. Determination coefficients and error values were examined for each model. ANN models displayed more accurate results compared to MLR.     

Evaluating Environmental Parameters for Minimum Ammonium Losses during Composting of Trimming Residues

Abstract

A neural fuzzy system was used to investigate the influence of environmental variables (time, aeration, moisture, and particle size) on composting parameters (pH, organic matter [OM], nitrogen [N], ammonium nitrogen [NH₄ ⁺-N] and nitrate nitrogen [NO₃ ^--N]). This was to determine the best composting conditions to ensure the maximum quality on the composts obtained with the minimum ammonium losses. A central composite experimental design was used to obtain the neural fuzzy model for each dependent variable. These models, consisting of the four independent process variables, were found to accurately describe the composting process (the differences between the experimental values and those estimated by using the equations never exceeded 5–10% of the former). Results of the modeling showed that creating a product with acceptable chemical properties (pH, NH₄ ⁺-N and NO₃ ^--N) entails operating at medium moisture content (55%) and medium to high particle size (3–5 cm). Moderate to low aeration (0.2 L air/min · kg) would be the best compromise to compost this residue because of the scant statistical influence of this independent variable.     

Neural network approach for modelling ammonia emission after manure application on the field

This paper presents a neural network approach, which enables one to simulate ammonia emission after manure application on the field. Based on the data from 227 experiments out of previously published research, it can be illustrated that the time course of accumulated ammonia emission follows a non-linear Michaelis–Menten-like function. This function is determined by the two parameters E_max and K_M, which are dependent on manure-specific driving forces, application parameters and climate. 102 data sets of the 227 experiments showed sufficient data for training and validating neural networks for estimating E_max and K_M. The neural networks could be trained to R² values of 0.926 and 0.832 for the training set and the validation set of E_max, and to R² values of 0.988 for the training set and 0.527 for the validation set of the K_M-value, respectively.     

Forecasting Daily Source Air Quality Using Multivariate Statistical Analysis and Radial Basis Function Networks

Abstract

It is vital to forecast gas and particle matter concentrations and emission rates (GPCER) from livestock production facilities to assess the impact of airborne pollutants on human health, ecological environment, and global warming. Modeling source air quality is a complex process because of abundant nonlinear interactions between GPCER and other factors. The objective of this study was to introduce statistical methods and radial basis function (RBF) neural network to predict daily source air quality in Iowa swine deep-pit finishing buildings. The results show that four variables (outdoor and indoor temperature, animal units, and ventilation rates) were identified as relative important model inputs using statistical methods. It can be further demonstrated that only two factors, the environment factor and the animal factor, were capable of explaining more than 94% of the total variability after performing principal component analysis. The introduction of fewer uncorrelated variables to the neural network would result in the reduction of the model structure complexity, minimize computation cost, and eliminate model overfitting problems. The obtained results of RBF network prediction were in good agreement with the actual measurements, with values of the correlation coefficient between 0.741 and 0.995 and very low values of systemic performance indexes for all the models. The good results indicated the RBF network could be trained to model these highly nonlinear relationships. Thus, the RBF neural network technology combined with multivariate statistical methods is a promising tool for air pollutant emissions modeling.     

A Review of Recent Reports Dealing with the Greenhouse Effect of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Abstract

A statistical study on the behavior of ground-level O₃ concentration in different regions of a large urban area was carried out, with emphasis on pollutant gas concentrations and meteorological variables. The study was based on data generated by a network of measuring stations distributed throughout the São Paulo Metropolitan Area, in regions with different characteristics of traffic and economic activities. The combined application of principal component analysis and clustering techniques to data collected from 1997 until 2000 has led to the identification of implicit relationships between variables that have been associated with dominant processes related to O₃ formation in different locations. Similarities between different regions of the city have also been detected and associated with local characteristics. The results indicate that the application of such statistical techniques to data collected in large urban areas enables the grouping of different regions according to their behavior in terms of O₃ levels, as well as the identification of dominant processes in each group. These techniques are thus important in the planning of air pollution policies, especially in the case of O₃ , a pollutant that is not directly related to pollution levels alone.     

The use of artificial neural network (ANN) for the prediction and simulation of oil degradation in wastewater by AOP

The application of advanced oxidation process (AOP) in the treatment of wastewater contaminated with oil was investigated in this study. The AOP investigated is the homogeneous photo-Fenton (UV/H₂O₂/Fe⁺²) process. The reaction is influenced by the input concentration of hydrogen peroxide H₂O₂, amount of the iron catalyst Fe⁺², pH, temperature, irradiation time, and concentration of oil in the wastewater. The removal efficiency for the used system at the optimal operational parameters (H₂O₂?=?400 mg/L, Fe⁺²?=?40 mg/L, pH?=?3, irradiation time?=?150 min, and temperature?=?30 °C) for 1,000 mg/L oil load was found to be 72 %. The study examined the implementation of artificial neural network (ANN) for the prediction and simulation of oil degradation in aqueous solution by photo-Fenton process. The multilayered feed-forward networks were trained by using a backpropagation algorithm; a three-layer network with 22 neurons in the hidden layer gave optimal results. The results show that the ANN model can predict the experimental results with high correlation coefficient (R ²?=?0.9949). The sensitivity analysis showed that all studied variables (H₂O₂, Fe⁺², pH, irradiation time, temperature, and oil concentration) have strong effect on the oil degradation. The pH was found to be the most influential parameter with relative importance of 20.6 %.     

T-S模糊神经网络在厌氧反应器预测中的应用

3个厌氧反应器运行稳定后,用三氯甲烷和2、4-二硝基酚作为毒物负荷对它们进行了冲击试验.利用负荷冲击试验所得的数据集建立了T-S模糊神经网络,并用其预测了反应器的容积产气率、挥发性脂肪酸和CH4体积含量.研究结果表明,基于某一反应器建立的T-S模糊神经网络可以很好地预测毒物负荷冲击下该反应器的容积产气率、挥发性脂肪酸和CH4变化规律,实测值与预测值的相关系数均＞0.850;但是基于某一反应器建立的模糊神经网络用来预测其他反应器时,其预测能力较差,预测值和实测值的相关系数基本上＜0.500.     

Neural network forecasting of air pollutants hourly concentrations using optimised temporal averages of meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations

The new method for the forecasting hourly concentrations of air pollutants is presented in the paper. The method was developed for a site in urban residential area in city of Zagreb, Croatia, for four air pollutants (NO₂, O₃, CO and PM₁₀). Meteorological variables and concentrations of the respective pollutant were taken as predictors. A novel approach, based on families of univariate regression models, was employed in selecting the averaging intervals for input variables. For each variable and each averaging period between 1 and 97 h, a separate model was built. By inspecting values of the coefficient of correlation between measured and modelled concentrations, optimal averaging periods for each variable were selected. A new dataset for building the forecasting model was then calculated as temporal moving averages (running means) of former variables. A multi-layer perceptron type of neural networks is used as the forecasting model. Index of agreement, calculated for the entire dataset including the data for model building, ranged from 0.91 to 0.97 for the respective pollutants. As suggested by the analysis of the relative importance of the input variables, different agreements for different pollutants are likely due to different sources and production mechanisms of investigated pollutants. A comparison of the new method with more traditional method, which takes hourly averages of the forecast hour as input variables, showed similar or better performance. The model was developed for the purpose of public-health-oriented air quality forecasting, aiming to use a numerical weather forecast model for the prediction of the part of input data yet unknown at the forecasting time. It is to expect that longer term averages used as inputs in the proposed method will contribute to smaller input errors and the greater accuracy of the model.     

Variation of surface ozone in Campo Grande,Brazil: meteorological effect analysis and prediction

The effect of meteorological variables on surface ozone (O₃) concentrations was analysed based on temporal variation of linear correlation and artificial neural network (ANN) models defined by genetic algorithms (GAs). ANN models were also used to predict the daily average concentration of this air pollutant in Campo Grande, Brazil. Three methodologies were applied using GAs, two of them considering threshold models. In these models, the variables selected to define different regimes were daily average O₃ concentration, relative humidity and solar radiation. The threshold model that considers two O₃ regimes was the one that correctly describes the effect of important meteorological variables in O₃ behaviour, presenting also a good predictive performance. Solar radiation, relative humidity and rainfall were considered significant for both O₃ regimes; however, wind speed (dispersion effect) was only significant for high concentrations. According to this model, high O₃ concentrations corresponded to high solar radiation, low relative humidity and wind speed. This model showed to be a powerful tool to interpret the O₃ behaviour, being useful to define policy strategies for human health protection regarding air pollution.