PCDD/Fs in ambient air in north-east Italy: The role of a MSWI inside an industrial area

The stack gases of a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI), and ambient air were sampled in four locations around the plant for the analysis of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDDs/Fs). The sampling area was close to an industrial area near Trieste, in north-east Italy. The purpose of the study was to estimate the impact of the MSWI emissions and to distinguish the contribution of these emissions from other potential emission sources in the industrial area.PCDD/F atmospheric concentrations were similar to those generally detected in urban–rural areas with one location about 2–3 times more contaminated than the others. Since the most contaminated location was inside the industrial area but upwind of the MSWI, principal component analysis (PCA) was used to establish whether other sources were the cause. This analysis clearly showed that a local steel plant’s emission was the main source of PCDDs/Fs in ambient air. This study highlights the usefulness of multivariate data analysis such as PCA to identify, among different potential emission sources, the one really responsible for the contamination.     

Congener profiles of PCDD/Fs in soil and vegetation samples collected near to a municipal waste incinerator

Recently, we measured the concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs) in soil and herbage samples collected in the vicinity of a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) from Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain). Since these concentrations could be increased by the presence of other emission sources of PCDD/Fs in the same area in which the MSWI is placed, the main goal of the present study was to determine the PCDD/F congener profiles in the soil and vegetation samples collected in 1996 and again in 1997 near to the facility and to compare with those from samples collected in a close area outside of direct emissions of the plant. From an accurate inspection of the PCDD/F congener profiles, it was concluded that PCDD/F emissions from the MSWI here examined are neither the only nor the main responsible for the presence of PCDD/Fs in the samples of environmental matrices collected in the area under direct influence of the plant.     

PCDD/F concentrations in soil and vegetation in the vicinity of a municipal waste incinerator after a pronounced decrease in the emissions of PCDD/Fs from the facility

Emission of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs) by municipal solid waste incinerators (MSWI) is an issue of great concern. In 1997, an adaptation to the EU legislation on pollutant emissions from the stack was carried out in an MSWI from Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain). As a result, PCDD/F emissions were significantly reduced. The aim of this study was to determine the current levels of PCDD/Fs in soil and vegetation samples collected near the facility and to compare these levels with those obtained in previous surveys (1996 and 1997). In the period 1997-1999, PCDD/F concentrations in vegetation samples were significantly decreased (60%). By contrast, the levels of PCDD/Fs in soil samples increased slightly (14%, P > 0.05) during the same period. An exhaustive analysis of the present data indicates that other emission sources of PCDD/Fs have also a notable environmental impact on the area under direct influence of the MSWI.     

PCDD/PCDF congener profiles in soil and herbage samples collected in the vicinity of a municipal waste incinerator before and after pronounced reductions of PCDD/PCDF emissions from the facility

Congener profiles are the fractional distribution of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs) congeners in an environmental release, or in an environmental or biological sample. In 1999, an adaptation to the EU legislation on pollutant emissions from the stack was carried out in an old municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) from Montcada (Barcelona, Spain). The main goal of the present study was to determine if the environmental PCDD/F levels in the area under direct influence of the facility were mainly due to PCDD/F emissions from the plant. For this purpose, soil and herbage samples were collected near the MSWI before (1998) and after (2000) the technical improvements were performed. PCDD/F congener profiles were determined and compared with those from samples collected in a suburban area of Constantí (Tarragona, Spain) outside of direct emissions from any MSWI. The results of the present study suggest that the MSWI here assessed is not the main responsible for the environmental PCDD/F concentrations in the area under evaluation. Other PCDD/F emission sources in the same area seem also to have a notable impact on the atmospheric levels of these pollutants.     

Influence of a municipal solid waste incinerator on ambient air and soil PCDD/Fs levels

To examine the influence of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) emissions from a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) on the environment, we measured the levels of PCDD/Fs in ambient air and soil samples collected near a MSWI in Bucheon, Korea. The PCDD/Fs concentrations in the ambient air samples ranged from 0.22 to 1.16 pg I-TEQm(-3) (13.39-75.16 pg m(-3)), with an average of 0.66 pg I-TEQ m(-3) (35.62 pg m(-3)). The soil samples contained between 1.25 and 74.98 pg I-TEQ g(-1) (38.15-3,303.33 pg g(-1)), with an average of 19.06 pg I-TEQ g(-1) (1,077.11 pg g(-1)). These levels were higher than those previously reported by other investigators in a number of surveys. The furan homologues predominated in the air samples and some soil samples, and the soil PCDD/Fs levels decreased with increasing distance from the MSWI. Comparison of the homologue patterns and a multivariate statistical analysis showed that PCDD/Fs emission from the MSWI directly affected the pattern of PCDD/Fs in air, while the PCDD/Fs patterns in soil differed according to the location relative to the MSWI, roads, and construction sites. These results collectively indicate that the MSWI was the major PCDD/Fs emission source in this area, but that unidentified combustion sources and vehicles might influence the environment to some extent.     

Levels of PCDD/FS in ambient air and soil in the vicinity of a municipal solid waste incinerator in Hsinchu

Levels of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) were determined in twenty-one ambient air samples, eight soil samples and two stack gas samples, collected near or in a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) in Hsinchu, Taiwan. A systematic decrease of PCDD/Fs in the ambient air from the northeastern area was observed. PCDD/Fs levels measured in the ambient air range from 0.058 to 0.127 pg-TEQ/m3. Higher PCDD/Fs levels in the ambient air were found during winter. In addition, PCDD/Fs levels measured in the soil range from 0.524 to 5.02 pg-TEQ/g d.m. Principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) did not provide sufficient evidence that the environmental PCDD/Fs contamination was caused by emissions from the Hsinchu MSWI. An unknown PCDD/Fs source was proposed using congener profile analysis and supported by both PCA and HCA.     

Assessment of PCDD/F risk after implementation of emission reduction at a MSWI

Municipal solid waste incinerators (MSWIs) have been shown to be important sources of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs). The emission of PCDD/Fs by MSWIs is a controversial subject in human health risk assessment. In this study the effect of a MSWI on a residential area was assessed before and after the installation of an additional treatment system for flue gas. This additional treatment system resulted in a dramatic decrease in PCDD/F concentrations in stack flue gas samples by 99.98%, while the concentrations in air decreased by approximately 50% (36,500 and 0.75 pg I-TEQ m(-3) for air in 1999; 3.5 and 0.38 pg I-TEQ m(-3) in 2002; 1.6 and 0.076 pg I-TEQ m(-3) in 2005 for stack gas and air, respectively). Considering the congener distributions of PCDD/Fs between stack flue gas and air samples, the study area seemed to have been contaminated by other urban sources as well as the MSWI. ISC3 model results support the conclusion that this incinerator became only a minor contributor to the study area after installation of the supplementary systems. This resulted from both proper MSWI operation using modern technology and additional sources of contaminants in this region. Finally, PCDD/F uptake by humans through inhalation of contaminated air was estimated. Assuming that inhalation exposure contributes 10% of total exposure, total exposure was lower than WHO guidelines. These results confirm that proper operation and maintenance of the incinerator led to a reduction in emissions and potential health impacts of PCDD/Fs.     

Air-vegetation transfer of PCDD/PCDFs: an assessment of field data and implications for modeling

This study was designed to evaluate soil and air (gas and particle) transfer of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) to vegetation in residential and industrial areas. In a first part, soil-vegetation transfer was assessed. The levels of PCDD/Fs in 120 soil and 120 herbage samples collected from 1996 to 2002 in an industrial area of Montcada (Barcelona, Spain), near a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI), were determined. Some additional individual samples were also evaluated. It was concluded that high soil concentrations, which are not at steady state with the air layer above it, show a tendency for PCDD/Fs to escape via volatilization. In a second part of the study, air-vegetation transfer was examined. PCDD/F concentrations from 24 herbage samples were used, while PCDD/F concentrations were also measured in seven high-volume air samples and seven passive air-vapor samples. Scavenging coefficients (m3 air "sampled"/g grass d.m.) ranged from 1.9 to 11.3 m3/g. A good trend with K(OA) was observed for PCDDs (R=0.82), while it was lower for PCDFs (R=0.55). The current results corroborate that PCDD/F concentrations in vegetation are associated with atmospheric deposition. For the highest substituted PCDD/F congeners, the air-particle uptake from plants is the principal pathway. In regions impacted by combustion emission sources, PCDD/F gas-particle partitioning is influenced by a higher concentration of particles in the air. Particles and associated particle-bound PCDD/Fs would sorb to leaf surfaces, and are subject to removal via wash off. However, in areas where emissions to air are not very notable, vapor absorption would be the principal source of vegetation pollution. The results of this investigation can have a potential interest in risk assessment studies and environmental fate models.     

Influence of start-up on PCDD/F emission of incinerators

This study aims to evaluate the influence of start-up on polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) concentration in the stack flue gas of incinerators and its contributing PCDD/F emission. The PCDD/F emission of the first sample among three consecutive stack flue gas samples of five intermittent incinerators, which sampled at a stable combustion condition after start-up, is 2-3 times higher than the mean of the others. For verifying the PCDD/F characteristics of incinerators during start-up, one continuous MSWI was investigated for two years. The elevated PCDD/F emissions of the MSWI during start-up could reach 96.9 ng I-TEQN m(-3) and still maintained a high PCDD/F emission (40 times higher than the Taiwan emission limit) even 18 h after the injection of activated carbon, indicating the memory effect. Taking the MSWI for example, which consists of four incinerators, the estimated annual PCDD/F emission from normal operational conditions was 0.112 g I-TEQ. However, one start-up procedure can generate approximately 60% of the PCDD/F emissions for one whole year of normal operations. And the PCDD/F emission, which is the result of the start-ups of four incinerators, was at least two times larger than that of a whole year's normal operations, without consideration for the PCDD/F emission contributed by the long lasting memory effect.     

Assessment of the emission of PCDD/Fs and dioxin-like PCBs from an industrial area over a nearby town using a selective wind direction sampling device

The development of new sampling devices or strategies to assess the concentration of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment has increased in the last two decades. In this study, a selective sampling device was used to evaluate the impact of potential local sources of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin and dibenzofuran (PCDD/Fs) and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyl (dl-PCBs) emissions on the ambient air levels of such compounds in a town near an important industrial estate. Average concentrations of target compounds of up to 2.5 times for PCDD/Fs and 2 times for dl-PCBs were found to come from the industrial state confirming this area as the main responsible for the majority of such compounds reaching the town.This finding was supported by a PCDD/F and dl-PCB sample profile analysis and a principal component analysis (PCA), which established a direct link between the dioxin-like compounds found in the samples collected in the town and their source.     

Air concentrations of PCDD/Fs, PCBs and PCNs using active and passive air samplers

The concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs) were determined in air samples collected at four sampling sites located in two zones of Barcelona (Spain): near a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) and a combined cycle power plant (3 sites), and at a background/control site. Samples were collected using high-volume active samplers. Moreover, 4 PUF passive samplers were deployed at the same sampling points during three months. For PCDD/Fs, total WHO-TEQ values were 27.3 and 10.9 fg WHO-TEQm(-3) at the urban/industrial and the background sites, respectively. The sum of 7 PCB congeners and the Sigma PCN levels were also higher at the industrial site than at the background site. In order to compare active and passive sampling, the accumulated amounts of PCDD/Fs, PCBs and PCNs in the four passive air samplers, as well as the total toxic equivalents in each sampling site were also determined. To assess the use of PUF passive samplers as a complementary tool for PCDD/F, PCB and PCN monitoring, sampling rates were calculated in accordance with the theory of passive air samplers. PUF disks allowed establishing differences among zones for the POP levels, showing that they can be a suitable method to determine POP concentrations in air in areas with various potential emission sources. Although both particle and gas phase were sorbed by the PUFs, data of gas phase congeners are more reproducible.     

Source identification of PCDD/Fs in agricultural soils near to a Chinese MSWI plant through isomer-specific data analysis

Isomer-specific data were investigated in order to identify the sources of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) in agricultural soils, including Fluvo-aquic and paddy soils, in the vicinity of a Chinese municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) plant. Homologue and isomer profiles of PCDD/Fs in soils were compared with those of potential sources, including combustion sources, i.e., MSWI flue gas and fly ash; and the impurities in agrochemicals, such as the pentachlorophenol (PCP), sodium pentachlorophenate (PCP-Na) and 1,3,5-trichloro-2-(4-nitrophenoxy) benzene (CNP). The results showed that the PCDD/F isomer profiles of combustion sources and agricultural soils were very similar, especially for PCDFs, although their homologue profiles varied, indicating that all the isomers within each homologue behave identically in the air and soil. Moreover, factor analysis of the isomer compositions among 33 soil samples revealed that the contamination of PCDD/Fs in agricultural soils near the MSWI plant were primarily influenced by the combustion sources, followed by the PCP/PCP-Na and CNP sources. This implication is consistent with our previous findings based on chemometric analysis of homologue profiles of soil and flue gas samples, and identifies PCP/PCP-Na as an additional important source of PCDD/Fs in the local area. This makes the similarities and differences of isomer profiles between Fluvo-aquic and paddy soils more explainable. It is, therefore, advisable to use isomer-specific data for PCDD/F source identifications where possible.     

Modeling the atmospheric transport and deposition of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans in North America

The atmospheric fate of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) was simulated for the year 2000 in North America using a SMOKE/CMAQ-based chemical transport model that was modified for this purpose. The 1999 USEPA emission inventories of PCDD/Fs and criteria pollutants were used. The 1995 Canadian emission inventory of criteria pollutants and the 1995 Canadian area source emissions for PCDD/Fs were used with the 2000 Canadian point source emissions. Modifications to CMAQ involved coupling it with dual organic matter (OM) absorption and black carbon (BC) adsorption models to calculate PCDD/F gas–particle partitioning. The model satisfactorily reproduced the particle bound fractions at all rural sites for which there were measured data and across the whole domain, the modeled vs. measured differences in particle bound fractions were less than 20% for nearly all congeners. The model predicted ambient air PCDD/F concentrations were also consistent with measurements. Simulated deposition fluxes were within 58% of direct measurements. PCDD/F atmospheric depositions to each of the Great Lakes were estimated for the year 2000. The results indicate that approximately 76% of the total deposition of PCDD/Fs to the Great Lakes (in W-TEQ, or toxic equivalent units as defined by the World Health Organization) is attributed to PCDD/Fs absorbed into OM in aerosol. For all of the lakes, more than 92% of all deposition is particle phase wet deposition and only 5–8% is particle phase dry deposition. Wet deposition from the gas phase is negligible. Of the 17 toxic PCDD/F congeners, the Cl_4–5DD/F compounds contribute approximately 70% to the total atmospheric deposition to the Great Lakes. The seasonal changes in the PCDD/F deposition flux track variations in ambient temperature.     

Evaluation of the Spanish hot dip galvanising sector as a source of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans

A survey to estimate the polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) emissions of Spanish hot dip galvanising sector was carried out during 2002. This investigation is the first presenting Spanish experimental data related to this industrial sector. Three different matrices: flue gas, ash and filter dust were tested to quantify the PCDD/Fs generated during the galvanising process. The organic source of PCDD/F formation could be from the insufficient degreasing o from inhibitors or additives used in the pickling steps such as quinoline, isoquinoline, 8-methylquinoline or polyether phosphoric acid. Low levels PCDD/Fs were achieved in air emissions when air control devices are used. On the contrary, filter dusts are highly contaminated; indicating that the absence of air control devices would increase the risk of fugitive emissions. Homologue profiles and Principal Component Analysis demonstrate there are differences in the formation mechanisms in the bath zone (ashes) compared to the stack location (filter dusts and air emissions), related to the de novo synthesis and reaction time. The annual PCDD/F emission to the atmosphere for this sector during 2002 has been estimated in 0.023g I-TEQ. The emission factor of plants with air control devices has been calculated at 0.030microg I-TEQ/ton of galvanised steel.     

Air and soil dioxin levels at three sites in Italy in proximity to MSW incineration plants

Levels of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDF) in both air and soil samples were measured at three different sites in Italy, in proximity to three municipal solid waste incinerators (MSWIs) to determine baseline contamination and the contributory role of incinerator emissions. At the first site, located in an agricultural, cattle-breeding, typically flattish area of the Po Valley, the dioxin concentrations had already been measured before the start-up of the new MSWI. These dioxin concentrations were then again measured after two years of continual operation of the incinerator. Despite the presence of the plant, the PCDD/Fs concentrations appear not to have been affected and were found to be in a range of 22-125 fg I-TEQ m(-3) in the air samples and 0.7-1.5 pg I-TEQ g(-1) in the soil samples. The second site is located in an industrial district of the Veneto Region, in the surroundings of an old MSWI that is not equipped with Best Available Technology (BAT) dioxin removal system. The PCDD/Fs concentrations in the air samples were between 144 and 337 fg I-TEQ m(-3). This is a typical range of values for industrial areas, while the soil samples showed contamination levels between 1.1 and 1.4 pg I-TEQ g(-1). The third site lies in the Adige Valley, near a MSWI that has been equipped with BAT for flue gas cleaning. The observed values ranged from 10 to 67 fg I-TEQ m(-3) for the air samples and 0.08-1.2 pg I-TEQ g(-1) for the soil samples. The contributory factors of the varying characteristics of the different areas together with the types of technology adopted at each MSWI plant are discussed. The PCDD/Fs levels are subsequently compared with established values from previous studies.     

Environmental impact of a new hazardous waste incinerator in Catalonia,Spain: PCDD/PCDF levels in herbage samples

In April 1996 and 1998, the concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDF) were determined in 40 herbage samples collected in the neighborhood of a hazardous waste incinerator (HWI) under construction in Constanti (Catalonia, Spain). In April 2000, 20 months after the HWI began operating, herbage samples were again collected at the same sampling points in which samples had been taken in the previous surveys. PCDD/F concentrations ranged between 0.13 and 0.65 ng I-TEQ/kg (dry matter), with a median and mean values of 0.29 and 0.32 ng I-TEQ/kg (dry matter), respectively. The results were compared with those obtained in the 1996 (median, 0.53 ng I-TEQ/kg; mean, 0.61 ng I-TEQ/kg) and the 1998 (median, 0.23 ng I-TEQ/kg; mean, 0.31 ng I-TEQ/kg) surveys. While in the period 1996-1998 a significant decrease (49%, P < 0.001) in the mean PCDD/F levels was noted, in the period 1998-2000 an increase of 3% (P > 0.05) was found in the concentrations of PCDD/Fs. The analysis of the results suggests two potential hypotheses: either the emissions of PCDD/Fs from the HWI are not negligible, or the current PCDD/F emissions from other sources near the HWI remained at similar levels to those reached in 1998. Anyhow, an exhaustive evaluation of the present data shows an absence of notable PCDD/F contamination by the HWI in the area under its direct influence. It seems also probable that the decline in the atmospheric levels of PCDD/Fs due other emission sources of PCDD/Fs in this area is currently stopped.     

Evaluation of atmospheric sources of PCDD/Fs, PCBs and PBDEs around a steel industrial complex in northeast China using passive air samplers

The concern about emissions of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) from steel industrial parks has increased in the past decades. In this study, polyurethane foam (PUF)-disk based passive air samples were collected in and around a big steel industrial park of Anshan, Northeast China from June 2008 to March 2009. The levels, seasonal variations and potential sources of PCDD/Fs, PCBs and PBDEs in the atmosphere around the steel industrial complex were investigated, and potential contribution of these three groups of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) from iron and steel production was also assessed. The air concentrations of ∑₁₇PCDD/Fs (summer: 0.02-2.77 pg m⁻³; winter: 0.20-9.79 pg m⁻³), ∑₁₉PCBs (summer: 23.5-155.8 pg m⁻³; winter: 14.6-81.3 pg m⁻³) and ∑₁₃PBDEs (summer: 2.91-10.7 pg m⁻³; winter: 1.10-3.89 pg m⁻³) in this targeted industrial park were relatively low in comparison to other studies, which implied that the industrial activities of iron and steel had not resulted in serious contamination to the ambient air in this area. On the whole, the air concentrations of PCDD/Fs in winter were higher than those of summer, whereas the concentrations of PCBs and PBDEs showed opposite trends. The result from principal component analysis indicated that coal combustion might be the main contributor of PCDD/F sources in this area.     

Sources of dioxins in the United Kingdom: the steel industry and other sources

Several countries have compiled national inventories of dioxin (polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin [PCDD] and polychlorinated dibenzofuran [PCDF]) releases that detail annual mass emission estimates for regulated sources. High temperature processes, such as commercial waste incineration and iron ore sintering used in the production of iron and steel, have been identified as point sources of dioxins. Other important releases of dioxins are from various diffuse sources such as bonfire burning and domestic heating. The PCDD/F inventory for emissions to air in the UK has decreased significantly from 1995 to 1998 because of reduced emissions from waste incinerators which now generally operate at waste gas stack emissions of 1 ng I-TEQ/Nm3 or below. The iron ore sintering process is the only noteworthy source of PCDD/Fs at integrated iron and steelworks operated by Corus (formerly British Steel plc) in the UK. The mean waste gas stack PCDD/F concentration for this process is 1,2 ng I-TEQ/Nm3 based on 94 measurements and it has been estimated that this results in an annual mass release of approximately 38 g I-TEQ per annum. Diffuse sources now form a major contribution to the UK inventory as PCDD/Fs from regulated sources have decreased, for example, the annual celebration of Bonfire Night on 5th November in the UK causes an estimated release of 30 g I-TEQ, similar to that emitted by five sinter plants in the UK.     

The use of Monte-Carlo simulation techniques for risk assessment: study of a municipal waste incinerator

The incremental lifetime risks due to polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) for the residents living in the surroundings of a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) have been assessed. Two different pathways of exposure to PCDD/Fs, ingestion through the diet and exposure from MSWI emissions, were compared. Monte-Carlo simulations were carried out to obtain variability and uncertainty propagation The joint analysis of uncertainty and variability included a sensitivity analysis that identified the contribution to variance by different inputs. In general terms, PCDD/F ingestion through the diet contributed with more than 99% of the total risk, whereas direct exposition to PCDD/F emissions from the MSWI was less than 1% The results show that the median (50% percentile) of non-carcinogenic risk due to PCDD/Fs in the population living in the surroundings of the MSWI was 0.72 and the ratio of the 95th percentile and fifth percentile was about 2. With respect to the total carcinogenic risk, the median increment in individual lifetime was 7.90 x 10(-5) while the ratio between the 95th percentile and the fifth percentile was about 1.5. In this analysis, a sequential structural decomposition of the relationships between the input variables has been used to partition the variance in the output (risk) in order to identify the most influential contributors to overall variance among them.