Parameter precision in the HBV-NP model and impacts on nitrogen scenario simulations in the Rönneå river, southern Sweden

The HBV-NP model is a newly developed water quality model that describes the turnover and fluxes of both nitrogen and phosphorous. It is based on the conceptual precipitation/runoff HBV model. The HBV-NP model was applied for simulation of nitrogen for the R?nne? catchment in southern Sweden. The catchment was divided into 64 subcatchments in the model. Discharge measurements from six stations and nitrogen measurements from 12 stations were used in the calibration of parameters in the model. Eight automatic calibrations were performed with different combinations of time periods, objective functions, and levels of the nitrogen load in the model. A regionally extended interpretation of the Nash-Sutcliffe R2 criterion was used in the calibration. In the evaluation of the criterion, the errors were summed over both time steps and sampling points. Scenario simulations of combined measures for reduction of nitrogen load into the sea by 30% were thereafter performed with the eight sets of parameters established by calibration. The model parameters were not uniquely defined by the calibration. However, the simulated relative reduction of nitrogen load into the sea was relatively insensitive to the choice of parameter set, given the available input sources, variables, and data.     

An actor game on implementation of environmental quality standards for nitrogen in a Swedish agricultural catchment

Despite political efforts, diffuse pollution from agriculture continues to be the single largest source of nitrogen (N) emissions into the aquatic environment in many countries and regions. This fact, and the recent enactment of a new Swedish environmental code, led to the design of a study targeted at the evaluation of new N pollution abatement strategies. An actor game was chosen as the key component of the study, with a focus on four major goals: to test the implementability of legally binding environmental quality standards for nitrate concentration in groundwater and N transport to the sea, to find sets of agriculturally feasible and cost-effective measures to decrease N loads, to investigate the possibilities for collective action through negotiated and institutionalized actor cooperation, and to investigate the role of mathematical modeling in environmental N management. Characteristics from the agriculturally dominated catchment of Genevads?n (224 km2) on the southwest coast of Sweden served as the playing field for the actor game. The most noteworthy result from the study was that it appeared to be possible to meet ambitious environmental N standards with less economically drastic measures than anticipated by most of the participants. The actor game was shown to be a good method for learning about the new Swedish environmental code and its application and for gaining deeper insight into the issues of N management. In addition, the actor game functioned as an arena for gaining a more thorough understanding of the views of different stakeholders.     

Climate change impact on water quality: model results from southern Sweden

Starting from six regional climate change scenarios, nitrogen leaching from arable-soil, water discharge, and nitrogen retention was modeled in the R?nne? catchment. Additionally, biological response was modeled in the eutrophic Lake Ringsj?n. The results are compared with similar studies on other catchments. All scenarios gave similar impact on water quality but varied in quantities. However, one scenario resulted in a different transport pattern due to less-pronounced seasonal variations in the hydrology. On average, the study shows that, in a future climate, we might expect: i) increased concentrations of nitrogen in the arable root zone (+50%) and in the river (+13%); ii) increased annual load of nitrogen from land to sea (+22%) due to more pronounced winter high flow; moreover, remote areas in the catchment may start to contribute to the outlet load; iii) radical changes in lake biochemistry with increased concentrations of total phosphorus (+50%), total nitrogen (+20%), and planktonic algae such as cyanobacteria (+80%).     

Reduction of Baltic Sea Nutrient Inputs and Allocation of Abatement Costs Within the Baltic Sea Catchment

The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) requires tools to simulate effects and costs of various nutrient abatement strategies. Hierarchically connected databases and models of the entire catchment have been created to allow decision makers to view scenarios via the decision support system NEST. Increased intensity in agriculture in transient countries would result in increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, particularly from Poland, the Baltic States, and Russia. Nutrient retentions are high, which means that the nutrient reduction goals of 135 000 tons N and 15 000 tons P, as formulated in the BSAP from 2007, correspond to a reduction in nutrient loadings to watersheds by 675 000 tons N and 158 000 tons P. A cost-minimization model was used to allocate nutrient reductions to measures and countries where the costs for reducing loads are low. The minimum annual cost to meet BSAP basin targets is estimated to 4.7 billion €.     

Estimating reduction of nitrogen leaching from arable land and the related costs

The EU Water Framework Directive will require river-basin management plans in order to achieve good ecological status and find the most cost-efficient nitrogen (N) leaching abatement measures. Detailed scenario calculations based on modeling methods will be valuable in this regard. This paper describes the approach and an application with a coefficient method based on the simulation model SOILNDB for quantification of N leaching from arable land and for prediction of the effect of abatement scenarios for the R?nne? catchment (1900 km2) in southern Sweden. Cost calculations for the different measures were also performed. The results indicate that the individual measures-cover crop and spring plowing, late termination of ley and fallow, and spring application of manure-would only reduce N leaching by between 5% and 8%. If all measures were combined and winter crops replaced by their corresponding spring variants, a 21% reduction in N leaching would be possible. However, this would require total fulfillment of the suggested measures.     

粉煤灰合成沸石去除城市暴雨径流中氨氮

采用粉煤灰为原料,通过耦合碱熔-两步合成法制得3种合成沸石产品,并以合成沸石制备大粒径的功能填料。通过氨氮吸附速率实验和等温吸附实验探讨了合成沸石及功能填料的氨氮吸附速率和最大吸附容量(Qm),以功能填料构建模拟人工快速渗滤系统,研究其对城市暴雨径流中氨氮的去除效果。结果表明,合成沸石对氨氮的吸附速率极快,5min去除率约达到75%,氨氮最大吸附容量为11.36～16.13 mg/g;功能填料对氨氮的最大吸附容量有所下降,但氨氮吸附速率仍较快,应用于模拟人工快速渗滤系统时能在较高的水力负荷下快速去除城市暴雨径流中的氨氮。碱处理再生法更适于进行合成沸石功能填料原位再生,氨氮吸附容量一次再生率达到67%～87%。     

Socioeconomic Driving Factors of Nitrogen Load from Food Consumption and Preventive Measures

To diagnose environmental nitrogen (N) load from food consumption and to suggest preventive measures, this study identified relationships between nitrogen load from food consumption and driving factors by examining six representative countries and regions for the period 1970–2009 as an example. The logarithmic mean Divisia index technique was used to disassemble nitrogen load growth into four driving factors: population, economic activity, food intensity of the economy, and nitrogen content of food. In all study areas, increased economic activity was the main factor driving nitrogen load increase. The positive effect of population growth was relatively small but not negligible and changes in food intensity had a decreasing effect on nitrogen load. Changes in nitrogen content of food varied between areas. Broad strategies to reduce and mitigate nitrogen loading and decouple nitrogen load from economic growth in both developed and developing countries are suggested.     

Effectiveness in the use of natural gas for the reduction of atmospheric emissions: case study--industrial sector in the metropolitan region of Santiago,Chile

The purpose of this investigation was to quantify the potential of natural gas to reduce emissions from stationary combustion sources by analyzing the case study of the metropolitan region of Santiago, Chile. For such purposes, referential base scenarios have been defined that represent with and without natural gas settings. The method to be applied is an emission estimate based on emission factors. The results for this case study reveal that stationary combustion sources that replaced their fuel reduced particulate matter (PM) emissions by 61%, sulfur oxides (SOx) by 91%, nitrogen oxides (NOx) by 40%, and volatile organic compounds (VOC) by 10%. Carbon monoxide (CO) emissions were reduced by 1%. As a result of this emission reduction, in addition to reductions caused by other factors, such as a shift to cleaner fuels other than natural gas, technological improvements, and sources which are not operative, emission reduction goals set forth by the environmental authorities were broadly exceeded.     

A Load Shifting Model for Air Pollution Control in the Electric Power Industry

Load-shifting, a relatively inexpensive approach to air pollution control, involves transferring the generating load from one power plant to another according to meteorological conditions. In this paper, an atmospheric dispersion model is adapted to estimate the exposure of the urban population to sulfur dioxide from operating the power system in different ways. Then a mathematical model of the power system of a metropolitan area is constructed to determine the reduction in pollution exposure which could be achieved, and the costs involved. As a case study, the application of the model to St. Louis, Missouri, is simulated. Under favorable conditions, load shifting could reduce pollution exposure up to 95%, while increasing the costs of electric power generation by only 4%. The load-shifting model has use not only as an operational control strategy, but also as an analytical tool to evaluate alternative pollution control measures in the electric power industry.     

Closing a Loop: Substance Flow Analysis of Nitrogen and Phosphorus in the Rainbow Trout Production and Domestic Consumption System in Finland

Ongoing eutrophication is changing the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Aquaculture causes relatively small-scale nutrient emissions, but local environmental impact may be considerable. We used substance flow analysis (SFA) to identify and quantify the most significant flows and stocks of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) related to rainbow trout aquaculture in Finland. In 2004–2007, the input of nutrients to the system in the form of fish feed was 829 t N year⁻¹ and 115 t P year⁻¹. Around one-fifth of these nutrients ended up as food for human consumption. Of the primary input, 70% ended up in the Baltic Sea, directly from aquaculture and indirectly through waste management. The nutrient cycle could be closed partially by using local fish instead of imported fish in rainbow trout feed, thus reducing the net load of N and P to a fraction.     

Modeling riverine nutrient transport to the Baltic Sea: a large-scale approach

We developed for the first time a catchment model simulating simultaneously the nutrient land-sea fluxes from all 105 major watersheds within the Baltic Sea drainage area. A consistent modeling approach to all these major watersheds, i.e., a consistent handling of water fluxes (hydrological simulations) and loading functions (emission data), will facilitate a comparison of riverine nutrient transport between Baltic Sea subbasins that differ substantially. Hot spots of riverine emissions, such as from the rivers Vistula, Oder, and Daugava or from the Danish coast, can be easily demonstrated and the comparison between these hot spots, and the relatively unperturbed rivers in the northern catchments show decisionmakers where remedial actions are most effective to improve the environmental state of the Baltic Sea, and, secondly, what percentage reduction of riverine nutrient loads is possible. The relative difference between measured and simulated fluxes during the validation period was generally small. The cumulative deviation (i.e., relative bias) [Sigma(Simulated - Measured)/Sigma Measured x 100 (%)] from monitored water and nutrient fluxes amounted to +8.2% for runoff, to -2.4% for dissolved inorganic nitrogen, to +5.1% for total nitrogen, to +13% for dissolved inorganic phosphorus and to +19% for total phosphorus. Moreover, the model suggests that point sources for total phosphorus compiled by existing pollution load compilations are underestimated because of inconsistencies in calculating effluent loads from municipalities.     

Effectiveness in the Use of Natural Gas for the Reduction of Atmospheric Emissions: Case Study—Industrial Sector in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago,Chile

Abstract

The purpose of this investigation was to quantify the potential of natural gas to reduce emissions from stationary combustion sources by analyzing the case study of the metropolitan region of Santiago, Chile. For such purposes, referential base scenarios have been defined that represent with and without natural gas settings. The method to be applied is an emission estimate based on emission factors. The results for this case study reveal that stationary combustion sources that replaced their fuel reduced particulate matter (PM) emissions by 61%, sulfur oxides (SO_x) by 91%, nitrogen oxides (NO_x) by 40%, and volatile organic compounds (VOC) by 10%. Carbon mon-oxide (CO) emissions were reduced by 1%. As a result of this emission reduction, in addition to reductions caused by other factors, such as a shift to cleaner fuels other than natural gas, technological improvements, and sources which are not operative, emission reduction goals set forth by the environmental authorities were broadly exceeded.     

Tradeoffs between environmental goals and urban development: the case of nitrogen load from the Stockholm County to the Baltic Sea

Urban dwellers depend on the generation of ecosystem services for their welfare. The city of Stockholm is growing, and a 25% increase in population is projected by 2030. The effects of urban development were estimated through the quantification of nitrogen (N) leakage to the Baltic Sea under two urban development scenarios. We found that total net N load will increase by 6% or 8%, depending on which growth scenario is applied, and population increase by itself will contribute at least 15% of the point source N leakage. Technical improvements in sewage treatment could, according to our results, decrease total N load to the Baltic Sea by 4%. Based on our results, we conclude that proactive measures such as spatial urban planning can provide a constructive tool for sustainable urban development on regional as well as national and international scales, depending on geographical context as well as the ecosystem services' scale of operation.     

A practical demonstration in modelling diclofenac and propranolol river water concentrations using a GIS hydrology model in a rural UK catchment

An existing GIS hydrology water quality model, LF2000-WQX, was applied to predict the concentrations of the pharmaceuticals diclofenac and propranalol in catchments. As a practical exercise the predominantly rural Tamar (UK) catchment was chosen. Consumption, excretion, and fate data were used to estimate the pharmaceutical input load for the model. The predicted concentrations throughout most of the catchment were 1 ng/L or less under low flow (90th percentile) conditions. However, at a few locations, downstream of small sewage treatment plants, concentrations above 25 ng/L were predicted. This exercise shows that it is relatively straightforward to predict the concentrations of new and emerging organic microcontaminants in real catchments using existing GIS hydrology water quality models. Further testing will be required to establish their accuracy.     

Distributed,high-resolution modelling of critical source areas for erosion and phosphorus losses

Phosphorus losses from arable land need to be reduced to prevent eutrophication of surrounding waters. Owing to the high spatial variability of P losses, cost-effective countermeasures need to target parts of the catchment that are most susceptible to P losses. Field surveys identified critical source areas for overland flow and erosion amounting to only 0.4–2.6 % of total arable land in four different catchments in southern Sweden. Distributed modelling using high-resolution digital elevation data identified 72–96 % of these observed erosion and overland flow features. The modelling results were also successfully used to predict occurrence of overland flow and rill and gully erosion in a catchment in central Sweden. Such exact high-resolution modelling allows for accurate placement of planned countermeasures. However, current legislative and environmental subsidy programmes need to change their approach from income-loss compensation to rewarding high cost effectiveness of implemented countermeasures.     

Export of nitrogen from catchments: a worldwide analysis

This study reviews nitrogen export rates from 946 rivers of the world to determine the influence of quantitative (runoff, rainfall, inhabitant density, catchment area, percentage of land use cover, airborne deposition, fertilizer input) and qualitative (dominant type of forest, occurrence of stagnant waterbodies, dominant land use, occurrence of point sources, runoff type) environmental factors on nitrogen fluxes. All fractions (total, nitrate, ammonia, dissolved organic and particulate organic) of nitrogen export showed a left-skewed distribution, which suggests a relatively pristine condition for most systems. Total nitrogen export showed the highest variability whereas total organic nitrogen export comprised the dominant fraction of export. Nitrogen export rates were only weakly explained by our qualitative and quantitative environmental variables. Our study suggests that the consideration of spatial and temporal scales is important for predicting nitrogen export rates using simple and easy-to-get environmental variables. Regionally based modelling approaches prove more useful than global-scale analyses.     

Pesticide modelling for a small catchment using SWAT-2000

Pesticides in stream flow from the 142 ha Colworth catchment in Bedfordshire, UK were monitored from October 1999 to December 2000. About 47% of the catchment is tile-drained and different pesticides and cropping patterns have recently been evaluated in terms of their effect on nutrient and pesticide losses to the stream. The data from Colworth were used to test soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) 2000 predictions of pesticide concentrations at the catchment outlet. A sound model set-up to carry out pesticide modelling was created by means of hydrological modelling with proper simulation of crop growth and evapotranspiration. The pesticides terbuthylazine, terbutryn, cyanazine and bentazone were modelled. There was close agreement between SWAT-predicted pesticide concentration values and observations. Scenario trials were conducted to explore management options for reducing pesticide loads arriving at the catchment outlet. The results obtained indicate that SWAT can be used as a tool to understand pesticide behavior at the catchment scale.     

Use of modeling to protect,plan, and manage water resources in catchment areas

The degradation of water resources by diffuse pollution, mainly due to nitrate and pesticides, is an important matter for public health. Restoration of the quality of natural water catchments by focusing on their catchment areas is therefore a national priority in France. To consider catchment areas as homogeneous and to expend an equal effort on the entire area inevitably leads to a waste of time and money, and restorative actions may not be as efficient as intended. The variability of the pedological and geological properties of the area is actually an opportunity to invest effort on smaller areas, simply because every action is not equally efficient on every kind of pedological or geological surface. Using this approach, it is possible to invest in a few selected zones that will be efficient in terms of environmental results. The contributive hydraulic areas (CHA) concept is different from that of the catchment area. Because the transport of most of the mobile and persistent pollutants is primarily driven by water circulation, the concept of the CHA is based on the water pathway from the surface of the soil in the catchment area to the well. The method uses a three-dimensional hydrogeological model of surface and groundwater integrated with a geographic information system called Watermodel. The model calculates the contribution (m³/h or %) of each point of the soil to the total flow pumped in a well. Application of this model, partially funded by the Seine Normandy Basin Agency, to the catchment of the Dormelles Well in the Cretaceous chalk aquifer in the Orvanne valley, France (catchment area of 23,000 ha at Dormelles, county 77), shows that 95 % of the water pumped at the Dormelles Well comes from only 26 % of the total surface area of the catchment. Consequently, an action plan to protect the water resource will be targeted at the 93 farmers operating in this source area rather than the total number of farmers (250) across the entire 23,000 ha. Another model, developed from Epiclès© software, permits the calculation of the under-root nitrate concentrations for each field based on soil type, climate, and farming practices. When the Watermodel and Epiclès© are coupled, nitrate transfers from the soil to the catchment and the river can be modeled. In this study, the initial pollution due to the actual farming practices was simulated and we were also able to estimate the efficiency of the agronomic action plan by testing several scenarios and calculating the time needed to reach the target nitrate concentration in the well.     

Modelling the long-term soil response to atmospheric deposition at intensively monitored forest plots in Europe

The dynamic soil chemistry model SMART was applied to 121 intensive forest monitoring plots (mainly located in western and northern Europe) for which both element input (deposition) and element concentrations in the soil solution were available. After calibration of poorly known parameters, the model accurately simulated soil solution concentrations for most plots as indicated by goodness-of-fit measures, although some of the intra-annual variation especially in nitrate and aluminium concentrations could not be reproduced. Model evaluations of two emission-deposition scenarios (current legislation and maximum feasible reductions) for the period 1970-2030 show a strong reduction in sulphate concentrations between 1980 and 2000 in the soil due to the high reductions in sulphur emissions. However, current legislation hardly reduces future nitrogen concentrations, whereas maximum feasible reductions reduces them by more than half. Maximum feasible reductions are also more effective in increasing pH and reducing aluminium concentrations, mostly below ‘critical’ values.     

Pesticide Modelling for a Small Catchment Using SWAT-2000

Pesticides in stream flow from the 142 ha Colworth catchment in Bedfordshire, UK were monitored from October 1999 to December 2000. About 47% of the catchment is tile-drained and different pesticides and cropping patterns have recently been evaluated in terms of their effect on nutrient and pesticide losses to the stream. The data from Colworth were used to test soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) 2000 predictions of pesticide concentrations at the catchment outlet. A sound model set-up to carry out pesticide modelling was created by means of hydrological modelling with proper simulation of crop growth and evapotranspiration. The pesticides terbuthylazine, terbutryn, cyanazine and bentazone were modelled. There was close agreement between SWAT-predicted pesticide concentration values and observations. Scenario trials were conducted to explore management options for reducing pesticide loads arriving at the catchment outlet. The results obtained indicate that SWAT can be used as a tool to understand pesticide behavior at the catchment scale.