全球及中国海海平面变化研究进展

回顾了当前海平面变化研究的成果,总结了全球1993～2003年间海平面及比容海平面变化趋势分别在2.8 mm/a、1.2 mm/a左右,在北半球具有显著的季节变化,海水比容变化对海平面变化有决定性的影响.1950～2003年间全球比容海平面的上升速率为0.3 mm/a.东中国海近10 a的海平面和比容海平面的趋势变化分别为4.93 mm/a、3.18 mm/a,其中盐比容对总比容的贡献远远大于全球尺度上盐比容的贡献,在季节尺度上,比容效应是海平面面变化的主导因素,在年际尺度上,具有准2 a的周期,主要受黑潮和长江径流的影响.南海的海平面和比容海平面的上升速率分别为4.7 mm/a、 4.2 mm/a,比容海平面的位相比T/P海平面大约提前2个月,年际变化和ENSO高度相关.并提出气候变化的模拟以及区域性海平面的研究是未来海平面研究发展的主要方向.     

海洋局:中国海平面上升速率高于全球平均水平

<正>2015年2月28日,国家海洋局发布《2014年中国海洋灾害公报》和《2014年中国海平面公报》.自1980年至2014年,中国沿海海平面总体呈波动上升趋势,上升速率为3.0mm/a,高于全球平均水平.去年为34年来第二高位,较常年高111mm.《公报》显示,1980年至2014年,中国沿海海平面变化总体呈现波动上升趋势.海平面上升速率为3.0mm/a,高于     

1993—2018年中国沿海海平面异常升高的时空格局特征及潜在社会经济风险估计

全球变暖诱发海平面上升是当前陆海作用领域的热点议题。应用卫星高度计观测海平面异常（SLA）数据,结合共享社会经济路径情景（SSP_S）,探讨我国沿海地区1993—2018年海平面异常升高的时空格局特征及潜在社会经济风险。结果显示：（1）过去26年间,我国沿海年均海平面和极端海平面均呈波动上升趋势,变化速率分别达到3.47±0.50 mm/a和4.74±1.39 mm/a。（2）空间上,我国四大海区上升速率由高到低排序为：东海>黄海>渤海>南海;省域尺度上,苏、闽、浙的海平面增速较大,而粤、沪、台的海平面上升速率较慢。（3）MK检验和Sen趋势分析显示,整个海区的年均海平面全部呈显著增加趋势,其中84.16%的区域处于增速中等偏慢水平,2.32%的区域增速快;而极端海平面中显著增加区域占76%,其中59.65%的区域增速慢,2.31%的区域增速快;无显著减少区域。（4）空间波动性上,我国历年海平面变化整体处于较低的波动水平;其中,较低波动区占61.31%,而高波动与较高波动区仅占到3.17%。（5）到2100年,我国海平面上升高度将达到71.71±19.01 cm;在三种共享社会经济发展路径下（SSP₁、SSP₂和SSP₃）,我国沿海地区潜在经济损失将达10万~21万亿元人民币（2005年可比价）,受影响人口数达350万~550万人;其中,广东省水淹面积最大（占到省份陆域总面积的0.7%）,经济和人口风险也最高。因此,减缓和应对海平面上升风险,是21世纪我国沿海地区保持经济社会、资源环境可持续发展的重要命题。     

海平面上升对广东近岸海域环境影响研究

全球气候变暖会引起海平面上升,已有研究表明,广东沿海海平面上升量最大,上升速度为2.19 mm/a。本文根据张锦文对广东沿海的海平面上升估计值,研究了广东沿海到2030年、2050年和2100年时由海平面上升造成的海岸滨线后退和海岸面积损失的影响,并进一步分析了海平面上升对广东近岸海域红树林、海草和湿地生态系的影响。     

碳达峰、碳中和助力美好未来

正从19世纪开始,大气中的温室气体(如二氧化碳等)不断增加,使地球持续变暖。联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)预测,到2100年,全球平均气温将比工业化前上升1.6-4℃。温升达到1.5℃时,气候危机就会威胁到人类的生存,因为作为吸收热能主力的海洋,温度会持续升高,导致海平面上升;而温升达到2℃时,极地冰川和冰层的融化几乎无法逆转,将会加剧海平面的上升。根据研究统计,如果把冰盖消融的效应计算在内,到2100年,海平面将会上升80-150cm,这将会导致数以亿计的人口被海平面上升波及,因沿海低海拔地区被淹没而不得不向内陆迁徙。我们面临的问题还远不止于此。1980年以来,     

宁波市地下水位动态与地面沉降预测分析

为了准确预测分析宁波市地下水位动态与地面沉降的发展趋势,建立了宁波市第四纪松散沉积层孔隙地下水流三维数值模拟模型和地面沉降与地下水位多元线性回归模型,预测了2009年底到2020年底的逐月地下水位动态和逐年地面沉降量的变化特征。结果表明,从2013年起,除山区沟谷孔隙潜水地下水位降落漏斗逐渐扩大外,其余孔隙水的地下水流场基本趋于稳定,地下水位年际变化很小,年地面沉降量也逐渐变小,由2012年的5.62mm/a逐渐下降到2020年的5.54mm/a,由地下水位下降引起的地面沉降基本得到控制。     

1948~2016年全球主要气象要素演变特征

采用M-K趋势检验与R/S分析法,探究了近70a全球全年及各季节的降水、气温、蒸发量的演变特征与空间分布格局.研究发现：（1）1948~2016年间,全球72.7%地区的降水呈现出非显著的上升或下降趋势,全球总降水量呈现上升趋势,趋势率为1.9mm/10a;全球气温呈现显著性、持续的上升趋势,趋势率为0.23℃/10a,1980年后气温上升速率变快;1980~2016年间全球蒸发量在大部分地区呈现上升趋势,总蒸发量的变化趋势率为8.2mm/10a;Hurst指数显示气温与蒸发变化的持续性明显大于降水量的变化;（2）降水量在北半球高纬地区多呈现出非常显著的增加趋势,在低纬度地区多呈现波动或下降趋势,且在12月~次年5月（DJF、MAM）的上升趋势的显著性普遍高于其他两个季节;气温在DJF和MAM的上升趋势相对微弱,中高纬地区呈现非显著性的变化趋势,亚洲中部部分地区在JJA呈现出显著性的下降趋势;蒸发量在沿海湿润地区的上升趋势显著,美洲北部在DJF呈现出显著下降的趋势,格陵兰岛、尼罗河流域在一年四季均为下降趋势;（3）各大洲的气温在1948~2016年均呈现出显著的上升趋势,其中北美洲的平均上升率最高;降水除非洲外均为上升趋势,非洲地区的降水量呈现出下降趋势,南美洲降水呈现出3个阶段的下降趋势;各大洲的蒸发量均呈现上升趋势,其中欧洲的平均上升率最高;除大洋洲外,各大洲降水量的上升速率低于蒸发量的上升速率.     

报告称过去130年来全球平均升温0.85℃

正从1880~2012年,全球地表平均温度升高了0.85℃,其中北半球高于南半球,冬半年升温高于夏半年.这是记者从中国气象局11月24日召开的IPCC(政府间气候变化专门委员会)第五次评估报告综合宣讲会上获悉的.根据这份报告,近百年全球气候变暖体现在全球气温升高、海洋变暖、冰雪大范围融化、海平面持续上升等诸多方面.1880~2012年,全球地表平均气温大约上升了0.85℃.在北半球,1983~2012年可能是过去1400年中最暖的30     

1901—2014年黄土高原区域气候变化时空分布特征

气候变化对黄土高原地区环境与经济影响重大,研究其在小地理尺度上的时空变化趋势对该区应对全球气候变化制定适应性策略有重要意义。论文基于CRU 1901—2014年逐月气候数据集,利用Delta空间降尺度方法对该数据集在黄土高原地区进行降尺度处理并评价,最后采用距平、Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Sen’s斜率估计方法分析该区历史时期气候变化的时空分布特征。结果表明：1）使用Delta法将分辨率为0.5°×0.5°的月降水量和月均温数据降尺度到分辨率为1 km×1 km的网格上是可行的,其中线性插值法最适合该区降尺度过程。2）1901—2014年该区年降水量年际变化趋势不显著,但年均温以0.1 ℃/10 a的速率显著上升;与气候平均值相比,20世纪60年代为相对湿冷期,80年代以后为相对干暖期;年降水量在该区西部地区（面积占3.05%）以0.24 mm/10 a~3.52 mm/10 a的速率显著增加,年均温在西部以外地区（面积占91.30%）以0.02 ℃/10 a~0.17 ℃/10 a的速率由西南向东北显著上升。3）1981—2010年黄土高原西部地区（面积占92.02%）相比气候平均值变干变暖,西部以外地区（面积占7.98%）变湿变暖;年降水量只在民和及其以南极少数地区（面积占0.05%）以17.25 mm/10 a~27.93 mm/10 a的速率显著增加,年均温在西部以外地区（面积占87.61%）以0.23 ℃/10 a~0.71 ℃/10 a的速率显著上升。上述研究结果可为该区在制定应对全球气候变化策略时提供科学依据。     

三江源区潜在蒸散时空分异特征及气候归因

地面潜在蒸散变化对水分循环与能量平衡的研究具有重要意义。论文利用青藏高原三江源区18 个气象台站的月、年气象资料,基于FAO Penman-Monteith 公式和通过修订的辐射计算模型,估算了该地区的潜在蒸散量,分析了1961—2012 年三江源潜在蒸散的空间分布和时间演变,探讨了影响该区域潜在蒸散时空分异的主导因子,主要结论如下:三江源地区多年平均潜在蒸散的范围在732.0~961.1 mm之间,平均为836.9 mm。分布格局为东北、西南高,中部低。夏秋季与全年的潜在蒸散分布格局相似;1961—2012 年,三江源地区年平均潜在蒸散整体上以0.69 mm/a 的速率增加,年潜在蒸散的增加主要体现在夏季,以0.17 mm/a 的速率上升,其余季节变化不明显;相对湿度、最高气温和年总辐射的差异导致了年潜在蒸散的空间分布差异,三者贡献率分别为59.8%、22.2%、14.4%;最高气温的上升、总辐射的增加和相对湿度的降低是三江源地区年潜在蒸散呈增加趋势的主要原因,三者贡献率分别为56.9%、35.6%、2.7%,影响年潜在蒸散的因子组合和贡献率在不同区域有一定差异。年潜在蒸散影响因子中风速影响较小,是三江源地区潜在蒸散变化有别于国内其他地区的特征之一。     

Sea-Level Rise: Implications for Water Resources Management

Globally, sea level has been rising for more than the last one hundred years, and is expected to do so into the foreseeable future, and at an accelerating rate. The direct influences of sea-level rise on water resources come principally from the following: new or accelerated coastal erosion; more extensive coastal inundation and higher levels of sea flooding; increases in the landward reach of sea waves and storm surges; seawater intrusion into surface waters and coastal aquifers; and further encroachment of tidal waters into estuaries and coastal river systems. The impacts of sea-level rise are likely to be felt disproportionately in certain areas, reflecting both natural and socio-economic factors that enhance the levels of risks. The opportunity to learn about the likely nature of, and most appropriate adaptation to, the anticipated impacts of sea-level rise on water resources is arguably best developed in rapidly subsiding coastal areas, and especially in low-lying deltas where subsidence rates are typically much larger than the historic rise in global mean sea level. Significantly, such areas are often major centres of population and of economic activity, thereby highlighting the human dimensions of sea-level rise. Sound management of the risks to water resources associated with sea-level rise requires enhancing adaptive capacity, mainstreaming adaptation, harmonizing responses to extreme events, variability and long-term change and strengthening regional and international cooperation and coordination. In this regard, the policies and initiatives of international organisations are not always entirely consistent with the needs of developing countries.     

The Nile delta-Alexandria coast: vulnerability to sea-level rise,consequences and adaptation

Like many delta systems, the coastal zoneof the Nile delta has been designated as avulnerable zone to a rising sea level as aconsequence of expected climate changescombined with geological and human factors.In view of the understanding of thesefactors, a degree of vulnerabilityanalysis has been carried out to betterlocate which sectors need to be assessedand adapted to possible sea level rise(SLR) for the Nile delta-Alexandria region of Egypt.Results reveal that not all of the coastalzones of the Nile delta are vulnerable toaccelerated sea-level rise at the samelevel. Based on multiple criteria the Niledelta-Alexandria coast can be categorizedinto vulnerable (30%), invulnerable (55%)and artificially protected coastalstretches (15%). These criteria include:local subsidence or uplifting, relativesea-level rise (RSLR), land topography,width of lagoon barriers, beach-face slope,high-elevated features such as dunes andridges, eroding and accreting coastlinesand protection works.Moreover, this study evaluates thelong-term relative sea-level rise andsubsidence rates along the Nile delta andAlexandria coasts. Statistical analysis oflong-term tide gauge data recorded atAlexandria, Burullus and Port Said yieldsvalues of 1.6, 1.0 and 2.2 mm/yr,respectively. These values of relativesea-level rise and long-term subsidencerate obtained from age-dated sediment coresections are inconsistent: long-termsubsidence appears to be larger (maximum of7 mm/ yr). This discrepancy might beexplained if the subsidence is episodic,and occurs rather abruptly during majorearthquakes that occur every few hundredyears associated with fault trend lines.Rising sea levels could have significantlongterm impacts on the Nile delta,including the distribution of ground watersalinity and erosion of the narrow andlow-lying barriers of the Burullus andManzala lagoons. Adaptive measures alongthe study area particularly those relatedto coastal protective structures are alsoevaluated.     

A discussion of the potential impacts of climate change on the shorelines of the Northeastern USA

An increase in the rate of sea-level rise and potential changes in storminess represent important components of global climate change that will likely affect the extensive coasts of the Northeastern USA. Raising sea level not only increases the likelihood of coastal flooding, but changes the template for waves and tides to sculpt the coast, which can lead to land loss orders of magnitude greater than that from direct inundation alone. There is little question that sea-level rise, and in particular an increased rate of rise, will result in permanent losses of coastal land. However, quantitative predictions of these future coastal change remains difficult due in part to the complexity of coastal systems and the influence of infrequent storm events, and is further confounded by coastal science’s insufficient understanding of the behavior of coastal systems over decadal timescales. Recently, dramatic improvements in technology have greatly improved our capabilities to investigate and characterize processes and sedimentary deposits in the coastal zone, allowing us, for the first time, to address some of the over-arching problems involved in shoreline change. Despite advances in many areas of coastal geology, our fundamental understanding of shoreline change has been limited by a lack of a broad and integrated scientific focus, a lack of resources, and a lack of willingness on the part of policymakers who make crucial decisions about human activity along the coast to support basic research in this area. Although quantitative predictions remain constrained, there remains little doubt that the predicted climates changes will have profound effects upon the Northeastern coast.     

Modern sea level changes of the Eastern China Seas and their influences on coastal areas

The statistics of tidal gauging records showed that the mean sea level of the China Seas has risen for 14 cm in past 100 years. The annual mean sea levels of the Eastern China Seas have been rising at a speed of about 0.21 -0.23 cm/a since 1960. The annual mean sea levels of the Eastern China Seas in 1989 were 1.45 cm higher than that in 1988 on average.The sea level rise may cause the damage of the dynamical balance of the natural environments in the coastal area? and form or strengthen many coastal disasters, such as storm-tide catastrophic events, sea water invasion landward, soil salinization in coastal lowland and plains, and beach erosion retreat.     

基于数学模型的海平面上升对咸潮上溯的影响

气候变化导致的海平面上升对沿海地区构成极大的威胁,海平面上升已经成为全球重要的环境问题,受到社会各界的高度重视。研究建立了一维动态潮流-含氯度数学模型,计算了海平面上升对咸潮上溯的影响,结果显示:250 mg/L的咸度线随着上游来水频率的增大,咸潮上溯距离明显增大;一定上游来水条件下,随着海平面的上升,咸潮上溯界线向上游方向移动显著。并详细计算了代表口门在海平面上升10 cm、30 cm和60 cm的情况下,咸潮界线的具体上移距离,以期给三角洲地区城市供水、农业灌溉引水等提供理论指导,减轻海平面上升危害,以确保21世纪中国沿海地区资源、环境、经济和社会的可持续发展。     

近40 年苏北海岸线时空动态变迁分析

海岸线对海平面上升、海岸侵蚀、港湾淤积、湿地生态资源和近海海域环境等具有重要指示作用。利用遥感（remote sensing, RS）和地理信息系统（geographic information system, GIS）技术获取苏北海岸在1978年至2018年5期海岸线数据,对海岸线长度变化、岸线速率变化以及岸线类型转变进行分析,并以河口为分界点对岸线变迁特征分段分析。结果表明:（1）40 年间研究区岸线总长度大致呈现递减趋势,岸线类型变化较为明显,随时间推移人工岸线和自然岸线分别表现为增长和削弱的趋势。（2）研究区在1978年至2018年,海岸线向海域推进速率远大于海岸线向陆域推进速率。（3）1978年至1988年,射阳河口至新阳港口之间的海岸线推进速率最为明显,主要以自然淤长的方式向海域推进,岸线平均端点速率（end point rate, EPR）为281.4 m/a;在1988至1998年,新阳港口到斗龙港口之间岸线推进速率最为明显,主要以自然淤长方式向海域推进,平均EPR为535.5 m/a;在1998年至2008年,斗龙港口到大丰港口之间岸线推进速率最为明显,主要以人工围垦方式向海域推进,平均EPR为502.1 m/a;在2008年至2018年,梁垛河口到方塘河口之间岸线推进速率最为明显,主要以人工围垦方式向海域推进,平均EPR为347.7 m/a。     

海平面上升对山东沿渤海湾地区百年一遇风暴潮淹没范围的影响预测

为了预防和减轻未来海平面上升所造成的淹没对山东沿渤海湾地区的影响,本文采用IPCC全球平均海平面上升数据、沿渤海湾地区地壳垂直运动数据、东风港潮位数据预测2100年100 a一遇的潮位线数据,并借助数字高程模型(DEM)、地理信息系统(GIS)预测海平面上升对潮位线位置的影响。研究结果为:(1)表达2100年潮位线位置的数据;(2)与2000年相比,2100年100 a一遇风暴潮增加的淹没区的空间分布图;(3)与2000年相比,2100年100 a一遇风暴潮增加的淹没区面积和向陆推进距离。预测结果表明:(1)2100年淹没范围随海平面上升幅度增加而增加;(2)相对于2000年,2100年新增的淹没区主要分布于研究区的中西部地区;(3)新增淹没地区人口、工业、农、林、牧、渔业将受到严重影响。     

Vulnerability assessment and adaptation to the impacts of sea level rise on the Kingdom of Bahrain

This paper assesses quantitatively the impact of sea level rise (SLR) at the global and regional scale as a result of climate change (CC) on the coastal areas of the Kingdom of Bahrain’s islands (36 Islands). The standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines was modified as appropriate for the situation of the study area. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) coupled with Remote Sensing (RS) were used as the main techniques of collecting, analyzing, modeling simulating and disseminating information to build SLR scenarios in a geographically referenced context. Also, these tools were used to assess vulnerability and risk of the coastal area of the islands with the expectation that coastal planner and government authorities will profit from integrating these knowledge into a broad based environmental decision making. Three SLR scenarios: low, moderate and high were developed to examine the impacts from SLR on all islands. The low SLR scenario (Optimistic) assumes a 0.5-m rise above current sea level, the moderate scenario (Intermediate) assumes a one meter rise, and the high scenario (Pessimistic) assumes a 1.5 m rise in sea level. Two more SLR scenarios were assumed to perform risk analysis, a 2 and 5 meter rise above current sea level. The simulation of SLR are quite straightforward, emphasizing on the uses of both of the data that are incorporated from the satellite images and the created Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to estimate SLR scenarios that are adapted in the study. These data were used to predict consequences of the possibility of the rise in sea level at different scenarios which may alter the landuse and patterns of human communities. Results indicate that low-lying coastal areas of Bahrain islands are at risk from the effects of any SLR resulting from CC. These islands are vulnerable under different SLR Scenarios. More than 17% of the country total area may be inundated under 1.5 m SLR in 2100. The total area that might be lost under different sea level scenarios will vary from more than 77 km² if SLR reaches 0.5 m, to about 100 km² under 1.0 m SLR and may reach 124 km² under 1.5 m SLR scenario. The total inundated areas due to risk scenarios will reach 133 km², if the SLR rises to 2.0 m, and it is estimated to be more than (22%) of the main island total area. Under the second scenario, if the SLR reaches 5.0 m, the main islands will lose approximately half of its area (47%) equal to 280 km². Hawar islands group will lose about (30%) of its total area under 2.0 m SLR, which is about 15.5 km².A SLR adaptation policy framework (APF) and adaptation policy initiatives (APIs) are suggested for planners to build upon for reducing the likely effects of SLR in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The framework is composed of four steps namely, acquisition of information, planning and design, implementation and monitoring and evaluation. A general policy framework for a national response to SLR is suggested. Additionally, a range of policy adaptation options/initiatives to sustain coastal developments under the likely effects of SLR are recommended.     

The economic impact of substantial sea-level rise

Using the FUND model, an impact assessment is conducted over the 21st century for rises in sea level of up to 2-m/century and a range of socio-economic scenarios downscaled to the national level, including the four SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) storylines. Unlike a traditional impact assessment, this analysis considers impacts after balancing the costs of retreat with the costs of protection, including the effects of coastal squeeze. While the costs of sea-level rise increase with greater rise due to growing damage and protection costs, the model suggests that an optimum response in a benefit-cost sense remains widespread protection of developed coastal areas, as identified in earlier analyses. The socio-economic scenarios are also important in terms of influencing these costs. In terms of the four components of costs considered in FUND, protection dominates, with substantial costs from wetland loss under some scenarios. The regional distribution of costs shows that a few regions experience most of the costs, especially East Asia, North America, Europe and South Asia. Importantly, this analysis suggests that protection is much more likely and rational than is widely assumed, even with a large rise in sea level. This is underpinned by the strong economic growth in all the SRES scenarios: without this growth, the benefits of protection are significantly reduced. It should also be noted that some important limitations to the analysis are discussed, which collectively suggest that protection may not be as widespread as suggested in the FUND results.