Adapting food systems of the Indo-Gangetic plains to global environmental change: key information needs to improve policy formulation

The Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP; including regions of Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh) is generally characterised by fertile soils, favourable climate and an abundant supply of water. Nevertheless, the challenge of increasing food production in the IGP in line with demand grows ever greater; any perturbation in agriculture will considerably affect the food systems of the region and increase the vulnerability of the resource-poor population. Increasing regional production is already complicated by increasing competition for land resources by non-agricultural sectors and by the deterioration of agri-environments and water resources. Global environmental change (GEC), especially changes in climate mean values and variability, will further complicate the agricultural situation and will therefore, have serious implications for food systems of the region. Strategies to reduce the vulnerability of the region's food systems to GEC need to be based on a combination of technical and policy options, and developed in recognition of the concurrent changes in socioeconomic stresses. Adaptation options need to be assessed with regard to their socioeconomic and environmental efficacy, but a greater understanding of the interactions of food systems with GEC is needed to be able to do this with confidence. This paper discusses information needs relating to resource management and policy support to guide the development of research planning for increasing the robustness of IGP food systems to GEC. Further information is needed to develop a range of adaptation strategies including augmenting production and its sustainability, increasing income from agricultural enterprises, diversification from rice–wheat systems, improving land use and natural resource management, and instigating more flexible policies and institutions.     

Adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: options and constraints

Climate change is expected to adversely affect agricultural production in Africa. Because agricultural production remains the main source of income for most rural communities in the region, adaptation of the agricultural sector is imperative to protect the livelihoods of the poor and to ensure food security. A better understanding of farmers’ perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and the decision-making process is important to inform policies aimed at promoting successful adaptation strategies for the agricultural sector. Using data from a survey of 1800 farm households in South Africa and Ethiopia, this study presents the adaptation strategies used by farmers in both countries and analyzes the factors influencing the decision to adapt. We find that the most common adaptation strategies include: use of different crops or crop varieties, planting trees, soil conservation, changing planting dates, and irrigation. However, despite having perceived changes in temperature and rainfall, a large percentage of farmers did not make any adjustments to their farming practices. The main barriers to adaptation cited by farmers were lack of access to credit in South Africa and lack of access to land, information, and credit in Ethiopia. A probit model is used to examine the factors influencing farmers’ decision to adapt to perceived climate changes. Factors influencing farmers’ decision to adapt include wealth, and access to extension, credit, and climate information in Ethiopia; and wealth, government farm support, and access to fertile land and credit in South Africa. Using a pooled dataset, an analysis of the factors affecting the decision to adapt to perceived climate change across both countries reveals that farmers were more likely to adapt if they had access to extension, credit, and land. Food aid, extension services, and information on climate change were found to facilitate adaptation among the poorest farmers. We conclude that policy-makers must create an enabling environment to support adaptation by increasing access to information, credit and markets, and make a particular effort to reach small-scale subsistence farmers, with limited resources to confront climate change.     

The vulnerability context of a savanna area in Mozambique: household drought coping strategies and responses to economic change

In this paper, we investigate the ways in which climate stressors and economic changes related to liberalisation alter the local vulnerability context. Household and key informant data from two villages in Mozambique are analysed. First, we explore how changes such as increased market integration, altered systems of agricultural support, land tenure change and privatisation of agro-industries may affect factors important for response capacity, including access to local natural resources, employment opportunities, and household labour and capital. Next, we investigate how people related to the market while coping with the 2002–2003 drought. The study reveals that there had been an increase in informal trade and casual employment opportunities; however, market relations were very unfavourable and as the drought intensified, smallholders were locked into activities that barely secured economic survival and which sometimes endangered long-term response capacity. Only a few large-scale farmers had the capital and skills necessary to negotiate a good market position in urban markets, thus securing future incomes. Inequality, social sustainability, vulnerability and natural resource use are all closely linked in the savannas. Hence, both climate change adaptation policies and sustainability measures need to target vulnerability context and the social and environmental stressors shaping it.     

Rural vulnerability to environmental change in the irrigated lowlands of Central Asia and options for policy-makers: A review

Climate change, land degradation and drought affect millions of people living in drylands worldwide. With its food security depending almost entirely on irrigated agriculture, Central Asia is one of the arid regions highly vulnerable to water scarcity. Previous research of land and water use in the region has focused on improving water-use efficiency, soil management and identifying technical, institutional and agricultural innovations. However, vulnerability to climate change has rarely been considered, in spite of the imminent risks due to a higher-than-average warming perspective and the predicted melting of glaciers, which will greatly affect the availability of irrigation water. Using the Khorezm region in the irrigated lowlands of northwest Uzbekistan as an example, we identify the local patterns of vulnerability to climate variability and extremes. We look at on-going environmental degradation, water-use inefficiency, and barriers to climate change adaptation and mitigation, and based on an extensive review of research evidence from the region, we present concrete examples of initiatives for building resilience and improving climate risk management. These include improving water use efficiency and changing the cropping patterns that have a high potential to decrease the exposure and sensitivity of rural communities to climate risks. In addition, changes in land use such as the afforestation of degraded croplands, and introducing resource-smart cultivation practices such as conservation agriculture, may strengthen the capacity of farmers and institutions to respond to climate challenges. As these can be out-scaled to similar environments, i.e. the irrigated cotton and wheat growing lowland regions in Central Asia and the Caucasus, these findings may be relevant for regions beyond the immediate geographic area from which it draws its examples.     

农户土地利用对环境压力的适应研究进展

农户视角土地利用对环境压力的适应研究已成为气候变化和持续性科学领域的热点。 文章从适应能力决定因素识别、适应障碍和限制因素诊断、适应的生态环境后果评估三个方面综述了农户土地利用对环境压力的适应研究取得的重要进展;梳理了农户适应环境压力的研究方法：综合指数法、参与式评估法、统计和计量经济模型法、适应的共同管理模型法。基于已有研究的特征和转型适应的需要,提出了有待进一步研究的问题：①构建适应研究的理论框架,为经验研究提供理论支撑;②重视提高农户适应能力的制度政策和农户适应实践的生态环境后果评估,为持续适应提供依据;③跨多层次主体综合考察农户土地利用适应过程机理; ④基于系统论思想、多学科和跨学科知识,以及现有方法论基础,构建涉及多层次利益相关主体的农户土地利用对环境压力的适应共同管理模型,以实现适应的科学的社会治理。     

南方丘陵区农业水资源脆弱性概念与评价

论文旨在探讨中国南方丘陵区农业水资源脆弱性的概念及内涵,构建脆弱性评价指标体系并进行定量评价实证研究。首先,在了解资源环境科学领域有关脆弱性研究相关成果的基础上,结合中国南方丘陵区农业水资源系统的特点,给出了农业水资源脆弱性的概念,并分析了其脆弱性内涵。然后,以衡阳盆地为例构建了一个包括自然脆弱性、人为脆弱性、承载脆弱性3个方面12个具体指标的评价指标体系。最后,运用模糊物元模型对衡阳盆地7个县(市)的农业水资源脆弱度进行评判,发现祁东县、衡阳县、衡南县、衡东县和耒阳市农业水资源脆弱度为强脆弱度等级,常宁市、衡山县为微脆弱等级。经验证,评价结果与评价区水资源脆弱性的实际表现比较吻合。     

Land use and climate change adaptation strategies in Kenya

Climate variability and change mitigation and adaptation policies need to prioritize land users needs at local level because it is at this level that impact is felt most. In order to address the challenge of socio-economic and unique regional geographical setting, a customized methodological framework was developed for application in assessment of climate change vulnerability perception and adaptation options around the East African region. Indicators of climate change and variability most appropriate for the region were derived from focused discussions involving key informants in various sectors of the economy drawn from three East African countries. Using these indicators, a structured questionnaire was developed from which surveys and interviews were done on selected sample of target population of farming communities in the Mt. Kenya region. The key highlights of the questionnaire were vulnerability and adaptation. Data obtained from respondents was standardized and subjected to multivariate and ANOVA analysis. Based on principle component analysis (PCA), two main vulnerability categories were identified namely the social and the bio-physical vulnerability indicators. Analysis of variance using Kruskal-Wallis test showed significant statistical variation (P ≤ 0.05) in the perceived vulnerability across the spatial distribution of the 198 respondents. Three insights were distinguished and were discernible by agro-ecological zones. Different vulnerability profiles and adaptive capacity profiles were generated demonstrating the need for prioritizing adaptation and mitigation efforts at local level. There was a high correlation between the bio-physical and social factor/livelihood variables that were assessed.     

An indicator tool for assessing local vulnerability to climate change in the Mexican agricultural sector

To propose specific adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector based on vulnerability to climate variability and climate change at the local level, we built a vulnerability index using an indicator tool at a fine spatial scale. This index was applied as a case study in the municipality of Guasave, Sinaloa, Mexico, at the basic census area (BCA) level. We used a total of 37 variables organized into three groups with equal weighting: exposure (13), sensitivity (13), and adaptive capacity (11). From the 20 rural BCAs located in the study area, eight were categorized as having very low vulnerability; five had low vulnerability; two had medium vulnerability because of the lack of basic services (sewers, water, and electricity) and a high rural population density; three had high vulnerability due to a high frequency of days with temperatures below 5 °C and the lack of basic services; and two had very high vulnerability, characterized by a high percentage of production units (PUs) with losses due to climate factors, a high rural population density, and a high frequency of days with temperatures below 5 °C. Approximately 50 % of the municipal rural population lives in BCAs vulnerable to climate change. This methodology allowed us to identify the most susceptible agricultural areas at the local level and the variables that require more attention so that we can propose adaptation strategies and minimize vulnerability due to climate change.     

A Method for Constructing a Social Vulnerability Index: An Application to Hurricane Storm Surges in a Developed Country

An important goal of vulnerability assessment is to create an index of overall vulnerability from a suite of indicators. Constructing a vulnerability index raises several problems in the aggregation of these indicators, including the decision of assigning weights to them. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a method of aggregating vulnerability indicators that results in a composite index of vulnerability, but that avoids the problems associated with assigning weights. The investigators apply a technique based on Pareto ranking to a complex, developed socioeconomic landscape exposed to storm surges associated with hurricanes. Indicators of social vulnerability to this hazard are developed and a principal components analysis is performed on proxies for these indicators. Overall social vulnerability is calculated by applying Pareto ranking to these principal components. The paper concludes that it is possible to construct an effective index of vulnerability without weighting the individual vulnerability indicators.     

Two methods to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Mexican agricultural sector

We applied two methods to assess vulnerability to climate change in Mexico’s agricultural sector. The first one was a principal component analysis (PCA) that weighted each variable separately. For the second one, we integrated the variables in a linear array in which all variables were weighted equally, and then, we used the arithmetic sum of the sub-indices of exposure and sensitivity minus the adaptive capacity to obtain the vulnerability index. We discuss the similarities and differences between two methods with respect to municipal-level maps as the outputs. The application of the method for the agricultural sector in Mexico gave us the spatial distribution of the high- and very-high vulnerability categories, which we propose as a tool for policy. The methods agreed that the very-high vulnerability category is present in 39 municipalities. Also we found that 16 % of the total population in the country is located in high-exposure areas. In addition, 41 % lives in municipalities identified as highly-sensitive. In terms of adaptive capacity, 20 % of the population lives in 1273 municipalities with low-adaptive capacity. Finally, we discuss the need for information regarding vulnerability at the national level to guide policies aimed at reducing exposure and sensitivity and increasing adaptive capacity.     

Incorporating stakeholder decision support needs into an integrated regional Earth system model

A new modeling effort exploring the opportunities, constraints, and interactions between mitigation and adaptation at regional scale is utilizing stakeholder engagement in an innovative approach to guide model development and demonstration, including uncertainty characterization, to effectively inform regional decision making. This project, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), employs structured stakeholder interactions and literature reviews to identify the most relevant adaptation and mitigation alternatives and decision criteria for each regional application of the framework. The information is used to identify important model capabilities and to provide a focus for numerical experiments. This paper presents the stakeholder research results from the first iRESM pilot region. The pilot region includes the Great Lakes Basin in the Midwest portion of the United States as well as other contiguous states. This geographic area (14 states in total) permits cohesive modeling of hydrologic systems while also providing strong gradients in climate, demography, land cover/land use, and energy supply and demand. The results from the stakeholder research indicate that, for this region, iRESM should prioritize addressing adaptation alternatives in the water resources, urban infrastructure, and agriculture sectors, including water conservation, expanded water quality monitoring, altered reservoir releases, lowered water intakes, urban infrastructure upgrades, increased electric power reserves in urban areas, and land use management/crop selection changes. For mitigation in this region, the stakeholder research implies that iRESM should focus on policies affecting the penetration of renewable energy technologies, and the costs and effectiveness of energy efficiency, bioenergy production, wind energy, and carbon capture and sequestration.     

Adaptation of Russian agriculture to climatic variability: The role of federal and provincial policies

This paper draws on the example of Tyumen Province, a federal subject of the Russian Federation, to explore the role that policies play in hindering agricultural producers’ adaptation to climate change. Its objective is to contribute to a better understanding of maladaptation at the policy level. The discourse analysis method is used to explain perceptions of climate variability in Tyumen Province and its impact on agriculture. The document analysis method is used to assess agricultural policy in Tyumen Province and its implications for producers’ adaptation to climate change. The results suggest that although agricultural producers and policymakers are acutely aware both of climate variability and the resulting loss of agricultural output, provincial agricultural policy generally fails to encourage better adaptation by agricultural producers or to support their greater economic security. Instead, it primarily focuses on meeting food production targets and thus limits the producers’ own independent moves towards adaptation. The phenomenon of maladaptation at the policy level is discussed in consideration of the general public’s and the authorities’ awareness of climate change and climate variability, and the role of science in shaping this awareness.     

地下水污染风险评价中污染源荷载量化方法的对比分析

地下水污染风险评价是地下水资源保护和地下水污染防治区划的重要基础,其评价体系通常由污染源荷载、地下水脆弱性和地下水价值3个要素构成.由于污染源荷载量化方法的差异,必然存在对污染源基础信息的需求差异,以及对最终评价结果的影响未知等问题.为探讨污染源荷载量化方法对地下水污染风险评价的影响,本文选择具有代表性的评分指数法和定量指数法,以滹沱河冲洪积扇中尺度研究区为例,分别进行污染源荷载量化,耦合叠加相同的地下水脆弱性、地下水价值要素,进行地下水污染风险评价,并作对比分析.结果表明,两种方法得出的污染源荷载量化结果存在较大差异,风险评价的最终结果在风险数值特征及风险级别的空间分布上差异也比较显著,说明污染源荷载量化方法的选择对风险评价结果有重要影响;评分指数法适用于基础信息精度较低的大尺度评价区,方法简单,评价结果可靠性程度略低,定量指数法适用于基础信息精度高的中小尺度评价区,方法略复杂,但评价结果可靠性更高,反映出评价区的尺度效应对方法的选择有重要影响.     

Scale,context, and decision making in agricultural adaptation to climate variability and change

This work presents a framework for viewing agricultural adaptation, emphasizing the multiple spatial and temporal scales on which individuals and institutions process information on changes in their environment. The framework is offered as a means to gain perspective on the role of climate variability and change in agricultural adaptation, and developed for a case study of Australian agriculture. To study adaptation issues at the scale of individual farms we developed a simple modelling framework. The model highlights the decision making element of adaptation in light of uncertainty, and underscores the importance of decision information related to climate variability. Model results show that the assumption of perfect information for farmers systematically overpredicts adaptive performance. The results also suggest that farmers who make tactical planting decisions on the basis of historical climate information are outperformed by those who use even moderately successful seasonal forecast information. Analysis at continental scales highlights the prominent role of the decline in economic operating conditions on Australian agriculture. Examples from segments of the agricultural industry in Australia are given to illustrate the importance of appropriate scale attribution in adapting to environmental changes. In particular, adaptations oriented toward short time scale changes in the farming environment (droughts, market fluctuations) can be limited in their efficacy by constraints imposed by broad changes in the soil/water base and economic environment occuring over longer time scales. The case study also makes the point that adaptation must be defined in reference to some goal, which is ultimately a social and political exercise. Overall, this study highlights the importance of allowing more complexity (limited information, risk aversion, cross-scale interactions, mis-attribution of cause and effect, background context, identification of goals) in representing adaptation processes in climate change studies.     

环境风险全过程评估与管理模式研究及应用

基于环境风险“全过程管理”与“优先管理”的理念,提出了环境风险全过程评估与管理的概念框架和理论体系,涵盖了风险源识别、受体易损性评估、环境风险表征、风险应急控制决策以及风险事故损失后评估等关键步骤.并以某化工园区企业为例,以硝基苯储罐塌陷为初始事件,采用蝴蝶结方法进行风险源识别,得到硝基苯储罐泄漏事件蝴蝶结,通过GIS空间分析方法揭示居民对地表水水源污染易损性的空间分异,分析结果不仅为事故安全防范与应急控制提供关键节点,而且有助于在日常风险管理中增强受体抗风险能力.     

Development projects for small rural communities in the Brazilian Amazon region as potential strategies and practices of climate change adaptation

Climate scenarios for the Amazon region (Brazil) indicate an increase in temperature and a precipitation decrease, affecting society and economic activities, particularly small-scale rural communities. The research aims to identify, describe and evaluate factors present in sustainable development projects for small rural communities (Type- A Demonstration Projects - PDA and Alternatives to Deforestation and Burnt Projects - PADEQ), already implemented, for recognizing its potential use as strategies for adaptation to climate change for small rural communities in the Amazon region. The researches, concerning fifteen projects in Rondonia, Para and Mato Grosso States, were developed through document analysis, technical visits, and interviews with stakeholders of three projects about the community perception, vulnerability and adaptation capacity. The analysis of documents regarding the potential success of the projects highlights their short history, important in the local context, prospects for continuity, and community participation in decision making. Few activities developed in projects could be associated with climate change adaptation practices. Two strategies and practices are the most important: the social organization and the process of awareness and training of the community, and the diversification of the types and forms of agricultural production. The interviews indicate that adaptation is implemented in projects, but without considering the pressures of climate variability and change. While these projects were not planned in the context of climate change, the greatest role of the projects relates to the strengthening of the already existing adaptation capacity, creating good conditions for incorporation of new strategies and adaptation measures, now clearly associated to the objective to reduce the vulnerability to climate change and variability impacts.     

Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: a typology

Adaptation in agriculture to climate change is important for impact andvulnerability assessment and for the development of climate change policy. A wide variety of adaptation options has been proposed as having thepotential to reduce vulnerability of agricultural systems to risks related toclimate change, often in an ad hoc fashion. This paper develops atypology of adaptation to systematically classify and characterize agriculturaladaptation options to climate change, drawing primarily on the Canadiansituation. In particular, it differentiates adaptation options in agricultureaccording to the involvement of different agents (producers, industries,governments); the intent, timing and duration of employment of theadaptation; the form and type of the adaptive measure; and the relationshipto processes already in place to cope with risks associated with climatestresses. A synthesis of research on adaptation options in Canadianagriculture identifies four main categories: (i) technological developments,(ii) government programs and insurance, (iii) farm production practices,and (iv) farm financial management. In addition to these `directadaptations', there are options, particularly information provision, that maystimulate adaptation initiatives. The results reveal that most adaptationoptions are modifications to on-going farm practices and public policydecision-making processes with respect to a suite of changing climatic(including variability and extremes) and non-climatic conditions (political,economic and social). For progress on implementing adaptations to climatechange in agriculture there is a need to better understand the relationshipbetween potential adaptation options and existing farm-level andgovernment decision-making processes and risk management frameworks.     

SAFE—A hierarchical framework for assessing the sustainability of agricultural systems

Sustainable development and the definition of indicators to assess progress towards sustainability have become a high priority in scientific research and on policy agendas. In this paper, we propose a consistent and comprehensive framework of principles, criteria and indicators (PC&I) for sustainability assessment of agricultural systems, referred to as the Sustainability Assessment of Farming and the Environment (SAFE) framework. In addition we formulate consistent and objective approaches for indicator identification and selection. The framework is designed for three spatial levels: the parcel level, the farm level and a higher spatial level that can be the landscape, the region or the state. The SAFE framework is hierarchical as it is composed of principles, criteria, indicators and reference values in a structured way. Principles are related to the multiple functions of the agro-ecosystem, which go clearly beyond the production function alone. The multifunctional character of the agro-ecosystem encompasses the three pillars of sustainability: the environmental, economic and social pillars. Indicators and reference values are the end-products of the framework. They are the operational tools that are used for evaluating the sustainability of the agro-ecosystems. The proposed analytical framework is not intended to find a common solution for sustainability in agriculture as a whole, but to serve as an assessment tool for the identification, the development and the evaluation of agricultural production systems, techniques and policies.     

Climate change vulnerability assessments as catalysts for social learning: four case studies in south-eastern Australia

Technical assessments of vulnerability and/or risk are increasingly being undertaken to assess the impacts of climate change. Underlying this is the belief that they will bring clarity to questions regarding the scale of institutional investments required, plausible adaptation policies and measures, and the timing of their implementation. Despite the perceived importance of technical assessments in 'evidence-based' decision environments, assessments cannot be undertaken independent of values and politics, nor are they capable of eliminating the uncertainty that clouds decision-making on climate adaptation As such, assessments can trigger as many questions as they answer, leaving practitioners and stakeholders to question their value. This paper explores the value of vulnerability/risk assessments in climate change adaptation planning processes as a catalyst for learning in four case studies in Southeastern Australia. Data were collected using qualitative interviews with stakeholders involved in the assessments and analysed using a social learning framework. This analysis revealed that detailed and tangible strategies or actions often do not emerge directly from technical assessments. However, it also revealed that the assessments became important platforms for social learning. In providing these platforms, assessments present opportunities to question initial assumptions, explore multiple framings of an issue, generate new information, and galvanise support for collective actions. This study highlights the need for more explicit recognition and understanding of the important role social learning plays in climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning more broadly.     

A framework for adapting urban forests to climate change

Planting urban trees and expanding urban forest canopy cover are often considered key strategies for reducing climate change impacts in urban areas. However, urban trees and forests can also be vulnerable to climate change through shifts in tree habitat suitability, changes in pests and diseases, and changes in extreme weather events. We developed a three-step framework for urban forest vulnerability assessment and adaptation that scales from regional assessment to local on-the-ground action. We piloted this framework in the Chicago region in 10 locations representing an urban-exurban gradient across a range of socioeconomic capacities. The majority of trees across a seven-county region had low to moderate vulnerability, but many of the least vulnerable species were nonnative invasive species. Urban forests in the 10 pilot locations ranged in vulnerability largely due to differences in economic and organizational adaptive capacity. Adaptation actions selected in these locations tended to focus on increased biodiversity and restoration of natural disturbance regimes. However, adaptation actions in more developed sites also included incorporating new species or cultivars. Lessons learned from the pilot area can be used to inform future efforts in other urban areas.