Climate change impacts on freshwater recreational fishing in the United States

We estimated the biological and economic impacts of climate change on freshwater fisheries in the United States (U.S.). Changes in stream temperatures, flows, and the spatial extent of suitable thermal habitats for fish guilds were modeled for the coterminous U.S. using a range of projected changes in temperature and precipitation caused by increased greenhouse gases (GHGs). Based on modeled shifts in available thermal habitat for fish guilds, we estimated potential economic impacts associated with changes in freshwater recreational fishing using a national-scale economic model of recreational fishing behavior. In general, the spatial distribution of coldwater fisheries is projected to contract, being replaced by warm/cool water and high-thermally tolerant, lower recreational priority (i.e., “rough”) fisheries. Changes in thermal habitat suitability become more pronounced under higher emissions scenarios and at later time periods. Under the highest GHG emissions scenario, by year 2100 habitat for coldwater fisheries is projected to decline by roughly 50 % and be largely confined to mountainous areas in the western U.S. and very limited areas of New England and the Appalachians. The economic model projects a decline in coldwater fishing days ranging from 1.25 million in 2030 to 6.42 million by 2100 and that the total present value of national economic losses to freshwater recreational fishing from 2009 to 2100 could range from $81 million to $6.4 billion, depending on the emissions scenario and the choice of discount rate.     

Modeling potential climate change impacts on the trees of the northeastern United States

We evaluated 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change, and summarized those responses for nine northeastern United States. We modeled and mapped each species individually and show current and potential future distributions for two emission scenarios (A1fi [higher emission] and B1 [lower emission]) and three climate models: the Parallel Climate, the Hadley CM3, and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model. Climate change could have large impacts on suitable habitat for tree species in this region, especially under a high emissions trajectory. Results indicate that while species with potentially increasing areas of suitable habitat in the Northeastern US substantially outnumber those with decreasing areas of habitat, there are key species that show diminishing habitat area: balsam fir (Abies balsamea), paper birch (Betula papyrifera), red spruce (Picea rubens), bigtooth and quaking aspen (Populus grandidentata and P. tremuloides), and black cherry (Prunus serotina). From these results we identified the top 10 losers and gainers for each US state in the region by scenario and emissions trajectory. By combining individual species importance maps and developing assembly rules for various classes, we created maps of potential forest types for the Northeast showing a general loss of the spruce–fir zone with advancing oak–hickory type. Further data, maps, and analysis can be found at http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas.     

Evaluating multiple emission pathways for fixed cumulative carbon dioxide emissions from global-scale socioeconomic perspectives

Recent climate modeling studies have concluded that cumulative carbon emissions determine temperature increase, regardless of emission pathways. Accordingly, the optimal emission pathway can be determined from a socioeconomic standpoint. To access the path dependence of socioeconomic impacts for cumulative carbon emissions, we used a computable general equilibrium model to analyze impacts on major socioeconomic indicators on a global scale for 30–50 pathways with different emission reduction starting years, different subsequent emission pathways, and three different cumulative 2100 emission scenarios (emissions that meet the 2 °C target, the 2 °C target emissions plus 10 %, and emissions producing radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m²). The results show that even with identical cumulative emission figures, the resulting socioeconomic impacts vary by the pathway realized. For the United Nations 2 °C target, for example, (a) the 95 % confidence interval of cumulative global gross domestic product (GDP) is 1355–1363 trillion US dollars (2010–2100, discount rate = 5 %), (b) the cumulative GDP of pathways with later emission reduction starting years grows weaker (5 % significance level), and (c) emissions in 2100 have a moderate negative correlation with cumulative GDP. These results suggest that GDP loss is minimized with pathways with earlier emission reduction followed by more moderate reduction rates to achieve lower emission levels. Consequently, we suggest an early emission peak to meet the stringent target. In our model setting, it is desirable for emissions to peak by 2020 to reduce mitigation cost and by 2030 at the latest to meet the 2 °C target.     

Hibernation in Malagasy mouse lemurs as a strategy to counter environmental challenge

The spiny forest of southwestern Madagascar is the driest and most unpredictable region of the island. It is characterized by a pronounced seasonality with high fluctuations in ambient temperature, low availability of food, and a lack of water during the cool dry season and, additionally, by changes in environmental conditions between years. One of the few mammalian species that manages to inhabit this challenging habitat is the reddish-gray mouse lemur (Microcebus griseorufus). The aim of our study was to determine whether this small primate uses continuous hibernation as an energy saving strategy, and if so, to characterize its physiological properties. We measured skin temperature of 16 free-ranging individuals continuously over 3 months during the cool dry season using collar temperature data loggers. Prolonged hibernation was found in three mouse lemurs and was not sex dependent (one male, two females). Skin temperature of hibernating individuals tracked ambient temperature passively with a minimum skin temperature of 6.5°C and fluctuated strongly each day (up to 20°C), depending on the insulation capacity of the hibernacula. Individuals remained in continuous hibernation even at an ambient temperature of 37°C. The animals hibernated continuously during the dry season, and hibernation bouts were only interrupted by short spontaneous arousals. The study emphasizes that hibernation is an important measure to counter environmental challenge for more tropical species than previously thought, including primates. It furthermore provides evidence that tropical hibernation is functionally similar among tropical species.     

GHG emission pathways until 2300 for the 1.5 °C temperature rise target and the mitigation costs achieving the pathways

The Paris Agreement of the 21st Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change refers to the 1.5 °C target as well as the 2 °C target, and it is important to estimate the emission pathways and mitigation measures for the 1.5 °C target for the discussions on the target. The possible emission pathways vary widely because of the uncertainties involved. We assumed three kinds of temperature trajectories for meeting below 1.5 °C compared with the pre-industrial level, and three numbers for the climate sensitivity. The first trajectory remains below 1.5 °C all the time until 2300, the second overshoots but returns to below 1.5 °C by 2100, and the third overshoots but returns to below 1.5 °C by 2300. There are large differences in terms of 2030 emissions between the estimate from the submitted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and any of assessed emission pathways involving climate sensitivity of 3.0 °C or higher, and high emission reduction costs were estimated, even for 2030. With climate sensitivity of 2.5 °C, only the third trajectory exhibits consistent emissions in 2030 with the NDCs. However, this case also appears very difficult to achieve, requiring enormous amounts of negative emissions after the middle of this century toward 2300. A climate mitigation strategy aiming for the 1.5 °C target will be debatable, because we face serious difficulties in near- or/and long-term for all the possible emission pathways, and therefore, we should rather focus on actual emission reduction activities than on the 1.5 °C target with poor feasibility.     

Regional climate change projections for the Northeast USA

Climate projections at relevant temporal and spatial scales are essential to assess potential future climate change impacts on climatologically diverse regions such as the northeast United States. Here, we show how both statistical and dynamical downscaling methods applied to relatively coarse-scale atmosphere-ocean general circulation model output are able to improve simulation of spatial and temporal variability in temperature and precipitation across the region. We then develop high-resolution projections of future climate change across the northeast USA, using IPCC SRES emission scenarios combined with these downscaling methods. The projections show increases in temperature that are larger at higher latitudes and inland, as well as the potential for changing precipitation patterns, particularly along the coast. While the absolute magnitude of change expected over the coming century depends on the sensitivity of the climate system to human forcing, significantly higher increases in temperature and in winter precipitation are expected under a higher as compared to lower scenario of future emissions from human activities.     

基于碳减排目标与排放标准约束情景的火电大气污染物减排潜力

从我国"十四五"及2035年远景目标经济发展预测出发,结合碳减排战略目标下的既有与强化政策情景,基于弹性系数法预测电力需求,测算在不同污染物排放标准约束情景下火电大气污染物排放情况及减排潜力,结果表明,在不同的政策和排放标准约束情景下,我国火电行业烟尘、SO2和NOx排放水平变化呈现出不同的趋势,到2035年,在2016年水平上的减排潜力分别在45.97％～85.37％、52.61％～84.90％和33.80％～71.08％之间,来自碳减排目标下政策因素带来的减排潜力,较不同污染物排放标准约束条件带来的减排潜力更为明显,在强化政策情景下,采取保持模式标准约束的污染物减排潜力已与超低模式基本相当,甚至超过或接近既有政策下采取收严模式标准约束的效果,通过强化实施能源和电力优化政策,加快实现火电发电量达峰,合理引导高污染排放水平火电机组优先退出生产,同样可使火电大气污染物排放得到有效控制,还可避免环保改造投资的浪费和损失.     

低温硝基苯降解菌的筛选及降解特性研究

从被硝基苯污染的某河流底泥中分离到能在低温下生长并能以硝基苯为唯一碳源的7株细菌,其中菌株NB1在温度从2.5～35 ℃范围内时都可以生长并矿化20 mg/L的硝基苯,最适宜的生长温度为25 ℃左右;当培养温度为5 ℃时,该菌株在pH为6～9范围内可以快速降解20 mg/L硝基苯,偏碱性的条件比酸性条件更适合其生长;不超过100 mg/L的硝基苯可以被该细菌完全降解.通过生理生化反应特性、菌体形态以及16S rDNA序列测定结果,确定NB1为恶臭假单胞菌(Pseudomonas putida).不同温度条件,特别是低温下该菌株对硝基苯的快速降解特性为低温环境硝基苯污染的生物修复提供了可能.     

Decomposition of perfluorooctanoic acid by microwaveactivated persulfate: Effects of temperature, pH, and chloride ions

Microwave-hydrothermal treatment of persistent and bioaccumulative perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) in water with persulfate (S₂O₈²⁻) has been found effective. However, applications of this process to effectively remediate PFOA pollution require a better understanding on free-radical scavenging reactions that also take place. The objectives of this study were to investigate the effects of pH (pH = 2.5, 6.6, 8.8, and 10.5), chloride concentrations (0.01–0.15 mol·L⁻¹), and temperature (60°C, 90°C, and 130°C) on persulfate oxidation of PFOA under microwave irradiation. Maximum PFOA degradation occurred at pH 2.5, while little or no degradation at pH 10.5. Lowering system pH resulted in an increase in PFOA degradation rate. Both high pH and chloride concentrations would result in more scavenging of sulfate free radicals and slow down PFOA degradation. When chloride concentrations were less than 0.04 mol·L⁻¹ at 90°C and 0.06 mol·L⁻¹ at 60°C, presence of chloride ions had insignificant impacts on PFOA degradation. However, beyond these concentration levels, PFOA degradation rates reduced significantly with an increase in chloride concentrations, especially under the higher temperature.     

Impacts of climate variability and changes on domestic water use in the Yellow River Basin of China

We present a methodology for using a domestic water use time series that were obtained from Yellow River Conservancy Commission, together with the climatic records from the National Climate Center of China to evaluate the effects of climate variability on water use in the Yellow River Basin. A suit of seven Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were adopted to anticipate future climate patterns in the Yellow River. The historical records showed evidences of rises in temperature and subsequent rises in domestic water demand in the basin. For Upstream of Longyangxia region, the impact was the least, with only 0.0021?×?10⁸ m³ for a temperature increase of 1 °C; while for Longyangxia-Lanzhou region, domestic water use was found to increase to 0.18?×?10⁸ m³ when temperature increases 1 °C. Downstream of Huayuankou was the region with the most changes in temperature that gave the highest increase of 1.95?×?10⁸ m³ in domestic water demand for 1 °C of change of temperature. Downstream of Huayuankou was identified as the most vulnerable area, where domestic water demand increases nearly by 42.2 % with 1 °C increase of temperature. Judging from the trends of temperature range, we concluded that future temperature in Yellow River Basin has an increasing tendency. This could worsen the existing issues of domestic water demand and even more to trigger high competition among different water-using sectors.     

Survival of Coronaviruses in Water and Wastewater

The advent of severe acute respiratory syndrome and its potential environmental transmission indicates the need for more information on the survival of coronavirus in water and wastewater. The survival of representative coronaviruses, feline infectious peritonitis virus, and human coronavirus 229E was determined in filtered and unfiltered tap water (4 and 23°C) and wastewater (23°C). This was compared to poliovirus 1 under the same test conditions. Inactivation of coronaviruses in the test water was highly dependent on temperature, level of organic matter, and presence of antagonistic bacteria. The time required for the virus titer to decrease 99.9% (T_99.9) shows that in tap water, coronaviruses are inactivated faster in water at 23°C (10 days) than in water at 4°C (>100 days). Coronaviruses die off rapidly in wastewater, with T_99.9 values of between 2 and 4 days. Poliovirus survived longer than coronaviruses in all test waters, except the 4°C tap water.     

Impacts of climate change on savannah woodland biomass carbon density and water-use: a modelling study of the Sudanese gum belt region

This paper analyzes potential impacts of climate change on biomass carbon (C) density and water-use (actual evapotranspiration, AET) of savannah woodlands in Sudan. Climate change scenarios were developed from five General Circulation Models (GCMs; CGCM2, CSIRO2, ECHam4, HadCM3 and PCM) under two IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) emission scenarios (A1FI and B1). Baseline (1961-90) climate and climate change scenarios for 2080s for eight map sheet grids (1° latitude x 1.5° longitude) were constructed. Compared to baseline values, mean annual precipitation (MAP) showed both increases (+112 to +221 mm) and decreases (?13 to ?188 mm) but mean annual temperature (MAT) only showed increases (+1.2 to +8.3 °C). Baseline biomass C densities showed an exponential relationship with MAP (y?=?6.798 e ^0.0054x, R²?=?0.70). Depending on climate change MAP, biomass C densities increased (+14 to +241 g C m^?2) or decreased (?1 to ?148 g?C m^?2). However, because of uncertainty in biomass C density estimates, the changes were only significant (P <0.05) for some of the climate change scenarios and for grids with MAP >260 mm. Under A1FI emission scenarios, only HadCM3 did not have a significant effect while under B1 emission scenarios, only CGCM2 and ECHam4 had a significant effect on biomass C density. AET also showed both increases (+100 to +145 mm for vertisols and +82 to +197 mm for arenosols) and decreases (?12 to ?178 mm for vertisols and ?12 to ?132 mm for arenosols). The largest relative changes in AET (up to 31 %) were associated with grids receiving the lowest rainfall. Thus, even if MAP increases across the study region, the increase will have little impact on biomass levels in the driest areas of the region, emphasizing the need for improved management and use of savannah woodlands.     

Potential effects of climate change on birds of the Northeast

We used three approaches to assess potential effects of climate change on birds of the Northeast. First, we created distribution and abundance models for common bird species using climate, elevation, and tree species variables and modeled how bird distributions might change as habitats shift. Second, we assessed potential effects on high-elevation birds, especially Bicknell’s thrush (Catharus bicknelli), that may be particularly vulnerable to climate change, by using statistical associations between climate, spruce-fir forest vegetation and bird survey data. Last, we complemented these projections with an assessment of how habitat quality of a migratory songbird, the black-throated blue warbler (Dendroica caerulescens) might be affected by climate change. Large changes in bird communities of the Northeast are likely to result from climate change, and these changes will be most dramatic under a scenario of continued high emissions. Indeed, high-elevation bird species may currently be at the threshold of critical change with as little as 1°C warming reducing suitable habitat by more than half. Species at mid elevations are likely to experience declines in habitat quality that could affect demography. Although not all species will be affected adversely, some of the Northeast’s iconic species, such as common loon and black-capped chickadee, and some of its most abundant species, including several neotropical migrants, are projected to decline significantly in abundance under all climate change scenarios. No clear mitigation strategies are apparent, as shifts in species’ abundances and ranges will occur across all habitat types and for species with widely differing ecologies.     

Global and regional abatement costs of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and of enhanced action to levels well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C

As part of the Paris climate agreement, countries have submitted (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which includes greenhouse gas reduction proposals beyond 2020. In this paper, we apply the IMAGE integrated assessment model to estimate the annual abatement costs of achieving the NDC reduction targets, and the additional costs if countries would take targets in line with keeping global warming well below 2 °C and “pursue efforts” towards 1.5 °C. We have found that abatement costs are very sensitive to socio-economic assumptions: under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3 (SSP3) assumptions of slow economic growth, rapidly growing population, and high inequality, global abatement costs of achieving the unconditional NDCs are estimated at USD135 billion by 2030, which is more than twice the level as under the more sustainable socio-economic assumptions of SSP1. Furthermore, we project that the additional costs of full implementation of the conditional NDCs are substantial, ranging from 40 to 55 billion USD, depending on socio-economic assumptions. Of the ten major emitting economies, Brazil, Canada and the USA are projected to have the highest cots as share of GDP to implement the conditional NDCs, while the costs for Japan, China, Russia, and India are relatively low. Allowing for emission trading could decrease global costs substantially, by more than half for the unconditional NDCs and almost by half for the conditional NDCs. Finally, the required effort in terms of abatement costs of achieving 2030 emission levels consistent with 2 °C pathways would be at least three times higher than the costs of achieving the conditional NDCs – even though reductions need to be twice as much. For 1.5 °C, the costs would be 5–6 times as high.     

Groundwater-dependent irrigation costs and benefits for adaptation to global change

The effects of a 1.5 °C global change on irrigation costs and carbon emissions in a groundwater-dependent irrigation system were assessed in the northwestern region of Bangladesh and examined at the global scale to determine possible global impacts and propose necessary adaptation measures. Downscaled climate projections were obtained from an ensemble of eight general circulation models (GCMs) for three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 and were used to generate the 1.5 °C warming scenarios. A water balance model was used to estimate irrigation demand, a support vector machine (SVM) model was used to simulate groundwater levels, an energy-use model was used to estimate carbon emissions from the irrigation pump, and a multiple linear regression (MLR) model was used to simulate the irrigation costs. The results showed that groundwater levels would likely drop by only 0.03 to 0.4 m under a 1.5 °C temperature increase, which would result in an increase in irrigation costs and carbon emissions ranging from 11.14 to 148.4 Bangladesh taka (BDT) and 0.3 to 4% CO₂ emissions/ha, respectively, in northwestern Bangladesh. The results indicate that the impacts of climate change on irrigation costs for groundwater-dependent irrigation would be negligible if warming is limited to 1.5 °C; however, increased emissions, up to 4%, from irrigation pumps can have a significant impact on the total emissions from agriculture. This study revealed that similar impacts from irrigation pumps worldwide would result in an increase in carbon emissions by 4.65 to 65.06 thousand tons, based only on emissions from groundwater-dependent rice fields. Restricting groundwater-based irrigation in regions where the groundwater is already vulnerable, improving irrigation efficiency by educating farmers and enhancing pump efficiency by following optimum pumping guidelines can mitigate the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources, increase farmers’ profits, and reduce carbon emissions in regions with groundwater-dependent irrigation.     

A global analysis of residential heating and cooling service demand and cost-effective energy consumption under different climate change scenarios up to 2050

Climate change and energy service demand exert influence on each other through temperature change and greenhouse gas emissions. We have consistently evaluated global residential thermal demand and energy consumption up to the year 2050 under different climate change scenarios. We first constructed energy service demand intensity (energy service demand per household) functions for each of three services (space heating, space cooling, and water heating). The space heating and cooling demand in 2050 in the world as a whole become 2.1–2.3 and 3.8–4.5 times higher than the figures for 2010, whose ranges are originated from different global warming scenarios. Cost-effective residential energy consumption to satisfy service demand until 2050 was analyzed keeping consistency among different socio-economic conditions, ambient temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission pathways using a global energy assessment model. Building shell improvement and fuel fuel-type transition reduce global final energy consumption for residential thermal heating by 30% in 2050 for a 2 °C target scenario. This study demonstrates that climate change affects residential space heating and cooling demand by regions, and their desirable strategies for cost-effective energy consumption depend on the global perspectives on CO₂ emission reduction. Building shell improvement and energy efficiency improvement and fuel fuel-type transition of end-use technologies are considered to be robust measures for residential thermal demand under uncertain future CO₂ emission pathways.     

Conditions controlling the onset of breeding migration of the Japanese mountain stream frog, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Rana sakuraii</Emphasis>

I studied the conditions controlling the timing of breeding migration of the Japanese mountain stream frog Rana sakuraii, an explosive breeder, over 9 years (1992, 1993 and 1999–2005). I analysed two factors: the daily cumulative temperature (DCT) during hibernation and the triggering temperature on the day of migration onset. Frogs hibernated in shallow running water in streams in December. A total of 53,155 breeding migrating adults were captured by traps. Every year, breeding migration was induced by a rise in daily maximum water temperature to about 5°C. However, its date was limited to 1 February at the earliest, and the onset needed a DCT (from 20 January, using 3°C as the threshold for daily effective temperature) of at least about 15°C. Earlier (e.g. in mid- or late January), even if the maximum temperature rose to 5–8°C, migration did not begin. Moreover, even in early February, if the maximum temperature rose to 5°C, if it had been too cold in January and the DCT was low, migration would not begin until mid- or late February. Thus, the earliest date of readiness for migration varied from 1 February to mid-February, depending on the winter DCT. Logistic regression analyses showed that both factors, the DCT and the daily temperature, were significant. I propose that in temperate-zone amphibian explosive breeders, both the passing of an essential number of days and an essential DCT during hibernation are prerequisites for the onset of breeding migration before the daily temperature rises to the threshold.     

Simulating impacts,potential adaptation and vulnerability of maize to climate change in India

Climate change associated global warming, rise in carbon dioxide concentration and uncertainties in precipitation has profound implications on Indian agriculture. Maize (Zea mays L.), the third most important cereal crop in India, has a major role to play in country’s food security. Thus, it is important to analyze the consequence of climate change on maize productivity in major maize producing regions in India and elucidate potential adaptive strategy to minimize the adverse effects. Calibrated and validated InfoCrop-MAIZE model was used for analyzing the impacts of increase in temperature, carbon dioxide (CO₂) and change in rainfall apart from HadCM3 A2a scenario for 2020, 2050 and 2080. The main insights from the analysis are threefold. First, maize yields in monsoon are projected to be adversely affected due to rise in atmospheric temperature; but increased rainfall can partly offset those loses. During winter, maize grain yield is projected to reduced with increase in temperature in two of the regions (Mid Indo-Gangetic Plains or MIGP, and Southern Plateau or SP), but in the Upper Indo-Gangetic Plain (UIGP), where relatively low temperatures prevail during winter, yield increased up to a 2.7°C rise in temperature. Variation in rainfall may not have a major impact on winter yields, as the crop is already well irrigated. Secondly, the spatio-temporal variations in projected changes in temperature and rainfall are likely to lead to differential impacts in the different regions. In particular, monsoon yield is reduced most in SP (up to 35%), winter yield is reduced most in MIGP (up to 55%), while UIGP yields are relatively unaffected. Third, developing new cultivars with growth pattern in changed climate scenarios similar to that of current varieties in present conditions could be an advantageous adaptation strategy for minimizing the vulnerability of maize production in India.     

Counting biodiversity waste in industrial eco-efficiency: fisheries case study

The foundation for the creation of eco-efficiency metrics for industrial impacts on biodiversity is considered. Because biodiversity is the essence of life itself, these metrics are essential for effectiveness in the theory and practice of eco-efficiency, particularly in the case of primary natural resource extraction industries such as fishing and forestry. The case of fishing is examined, with particular attention to by-catch, lost nets, and habitat damage caused by mobile fishing gears. It is appropriate to examine fishing because industrial era impacts on marine biodiversity have been severe and are driving large and deleterious changes in marine ecosystems. For discarded by-catch, it is proposed that an eco-efficient metric for the value per unit mass of discarded fish can be set to be equivalent to that of the market value of the utilized catch. In estimating the eco-efficient value of the catch, the value of the discarded fish is then subtracted from the market value of the catch. Fish killed in lost nets can be treated similarly. It is more difficult to address marine habitat damage by mobile fishing gear, which has the highest potential for ecological injury.By using the approach proposed, negative eco-efficiencies are obtained under circumstances in which the collateral damage to biodiversity exceeds the economic benefit obtained. This is a logical outcome given the long-term effects of biodiversity decline. A metric is also proposed for assessing whether avoidance of harm to biodiversity, in the form of switching fishing gear, is required. Lastly it is proposed that metrics might be developed to provide eco-efficiency credit for companies taking effective actions to improve, or actively participate in, ecosystem-based fisheries management.